Buehrle realistic about Hall of Fame chances

"I don't think I have a chance." -- Mark Buehrle on the Hall of Fame. For the full interview, check out "Inside Look: Mark Buehrle" July 10 at 9:30 pm on Comcast SportsNet.

Buehrle is a lot like Paul Konerko. He's had a great career with the White Sox, won a World Series and had some pretty neat historical moments along the way. 

And, like Konerko, he won't be enshrined in Cooperstown.

Bill James' Hall of Fame monitor (explained here) gives Buehrle a significantly worse chance of making the Hall of Fame than Konerko, who scored a 56 on the scale. A score of 100 means a player is a good bet to make the Hall of Fame. Buehrle's score is 39.

Among the starting pitchers ahead of Buehrle: Jason Schmidt, Tim Hudson, Derek Lowe and Jamie Moyer. Sure, Buehrle's score will improve — in other words, how he's viewed in the eyes of voters will as well — as his career goes on.

But, if we're gauging this by wins (only because others with voting power still do), Buehrle won't come close to a magic number. He sits at 154 right now, meaning 46 more times he'll have to pitch well and pray he gets run support or the bullpen doesn't blow the game (or, conversely, pitch terribly and be bailed out by his offense) to reach 200. If he plays four more seasons, that's about 12 wins per year, which is just a hair below what Buehrle the offense, defense, bullpen and Buehrle have averaged in the last two seasons.

But wins are becoming an increasingly unimportant statistic even in the eyes of the most hardened old-school baseball writer. Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke's Cy Young trophies are fine evidence of the strides being made in pitcher evaluation, even if some still use the archaic W to value a hurler.

Looking beyond Buehrle's wins, he has a career ERA of 3.84, which places him No. 696 on baseball's all-time ERA leaderboard. Just barely below him are names such as Bud Black, Chuck Finley and the illustrious Vinegar Bend Mizell. John Smiley, Al Leiter and the falsely-advertised (although he was from Cairo...Illinois) Egyptian Healy sit just ahead of Buehrle.

If we adjust ERA for era, Buehrle does a lot better. His 119 ERA+ is tied for No. 127 all-time. Warren Spahn and Bob Lemon have the same mark, while Bert Blyleven highlights a slew of Hall-of-Famers below Buehrle on the list. Just ahead of him? Old Hoss Radbourn, at 119.

So, taking into account the steroid/juiced ball/etc. era, Buehrle fairs pretty well in a historical lens. But so does Bret Saberhagen (126). Ditto Carlos Zambrano (125) and Kevin Appier (121). Obviously, ERA isn't everything.

Buehrle never has been a dominant pitcher like, say, Justin Verlander is dominant. He's averaged just over five strikeouts per nine innings over his 12-year career, and that number very well could slip below five if Buehrle continues to pitch deep into his 30's.

His 2.05 walks per nine innings average placed him just outside the top 100 all-time — again, good, but not great.

But here's the real kicker: When Buehrle ends his career, his WAR will place him as a top 100 pitcher in baseball history.

Baseball-Reference has Buehrle at 45 WAR for his career, tied with Wilbur Wood for 102nd all-time. If Buehrle pitches three more seasons (a big 'if'), we give him 1.5 more WAR for 2011 and eight WAR for those final three years, that puts him at 54.5 career WAR.

Which is right in line with Saberhagen's career WAR. Oh well.

If Buehrle can find a way to pitch to 60 WAR, he may be a guy who could receive some support from the geeks behind their computers. That probably won't be Hall of Fame support, instead, it'll probably be more of "hey, Mark Buehrle was better than you think, and he should at least stay on the ballot for a few years."

When Buehrle does decide to retire, though, I have to imagine he'll quickly have his name, face and number up on the left field wall at U.S. Cellular Field. He'll be the last White Sox player to ever wear No. 56, and maybe he'll even get a statue next to Billy Pierce — the last great White Sox left-hander, and one who finished his career with 53.4 WAR.

So even if Buehrle doesn't have a realistic chance at Cooperstown, his lasting legacy in Chicago is certainly a nice consolation prize.

Comments

[ChardSwissnym]

Of the remaining '05 Sox, who do you suspect will get their numbers retired? I think most likely you can count on 14 and 56. Do you think 12 will be on the wall too?

[JRFegan]

We should just open the Hall of Very Good already. Put it in a town with a decent, but not remarkable tourist attraction (Hellooo Travers City, Michigan!), lower the price to make it a solid, but not out of this world value, surround with restaurants that are good, but also chains that aren't particularly unique, and have all the player capsules written by that algorithm that writes game recaps for Big Ten baseball

[JJ -- White Sox Beerleaguer]

CS -- It'll just be 14 and 56. Pierzynski doesn't have the 10+ years of being productive with the Sox that PK and Buehrle do.

James -- I support this idea 100%. Especially the idea of the Northwestern robot writing the bios. It's very good, but lacks anything really interesting. Perfect.

[Buford]

Before the Sox put up one more statue, they need to tear down the statue of Charles Comiskey.

Why is there a statue of a man who (along with the other owners and Commissioner Landis) prevented the integration of the game? Plus he treated his players with such disrespect, especially from a financial perspective, that it planted the seed in them for throwing a World Series. And then he tried to cover up his players' throwing the World Series!

I'm a fan of Jerry Reinsdorf, but he blew it big time with this statue.

[Tom]

Given the events of 2005, the White Sox may need to start thinking about not retiring any more numbers, and consider a ring of honor ala the Toronto Blue Jays. Guys like Buehrle and Konerko easily have earned the right for number retirement based on who is already hanging on the wall, but will only see the Hall of the Very Good. I think before its all over, you could argue similarly for A.J (a perfect example of retired number? no ... but I can't imagine doing nothing for him). Ozzie is another ... I think when it is all said in done, his number being retired might be a small stretch, but adding him to a "Ring of Honor" would be highly appropriate for his combined player/manager accomplishments.

I also agree that melting down the statue of Charlie Comiskey would be a nice touch to make the next concourse statue. I await the team honoring Eddie Collins and Ed Walsh in a meaningful way. How is an 8-time All-Star like Sherm Lollar not honored (9 times in his career, 8 with the Sox). Red Faber won over 250 games for this team, and his name is mentioned nowhere!? Ray Schalk is a South Side native, a Hall of Famer, and was with the team for 17 seasons, and is mentioned nowhere. I applaud the team for recognizing the past, but they still have a way to go.

Another good break down of the situation, JJ.

[justin bieber shoes]

I'm sure I could tweak a bunch of stuff here and there on the logo, but I probably won't ... Once I'm done crappin' around with something, I don't like to go back in. Especially when I'm not making a damn dime to do it.

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