Is Paul Konerko a Hall of Famer?

Ozzie Guillen told reporters Sunday Paul Konerko needs to be in the Hall of Fame. But the King's numbers don't measure up to put him in the conversation for Cooperstown.

Konerko has had a great career with the White Sox—that's not in question. He's belted 381 home runs and should hit No. 400 sometime in the dying embers of 2011. He won the ALCS MVP the year the White Sox won the World Series. His grand slam off Chad Qualls in 2005 stands as one of the most memorable home runs in franchise history. When his contract expires in 2013, he'll have played 15 seasons with the White Sox. That's a great career, worthy of having No. 14 retired and even having a statue placed somewhere around U.S. Cellular Field.

But it won't be worthy of an induction into the Hall of Fame.

At 35, Konerko could have three or four more good offensive years in him. But remember, this is the same Konerko who hit 28 home runs with an .842 OPS in 2009. Despite his recent offensive renaissance, he's still on the precipice of decline in his mid-30's. He needs to hit 119 more home runs to reach the magic number of 500; that seems an unlikely benchmark for Konerko to attain. 

Bill James' Hall of Fame monitor gives Konerko a score of 56, with 100 being the score at which a player begins to have a good chance of induction. Obviously, Konerko still has some time to improve that score, but ahead of Konerko on the list are names such as Adam Dunn (59), Ray Durham (64) and Kenny Lofton (91).

The monitor is designed as a predictor of who would make the Hall of Fame, not who deserves to make it. Or, in other words, Juan Pierre ranks as a 55, one point below Konerko.

But Konerko won't even enter Tim Raines Hall-of-Should-Be-In-Fame territory. Konerko has 24.1 WAR (by Baseball-Reference) in his career, putting him in the same range as such luminaries like Mike Bordick, Manny Sanguillen, Kent Tekulve, Corey Koskie and the awesomely-named High Pockets Kelly and General Crowder.

Fangraphs' WAR agrees with this assessment, putting Konerko's 26.7 WAR in the same range as Delino DeShields, Chris Hoiles, Jay Buhner and Mark Grudzielanek.

Konerko would need to accrue about 25 more WAR over the rest of his career to reach a range in which you start seeing some deserving Hall of Famers. If he plays five more seasons, he'd essentially have to repeat his performance of 2010 in each of them. That would mean Konerko would have to hit 36 home runs at age 40. Don't expect it.

The "clean" reputation Konerko has going for him helps a little, yeah. But Fred McGriff was generally regarded as "clean" and hit 493 home runs. Fred McGriff probably won't make the Hall of Fame (which is a shame, because he was a major league superstar). So why should Konerko, if he ends up hitting 30 or 40 fewer home runs than McGriff in his career?

This is hardly an attempt to disparage the career of Konerko. He's one of the better hitters ever to play in Chicago, and he'll be honored on the South Side as long as baseball and the White Sox are still a thing.

But the argument for Konerko's Hall of Fame chances is a word Hawk Harrelson has used so often on the 374 homers he's hit in Chicago: "STRETCH!"

Comments

[The Wizard]

But what if PK reaches 500 HRs?

[JJ -- White Sox Beerleaguer]

I guess he'd make it if he reaches 500...but I think that's unlikely.

[The Wizard]

If he finishes the year with 400, 500 is just 100 away. If Hermie doesn't retire, I think he has a chance...

[JJ -- White Sox Beerleaguer]

If he finishes the next two seasons with 60 total HR and hits No. 400 this year, he'll have 40 to hit after his age 37 season. That's not impossible, and hell if Herm sticks with him he could conceivably stay healthy to the poInt where he has a chance. But I'm still not banking on it--too much needs to go right late in his career.

[Tom]

I think you summed it up pretty well. Paullie is in the same class as Harold Baines: Hall-of-the Very Good. I appreciate him, and he will always have a special place on the Sou' Side, but his numbers are not Hall worthy.

[JJ -- White Sox Beerleaguer]

Thanks, Tom.

[Nathan]

I don't think Paul Konerko is a Hall of Famer ... yet.

But I don't think that conclusion should be reached by who has comparable WAR to Konerko. If the WAR comparables illustrate anything, it is the unreliability of WAR (although the Jay Buhner comp is a good one).

[John]

Right now I completely agree. I think he could improve to a point where he puts himself into consideration, but for now and probably later, he will be a player that the White Sox fans will remember for a very long time. He is second on my list of favorite Sox players, behind only Frank, and Buehrle is a close third. White Sox Fans should really enjoy what they have, because now-a-day, it is so rare to have such a consistently good hitter for so long in the middle of your lineup.

[Tyrone]

Paul Konerko is a much, much better player than Harold Baines ever was. Bad comparison.

[bobee]

Behind Adam Dunn? Better hitters ever to "play in Chicago"? Condescending and idiot thing to say. Similar to saying "pretty good for a Chicago player." They were World Champs in 2005. He's probably in the top five of hitter in all of baseball currently. He's close to leading the AL in RBI and Homers this year. He'll get to 500 and the Hall of Fame. He's hitting close to .320 the last two years. If he plays to 42 or 43, he'll have 3000 hits.

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