Part of CSNPhilly.com


« Game 30: Freddy Galvis is back in the lineup... | Main | Game 32: Asche starts vs. lefty, while Howard sits »

Tuesday, May 06, 2014

Comments

But he makes some breathtaking catches

MG, I'd certainly include Gwynn in that same list of guys employed by the Phillies that I wouldn't consider "MLB caliber" as well. And therein lies the complexity of the issue - the Phillies do not currently have, on their roster, or in their system, a better alternative. Put it this way - if they Phillies had kept signed Victorino in his FA, and still had Revere on the team, would we be having this discussion? Likely not, as Revere would be relegated to the bench, or further "developing" in AAA. And Victorino, at this point in his career, is essentially a "middle of the pack CF" with flaws of his own.

And that's why Galvis/Nix spots are perplexing, as the Phillies do currently have better options (though, candidly, not significantly better).

I feel like everyone sees the "value" in Revere in that they didn't have to give up any substantial piece in exchange and didn't have to crack open the checkbook. Iceman is right, just because he's cheap doesn't mitigate the fact that he brings very little to the table.

BAP, I consede the BA aspect, but do you rally want a light power, slap-hitting speed guy as one of your options off the bench?

Candidly, my thoughts on Revere are skewed pretty considerably, because for whatever reason I've become fixated on the dynamic that, almost without fail, he comes up in the radio broadcast "home run payoff inning" (usually accompanied by the pitcher's spot preceeding him - a good way to never have to actually payout the $1000 or whatever it is). I mean, it's almost uncanny, since that inning is supposedly determined at random. I'd love to see the frequency of AB's within the HRPI and I'd bet that Revere far and away leads the team since his arrival. Granted I don't play the damn thing (don't really get the Philly Daily News out here in LA...), but I imagine how I'd feel if Franzke proclaimed that Ben Revere would be hitting for me. I'd have rather had the pitcher and I'd happily take my Phillies Phan-Pack (whatever the hell that is).

WP: Sure. A hit is still a good thing, even if it's a single.

Just look at the garbage that has populated our bench over the last few years -- Galvis, Gwynn, the Nixes, Mini-Mart, McDonald, Orr, Bernadina, Casper Wells, Carrera, Frandsen. If we need a late-inning comeback, and the pitcher's spot is coming up, I'd much rather have Revere up at the plate than any of those guys. It isn't even close. For that matter, unless the situation calls for a homerun, I'd rather have Revere at the plate than Mayberry.

"Just look at the garbage that has populated our bench over the last few years"

Yeah, but I think that's where we're essentially making the same point. I guess my expectations are a bit loftier than settling for Revere's modest upgrade, but maybe my perceptions as to what is realistic of bench talent are overinflated.

Curt: "Hard to believe it took people a year to figure out Revere can't play. You don't grow muscles or a throwing arm or develop instincts at age 25."

Maybe hard to believe anywhere but Beerleaguer, Curt. At least Gwynn has made it to MLB journeyman status, a level Revere will never sniff. Revere is supposedly a one-tool player but his speed is just below elite level and his base-stealing and base-running instincts, like his defense, are abysmal -- reducing Revere to a zero-tool player, whose value approaches zero regardless of his currently low salary.

In the words of noted philosopher Billy Preston:
"Nothin' from nothin' leaves nothin'..."

Willard Preacher:
I don't think anyone would benefit from Revere spending time in AAA, as there's nothing there for him to learn beyond refining his plate approach. He hit .330/.360/.340 in 101 PA his last trip through in 2012, the type of line he's put up through his MLB career.

I've got to wonder how much of a tempest in a tea pot the latest bout of Revere angst is. Ben Revere is what he is: A contact-heavy guy who makes things happen by putting the ball in play and using his plus speed. Anybody who's heavily reliant on batted ball luck is particularly vulnerable to the vagaries of small sample sizes, which is what we've got here. At the end of the day, that's just what could be going on here, and his sub-.300 OBP is statistical noise.

That said, there're three red flags from Revere's first five weeks: His walk rate (1.7% in 2014 vs. 5% career), his surge of infield flies (10% of all batted balls in 2014 vs. 4.1% career), and his decreased O-Contact% (74.1% in 2014 vs. 81.9% career). All of it, as said, could be statistical noise from small sample sizes and I suspect that the walk rate is almost certainly that. My concern with the infield flies and O-Contact% is that Revere actually has heard the complaints about his offensive game and is more often trying to hit the ball with authority (most likely by pulling it), which have produced more negative results (such as the slightly elevated K-rate of ~13% vs. a career norm of ~10%) without producing additional XBHs.

Deja vu

I feel like Ben had a game like this last year. Causing almost all of BL to go crazy wondering if he even belonged in MLB.

Wonder how the rest of that year worked out...

If Ruf has played in any EST games, no website seems to have any idea about it.

Maybe he wore a different number and didn't have his name on the jersey?

I thought the same. Sandberg said he's been in 4-5 though.

By season's end, I would expect an OPS in the .685-.715 range from Revere, with about 45-50 SBs (and maybe 8-12 CS).

His arm will not improve. His routes may slightly, but not dramatically. He will provide a dWAR in the -0.3 to 0.3 range because of his arm and poor routes, but his speed will allow him to make plays that would require a spectacular effort for some to be merely routine.

Honestly, Brown's lackadaisical D in LF bothers me much more than Revere's in CF, despite the arm. Not (necessarily) because he's not hustling in and of itself, but because it takes away the advantage of his arm by making every hit to the corner allow the runner to reach 2nd standing.

Cyclic:
Only one? I thought it was a monthly phenomenon. Seems to happen often enough.

I've got wonder how corrosive the 2007-11 golden age was to folks' ability to evaluate what constitutes "MLB-caliber talent", when the Phils had All-Stars and Hall of Very Good folks at (almost) every position every year. Revere will probably never make an All-Star team and certainly is an unorthodox two-tool guy, but that he doesn't conform to our vision of the ideal CF doesn't mean he's a 4th OF at very best. (Though that his most realistic upside is as a 4th OF is certainly a defensible argument.)

"Honestly, Brown's lackadaisical D in LF bothers me much more than Revere's in CF, despite the arm"

This and it happens a lot more than it should especially on balls near the foul line or even occasionally on balls hit to the gap.

I honestly can't think of many times when it doesn't happen. Where did the giraffe on acid go? At least he closed on things quickly.

"I've got wonder how corrosive the 2007-11 golden age was to folks' ability to evaluate what constitutes "MLB-caliber talent", when the Phils had All-Stars and Hall of Very Good folks at (almost) every position every year."

As opposed to this year, when we have Hall of Very Sh*tty players at all but 2 or 3 positions.

"I've got wonder how corrosive the 2007-11 golden age was to folks' ability to evaluate what constitutes "MLB-caliber talent", when the Phils had All-Stars and Hall of Very Good folks at (almost) every position every year."

As opposed to this year, when we have Hall of Very Sh*tty players at all but 2 or 3 positions.

"As opposed to this year, when we have Hall of Very Sh*tty players at all but 2 or 3 positions."

And this is why it's an exercise in futility to debate the plusses and minuses of Ben Revere. No one is likely to argue that he's not really a starting CF on a contending team (whether he's a bench bat or AAAA fodder is beside the point). What is a virtual lock is that because he's not the most egregious issue, it's unlikely that the discussion is ever proven out one way or another. The chances of the FO prioritizing finding a "MLB caliber" starting CF any time soon are slightly higher than "Houston Astros run off a consecutive sellout streak to end the season."

Juums, good post at 253.

Amazing how much crossover their is between the BL crowd and the WIP crowd when Revere has a game like that.

there*

f*ck

And yet Juan Pierre (career OPS+ 84), whose arm was as bad as Revere's, started on a World Series winner as well as numerous other winning teams.

It's almost as if some posters here are out of touch with reality.

This Ben Revere discussion has been fun, if only because I've gotten the chance to dig into Ben Revere's game and come to appreciate the talents he does have more for it.

Speaking of Juan Pierre, though, one of the big knocks on Revere has been that he needs to become more Pierre-like to maximize the utility of his limited skill-set. And there's some evidence that either he or the Phils staff have been working on that: Revere's bunting more frequently and with more success since coming to Philly. Over 1,063 PA with the Twins, Revere attempted 42 bunts and converted 13 of them into hits; over 454 PA with the Phils, he's attempted 26 bunts and converted 12 of them. And there's year-to-year improvement there, too, as he put converted 8 bunts into singles last year and so far has racked up in just five weeks of baseball this year.

It's not sexy, but it's what needs to do to make the most of what he's got. Which is another small player development story from an organization that's been plagued by flameouts and failures in that realm.

Juums: Great post. I doubt he could maintain the pace, but 12 singles in 26 bunt attempts is a .415 AVG. He should be doing this as often as he can.

And yet Juan Pierre (career OPS+ 84), whose arm was as bad as Revere's, started on a World Series winner as well as numerous other winning teams.

It's almost as if some posters here are out of touch with reality.

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, May 07, 2014 at 03:52 PM


And yet Pierre had a 3.4 bWAR that year and a 3.8 bWAR the year following (his Age 25 & 26 seasons respectively...both were 4.1 fWAR seasons). He posted a 101 OPS+ those two seasons where he was good enough to play CF on a WS team. Even Revere's 2012 season (far better than his efforts in Philly so far) at Age 24 was only a 2.6 bWAR season. That year was a 3.0 fWAR season BTW. So basically the difference between Revere and Pierre is a full Win so far...ie you made a poor comp.

Its almost as if he's a bit better than Revere all around.

Other than those two seasons, Pierre was a pretty mediocre ballplayer overall. Those two seasons were the only time he was more than a fringe/average starter. He had two other years where he was a 2 Win guy and the rest were sub 2 win "fringe starter" level seasons.

Revere
Rollins DH
Utley
Ruiz
Byrd
Brown
Mayberry
Asche
Nix

At least Galvis is benched...he should be in Lehigh.

I fear a return to the lower 3rd for Ruiz when Rollins and Howard are in the lineup together

My last comment on the Ben Revere Power Hour: At the moment, Revere's got a better triple-slash line (.278/.291/.313) than Dom Brown (.229/.286/.294). Given that Darin Ruf's rehabbing, how much does he have to hit before he becomes a threat to Brown's playing time in LF?

2014 Phillies by OPS+

Ruiz 144
Utley 144
Byrd 127
Asche 110
Rollins 109
Howard 104
Revere 68
Brown 61

By the end of the year:

-Ruiz and Utley will probably be a bit lower.

-Byrd is probably close to where he'll finish.

-Asche and Rollins, that's probably their ceilings.

-Howard should be higher. Maybe 125-130.

-Revere in the 90-100 range.

And Brown... oh Brown. Hopefully his will double.

Then the offense might be okay...

WAR/OPS+

Pedro Feliz 2009: 1.3 / 82
Clint Barmes 2013 0.6 / 58
Drew Stubbs 2013 0.8 / 90
Raul Ibanez 2011 -1.7 / 91
Ryan Theriot 2011 0.4 / 85
Melky Cabrera 2010 -1.4 / 83

All those guys were starters on playoff teams. Ben Revere's 2012 WAR/OPS+: 0.9 / 92.

Of course, just because an otherwise good team can afford to carry one crappy starter does not mean that a team should be satisfied with crappy starters. But the problem with the Phillies is that they have multiple crappy starters, backed up by a spectacularly crappy bench & bullpen. Revere is just one of those crappy starters and one who is easily relegated to a lesser role if we find someone better. I suppose he is a small part of the Phillies' problems, but the angst he generates on Beerleaguer is somewhat disproportionate to his share of the overall blame. Dom Brown, Ryan Howard, the trio of 3rd basemen (last night excepted), and the entire bench and bullpen (save for Papelbon) are far more deserving targets of such angst.

I think it's clear to anyone with a brain that the .370/.414/.704/1.117 line he's put up since April 24th is what we can reasonably expect from Cody Asche going forward.

Todd Zolecki @ToddZolecki

Darin Ruf will start a rehab assignment tomorrow with Class A Clearwater.

Wonder if they'll let him move up from there?

Don't relish Marlon Byrd's performance, Cyclic. Even though he's been worth 0.7 fWAR through his first month, I have it on good authority he's due to break his hip any day now. Because he's a geriatric from whom we can only expect a repeat of his 2012 season with the Cubs at the plate.

On a more serious note: I hadn't realized Asche was up to a 110 OPS+. The glories of small sample sizes and what a 4-4 night will do for you. If his bat can be good for a .750 OPS/110 OPS+ -- which is a major if -- does that change his prospects for moving off of 3B to a corner OF position? As the major concern there, I thought, was that he wouldn't hit enough to stick there. As cost-controlled 110 OPS+ guys who play average-ish OF defense have their advantages, too. (This assumes he could play average-ish OF defense, of course, which is an open question.)

Thanks for the heads up, WP.

His final destination is only 2 steps away. Lehigh can't wait!

At least for the first 5 or 6 years of his career, Pierre was a much better player than Revere. He was a superlative bunter, had vastly better strike zone judgment, and hit for higher average and OBP, with more extra base power. According to UZR, he was also a much better defensive centerfielder. The only thing which Revere does better than Pierre is run/steal bases.

"Where does he rank in softness since 2012?"

That's what *she* said!

Honestly, I'm ready to send Brown back to Lehigh Valley when Ruf is ready. __m_nic (no D, no O) is the new _elm_n this year, on pace to post -1.6 WAR over a full season.

BAP:
I think we can concede that Juan Pierre was the better player: He is just constantly invoked because he's the closest comparable we have. (Or, at least, that's why I invoke him when discussing Revere.) Pierre's comparable seasons do indeed demonstrate that he was a better ball-player than Revere at the same age. (Pierre's age 26 season in 2004, where he hit .326/.374/.407 is almost video game-y in its breakdown, as Pierre managed to walk more often he struck out.)

I think you're needlessly casting aspersions on Revere's knowledge of the strike zone. Revere's got a career O-Swing% of 26.1%, which stacks of rather favorably against true free-swingers who have no clue of the strike zone, such as Freddy Galvis. (Who possesses a career O-Swing% of 39.9%.) Pierre, by comparison, during comparably aged seasons had an O-Swing% of 20-21%, which is a firmer grasp of the strike zone, butisn't really "vastly better". Interestingly, Revere in 2011 posted an O-Swing% of 22.6%, the year he had a career best 8.6% walk rate in 432 PA. That number is an outlier, though, as that season he hit .267/.310/.309: His being more aggressive and swinging at more pitches out of the zone since then has actually produced superior offensive results.

So I'm confused... Is the time right for Hamels' first win yet?

Give it another 4 days, 'buster. In fact, the BL mods will likely do just that.

Juums: No aspersions being cast on Revere from here. I like the guy. I do find him a little exasperating in a way that Juan Pierre was not, though. On paper, the differences in their O-swings isn't great, but that strikes me as very possibly a technicality. There are swings that are technically outside the zones and there are egregious O-swings, & it does seem like Revere takes far too many of the latter for a guy whose offense is so absolutely dependent on a high contact rate.

Also, on Asche and that .767 OPS . . . remember, that number is a result of a near-platoon. A .767 OPS would play in a corner OF spot if it was achieved by playing every day. But, right now, he has an .856 OPS against RHP & .258 OPS against LHP.

With a whole 12 PAs against LHP, we can probably assume he'll improve on that number.

BTW, I like Rollins as DH tonight, to ease himself back, but only if he actually, you know, comes back in the NYM series. If his groin injury is worse than let on (like that's ever happened with this team), then using him today (tomorrow?) only prolongs an retroactive date should be need to be DL'd. So, I'm taking it as a good sign, but not without worth dubiousness cast toward the med staff/management...

I think someone asked yesterday, but not sure I saw an answer - can you DH for a non-pitcher? Could we just let Lee hit (God knows he loves to do it) and DH Rollins, yet get Galvis's glove at SS?

WP: You can't now, but I thought I remembered being able to do so in the past. I may be misremembering though.

My fervent wish is to see Brown in the lineup every day until he reaches Free Agency.

I thought Nix couldn't play SS? Is this a test to see if they can send Galvis down?

If Nix can play SS, that also (potentially) obviates the need to bring up Brignac (although I wouldn't mind swapping Brignac for Nix), or allows a demotion for one of the two once Ruf is healthy.

CT, they want to get Nix some ground balls next to Utley...

Besides, with this new patented shift they've been employing, what could go wrong?

Heck, maybe the plan is to bring up Tyler Henson (who's got 2 years running of really bruising AAA pitching) to be the backup 3B in the short term. Added bonus is he bats RH, so if Asche doesn't deliver vs. LHP they can platoon.

Nix(.173) is replacing Lee(.214) in the batting order, AND replacing a Gold Glover in the field. Now THATS versatility!

This is now the 5th game in a row for Ruiz, including a day game after a night game.

I vote for Henson, Galvis and Nix and Mayberry need to go and bring on the best basball player from Omaha - Babe Ruf.

Bold prediction - Toronto scores more runs than the Phillies have hits off of Buehrle.

I can completely picture that, WP.

Game thread!

New thread.

***********************************************
my neighbor’s sister-in-law makes $88 /hour on the internet . She has been without work for 5 months but last month her pay was $12859 just working on the internet for a few hours. pop over to this site…………WORK72­­­.C­­­OM

***********************************************
my neighbor’s sister-in-law makes $88 /hour on the internet . She has been without work for 5 months but last month her pay was $12859 just working on the internet for a few hours. pop over to this site…………WORK72­­­.C­­­OM

my neighbor’s sister-in-law makes $88 /hour on the internet . She has been without work for 5 months but last month her pay was $12859 just working on the internet for a few hours. pop over to this site………… W­WW.­WORK72­­­.C­­­OM

Verify your Comment

Previewing your Comment

This is only a preview. Your comment has not yet been posted.

Working...
Your comment could not be posted. Error type:
Your comment has been posted. Post another comment

The letters and numbers you entered did not match the image. Please try again.

As a final step before posting your comment, enter the letters and numbers you see in the image below. This prevents automated programs from posting comments.

Having trouble reading this image? View an alternate.

Working...

Post a comment

EST. 2005

Top Stories

HardballTalk

Rotoworld News

Follow on Twitter

Follow on Facebook

Contact Weitzel

CSG