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Tuesday, April 29, 2014

Comments

lorecore pointed out the Utley/Howard futility against Freedman over at TGP a few hours ago.

I don't get playing both Utley and Howard against Niese.

Mayberry, OTOH is 9/34 with 5 XBH (3 HR) vs. Niese.

Makes sense, no?

Sandberg obviously isn't listening to Freedman, unless Freedman is RECOMMENDING that they both play against a guy they demonstrably cannot hit.

Ryan Howard vs. Niese:

.067 .118 .067

Kyle Kendrick vs. Niese:

.167 .167 .333


LOL!

I'm expecting to see a sea of Mets fans floating in the stands.

awh-- They know the game will be delayed then resumed, forcing Niese to exit after 1-2 IP.

Crazy like a fox!

Last time Cole pitched in cold rainy weather against the Mets he was booed off the mound. Let's hope that doesn't happen again.

Niese is another Mets' starters who has struggles at CBP although he isn't in the Pelfrey/Gee category.

His career splits at CBP are:

8 GS, 46 IP, 2-4, 4.50 ERA, 1.52 WHIP, 8.6 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 2.8 K/BB

sorry for this newbie question, but, umm.. what are the phillies options at 3b if asche continues to underperform at the plate? many of the other problem areas i see more or less working themselves out, but 3b seems to be a potential problem, even if asche has some potential. thanks!

Martin, Asche is a notoriously slow starter.

One would think the Phillies know his and would stick with him until he gets on track.

He's now right at the Mendoza Line, but since his hot start he's been just awful at the plate.

As clout and others have noted here numerous times, if Asche sticks at the MLB level it will be because he hits, not because of his glove.

Galvis was apparently stuck at 3B because they were upset with Asche's defense, but Freddy bWAR is -0.8 so far this season, meaning his hitting has been SO bad he's possibly cost them one game almost all by himself.

Asche hasn't been much better - he's at -0.6 bWAR for the season.

In other words, if the Phillies had had a 3B this season who was even average, they'd probably be 14 - 11 right now instead of 13 - 12. (I know there's not an absolute correlation).

The Phillies have two glaring holes right now: 3B and at least 3 of the guys in the bullpen.

The rest of the team is going to have to be awfully good to overcome that.

3B Options...

Greg Dobbs DFA'd

Ethan Martin was drafted as a 3B.

Pat Burrell played 3rd base in college.

Saw this little nugget buried in a Rosenthal piece: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/charlie-blackmon-rockies-clayton-kershaw-dee-gordon-dodgers-mike-trout-angels-042814

"*The Rockies'€™ infield defense is so good, the team rarely sees the need to employ shifts. Through Saturday, the Rox had shifted only 17 times, according to STATS LLC. Only the Phillies, with 11 shifts, had fewer."

The more things change...

It looks like Moyer will be the primary "stay home" guy, and Stairs the road trip guy.

RFD must really be in the doghouse for his PR gaff, not to be playing for Howard tonite. Notice he didn't even get to play defense in the 9th Sunday.

Conway, what RFD PR gaffe?

Not going 1st to 3rd on a hit, I believe...

Ohhhh, pinch running.

I though he meant Public Relations and I was scratching my head about what I might have missed.

Cyclic - Great find and I didn't think the Phils had shifted much.

They have had the analytics guy running marginal rate of return calculations on various 'Meat Products' nights including $1 kielbasa nights, etc,

awh: Ryno though RFD should have made 3rd when he PR for Howard. I thought when I typed PR that someone might take it as "public relations", sorry.

Mayberry has barely had any AB's in the past 2 weeks.

Why he's not starting against Neise is pretty mind-boggling.

Stumbled across an interesting infographic on Cut4 earlier today. Check it out.

MLB says the game has moved on to the warmups stage. Maybe get it in yet.

I'd be okay if they want to hold off another "NHL Playoff 2 periods" or so...

No starting JMJ at 1B tonight is puzzling and ditto have JRoll-Utley-Howard in the lineup vs Niese.

JRoll splits vs LHP in '14:

.250/.250/.393 (.643 OPS) in 28 ABs

Slightly better than the last 3 years:

.235/.292/.331 (.623 OPS) in 511 ABs

Just foolish to bat JRoll-Utley-Howard vs LHP like Niese but Sandberg has done it several times already this year. It also makes it really easy to bring in a LOOGY too late in the game.

From last thread...

BJ is a bullet (no a sidewinder missile )that we lucky we missed out on. On a slightly different note. Im not a Mayberry hater i actually rarely "hate" a player. Upon Ruf's return how do the Phillies work him in the roster. Do they release or trade Mayberry? If that is so do you really trust that Gwynn to be as a viable(CF'er) backup. Who's next in the depth chart after Gwyn? Scary isnt it...

Posted by: PLM | Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 05:21 PM

Cyclic i did see your response and i think so to..

Dead here tonight...

The Flyers are battering the Rangers, and this game looked like it was gonna get rained out. Not too surprising.

Delayed start, Flyers playoff game, compelling NBA playoff series, and general apathy of regular posters = dead night on Beerleaguer.

All good points MG. Add in the void at 3b and Hamels probably needs to toss a shutout to have a chance to win.

Go Team.

So much for that shutout. Hamels isn't looking so great.

If Wright hadn't been after Murphy, I'd have walked him once Cole went 3-0 with a runner on 3rd ad no outs.

Of course, Wright has been so bad lately that maybe they should have anyway.

BAP: He's given up some hits, but they've mostly been early in the count. He's sitting under 40 pitches through 3, despite giving up 4 hits and a couple of mid-length ABs in the 3rd.

Kind of Like Cliff the other day, where teams were just jumping on his strikes earlier in the count.

If Mayberry could play 3B, would he be in the game instead of Nix?

Wow, Marlins are massacring the Bravos.

Kevin Frandsen's playing OF? And he did this?

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 1m
wuuuuuuttt RT @JWerthsBeard: @ryanlawrence21 blind backhand off the wall! https://vine.co/v/MvlmQeMLmVz

Revere certainly can't be accused of striking out a lot compared to most guys. But, for a guy whose entire offensive game revolves around speed & contact, he does strike out with infuriating frequency.

Luckily for the Marlins, their offense was able to pick up Fernandez who had a terrible game. He gave up 2 hits and 2 walks. Hopefully he's okay.

BAP:
He's infuriating when he goes down swinging, especially on junk that we expect folks with better pitch recognition than Ryan Howard to refrain from hacking at. It's hard to get upset about that last K, though, as he worked an 8 or 9 pitch PA that ended on a close take on the inside corner. Arguably, even more Ks would be acceptable if they resulted from him working more deep counts like that.

Juums: Agreed. It's generally hard to get upset about any outcome on a 9-pitch PA (when you're hitting). Especially in this weather.

Juums: Yeah, I wasn't necessarily talking about that particular AB (even if my observation coincided with it). It was more of a general observation.

Cole looks awful.

Ouch. That zone is starting to shrink on Cole.

Juums - Good point. Regardless, Ben Revere needs an OBP of about .375 to matter. Right now (before this game): .326.

Nuts.

Cole has turned into Phillippe Aumont.

Strike out the fvcking opposing pitcher!

The oddest thing about Revere this year is he's simply not walking period. Just 2 BB in his first 98 PA this year. That's super low even for him.

This is beyond sickening.

Cole doesn't have it tonight. Understatement. He just walked the pitcher and walked in a run. Four walks in the inning. Ugh.

I wish Jamie could go down and talk to Cole. Don't know if it would help, but it couldn't hurt.

If Mayberry could play 3B, would he be in the game instead of Nix?

Posted by: GBrettfan | Tuesday, April 29, 2014 at 09:14 PM

Good question...I would say yes solely based on intuition..

He's been swinging at more stuff out of the zone, but his oSWING is fairly low at just 26.9% thus far. Fangraphs thinks he's getting about a 1:1 ratio of pitches in the zone to out of it, and his swinging strike rate is a ridiculously low 3.9%.

Niese might fall backwards into the ever fun rain-shortened no-hitter tonight. Awesome.

The Byrd...

BYRD, BYRD, BYRD, THE BYRD IS THE WORD!!!

This is for Iceman (and the TTI lurker) because anytime anyone questions Hamel's toughness gets castigated.

Regardless, I question Hamel's "toughness" if he can't put away Niese on strikes: consider Hamel's toughness questioned.

Nice, a HR on a cool, wet night! Too bad Cole walked in that run.

How does Howard not get a double out of that hit?

Among qualifying players, Revere has the 7th-lowest SwStr% in baseball.

"How does Howard not get a double out of that hit?"


Because he's fucking slow.

Cole's toughness has nothing to do with it. He doesn't seem to have a feel for the ball tonight.

If I ever wanted to do a presentation on why lack of team speed is a major problem, I would just show a video of that last half inning.

awh: Yeah, slower than slow! It was really more of a rhetorical question.

Wow, Clearwater is getting shut out 20-0.

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 1m
This is fun: http://www.milb.com/milb/stats/stats.jsp?gid=2014_04_29_breafa_clrafa_1&t=g_box&did=milb&sid=t566

GBrett, I thought it might be a trick question.

Did their opponent go for 2 and miss or get 2 TDs and 2 FGs?

Or Hamels is having a shaky 2nd start of the season, playing in crappy conditions

Good thing Hernandez was available out of the 'pen.

It could be 68 and sunny with no winds and Hamels would still suck against the Mets.

Our only hope is that Niese sucks in CBP.

Tonight's combined line score for Phillies' highest 3 minor league affiliates:

Opponents:

38 runs, 38 hits, 1 error

Phillies' affiliates:

2 runs, 13 hits, 7 errors

I think it's time to change the channel.

Hey great to see our massively paid "ace" is completely clueless against our biggest most bitter rival.

Great managing, Sandberg. WTF is it with Phillies' managers and the 5-inning mark? Is there something sacred about getting 5 innings from your starter?

The Ghost of our Baseball Future looks like the Grim Reaper by that line, BAP.

I don't think the Mets qualify as our biggest or most bitter rival. Braves get the former, and probably the latter too, simply because we've dominated the Mets for so much of recent memory.

bap - are you trying to say helps not on the way any time soon?

I fully expect the Phils to lose by those two idiotic runs the Mets got because Sandberg wanted to pinch hit for him in the bottom of the inning. No one ever needed to come out more than Hamels did before that AB.

Corey Seidman ‏@CoreySeidman 23s
Cole Hamels has a 4.65 ERA against the Mets in 27 games. He has a 3.30 ERA against everyone else in 220 games

"Regardless, I question Hamel's "toughness" if he can't put away Niese on strikes: consider Hamel's toughness questioned."

I'm hoping this is the troll, because if it's not, it's the dumbest thing you've said under any handle.

BAP-

Our minor league system at the upper levels is a joke. Of course when you whiff on several high picks and trade most of your highest level prospects in deals during the season the past few years, its only to be expected.

Just one more thing that will eventually get Roob fired.

We warmed up Hernandez for one out? I know that isn't what Sandberg wanted, but I'm kind of thinking don't PH for him.

That was a pretty comprehensive sequence of managerial failure.

And the young talent on the MLB club hasn't exactly been lighting it up either.

It is going to be a lengthy rebuilding period and Rube & the Fools (select Fools only) are swept out either this year or next.

@denny b.: I check the scores every night and the teams are abysmal. For example, except for Lakewood, LH, Rea. and Clearwater are getting smoked. It used to be that Clearwater was where the "elite" prospects would go and contend every year. Tonight your 5-20 Threshers are being thrashed 20-0.

Way to go, Rube.

Well, we'll be drafting in the top 10 for the next few years. With a little luck, and a better farm development staff, we could be on the rise in 2020.

Always entertaining to read the comments after a bad Hamels start. Soft, overpaid, overrated.

"Soft, overpaid, overrated."

That's what SHE said!

That was a pretty comprehensive sequence of managerial failure.

Posted by: bay_area_phan
****************
Add in the mystifying decision not to play Mayberry for either Howard or Brown, and its like he's a double agent.

You know, it's really really hard to walk (even though Asche just did) when you're committed to swinging at a 3-1 pitch before it's even thrown. Brown did it tonight, Nix did it, Asche just did it. Feel like I'm forgetting someone else too.

"Always entertaining to read the comments after a bad Hamels start. Soft, overpaid, overrated."

The people who react like that: predictable, boring, wrong.

It's OK. When Cole gets home tonite, that turd-sized dog of his will still love him.

Glad Hamels got that bad first start out of the way. Should get better from here on out.

Cole is very tough.

A genius, huh? What does that mean? Genius? So I was not born with a whole lot of natural talent, not gifted like (insert gifted 3B)… but I work hard and I never give up! That is my gift; that is my baseball way!

It was probably easier for Cole to grip the ball in Florida and Southern California than it was last night.

I'm giving the Phillies Rookie of the Month award to Mario Hollands. May as well give him the May award while I'm typing.

cyclic: "Through Saturday, the Rox had shifted only 17 times, according to STATS LLC. Only the Phillies, with 11 shifts, had fewer.""

B f'n S. Who the hell here can count 5 times the Phillies shifted? 11? Are you kidding me?

"i wouldn't send a knight out on a dog like this." -- ralph kramden

Through Saturday, the Rox had shifted only 17 times, according to STATS LLC. Only the Phillies, with 11 shifts, had fewer.""
*************************************

That advanced statistical analysis guy is really make a huge difference.

Meet the new boss...

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