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Sunday, April 20, 2014


nok - re wildcard - I don't know what to think about this team. The obvious analysis is that a good percentage of the many "ifs" need to fall on the positive side for this team to win.

But, unlike many of the serious posters here, I'm more of a fan than an arm's-length critic. So I will keep enjoying the ride and hoping for the best.

Once again, Beerleaguer aims to avoid new thread.

Lee once again has a ridiculous K/BB ratio. 38/2

It think Comcast should contact the more prolific BL commenters and assign them each one day a week to write a thread header. BAP, clout, NEPP, etc. could each be assigned a day. They could spend 5 minutes writing two paragraphs and email it to the Comcast unpaid college intern who will build the new thread, pop in the text, add a photo and away we go!

It doesn't seem that hard to me. Seeing the same thread header each day, especially during the season, gets old really quick.

Too funny.


Great Moments in Instant Replay: Yunel Escobar strikes out on a 4-2 count

In the bottom of the fifth inning, Yunel Escobar came to the plate. At one point he checked his swing and the ball bounced off the catcher’s mitt. At first glance it appeared to be a foul ball — that’s what the scoreboard operator registered anyway — but it was a ball. A few seconds later Escobar took his fourth ball, and then confusion reigned...

I am becoming quite bullish on Dom's upside. He seems to be working hard at learning the art of hitting. Then, someday soon, what he's learning will become instinct; and can really start cutting it loose.

Revere is now hitting .300/.319/.329.

I haven't looked it up, but if he finished the season with that line, it would have to be one of the worst seasons ever for someone who hit .300, right?

It's almost impossible to hit .300 and still have a sub-.650 OPS.

His ability to hit singles and do nothing else is close to unprecedented.

Todd Zolecki:

"I discovered that today will be just the sixth day since the final month of the 2011 season that the Phillies will not have at least one everyday position player or member of their five-man rotation on the disabled list."

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 2h
Happy Cole Hamels Day. He has a 9.55 ERA in his last five season openers. "I'm looking to make amends," he said.

His ability to hit singles and do nothing else...
Revere is a serious threat on the base paths, he can turn a single into a scoring opportunity rather quickly.

Jake: I meant at the plate, but sure. I was considering baserunning as separate from hitting.

You are right that he is a good baserunner. If you make 6 of his singles so far this season into doubles (6 SB), and erase one (his CS), his slugging goes from .329 to .400.

That means overall he'd be a .300/.319/.400 hitter. With mediocre at best defense in CF. That's a below-average player, though certainly playable and a guy who can start in the majors. It's a place where if he's one of your worst starters, that's fine, but also a position you wouldn't hesitate to upgrade.

And I like Revere. I think overall, the most disappointing thing is his defense. If he was a plus defender in center, you'd feel a lot better about him in there every day. I thought he would be. He just hasn't been so far.

Cautiously optimistic about Cole's game tonight (so much so that I'm saying "eff it" and springing for tix), but I'm realistic. I don't expect more than 6 innings with reduced velocity, and he may even get touched up for 4 or 5 runs.

That said, I expected 1-3 this series, so I feel like we're playing with house money and I'd be okay with that so long as the offense continues to show signs of life (hitting with RISP would be nice...) and Hamels comes through physically unscathed.

Jack - agreed w/ your overall sentiment on Revere: he's not a particularly good player, but at his cost, if he's your worst position player, it's not so bad.

Regarding your equation of Singles + SB = Doubles: I kinda like it, but don't forget that baserunners won't advance as far on those singles, so the SLG is not a true conversion.

Without looking it up, I'd guess there were some pre-Babe Ruth players who slashed something like Revere. But the game is played entirely differently nowadays. Back then a team full of slap-hitters could work if they bunched together. On the Phils, one slapper w/ a group of free-swingers isn't such a good fit.

How did Adams look last night?

He looked quite good, actually. Threw strikes, had good movement on his pitches, & his velocity was in the low 90s. It will be a shame when he has season-ending surgery a month from now.

"It will be a shame when he has season-ending surgery a month from now."

Have you no faith in the Camp, Manship, Hollands, Rosenberg (and whatever else is at the disposal of the Esacalona Express) pipeline?

Has Camp been sent down yet?

10-10 after 20 games. Just reinforces the feeling that I had at the start of the season - that this is a .500 team at best. A little better than last year, but not improved enough to snag a postseason slot. Could be worse, at least you have a 50-50 chance of seeing a win if you tune in.

I stand by my 80-82 prediction.

Compare and contrast singles hitter Ben Revere to singles bitter Mickey Morandini.

"Have you no faith in the Camp, Manship, Hollands, Rosenberg (and whatever else is at the disposal of the Esacalona Express) pipeline?"

I do have faith in them. I have faith that they're going to suck.

That should be singles HITTER Mickey Morandini. For the record, I don't know if Mickey is bitter or not. Auto-correct must think so.

Morandini drew walks at about twice the rate that Revere does.

Revere has been on base 23 times this year, and 20 of those have been singles. Obviously that pace won't keep up (his walk rate will increase a little bit, and he'll get a few doubles down the line). But if it did, I assume that would be close to unprecedented for an everyday player.

Morandini hit 32 more HRs than Revere will ever hit in his career.

I never realized that Morandini drew so many walks. Nor did I realize that he was actually pretty good for about the last 4 years of his first Phillies sojourn. I guess I just became accustomed to hating him after his first 3 or 4 seasons, and I never bothered to look at his stats after that. Kinda like all those fans who still think Von Hayes was terrible because he was terrible in his first Phillies season & they stopped paying attention after that.

That brings up another question - isn't .500 kind of the worst thing that could happen to this team?

Let's say there are no major injuries this year, everyone plays decently enough, and they still end the year at or around .500. To me, that implies another offseason of no major change and continued tinkering around the edges of a .500 product. It also buys RAJ another year at the helm (or God forbid, an extension past 2015). I just threw up typing that.

WSJ, I completely agree.

And that doesn't even mention the potential of what happens at the trade deadline where there's the potential that Rube further mortgages whatever future is in this team in a ridiculous "buy" fleecing.

I remember some vitriol towards Morandini, but don't remember on what it was based. Thanks for the info. I don't post much any more because of the trolls, but I still read regularly.

Define "around .500"

And what changes (brought on by how crappy of a season?) would you like to see that you'd be unlikely to see if they actually compete for the wild card this year? Trading Lee?

What do you think RAJ is doing right now? For some reason I could totally see him celebrating with a session at Oasis Tanning Salon down on 16th St.

RAJ: "Hey Trixie good to see you. Can I get the usual?" (plops down $6 on the counter)

Trixie: "30 minutes in the ProSun Ultra? Sure thing Mr. Amaro. By the way, congratulations on the 10-10 start so far."

RAJ: "Thanks Babe. I built that team myself, you know. Burnett's groin's gonna be fine, all year. Bullpen's coming around too." (takes towel and walks towards tanning bed).

Trixie: "Mr. Amaro, you know you can't bring that margherita in there with you, right?"

RAJ: (keeps walking and shouts over his shoulder) "To the victor goes the spoils, babe!"

I always think of Duane Kuiper as the quintessential nothing-but-singles hitter. For his entire career, Kuiper hit .271 & slugged .316.

In case anyone missed this:

"• Darin Ruf is starting to swing in the batting cage. He is on the disabled list with a strained left oblique.

"He's starting to progress," Amaro said. "I'm not sure when we'll get him into games yet.""

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 29m
The Phillies optioned BJ Rosenberg to triple A. They will keep both Jeff Manship and Shawn Camp in the bullpen.


Juan Pierre had a career OPS of .704 and was nothing special defensively for most of his career.

The problem with stats is they all have blind spots. In the case of OPS, the blind spot is speed, range factor and bunting ability.

I do agree with Jack that Revere has little value if he can't hit at least .300 and, unless he walks more, I'd argue he really needs to be hitting .315-.320 to have good value. His speed is good enough he'd add 10-15 hits a year if he could master bunting for a base hit. That would likely put him over .300 annually.

At the height of the steroid era, Pierre finished 10th in MVP voting with an OPS of .734

But the poster who calls himself Reality told me that there was no way Shawn Camp would ever make the roster, and that, by suggesting that he would, I was just looking for an excuse to criticize RAJ for keeping a veteran over a young guy.

Mind you, this conversation occurred after I said that Camp probably SHOULD make the roster because he's a veteran. But, according to Phlipper/Reality, it was still a subtle shot at RAJ because I was just pretending to be a Camp supporter, so that I could predict that he'd make the team -- thereby advancing my agenda that RAJ is an idiot for keeping veterans over young guys. If that makes any sense.

Since after 20 games of .500 baseball, we can all agree that the Phillies are a .500 team, allow me to make a few more projections based on 20 games:

Utley will hit .391
Howard will finish with 40 HR
Rollins will finish with 105 RBI
Cliff Lee will strike out 308 batters
AJ Burnett will bat .444
Cole Hamels won't throw a single pitch.

The Red Sox & Pirates will win 69 games each
The Brewers will win 115 games

Oh no, I've gone cross-eyed

"The problem with stats is they all have blind spots. In the case of OPS, the blind spot is speed, range factor and bunting ability."

OPS also fails to account for the fact that different spots in the batting order require different skill sets. Revere's OPS will always be low because of his miniscule slugging pct. But, if he's batting leadoff, OBP is much more important than slugging.

That said, even in the leadoff spot, you'd like the guy to have at least a little power. And Revere's defense needs to improve drastically, in order to make up for his lack of power & terrible throwing arm. He had yet another near-disaster last night, when he inexplicably backtracked on a sinking fly ball, thereby turning a routine play into a diving catch. I actually like Revere but, considering just how narrow his skill set is, he needs to be a whole lot better at those skills. Otherwise, he's a 4th outfielder.


Is that the current bullpen hierarchy?

Cyclic, I'd say you're close, but gap between the Adams/Bastardo spots on the totem pole is rapidly closing...

Josh Johnson: TJ surgery. $8M down the drain for the Padres.

As I recall, many of us wished that the Phillies had made a run at him in the off-season.

Shoulder issues and now TJ? Yikes!

Not expecting them to get many against Greinke. But hopefully they at least get him out of the game before the 6th. He hasn't been going deep this season.

Manship will be off the roster soon. I just dont have any faith in the guy sorry to say. I dont mind taking a flyer but when its both Manship and Camp just shows the sorry state of our Minor League affiliates and Rubes lack of planning. Not that Stutes would of been our savior but its a shame the guy had injury issues. I would of took a healthy Stutes over Manship. Anything is possible but i hate to blow games on extreme long shots like Manship/Camp. Camp just because he is a veteran would get prefrence in Rubes System. Anything is possible but it's scary having both of these guys in our Pen. One wouldnt be so bad.

"Josh Johnson: TJ surgery. $8M down the drain for the Padres.

As I recall, many of us wished that the Phillies had made a run at him in the off-season."

bap, I was one of them. Between 2008 and 2012 he pitched to a 3.06 ERA and 136 ERA+. But he's only pitched 200 innings made 30 starts once in his career.

They guy just can't stay healthy.

Did the Padres medical staff miss something. Did they used to work for the Phillies?

Hey Ruben, How about AS SOON AS F*****G POSSIBLE!


Asche sits for the 6th time in 11 games.

Wow, quote disappeared from my post above. Should have been:

"He's starting to progress," Amaro said. "I'm not sure when we'll get him into games yet."

Hey Ruben, How about AS SOON AS F*****G POSSIBLE!

Cyclic, Asche appears to be in Sandberg's doghouse.

No reason not to play him against a RHP, though maybe they think his defense is THAT bad and they want Hamels to benefit from a good defensive team behind him.

awh: I was one of them too.

PLM: In fairness, Camp was a perfectly competent reliever for many years, including as recently as 2012, when he put up good numbers & led the league in appearances. He obviously is no great shakes, but I could see him being halfway decent, in a 2008-2009 Scott Eyre kind of way. Given the alternatives, I'm fine with giving him a shot.

Happy Easter, everyone.

One at bat seems to encapsulate the problem with Ben Revere's baserunning. Last night, Rollins took two hittable strikes in the ninth inning to allow Revere to run. He never did until a few pitches later which was a foul ball. Then he again waited until the next hitter had two strikes to steal second.

If there is a hierarchy to stealing bases, it surely includes being early in the count of the next hitter up. Because if you are waiting until the next two batters have two strikes on them to even try to run, then your single and steal didn't exactly equal a double. In fact it's way closer to a single and a smidge than a double in any practical way.

And to add insult to the situation, Kenley Jansen has a move to first much like my granddaughter's.

I hope we can avoid the sweep.

"And to add insult to the situation, Kenley Jansen has a move to first much like my granddaughter's."

If only you had bought her that Phillies cap, it might have given her the encouragement she needed to work at improving her pick-off move. I kid, I kid. . .

Okay, I gave them some time, but NOW we should all start to give the mods sh8t for not having a new header up. There's a ton of content out there for a simple two paragraph "jumping off" starter header, not the least of which is the return of a Cy Young caliber pitcher.

I mentioned at TGP, and I'm completely serious, that when I had trouble accessing BL over the last few days, I was actually hoping that they just allowed the domain to lapse. I was prepared to buy it and put forth the minimal effort involved in monitoring and popping out something as a header each day - NEPP even volunteered to help out with them. It's actually fairly simple, as the comments here are the real content.

The offer is on the table, Comcast. Let's chat...

WP: If you build it, we will come.

Ugh. Why am I quoting a movie that I loathed?

And like that new thread!!!

(still, Comcast, call me)

Kinda surprised Asche is already done as a starter.

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