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Monday, February 10, 2014

Comments

A new thread sighting.......
Can spring be far bekind?

Like I said once before - if they sign Burnett, I might actually believe RAJ and the ownership when they talk about fielding a competitive team with a shot at being a playoff team. If not, then I will continue to believe RAJ and the ownership are just blowing smoke.

Does signing AJ herald a trade of Kendrick? Or does that push MAG or Hernandez to the bullpen based on preformance? Dude it can't hurt, expect that it may if we need budget room to add in July. Or it may hurt if he gets full NTC and can't be traded in July if the team stinks.

CS, if they signed Burnett and traded KK it would be self-defeating from a depth standpoint.

If they hire this guy (Burnett) it will be a tribute to the new stat guy hire (Freedman) because he realizes that ticket sales to start and wins later will more than pay A.J.'s salary. The new TV money can pay for the fail. Easy decision. What's the problem. We can outbid the competition.

I really feel that if the Phillies sign Burnett he can advance the career of Kyle Kendrick. Maybe giving him just another hint to perfect his abilities. Who can predict these sort of things?

No brainer if they can get him on a 1-year deal. It gives them a puncher's chance at a WC if the rotation stays healthy. Isn't that hard to sell 30 GS from Burnett this year what they got from Halladay/Lannan last year giving them a 5-6 win boost in the standings.

Also allows them to potentially bolster the pen too by putting Martin, MAG, and Gaudin back there too to start the season.

Phils still need a bunch of other things to break right besides the starting rotation leading the team: good health, slightly improved defense, bullpen that rebounds and ends up slightly above average/average which would be a huge improvement, slightly improved offense that is closer to average too.

Basically a team that is closer to average in the other areas this year and has a top 3-4 starting rotation. Probably would to acquire a piece or two at the trading deadline.

If worst comes to worst and the Phils fall apart mid-summer again, they can move a couple of pieces at the trading deadline to dump salary including Burnett, KK, or others.

Burnett makes so much sense it's difficult to imagine the season without him. A solid stating rotation for those that pay attention to the game. A name familiar with the seated fans. The "Wheeze Kids" when they pull into summer with a chance.

Sounds like Burnett will be the winner in this deal to be honest.

    ...Still, the worst of what Jake said is nowhere near as dumb as some of the stuff cut_fastball has said- yet he's largely given a free pass because he fits with the general doomsday tone of the comments here. Basically if you cast a glass half full perspective on anything- and this goes back to when the team was actually good- you are cast as a FO apologist....

    Posted by: Iceman | Monday, February 10, 2014 at 10:48 PM

Care to elaborate, chilly willie? I did post - and continue to believe - that an Astros-style meltdown remains the best and quickest possible means to rebuild and restock this team. You can't rebuild an airliner in flight at 35,000 feet. It's a valid point of view, in light of the innumerable gaffs this organization has inflicted on itself.

Go peddle your ersatz rosy pontifications at The Good Phight. You'll fit right in. Oh yea, be sure to drop a few ad hominem bombs on schmenkman while your at it. He just loves the attention.

Jerk.

The AJ signing would start people talking about them again. Philles need him for the team, and boost the pitching rotation. And the fan base needs him to give us all glimmer. Sure they have holes and need luck. But this could be a solid pitching rotation. While providing depth in bullpen and at AAA.

exactly, Coach. this is show business. and this is the perfect time for a little "hoopla."
it creates a much needed buzz about the phillies. and generates a sense of hope for the season. do it monty. think like an impresario. the money it requires is a mere bag of shells to middleton, et al. and a smart investment.

I did forget my contention that Hamels isn't cuddly enough comments. Sorry.

Oh and everything else I say on here that sounds like the ramblings of an incoherent middle school student.

when i first found Beerleaguer 3 years ago, ppl calling each other idiots was a little off-putting. i lurked for 6 months before i even had the nerve to post smth. now, i enjoy it all. i just hope that the demise of this site is like the famous premature notice of mark twain's death.

On second thought treating Kendrick would not make much sense. Unless it gets you Mason Williams or Almonte from the Yankees. Time will tell this will be resolved soon I'm sure.

Basically if you cast a glass half full perspective on anything- and this goes back to when the team was actually good- you are cast as a FO apologist....

Posted by: Iceman | Monday, February 10, 2014 at 10:48

This is funny. Because it's true.

Apologists...

It seems we have near Beerleaguer unanimity on Burnett. Do the deal, Rube!

"when i first found Beerleaguer 3 years ago, ppl calling each other idiots was a little off-putting. i lurked for 6 months before i even had the nerve to post smth. now, i enjoy it all."


Bullit, WGAS who calls you an idiot on an anonymous internet blog?

That's the way I look at it.

I guess I don't understand all the people that take and internet discussion/argument AND THEMSELVES so seriously.

The one thing I will say about the folks over at TGP - and I like the blog - is that a few of the posters seem to have a feeling of self-importance, and have a resultant a resultant lack of sense of humor. They seem to lack the ability to laugh at themselves, and self-deprecating humor is almost non-existent among the "smart set" over there.

doubleh, who used to post here, is an exception, but there are a few people there that take themselves and the blog too seriously.

On a baseball note, and possibly relevant to Burnett, did anyone see this on mlbtr?:

"•One factor in Bronson Arroyo's decision to sign with the Diamondbacks rather than the Orioles, reports Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun, was the fact that Baltimore had scrapped deals with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin over concerns with their physicals. The O's offer was on par with that of the D-Backs: it was for slightly less guaranteed money, but carried a greater third-year option value. While Connolly writes that other factors -- including a preference for the NL West -- certainly played a role, he says that the risk of a deal falling apart at this stage of the off-season weighed substantially in Arroyo's decision-making process."


If that's true, then the Orioles may be shooting themselves in the foot with an aggressive medical posture.

One hopes Burnett takes the same position, and it gives the Phillies a better shot at signing him.

They have $157.00 (based on lux tax calculations) committed to 18 players who will surely make the trip North (or we're stuck paying them anyway):

Lee
Hamels
Kendrick
Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
MAG
Hernandez

Howard
Utley
Rollins
Ruiz
Mayberry
Revere
Brown
Frandsen
Byrd
Nieves

I guess they could afford Burnett at ~$16.5 and still stay under the lux tax threshold. With benefits and the remainder of the 40 man roster it would be awfully close.

awh-- What are you talking about? The Phillies medical staff is quite thorough...

awh: i hope i don't take myself too seriously. it just seemed like the ad hominem stuff was unnecessary. now i accept it as being curmugeonly, not vicious.

i agree that a sense of humor is an important part of this blog, and seems to be missing at tgp. i can't imagine them getting into all the ripping we did of elmn, aka yak.

"The Phillies can release Mayberry with 16 days left in spring training and pay him just one-sixth ($265,000) of his $1.59 million salary."

-Gelb

So there's some savings.

Hahaha. Phillies releasing JMJ. That's rich.

Signing Burnett won't be cheap though and it blows the Phils way past last year's payroll at $160M.

Imagine that Burnett wouldn't sign for less than $15M with an option and that would put the Phils very close to/over $175M.

Trading KK/signing Burnett would largely defeat the benefit of signing Burnett though.

Definitely shooting their foot there.

I tend to think we're just getting played by Burnett...he wants to stay in Pittsburgh but wants more than the 1 year, $8-9 million they offered.

Ruf
Hernandez
Galvis
Abreu
Nieves

Revere
Utley
Ruiz
Howard
Byrd
Brown
Rollins
Asche

Lee
Hamels
Burnett
Kendrick
MAG/Hernandez/Pettibone

Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
Diekman
Lincoln
Munson
Gaudin

So, why the hell didn't they tender Schierholtz last year, if they could have just voided it with little penalty?

That's my team almost to a man, Cyclic.

Ruf
Hernandez
Galvis
Abreu
Nieves

Revere
Utley
Ruiz
Howard
Byrd
Brown
Rollins
Asche

Lee
Hamels
Burnett
Kendrick
MAG/Hernandez/Pettibone

Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
Diekman
Lincoln
Martin
Gaudin

Play ball.

A Burnett signing would help the fans outlook for the coming season. The status quo the FO maintained over the winter even with the ahem, Byrd signing, excited no one. The fans want to be invested in the team. Here's a chance to do it.

Burnett's salary would push the FO over their pre-determined payroll figure - a number presumably etched in marble. Is this just for show to get the fans hopes up or are they seriously looking to get better? Burnett would give them a very good starting staff. That gives them a punchers chance. There's still other holes that weren't addressed.

Actually, I'd still like to see them take a chance on Ryan Madson.

But I don't see them not having Rule V guy on the opening day roster.

Maybe Adams will be on the DL.

Dickie, when you have a stud like Laynce Nix on your roster, there's no room for stiffs like Schierholtz.

I suspect that the Rule 5 guy will go the same way as Travis Blackley and other failed Rule 5 guys...unless he's phenomenal in ST or they make a trade to keep him and stash him in AAA.

Trading KK/signing Burnett would largely defeat the benefit of signing Burnett though.

Posted by: MG
**************
Really disagree. What if you could get a Brett Gardner type (similar salary) for KK and Mayberry? You then pull one of the cheap starters off the scrapheap for $1-1.5M( I liked Maholm, but basically whomever you think has an arm that won't fall off) and you've effectively saved $4-5M, added a quality outfielder in place of JMJ, swapped a better pitcher for a weaker one and replaced the hole in your rotation with a downgrade from KK from KK, buta downgrade less severe than the likely upgrade from KK to Burnett.

That Schierholtz move is has been baffling since day one, and if this same minor penalty would have applied there, makes it surreal. Maybe he was really agitating to leave town for a chance at something closer to a full-time position...

P.S. I gotta say, upon getting the hang of TGP's commenting system, the live updating, that "next unread comment" button, and the "90 seconds to edit your post" feature are all pretty sweet. I keep trying to mash the c button over here.

Schierholtz was almost certainly dumped because of Nix's guaranteed deal and nothing else.

Also, there wasn't much in his history to suggest the type of season he'd have in 2013 anyway. Rube went with power over contact for his 5th OF...and it backfired.

Could be one of RAJ's smoke screen moves. In which they had little to no intentions of actually signing him. Then to later said negotiations ( too much money or 2nd option year) fell apart or something of the sort. Im not a huge Burnett fan myself but a signing would at least get people talking. Though i dont think as excited as some might think. Some will probably hate the move simply because he is another old dude. Then of course he could be signing as im typing this.

If Adams is on the opening day roster I'll consider it a medical miracle. The past year and a half have been very hard on his body. Two operations since leaving Texas and three stints on the DL last year make it hard to count on him.

bittel - Cashman had a much higher asking price supposedly for Gardner though than KK/Mayberry. Wouldn't get it done and the Phils would have to throw in a decent prospect too and there is the question if they would even want Mayberry and his salary.

The whole point of getting Burnett is that it hopefully would give them a guy who would give them 30 GS, ~200 IP, and have a domino effect in a couple of others that boosts the team's depth and quality.

Personally, I do have some real doubts on just how productive Burnett could be in a HR-friendly park (PNC Park certainly isn't) and with an infield defense that wouldn't be as good or shift as frequently as the Pirates did.

KK looks a heck of a lot better in the #4 spot than the #3 spot...same with the MAG/Pettibone combo in the #5 spot.

Crashburn Alley posted on Howard the other day and strongly advocated he should strictly be a platoon player this year with Ruf.

Strongly agree. Get a defensive upgrade, a notable boost in production, and you save the wear & tear on Howard's balky knees/Achilles.

Howard could DH in the Interleague games and that would put him on pace to play about ~120 games or so. Phils faced LH starters last year 42 times.

Question is Sandberg going to be smart enough to do this and more importantly will he be allowed by the FO and Howard. Can't imagine Howard will be a good soldier if he basically sits vs LH starters even if it would be beneficial for the team.

NEPP - Hernandez would be the #5. Pettibone opens the year at Lehigh and ideally MAG would too either out of the pen or in the rotation unless he has a lights out spring.

Bullpen locks are Papelbon, Bastardo, and Diekman. Adams is a lock I think to start the year on the DL yet. Need another LH and to fill 3 other spots because I imagine Gaudin makes the team as the long man out of the pen unless he has horrible spring.

"Can't imagine Howard will be a good soldier if he basically sits vs LH starters even if it would be beneficial for the team."

Based on what?

Don't the Phillies start the year in Texas?

Will be interesting to see who the opening day DH will be.

Yeah, wasn't thinking about Fausto...he would definitely be the #5 with MAG maybe in the bullpen or in Lehigh with Pettibone.

"Burnett's salary would push the FO over their pre-determined payroll figure - a number presumably etched in marble."

I though it was a number that Montgomery made Amaro write on the whiteboard facing his desk in his office - just as a gentle reminder.

Should fit very well age wise.

***Will be interesting to see who the opening day DH will be.***

Ben Revere...we'll pull him out of retirement.

NEPP - Welcome to the club! I was also threatened with banishment from The Good Fight.

Mine happened two or three years ago when Whole Camels was the blog lord. He demanded that I stop picking on Taco Pal and Matt Swartz, two guys who deserved being picked on. Back then, Groupthink was pervasive at TGP.

Your transgression was bucking the plan administrator and calling somebody a rube.

I guess TGP is still the same old place.

Using the bench wisely and appropriately is going to be a huge key for Sandberg.

Howard, JRoll, and Utley aren't guys that should be counted on to play 150 games anymore.

Howard should be used strictly in a platoon role with Ruf at 1B, play as a 1B/DH, and start 120-125 G this year.

JRoll can't hit LHP either anymore. Howard's epic struggles get mentioned all of the time but here are JRoll's splits the last 2 years vs LHP

.234/.299/.331 (.630 OPS) with just 5 HRs in 384 PAs.

That's a 7th hole/8th hole hitter at this point.

Galvis could equal if not do slightly better than those numbers and it would save some wear & tear on JRoll's too. JRoll never really did have his 2nd half boost in his number he has had almost every year of his career.

Ideally the Phils would keep JRoll G total down to the 140 G range instead giving him some starts off LH starters & hopefully he has more left in the tank in the 2nd half.

'Man has got to know his limitations' and hopefully players like JRoll, Utley, and Howard will be willing and flexible to being used in a somewhat lesser capacity this year to keep hopefully healthy and productive this year.

Yeah and everyone on here is so welcoming of people who come in here and buck the traditions and posting style of the place.

Some of you are just showing how big a moron you are.

MG, Sandberg has said that Howard is going to get a shot to hit LHP early on.

The question is

"How long does Sandberg let it continue if he's not hitting LHP, and perhaps just as important, what is the performance standard to which Howard will be held to allow him to continue to go out against LHP?"

7th or 8th hole hitter?

Pretty close to league average SS .253/.307/.372/.679 actually.

Using Galvis, you're just trading OBP for SLG, which actually does sound right in line with team philosophy.

awh - Which I understand but probably will be foolish.

I'm sure the FO and Amaro have a strong stay in that too.

Still think Cholly primarily benched Howard vs LHP not for production as much to rest Howard's balky knee which in the end didn't matter as he wound up on the DL anyways.

Question: If Howard hits LHP in ST, does it mean anything?

Answer: No.

cut thinks the Astros model is the one to follow?

Wow. Just wow.

I won't rest easy until I see the confirmation that Rube has in fact signed Vernon Wells to a multi-year contract!

"Ideally the Phils would keep JRoll G total..."


MG, I paused mid-sentence because I thought "JRoll G" was a new nickname for him that I hadn't heard - you know, like Master G.

Cyclic - Still giving up 50 pts of OPS (primarily more pop) with no real increase in AVG or OBP.

If JRoll is essentially a sub .300 OBP/.300 OBP guy vs LHP without substandard power, doesn't lose anything by starting Galvis really vs LHP.

Might even gain a little more offense and no real difference/slight increase in defense.

Clout: I'm not sure there's any particular "model," and I certainly wouldn't want to go through what the Astros have the last couple years, but do you disagree the Astros have a brighter future in the next, say, 3-5 years, than the Phillies do?

Cyclic - If the Phils open in Texas, that should mean two things for Howard: first, he doesn't need to bring his glove at all; and second, he doesn't need to bring his bat in the games started by Harrison and Perez.

    I did forget my contention that Hamels isn't cuddly enough comments. Sorry.

    Oh and everything else I say on here that sounds like the ramblings of an incoherent middle school student.

    Posted by: cut_fastball | Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 06:07 AM

Whoever you are, nice hack. However, I also stand by citing the quotation from Cole Hamels. In 2009, he pitched poorly. When asked about it during the World Series, he stated: "I just want it to be over.".

Misquote me all you wish. Oh, yea - middle school. Just look in a mirror. You're spending time spoofing an anonymous internet poster. That's precious.

Galvis has a career .288 OBP against LHP.

He'd have to improve on that substantially for me to see him as a viable offensive upgrade over Rollins against LHP, even taking into account his power.

Man, these TGP people take themselves way too seriously. So far, I've been scolded at least 3 times for the grave offense of sarcasm. Yesterday, I was told, by the blog master, that sarcasm is only appreciated in small doses because it can be construed as negative. Like, no sh*t! That's the whole point! Is this some government-run media outlet where I'm not allowed to imply that I think the Phillies are a less-than-stellar operation?

Two other times, I've been scolded for making a sarcastic remark without typing it in a special font which announces to the world that you're about to be sarcastic. Sort of defeats the whole purpose of sarcasm, doesn't it? Besides, I wouldn't even know when to use the font. Sarcasm only works if it carries a kernel of truth to it, so how is one to decide if his/her comment falls under the category of sarcasm or merely cynical, but honest, observation?

I realize that sarcasm occasionally gets lost when you're speaking in an online venue. But, for the most part, if you really need a special font to tell you that it's sarcasm when I say things like, "By the time the Phillies fully incorporate analytics into their personnel decisions, other teams will be using DNA analysis," then you're either really dense or really rigid-minded.

Agreed, derek. But I don't see it happening.

BAP - I totally agree with your point about sarcasm. If you have to telegraph your sarcasm, there's not much point in using it in the first place. I never announce anything. I just say what I want to say. If some don't get it, so be it.

P.S. Let us know when you get your threat of exile from TGP.

Right now the start of spring training is generating a circa-2000 level of nonexcitement. Rightly or wrongly, Burnett would change that.

No one did that to you in the threads over there. You are whining for no reason.

Its a different culture to be sure but alot of the problems we had were self made.

I think its slowly improving today as we move on from the BL vs TGP mentality.

MG: Totally agree with you on Pettibon. I'll be shocked if he doesn't open the season in LV.

Jack: "but do you disagree the Astros have a brighter future in the next, say, 3-5 years, than the Phillies do?"

Lotta variables there. Hard to say. They certainly have a better group of prospects. Then again, the Astros have only had 1 winning season in the past 7 and haven't made the playoffs in the last 9, showing the "prospects only" approach to rebuilding much loved by BL posters may not be the best course.

Sorry that was directed at bap

cut thinks the Astros model is the one to follow?

Wow. Just wow.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 11:12 AM

That's mild...before the trade deadline he was insistent that the Marlins had a much better model for sustained success than the Phillies.

"I think its slowly improving today as we move on from the BL vs TGP mentality."

I guess I'm not seeing the progress that you're seeing. I've actually gained a new-found appreciation for my Beerleauger foils like Iceman and TTI. They're gratuitously insulting at times, but at least they'll engage me by telling me why they think my post was stupid or ridiculous. At TGP, I can't even pick a fight if I try. If I say anything to imply that the FO is less than top-notch (in other words, 99% of my posts), all I get back is a one-sentence response about how "overwhelmingly negative" the Beerleaguer crowd is. There isn't much to say back to that.

BAP: I like "nuh-uh" as a reply...

TPOT: That about covers it.

To be fair to the Astros, a lot of those past 7 years were their owners (previous and current) deliberately dropping payroll as far as possible to pocket the difference...as well as the tailend of an attempt to keep an aged core relevant far past its expiration date.

To be fair to the Astros, a lot of those past 7 years were their owners (previous and current) deliberately dropping payroll as far as possible to pocket the difference...as well as the tailend of an attempt to keep an aged core relevant far past its expiration date.

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:18 PM

So we are, in fact, emulating the Astros model?

"So we are, in fact, emulating the Astros model?"

We even hired their GM to be RAJ's right-hand man.

Well, I dont expect them to gut the roster just to save money like Crane has done the last couple years.

Signing Burnett means the difference between me busting our Bull Durham, Field of Dreams and the 1980 and 2008 highlight DVD's, all rolled into one glorious baseball marathon with my two remaining Southern Tier Pumpkings. Or not playing them and saving the beer for something else.

In other words, this move is the main difference between me being cautiously optimistic that we could contend for a wildcard and ownership showing the fans something, or likely watching this season quickly fade away by Memorial Day.

Until Burnett signs a Phillies contract, I will believe pretty strongly that the latest rumor about still being in on him is nothing more than 1. Burnett's people trying to drive up the price for Pittsburgh or 2. Phillies FO trying to play make believe to make fans think they were in it to the end. I fully expect to see "Well, we were interested, but in the end those kind of dollars didn't make sense."

Well, I dont expect them to gut the roster just to save money like Crane has done the last couple years.

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:29 PM

I don't expect them to...but if payroll were to drop sharply after the big contracts come off the books in a couple seasons, after they struggled on the field and attendance dropped dramatically as a result, I wouldn't be shocked.

But to clarify, I don't ever expect them to sink to an Astros-level payroll. I wouldn't be surprised at all to see them running several years with an 80-100 million dollar payroll, however, which would put them roughly middle of the pack.

    ...That's mild...before the trade deadline he was insistent that the Marlins had a much better model for sustained success than the Phillies.

    Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, February 11, 2014 at 12:05 PM

Chris, I respect that - Jeffrey Loria is a jacka88, and should be banned from ownership due to not acting in the best interests of baseball.

But the basic premiss remains - carrying dead money because those contracts belong to popular players, long past their expiration date, makes no sense.

Since Montgomery/Amaro did not focus on the farm, and gutted what was of value for what amounted to "shiny beads" you might indeed be able to make a case for the Astros being ahead of the game. Actually quite far ahead; think of the room under the luxury tax they have.

Finally, Cyclic - how does someone hijack a name registered in Typepad? I'm being ghosted, and it's no fun.

"Jeffrey Loria is a jacka88, and should be banned from ownership due to not acting in the best interests of baseball."

Not to mention in prison for that stadium deal.

"But the basic premiss remains - carrying dead money because those contracts belong to popular players, long past their expiration date, makes no sense."

How, exactly, would the Phils go about getting rid of the "dead money" obligations to players long past their expiration date? Players like that have basically zero trade value. Even in a salary dump, which has grown much rarer in MLB, you're still going to have to pay the vast majority of the contract for the other team or else they'd never make any sort of deal with you in the first place.

MLB contracts are virtually 100% guaranteed, so you can't just cut Ryan Howard and knock 25 mil per off the books. You still have to pay him, and it still counts against your payroll.

The Phils are stuck between a rock and a hard place, which is part of the price they're paying for a prolonged period of sustained success. Even before making the playoffs to kick off the 07-11 run, they were still consistently finishing above .500. They could have kicked off a rebuilding effort sooner, but did any of us expect a 20-win drop from '11-'12?

On paper, Moyer seems like an excellent choice. I hope he doesn't feel constrained to offer nothing but platitudes and happy talk -- whether at the directive of Comcast or the Phillies, or because of his ties to the team and players, or just because of T-Mac's rub-off effect. I mean, I don't expect him to be like a Beerleaguer poster and say things like, "Fausto Carmona is wretched." But there is plenty of room between over-the-top negativity and the obsequiousness of T-Mac.

Chris - No one really expected a 20-win drop from '11-'12. However, perhaps a more savvy FO could have read the tea leaves and have seen the injuries to Howard and Utley as reason to rebuild sooner.

Now, it's Band Aids and bailing wire, and barring a miracle, not much fun. Oh yeah, the Red Sox dumped salary - clearly, a huge amount. I still don't believe how well it worked out for both the Dodgers and the Sox. That was some transaction.

Came on to express my pleasure at the news that Stairs and Moyer are supposedly both to be hired for the TV broadcasts. Really happy about that. Now I may actually have a dilemma about whether to listen to the radio with the TV muted, or just turn off the radio.

As to the roster possibilities, I'd feel more excited about the team if they acquired Burnett (although he's never been a favorite of mine) and Madson (assuming he's healthy). Shoring up the rotation and BP would give me more hope that the team might be able to hold their own.

Clout: "Then again, the Astros have only had 1 winning season in the past 7 and haven't made the playoffs in the last 9, showing the "prospects only" approach to rebuilding much loved by BL posters may not be the best course."

I think this 100% completely and utterly misses the point. First off, for the first half of that 9-year span, the Astros were actually following the current Phillies model, which is "hold on to your washed-up veterans and pretend you can compete." The 2009 team that went 74-88 featured six position players age 33 or over, and their only young players were Bourn and Pence. Their starting rotation included Mike Hampton (36), Russ Ortiz (35), Brian Moehler (37), Wandy Rodriguez (30), and Roy Oswalt (31). And $105 million payroll. Not exactly "prospects only."

Second, using bad years as you collect prospects as evidence that the prospects model doesn't work is not logical. The question of whether it works or not depends entirely on the second part of the model--if the prospects you collect . The being bad for a few years (and I'm saying a few because I only think they embraced this model around the Pence deal, mid-2011) is part of the model whether it succeeds or fails. It's like you're saying a start-up company is a failure because it hasn't shown a profit in its first two years, when in fact that's already assumed as part of the process.

Classic Jack- not understanding what other people are saying.
At least he isn't just calling people racists because he has nothing else to offer.

I'm pretty sure both Moyer and Stairs also got ST invites as part of those deals.

Sorry, there's a sentence in there that got cut off. It should say "if the prospects you collect pan out and create a good team moving forward."

I need help:

Smashburger question to any of you guys who have eaten there:


Will they cook the meat to your preference?

Jack: So you too favor the all-prospect route. I'm not surprised.

awh: Everything I've seen on Smashburger says they only cook to well done.

Finally, Cyclic - how does someone hijack a name registered in Typepad? I'm being ghosted, and it's no fun.

Posted by: cut_fastball


All they do is paste your typepad URL in the website section when they make their post. But if you actually click the link, the imposter posts are not under your account.

awh-- That's off topic. Please post your own header if you want to discuss food.

The comments to this entry are closed.

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