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Monday, January 13, 2014

Comments

Galvis .230 .269 .375

Cedeno .246 .289 .354


Hmmmmm, maybe the Phils think Cedeno is someone who can guarantee Freddy PA in AAA this season?

Cedeno=Galvis without the defense.

Defensive whiz like Cheez Whiz?

Cedeno can play lots of positions, but he plays them all badly. He has a negative career UZR at every position except 2nd base and, even there, his UZR is barely positive. He's no defensive whiz.

Whoa boy Freddy. You must've messed up. Ronny having a marvelous playoff run too. I suspect Freddy bait on a trade.

If signing Cedeno prevents Sandberg from following his plan to start Galvis 2-3 times per week at various positions, I'm all for it.

Maybe he meant "a defensive piss..."

Cedeno is a legit AAA middle infielder. They could have, and already have, signed worse.

Shasta - what if Rollins is contemplating getting out?

"Galvis .230 .269 .375

Cedeno .246 .289 .354

Hmmmmm, maybe the Phils think Cedeno is someone who can guarantee Freddy PA in AAA this season?"

Your analysis is flawed. It should be:

Galvis: .230, 43 (RBIs), 4 positions played

Cedeno: .246, 239, 6 positions played

The versatility is strong in this one.

"If signing Cedeno prevents Sandberg from following his plan to start Galvis 2-3 times per week at various positions, I'm all for it."

Would you still be for it if the new plan is to start Cedeno 2-3 times per week at various positions?

BAP: Hell no.

Anyone see the Royals/Guthrie restructure? Thought that was pretty good stuff by the Royals.

They extended his contract with an 2016 option year, then shaved off around $3M of his 2014 money and moved into his option year's buyout.

Guthrie is guaranteed the same money in the next couple years as he was originally, while the Royals get a few more bucks to spend for now while also controlling Guthrie one more year just in case he has a strong 2015.

This is all we'll see between now and spring training, meaningless depth signings. Definitely need some at SP. They should be some real gems.

also, my post had nothing to do with guthrie's ability as a pitcher, just purely commenting on the $$ aspect of it.

minor miracle of this 2014 offseason: The Phillies haven't signed Chad Gaudin(yet).


#1. He's a fungible reliever named Chad
#2. He just had an outlier career year
#3. Owns Phillies in small sample (1.77 ERA .88 WHIP in 20IP)
#4. He's over 30
#5. He's versatile (476 IP SP / 360 IP RP)



Love how the Phils keep doing things to keep fan excitement level high.

That Comcast money just bought us Ronny Cedeno. Boys and Girls, this is going to be a season for the record books!

Rollins, Galvis, Cedeno, Brignac, and Blanco all in the Major League camp. Then there is Tolbert in the Minor League camp who used to start for the Twins. Do you think we have enough shortstops ?

Yeah So four shortstops are coming to camp besides Rollins? Yeah i don't think they're shopping him!

Wayne: Pretty sure that gives us a total of 2 shortstops.

If you shoved all of them together, anyway.

"AWH: Ricky Bo didn't educate Marshall Harris because it would have not fit with the program. It wasn't necessarily him being an idiot. It is actually him doing what he needs to do in a television medium."
.
.
TTI, I could not disagree with you more.

If Ricky Bo had ANY inkling of what 69 PA mean (virtually nothing) he would also have some familiarity with Darin Ruf's MiL splits and his demonstrated ability to crush LHP in the minors.

His answer could have simply been:

"Marshall, I don't think we've learned very much from 69 AB because it's not a very big sample size, but Ruf has a history of hitting LHP pretty well in the minors, so if I have to place a bet, I'll bet going forward Ruf hits LHP in the majors at least as well as he hits RHP."

Simple, to the point, informed, and fits the medium.

In short, in that situation, there is no excuse for ignorance.

Also, something to help warm the cockles of your heart on a cold, off-season day.

The Mets are still hiring.

Wayne - I was thinking the same thing too. Cedeno is marginally better than Brignac (and Blanco too) but he's a minor league/AAAA player at this point.

What is more likely now is that one of these veteran stiffs will win a job over Galvis in ST.

Galvis may not be much better than Cedeno and Brignanc but I would rather see what he can do than the Phils give time to a complete stiff like Brignac/Blanco or waste a roster spot on Cedeno.

If the Phils want to sign a journeyman major leaguer to fill the starting SS at Lehigh, that's fine.

Cut and paste from CSN, nice.

I have to think we've seen about what Galvis will ever do. Is it better to have a journeyman-to-be utility guy, or a journeyman utility guy?

I guess you could argue that he'll never have better reflexes than now, and he's never less likely to be injured... But is he really as good as even those guys? In the field probably, but at the plate?

The Phils have signed a ton of major league journeyman/veteran positional players but haven't done as much on the pitching side where they actually need to.

"The Phils have signed a ton of major league journeyman/veteran positional players but haven't done as much on the pitching side where they actually need to."

Yes, MG, and r00b has told you why: The Phillies think the pitching market is "crazy" in terms of the deals being struck.

O's interested in _elm_n. Maybe if they sign him they can loan him an "O" to replace the one he lost last season?

_elmon

Of course, rearrange those letter slightly and you get "lemon".

Season = saved

awh - Market is waiting for Tanaka. There are a surprising number of decent starters left who are available and are half-decent.

Likely going to be 2-3 nice bargain to be had if teams can convince those guys to sign and take a slightly more moderate salary over 2 years or a higher 1-yr deal along with the $6-8M left to spend.

Going to be interesting to see some of the truly hideous split-squad lineups the Phils trot out especially earlier in ST.

Me thinks Jimmy stays while Freddy and Asche may head off to Toronto. Then Maikel handles himself (probably literally) at third and we get a pitcher from the Blue Birds.

>> Cut and paste from CSN, nice.
>>
>> Posted by: Cs

They should just have Beerleaguer pull articles from CSN's RSS feed and be done with it.

I don't understand this fascination with Franco "needing" to play 3B in the MLB this year.

The guy has 69 games above Clearwater-level, and he doesn't turn 22 until August. Let him get a full season facing pitchers who can actually throw something.

MG, you are right on the market waiting.

I hold out hope that the reason the Phils haven't signed someone else is that they are really going to be a mystery team in the Tanaka lottery.

He has the same agent as Ryan Howard, same agency as Howard, Lannan, Mayberry, Morgan, Nix, Schneider, Lincoln and Fields, so I guess their relationship is OK.

The question, IMHO, is does Tanaka want to play in Philly?

I hear Montgomery when he says the Phils already have one of the higher payrolls in baseball. Unfortunately they had some bad signings and injuries, and the current team is the result of those events. Everyone knows the team won't be representative of the payroll this year. Are we supposed to support a mediocre to bad team because they won't put more money on the field to make the season at least interesting?

The Phillies have come off 6 straight strong years at the gate, leading the league 4 times and finishing 4th twice. I would guess they exceeded their profit goals the last 6 years combined. The new TV deal will bring in a ton of new revenue too. Is it too much to ask the Phils to invest some more money over the next couple years so CBP doesn't look like the Vet in the mid-late 90's? If they field a contender the fans will fill the park.

Buster, agree on Franco.

While he had a promising 2013, he's still only played half a season in AA, which is not enough to tell us much of anything except he's a legit prospect (the jump from A+ to AA being the hardest). That, and the fact that he put up a .226/.275/.348 line in 155 AB in the DWL are enough to tell me he needs more experience.

Freddy Galvis, Sebastian Valle and Reading teammate Jim Murphy outperformed him in the DWL.

caveat: above the *SSS Alert* should have been posted.

Correction, Galvis and Murphy played in the VWL, and Valle played in the Mex-Pacific. Should have said "outperformed him in the Winter leagues.


Also, Severino Gonzalez apparently didn't last long in the VWL, where he got shelled in 6.2 IP to the tune of an 8.10 ERA. Did he get shut down?

Additionally, one of Beer*Leaguer's favorite 2013 whipping boys, Luis Garcia, pitched 15 innings in the DWL to the tune of a 1.80 ERA with 14 K's. His problem is he continues to BB too many, as he walked 7 batters in that same 15 IP. He only gave up 7 hits though, and help opponents to a .153 BA, with a 0.93 WHIP.

Very interesting new article over at mlbtr on minor league free agents finding MLB deals - some without any MLB experience.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/01/minor-league-free-agents-finding-major-league-deals.html

Ho-Hum.

Ruben has put together the most Versatile squad in history. I fully expect him to succumb to the excitement and suit up and play a few innings in Clearwater.

Curt-- Hed probably sign himself for 2 yrs. w/a vesting option

Hum-Ho.

Now we're talikng!!

The Phillies obsession with signing utility infielders is bizarre, but stealing time from Galvis shouldn't be on your worry list.

If Galvis, whose upside might be as a utility infielder, can't beat all of these worn out old vets in spring training, then the team isn't losing much.

As the bodies pile up at SS, I'm guessing Freddie's not the SS of the future after all.

Also, when you're the 5th SS signed by a 2nd tier team, you're either completely out of other options, or you know something the rest of us don't know.

curt: Maybe Rube is trying to build a fire under Galvis. A bonfire.

Galvis might be a stiff. Phils don't know though. Rather find out than going with guys who are known stiffs like Brignac/Blanco or veteran journeyman like Nieves or Cedeno who don't have any future here beyond this season & basically no upside.

At best, they are basically replacement-level players. At worst, they are much worse especially defensively and provide worse production than some of the younger players in the Phils system.

Amaro signing Dave Sappelt (RH) and Tony Gwynn Jr (LH) who both can play CF and were signed on minor league deals in the past month does make a lot of sense though.

Phils don't have a young player who can play CF and is worth a look. It also made little sense to sign Davis at 2 yr/$10M either.

Bowa will be setting the defense this season. We'll see if his avant-garde 2 OF arrangement works out.

clout, they signed Cedeno because he's versatile™, and I don't type that jokingly. Amaro as much as told us that when discussing mini mart's "value".

This, and the other signings make sense if you want Galvis to get regular PA at AAA, because 1) you think he's going to be the stopgap SS between Rollins and Quinn/Crawford, and 2) you think you might move Rollins after this season and you want Galvis to have more PA under his belt(though I don't think Rollins is going anywhere).

I have even greater fears about this stocking of SSish players.
I suspect they are going to try to start of one of them at 3rd as a "legit starter", not ST, not lighting fires but relying on one of these stiffs and moving Cody or dropping him down for more seasoning. Not that he is the answer at third.

I don't see how the Phils "don't know" if Galvis is a stiff or not.

He has one season with an OPS over .700 (2011), and you almost have to think he was juicing then. He only has one other MiLB season OPS over .600, and that was this year, when he only had 62 games in AAA (posting a .631 which, when coupled with his MLB numbers, gives him a .647 for the year).

People seem keen on giving him a pass because he's young (24 - not super young anymore) and great on D (at SS and 2B, anyway), but there's no indication his bat will ever significantly improve. Also, he was on the same team as Michael Martinez, which makes anybody look better. However, that makes him a utility infielder, and wholly expendable, even at the expense of a 30-year-old journeyman who hits marginally better and can play acceptable D (not saying Cedeno is that, but they're dime-a-dozen types).

I feel like the same people who love Galvis loved Wilson Valdez. Awesome guy, great memories of some of his play, poor baseball player.

Boy, ARoid is now suing the MLBPA.

With millions on the line, I can understand his consternation, but what a douche.

Harry, IMHO Asche would stay up if his stick plays and one of the "SSish" types might be a late inning defensive replacement if he shoes he doesn't have the chops to handle the hot corner.

Galvis has had under 400 PAs at the MLB level and his value is going to be in his defense.

Yeah I do think he can be better defensively than Cedeno (possibly much better) while giving the Phils the same lack of offense and a low OBP.

Galvis is almost certainly a utility infielder but I would rather have one who actually might be pretty good defensively vs a guy who isn't anymore like Cedeno.

Galvis has actually had 422 MLB PAs, but the point is that the Phillies know exactly what they can get out of him, and that's a stiff. Pretending he's not a stiff because he's younger than most utility infielders is just pretending.

I have zero problem with the team looking for a backup infielder (especially on the left side, where injury is less likely an issue - plus, Galvis is pretty bad at 3B) who can hit well enough to occasionally be used in a PH situation more effectively than Galvis.

Incidentally, I find the argument "Galvis doesn't have enough MLB PAs to judge" rings pretty hollow when his MiLB PAs were almost universally even worse than his MLB ones have been. I would think the odds of his numbers dropping from even his MLB average (.644 OPS, .269 OBP) extremely likely.

Cedeno isn't good, but in 2013 (his worst year since '09) he posted a mildly better BA and OBP. In 2012, he posted better numbers in Citi Field than Galvis has literally ever posted at any level of play. Even his 3-year average (.249/.301/.350) is better than all but 2 of Galvis' years - and with an OBP noticeably to dramatically higher than one of those.

Does that mean I want Cedeno on the team? No. But it does mean he's likely to be more useful offensively than Galvis, and as such I really don't care if he takes Galvis' spot.

Putting Freddy in Lehigh and letting him placehold (or possibly trading him) is no more a sin than keeping him on the MLB roster to play positions he should only be playing in the event of injury... At which point he could have been called up without eating a spot on the 25-man.

I am currently dueling it out with Fios over the pricing. Does anybody know if Cfinity can pull the sports net out from under the Fios people or take the games away with the new deal?
I would hate to lock in and miss any moment of the 2015-17 Championship years.

These are Cedeno's numbers the past 3 years:

.249/.301/.350 (.651 OPS) with 9 HRs in 928 ABs with 7 SBs and 10 CS.

Also has been rated average/below average defensively over that time period.

Do I think Galvis can at least duplicate those numbers and provide better defense at 2B/SS? Yes.

When you factor in defense, Galvis is the better player.

Cedeno isn't the worst guy you could have stashed in Lehigh though...so there's that.

Galvis has one more option year. I think they should plan on using it if one of the other utility types can provide a better bat.

Galvis could play everyday in AAA to see if the bat does get any better but he is likely a utility INF but will be cheap and likely under control for 5 years if they want.

I like the attempt at Brignac but if the Rays got nothing out of him I doubt the Phillies will. Cedeno is more of the same. I know Cesar is not a SS but how much worse would he be than these guys?

Regardless, if Rollins goes down for awhile, Phillies can bring up Galvis and go from there.

Roob needed to find someone to replace Mike Martinez.

Good move.

Great, utility men stiffs and starting rigormortins. Dom Brown is the teams only hope for an All-Star on offense.

I agree with buster that there isnt much else to find out about Galvis at the plate - an 8 hole hitter at best. Maybe his little sparks of pop stick around for an extra week or two during a hot streak or more experience improves his terrible plate approach - but thats about it.

But what buster seems to be overlooking is that the average SS last year was a .681 OPS hitter. If Galvis lives up to his glove potential, then even his poor bat still represents positive value, making pre arb $$.

Contrast that with our $11M SS who just put up a .667 OPS, and unfortunately we should be comparing Galvis to a 35 year old Rollins as our starting SS instead of against our AAAA filler.

In other words, starting Galvis at SS plus $10.5M in both 2014 and 2015 is likely better than Rollins starting at SS during those same two seasons.

MG. the problem with your analysis is that Cedeno is a much better role player than Galvis.

He's a much better, much more experienced PH.

I wish I could take credit for it, but JoeCatz over at TGP pointed it out.

You can see Joes analysis here:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2014/1/13/5303586/chase-utley-appears-on-wip-and-says-words-out-loud-publicly#comments

Here's what Joe said:

"in a bench role he’s an upgrade over Galvis too. mainly because in 100 PH appearances over his career the guy has a 270/351/447 line.

Galvis has 18 career pinch hit appearances. he’s gotten one base hit.

no one puts enough STOCK into how a bench player handles the role of being a bench player.

over the past two seasons, Cedeno has 30 PH appearances.

hes 8-26 with 2 HRs in that role.

perspective: Nix in 12 and 13 was 14-76 with 2 PH HRs.

theres tremendous VALUE in knowing what a player can do in a specific role. with bench guys its less about the numbers than the situation for me. and if my choice is Galvis or Ronny Cedeno as my back up SS whos not gonna get a lot of time? I’ll take Cedeno 10 times out of ten."

For the record re: versatility, Galvis played nearly twice as many innings in LF (79) last year as Cedeno has in his whole MLB career (43). Cedeno additionally has a single inning only at CF and 1B under his belt.

Saying that Cedeno plays six positions is thus misleading, and I think it's a stretch to say that he has more defensive versatility than Galvis. I'm sure that Freddy would end up playing 1B and CF for at least an inning if he kicked around the bench for a few more seasons.

But who cares? I like Galvis as a defensive super-sub with an alleged and vague ceiling, and I like him as a trade chip, and I like him as a decent enough quad-A guy, so I don't think it really matters what happens to him.

awh: really? Cedeno is a .801 OPS hitter in his 97 PA as a PH in his 2783 total MLB PA where hes a .644 OPS hitter - so he's a better 'role player'?

You know why a career bench player has only 97 PH? Because he freaking sucks and is the last person who should be PH'ing. The ridiculous fact that he somehow has a .801 OPS in those PA is just one those 'fun with numbers' things that we all love about baseball, not a legitimate analysis of a player.

gotta admit though, that is one of the cooler splits I've ever seen.

Since 1945, there have been 1098 players with 97 or more PH. Of those 1098 players, Ronny Cedeno has the 13th best OPS difference(.157)

Kurt Abbott is all time leader as at a whopping .259. Worst ever is Randall Simon at -.343

lore, results is results.

Fact is, Galvis is what he is, a marginally talented hitter.

Now that Anthony Bosch has revealed how they beat the testing system, the testing protocols will change.

Do you think that might affect Galvis and his ability to hit?

I think it might. Totally PED free Galvis may not ever be as good as he's shown so far.

awh earlier today: "Marshall Harris, when discussing Ruf as a platoon option for Howard, brought up Ruf's 69 MLB AB against LHP. Yes, SIXTY-NINE (69) whole AB. (Harris is obviously ignorant of sample size issues.) But Ricky Bo did nothing to educate him on the unreliability of small sample sizes.

Is this because Ricky Bo is ignorant also? Probably."

awh in response to EIGHTY-FIVE (85) whole AB by Cedeno as PH: "results are results"

Oh, lore, you are just soooo bad, I guess you got me, or, didn't see the sarcasm. Oh well, I guess I'll lose a ton of sleep tonight because of some anonymous guy on internet.....


hahahhahahahhaha

I only scanned the thread and comments. I do have to agree with buster on Franco. I vote just let the guy get more time in the minors. I also think Galvis can come close(or match) Cedeno offensive #'s whilst playing better defense.

after reading this article about franco's breakout year, in the wake of bosch's interview, is it wrong to think about about PED's in MiLB? i hope he's not juicing. the coming year should prove if it was a fluke.

http://www.milb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20131030&content_id=62661352&fext=.jsp&vkey=news_milb

i'm now convinced, after reading up a bit on cody and the comments of others, that maikel should play the year with the pigs. asche only spent 2 years on the pharm. that's about the length of mike schmidt's MiL career. and his BAs since clearwater are gaudy high. i just wish he had the power that his body suggests should be there.

LorecorE, you're not alone:

[MLBTradeRumors] Another name that could be under consideration, according to Salisbury, is Chad Gaudin. The well-traveled 30-year-old, who has appeared for nine MLB teams over eleven seasons, put up a 3.06 ERA in 97 innings last year for the Giants. His primary attractieness to Philly would be his ability to work as a starter or out of the pen.

Cedeno is just another terrible move in a series of terrible moves this off-season.

arod could come here and play for the lancaster barnstormers. there's an outfield picnic area that he could wreak havoc upon.

So the Phils are only going to sign minor league signings from here on out? Man ticket sale renewals must be horrible and they must be expecting a huge drop in gate revenues this year.

Getting tickets should be easy though and maybe even for face or less by midseason from scalpers.

***Man ticket sale renewals must be horrible and they must be expecting a huge drop in gate revenues this year. ***

I know a bunch of season ticket holders and I dont know of any that renewed their plans this winter. A couple went from full season to the partial ticket plans but most simply cancelled...and these are guys/people that are lifelong fans that have stuck with the team through everything. They'll still watch on TV and go to 5-10 games a year but they're not shelling out thousands for 81 games or even 17 games (whatever the partial ticket plan is anymore).

NEPP - I renewed my partial plan on Sundays but split it between 2 other people. Gives me about 4-5 games a year and maybe I make it down to a handful more depending upon availability and interest.

Too busy and more than fine with just watching 1-2 games a month.

“If Adams is healthy or can be eventually -- you can’t count on it, but that would be nice,” Amaro said.

You could say the same about 2-3 other players too and basically the '14 Phils.

What in the world to do with Overbay?

the best quote is when amaro said he's 'still trolling' for arms.

I think we all know he really meant that his GM tenure is built on trolling BL.

awh: nice work on the 'plead for insanity' defense last night, don't think I've seen someone purposely post like a lunatic in effort to slip out of a debate. The BL Lawyers would be proud.

Buying season tickets for 2014 is a suckers move.

You know darn well that there aren't going to be very many sellouts, and if you wait until the morning of the game, you can get great seats for a steal on StubHub.

Hopefully, the drop in revenue sends a message to ownership that the fans do not entitle them to a string of sold out games. It depends on the amount that they're willing to invest in the team and the wisdom of the GM to make wise decisions.

If they want to entrust the team to one of the good ol' boys and lessen payroll, they can't count on people mindlessly handing over their money. They'll budget their entertainment dollars elsewhere.

bullit: "i just wish Franco had the power that his body suggests should be there."

Franco hit 31 HR across A+/AA as a 20 yr old last year. I'm not sure what else power you could realistically expect.

Most people considered Miguel Sano as the #1 power hitting prospect in the majors. He happens to share the same age/position/level as Franco, and totaled 35 HR in the same season.


Oh yeah, a ticket to a 2014 game will be easier to find than another utility infielder.

LorecorE: sorry for the confusion. i was referring to asche's build.

"Cedeno is just another terrible move in a series of terrible moves this off-season."

Chase, feel free to take this personally, but you're like so many short-sighted people here you just can't see the big picture.

Cedeno is... are you ready... A F8CKING MINOR LEAGUE signing. He's not even on the 40-man. The guy was signed for depth, and only has an outside shot to make the team.

But... and here's the big picture... his presence allows two things to happen:

1) Galvis, who still has options, can be sent to AAA where he can PLAY FULL TIME, and... you know, actually work on his game and maybe get better.

2) Cedeno is basically a Galvis clone, slightly better offensively and slightly worse defensively, so as a bench piece they're a wash. So, what does that give Amaro the flexibility to do? Send Galvis somewhere else as part of a package (maybe with Cliff Lee at the deadline, or bundled with Brown, Ruf or someone else), and by adding Galvis in the deal they may get a better player back. I love Freddy's defense as much as anyone, but the guy can't hit, he's been a PED user, may still be using, and as I stated above - with the Bosch disclosures (testosterone right before games, etc.) there are going to be changing drug testing protocols, and Galvis might be affected by that, so why not trade the guy while he still has "some" value?

If J.P Crawford IS the SS of the future, then the Phils only need Rollins to play out his contract and then a stopgap after that until Crawford is ready - maybe Rollins year-to-year. If that scenario unfolds Freddy is just a future UT guy and/or org filler, unless he has a Bautista like transformation.

Big picture, boys and girls. Big picture.

lorecore, did I just see you purposely misquote bullit? Yes, I did. Or, are you going to plead ignorance or insanity?

Do you have any reading comprehension skills at all?

bullit was referencing Asche in that sentence, not Franco.

Here's bullit's paragraph again, just for you:

"asche only spent 2 years on the pharm. that's about the length of mike schmidt's MiL career. and his BAs since clearwater are gaudy high. i just wish he had the power that his body suggests should be there."

thanks for the defense, awh. when i saw "franco" in my quote i did have to go back to my post to see if i had made that mistake. it wouldn't have surprised me.

bullit: ah, my bad, misread that. Agreed.

lorecore, you may have misread it, but HTF did you misquote it?

You have heard of "copy-and-paste", no?

I think if you would say Cedeno is a boring, who gives a sh!t move instead of terrible, it becomes more accurate, If an off-season signing is made to "free up" Galvis, it's just another signal that Rube thinks "tinkering" gets it done. Does anybody REALLY think the Phils sign ANY of the top 5 or 6 SP left on the market? Seems the posters joking about Gaudin are probably spot on. Here's hoping that Amaro gives us a Shocka w/ Tanaka. This off season has put me to sleep.

b-ref. lists cody at 180 lbs. i always thought he looked bigger. ruf weighs 40 lbs. more than asche and is 2" taller.

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