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Monday, January 06, 2014


(A suburban mom is whipping up breakfast for her 30-ish son who still lives in her basement. He frantically eyes the clock and stands near the basement steps, yelling down to her "boy".)

Mom: Corey honey, it's already 11am on Monday. That story isn't going to write itself.

Sorry "She" eyes the clock

LH help?

The Reds are talking to Grady Sizemore:

Nothing better than a person trying to be a jacka$$ for no reason and screwing up their writing.

Especially when that person is a regular poster here probably hiding under an even more assumed screen name.

If you would rather discuss the Phils new TV deal (apparently there is either a blackout being imposed on the topic at Komkast, or the employees there have been kept in the dark) you can go over to The Good Phight.

There's a pretty good analysis up over there:

Seems like the Phillies are content sucking left hind udder this offseason. Hard to believe a franchise this badly in decline with little help on the farm wouldn't do more to try to get back to the playoffs sometime soon. But, hey, this is the Phillies. They sign a somewhat lucrative TV contract, then pretty much tell us to lump it, they're not going to up salary to improve the hash their GM has made of the roster.

Yes, the payroll is already pretty high. But if you're paying for dreck, you probably need to spend a little more to obtain something other than dreck. Maybe we can start pulling numbers off the wall, Vet Stadium style, to count down the days until Rube is no longer at the helm.

Tanaka or bust. That is all.

SI's New Year's resolutions for NL teams:

The Phillies:

"Philadelphia Phillies resolve to trust people under 30.

Domonic Brown’s breakout age-25 season should help in this regard. It will keep the now-26-year-old Brown in the lineup and also provide some positive reinforcement to the team’s management for giving a young player a job and room to breathe. Cody Asche, the team’s 23-year-old third baseman, could be the main beneficiary of that approach in 2014, but beyond those two and centerfielder Ben Revere (26 in early May), Philadelphia’s youngest projected regular in 2014 is likely to be 34-year-old Ryan Howard. On days that Cliff Lee pitches, five of the team’s starters will be 35 or older."

Smitty, speaking of Tanaka, Tom Verducci has a nice writeup on him - the risks/rewards - over at SI:

awh: It's not like we have ever changed the tone of topics over here.

TTI, I know, but when has something like that ever stopped us from poking fun...

The Good Phight doesn't really do this but I've seen some analysis that is hung up on the actual 2.5 billion number and not looking between the lines as to why this is a pretty lucrative deal for the Phillies.

I'm not 100% sure how the stake works in owing a piece of CSN Philly as it relates to how much money is received off of that and from what end it comes from but 25% of CSN Philly is more lucrative than 34% of CSN Houston and probably 50% of what the Mariners own. The Flyers still draw a sizable amount of viewers to the channel and with 3 major sports teams playing there- as well as- the local basketball scene I would venture as a whole the ratings average is much higher than what those other stations pull.

Being able to keep advertising revenue is a nice cherry on top of the cake for the Phillies.

Phuture Phillies is a shell of its former self, however they are doing their annual Reader Top 30 prospect list. It's interesting if you want to learn more about some prospects and engage in some of the discussion.

All I need to know about prospects I learned from Beerleaguer. Anyone in our minor system is awesome. Any one we traded we shouldn't have.

The Phils have to pay 34% of the rights fee into the revenue sharing pool. The ad revenue and the stake in Comcast is theirs though and will be worth a lot more than what they have to pay into the pool. The Dodgers got an 8.5 billion rights fee deal and have to pay 34% of that into the pool, if I read the article correctly.

Bottom line is that this is still agood deal for the Phils and they still put much back into team.

PhuturePhillies used to be awesome...just like BL used to be. Both are shells of themselves now.

Nepp- You need to insert "literally" into your prior post.

It keeps it fresh for up to a week.

Jason Stark has a great writeup on

Strange But True feats of 2013

Prominently featured is none other than former Phillie Casper Wells, as well as former farmhand Tuffy Gosewisch.

Also a writeup on how Jean Segura stole second base, then stole first base, and then got thrown out trying to steal second - in the same inning all without batting around.

Halladay featured, and also this little blurb on Production™:

"More proof that all walking streaks are not created equal: The Phillies went four straight games without drawing a single walk. The Royals drew a bases-loaded walk in five straight games. I'm still not sure which of those is harder to do."

Good stuff!

I think some of the comments under the Verducci article are more perceptive than the article itself. For some reason, Verducci didn't include minor league innings thrown in his analysis of innings pitched by a certain age.

If those innings are taken into account, then Tanaka is in line with a bunch of pitchers who went on to have lengthy careers.

Tanaka or bust. That is all.

Tanaka is the baseball savior.

They are conceding 2014 and looking to 2015. Players come off the books and money will flow like wine. Be patient for 1 more year

Tanaka saves. Repent.

dons, the problem is that free agency isn't what it used to be, because teams are now locking up their best players.

Even small market Pittsburgh was able to lock up Andrew McCutcheon.

For example, Kershaw, Lester and Scherzer are slated to become FA's, but do you really expect all three of them to be available? LA is already trying to lock up Kershaw, Detroit the same with Scherzer, and it's unlikely the Red Sox will let Lester, their best pitcher, walk (though they do have lots of young arms). And they all have the money.

Look at the list and ages of the FA's, especially the outfielders:

Anyone there you would really want given the contracts that have been handed out this offseason?

About the only place they're going to be able to open the wallet and make an impact is in the pitching corps, and the guys who can really help are going to get paid a lot of money and get a lot of years. We're seeing that this offseason.

Besides, their going to go into 2015 with the roster pretty much set: C, 1B, 2B, SS, LF, RF - they all have guys under contract, and the only other place where they may add someone else is 3B and CF. 3B is the place where the franchise's top hitting prospect plays, and CF is manned by Revere right now.

So, barring trades and subsequent signings, there isn't whole lot their going to be able to do - even if they have the money.

Hopefully Trout hits FA in 2018 and wants to come back to Philly. Hopefully he hasn't fallen in love with southern CA and hopefully the Angels dont open up the coffers to him (hopefully the Pujols/Hamilton deals, etc make it impossible for them). The Phillies would be in prime position to simply hand him whatever amount he wants at that point.

That's 4 years away though so we'll see.

On FA, maybe Nelson Cruz will end up signing a 1 year deal for low $$ to rebuild his value. As it stands, nobody is interested in him for a variety of reasons. If he were to take a 1 year deal, we could theoretically move Byrd to CF and make Revere a 4th OF.

That'd improve our lineup significantly while the defense would take a hit as Cruz is a terrible defender. Byrd was a full-time CF as recently as 2011 (998 Innings in CF that year). He grades out as league average for his defense there over his career and he had positive UZR ratings there in 2010-2012 over a 2611 inning sample size.

Cruz on something like 1/10 or 1/12 might make a lot of sense for the Phillies...even with it costing us our 2nd round pick.

I'm literally going to blow up the Sun if I have to read literally millions more stupid posts about literally thousands of sh*tty players the Phils will literally overpay by literally a thousand orders of magnitude.

I'd like to see Cruz on the team in the outfield - no problem with a one year deal that contains a second year option. What would it really hurt? It's not like he'd be blocking the advancement of any of our young farmhands (cause we ain't got none). So, if we've really got a shot this year with our Hard Core (like Rueben maintains) then drop a few more bones in the pot and grab a stick and hope he hits.

"They are conceding X and looking to X+1"

Fixed that for ya!

Phils already have $113M committed to just 7 players right now in '15:


If JRoll's option vests, it is $124M.

They're right back where they were last offseason and essentially have little no roster flexibility in FA the next 2 years.

Going to take the next GM after Amaro gets fired this offseason at least 2 years beyond this year to really clean up the mess and largely barren cupboards he inherited.

***If JRoll's option vests, it is $124M***

Consider that they likely keep payroll around $160-170 million again in 2015 and it'll take some serious "creativity" to fill out the other 17 roster spots with just $40 million or so.

Tricky Dick, please elaborate, as I'm not sure what you mean.

If we are in year X, we are conceding that year and aiming at the next one. e.g. "Manana!"

I've had my fill of people berating the farm system. Our farm is far from the worst and will produce a few MLB players in the years to come.

It's not the's probably right around #20 overall at this point.

So its getting better at least.

AWH~ What you say is true. But is this really the best RAJ could've done? Ihave my doubts. Is this team really "built to win"? Doubts there too.

Reality is that they weren't gonna spend really big bucks and they really weren't gonna make any trades. We get all that and we get why (from the teams' standpoint). But they always try to sugar-coat things because they believe things that aren't really true. And then they come out in the media and say it. Do they really expect we phans to buy the bill of goods they're selling? That's what bothers me. Tell the truth or don't say anything because we know they're lying and the entire baseball world knows it too.

If RAJ waited, he could have had Marlon Byrd for $8 million total in the buy one get one year free Black Friday Special.

For the love of God, the Byrd deal was pretty much market value.

Can we please stop complaining about it?

Barring a a fairly serious injury I don't see how Rollins option doesn't vest. The Phils are stuck with him through 2015. They're stuck with all these guys except Hamels and Lee.

I expect Lee to be traded at the deadline this year, but if the Phils don't take back some serious coin they won't get value for him. If they want 2-3 top prospects I'm thinking they'll need to take back at least $10-15 mil, depending on who they ask for. If the acquiring team has to take all of Lee's salary the Phils will be lucky to get one top 50 prospect.

Whoever gets Lee will owe him about $46 mil for the remainder of this year and next year (including his buyout). If his option vests they'll have to pay him about $61 mil through 2016.

NEPP: I'd take a flier on Cruz for one year at 10-12 mil. It could add some pop to a lineup that doesn't look particularly powerful or fast. It would also balance out the lefty-righty problem and allow Howard to bat with a RHH in front and behind him for the first time in his career. If Howard still doesn't hit you could swap him and Brown in the lineup below.

Utley could move to the 2-hole where I think he's a better fit at this stage. Of course this would mean Rollins leading off again, but I wouldn't mind seeing the following:


There isn't a single high-ceiling prospect right besides maybe Franco who will start the year at AA or AAA.

The talent they do have that have is at the lower levels and 2 years away.

We figured it out PA wise a month ago or so...Rollins needs about 100 GS if he's batting 1st/2nd and about 110-115 GS if he's batting down in the lineup in the 6-8 spots.

So, yes, barring a major injury, he's back in 2015.

Honestly, there is a fairly decent chance that Jimmy might bounce back and have a 2 Win season again after being basically replacement level (per bWAR but not fWAR) in 2013. Of course, there is a decent chance that he's completely shot too and is again replacement level but healthy. That would not be as fun.

Both Steamer and Oliver project him to be about a 2 Win player in 2014...and I tend to think that too. If he does that, he's well worth the $11 million he'll be making.

***There isn't a single high-ceiling prospect right besides maybe Franco who will start the year at AA or AAA.***

Well, Biddle is still a legit prospect but he's a pitcher so that doesnt help the lineup. I agree though that any of the other possible position players is in A ball at best and in cases like Crawford barely out of rookie ball and a good 4 years off from making an impact at the MLB level.

The system is, at least, slowly recovering from the trades and several years of terrible drafting since Arbuckle departed. Another high pick this year should help out as well as long as they hit on it (about a 50/50 proposition where they're drafting at #7)

It is my opinion that Byrd was paid too much. I was right then and am right now. What if he doesn't hit well? Is he worth 2 years? That's the thing, we don't know. That is why I believe RAJ jumped the shark to sign Byrd. He doesn't know what he is doing. Now if we discuss Ryan Howard's extension, that is one thing. It is in the past. We can't do anything about it. But RAJ is the one who signed him. Who else can we blame?

NEPP: Cruz at 1/10 or 1/12 is well worth giving up the second round pick.

On a day like today when things are boring and dire- let's remember the good times:

"They are conceding 2014 and looking to 2015. Players come off the books and money will flow like wine. Be patient for 1 more year

Posted by: dons | Monday, January 06, 2014 at 03:12 PM"

One of Rollins' options is sure to vest after 2014. Besides him, the only contracts coming off the books are Kendrick and Adams, so about 13 million, depending on KK's arbitration number.

NEPP: Before you responded to Duh Pat, keep in mind what he said:

"Point is, everyone's entitled to what they believe and they don't necessarily need stats etc. to back it up."

awh. By 2015, I doubt that Rollins, Brown, Lee, Paps, KK, etc.. will be around Philly. One way or another this team will be radically changed thru trades of Lee/ Brown. Platoon of Howard, Byrd. FA signings. I doubt that even RAJ will continue with these old folks. Of course even RAJ may be history by then

Why would they trade Brown by 2015?

Position prospects (who haven't played in MLB) who have a fair chance to make it:
Maikel Franco
Roman Quinn
Kelly Dugan
Tommy Joseph
Dylan Cozens
JP Crawford
Roman Quinn

Position prospects who have a good chance of being failed prospects:
Larry Greene
Andrew Pullin
Mitch Walding
Jiwan James
Tyson Gillies
Aaron Altherr
Kyrell Hudson
Leandro Castro
Anthony Hewitt
Seb Valle

Omit one of those Roman Quinns.

Aaron Altherr is changing his name to Aaaarroonn Aaltttherrr

clout: maybe add the second roman to the failed list. i think i'd put the thrice concussed joseph on the second list too.

I think Cruz is only worth 1/5 maybe 1/6 and could be had if RAJ waits it out.

i should have said "failed" list. not the literal past tense.

dons, sure, you can speculate all you want about who's going to be around in 2015, but right now there are a bunch of guys under contract, so we have to assume they'll be here.

Rollins isn't going anywhere if his option vests, because he's already said he won't accept a trade. Brown? Why would they trade a young cost-controlled slugger unless they could replace him with someone better - and who on that list of potential FA's is better?

I could go on, but you seem to be making arbitrary assumptions that there will be wholesale changes, and at this point in time I'm not sure you can do that.

clout, has assured me that Aaron Altherr is a prospect with a high ceiling:

Beyond Pythagorean Expectation: How Run Distributions Affect Win Percentage
by Kerry Whisnant

Although the Pythagorean expectation formula does well at predicting win percentage, the shape of the run distribution can also be a factor. Given two baseball teams with the same average runs per game, the team with the narrower run distribution tends to win more games. Modified formulas that take into account both the runs per game and the shape of the run distributions are presented. Also, slugging percentage has an inverse correlation with the width of the run distribution. A team slugging percentage .080 above average is worth about one extra win compared to the simple prediction using only runs scored and runs allowed.

I added the emphasis. Update your pythag narratives accordingly, please.

Heavy duty math for 1 AM.

Less math, and with a video. Rumor has it this talk was originally titled "Mini-Mart: Right Church, Wrong Pew"

The value of flexibility in baseball roster construction
Timothy C. Y. Chan
Douglas S. Fearing

Drawing inspiration from the theory of production flexibility in manufacturing networks, we provide the first optimization - based analysis of the value of positional flexibility (the ability of a player to play
multiple positions) for a major league baseball team in the presence of injury risk. First, we develop novel statistical models to estimate (1) the likelihood and duration of player injuries during the regular
season, and (2) fielding abilities at secondary fielding positions. Next, we develop a robust optimization model to calculate the degradation in team performance due to injuries. Finally, we apply this model to
measure the difference in performance between a team with players who have positional flexibility and a team that does not. We find that using 2012 rosters, flexibility was expected to create from 3% (White
Sox) to 15% (Cubs) in value for each team, measured in runs above replacement. In analyzing the results, we find that platoon advantages (e.g., having left - handed batters face right - handed pitchers) form
an important component of flexibility. As a secondary finding, based on our statistical analysis of injuries, we find that the likelihood of injury increases with age, but the duration of injury does not.

So find some other reason for doubting Howard will bounce back to historical averages.

Video at

Other interesting videos at

To the Phillies ownership: You want to be at least a little competitive next year, you want to get the fans at least a little excited, you want to put some butts in the seats instead of steadily losing them, then spend the damn money (you know you've got it) and sign Tanaka.

Cold anyone? I was outside this morning, and can safely say the entire witch is cold today.

awh. I may be wrong about Brown but he tailed off badly in Sep. only hitting .255. It is almost a sure thing they are not going to finish in a PO position with this team. Even the Mets and Marlins are going to be a little better. Nationals and Braves are way better. I want to see how Sandberg handles Rollins. He has no business at the top of the order

A balmy -7 today. Colder than a well-digger's ass.

How are the braves and nationals way better? What did the braves do? What offense did the nationals add?

I don't get why people think Dugan is a good prospect anymore. It took him 4.5 years to reach AA where he batted .264/.299/.472. Unlike Franco, Dugan's numbers took a nose dive when he was promoted from Clearwater to Reading. I'm not ready to call him a flat out bust yet, but certainly don't consider him a good prospect, let alone a top prospect. He doesn't even make Baseball America's top 10 Phils prospect list.

Is someone considering Dugan a top prospect? I think he has a good shot to make the pros as he is still age appropriate for his level (22 in AA and 23 in AAA this year). He doesn't have a ton of upside but could be a starter in a few seasons.

It was poorly written, but I'm not sure the poster meant that the Nationals and Braves are "way better" than they were this past year. I would not agree with that claim (I think the Nats will be somewhat better, while I'm skeptical on the Braves).

However, the poster also may have meant that the Nationals and Braves are "way better" *than the Phillies*, in which case they have a much, much stronger point.

He's probably in the 7-15 range of Phillies prospects. There are certainly red flags. Injuries being one of them. Since he was drafted out of HS, I wouldn't hold his time in the minors against him. Starting in AAA this year should be good for him.

Mick: Here is a pretty good writeup on Dugan:

Kelly Dugan, who was added to the 40-man roster by the Phillies a few weeks ago so as to protect him from next Thursday’s Rule 5 Draft, had himself a fine 2013 season as he hit .291/.352/.506 between Hi-A and Double-A. The 2009 second round pick (he was signed away from a commitment to Pepperdine whose baseball facility looks like this) will likely start 2014 back in Double-A but there’s a chance he might play in the Majors at some point next year if things go right for Dugan and if things go horribly wrong for the big club. His package of tools and his career path are both rather interesting.

But first let’s discuss the body because Dugan has a rather unique physical composition. Broad shouldered up to, his frame is extremely slight as you move down his body into the lower half. Dugan’s calves and ankles are pencil thin and more than one scout I’ve talked to has wondered if a body like Dugan’s can hold up under the rigors of a 162 game season. He has, after all, had lower body injury issues in the past. Most recently ankle and hamstring issues forced him to spend a chunk of the 2012 season at first base instead of the outfield. Some feared the leg issues would be chronic and considered a permanent move to first base a possibility. Baseball America listed Dugan (who didn’t crack their Phillies Top 30 last year) on the minor league depth chart as a first baseman heading into 2013 and most seemed certain that if Dugan was indeed slated for first base that there’d be no way his bat would profile there.

In 2013, Dugan played 100 of his 112 healthy games in the outfield and, for now, concerns about his body’s resiliency have been tranquilized to a degree. Dugan is listed at a lean 6’3”, 195lbs which is the sort of frame scouts crave when we’re talking about an 18 year-old Dominican pitcher but one which understandably causes some hemming and hawing when the prospect in question is a 23 year-old from the land of In-N-Out. While Dugan has room to fill out, it’s hard to say if he’s going to. I’m inclined to think some mass in the legs will be added as he ages.

Now, onto the tools. Dugan’s future is in an outfield corner and, defensively, that future seems bright. There’s plus defensive potential here. Despite being a below average runner (I’ve got Dugan timed right around 4.35 from home to first) Dugan covers an awful lot of ground in the outfield thanks to first step quickness and good reactions off the bat. I’ve seen him cut off balls that seemed like surefire doubles at launch and then use his plus arm to hold the hitter to a disappointing single. I once saw Dugan make a sliding catch near the foul pole at First Energy Stadium in Reading on a ball that took just 4.38 seconds to get there (for context, the ball on this play was in the air for 4.4 seconds and, based on Baseball Info Solutions’ data, falls in for a hit about 57% of the time. Imagine having to make a play in the same amount of time except on a ball that was hit near the right field foul pole). I think this is an above average defender in the outfield with an above average arm. He may be a little awkward looking at times but the job gets done.

Offensively, Dugan has the unteachable holy grail of hitting: bat speed. There’s explosion in the hands and leverage in the swing, enough that I’ve got the power graded out as fringe average and project it to solid average. Dugan’s bat path is very vertically oriented, kind of like Freddie Freeman’s, but he doesn’t have Freeman’s elite hand-eye coordination and so I think there’s going to be some swing and miss here. I’ve got a 40 on the bat now with a 50 ceiling. For the uninitiated, those hit and power grades project him to hit about .250-.270 with 17-25 homers on an annual basis. Despite his somewhat advanced age, the projection of Dugan’s hit tool is up for debate. He’s only been hitting left-handed full time since 2012 and there are scouts who think there’s more room to grow in this department than I do.

As always, the most volatile variable here is the approach. Dugan’s patience has lauded late in 2012 and in the first half of 2013. He spent equal time in Clearwater (56 games) and Reading (56 games) in 2013. In A-ball, Dugan walked 24 times in those 56 games. After his promotion to Reading, he garnered just 5 free passes. As with many of the Phillies prospects, Dugan’s patience will be an important thing to watch as he moves forward.

Ultimately I think Dugan becomes a second-division regular in right field but the ceiling is a little higher than that. The two biggest question marks right now are his approach and his ability to stay healthy. A full season against upper-level pitching will tell us more.

They say imitation is the sincerest form of flattery.

last night's 7:48PM post was not me. Also, I don't go by the handle of PDat.

And TTI I'm not Duh Pat. If you can't respect your elders, respect your betters.

And that concludes the allotment for Kelly Dugan discussion for Beerleaguer in 2014.

My only post related to Dugan was the inbriated guy behind me who yelled 'Dooogaaann!' each time he was up at an R-Phils game I attended.

Might be the only egit positional player who opens the year at Reading too depending upon what they do with Franco.

I'm not saying Altherr is a top prospect by any stretch of the imagination, however he should open the year in Reading and according to multiple sources he is considered a legit prospect.

"I don't get why people think Dugan is a good prospect anymore. It took him 4.5 years to reach AA where he batted .264/.299/.472. Unlike Franco, Dugan's numbers took a nose dive when he was promoted from Clearwater to Reading."

Those 4.5 years need to be put in context. He was 18 when he was drafted and he lost most of his first 2 seasons to injuries. The last 2 years, he has been healthy & has put up nice numbers.

The AA numbers also need to be put in context. A+ to AA is the biggest jump in the minors. Overall, Dugan's AA numbers still weren't that bad; the power carried over from A+ but the BA & OBP did not. That's could be a sample size issue, an adjustment issue, or a little of both.

If he stinks it up this year, his star will diminish substantially but, for now, he's a good prospect. Not Maikel Franco good, but good. He'd show up higher on the Phillies' prospect lists if he played a premium defensive position or had better tools. But given the Phillies' specific needs, I'll take a corner outfielder with an .858 combined OPS over some of these non-performing toolsheds who show up in most Phillies top 10 lists.

Legit Prospects in the Phillies upper levels:


And because of Morgan's injury, he may no longer be a legit guy.

Everyone else is a suspect. And even worse, Biddle is coming through a system notorious for not developing pitchers. If you could consider all Phillies pitchers to have one hand tied behind their backs, compared to the good development systems, then you'd get the idea. Pitchers enter the Phillies minor leagues with every pitch they will leave it with, and somehow, their control will usually take a hit as they progress as well. It's like a black hole of pitching.

And you wonder why I end every post with:
Tanaka or bust. That is all.

Aaron Altherr would be a quintessential example of a guy who, to me, should not be ranked higher than Dugan. There's only a 4-month age difference, and one guy has hit for 2 straight years and held his own at AA; the other guy hasn't distinguished himself since a 225-PA season in the Rookie Leagues 3 years ago.

Good writeup BAP.

BAP - Altherr didn't have a bad season last year. .275/.337/.455 out of CF isn't shabby. I'm not saying he is great shakes at all, but there is definite upside there - if he taps into it. The odds are against it however.

I'd imagine that they'll start Franco off in AAA and hope he's ready for the majors by Sept.

Dugan will almost certainly start in AA.

What's the projected OF in Reading then? Dugan, Altherr and Jiwan James?

If Altherr can play centerfield, that gives him a huge value edge over Dugan. And Dugan's good hitting is rather reliant on his ~.400 BABIP.

Red: Yeah, Altherr wasn't terrible last year. He's certainly a prospect, just not one I'm terribly excited about. I could see him having a career as a backup outfielder along the lines of, say, a right-handed Roger Bernadina.

"And Dugan's good hitting is rather reliant on his ~.400 BABIP."

You're misusing BABIP. Good hitters have good BABIPs. The idea that BABIPs normalize to .300 is a concept for pitchers, not hitters.

Reading will have a toolshed of 'toolsy prospects' again though especially if Hewitt, James, and a few others open the season again there.

BAP --

I didn't say we should regress it to .300, but we shouldn't expect him to keep it at .400.

Redburb:I don't see Dugan starting the season at AAA after spending just half a season at AA and not hitting that well. If he has a good first half he could go to AAA, but I tend to think he'll be at AA all year. Just my opinion.

TTI: I read the same writeup on PhuturePhillies or Crashburn Alley, I forget which one. Interesting piece.

While I agree with BAP that the move from A+ to AA is the biggest jump in the minors, Reading has a small park which helped Dugan retain his power numbers, but his BA dropped .54 points and his OBP was killed by his inability to draw walks (5).

I don't have a crystal ball and don't scout these players. Like most of us I only know what I read and see numerically. Maybe the kid surprises me and turns out to be good major league player. I'd rather be wrong and see him helping the Phils than be right so I can say I told you so. Who'd remember anyway?

ramsey: True. But I would also expect a 23-year old to keep improving.

Mick - I should've clarified. I think that Dugan will be in AAA at some point this year. That would be absolutely age appropriate. If he has a solid year, he will probably be a September call-up since he is on the 40 man.

Go take a gander at Dugan's BABIPs by year on Fangraphs.

I wouldn't be shocked to see him post one above .350 going forward.

"I'd rather be wrong and see him helping the Phils than be right so I can say I told you so. Who'd remember anyway?"

The Beerleaguer Elite keeps extensive files on this stuff. If Dugan turns out to be a good major league player, you will never be able to write another post on Beerleaguer without someone responding, "Keep in mind that TheMick is the guy who said that Kelly Dugan wasn't a good prospect."

BAP --

23 is old for A+. He might improve on those numbers, or he might not.

I have a pet theory that when a player is too advanced for his level, this often manifests in a high BABIP. Now Dugan was not super old for A+ (especially since he missed some time with injury), but I'm at least somewhat worried that his hitting won't translate to higher levels.

ramsey - Dugan turned 23 in AA last year. Will be 24 in September.

I'll add Introspect to the categories of Prospect and Suspect. Introspects are guys like Galvis & Ruf who are no longer prospects but are suspects at the major league level. They're pondering the future changes that need to take place both inside and outside themselves.

Redburb --

Right. He has a September birthday, so he's old for his year.

The "on schedule" level for a 2009 HS draftee would have been AA last year. So his A+ numbers (and last year's A numbers) should be discounted somewhat since he was a year old for his level.

I agree that he was age-appropriate for AA last year, but his numbers there weren't exactly inspiring (except for the power).

Ah I see. Thanks ramsey.

bap @ 1252-- That's why I read Beerleaguer.

Way better than the Phillies. Sorry it was poorly written

Good post by BAP at 11:54.

I like this portion specifically:

"He'd show up higher on the Phillies' prospect lists if he played a premium defensive position or had better tools. But given the Phillies' specific needs, I'll take a corner outfielder with an .858 combined OPS over some of these non-performing toolsheds who show up in most Phillies top 10 lists."

I said something similar to this over a year ago and was labeled a racist (not by BAP) though because I was highlighting race in some way.

cs. Do you not believe that adding Blevens-McClouth and Fister makes the Nationals much better? Hope this is better written

Why is it that when people talk about "toolsy" players, they invariably mean 4-tool players who don't have a hit tool?

I like toolsheds that aren't missing the lawnmower!

BAP: haha I have to believe you sit on this Beerleauger Elite Board, no? I could be wrong, but I think I've seen many a prophetic post here that didn't turn out as written. BTW if Dugan becomes a good major league player I'll gladly eat the crap you and the rest of the "Beerleaguer Elite's" throw my way...and if he's a bust out that never sees the inside of CBP without buying a ticket, what then?

Maybe he'll be the next Marlon Byrd and we'll get to debate how much the Phils should spend to retain him when he hits free agency?

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EST. 2005

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