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Saturday, January 11, 2014

Comments

I like your thoughts, with th following changes:

3. Chooch
4. Howard
5. Byrd
6. Brown

it seems the concensus here is that uts is no longer a 3 hitter. so you've got to put him somewhere else. leadoff seems as good as any. i' like the idea of brown in the 3 spot, too. but i don't hold out much hope of seeing byrd batting cleanup. couldn't get much better protection than howard though. i'd like to see ryne try mike's lineup. might take some pressure off howard to be the saviour.

Pitcher 8. Revere 9. You'll never see it.

i wonder if ryne ever batted the pitcher eighth in LV.

the problem with howard batting 4 is that he is too often leading off an inning. if he gets on by single or walk the only safe way to score him is a HR or triple. byrd and brown following howard increases that chances of that outcome.

Like your version, Mike.
Phealin's version a little better.

But I think our most frequent lineup will wind up being:
Revere L
Rollins S
Utley L
Howard L
Byrd R
Brown L
Ruiz R
Ashe L
Pitcher

Bubba: I think you are probably right.

With all the different lineups Sandberg tried last year Utley never batted leadoff. He needs to break up the Utley-Howard 3/4 combo IMHO, but I don't think it will be with Utley batting leadoff.

I don't see any way Revere bats 9th. There are a lot of ifs with this team. Not getting production from some players they expect could be devastating. Sandberg's not going to do something no other NL manager is doing on top of possibly managing to one of the worst records in the league. He'll want to manage again some day.

I like Utley in the leadoff. His obp will get even better when he knows his focus is to get on base. I have thought this for years. Jimmy is a month away from going from 2nd to 8th or 9th if he doesn't perform as a number two hitter should. I'd only start him there as a means of splitting the lefties and righties. The popouts and flyballs have to be cut down. He was 131st of 140 qualifying mlb hitters last year in performance. You have to split Howard and Utley because if you don't they see nothing but lefties from the 6th or 7th inning on. That is 1/3rd of the season folks.

Jroll may be a switch hitter but the way he hits he should be the guy hitting 8th or 9th. They don't need a guy who pops up or hits weakly in a major spot unless he has a major turnaround, something a few of these players need if they want to do anything more than be a five hundred ball club

Mike, your most creative post yet. Nice job!

Of course, there's this:


I stopped making BL my "first go-to" each day when the threads became stale regurgitations of CSN drivel, after JW cashed in.

Posted by: Willard Preacher | Monday, December 23, 2013 at 03:58 PM

I'm in. Been saying this all along.

Utley is the best, most instinctive base runner I've ever seen. And I go back to the 1967 team, when I was 6 years old.

I was at Phil's Tavern in Broad Axe last night and my wife noticed that who was sitting right behind me but Chris Wheeler. My back started acting up, ahem, so I had to lean back and couldn't help but overhear some of his conversation. I heard him say that he didn't want a 25 game contract but wanted to broadcast every game. It was obvious that he was hurt but I didn't hear him bad mouth anybody, he just sounded like a guy who got a shock and was trying to deal with it.

All the staff stopped and wished him the best; he was most gracious.

OK, a few points here....
1- Utley leading off is fine if you can convince J-it's all about me-Roll to bat 2nd.
2- Just because 'Ruin Tomorrow' SAYS Byrd has power doesn't make it so. Two 20 HR seasons, with a career avg of less than NINE per year means otherwise.
3- Howard HAS to bat 4th, and if he isn't deserving, that means the order as a whole is meaningless.
4- This whole discussion pretty much proves Amaro has left me HOPELESS for 2014.
UGH.

Utley may (and probably should) bat leadoff, but there is no way on earth that Byrd is hitting cleanup with Howard behind him. In fact, I'd bet money that it won't happen all season even once.

I'd pick up Vernon Wells to add to this lineup for three reasons: (1) He'd come cheap (2) There's a reasonable chance that he may rebound in the NL (3) he bats right (4) he can play a credible center field (5) there's a very real chance that he may outperform Ben Revere both in the field and at the plate, and for the same money.

This makes it possible to package Revere with a higher dollar contract to move some dead salary off of the books (Pap) and possibly get something worthwhile in return.

That being said, my lineup would be:

1) Chase Utley (L)
2) Jimmy Rollins (S)
3) Marlon Byrd (R)
4) Ryan Howard (L)
5) Carlos Ruiz (R)
6) Domonic Brown (L)
7) Vernon Wells (R)
8) Cody Asche (L)
9) Pitcher

Without Wells:

1) Chase Utley (L)
2) Marlon Byrd (R)
3) Jimmy Rollins (S)
4) Ryan Howard (L)
5) Domonic Brown (L)
6) Carlos Ruiz (R)
7) Ben Revere (L)
8) Cody Asche (L)
9) Pitcher

Yes, I know that's 5 reasons.

Vernon Wells is going to out-perform Ben Revere? Vernon Wells?

Vernon Wells is pure garbage and would be the worst player on the team if he were signed by us.

Over the past 3 years, Wells has posted an 81 OPS+ with a pathetic .267 OBP with terrible defense. He has no positives, he doesn't hit LHP, he doesn't hit RHP and he doesn't play defense.

There is zero reason to even consider him when you have Mayberry who is a far superior player at this point...and Mayberry isn't even that good.

Clause 3686.54 A paragraph 17

Whosoever shall post the 4th Beerleaguer thread of the week will be eligible to go to "2nd base" with Dei Lynam in a broom closet of their choosing.

All I have to say is: Jrfinger and Jordan Hall, he who hesitates yadda yadda.

The Wizzer cannot be stopped. F- Seidman

FWIW, I agree with the thread header that Utley would be an ideal leadoff hitter...if we had the supporting cast to make it happen, it would be a very smart lineup choice.

Maybe if we were to sign another bat like Nelson Cruz, I could see it as that'd knock Byrd down in the lineup rather than having him batting 4th to break up the LHBs.

I think I'm going to be watching this team out of the corner of one eye so I don't get the full brunt if it's ugly. Pretty much did that last year and it seemed to have worked out. Used both eyes a lot more once Sandberg took over.

That is not going to happen. Many here myself included made the suggestion for years because Rollins was never a natural leadoff lifetime low OBP not to mention he can't walk to save his life. The Phillies are much tooooooo conservative for such moves.
Also, it would be a slap in the face of RAJ to bat Revere in the pitcher's spot.
This is silly.

***not to mention he can't walk to save his life***

Not exactly true. His BB% isn't bad at all, its just that his batting average has never been high enough to make it matter.

BB%
2010: 10.2
2011: 9.2
2012: 8.9
2013: 8.9

That 8.9% is the best among all Phillies regulars last year not named Darin Ruf. Better than Utley, Revere, etc.

Though I will mention that over that full period (2010-2013), Utley is the better BB guy:

Utley: 10.2 BB%
Rollins: 9.2 BB%

If he stopped swinging and took pitches more often his batting average would be higher and so would his walks and OBP.

Based on what exactly?

He's an .826 OPS hitter when he puts it in play on the 1st pitch.

The last time his OPS were over .800 was also in 2007 (also his last good year. We can go back and forth over the first or second or third pitch. Rollins has not inspired confidence since 2007--not as a leadoff and I don't even think he should be up second unless that's the best the Phils can do. Utley always struck me as a great leadoff hitter. But I also thought Abreu would be a great leadoff and that also didn't happen in Philadelphia.

Your own stats show a deterioration in Rollins performance in the last 3 years. Let's not beat a dead horse.

I am unconventional in the sense that I believe the best bat should be up first. And so on down the line. Think about it when you played a pickup game. Invariably the lineup was best first worst last.
Frankly I think the kids have it right.

His career BB% is 7.7 so its not really a deterioration...he definitely walks more now than he did early in his career. 2010's spike to 10.2% was more of an outlier than a number he's declined from.

The point remains is that Jimmy isn't a good leadoff hitter but its not the result of his BB rate but rather his lower batting average. His overall OBP is lower due to the AVG more than the BB% is all.

Overall, obviously Utley would be the better leadoff option in a perfect scenario.

I understand your point and agree. I never meant to suggest that its just OBP or BB. They are of course a function of his other skills and you are right that the bottom line is that he is not good enough as a hitter. Had he been he would have been walked more.

Ryne has to break up Utley and Howard. Otherwise they will both see the same lefty reliever back-to-back in the later innings of every game! Putting Utley at leadoff will take away some of his power.Revere will steal 40-50 bases, plus go from first to third on Utley's hits to right.
1. Revere-L
2. Utley-L
3. Byrd-R
4. Howard-L
5. Ruiz-R
6. Brown-L
7. Rollins-S
8. Asche-L
9. pitcher-?

You know since Ryne has not even tried to put Utley at the top while he was experimenting let's move on. Does anyone have a take on whether Maikel Franco was a one year wonder at Reading or whether he is the real McCoy and ready to join?

Since we know Utley will never hit leadoff on this team, and Revere will never ever ever hit ninth, let's move on. A repost from the last thread.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Adam Morgan just had shoulder surgery and Shane Watson will soon. That's to of the top arms in the system gone for at least another year if not forever. And, of course, Pettibone ended the season injured. And MAG, the big offseason signing, is a medical question mark, apparently.

And people wonder why it's important to break the bank for Masahiro Tanaka. Go Big Or Go Home. Tanaka or bust. That is all.

I dont think Franco is a one-year wonder and I dont think he's ready for an MLB job right now.

Most people seem to think he's a Top 50 MLB prospect at this point so he's got some good upside despite the red flags (extremely low BB rate)

Keep in mind, lineup research (and the optimizer) says your best hitters should go into the 2 and 4 spots. I'd put Utley in one of those spots.

Your weakest hitters go 3 and 8. No one in MLB believes this even though research shows it to be the case (although oddly enough some teams in the 1950s batted their pitcher 8th and HR hitter 2nd) so it would never happen.

NEPP: Franco does have a low walk rate, but more important is his BB/K ratio and that's quite good for a guy with his power.

I could see him being one of those .285/.330/.500 kind of guys and if he is, he'll be one of the better thirdbasemen in the league.

I think he's going to be a star and, as you know, I rarely say that about Phillies prospects.

I agree that BB/K is more important but his BB% is still extremely low regardless. It's a concern.

Franco earned an opportunity to show his talents in Clearwater this spring. I'm looking forward to watching his plate savy in the final weeks if he's with the team.

NEPP and clout, is there any precedent where a kid in the minors with a low BB rate was taught to change his approach, learned to walk more, and carried it into MLB?

awh: Franco's minor league career walk rate is about 7%. There are many examples, but I'll use one I remember: In his first two years in MLB, Ozzie Smith's walk rate was 7% and 5.7% It then jumped to double digits at age 25, where it pretty much remained for most of his career. Franco begins his age 21 season this year. I'm not as concerned about this as NEPP.

Rollins has never been the "prototypical" leadoff hitter. But todays game is not played the same as years ago. The days of the Lou Brocks, Vince Colemans, etc. are in the past. While Rollins is definitely winding down his career, I'll take is 2007 any year. How many times did Revere come up with a runner in scoring position and he not drive the ball deep enough to score the runner from third. I see his role as a pinch runner/spot starter. Also with his lack of a throwing arm, he cannot be out there everyday. Hard to watch when runners go from first to second on a routine fly ball to center. If only he could play infield!

Rollins, just might be a very good hitter if he'd stop swinging at any pitch above his belt, which he cannot hit. He's either too stupid or too stubborn to understand that very simple conclusion to his hitting problem.

Good idea to put Utley up front and see if it works. He's a professional all the way and would do whatever necessary to get on base.

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