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Thursday, January 16, 2014

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Why offer that much instead of just going to arbitration. Really tho, who cares

It's about market value for a starting pitcher with his history.

It'll be interesting to see how KK does this year without being under the constant scorn of Rich "throw strikes G-d dammit" Dubee.

yeah, Sil. and the inevitable mound visit, usually later than it should have been, where he verbally kicks kk in the shins for nibbling. followed by kk throwing strikes.

what's the over/under in how long the new coach survives? he sure has his work cut out for him.

I think they could've gotten KK for 3 million. I don't have to back that up with logic.

Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Gonzalez and Hernandez.

By my reckoning, that's two No. 1s and three No. 5s.

Lee probably is still one of the best seven starters in all of baseball, and Hamels is in the top 10-15 range.

The three other starters are in the 121-150 range.

Looks like a WC team to me.

Kendrick's sad second half season was a result of anticipated separation anxiety disorder.

I taught him everything he knooooooooos but how to pull back on the yoke.

TTI: HAHA

I don't think Kendrick is a true #5 starter. He has shown the ability to be a #3, a #4, or a #5. The reality for him is probably somewhere in the middle which bumps him up a little.

( Inside CBP War Room)
Rube: Okay, we had to give KK 7 big ones...
Dallas :7 grand, that us crazy, I hope you said no.
Charlie: We still getting Tanaka , right? You say the word I am on the plane with the bag full o cash.
Rube:No, I am thinking we get Gaudin and wrap this up.
Charlie: Tanaka or nothin
Gillick: I got Moyer on speed dial. He is ready to roll.

(Door opens, Ed Wade strolls in with sunglasses on)
Wade: Gentleman, clear out a locker. I got Mr. Myers flying in on the redeye. He is stretched and ready to start for only $5 mil a season.
Rube: Will three seasons get it done?
Wade: Yep
Rube: I love you, man.

1 year, ~1.6 million to Mayberry.

Good call Harry. I think the alphabet War Room may also work. A(Amaro), B(Bowa), C(Charlie), D(Dallas), E(ED), F(Freedman-new stat analyst guy), G(Gillick).

Guyess we'll find out if KK's last half of 2013 was injury related or true form.

Kendrick has averaged 1.0 fWAR or 1.4 bWAR the last three years. Steamer and Oliver project him to be a 1.1 or 0.9 fWAR pitcher in 2014. Calling Kendrick a No. 5 pitcher is being generous.

I think there's a fundamental flaw with the way teams compare salaries with replacement values. No one seems to understand the notion of an option value. Kendrick is locked in for 7m. He will not be jettisoned.

I've got to think that the ability to cheaply cycle through a number of possible pitchers would result in a better product at a lower total cost.

Options are absurdly valuable in finance (where it is easy to quantify their value). The same dynamic should hold here too despite it being difficult to quantify the value of the option.

Ok

Freedman: Gentlemen, may I just urge a little bit of caution? I have been doing some computer models on 15 affordable options...

Dallas: Wo, Wo, Wo, who let this guy in here?

Charlie: No computers, it ain't natural in baseball.

Wade: Mr.Freedman, the crowd has spoken. ( Wade secretly rubs the 666 birthmark beneath his hairline).

Rube: There's a time and place for computers. This is not it. If there are no further questions, I am going to my vacation home. My cell phone will be off.

TTI, I would agree on Kendrick, he has pitched like a #3 in the past. The question is whether he can sustain that type of performance for an entire season. He has yet to do so, and to get a big contract next offseason, this is the year he needs to show it.

As far as MAG and Faunandez are concerned, the video I posted on MAG gives me hope that he can be a #4, and Faunandez is probably a #5, but he has demonstrated the ability to be a #2 in the past, if he can keep the ball down. I think the chance of him rebounding to that level again is very remote, but, who knows, he may catch lightning in a bottle and surprise us all.

I would rank the Phillies pitchers this way:

1-1-4-4/5-5, the "5" being Faunandez, unless he proves he's better than that.

With health and a little luck, they may get 500 IP out of those three.

Meyer, I like it, with slight modification:

The Alphabet WAR Room!

I may start using that interchangeably with "r00ba and the FOols".

...and no new RFD thread.

I miss JW...

I tend to think its more likely that his 2nd half sucked due to a combination of the concussion effects and the shoulder irritation rather than him suddenly forgetting how to pitch.

Its far more likely that he bounces back than completely implodes in 2014.

I wonder if there is any FA option that would help us more than Frandsen/Mayberry in the $2.5 million range.

KK is fine at that price for the year and he did take one for the team last year in the 2nd half pitching hurt because they were so desperate for healthy starters.

Still desperately need another starter and they apparently won't sign any more MLB guaranteed contracts.

More and more even though Biddle isn't on the 40-man roster right now I think he is called up by midseason if he gets out to a solid start. Simply don't have a known #6 guy right now.

It is Martin/MAG and then ??? if you consider Pettibone as the #5.

NEPP, now that there is cost certainty with Mayberry, and because Byrd can backup CF, I would not be surprised if Mayberry is moved before opening day.

They got a RP (Lincoln) for a backup catcher, and may be able to get the same for Mayberry.

Nieves, Frandsen, and now Mayberry have guaranteed deals and will be on the bench on Opening Day barring no injuries. That leaves 2 spots and an ill-conceived bench.

Need another OF and someone who can play SS. Figure one will either be a switch-hitter or LH bat.

Phils have to move either Mayberry/Ruf. You can't have both on the Opening Day roster unless the Phils are content to have an almost all RH bats off the bench to PH.

MG:

Lee
Hamels

KK
MAG
Faunandez (place them in any order)

Pettibone
Martin (we've been told he'll be stretched out)

That's it for the 40-man.


As they said in Lethal Weapon: "Pretty thin."

"Kendrick has averaged 1.0 fWAR or 1.4 bWAR the last three years. Steamer and Oliver project him to be a 1.1 or 0.9 fWAR pitcher in 2014. Calling Kendrick a No. 5 pitcher is being generous. "

Problem with doing a 3-year average is that he pitched out of the bullpen for most of 2011 & the start of 2012. And since WAR is a "counting stat," a reliever's WAR is necessarily going to be lower. Even last year, which was clearly KK's worst season of the last 3, he had a 1.7 WAR, which was the highest of his last 3 years. Either those Oliver and Steamer projections are failing to account for that, or they're assuming he's going to be so bad that he's going to lose his spot in the starting rotation. In reality, if he makes 30+ starts this year, his WAR will probably be at least as good as last year, and probably slightly better.

Every time someone cites WAR as a valid measurement of performance, I can't help but to smile and think of those folks in Texas who believe that intelligent design is a valid scientific theory to explain life on Earth.

No way that big league brain trust even lets Freedman (if that is his name) into the same room. At best he is permitted to pass an occasional handwritten note to Ruben.

Kendrick is fine for what he is. The problem is that the Phils have zero depth in their rotation again this year.

The only chance they have to have an above average rotation is if their top projected #5 starters give them close to ~30 starts each and if Hernandez isn't plagued by HRs.

WAR is fine as a summary composite measure to compare players' performance but people have to realize it is a composite measure with the some severe limitations when evaluating certain types of players & is heavily dependent upon the component measures & weighting that go into it.

MG: The hell they do. It is the be all and end all.

MAG:

Normally you would think the Phils would triumph him a bit more in what has been a horribly slow and boring offseason.

Instead the only thing that Amaro has said about him is that he has some durability concerns about MAG as a starter and that he is a 'unknown quantity.'

McGlure watched MAG pitch in person and you figure if the results had been really positive the Phils would have tried to leak a story to one of the Phils' sports writers who are desperate this time of year for any actual stories to fill space/meet deadlines. Instead there has been nada.

MAG will still be one of the 2-3 most interesting and compelling individuals to watch in camp but the 'no new isn't good news' adage has me wondering just how well he'll perform as a starter.

MG: You talk all the time about how controlling and shady the Phillies are with stories like this and now you expect them to be forthright with everything?

"WAR is fine as a summary composite measure to compare players' performance but people have to realize it is a composite measure with the some severe limitations when evaluating certain types of players & is heavily dependent upon the component measures & weighting that go into it."


MG, I agree completely.

An example I'll give you is WAR's evaluation of 1B. IMHO it does not properly quantify the contributions of top 1B, despite it's defenders saying there are positional adjustments.

For instance, Ryan Howard in 2006 was not even in the top 10 in rWAR, despite a monstrous season. Even Chris Davis had a higher rWAR last season, despite not putting up nearly the numbers offensively that Howard did in 2006.

Sure, there can be annual adjustments, but as such it becomes even more problematic.

TTI - No and if MAG had pitched well or got a resounding 'LG' (Looking Good) the Phils definitely would have mentioned it.

Will,
I think you got a pretty good core of Intelligent Design believers for 6, 7 hours of cross PA driving. They are idiots but they are here.

According to ESPN, Kendrick's WAR for each of the last three years was -
2011: 1.6 (Rank was 94th, tied with six others.)
2012: 1.3 (Rank was 134th, tied with eight others.)
2013: 1.0 (Rank was 182nd.)

I think calling Kendrick a No. 5 is a fair assessment of his ability.

Will and Harry, if we dismiss the idea that God (or a 'higher' power) exists, then, by definition, intelligent design is impossible.

But from a purely intellectual standpoint, if there is a God, why can't there be intelligent design?

It seems to me that unless one dismisses the possibility that God exists, that intelligent design is possible.

For the record, I believe in evolution, but I also believe in being intellectually honest, and hardly think it's constructive to mock the intelligence of other people to make myself feel superior.

It's a form of bigotry, really.

Derek: From opening day through July (which included 4 or 5 of his mysteriously-horrendous starts not long before his injury was announced) he had 138.1 IP and a 4.29 ERA.

If your 5th starter is averaging 6.1 IP per start, with an ERA under 4.5 (average of less than 3 runs/start), then you have an unbelievably good 5th starter.

Look at how dogs have evolved, and have been breed by people in the last few hundred years to create all of these different varieties and compare that to the concepts of ID. A minister tried to tell me God created all these different dogs for the 5000 years Earth existed and we just kind of "missed them".

awh: While I don't disagree with your assessment, the creation of the Intelligent Design movement was - itself - an exercise in intellectual dishonesty, and openly so.

The WEDGE document is pretty damning.

Basically, the most important thing for any Phillie to do is avoid injury. Because once the Phils medical staff gets a hold of you, you are not going to be right for the rest of the season. Let's just pray that Kendrick has had enough time away from those clowns in the off season to actually recover from whatever was wrong with him in the second half (that the medical staff was somehow exacerbating).

The point, awh, is that intelligent design is not science. It is religion masquerading as science. By definition, science explains the natural forces that make things happen without recourse to God. So you can believe that God exists and has steered the course of natural evolution, but thats not a scientific theory, and by itself the complexity of life can't prove anything scientific about God.

Phillibuster - Do you judge a pitcher by how he has performed at his best? Over his career as a whole? Over his recent years? Or some other method?

WAR. What is it good for? Absolutely, nothing.

Harry, because ONE minister (without, pwrhaps, the scientific background) doesn't understand the concept of ID doesn't mean anything. Do you think that's a valid sample size? It sounds to me like he's conflating creationism with ID, and may not have the intellectual or emotional capacity to separate the two.

Besides, there are non-Christians (Ben Stein among them) who believe in ID.

The fact that you bring up a minister makes me wonder whether you are engaging in a subtle form of anti-Christian bigotry.

As I stated above, if God exists, then the possibility of some form of ID cannot be dismissed.

BTW, as a dog lover and owner, I can safely say that dogs are not classified as "varieties". They are classified as "breeds".

Derek: Well, so personally I don't tend to judge any player by WAR, because I think it's largely a useless statistic for anything except vague "so-and-so was better than so-and-so" verbal arguments.

However, I tend to fall into the group of those who believe that Kendrick's two injuries (concussion and shoulder-something-or-other) are the primary reason his performance plummeted so fast. As such, I don't think that he's a 3.70 ERA guy, but I think he's a 4.00-4.25 ERA guy, who'll give you more than 6IP/Start on average.

Incidentally, by the end of the season he was still averaging more than 6 IP/start and averaging 3.17 runs/start. Again, something you'd easily take from your 5th starter, and - unless you're the 2011 Phillies - your 4th as well.

"From opening day through July (which included 4 or 5 of his mysteriously-horrendous starts not long before his injury was announced)..."


Buster, Kendirck, IIRC, got the concussion in his last start in June.

Thus, we can probably somewhat discount his starts thereafter.

"Basically, the most important thing for any Phillie to do is avoid injury. Because once the Phils medical staff gets a hold of you, you are not going to be right for the rest of the season."
.
.
timr, wind the thread!

"By definition, science explains the natural forces that make things happen without recourse to God."

timr, I would modify that:

Science ATTEMPTS to explain the natural forces that make things happen without recourse to God.

There is probably more we don't know that what we do.

We can only hope there is intelligent design applied by some future GM to the rebuilding process needed for the Phillies to re-evolve into a championship caliber club. halleluiah, amen , I need a drink.

awh: Yeah, but I figured that, for the sake of incorporating some of the doubt around his overall abilities would make it a more agreeable comparison.

Especially considering I don't think he's realistically a 3.59 ERA pitcher (his mark at the end of June), I thought it a better determinant of his overall level of ability.

Wow, that first sentence of mine was... Something else.

That should read I included the July numbers to incorporate some of the doubt into the comparison, which I thought would make it more agreeable overall (and also reduce the smallness of the sample size).

Better drop Bowa from the AWR and add Beelzebub.

As for Mayberry at 1/1.6? Eh, I can't get too upset about it. Probably would have gotten around that in arb, and is likely worth around that much based on overall ability in this market.

Now, if he starts on an extended basis, that's going to make him look worse... But there aren't many MLB-level starters making $1.7MM in their fourth season for a reason, and that's because they tend not to be starting-caliber.

Awh,
I dislike trashing any faith as I feel the same about all human beliefs. The minister is an in-law and his day job is teaching Biology at a private prep school in Missouri. He grew up in Butler County. He learned this here.

I don't believe in God or any great being, I will admit I could be completely wrong but that is for me to find out the only way I can, I guess.
I am sorry that I said idiots. I just dislike when people believe their knowledge is the only knowledge. I dislike that this country has a separate set of news for everybody and nobody believes anybody else's stuff.

"The point, awh, is that intelligent design is not science. It is religion masquerading as science."

timr, that is what you believe.

The reason the creationists don't BELIEVE in evolution is that there is still much that evolution does not explain.

We can argue can and forth all day and we won't convince each other of anything. We can argue deism vs. theism, ID, creationism, evolution, Christianity, Islam, Judaism, Hinduism, etc.

I prefer to stick to baseball here, and not, as Harry and Will did, look down my nose at people who don't think the way I do.

How can anyone look at Adam Eaton and still believe in a benevolent omnipotence?

Yes, you are right. Ben Stein and other conservatives on the payroll believe it. I will no longer look down my nose.

"I dislike that this country has a separate set of news for everybody and nobody believes anybody else's stuff."

Harry, that's true in other countries as well, always has been, always swill be.

the only things that change are the topics of discussion and arguments.

Centuries ago the arguments were over whether the earth was flat, before that as Christianity was forming there were huge theological differences and schisms in the Church, and before that Greek and Roman philosophers had a go at one another. The Far East had Shintoism and Confucianism...

I could go on and on...

Harry, looks like you are now engaging in anti-conservative bigotry.

So much for this comment: "...I feel the same about all human beliefs."

awh: I guess the language about "masquerading" is a bit on the subjective side, but the first sentence is absolutely true: by definition, science is a set of explanations for NATURAL phenomena. That excludes explanations that point to the spiritual or otherworldly. Its not my opinion or my belief about what science is, it is a fact.

People can absolutely believe what they want about why the world and its natural forces exist, but thats not science.

In any case, yes, back to baseball.

I am not allowed to dislike that, right, your awh ness?

I do feel the same. I don't believe.
I also don't believe in investing 25 mil a year on Howard. Or that Rube should be GM.
Free country, just like many other countries.

To be more Phillies-centric, KK looks practically Bruntlett-esque in that shot. Just needs to grow out the stub a little.

Ok, a lot.

Harry, you're the one that wrote

"I just dislike when people believe their knowledge is the only knowledge."

When you engage in the type of behavior (through the written word or otherwise) that is dismissive of other people's beliefs, whether they be religious, political, social or otherwise, it's a form of bigotry and/or intolerance. Period.

Nobody cares

I, myself, am an atheist, but the evolution vs intelligent design argument has less to do with a belief in god and more to do with blind faith in words written by men.

The evidence for evolution is overwhelming, but it is plausible to believe that the evolutionary process was set into motion by a god or gods. Believing that all life on earth was simply created from as it is from a heavenly schematic and has undergone no evolutionary changes is just plain ignorance.

So god or no god, the theory of evolution is as valid as the theory of relativity, and the "intelligent design" fiasco isn't even worthy of a discussion. You might as well attempt to present a valid argument that the sun revolves around the earth. When outdated concepts are dismissed, they warrant no further discussion.

At any rate, awh, there is no "bigotry" involved. Wrong is wrong, no matter how passionate your faith is.

When someone believes something so ridiculous/ludicrous that it is non-rationale, it isn't bigotry.

Believing that human and all present creatures magically appeared in their present form relatively recently (10-100k years ago) according to the Book of Genesis is a ridiculous belief and means that you also have to discount a host of other physical sciences too including physics, chemistry, etc.

Yet it isn't a fringe belief in the US and if you look at various recent surveys 30-40% of people in the US believe this. In a number of demographic segments, it is the dominant belief.

US is also the only industrialized country too that has nearly such a high number of people who believe such utter nonsense too.

My grandson wanted a Phillies hat. I told him I would buy him one if he took a dump in it because that's what the team deserves. Giving up on Ryan Vogelsong and passing on drafting Kershaw and Trout! Crap for brains organization!

So go ahead and put me in the "anti-" whatever movement with Will S. and you keep believing we are all out to get you or that we are working for Satan to test your meddle or whatever, and enjoy your kingdom of Heaven that you are entirely entitled to because you believe your flavor of "the truth" and that the Earth is close to 6000 years old whether or not scientists (Christian or otherwise) routinely date objects to hundreds of millions of years old. I have no problem with you believing this, I don't.
I don't agree with conservatives or ultra liberals, I don't want to believe in absolutes presented by MSNBC or Fox, neither can be 100% true.
If you want to be right or wrong, knock yourself out. I just don't want to propagate something that can be knocked down by a trip to a zoo or by opening an encyclopedia.

I want it to be known that I agree looking at this zoo's giraffe is just as "factual" looking at another zoo's giraffe. There is no giraffe bias.

Somewhere a laundry facility is quickly running out of soap boxes.

This thread is already worse than the Ronny Cedeno 400+ comment thread. Ugh.

I think smithy is 10 times more brilliant than me posting that hat thing here. This is that kind of forum.

And here I thought BL couldn't possibly get any worse.

BL: your one-stop site for religious debates and 5-day Ronny Cedeno threads.

This is has been the mini-mart of threads.

Curt: If you thought that, you've never looked at the Philly.com comments.

There is only one intelligent designer and he is Ruben.

That last post was my MG impersonation.

Just kidding MG.

I am that I am.

Comments!

I yam what I yam.

Speaking of comments: dear lord the CSNPhilly ones on the JMJ article.

For those who believe in reverse evolution, the study of the once highly advanced BL civilization, following the conquest of alternative viewpoints by the invading Comcast Empire, is a fascinating example of the dumbing down syndrome pervasive in the late 20th and early 21st century media.

I taken all I can stands of this thread and I can't stands no more.

If DPat was upset at Byrd getting 8 mil a year, he's probably livid at JMJ getting 1.5.

I'll re-post.. Think the Phils take a flyer on V. Wells for the league minimum? He's a perfect Rube signing .. he's 34 used to be good,doesn't walk, hits .230 now but has shown some ability to "produce" . Not to mention, another injury waiting to happen.

Stanton to make $6.5MM in 2014. He's now making over 30% of their 2013 payroll.

Wonder which V Wells we'd be more likely to see...

2013
First 38 games: .301/.357/.538/.895, 10 HR

Last 92 games: .199/.243/.253/.495, 1 HR

Hmmmmm... how old is he? 35?

Look forward to Ruben's quote. "We really believe he can be the guy who showed up in the first month and a half last year. His production was tremendous."

The cost of MLB players has gotten to the point that 9 Million buys you one year of Mayberry & Kendrick.
Not griping those 2 players, but that's a ton of money for mid-rotation & 4th OF.
Sticker Shock. New BMW prices for a used pick-up truck.

Bubba: They'd probably cost more if they were FAs.

They already have JMJ and Ruf. Why on earth would they want Vernon Wells?

KK would probably net something like 3/24 or 3/30 if he were a FA based on the recent deals signed and his track record.

Look at that deal that Scott Feldman got before complaining about giving KK $7.6 million this year.

***They already have JMJ and Ruf. Why on earth would they want Vernon Wells?***

Silver lining: If they had Wells, JMJ and Ruf would automatically look like better baseball players. Its akin to putting a decent looking girl next to a godawful ugly girl...she suddenly jumps up a couple of spots in ranking just by the contrast provided.

Colonel-- Maybe Rube will start collecting RH OF the way he collects UT. Plus-- he's cheap, which seems to be the sum total of their signing philosophy.

Satan helped the Senators beat the Yankees.

NEPP-- Cheerleader Effect

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