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Monday, January 20, 2014

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If Wells is signed to a MiL deal there's no risk.

He probably wants an opt out clause - say by June 1st - but who cares? If he's not on the 25 man by then let him go.

"If Wells is signed to a MiL deal there's no risk."

Again, I disagree with the idea that a MiL is no-risk. The risk is that he ends up on the 25-man roster.

can we just copy/paste the delmon young threads about 1 year ago if this actually happens?

LH bat off the bench has got to be Bobby Abreu.

Cardinal's Pipeline is hooked to the Godiva Chocolate factory.
Phillies Pipeline is hooked to the busiest public toilet at the Grand Central Station.

At 37, Overbay would be a good fit age-wise.

The only way I would say Rube would sign Wells is if he had substance abuse issues, excessive weight gain, got in fistfights with strangers or was a clubhouse cancer.

Dust off the old anti-drug campaign:

'Just Say No!' even on a MLB deal.

minor league deal.

Maybe this is part of Amaro's plan to make resigning JMJ look like a sold move by comparison?

Production.

***can we just copy/paste the delmon young threads about 1 year ago if this actually happens?***

Vernon Wells: Delmon Young without the upside.

NEPP, at first I thought your last comment was in jest but then realized the truth of it.

Overbay is 37, plays only 1st base, and hasn't been a remotely decent hitter in the last 5 years. He's a natural fit.

37 is a bit young for the Phillies.

I'm predisposed against players like Wells (no speed, mediocre defense, low OBP), but I can see a role for an extra OF when Ruf is sent down to start the season in Lehigh (barring injury to Byrd or Brown, he won't play).

If I had to choose between Brown/Revere/Byrd/Mayberry/Wells or Guynn Jr...I'd take Guynn Jr.

The argument for Wells is that he's a good hitter for three months at this stage of his career (look at his start for the Yanks). I don't see another team catching lightning in a bottle with Wells, unless they can get him consistent ABs as a DH.

I'm with BAP on this. It isn't "low risk." The risk is that he ends up on the roster and takes 300 ABs away from someone who could use them.

Also, what's the reward, exactly?

It's a shame Wells hasn't hit well since Gwynn last hit well. Gwynn Sr. I mean.

Ironically, Wells even sucked 7 years ago so Rube cant even use his 7 year old scouting reports to justify such a deal.

Note: 7 years ago was his spectacular Age 28 year where he posted a .706 OPS (85 OPS+).

Why don't they just dig up Johnny Callison and give him a contract?

Tony Gwynn was such an amazing hitter in his prime. One of my favorite players as a kid actually. I can't think of a single guy in the game today that is as good a pure hitter as him.

Ichiro was close in his peak years for his ability to make solid contact but Gwynn has to be one of the best guys in the last 50+ years at it. He was actually a pretty decent defender too before he ate himself out of that.

Though I will say looking back, his Age 34-37 period when he suddenly saw his numbers jump to a ridiculous .371 AVG/.415 OBP/.916 OPS seems a bit suspicious given that it coincided with the official start of the PED era (1994).

There's no upside to Wells and as been pointed out, he could take AB's away from someone who could use them. Amaro loves these kind of guys so I won't be surprised if he signs him.

Since the Phils did nothing to excite the fan base this winter and I don't think they'll be a good team, I expect them to lose another half million at the gate. This is a vicious circle that can only be turned around by building a strong core through the farm. They'll have lots of opportunities the next few years but it will be many years before they're ready to contend again - and that's if they hit on all these high picks.

Anyone with knowledge on how signing bonuses to FA/extended players affect the official luxury tax/payroll metrics?

Starting to see a lot of deals with signing bonuses in y1 paired with very small salary, then normal salaries for following years. Makes me think it lowers the AAV aspect, but that just seems way to easy of a loophole.

"It wouldn't be a week in the off-season if MG wasn't typing a post saying how he can't see how the Phillies improved in any area or DPat writing a post talking about unmade moves."

TTI~ 1. Are they better in RF? Yes. + 1
2. Is the 'pen better? Possibly. I've never seen Lincoln pitch. +.5
3. Is the rotation improved. Unknown. But probably not. - 1
4. Is the bench better? Absolutely not.
- 1

Look, I don't know what should have been done, nor am did I or am I suggesting anything at all. But he didn't even sign Major League guys to Minor League deals. And like I said, if you read the post, he had payroll restrictions. I said the off-season has been underwhelming. A better job could've been done. Hell, you could've done better. Yes? So, please stop.

Look at it with an open mind. Let me put it to you this way: Are you looking forward to watching the team that will be on the field, knowing that they probably will not contend for anything? I'm a huge Phillies phan. always have been. Ad I can tell you that will be hard to do, knowing that better moves have been made.

I believe they're probably a 75-win team. Not much to look forward to.

Signing bonuses are simply added to the overall salary number and then divided by the # of guaranteed years to get the AAV which is the number used for the luxury tax. I think the only real point would be to give the player that big chunk of cash up front instead of him getting it in smaller pieces during the year as a salary. Then he can go blow that money on a nice ride, rolexes, a huge mansion with Venetian canals, etc etc.

Luxury tax wise, it doesnt have any affect.

Biggs, that's not entirely accurate.

If the Phillies (and this means David Montgomery and OWNERSHIP) had decided to go all in and bust the salary cap for one year, they could have signed some top flight players and jettisoned some of the dregs.

They could have gone after better relievers - not the hanging Chads - and they could be in on Tanaka. They could have signed Ellsbury or Choo (borrowed against the ne TV deal if necessary), they could still signed Ubaldo Jiminez or could have gone after someone else.

They could have. They have the money or the capacity to borrow for a couple of years. And they're getting a revenue boost from the new national TV deal as well as the online operations, so the gate decline is not going to affect them nearly as much as it would have in past years. AAMOF, they'll probably just pocket all the new revenue and use the gate decline as their excuse.

No... If they really cared about winning all that much they could have bought some high priced short term solutions for the rotation (Kazmir/Colon) until the pitching depth in the minors was rebuilt (though with the way they develop pitching talent it doesn't look like any real high-ceiling guys are on their way).

They've chosen the opposite path, and I'm afraid we're in for a few more years of watching a "not so very good" baseball team.

I'm a fan, so I'll watch, but I won't believe or pretend that there's really anything to get excited about unless most of the things I listed in the last thread come about.

DPat is that a new system you're putting out there to replace the "b00b System" that's been widely used here on BL the last few years?

Ken Giles link on the upper right.


Over/Under on the number of big league innings he sees this season:

1-1/2

I'll take the "under".

Shorter DPat - I have no idea what should have been done, so I reserve the right to criticize every move based on my lack of knowledge and creativity.

Giles looks alot like Papelbon in that photo in the article mentioned. I already dont like him as a result.

nepp: Yeah, i guess if I'm a player, getting $5M on day 1 is certainly better than getting it over a bunch of paychecks. Maybe the team gets to save a $ or two in overall negotiations if they agree to shell it out like that.

Brewers sign Overbay. Now we just need someone to poach Wells and the new phillies stat guy can start ordering fruit baskets to the rival GMs.

Having satiated its hunger for utility INF, the F.O. turned its attention to 5th outfielders.

"Having satiated its hunger for utility INF, the F.O. turned its attention to 5th outfielders."

RAJ's hunger for utility infielders is like man's hunger for more knowledge: it can never be satiated.

AWH~ Nope. Just my opinion of the +'s and -'s.

What that tells me is that club is status quo, the GM didn't (or couldn't) do an adequate job (again) and that another bad year is on the horizon. But we all knew that anyway.

Since it is presumed, that nothing earth-shattering is going to happen, there's not much else to talk about, except what did (or did not) happen.

In RAJ's defense (and it's a pretty thin one), since none of us are in the Phils war room when decisions are made, I imagine his job is pretty difficult to do when it comes to dealing with this ownership.

But using his words against him. With this high payroll he didn't put a championship- caliper club on the field for 2012 through 2014, assuming they don't contend in '14.

Since there's no one to replace the aging core players when they're gone, the future beyond '14 doesn't look too bright either.

Any news or Ryan Howard's weight?

I predict that he'll come come to camp "in the best shape of his life".

2014 MLB Prospect Watch (2B)
#2 Rougned Odor - Texas

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Love that name!

" TTI~ 1. Are they better in RF? Yes. + 1
2. Is the 'pen better? Possibly. I've never seen Lincoln pitch. +.5
3. Is the rotation improved. Unknown. But probably not. - 1
4. Is the bench better? Absolutely not.
- 1

Look, I don't know what should have been done, nor am did I or am I suggesting anything at all. But he didn't even sign Major League guys to Minor League deals. And like I said, if you read the post, he had payroll restrictions. I said the off-season has been underwhelming. "

Ho-lee hell....I am going to read this every morning when I get up to get my day off to a great laughing start.

Whoever overpays for Jiminez is going to regret it in about three months. The Yankee's are going to have to continue to buy over the hill FA to continue to remain competitive. The phillies haven't invested in the FA market for two years and will have plenty to spend in 15, 16 as the old "core" comes off the books.

AWH~ In reading your 3;26 post, your absolutely right. It's all coulda, shoulda etc. In the past, you've always asked me whom they could've sighed, and in your post you've answered that question this year.

But once they signed Byrd, we knew that no other bats were coming. RAJ signed MAG and wasn't about to pay the prices the FA starters were asking (not even Tanaka). They could've gotten better relievers to go with Lincoln, but again it all comes down to money.

And I'd rather have Kratz than Nieves. They've gotten older, and not a helluva lot better.

dpat, i was going to make a joke about you being such a broken record as one of the reason why a lot of us avoid engaging you in debate - but instead I just went to the BL archives and found the post that was exactly 1 year ago, and searched for 'Dpat' and came up this:

"Minor League signings count against the cap if the guys are on the 40-man, yes? along with medical benefits and so on. Sometimes I don't have to do research. I'm a lot smarter than you think. If you don't like my comments just say so.

You always find the negative, just because you don't agree. As far as your comments on a possible Soriano trade and his skillset, the comments were not stupid, they're just your opinion. And that's the part you don't get. It's just opinion. It doesn't have to be backed up by fact or stats. What you and other fail to realize is this: The team still needs another bat, whether you or others think so or not. They could use more pitching too, but not of the Minor League variety.

And though you don't want to believe it, they absolutely will not go over the threshold. If they wanted to, they could have had any FA outfielder they wanted, including Swisher, whom you wanted. I may actually be proven right as things may turn out, but it's not that I'm trying to be. I want the best team on the field that can be out there. And with this outfield and Lannan as the #5, it's not the case.

Even with Linstrom, I'll bet they probably didn't even make a play for him. And you're right there, he would've been nice.

Posted by: DPatrone | Saturday, January 19, 2013 at 10:24 PM"

I know they're not necessarily better, but how is the bench worse than last year?

that took about 10 seconds to find, so I'm sure there are even better examples of broken records - but that summed it up pretty well.

You want the Phils to spend more money, but they won't. You don't need to research things because you're already smarter than we think. You don't need facts, just opinions, etc. etc.

We get it bud.

Rumors of Overbay and Wells?

So this is what rock bottom feels like. Interesting.

As for Howard's condition reporting to ST, I would assume his body would resemble the shape and fat content of a tube of Braunschweiger.

"I know they're not necessarily better, but how is the bench worse than last year?"

The bench is probably the only area of the team that should be better in 2013, unless RAJ does something zany like keeping Tony Gwynn, Jr. over Darin Ruf or one of the many fungible no-hit utility infielders over Cesar.

Better yet, get the guy who picked up the "vitamins" for Wells, Garret Anderson and Darren Erstad and sign him.

bap, I'll bet the reason they signed Cedeno is so Cesar can go to LV and learn to play CF better.

I would not be surprised if both Cesar and Ruf open the season in Allentown.

I see the opening day bench as

Nieves
Frandsen
Mayberry
Cedeno
LH OF bat

I wonder if Susdorf will be given an chance, or whether they just don't think he has enough power.

Chris Cotillo tweeted "phillies have offer ou tto a pitcher who can both start and relieve. Player unknown, but they have been linked to Gaudin."

let the 'OMG he's how old' and other complaining return

If we do end up with Chad Gaudin, it'll be a good thing either way. As it'll either be a case where the third time's the charm, in which the fringy middle reliever whose first name is Chad actually contributes, or it'll the beginning of a bona fide tradition whose grousing about we can look forward to every winter.

awh: If that's your projected opening day bench, and you project Ruf beginning the season at AAA, then I never want to see another post from you in which you declare that a particular MiLB signing carries no risk.

I totally forgot the curse of the the CHAD, hopefully its Jerome Williams simply on name alone. Oh, and they are both equally below average players.

It's almost a given that the Phillies will sign Chad Gaudin...he's named Chad and he will likely suck this year.

It's meant to be.

Phillies have offer out to crappy pitcher, Insert Name Here.

You're welcome.

Will Munson make the Opening Day roster?

I'd like to see Roy Halladay signed up and in Clearwater this spring working exclusively with Phillippe Aumont. I truly believe that Roy can calm the beast in Aumont. He still throws the nastiest uncatchable pitches on the team.

***He still throws the nastiest uncatchable pitches on the team.***

Well half of that is the fact that he's so wild that the catcher has no clue where its gonna end up.

Thanks LorE.

For as high a pick as Munson was I really hope he gets a fair shake. Problem is most of the bullpen is out of options.

I wonder if Wells' reps have called Ken Rosenthal back yet.

"For as high a pick as Munson was I really hope he gets a fair shake. Problem is most of the bullpen is out of options."

I don't think you need to worry. If there's one thing that can be guaranteed with RAJ in charge, it's that crappy Rule 5 draft picks will get a fair chance to make the team.

"But he didn't even sign Major League guys to Minor League deals."

When I read this at work, I have to admit, I laughed loudly enough to attract attention.

If anyone reads DPat's posts and takes him seriously at this point they deserve to be mocked mightily.

Munson is def making the opening day, as bap stated about his rule 5 status.

Paps
Bastardo
Lincoln
DeFratus
Diekman
Munson
Rosenberg

They'll probably think having the likes of Munson, Rosenberg, and even Stutes/Aumont is enough reason to keep Martin as starter depth in AAA. In reality, they all should be in AAA while Martin gets a shot at relieving, as he's the one with the most potential.

+ > b00b?

Methodology argument will rage for years.

I feel like I've asked this question a hundred times, and never gotten a satisfactory answer.

What was the point in trading for Ben Revere if you've spent the entire last year considering trading for Peter Bourjos and turning Cesar Hernandez into a CF?

I get positional value, but Hernandez has played 2B his whole life and is apparently pretty good at it. Only Ruben Amaro and his obsession with versatility and utility players would think it makes sense to spend a lot of time and resources to turn a 23-year old above average middle infielder into a CF the same season in which you traded for a 24-year old CF under team control for the next five seasons.

It's almost like the team that places so much emphasis on scouting failed to scout Revere and now has buyers remorse on what they ended up with.

Coming out of 2014 spring training, I wonder if Jessie Biddle might be a candidate for a "lights out" set-up man? And, more importantly, could the Phillies manage a year of that, and then let him get back to a MLB starting role in 2015?

Again, this team is about to become awash in cash – an early start to the arb clock is a flippin’ pathetic excuse for warehousing a top prospect in MiLB. Cool interview with a self-assured young man:

Biddle well aware of perception of Phillies' farm

Keeping Martin as starting depth in the minors will fall in line as the same faulty thinking like how this org would keep useless utility guys around just because they can be labeled at a certain position regardless of their actual ability to fill that position.

Martin is labeled as a possible starter, so therefore hes the one that gets sacrificed to AAA despite having the best chance to be an impact reliever while the other bums get the inside track to make the big leagues.

MLB hasn't granted Cesar a 4th option year yet. Until that happens, he either makes the team or is DFA'd.

There's an offer on the table to Wells for 2 years, 10 million. Take a look at his 2006 season. We believe he's still the ballplayer capable of mashing 25+ home runs.

Unless traded, we know the bench will be at least:

Frandsen
Mayberry
Nieves

Of the remaining candidates, Ruf and Galvis are probably the most useful players in the majors. Ruf as the main bat and Galvis as the defensive replacement.

"It's almost like the team that places so much emphasis on scouting failed to scout Revere and now has buyers remorse on what they ended up with."

You don't even need to scout Revere to know what kind of player he is. You just need an Internet connection.

Jesse Biddle didn't have a spectacular year in the minors by any means. There's a lot of things you can say are examples of the Phillies' cheapness. Sending a prospect back to the minors who struggled last year would not be one of those examples.

Or the team had Utley who plays Hernandez's position and was trying to find a way to get Hernandez on the roster because of his hitting ability showed in the minors.


Or yeah- it has to be because they just decided Revere sucks.

Stupid people and pre-disposed opinions.

awh: "Any news or Ryan Howard's weight?
I predict that he'll come come to camp "in the best shape of his life".

Last I saw, he was down to 375, so you're probably right about that.

LorecorE and Jack are high on Munson but I'm not sure I understand why. He's got a good fastball, but has no command of his secondary pitches. His ceiling is David Herndon 2011. He's heading into his age 25 season having pitched only 24 games at the Trip A level.

I think he's exactly the kind of guy you look for in a Rule 5 pick but, wow, is he a longshot to stick. Herndon in 2010 was a year younger and had way better command.

i'm merely projecting what the Phillies are likely to do. I know almost nothing of Munson other than the quick profile I've read on him, that basically matches what you just described.

Sadly, that profile sounds like he belongs in the Phils top 7 relievers as much as any of his competition.

My major question going into 2014 is how am I going to motivate myself into getting my aged, out of shape , Phillies loving self to actually spend the time, money & effort to face traffic and the crowds and the parking hassle to actually go and see this team in person.

Hope springs eternal and all that, but really, what about the 2014 team is going to cause a body at rest to bother to get it in motion.

Not that I'm any kind of barometer of fan interest, but who hasn't had some similar thoughts?

Clout: I don't think I've ever mentioned Munson. I don't know a thing about him. Where did you get the impression I was "high" on him?

Is Munson's command better or worse than Diekman's, De Fratus' and Rosenberg's?

If Munson could give them an '11 Herndon type year or even at a slightly higher ERA (~3.50) over 50-60 IP, it would go a long way to actually making this bullpen above average.

The much bigger though is that I don't even they get 1 WAR this year out of Papelbon/Adams combined.

"Sadly, that profile sounds like he belongs in the Phils top 7 relievers as much as any of his competition."

This is the biggest problem that emerges every time a bullpen candidate has been discussed the last two years. The negatives outweigh the positives by a wide margin, yet you realize that's the most you can say about even the best internal option the team has.

This will be the worst bullpen in the league again this year, though the rest of the team will be so bad that it won't stand out as much as in years past.

thanks for the link, cut. wouldn't 2014 be the perfect time to see biddle in the show? a low expectation, just treading water year despite rubes PR tripe. if mag's elbow is shown to not tolerate SP, biddle should be next in line.

My major question going into 2014 is how am I going to motivate myself into getting my aged, out of shape , Phillies loving self to actually spend the time, money & effort to face traffic and the crowds and the parking hassle to actually go and see this team in person.

"Hope springs eternal and all that, but really, what about the 2014 team is going to cause a body at rest to bother to get it in motion.

Not that I'm any kind of barometer of fan interest, but who hasn't had some similar thoughts?" -- Bubba

I have. I expect I'll fork over some bucks for a game in the spring, but if they look like a warmed-over version of last year's team, that will be the only game I attend.

Iceman - It won't be the worst in the league unless Papelbon is the Sept version who struggled to hit 91 on the gun, Adams is cooked, and Bastardo is highly erratic.

The issue is that with Martin as a starter and Aumont basically looking like a lost cause there isn't one arm going into the bullpen with huge upside potential.

Aumont's problem appears to be a psychological one. Firstly, he thinks in French and his internal dialogue during his years of instruction in the Phillies minor leagues probably sounded like this "Ta gueule, compris? petit homme". Now I doubt those words would rattle in his head if Halladay was his mentor. Phillippe just needs someone who understands.

or maybe he's a lost cause.

He was a die- hard Expos fan and continues to cheer for the Nats. I saw a Quebecois zine last year with an off the cuff interview with him. With his superior brain, I am sure this gets in the way of something.
I predict he goes back to Seattle and ends up closing out three WFS for them.

Munson,a reliever who has trouble throwing strikes.Wonder which teams bullpen that describes?

Based on hearing nothing about the Phillies interest in Masahiro Tanaka, and r00b's predisposition to operate in stealth, I predict that Tanaka will sign with the Phillies.

Understand, this is pure speculation - I don't have DPat's sources, but knowing how r00b's worked in the past...

Let us pray on that, awh

Techincally the Phillies were only the second-worst bullpen in the league last year (unless you meant NL, not MLB). The Astros were worse. Not that it's much of a worthy distinction, of course.

But I doubt the Phillies will be the worst bullpen in the league again this year. Don't think they'll even finish in the bottom 5 (though they're still likely to be below-average). This is just based on common sense law of averages type stuff. It will really be a testament to how terrible an organization this has become if they can consistently beat basic regression.

Jim Salisbury (‏@JSalisburyCSN)

Source says Phillies have continued to pursue P Chad Gaudin. He was in Phila last week, possibly for physical.

"@Dickie Thong
Jim Salisbury (‏@JSalisburyCSN)

Source says Phillies have continued to pursue P Chad Gaudin. He was in Phila last week, possibly for physical."

rumored as a joke on beerleaguer. coms true.

Even better.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Todd Zolecki (‏@ToddZolecki)
Phillies sign RHP Chad Guadin to minor league contract.

Jim Salisbury (‏@JSalisburyCSN)
Gaudin signing is official, Phillies announce. Minor league deal w invite to spring training. He can start or relieve.

I dont buy it...the Phillies dont give physicals to potential players.

Even if they did, all they'd find out whether or not his four humors were in balance or not. I'm pretty sure they dont have anything more advance than that as far as sports medicine goes.

The Chad streak continues...LOL.

I imagine that Philadelphia's women's groups are as excited about the Chad Gaudin signing as Philadelphia's Jewish groups were about the Delmon Young signing.

To recap:

2012: Chad Qualls - 31.1 IP with an 89 ERA+, traded to NYY on July 1st for nothing, traded a month later to Pittsburgh

2013: Chad Durbin - 16 IP with a 43 ERA+, released on May 31st

2014: Chad Gaudin - ??

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