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Sunday, December 08, 2013


Dude take a zoloft and back off the ledge. A fourth or fifth starter needs to supply innings and keep the team in the game. Dumping years and dollars into a Blanton type is poor use of funds.

I fully suppport a trade for Kemp at nearly any cost. I fully supprt a Brown for Cespedes swap, and really want to lose Mayberry somewhere before spring training.

But really Corey could you be much more of a debby downer?

I hope their right about Brown if he is traded. While i dont think he'll every become the next Clemente defensively he may improve just enough. I would hate for Rube to sign another 36 yo on the downside of his career to a multiple year contract.

Other than MG and BAP's hilarious fantasies about what a great backup catcher the Phils could've gotten if only they'd waited, the threads have been boring.

Ruben will trade the AA team for Scherzer.

"... the Phils are expected to look to fill out the rotation with a mid-tier starting pitcher rather than Matt Garza or Ervin Santana."

Garza and Santana are mid-tier pitchers, at best. Just because they are two of the very best available, they don't become no. 1s and no. 2s.

In a similar vein, just because Kendrick was the third best starter for the Phils, that doesn't make him a no. 3. He is, and always has been, a no. 5.

When the Phils didn't sign Josh Johnson, Haren, nor Hudson, the Phils lost the chance of adding starters with ceilings as no. 2s, although with low probability of reaching those ceilings. Jimenez also has a high ceiling, but the Phils would lose their second-round pick if they signed him.

I would shoot for Garza, but not Santana, who received a QO and is not much better than Kendrick.

Maybe theyll just resign DOC. Its the easy thing to do and Rube likes easy.

Lee, Papelbon, Howard and cash to Seattle for Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin and a few other scrubes.

Or yeah and signing the pitcher formerly known as Fausto Carmona

So now we have a Mariners Dollars poster?

This is not criticism, Corey but I laughed a bit as I'd never seen ERA+ spelled out like that before.

On Feldman...I cant believe we were looking at him. Thank god that the Astros signed him.

Lee, Papelbon, Howard and cash to Seattle for Taijuan Walker, Nick Franklin and a few other scrubes.

Posted by: Scotch Man | Sunday, December 08, 2013 at 10:10 AM

How much cash are we including there? Depending on the amount, that might be a pretty nice trade for us to clear nearly $60 million a year in payroll and get a couple very good young prospects.

Scott Feldman: an inning eater who doesn't eat innings.

As for Vogelsong. . . I'm all in favor of signing bounce-back candidates, but a guy was who 36, coming off an injury, and was a AAA caliber pitcher until age 34, does not strike me as a good bounce-back candidate. Glad he re-signed with the only team in baseball whose off-season has been as bizarre as the Phillies'.

I wish the Phillies could hit on AAA guys like Vogelsong like the Giants did a few years back. That's the kind of moves we need to make. Same with the Pirates finding a gem in the rough like Jason Grilli.

Yes, Papelbon could get 2yr/$20M on the open market.

Which explains why his trade value is absolutely 0, even if you ate $6M. Its the Winner's Curse. He's paid his full value, so there is no surplus for anyone to trade for.

The very first move Amaro should make today is schedule a private party with Cards GM Mozeliak. Loosen him up, hand him a bag of cash and work out a deal for some of that excess young pitching that's cluttering up their system. At the least, hand him the Phillies roster and ask him for some advice.

I wanna throw Joel Pineiro out there as a rotation possibility. Making a comeback now in Puerto Rico.

The Cardinals are looking for a right hand hitting 2B/3B. Trade Frandsen tonight Ruben.

"At the least, hand him the Phillies roster and ask him for some advice."

"Find another line of work."

NEPP -- That's the CSNPhilly style guide playing its role. We spell out + and -. I didn't even realize I had spelled out ERA+, ha

Its all just threw me for a loop for a minute.

At least it's good football weather?!?

Take on as much salary and get kemp. Might as well. Need to watch somebody.

Been watching this Eagles game (go figure its one of the two I get in VT)...this weather has been atrociously bad. Love watching football in bad weather as it brings back lots of great memories from my youth playing football. These games are just pure fun to play.

About the only thing good so far this offseason is the likelihood this team will stink badly enough next year so that some real changes are made due to the attendance hit starting with Amaro's firing.

***SUNDAY, 3:15pm: Japanese teams will be able to set a desired amount for the posting fee up to a maximum of $20MM, reports Mainichi. Once the Japanese team sets the posting fee, it will be made public to all 30 MLB clubs and all teams who tender that figure will be able to negotiate with the player. The Mainichi report adds the new posting system is expected to go into effect as early as next week and will pave the way for Tanaka to be posted.***

Seems great for the player being posted to say the least. Though its far less likely that Tanaka will be posted now.

@Ken_Rosenthal: Delmon Young working out at 1B with the goal of increasing his versatility for interested clubs. He is 100 percent healthy and weighs 219.

DYak at first base. Versatility.

219 Stone?

Seems great for the player being posted to say the least. Though its far less likely that Tanaka will be posted now.

Posted by: NEPP | Sunday, December 08, 2013 at 06:32 PM

Rosenthal tweeted this:

Rakuten president indicated to Japanese media that if Tanaka wants to be posted, team likely will honor his wishes

Having my ostomy surgery next week. Will be good to go after that. Hopefully, the Phillies offense will give me enough time between innings to change my collection bag.

Is the Cruz dude a Phillie or another bogus rumor?

Tanaka or bust!

So the Phillies are looking to move Papelbon for salary, they dont want anything else back for him other than that. All so they can sign another SP. Couple things to glean out of this:

1. There is definitely a finite budget this year and it seems like its well below the $189 million luxury tax

2. Rube is likely unwilling to eat very much salary at all and even if he eats a couple million, at best we'll get some crappy C list prospect and Rube will proceed to sign some mid-tier starter like Bruce Chen to say he improved the team.

Its going to be a long year.

That is creativity for you Nepp. I suspected all along that they would not sniff the threshold. Have no way of knowing how much they actually willing to spend. Depending on how this trade works out it may not be so bad. However anytime Rube wants to get creative i worry and a lil pixie fairy dies somewhere.

They are probably trying to pull of some moves but cannot until they unload someone.

MikeG, yeah, but they could come to some kind of deal based on a financial calculation:

Based on their getting the posting fee next season, they could offer him a bunch more money to stay for another year - if the numbers work.

One thing all this Tanaka talk has had me doing is a little research on the guy.

One question that has no been asked is does his wife

pop star

Mai Satoda even want to leave Japan?

Here she is:

If she's wearing snowboots, she's ready.

Well, they could be trying to dump Papelbon's salary to participate in the anticipated Tanaka frenzy.

That would, IMHO, assuming he can translate well to MLB, probably be the best use of funds possible.

But NEPP, you are absolutely correct:

They will not even come close to the lax tax threshold. I would not be surprised if payroll is $10-15MM lower in 2014 that last season. right now is estimating it at $155MM - before benefits - which is below what is was in 2013.

I will be pleasantly surprised if they spend that much.

Speaking of Ice Breakers, I hope Ruben warmed up his targeted prey at last evening's cordial.

NEPP: "So the Phillies are looking to move Papelbon for salary, they dont want anything else back for him other than that. All so they can sign another SP."

This would make absolutely no sense because they would still need a closer. Any evidence that this is true other than something on the internet?

Marlins seem intent on moving Logan Morrison. Otherwise, their signing of Garret Jones makes no sense. I suspect they can get a pretty good prospect for LoMo, who'd be a solid DH.

Dont put it past Rube to think he can use Brad Lincoln or even Ethan Martin as a closer...or sign a tertiary guy with closing experience for far less than they're paying Pap now...the market is glutted with guys that have a good number of "Saves" last year.

Also, you're applying logic to Rube's actions...that's a bit dangerous.

My guess is they would move Bastardo to the closer role.

Or sign Balfour, Rodney, Perez, Benoit, etc etc.

There are a bunch of "closers" available if Rube thinks he has to have a "closer".

Though it should be said that Pap knows what its like to throw the last pitch of the season and its hard to find that type of experience these days.

If I recall correctly, the Phillies' payroll has been set at almost exactly 60% of ticket sale revenues for like 8 zillion years in a row. Ticket sales were down last year, so payroll is going to drop accordingly. Anyone who expected anything different simply has not been paying attention to this detail.

TTI, the choice would probably be Bastardo unless they're concerned about the BB/9 (4.8).

The could also do it by committee and see if someone emerges.

However, despite how good the stuff of Diekman (4.9), Rosenberg (4.6), De Fratus (4.8) and Martin (5.9) might be tempting, they've all got their own issues with throwing strikes consistently, as their career BB/9 numbers (in parentheses) indicates.

It's all moot unless they move Papelbon, though.

To me, the phrase "being creative" means one of two things:
1) trading for players that are not being talked about, or
2) acquiring players without spending much money.

Nepp I wouldnt put anything past Rube. However history has shown the Phils wouldnt put a rookie in such a role. Well at least in the past theyve been reluctant to trust rookies in much capacity. Unless forced to do so because of injuey etc.

Jon Heyman says Doc to retire?

Goodbye, Roy. Enjoy retirement.

Jon Heyman
Congrats to Roy halladay, who as stated will announce retirement as a Jay today. Terrific career, legacy

Signed a 1 day contract with the Toronto today.

Sports Center just reporting Roy Halladay signed a 1 day contract with Blue Jays and wil retire.

Given Amaro's strong belief/preference for the concept of an 'established closer' and saves as measure or performance, I bet if he does trade Papelbon that he signs a slightly less expensive established veteran as a closer.

Still wonder how strongly Amaro wants to move Papelbon due to his concern about performance & stuff than the things he said last year publicly which didn't portray team/management in a positive light.

Report is Roy Halladay will announce his retirement.

Roy Halladay knows his limitations and goes out as close to on top as he can. We really did see him throw his last pitch.

Wow. Did not expect that. Good for him.

This was the only way to keep Amaro from giving Roy $8 million.

Sad about Roy. At least there's some closure.

Now we get to talk about the good parts of his career! And argue about him retiring as a Blue Jay instead of as a Phillie.

In other news, Rube just offered Roy a 5 year deal with several player options.

TTI: "My guess is they would move Bastardo to the closer role."

What could possibly go wrong?

Can't believe Roy. I don't think he has enough to make it to the hall either. Really is ashame. In 2011, I would have expected him to dominate for 2 more years and compete for another 2.

Give me a break, he's going to the Hall and it wont even be close. It just might take him 2-3 years to get in. His numbers are easily Hall worthy.

So there must be something pretty wrong with him if he's going to retire

RE: "closure." In his time in Philly he struck me as a bit prickly with the media. Wonder if, now that he's retired, he'll shed any light on some of the mystery ailments of the past two years and on the deteriorating clubhouse Hamels spoke of. Not that it would make much of a difference, but I doubt it helps management's bottoming out reputation for handling injuries and, ahem, long-term planning…But in the big picture, hope he enjoys golfing and anaconda wrestling in his retirement.

I offered Halladay a 3-day deal with an option for a 4th day, but he choose the Blue Jays instead. I hope I didn't embarrass him.

Sad to see Doc go, but good for him to retire on his own terms. Love that guy.

I assume no one is actually arguing about him retiring as a Blue Jay, right? He spent 12 seasons there and came up with them. He spent 4 in Philly.

Phils offered Feldman 2 yr/$15M Rosenthal is reporting.

Phils aren't going to get a Tanaka, Garza, or Santana.

It will be a Maholm/Arroyo type on a 2-yr deal and if things fall through a real scrub like J. Saunders on a 1-yr incentive-laden deal.

He's dead to me, Jack.

Roy Halladay

2749.1 IP
2117 K
3.38 ERA
203 Wins
67.6 WAR

Pedro Martinez

2827.1 IP
3154 K
2.93 ERA
219 Wins
87.1 WAR

Doc must not be feeling up to his own high standards. I would like to be given a chance to give him a standing ovation as he bows out of the game (easier to do that when he isn't pitching the way he was last season). It speaks to Doc's loyalty that he will go out as a Blue Jay, and it speaks to his pride and honor that he's calling it quits rather than struggle like last year. I only wish for his sake that he'd had a chance to pitch in a World Series, if not win one, but he had a stellar career.

How Halladay is able to address his medical issues, get healthy, and figure out the next phase of his life.

He didn't go out on top though especially if you consider his last start and the last 2 years with the Phils.

As for HOF, he doesn't have the career longevity or the counting stats his peers might but his overall decade of dominance in an offensive ERA (2001-11) should ensure his ticket. Shame he didn't get the ring in Philly but he was really fun to watch in '10 and '11.

Noname: You've just proved that Roy Halladay wasn't the greatest pitcher of the last 40 year. That doesn't mean he's not a Hall of Famer.

derek, I agree, but would also add a section.

1)a. exploring trades that are more than one-on-one (i.e. three-way)

That may be beyond this FO's capacity, though.

b00b analysis:

Pedro in his prime >> Halladay in his prime.

Simply had better stuff although I almost never saw Halladay except his starts vs Red Sox in the late 90s/early 00s.

Very sad about Roy. Very sad.

It's such a shame about Doc on many levels.


Yes Jason...yes it is. Its always sad to see a guy decline but much tougher when its due to unforseen medical issues and he simply fell apart so quickly so unexpectedly.

Tough day for us as fans and a much much tougher day for him in all likelihood.

Easily a Hall of Famer and a great guy to watch compete.

Although I don't disagree with noname's conclusion that Halladay is a very borderline Hall of Famer:

Roy Halladay

2749.1 IP
2117 K
3.38 ERA
203 Wins
1.178 WHIP
67.6 WAR

Bert Blyleven

4970 IP
3701 K
3.31 ERA
287 Wins
1.198 WHIP
96.5 WAR

It took Blyleven 15 years to get in and his overall numbers are better than Halladay's.

Is Tim Hudson a future HOFer?

clout: Oh I wasn't necessarily agreeing with it but that is my guess as to what they would do.

Prototypical MG analysis: Halladay didn't have as good a stuff but I rarely saw him pitch.

I laughed at it so a win right there.

Jayson Stark ‏@jaysonst 7m
Told by one source that Halladay knew he had to retire because "his body is shot." Apparently more than just his shoulder was troubling him

Blyleven's only argument over him is longevity. He never won a CY, he made just 2 AS games and he was never ever the best pitcher in baseball let alone the best for nearly a full decade straight.

(We knew that Doc had something else going on besides his shoulder, but it' s interesting to read that Doc may have said that his body is shot.)

Aren't CY Young's kind of like how many championships you won and/or how many wins you recorded as a SP? CY's don't speak to dominance as much as numbers, and Roy's numbers aren't worthy of "surefire hall of famer".

It will be easier to analyze his place with some distance, mostly because his career spanned two eras and the second isn't over yet. I don't really consider him a contemporary of Maddux/Pedro/Schilling/Unit even though there was overlap; he belongs more to the Carpenter/Santana/Oswalt/Sabathia/Hudson cohort and should probably be judged against them.

A HOFer, for sure.


From 2001-2011, Halladay pitched an even 2300 innings and posted a stellar 2.98 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and a brilliant 1.6 K/9. Despite pitching in two of baseball's most hitter-friendly environments -- Toronto's Rogers Centre and Philadelphia's Citizens Bank Park -- Halladay yielded just 0.7 homers per nine innings in that time as well.

That peak run for Halladay saw him pile up accolade after accolade; Doc was named to eight All-Star teams, won a pair of Cy Young Awards and added in five other Top 5 finishes in the Cy Young voting -- most recently finishing runner-up in 2011. Halladay finished in the Top 10 in NL MVP voting in both 2010 an 2011 as well.

Perhaps most famously, Halladay will be remembered for firing a no-hitter in Game 1 of the 2010 National League Division Series against the Reds, with a fifth-inning walk to Jay Bruce being the lone plate appearance preventing him from a perfect game. Just five months prior, Halladay had hurled a perfect game against the Marlins during the regular season.

Halladay's sudden retirement brings to close a career that will finish with a 203-105 record, a 3.38 ERA and 2,117 strikeouts in 2,749 1/3 innings pitched. Halladay's 67 complete games and 20 shutouts are a rarity in today's game of specialized bullpens, and they serve as a testament to the durability and mental acumen that allowed him to lead the league in innings pitched on four separate occasions.

Speaking of aces, Carlton was in Reading Friday speaking. Article in Reading Eagle today. Best story: Traded to Phils over salary dispute. "The Phils were terrible at the time. When the Cards wanted to get rid of someone, they traded them to Philly as punishment."

Revisionist history:

Ibanez HRs late in Game 5 to tie it up and the Phils go on to win in extra innings vs Cards in the '11 NLDS

Phils play a back and forth series vs Brewers but prevail 4-2 and beat the Rangers in a dramatic Game 7 with Halladay named as the WS MVP with 2 victories in the series.

"Blyleven's only argument over him is longevity. He never won a CY, he made just 2 AS games and he was never ever the best pitcher in baseball let alone the best for nearly a full decade straight."

I don't disagree, but longevity is a huge part of the HOF equation.

I do think Doc will ultimately get in, & deserves to get in, because he was one of the best pitchers in the game for about a decade. But he's not a slam dunk case.

BAP: "longevity is a huge part of the HOF equation."

Huge is right. being great for a short period doesn't count more than being very good for a long period.

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