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Friday, December 06, 2013

Comments

I have zero confidence Amaro is going to do anything creative, smart or financially responsible. I used to not care about the $, but it's easy to see how stupid contracts have handcuffed the franchise to an extent.

mlbtr had a pretty cool chart up.

By 12/6/13, there have already been $1.16B guaranteed in contracts. The record for an entire offseason was last year at $1.46B.

"A Papelbon deal only truly makes sense for the Phils if they get something valuable in return."

Agreed. Eat 100% of the money and get the best player possible in return.

"[It would]render all of these previous short-term moves -- Byrd, Ruiz, the re-signing of Utley -- moot."

Oh, we're considering those moves not already moot?

@lorecore, serious question, even if you ate all of the moey, what type of value would he fetch in return? I can't see it being much.

Amaro was creative with the Revere trade. PPP always conveniently overlooks that.

Lorecore, theoretically, each successive year should be higher than the previous year due to inflation.

RAJ trading Papelbon means 5 things:

1. Buy high, sell low = dumb
2. Get little value in return = dumber
3. Should've bid against himself to sign him in the first place = even dumber
4. Not having a closer if he trades him, thus telling the phans the team probably isn't winning enough games to warrant having him on the team = dumber still.
5. Also means that the need to upgrade the offense, rotation and 'pen no longer exists.

Again, this is the kind of thing that happens when the team sucks and has no chance. Couple this potential move with almost everything RAJ has done the last 3 off-seasons and you get a GM that doesn't have much of a clue.

As far as buying high on Pap is concerned, that ship has sailed. If you think his value will ever be as high as when he signed that contract, you're mistaken. He's either a Phillie for the life of his contract or he's sold at a loss.

The most we could realistically hope for at this point is for Amaro to get out from under the contract, get something of value in return (any value at all) and use the money to improve the team in other ways.

Pap is a very expensive fire on an already sinking ship. Put out the fire and maybe they can begin to patch the holes. Hard to find much value in a top-of-the-line closer when you're not scoring enough runs to get into a save situation (even if his velocity wasn't going to hell with age).

pblunts: no idea, there's almost no comparables since he's on the highest paid contract for a reliever in MLB history.

The best/most recent example I can think of is Joel Hanrahan. They didn't eat any money, but he was only due $7M. Pirates got a package of unproven younger players, but with some decent upside potential, mainly Melancon.

Not trying to say that trading Papelbon would end up being a slam dunk move like dumping Hanrahan in hindsight ended up being, but i think thats an OK comparison if they ate a large chuck of the cash.

@SportsTalkThurs: Wonder if Amaro still covets Ichiro now that #Yankees signed Beltran?”

I don't really know who that twitter handle is, but who cares. Sounds like an Amaro type move.

If you think the Papelbon discussion is fun, just wait until Cliff Lee gets hurt or starts to pitch crappy. Then you'll hear "hey, maybe we should trade Cliff Lee," even though at that point no one will want to deal for him.

Sensing the Papelbon trade rumors might be more than saving pennies. I know some of these rumors are just bull. Perhaps he wants out or Rube deemed him not to be one of the good ol (keeps mouth shut) boys. In this case the Phillies will get fleeced. Enter the pitcher with a 6.25 ERA in the minors that had one good year. Or the toolsy outfielder hitting .218.

"A Papelbon deal only truly makes sense for the Phils if they get something valuable in return. If not, why even do it?"

Obviously, I'd prefer to get something valuable even if it means eating salary (after all, it's not my money). But even if all they got was salary relief, it would be a win. Papelbon's overall numbers were still good last year but there's good reason to question how long that is going to continue. Besides, closers are supposed to have good numbers, since they're usually the best relievers on their teams. If you compare Papelbon's numbers to other closers, they were well below average -- except when it comes to salary.

If the Phillies could be rid of the 3 years, $39M left on the Papelbon contract, they could take that same money & find not only a decent closer, but a setup man as well. And still have money leftover to add another decent reliever.

Jack: The horse is dead.

Lorecore: you feel bad for naive posters? I feel bad for anyone who has to be around you for any period of time

@Royg nice troll job. So you want to give Amaro credit for one "creative" trade for a guy who ideally is probably a fourth outfielder. OK, got it. This has nothing to do with being part of being lumped into some group others feel is a bunch of whiners. It's called reality. Amaro sucks.

Another .500 yr coming up

Papelbon's overall numbers were still good last year but there's good reason to question how long that is going to continue.
**********
Fsir enough, but let's not go overboard. If Amaro theoretically agreed to pay 70% of whatever Papelbon would earn over the next 3 years, there'd by 20 teams interested if they didn't have to give up a player.

If you save the Yankees some money this year and ask for their 4th outfielder in return, (a very good one who becomes our immediate starter in CF) it's doable. Do it. If you throw in Revere (and NOT Ruf) you can even give the Yankees back a LH speed type with a high BA. Win Win.

Papelbon's tradeable for value if you pick up $4-5M/year on his salary. Of course, since you're left having to sign someone like Benoit to an $8M/year or so deal, that eliminates the payroll savings. You'd be dealing him to get rid of his allegedly negative presence in the clubhouse, and I suspect that issue is overblown in the media.

On the lower end of things, Boston is apparently looking for a righty-hitting corner outfielder to platoon with Jackie Bradley (they'll go with a Nava/Gomes platoon on the other corner). I still think they'll sign a full-time guy for one of those corners, but maybe the rumor is legitimate. If so, JMJ might be a fit there, perhaps for a bullpen arm. Burke Badenhop would be an intriguing fit, as he's a multiple-inning guy who has been reasonably effective the last two years.

So a trade gets mentioned that Amaro did well in and that is trolling? Also-it is too early to pasture Revere.

I love as well JTroll pretending as if no one last year was calling to trade Lee at the deadline. Yes it will only be when he is in decline people want to trade him. This is why people should ignore JTroll.

Lorecore: Melancon wasn't necessarily unproven. He had pitched really well for a year and a half in Houston and then went to Boston and stank and spent quite a bit of time in the minors in 2012. The Ref Sox viewed him as expendable given their pitching depth.

I've also wondered why people are eager to deal Revere. He's young and cost controlled. He may not be a core piece, but he's definitely a valuable piece of a team.

Have the Yankees given up three draft picks by signing Ellsbury, McCann and Beltran? All three of those guys were tendered qualifying offers.

I should note that the Red Sox saw Melancon as expendable but the general consensus was that was a bad trade for the Red Sox.

Redburb: I don't get the Revere hate either. Maybe some of the same posters who mock the "production" quote are only interested in guys with home run numbers. I say glibly

Ah wait. The Yanks get a draft pick for the Mets signing Granderson. So net -2 picks. Still a steep price.

I can't wait for all the posts from DPat in the future about how the Phillies should've signed Beltran. Looking forward to reading those.

Have no idea if any of the Revere stuff is directed at me, but I like Revere a lot. I like Gardner more, as should any watcher of baseball.

No team needs both Gardner and Revere on it. If it takes tossing in Revere to both ditch Papelbon and get Gardner, then it's a no-brainer. See ya, Ben.

Otherwise, yeah, I like Revere.

Revere isn't, and has never been, the problem. He's a speed and defense guy, and he would fit well in a lineup that had some legitimate offensive threats. Alas, that's not the case in Philly right now.

As bittel says, though, Gardner's flat-out a better player. I can't imagine that's even a point for debate.

Revere 'hate' is generated from the fact that most of his value is tied to his defense and he wasn't as good as advertised in CF defensively last year.

He still also has yet to play an entire season in CF either.

If Amaro could magically trade Papelbon for Gardner and put him in CF, move Mayberry (somebody would take him if the Phils wanted a nobody prospect in return), and kept Ruf, an OF with Brown in LF, Gardner in CF, and Byrd in RF, along with Ruf and Revere on the bench would be actually be a pretty solid group.

Byrd:

Willing to bet Amaro thinks he will start 150+ G this year too even at 36. Phils are going to need 2 solid bench options including somebody who can play actually play CF.

Ruf would give the Phils the RH-power off the bench they are looking for and I would like Revere as a 4th OF type who could start in CF, play all 3 OF positions although ideally start in LF if Byrd/Brown needed a day off, and be a decent PH/PR option late in games.

Revere has value as a part-time player but he's miscast as an everyday CF.

I don't think anybody "hates" Revere; the trouble with him, however, is that he's a hitter with no power who can't walk (making him offensively useless unless he makes contact--which, as we know from his abysmal start to last season, he doesn't do with the consistency of someone like Polanco or Pierre in his prime) and a weak-armed CF who depends on speed to make up for his noodle throws. He's a flawed player on a team of flawed players, and--like pretty much every other current Phillie besides Utley and Lee--is a player who should be replaced by an upgrade if one becomes available. I think there's a strong possibility the Yanks shop Gardner--especially now they've signed Beltran--and we should be in on it if it happens. I suspect, however, we'll wind up with Echiro instead...

Redburb - The Yanks lose their first-, second- and third-round picks, but pick up two comp picks - one for Granderson and the other for Cano.

I really don't see why Papelbon for Gardner couldn't work. The Yankee's are drunk with money and bloated with outfielder. I would even accept Papelbon for Soriano with the amount of money the Cubs are paying for him. If the Phillies were to "acquire" a OF in trade for Papelbon does that still mean Brown is on the trade block?

Gardner is a FA after 2014. Revere, after 2017. Those three extra years will offset any advantage Gardner has over Revere in 2014.

Since defense is a major problem for the Phils, there is value in having both Gardner and Revere.

RF-Byrd
CF-Gardner
LF-Revere
4OF-Ruf
5OF-Rule Five Guy

There has to be a way to flip Brown for some quality Pitching and please find a way to lose Mayberry before Spring training.

Back-of-the-envelope math below, with plenty of fodder for the anti-WAR crowd:

FanGraphs sets a replacement-level team at just under 47 wins over a full season. If you get 3 WAR average from your starting eight plus your five SPs, that's another 39 wins, for a total of 86. Tack on another 8-10 wins from an effective bullpen and bench and you're at 94-96 wins, which is basically a lock for the playoffs.

Taking Dan Szymborski's ZiPS projections for the 2014 Cards as an example:

C Molina 5.0
1B Adams 1.5 (corrected for full-time)
2B Wong 2.3
3B Carpenter 3.4
SS Peralta 2.8
LF Holliday 3.0
CF Bourjos 3.5 (corrected for full-time)
RF Craig 1.8
------
23.3 WAR

SP
Wainwright 4.0
Miller 3.2
Lynn 2.6
Wacha 2.3
Garcia 2.1 (corrected for full-time)
------
14.2 WAR

total = 23.3 + 14.2 = 37.5/13 = 2.885 WAR avg

47 + 37.5 = 84.5 wins before you calculate in the bench and bullpen. The Cards are strong in both of those areas, so I suspect they'll be fine in 2014.

For the Phils, Ben Revere is unlikely to get above 3.5 WAR in a full season, and he's more likely to be around 2 WAR in any given year. (ZiPS projects him at 1.8 WAR in 585 PA this season.) Revere's value is that he's a cheap, cost-controlled guy that presumably lets you load up your other lineup slots by paying for premium players (i.e., ones that consistently get well above that 3-WAR bar and balance out Revere's sub-3 contribution).

Our problem, of course, is that we don't have any of those premium players anymore. ZiPS doesn't project any of the Phils' position players to top 3 WAR. Utley could get there if he can stay healthy and play 140+ games. Howard is projected for 0.3 WAR even after you adjust upward for a full season, creating a massive sinkhole that requires every other guy in the lineup/SP group to pick up an extra 0.2 WAR just to balance him out. Even if Howard got back to his 2007-2008 form, he'd basically be holding serve as far as WAR is concerned, due to being a poor baserunner and defender on the wrong end of the defensive spectrum.

In other words, don't hate Revere for not picking up the slack for the eight-figure guys.

I look at the moves that a team like Oakland or even the Orioles made this offseason and I can't help but be a little envious. A little creativity is all anyone is asking for, RAJ. With the winter meetings around the corner, I'm not optimistic that the Phillies will do anything but throw more money at the problem.

"Enter the pitcher with a 6.25 ERA in the minors that had one good year. Or the toolsy outfielder hitting .218."

I had a shiver from how spot-on that was.

"Another .500 yr coming up"
-Hot Stove

Being a little optimistic, aren't we?

Revere makes contact better than almost anybody in the game (ranked 2nd overall behind Scutaro over the past two years in contact%, min 100 PA). Contact is not his problem, it is his GB rate and walk rate which keep him off the basepaths.

Also, to trade Papelbon, they will need to eat at least $3m / season to get his AAV into Joe Nathan's territory (2y/$20m).

If they want to get anything of value in return, they will either need to eat significantly more salary, or include something of value (ie Revere), or take on someone else's bad or redundant contract.

Trading Papelbon? There is a problem there. If it was a hip problem that was causing his dropoff last season, then has it been fixed? If it has, there is little point to trading him because we can be pretty sure Rube has no plan to close games if it's not him.

If it was the hip, has it been fixed? Or was it a time and medication thing? Can we trust the Phillies' cracked medical staff to know?

And in the final analysis, if this team heads into the season with the spotty starting pitching and putrid offense it now seems to have, why bother having a closer at all. He won't be getting enough work to make a difference.

It's not a knock on a Papelbon for Gardner deal. I would have a problem with dumping Revere and expecting that to be a straight up win. Short term maybe but Revere is way more inexpensive than Gardner the next few years. You could bring in someone to replace Revere but I find it disingenuous that the same people who say Revere is skeptical defensively, are the same ones basically relegating him to defensive sub territory. Of course- at least one of them was beating the defense drum last year ignoring facts.

Why? "but it's hard to envision the Phillies signing two international free-agent starting pitchers in the span of six months." Why would this be a problem?

Upgrading over Revere makes sense because upgrading over any player at any position is a win for the team. If you have the opportunity to do it, you should do it.

Dumping Revere after the upgrade instead of making him the 4th OF makes no sense when you consider who the fourth OF is...unless you think they can get a better package of players than May and Worley in return. I'm skeptical.

Point about Revere's cost control relative to Gardner noted.

I'm still willing to gamble that Hernandez can develop into at least what Revere currently is/will be thru 2017. Failing that, you should be able to find a cheap 4th-OF-backup-CF type in some subsequent salary dump/trade this deadline if you're awful in July.

Maybe you can even get Revere back when the Yanks want to trade for Gardner at the deadline because Ellsbury's injured :)

Why trade Revere? Gardner is older and still bats lefty. During the time Revere got going you saw a different Phillies team. Whats with all this talk about trading Dom Brown another young bat? The Phillies arent a senior citizens home. Keep Brown and Revere. Phillies have a lot of money. Would love to see them jump into the mix for Matt Kemp. Would be great to see him in RF with Marlon Byrd our 4th OF. To get Kemp we should look at the Fielder for Kinsler type of trade offer the Dodgers Papelbon and maybe Kyle Kendrick. What we have learned in the recent years is that long term deals rarely workout. The Phillies should go back to idea of 3-4year maxs for pitchers and 5 years for everyday players. Avoid David Price.

"Failing that, you should be able to find a cheap 4th-OF-backup-CF type in some subsequent salary dump/trade this deadline if you're awful in July."

You would think so. But again, look at who the 4th OF is now. Do you really think Amaro would be able to properly identify a cheap 4th OF at the deadline, let alone get him as a throw-in?

People are arguing that unless you get something of value back for Papelbon, it's pointless trading him. That's even more the case with Revere. He's young, cheap, controllable and can be used off the bench if you find a better starting option. Basically exactly what the team is lacking.

When RAJ gave up Vance Worley (a steep price at the time) to get Revere, he had absolutely no way to know that we would be getting a guy with a rag arm and no power at all. Now that this deeply guarded mystery has been found out, I could easily see RAJ trading Revere. After all, this year's mantra is "power."

I actually thought Revere would get traded or another CF would be acquired. I thought it might be Fowler. Sandberg's comment about Revere moving to LF definitely raised an eyebrow.

Now that all the CF have signed, and Fowler is off the market, I'm not sure who else is available that would take his place (besides this Gardner fantasy trade for Papelbon).

Can we look at the division right now and say we are third best? I think this team is worse then the fish and mutts. I believe last place and 71-78 wins. Are about right on as the team stands now.

Paps for our old friend Joe Blanton straight up, saves us about 6mil this year & he we pay his 1mil buyout next year.

It takes unique thinking to pull off these trades. I don't think amaro has enough creativity
to pull a Fowler trade off or sign a significant piece 4 a reasonable contract.

"I can't wait for all the posts from DPat in the future about how the Phillies should've signed Beltran. Looking forward to reading those."

Red~ They didn't sign him 2 years ago and they shouldn't have signed him now. Not at 36.

That's also why I have an issue with the Byrd signing. He may have been the cheapest option for them but @ 36, I bet they could've gotten him for 8 million total.

Salisbury wrote they didn't get younger or better and that's true. Also, that everything is quiet. That's also true. And just to be clear, I wasn't comparing the Manship and Mujica signings, just merely pointing out pointing out that to get Mujica, they would've probably had to go to 3 years and when your team is bad, you wind up with guys like Manship in your system. You're not going yo get the better talent unless you overpay (Mariners/Cano. It's obvious the Phils are no longer going that route.

And now RAJ is trying to unload Papelbon. Good luck with that. Once again RAJ has had a very poor off-season and what we'll see is another lackluster season because he is not capable of upgrading this team. He did get value for Kratz, but that doesn't outweigh what has happened so far. But there are no big trades nor FA signings that he will/can/should pursue IMO.

Unlike some people, I'll admit when I'm wrong. I know I'm negative and cynical, but over the last 3 years RAJ hasn't done much to keep this tean where it once was. And I don't see that changing anytime soon.

Ice~ I agree with you on Revere, but he doesn't hit for power and can't throw. The only value he has to other teams is that he's a very good defensive player and inexpensive. RAJ is not trading inexpensive players with the payroll like it is.

Coach KM, I agree. Unless Roob pulls something out of his hat before spring, I think we'll be 5th.

The marketing folks have an even bigger challenge in 2014. I've mentioned before that I like CBP when expectations are lower because it is easier to get to/from the park, and the smaller crowd is mostly interested in the game.) But that doesn't work for filling a stadium.

"After all, this year's mantra is "power."

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Saturday, December 07, 2013 at 01:40 PM

And it will sad yet amusing in some way when Amaro trades Ruf to some AL team for some stiff middle reliever and he hits 25 or 30 homers next year.

Sources say Pap for Kemp.

Then I'm buying Sources dinner.

Car Wash-- What sources? I'd do that even-up all day, assuming Kemp checks out physically. Of course, it's the Phillies doctors who have to declare him fit. so there's that.

Nothing short of a couple salary dump trades of select overpriced veterans will satisfy this fan at these upcoming meetings. Ruben has 2 years to rally his career as a GM and he knows it. Just do it. (2 yrs. late).

Those Yankees are just the most idiotic organization in Baseball. All they do is sign player after player every offseason, and never go into rebuild mode. When will those stupid Yankees accept reality and trade Jeter, A-Rod and Sabathia for prospects and rebuild for 5 years. Those Yankees are so clueless, no wonder they never win championships.

RAJAH's return on these trades will establish the plan for the future. I thinking an OF and SP. Pitching, speed and defense. Probably never happen.

That is I'm thinking. I'm watching another sport.

I'd like to see Matt Kemp and I'd even go franco, defratus, ruff and martin and I think the dodgers would take that while eating a little dough at the same time. I'd really like to see Dom Brown moved in a package for Andrus and try to get JStroll to waive his NTC then sign either Jimenez or Garza,.....paplebon is more valuable here as long as we have something worth while to close

Here's something that flew under the radar:

Tsuyoshi Wada is now a free agent. For those unfamiliar with Wada, he is known as Dr. K in Japan.

Should the Phils bite?

Tsuyoshi Wada see u laada. 10 mil post cover it?

Oh Rule V'er. OK

I pray Ruben can procure just 1 big young named player to give some life to the team. Just 1 splash deal. Make amends.

Tsuyoshi Wada is a southpaw with an impressive repertoire of pitches, all of which he throws for strikes.

Chad Qualls got a 2 year, $6 million deal with a 3rd year club option for another $3.5 million.

See, Rube isn't the only idiotic GM out there giving out an extra year to guys that dont deserve it.

Gotta say, if I were the Yankees, I'd be happier with McCann, Ellsbury, Beltran and Kuroda over Cano.

If they add Infante too as is pretty likely, they've had a pretty solid off-season...and they'll likely add another pitcher as well.

MG: "Revere has value as a part-time player but he's miscast as an everyday CF."

Sigh, Revere's injury last summer has allowed you to spend another offseason spouting this BS. Deep down you know he was rubbing your face in it while he was a hitting machine for 2 and a half months.

Hey Rube, Be the Yankees. One more time. Turn your creative self loose.

Logan Morrison is the type of guy the Phils should be looking to acquire. Team controlled for next 3 years with potential to be a very strong hitter.

Would pair nicely with Ruf as the LH bat off the bench. Instead we have Mayberry.

And Morrison could easily suck, but its these buy low players that this team needs to hope to hit on if the are going to make a rebound in the future.

Is the posting fee max really going to be $20M? That is a joke. All the Astros have to do is put up $20M, and then they can sign him to whatever freaking deal they want because every single other team in baseball will want to trade them a kings ransom for him.

him being Tanaka of course

It doesn't quite work like that....supposedly, every team that posts the maximum fee would have an equal opportunity to negotiate with him and it wouldn't go by draft order as previously proposed.

As it is, the Golden Eagles will probably hold onto him for another year and simply post him next year as they'll still get the $20 million and they'll get another full year of their best player at a reasonable salary.

as LorecorE said, revere was basically richie ashburn for 2 1/2 months. he has always hit for average. i don't understand this notion that his only value is defense. he's a sparkplug. his job is to be on base for howard. and to prevent howard from having to lead off the 2nd.

From the Former Phillies Watchlist:
Chad Qualls signed a 2yr/$6MM deal with the Astros today, which also includes an option of an unknown type worth $3.5MM for 2016.

Yowza. Given Jeff Luhnow is decidedly not a yutz, what are we to make of this move? Is derisive laughter the order of the day, or does Luhnow really think Qualls can repeat the year he put up with the Fish last season?

It's almost as if Qualls might be helped by pitching in large ballparks like Petco and Marlins Park.

Glad to see local product joe wendle win minor league player of year award. In a talented group of Indians players. I think he's gonna stick. Again keep an eye on him.....

2 rule 5 picks for Ruben = twice the amount of Mini Marts on the team. (or maybe Mini Mart beats out Mayberry then we can watch 3 of them drive the team towards the #1 pick in the 2015 draft

Shouldn't it be, "Who will be left by the Winter Meetings?"

We are talking about people here, not 'things.'

That's also why I have an issue with the Byrd signing. He may have been the cheapest option for them but @ 36, I bet they could've gotten him for 8 million total.

Dpat: This has been mentioned already but it bares repeating because you still don't seem to understand. The market value on Byrd was 8 million per to MLBTR and 7.5 million per to Fangraphs. So the Phillies got him at 8 million per which seems right in line with what people thought he would get. The third year maybe not and that can be a legitimate gripe but the dollar amount is not.

Also,

Phillies thought they had Feldman for 2 yrs at $15 mill. Then Stros came in and swooped him away.

I'd eat some money to trade Papelbon. At some point you have to enter in his demeanor and how that effects a clubhouse over the course of 200 games. Twisted a bit on Revere. I love his attitude and aggressiveness. I don't get the defensive value others do. He takes bad routes, has poor jumps that he then tries to outrun, and lastly, he has the worst arm in mlb...literally. Teams will continue to take 3rd from 2nd and 2nd from first on this guy. Utley has to go a third of the way to the outfield for his relay throws. His lifetime obp is poor. Hopefully Ryno, who stresses the strike zone and obp, can help the cause. I would take him over Gardner though based on the fact that we will be in rebuild mode come the All Star break, when Amaro is gone and the organization goes into trade and rebuild mode. Gardner, who I like, is older than Revere and adds to the salary problems this club already has.

How to fix the Phillies in a sorta kinda sense. Ellsbury was my choice for Cf but he's gone now. Revere still needs to be a reserve, but there is noone better in Free Agency. Need to trade Pabelbon for a CF and make Ethan Martin or a Free Agent the closer.

C Ruiz
1b Howard / Ruff
2b Asche
3rd Franco
SS Galvis

CF Revere
RF Morse Ruff
LF Brown Byrd

Bench of: Ruff (L) Revere (L) Byrd (R)

S Hamels, Lee, Gonzalez, T (Rollins), Kendrick or Burnett
R Papelbon,

1. Revere CF
2. Brown LF
3. Morse RF
4. Howard 1 B
5. Franco 3 B
6. Ruiz C
7. Asche 2 B
8. Galvis S S

4FA (2 OF / 2 P) 2 Trades ℗

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