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Monday, December 16, 2013

Comments

Now that Ruben has moved Paps/Lee/Hamels off the mound he's spinning his firewheel to include the rest of the diamond.

This gets its own header but the demise of Mini-Mart doesn't?

""Something creative" = try to dump overpriced, aging veterans on someone else.""


nokwurst, you should have added: "whether they're an upgrade or not."

Repeat from end of last thread (on the Davidson-Reed trade):

The only thing Asche has done better than Davidson is hit for average. Davidson has a lot more power and a better OBP despite the lower BA. Neither is any great shakes defensively.

If the ChiSox had offered Davidson and we had offered Asche, I doubt very seriously the D-Backs would have chosen Asche. If we had offered Franco, that would be a different story. But trading Franco for a relief pitcher would be nuts.

I for one am missing Mini Mendoza.

That's an interesting trade between the White Sox and Diamondbacks, Addison Reed for Matt Davidson.

I think I like it better for the White Sox, since the chance at a good everyday 3B is more valuable to the White Sox than a closer right now.

Oops. Forgot his name already.

"But with a salary less than $1 million next year, Galvis would come a lot cheaper and be worth the slight dip in offense to allow the Phillies to allocate Rollins' money to fill other needs in the starting rotation or bullpen."


Mike, the reason the above is an uninformed comment - especially from someone who's supposed to be more in "the Know" than us BL schlubs, is that there is no guarantee this team will spend the savings elsewhere.

One of the reasons we were given for the Pence and Victorino trades was that they would use the "savings" (13MM and 9MM, respectively) to 'reinvest' in other areas of the team.

Instead, they reduced payroll and we got Delmon and Michael Young.

It's not very complicated: This team, despite the drop in attendance, will see an infusion of cash from the national TV deal and MLB's online operations.

Montgomery had imposed an arbitrary limit on player salaries.

If they wanted to spend more money the could right now.

They don't need to dump contracts in order to do so.

Also from last thread:

BAP: Color me slightly unconvinced about Davidson's power (as compared to Asche's). He's spent a lot of time in the "high-power" minors systems, and hasn't put up ISOs dramatically greater than Asche did in Reading and Lehigh.

Additionally, the higher MLB SLG he posted came entirely as a result of Chase Field (and a high BABIP there). Small sampe size, but his 1.247 home OPS makes that .478 away OPS look a lot nicer when taken in conjunction.

Not saying Asche's better, or even that his power's as good, but I don't think we can judge it not to be either. At least not yet.

If the Phillies wanted to force Rollins' hand, he would waive his no-trade rights. Forcing his hand consists of Ryne Sandberg calling him on the phone & saying: "Hey Jimmy, we love everything you've done for the organization, but we're in a rebuilding phase right now. We think Freddy Galvis is our SS of the future, but we really need to find out by giving him 500 ABs this year. We know you'd still like to start, so we've actually been looking around at possible trades and we think we've got one worked out. It's up to you now. You can either accept the trade and be a starter or stay here & be a backup."

I guess what I'm saying is: RAJ should proceed on the assumption that Rollins's no-trade rights are not an obstacle.

awh: Michael Young cost about $6MM. Mike Adams another (averaged) $6MM.

Victorino wasn't technically due anything from us in 2013, since his contract was up. After that piss poor 2012, I'd have been leery of offering him a QO, and I certainly wouldn't have thought him worth the deal he got from the BoSox. Color me surprised that he has (and then some), so far.

That said, I agree there appears to be an arbitrary (baseball-wise) limit on salaries. However, they did go out and spend some money after making those moves. Even if it wasn't on good signings.

bap, Jimmy has already said he will not accept a trade.

Therefore, and discussion of his going somewhere in a deal is wasted time.

To wit, Olney has wasted his own time as well as others.

b_a_p: I'd love to see the Phillies essentially bench Rollins in an attempt to force a trade, but that probably falls under the auspices of "embarrassing a veteran". r00b never should have brought him back, & certainly not w/ a ridiculously attainable option year.

""Something creative" = try to dump overpriced, aging veterans on someone else.""


nokwurst, you should have added: "whether they're an upgrade or not."

Posted by: awh™
--------------------------------------------

True, and there's other footnotes/caveats, such as:

"even though it contradicts recent contracts to other veterans (Utley/Byrd.)"
"even though the payroll savings will not be reinvested in other intelligent contracts."

Etc, etc.

Eh, not just that, but I think any good attorney would make the argument that it was a benching in bad faith, since all of their backup options are legitimately bad (the "slight" drop-off from Rollins to Galvis - even in 2013 - isn't so slight when you factor in the .631 OPS Freddy posted in 266 AAA PAs this year).

Then, Rollins would get his option, possibly "and then some," and the Phillies' reputation would take a serious ding, since part of the reason they'd been viewed so positively by experienced players was how they treated their vets.

The prospect of Freddy Galvis playing a full season is the scary thing here, not Rollins' foolish insistence on playing out his career as a Phillie.

He's not "unproven," he's "ungood."

'buster, exactly. Look what the "big trade" with Toronto has done to the Marlins.

Stanton is reluctant to sign an extension, and top tier free agents look at it and say "No way, Jose".

Eh. Marlins couldn't really tarnish their reputation any more than they already had the last two times they had a big sell-off. The only thing Torontogate did was further embitter the fan-base, I'd think.

Phillies might not look like a great place to settle in for a run at a ring these days, but at least they're seen as somewhere that won't go out of their way to make you look bad if you're a vet.

It's becoming quite clear Rube is punting '14. Also quite clear that this is probably his last season as our GM.

I'd probably be a bit surprised if Amaro got fired before the end of his contract. If he really is being ordered from on high, I imagine they'd at least have to pay him out the rest of his contract to avoid him filing suit.

That'd be a pretty sizable unemployment check, though.

Maybe they've already told Rube he's fired after 2014 and banned him from making any major moves that would hamstring the next GM.

We can hope, right?

Doesn't make a ton of sense to fire a guy (before his contract expires) at the end of the season that hasn't started yet.

Unless Sandberg has said he doesn't want a new guy in the GM office for his first full year, I guess? That'd be a pretty weird stipulation, though.

Seems to me that every time someone criticizes a particular move or contract that Rube hands out, someone else will pipe up with "That amount of money will be no impediment to signing good players in the future." When Rollins was given that four year contract, even though he was clearly going to decline during the time it was in force, people were saying how reasonable it was. And for the Rollins of five and six years ago, yes, it would have been very reasonable.

But now the Phillies have not signed one legitimate difference maker and all those extensions and tiny contracts to garbage players have added up to put them at their self imposed salary cap. So, I think we have to say that all those little bad contracts do add up and do keep the team from signing better players.

What I'm saying is that if you're trying to dump a Papelbon and a Rollins in the middle of their contracts, you shouldn't have signed them in the first place. And does anyone think that Ruben Amaro Jr. has learned anything at all from this experience? Because I don't think he has. He seems like someone singularly unable or unwilling to examine his actions in the context of their abject failure.

Wow. Two posts in a row starting with "eh," followed by two in a row ending with "though."

I may be getting predictable.

aksmith: "But if you're going by WAR $-value, Rollins has actually performed up to par with his contract!"

/Devil's Advocate

I wonder if, in a couple of decades, it will come out that the current crop of MLB pitchers has been taking some sort of PED that enhances their muscle strength without strengthening their ligaments - almost singlehandedly explaining the increase in TJ surgeries.

Philli - If Rollins has performed up to par with his contract based on WAR, then WAR is full of it. And as we know, WAR dollar values include a whole lot of Dodger and Yankee dollars given to players who would not have gotten that kind of contract from anyone else averaged in. So, the dollar figures per WAR are skewed by a small handful of big spending teams. If your team is not one of them, then WAR dollar values don't really mean anything.

A couple of years ago, the Phillies were one of the teams driving up WAR dollar values. But since they no longer are, those numbers seem pretty irrelevant.

This team has no future unless you replace them all with young kids . WE did that in the past very successfully.

People are forgetting that there aren't all that many great offensive shortstops in the majors at this point...By most measurements, Rollins was somewhere around the 12th best SS in the majors last year. Yeah, he's overpaid, but you're going to replace him with Galvis? Really? I'm sure that will go well...

aksmith: I think WAR values are full of it. That's why I used the "/Devil's Advocate" close-tag.

Chris - Either you think this team is competitive or you don't. I don't. And Rollins as shortstop doesn't make them any more competitive than Galvis at shortstop.

So why spend the money? The last thing I want to watch is Rollins fading into oblivion as a Phillie. And that's what he is doing. His offense is declining, but what is alarming is his diminishing range at shortstop.

He is the best Phillies shortstop ever. Even with all his flaws, he has been a very good player for a long time. I'd like to remember him that way and it's becoming harder and harder to do that.

On the Axford front, MLBTR is reporting he's getting $4.5MM base plus $1.75MM in incentives, for a total of $6.25MM is everything goes right. That's about in the ballpark I expected, though I thought there'd be more on the incentive side and less on the base pay side.

I think I'd've been content with the Phils if they'd made that deal. As between Lincoln and Axford, the bullpen would've markedly improved, as the Phils picked up a pair of guys with upside who remained decent enough middle relief options in the event they couldn't reach their loftier ceilings. But good for the Indians: Here's hoping the Phils decide to land one of the other decent veteran fish in the reliever sea.

awh: As Phillibuster pointed out, the Phillies did spend a portion of that money on Young and Adams. And don't ignore the fact that Adams' signing was viewed by the majority as a positive at the time -- it just didn't work out with his injury, but he was a great setup man in years prior.

I do agree however that the Phillies have self-imposed a cap in payroll around $170 million -- which made sense when that was just under the luxury tax but no longer does now that the tax is $189 million. They could spend more if they wanted. But presumably Jimmy's $11 million could be better spent elsewhere, even though as I pointed out in the post, he's very unlikely to go anywhere.

Given a full season, Galvis would probably put up a line around .240/.290/.380...that's a best case scenario of course in line with his previous efforts in the Majors.

More power than Rollins but far worse AVG/OBP skills than him...and its not as if Rollins is a great OBP guy.

aksmith - Are you also one of the people who laments the fact that stars never spend their whole career with one team? Would you rather the Phils had traded/released Schmidt before his final ignominious season? You want a life-long Phillie? You've got one (several, really). This is what the end looks like. If you are sure the team won't be competing this year (or next) what's the harm in having Rollins around? Because it tarnishes your memory of the good times? Come on.

Again, posters acting clueless about the ever-rising salaries. Contracts can't be judged as good or bad or cheap or expensive EXCEPT by comparison to the prevailing norm. Given the ridiculous nature of contracts in baseball today can anyone with a clue say that Rollins contract has been bad?

Those fans who have admittedly hated Rollins his entire career will constantly say how bad his contract is.

Full disclosure: I don't think the Rollins contract is really that bad. I'd probably have been happier if the AAV was closer to the $14MM range, but lacked the option year, but at the time the deal was signed I wouldn't have.

That said, by the standard WAR approximation, Rollins has at least performed up to contract level. If you want to revise WAR value annually, he's likely to outperform his contract by the time he finishes - unless he gets injured.

I also think WAR is a not-very-useful stat in general, and specifically think its use for evaluating FA contracts borders on inanity, but if you like it, there's that.

NEPP: That's not a bad projection for Galvis, and even may be a bit high. He has a pronounced split hitting LHP better than RHP.

Zips says .256/.319/.384 for Rollins and .249/.285/.376 for Galvis. Will this offense be worse than last years? I think so.

Either you think this team is competitive or you don't. I don't. And Rollins as shortstop doesn't make them any more competitive than Galvis at shortstop.

Bingo. And at this point I'd rather watch the Phillies be a terrible team w/ Galvis than watch the Phillies be a terrible team w/ Rollins. At least Freddy appears to appreciate having an opportunity to play the game, & I find it more enjoyable to watch players who are having fun than those who are counting stats & collecting a paycheck.

From the MLBTR article:
"Rollins tallied 666 PAs in 2013..."

And then:

aksmith: "But if you're going by WAR $-value, Rollins has actually performed up to par with his contract!"

/Devil's Advocate

Posted by: Phillibuster
-------------------------------------------

Hmmm, I always suspected the Phils FO sold their souls for the '08 WFC...

GTown: "At least Freddy appears to appreciate having an opportunity to play the game, & I find it more enjoyable to watch players who are having fun than those who are counting stats & collecting a paycheck."

Then you should be Mini-Mart's biggest booster.

Tanaka will definitely be posted.

I kinda wish the Phillies had done this: "FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal reports that the Astros have agreed to a one-year, $2.45 million contract with reliever Matt Albers."

clout: Galvis is never going to be a star, or most likely even a regular, but isn't comparing him to the single worst player in the history of the franchise a bit cruel?

But he had a great time being that bad.

GTown: I wasn't using skill to compare the two. I was using YOUR criteria.

There are still people out there that think Rollins' contract was a bad deal?

I guess as long as there are people who have a blind hatred towards him, people like that will exist. I don't count aksmith in this group because I have no earthly idea what point he's trying to make.

It's easy to look at JRoll's (predictable) slight decline in 2013 and consider his signing a bust, but I distinctly recall that the collective wisdom on the days leading up, and the eventual, signing day was that there was essentially no better alternative on the market (and no real trade opportunities).

That's not to say they "settled" per se, as he's still at the very least passable. The problems that have now resulted (and were predictable, we just preferred the best available player at the time) are more related to the 10 and 5 NTC and the signature RAJ vesting option year. In hindsight, if JRoll is set to "break club records" perhaps RAJ outbid himself by even offering the vesting year.

He's serviceable and playing out his waning years with the club that brought him to MLB. Considering that most of us have resigned ourselves to the next couple of years as being somewhat 'throwaway' years, his presence on the roster and resultant "untradability" is tolerable if nothing else, and certainly the exact opposite of a surprise. Let's not pretend he's a bad guy for his wanting to play out the contract he electively signed.

****Given the ridiculous nature of contracts in baseball today can anyone with a clue say that Rollins contract has been bad?***

Nope, its basically exactly market value.

***That's not a bad projection for Galvis, and even may be a bit high. He has a pronounced split hitting LHP better than RHP.***

Yeah, I thought about it a bit before posting it. Even with that unfavorable split, I figured his "best case" would be a slight improvement over last year's numbers due to more experience and his age (he should still be getting better). His percentage splits last year 24.77% vs LHP/75.23% vs RHP so his numbers last year which were right below that in each area weren't aided by any platoon advantage. If anything, smart usage of him where he's rested against tough RHP might help him a bit.

Still, that line isn't that exciting from a starting SS if he were one.

Quick question: If Rollins were traded...who's the backup SS once Galvis is in the starting role?

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/12/free-agent-regulars.html

Amazing how bare the FA cupboard is by mid December this year and overall. This is the new reality of free agency and it makes it very very difficult to improve via FA signings.

"Then you should be Mini-Mart's biggest booster."

When the Phillies are 20 games under .500, and 25 games out of 1st place, Beerleaguer is going to miss the comic relief that Mini-Mart provided.

Rollins is not leaving because RAJ thinks he can win with this team and a few more oldsters. Its as simple as that. Heck Boston did it last year why not RAJ this year.

Saying the team should trade Rollins and that his contract is bad are not the same thing.

I think Rollins' contract was perfectly a perfectly fair deal. I also would support trading Rollins if you could move him for a good return.

These are not mutually exclusive things--in fact, they support each other. If Rollins' contract was so bad (say, like a certain first baseman), you'd have no chance of trading him.

NEPP: Interesting name on that list: SS Stephen Drew. Love to see what Boras is able to get for him.

Issue is what happens if the Phils decide to bench JRoll if he is really struggling again in say August so his option doesn't vest. It is going to get really ugly and JRoll will speak his mind publicly.

Drew and Choo are the big names among position players remaining.

Drew feels like a guy that isn't going to get a ton due to that comp pick.

Rollins signed a year contract with the Phillies and wants to finish it out here. Man, what a prima donna.
And I'm supposed to be upset that the guy has a personal goal of breaking some records and having that as part of his legacy? Good grief.
So he doesn't run out some meaningless ground balls here and there so try to keep himself a bit healthier. Whoop di do. Rollins is a Phillies legend, and last year was the first in over 10 years that he wasn't an above average player. He deserves to be cut some slack by the vultures.
I'd also like it explained to me what we're gonna do with the money we "free up" by getting rid of him. Sign a different mediocre player to a longer term than the 2 years we're committed to Rollins?

My point on Rollins is the same point that has been made here over and over. Holding onto veterans beyond their prime makes for ugly, losing baseball. Sure, Rollins isn't the worst problem on the Phillies. But he is a symptom of what is wrong with the Amaro/Montgomery approach of keeping recognizable names instead of trying to make the team better.

I would much rather see the Phillies do what Billy Bean does every year, than what Ruben Amaro does every year. He takes a lot less money and uses it very creatively. That, at least, keeps things interesting. Yes, there would be few or no career Phillies. And to that I say "So What." I like living in the present a lot more than living in the past. And with the type of budget the Phillies have, compared with the A's, it would be more of question of which players you keep around, than getting rid of everyone who makes any money. So, Tim Hudson might have retired an A, or come close to it. But Ryan Howard wouldn't retire a Phillie. Chase Utley and Cole Hamels might retire as Phillies. But maybe Ruiz wouldn't.

If you go through and evaluate players on a regular basis and consider alternatives, you don't often get trapped into longterm messes like the one Amaro has created now.

This is all moot anyway. The Phils aren't moving anyone. Pap, Rollins, no one. Even if they could, it would only be for salary relief purposes, not to improve the club.

Why? Because Roob had chances to do just that and he didn't. Now, I'm not saying whom they could've should've signed or traded, but the new players Rood brought in aren't going to make a difference. It was plainly evident that they weren't going to play the big money contract game. And, in many cases, who could blame them?

But I see a team that was not upgraded at all, and if they could trade high-prices vets, they only vets who have value IMO would be Lee and Hamels. They couldn't get value in return for anyone else due to age alone.

The biggest mistake that Roob has made over the last 2-3 years is that he looked at the team through rose-colored glasses. It's not that they didn't have talent. They did and still do. It's that he didn't properly fix what was broken. He didn't then and he can't now. This is a 70-win team with a high payroll. But to Roob, it's "built to win". Good luck with that.

Mike W: "Moving Rollins wouldn't line up with the moves the Phillies have been making this offseason"

If it were up to the Phillies, it'd line up exactly with the moves they would be making this offseason. Unfortunately for them, the other 29 teams aren't cooperating.

In 2013, Rollins had a poor season, especially for his standards, and was not worthy his contract. In 2012, he was, by a rather decent margin.

In 2014, I believe he has a good chance to be worth his contract.

For example - in 2013 the average MLB SS had a .298 wOBA and a 85 wRC+. Rollins had a .295 wOBA and a 84 wRC+. He basically was a league average hitter for a SS who had a drastic dropoff in his defensive metrics, which in 1 year samples are not considered to be strong data.

I think a lot of his regression is age related, but I don't think last year was entirely the new Rollins. I would expect to see his defensive metrics rise and his offensive numbers to do so at a lesser degree.

Hey, mainerob -

RAJ Sr. was as about as much of a 2nd baseman and an outfielder as he was a “shortstop”…:

Rubén Amaro

In BR, he’s listed as a shortstop, 1st baseman, 2nd baseman and an outfielder. Whatever.

Maybe that’s where his RAJ Jr. got that asinine “versatility" thing.

The White Sox traded away Jake Peavy, Hector Santiago, and Addison Reed into Avisail Garcia, Adam Eaton, and Matt Davidson in less than 6 months.

The Whitesox were a lousy MLB team with a lousy farm system. Turning their few MLB assets into a strong upgrade in their future were all great moves in my opinion. Those 3 guys plus the new Cuban slugger could really speed up their turnaround.

How do you not like what the White Sox have done?

Quick question: If Rollins were traded...who's the backup SS once Galvis is in the starting role?

Pete Orr if he resigns as a MiLB FA, umm really there isn't a lot of depth at SS at this point not knowing what non-roster players going to spring training stick. In a perfect world does JP Crawford see a sudden rise through the farm if Rollins is gone?

Let me correct myself...

Rollins
Galvis
Frandsen

should be the depth chart for SS

Next question what would Alejandro De Aza cost in trade? He isn't a "bench bat" or backup but would provide excellent OF depth and even allow Ruben to trade JMJ.

Amaro questions what the White Sox have done.

I mean, do they have a single guy on their roster who's caught the last out of a season?

Pete Incaviglia caught the last out of a season. In '93.

Tired of Amaro giving contracts out that everyone but him can foresee him regretting. Very tired. The guy can't see the future past his next appointment to have his eyebrows waxed. Everything is now with him and he only gives lip service to building an organization that endures years into the future. I have been unhappy with him up until now, but I am done with him now.

Enough!

Go big (sign Tanaka) or go home.

Bottom line with Rollins is that if the front office doesn't want his 2015 option to vest, it will not vest.

Not defending Rollins or RAJ. Who knows Galvis may go on to be a plus glove and a .250 hitter. If we didnt sign J-Roll an Galvis was up batting .200 for the past 2 years most of us would blame Rube for not re-signing Rollins. At the time it was generally believed (well at least by Phils brass) that we where a WFC contender. I was actually open to letting Utley walk and auditioning Hernandez. This would of left more wiggle room budget wise. Now can this situation get ugly in the next year. Yea possibly so.

"RAJ Sr." = "Rubén Amaro (Sr.)". Now that's a dumb typo.

The Whitesox were a lousy MLB team with a lousy farm system. Turning their few MLB assets into a strong upgrade in their future were all great moves in my opinion. Those 3 guys plus the new Cuban slugger could really speed up their turnaround.

Posted by: LorecorE | Monday, December 16, 2013 at 10:20 PM

I simply refuse to believe that any player named Adam Eaton can succeed at the MLB level.

Bottom line with Rollins is that if the front office doesn't want his 2015 option to vest, it will not vest.

Posted by: Will Schweitzer | Tuesday, December 17, 2013 at 06:52 AM

That's not exactly true. If he stays healthy, the Phillies cant simply bench him to avoid having the option vest at 434 PA. If they attempted to do so, he'd immediately file a grievance with MLBPA and he's almost certainly win. Its against the rules to manipulate playing time in order to avoid a vesting option like that. It would also kill them with future contract negotiations with other guys wanting vesting options.

You can only bench a guy for performance (and you have to have a legitimately better option available). Its an ugly path to go down with a guy that has been a huge face of the franchise for the past decade.

Galvis is a utility infielder and the team would be worse off if he was the starter at SS. If the Phils somehow trade JRoll, then the backup become Brignac.

The Phils are stuck with JRoll just as they are with Papelbon. The whole debate though about when JRoll was signed was the 4th guaranteed year. Amaro essentially did cave on that point by the terms of the vesting option.

Now the Phils are stuck with between a rock and a hard place. JRoll doesn't want to leave, holds all the leverage just as Burrell did when Gillick tried to move him in vain repeatedly, and if they try to sit JRoll he will embarrass and cause the franchise grief publicly this year.

As for this steaming turd of a roster, that will be another GM's job to finish because Amaro is going to be the fall guy when this team win ~75 games or so again and attendance takes another nose dive.

Depressing part is that this team now is pretty much locked in being below average the next 2 years and then looking at a rebuilding period.

Phils' FO seems to have this notion that people will turn out for an aging, underperforming yet familiar roster again this year. I don't think they will and if this team is poor again by June there will be a ton of empty seats & no-shows last year. I had a tough time giving away seats last year to a few games in Sept.

Brignac...totally forgot about him. Thanks MG.

NEPP - That is a good point too about the vesting option although I am not sure how strong JRoll's case would be especially if he duplicates or has slightly worse numbers than last year.

JRoll's contract is why I really disliked the Chooch resigning. Basically, I bet they are stuck with a backup catcher making $8M in '15 and '16. Somebody other GM though will have to deal with that though along with Howard's contract.

The 2014 season will be painful to watch, it's just a matter of to what degree Amaro will be allowed to damage the roster for 2015/2016.

At this point it's all about who the next GM is going to be.

More and more I think about it, I do wish the Phils have actually followed Amaro's 'always double down on pitching' philosophy this offseason.

Phils were a below average/average team by every objective measure but where they really stunk last year was their bench/organizational depth, back end of their starting rotation, and the middle relief.

Has Amaro addressed a single one of these areas this offseason? Nope. He signed Hernandez and Lincoln which won't move the needle in any substantial or meaningful way in the rotation or bullpen.

Instead of signing Byrd to his deal, the Phils had actually used that money instead on a potential difference-maker like a Burnett or even Garza at starter. Also could have looked to resign KK a bit early and saw if they wanted to move him to sign someone else or pencil him as 4th starter.

This offseason has been far and away Amaro's worst offseason as a GM far and away from another other. Even last year, you at least had some hope that Halladay might rebound, KK would build on the end of the '12 season as a starter, and Lannan would be an acceptable 5th starter. L

Instead this has an offseason from the late 80s/early 90s when the Phils would sign a few token over-the-hill veterans to moderate deals.

Basically slap some new paint on a crumbling hovel and try to sell it as a great place to come and visit. Sadly, I don't even buy that Amaro has 'rose-colored' glasses anymore though. He knows this team isn't very good, players know it, and I think Sandberg does too but desperately wanted a chance to manage.

***at is a good point too about the vesting option although I am not sure how strong JRoll's case would be especially if he duplicates or has slightly worse numbers than last year. ***

If its mid June and Rollins is posting an abysmal line like .230/.290/.300 with poor defense (not likely by any means) and Galvis has been spot starting all around the diamond while posting something like .240/.290/.380 with good defense, they could easily argue that Rollins should sit due to performance. Given that Rollins only needs about 100 GS this year to make that option vest, I'm not sure how he wont do it even if he does transition to a part-time player.

There's also the issue of not having another guy to bat high up in the order (as Ryno will almost certainly go with Rollins/Revere at the top again). If Rollins were batting 8th like he probably should in a good lineup, the chances of him getting to the PA threshold would be far lower. Over a full season, the #1 spot gets about 760 PA while the #8 spot gets about 640 PA.

Of course, it would help if Galvis was actually significantly outplaying him (very unlikely) with a line like .250/.320/.400. I do not expect that and there is no basis for any such expectation given his previous performance and scouting reports. Thus, its very, very unlikely that Rollins would be benched and that his option will not vest...barring a major injury of course.

These stories are so ho-hum to me. I don't think a GM is doing his job unless EVERYONE on the roster is "available." Everyone should be "available" for the right price. If the right pieces are able to be had, then everyone should be expendable.

I know it's easier said than done because these are human beings and not faceless commodities, but if you can get a huge haul from someone for J-Roll, then she should be gone. Same with Utley, Howard, Brown, and so on. Problem is, you won't get a huge haul for most guys. That doesn't mean they shouldn't be "available." If a deal makes the team/franchise better, the GM should make the deal. It's that simple.

Best case scenario is that Bowa and Sandberg really motivate/ride Rollins and he responds by kicking arse at the plate and in the field for a great season where he's more than worth his $11 million salary. I could easily see him putting up a .700 OPSish season with decent defense next year.

and Lannan would be an acceptable 5th starter

_______________________________________

You had no hope Lannan would be anything even remotely acceptable.

"I could easily see him putting up a .700 OPSish season with decent defense next year."

Agreed.

This isn't quite what I had in mind for another reliever, but it could give us an indication of how much more they're willing to spend on the pen:

http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/Phillies_interested_in_Cardinals_reliever_Mitchell_Boggs.html

I refuse to call an offseason the worst one when there was an offseason where the GM signed a closer to a 4 year deal.

Or traded away Cliff Lee for magic beans.

I love how MG is still going on about the 'fourth guaranteed year' three years later.

They could bench him or he could get hurt. It is not guaranteed. This isn't rocket science.

Iceman - Yeah and a sinkhole could magically swallow him.

JRoll only needs to start about 110 G this year for the option to vest next year. Hell, he could even miss a month with a leg injury and still have it vest.

If he didn't have that vesting option, you wouldn't even being seeing these stories. Phils would let him just play out the deal and possibly trade him to a contender if JRoll wanted it at the deadline.

Instead you have a situation that will likely become acrimonious and be in the public domain.

From the article:

"He led the league in Holds with 34"

Wow...what an impressive stat. That's some nice Production there by Mitchell Boggs.

Granted it was in 2012 and he was brutally bad last year.

Boggs is probably worth a low 1-year incentive-laden deal but the Cards gave up on him and gave up on him early last year.

Also reported to have issues with their coaching staff and some of the recommendations they made to him on altering his mechanics.

With so many veteran FA relievers available, I would prefer the Phils sign someone else.

Iceman:
Except, given how Rollins' contract is constructed, it really is a guaranteed 4th year in Rollins wants it. As, even if the $11MM option doesn't vest, the teams holds an $8MM club option and Rollins holds a $5MM player option. Given Rollins' stated goal breaking several franchise records, he'll be back in Philly for 2015.

Though being back at $5MM in 2015 is better than $11MM, as given salary inflation, we're already to the point where utility IFs are making that figure. (See, e.g., Mark Ellis.)

I don't know how anyone can say this is the worst offseason when no draft picks have been given up to sign free agents. The new efficiency in baseball is to hold onto prospects like gold. To see the Phillies do this after a decade of signing Type A free agents is a step in the right direction.

Now having faith in their scouting and development programs to select and develop the players is another issue altogether.

When I look at Mitchell Boggs performance and numbers for his career, I see a guy that had 1 really good season (2012) that was aided by an unsustainable LOB% and a very low BABIP. I also see a guy that lost a couple MPH off his fastball last year and paid the price for it. Outside of 2012, he's been a very average reliever no better than someone like Clay Condrey was back in the day. Nothing to get excited about and not likely to be a very good player going forward into his 30s (He turns 30 in Feb).

He threw hard and didnt do much else...now he throws less hard and gets hit around as a result.

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