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Monday, December 02, 2013

Comments

Navarro would not fir in. Too young

I'd prefer J.P. Arencibia to Navarro actually. Righty power hitter is what the Phillies need right?
Maybe he'd walk a bit more batting 8th with the pitcher behind him and he's young.

I like Ruiz, just not thrilled with the 3rd year guarantee and price. Would've preferred a 3rd year vesting or playing time salary escalation but with Phillies above average budget hopefully it will not limit them.

lone positive of Papelbon's contract: It's (hopefully) stopping Amaro from trading Biddle for Jim Johnson.

Are we assuming Amaro didn't offer Navarro a deal and he turned it down? Also look at all the grief that was pointed to Kratz early in the season. Maybe Ruben was afraid that could happen with Navarro. With no Chooch you'd be stuck.

Navarro and use the funds elsewhere. I don't think this team can contend for a playoff spot next year under any circumstance.

Amaro just left a $8M+ backup catcher on the '16 team for another GM to deal with.

Navarro and use the funds elsewhere. I don't think this team can contend for a playoff spot next year under any circumstance.

Amaro just left a $8M+ backup catcher on the '16 team for another GM to deal with.

Posted by: MG | Monday, December 02, 2013 at 02:27 PM

If this is the case, then why not spend it on Ruiz? I'd rather watch Chooch age (un)gracefully than watch Dioner Navarro hack it up if my team is winning 70 games regardless of who they sign.

Seeing the Orioles trying to part ways with Johnson strictly due to $$ is the exact type of situation the Phillies need to get in on.

Trade them someone/anyone and add a lump of cash into the deal so the Orioles can afford to keep Johnson while the Phillies can ask for a younger player in return.

It'd technically be trading them their own player by giving them the $$ to keep him, and extracting a player in return.

Nothing in life is certain except death, taxes, and recurring Navarro/Ruiz arguments on Beerleaguer 2014-2015.

Doesn't matter on Navarro. Moot point. Ruiz deal was already done.

What bothers me is that the Phils need pitching help all around. Guys are being signed and the Phils have had absolutely no hard connection to ANY of them. Instead RAJ will settle for cheap scraps. Now I'm not saying that the guys who've signed are top-notch, but for a team that needs help and is doing absolutely nothing in the pitching market just boggles my mind. I realize the $$ money is whacky, but they've got to SOMETHING don't they?

Good point by Corey. It happens ever off-season here. Posters fall madly in love with fringe guys who have total outlier career years. Happened with Frandsen, happened with Kratz, with Herndon, Horst etc. etc.

Navarro, if he gets more than 300 ABs, will never sniff that 300/.365/.492 line again.

former top prospect SP Tommy Hanson is going to get non tendered.

I think he would make a perfect relief conversion project. His velocity diminished month by month from 2011 to 2013, which mirrored the decline of his effectiveness.

He was averaging 93 MPH during 2009-2010, then gradually dipped all the way down to 88 before he got demoted to the minors.

He received a Sept call up as a reliever and threw 37 fastballs before the end of season. Average FB? 93 MPH.

clout: "Posters fall madly in love with fringe guys who have total outlier career years. Happened with Frandsen, happened with Kratz, with Herndon, Horst etc. etc."

John Mayberry.

Arencibia was never gonna hit for AVG and his strikezone judgment is non-existent, so he was never gonna walk either. But his power is legit and the Jays, based on the scouting reports, thought he could give them .230 with 20 HRs and good defense.

Turns out his defense has never blossomed and his career AVG is .212, not .230. That's way too much downside to be offset by the 20 HRs.

I dont think you even needed the 300 AB caveat there...

To return to the interminable game of "How Much Would You Pay For A Kyle Kendrick," Scott Kazmir made 2/$22mm off the Oakland A's.

lorecore: I agree, for anyone who thought after 2011 that Mayberry was going to be an everyday player.

Given his youth and former status as a top prospect, I'd be that Hanson will immediately get an offer to start somewhere else...rather than give up starting and become a reliever.

FWIW. I'd still look at him as a possible 5th starter though...regardless of that.

I'd bet that is...stupid auto-correct.

Phillibuster: Kazmir was a better prospect, although he's had all kinds of injury problems. But the numbers aren't far off.

The Phils won't win with Navarro or Ruiz in 15 or 16. It's the third year that gets me juiced up when talking about Ruiz's contract. He'll be a very expensive backup that will provide very little when the Phils hopefully will begin an upswing.

With Amaro there's always more money than other teams are willing to spend, the extra year, relatively easy vesting options or large buyouts at the end of his FA signings. Cumulatively these transgressions delay the rebuild in keeping unproductive players around longer and by reducing payroll flexibility.

themick: agreed.

Ruiz without even batting an eyelash. Next question.

"for anyone who thought after 2011 that Mayberry was going to be an everyday player."

Ruben Amaro.

Clout: Kazmir was the better prospect 5 years ago.

The injuries, plus higher ERAs and WHIPs 4 of the past 5 years (only surpassing Kendrick in 2013 when he was the injured one) when he actually took the field would seem to negate a majority of that.

Kazmir isn't even an "innings-eater." Since '05, he's also only managed 5.2 IP/start, closer to 5.1 since '08, and the same in 2013. Most of his average-or-better starts in 2013 came against offensively-poor teams (SEA, MIN, HOU, NYM, MIA, and KC to a lesser extent - though he did have one average-to-good start each against OAK, BOS, BAL, DET, and CIN), and they tended to be in the 5-6-inning range.

He's not a bad bet to do well this year, but he's certainly no lock to do better than recent Kendrick, even assuming he manages to stay on the field.

Also, no way he ends up with 10 wins on an offense that wasn't 5th-most productive in baseball.

Although I guess Oakland was 4th-most, so maybe he'll be an adequate starter?

Hosnap. Paul Janish nontendered.

Get on the phone, Ruben. There's Utility to be had!

As we move along towards the non-tender deadline, I think Chris in VT brought up a good buy-low guy in the last thread with John Axford. Though "buy-medium" might be a more appropriate term, as he's going to be non-tendered over an arb-projection of $5.5MM while in this market he should be able to command at least $3MM with his pedigree, age, and the fact that his stuff and peripherals are for the most part still there. (That his HR/9 and HR/FB rates have tripled since the last time he was dominant are the only real red flag, and that seems to be the sole source of why he's no longer dominant.) Given what our bullpen looks like, we could do a lot worse 30 year-old with a plus fastball and the ability to find the strike zone with it.

Looking at the starting pitcher nontender candidates...is there any potential value there? As I'm not seeing it. If we're going to take a flyer on such a nontendered SP, I'd rather just pay Jon Lannan about what he was paid last year in the hope that this time he'll be the plugging bastion of mediocrity who'll eat 180 IP next year he's been all of his career.

"awh -- In response to your earlier comment about me being an ostrich with his head in the sand, or whatever the hell that was ... you honestly believe Kyle Kendrick is a $7 million pitcher? On this team, with this payroll, you would commit $7 million to Kyle Kendrick rather than put that $7 million toward Matt Garza or Ubaldo Jimenez? Really now?

K.

Just because Nolasco, who has significantly better K/BB numbers and higher peak performances than Kendrick, got $12MM a year by a team desperate for rotation help doesn't mean Kendrick is a $7 million pitcher to this team. I don't buy that at all. He's projected for 1.1 WAR in 2014."


Corey, the answer is "Yes", I do think he is a $7MM pitcher - based on what's going on in the marketplace.

You are doing EXACTLY what I stated others here were doing. Exactly.

You are being arbitrary as to what you think a player is worth. And your entire argument is based on nothing more than "I don't think so".

Now, if you want to use the WAR argument, which is dubious at best, then using Steamer's projections which are based on more than just last season - the first time in the last few years where he was a full time starter - is a bit problematic. Last season, when he was a full time starter for the entire year, he pitched 180 innings and put up 1.7 fWAR. Now, using 5MM/WAR, he WAS worth $7MM in 2013.

Now, you have to keep in mind that there's a lot of debate about WAR, and what teams are willing to pay for it when they sign players, and what the ACTUALLY pay for it over the life of contracts.

Lewie Polis, who won the 2013 SABR Analytics Conference Research Award, wrote an article which says that what teams are actually paying for 1 WAR in the FA market is actually $7MM. You can read it here:

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/10/15/4818740/how-much-does-a-win-really-cost

Dave Cameron at fangraphs responded that teams are actually projecting more out of the players when they sign them than they actually get, so that $5MM is the real number, but then isn't that the fun and interesting part of the debate.

But back to my point about the projection you cited. If KK only does as well as he did in 2013, then he'll put up 1.7 fWAR. So, even using the lower number of $5MM/WAR, yes, if he does that again he's worth $7MM.

And as to your point about Jiminez and Garza:

Jimenez , except for last season has been putrid, putting up negative WAR in both 2011 and 2012. Garza hasn't had a fully healthy season since 2011 and is an injury risk. So, no, I think Kendrick on a one year deal is a better option than either of those two based on the contracts they're projected to get. In two years you'd be pissing and moaning more about either of them than you will about Kendrick's $7MM in 2014.

The Kendrick vs Kazmir debate is like going to a used car lot and debating over a Chevy and a Cadillac. The Cadillac is going to be in the shop a lot more and has terrible mileage but it just "looks" better than the Chevy, doesn't it?

Navarro probably will suck next year but all the Chooch deal did was saddle the team with another guy in their late 30s on who will likely underperform in the 2nd year and be a $8M backup in '16.

"With Amaro there's always more money than other teams are willing to spend, the extra year, relatively easy vesting options or large buyouts at the end of his FA signings."


No sh8t, Mick, really?

r00b actually offers more money or years than other teams? Do you think that maybe that's why they sign in Philly?

I just read that Tim Hudson got offered 2/22 by Oakland, and instead took a 2/23 offer from the Giants. Do you think that the extra million MIGHT be the reason he signed with the Giants?

With the rate that average to below average pitchers are signing for in the current market, how much do you think the Phillies could realistically demand if Cliff Lee were made available?

(you know, assuming we had a general manager worth a damn)

Frandseon avoids arb and re-signs for 900K.

Will, it depends on how much of Lee's contract they are willing to eat.

Lee is worth every dime, but the problem is too few teams can afford him.

OTOH, if the Phillies were to pay half of his deal, he becomes affordable to even teams like the A's, Pirates, Royals, etc.

If that were to happen they could probably get a pretty decent haul of prospects.

We are tendering everyone, and already signed Frandsen to a $900K deal to avoid arbitration.

Anytime you can bring back the whole gang from a 73-win team, you gotta do it.

Will, the A's just gave Scott Kazmir 2/22.

If the Phillies paid half of Lee's salary, Lee costs a team 15.625MM for a 7.3 rWAR, 5.1 fWAR pitcher.

So the small market A's would only be paying another $4.625MM for Cliff Lee.

He's a steal at that price.

Jack, I'd be willing to bet Frandsen gets traded for a relief prospect or winds up stashed in AAA.

Why did they resign Frandsen again?

Shocker were stuck with Mayberry again! Mike Morse, Raja Davis, who needs them?

MG, Frandsen signed for 400K less than MLBTR projected he would get in arbitration. That's why. :)


Actually, Frandsen does provide depth and can hit LHP.

Or, would you rather they bring back mini mart?

Given that these are the Phillies, if Frandsen got himself an MLB deal, he's going to be on the MLB bench. Which strikes me as ridiculous, unless they've gotten word that they got that fourth option year on Hernandez they asked for.

Doug Fister traded to the Nats...no word on what they're giving up for him.

Damn.

That's a real nice acquisition for the Nats, depending on who they're giving up.

Haren to Fister is a sizable upgrade.

Fister? I hardly know her!

Rendon and/or AJ Cole maybe?

Espinosa if they kept Rendon?

***Haren to Fister is a sizable upgrade.***

Just a little bit of one.

Great. Another good pitcher to make our inept lineup look foolish.

Navarro is essentially a platoon guy who is coming off a career year and people are pining for him? This is the exact type of signing people criticize Amaro for making, and the complaints are basically- whatever Amaro does we want the opposite.


Also, I love that DPat has made pitching a priority now. Which pitcher that has signed for a ridiculous number should the Phillies have been on genius?

When a team trades its older star players for prospects, that's a re-build.

When a team keeps its older star players and adds a couple of good veterans, that's a re-load.

When a team keeps its older star players and most of its other players and adds a couple of average veterans, that's a re-run.

Rumors have it being Rendon going back to Detroit...

Career ERA+

Matt Garza 108
Ervin Santana 100
Dan Haren 112
Doug Fister 116

Not to mention that Fister comes with a cheap price tag and 3 years of team control.

Navarro is essentially a platoon guy who is coming off a career year and people are pining for him?

Navarro averages only 70 games a year. He's dead weight.

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