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Tuesday, December 10, 2013


8:18am: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports also hears that both Philadelphia aces are in play, but the Phillies won't eat any of the remaining money on either contract (Twitter link).

8:13am: The Phillies have indicated to other teams that they're willing to discuss Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee in trades, according to ESPN's Buster Olney (on Twitter).


So is there any plan whatsoever to Rube's actions?

Maybe they'd have some money leftover to acquire impact pieces if they hadn't given bloated multi-year deals to two aging ped-users. Fucking Amaro...

Amaro is an idiot.

Also got a blast from CBS Sports that the Phillies are willing to throw in Dom Brown if a team takes Papelbon.

Does Rube know this isn't the NBA? You can't tank so you draft the next LeBron James. He must've gotten drunk with Hinke last weekend.

I saw Gammons tweet that Rube would include Brown to get rid of Papelbon. If Brown is traded to to get us out from under Jonathan People-Boo's contract, the fans will revolt. This is unconscionable.

Maybe RAJ is trying to get fired? I guess we'll know when he ties the World Series trophy to his bumper and drags it around the CBP parking lot.

NEPP, plan?

This is an indication of an organization that seems totally lost - No rhymes or reason.

I can understand shopping Lee to a contender, but Hamels is still young enough to be around for the next upswing.

What pitcher do they expect to acquire who will be superior to him in the future - say, 3 years from now? He's one of the 15 best SP in MLB, and one of the 5 best LH SP.

WTF are they doing?

Should the owners fire Dave Montgomery and Amaro immediately?

If they trade Lee and/or Hamels, it's an indication of them committing to a total teardown.

It's got to be that season ticket renewals stink, and that they're not selling even individual game tix very well either.

So... like any Wharton guy, Montgomery's first reaction is probably to cut the budget - not improve the product.

Hey, Dave, we haven't forgotten what you did to us as fans in the 1990's. Do it again and you're going to get a reaction you don't expect or want!

He keeps a broken down Utley and tries to shop the still excellent Lee.

Amaro is an idiot.

Posted by: Bill

Bill, it's not Amaro. If they're shopping Hamels, it's not for baseball reasons.

It's because of MONEY.

That's coming from Montgomery and the owners - no one else.

I mean, r00b can't be serious right? He has to just be tossing this out there on the off chance that there is a GM out there that is dumber than him that will toss the Phillies a load of prospects and take all the salary. I just don't think there's anyone out there dumber than r00b.

Dump Brown to get rid of Papelbon?

It's Bobby Abreu trade time redux.

Total salary dumps may be coming. As I posted above, season tix sales must be in the crapper. Have we heard anything from them about that lately?

Maybe there have been a few luxury suite cancellations as well. Who knows? This doesn't sound goo though.

If the beat writers have any balls, Dave Montgomery will be getting phone calls about this... incessant phone calls.

These are not Amaro level decisions , boys and girls.

The beat writers don't have any balls. They're too afraid to have their press passes revoked. They have been increasingly snarky in their articles towards the FO, but they'll never push any buttons directly.

Between the new national tv deal that kicks in next year and the impending new local tv deal (we're about 30 days past the expiration of the "new deal within 30 days" announcement now), there is more than enough money to pay the entire payroll and then some even if they sell 5000 tickets a night.

WTF is going on in that FO?

Hetman says lee and Hamels are now being put up for trade

The FO has only ever cared about their investment, not winning. The new TV contract will only go to line their pockets. They'll never go near the luxury tax threshold regardless of how much the TV deal is worth.

The Hetman said that?!? Dear god, the Cossacks are on the loose again?!?

The only point to trading Hamels and/or Lee is to get a *ton* of talent in return. And to do that, you should be willing to eat some of the money. Obviously those guys, unlike Paps or Howard, are still good enough that you don't have to worry about money too much, but you should absolutely be willing to eat a little of it to maximize the return.

I almost wish that my other favorite team wasn't the A's so that I wouldn't have to see Beane making all kinds of clever moves during the offseason while r00b does his little song and dance. Night and frakking day. I just imagine r00b approaching Beane for something... like the town fool approaching the king for a trade. What follows is Beane robbing the Phillies dry and r00b feeling really great about the Production™ he's going to have. On second thought, maybe they never talk because r00b knows that the A's average OBP in 2013 was .327 and, well, you know what they say about that statistic..

Speaking of pitching says Rakuten's president/owner is heading to the winter meetings to talk Tanaka. This is interesting. The Golden Eagles are owned by Rakuten and they are a very interesting company for Japan. They've expanded drastically in the last few years under their current president. They've gotten into TV in Spain, e-commerce throughout Asia and are creeping into the U.S. I wonder what he has planned.
Will he say no to the new $20 mil cap on posting fees?
Will he try to work out broadcasting or merchandising deals with mlb as an exchange for Tanaka?

BL poster: "Why won't Amaro do anything and be creative?"

Sources: "Lee, Hamels, Brown, Papelbon are all available according to the Phillies."

BL Poster: "Why is Amaro doing stuff?"

awh - Yup. I bet season ticket renewals have fallen off a cliff this year and that this team is looking to ratchet down their payroll again this offseason to reflect their anticipated shortfall in gate revenues.

Salisbury was on 610 this morning saying the Phils are now looking for roster flexibility with multiple names in play. Basically it is code for salary reduction.

Operational and strategical ineptitude of this organization is still pretty astounding. Phils either should have double-downed this offseason no 13 and gone for broke or just gutted it while rebuilding.

Now they are stuck with a bloated roster full of aging veterans and the Chooch signing looks even more puzzling in retrospect. All the hallmarks of an organization that has almost no overall coherent strategy long-term or even for the upcoming season.

At least the '07-'11 will be some fond memories during what likes will increasingly be a pretty lean couple of years at least.

Unless Middleton and Betz are involved in the next Bernie Madoff type scam, there doesnt seem much point to trading your two top pitchers for pure salary relief (as seems implied in the rumors released)

Just sayin'.

Seems like BS to me...unless Rube really is as stupid as we joke about from time to time.


Comcast may have told them that they won't commit the billions it will take without them selling the team - or a large chunk of it to Comcast.

Over at TGP they reported that a new TV deal was imminent and it hasn't transpired (or been announced).

The key to the Hamels and Lee trade rumor is that they've said they won't eat any salary.

That means they know they'll get crap talent in return.

As I posted above - it's about the money.

Either tix sales stink and they're doing a major payroll trim because Amaro is under a mandate, something bigger is up (like a sale of the franchise), or the worst case scenario... the one we've all been afraid of...

they don't have a clue as to what they are doing.

However incompetent and dysfunctional we perceive the front office to be, I am fairly confident it is worse than we know, and in a few years we will read articles that will horrify us. And yes, I'm including Montgomery and ownership, because as much as I dislike Rube, I don't think it's entirely on him.

It would be the best thing for the Phillies to trade both Hammels and Lee NOW. Blow this effin team up NOW instead of wasting another long season with lousy old players. Get it done Rube


They still have the new national tv money regardless of that...and that alone should be enough for them to pay for their current payroll given their other revenue sources.

I actually am not particularly concerned with rumors of everyone being on the table. Everyone *should* be on the table for the right price.

But that's the rub. I don't think Amaro will make shrewd deals, and I do worry that a fair bit of this is payroll-driven, which is a legitimate concern, but which will only serve to screw us long-term if that takes precedence over talent concerns.

"The only point to trading Hamels and/or Lee is to get a *ton* of talent in return. And to do that, you should be willing to eat some of the money."


"So... like any Wharton guy, Montgomery's first reaction is probably to cut the budget - not improve the product."

Ouch. When you cut us, do we not bleed?

MG, I don't often agree, but on this one you may be correct.

Trade Hamels? I don't think they realize how unpopular that will be. My wife's favorite Phillie. She would refuse to go to a game again if they trade him.

NEPP - Probably because they need to move a meaningful salary for next year and won't eat money in the process because it defeats the original purpose of the transaction.

They can't move Papelbon without eating a decent portion of his salary. Howard is unmovable. JRoll has a full no-trade clause. Utley is a special case and I am sure would provoke a ton of angst among the fan base if he was now moved after they made such a big deal of resigning him.

Basically, it seems like the organizational strategy really was the lack of one. It was to resign the core veterans & squeeze every ounce of juice from them, don't make any long-term or large-dollar commitments in FA, put a competitive enough team out there to prevent too much of a decline, and wait until the new local TV deal was resigned to figure things out.

Team wasn't competitive in '11, uncompetitive to putrid at times in '12, and is on track this year to maybe hit .500 if things break right and to win less 70 games if they have some injuries again.

gobay, excellent questions about Tanaka.

I have been following it closely, and right now I say it's 50-50 he gets posted.

What do you think the odds are?

At least we'll be able to get $10 Hamels and Lee jerseys at TJ Maxx, so there's that.

I'm with Jack.
No organization can be so consistently putrid without there being massive problems with ownership and management. Since the Giles gang took over this organization has been atrocious. They inherited a powerhouse and let it dissipate into 20 plus years of stink. Then they hired the only 2 smart baseball people they've ever hired. Gillick and Arbuckle. They let one retire and were too stupid to hire the other to replace him. They were the 2 people and only 2 people responsible for 07-11 happening.

MG, I think you meant '12 and '13 in your 10:08 post.

That isn't just a Wharton MBA. Almost all CFOs initial reaction is to cut SG&A costs first and foremost to improve short-term operating margins over the next few quarters.

Hell, just look at what all large publicly-traded US companies have done since '08 on their SG&A costs. If labor isn't organized (and in the private sector in the US is at it lowest point since the 20s) and they have at-will employer laws, they get taken out to the field and take 2 to the back of the head.

It is basically a zero-sum strategy though.

awh: there is also the possibility that this is all winter meeting bluster.

And the not eating money thing is a negotiating tactic most likely. I doubt that would be symptomatic of any thought process.

The important thing to remember is we fielded one of the worst teams in baseball last year, backed by one of the worst farm systems. There's not a whole lot more damage that can be done, and the next turn around isn't happening until the next FO flush.

If you want to see a trainwreck, google how Sears has been run since it was taken over by Edward Lampert...absolute and utter trainwreck for those reasons mentioned above.

@MG, but the Phillies aren't a publicly traded company beholden to Mr. Market. They can take a long term view.

TTI - How is that a negotiating tactic? It boxes them into a corner and handicaps there flexibility right off the bat.

We'll have to wait and see but now the question is how desperate the Phils get to dump a salary and the additional starter/veteran reliever they pick up.

Offered a 2 yr/$15M deal to Feldman and 1 yr deal with a lower base and incentives to Vogelsong. Seems like they will sign another starter but see what it will be a short-term deal at less than $8 AAV.

Re: Tanaka
I feel like he does get posted, if he really wants to go to MLB this year. It looks like Japanese teams have a track record of respecting a player's wishes when it comes to pursuing a career in the US.
Since, Ichiro there really haven't been any stories of guys wishing they would be posted and then it never happening. The NPB appears to really honor the dream of MLB success and in a way it helps their league. Even non-baseball fans follow Ichiro and Darvish from afar and I think that helps boost MPB interest in a way.
The hold up could be the new system, which really sticks it to Japanese teams. Maybe now that they can't get $50 mil they won't be as quick to post the elite players in their prime. Then again, what's $50 mil to Rakuten whose baseball team is probably a money loser for a multi-billion dollar company?
My opinion is that Tanaka will be posted either this year or next. If he isn't this year, it will be because NPB owners want to make a statement. But it will happen.

One of the annoying things about the Phillies' FO is that they live in the past and don't seem to realize that a player's value is diminished in trade when he has a big contract like Lee and Hamels.

I am opposed to trading Hamels, but I would be on board with a Lee trade provided they get a good return. To get a good return, the Phils need to eat a significant chunk of what will be the remaining three years of Lee's contract.

If the Phils don't eat any money, they will receive dreck, although young dreck.

All I could thing about last night at the gym and seeing clips of Halladay's retirement is how he and this team simply haven't been the same after Game 5 of the '11 NLDS. Likely going to be the high water mark for a while to come too.

Halladay never again had the same caliber stuff or velocity as he did that game, Howard has been a mess, and the core is aging & injury-ridden with little/no help the last 2 seasons.

If they trade Lee now in a salary dump, it just affirms how they even went into this offseason with no coherent plan except sign a couple of mid-tier/lousy veterans to moderate contracts.

It makes the Chooch signing look that much more foolish in retrospect.

I'm happy to hear RAJ isn't just sipping margaritas and enjoying the scenery. I have no problem with making guys available - Dom, Lee, Hamels, or anyone else. The team is terrible and needs to find a way to improve, so nothing should be off the table. The question is what he gets in return.

I assume that if they trade Brown, they're trying to add a CF and move Revere to left. Arizona, which could really use a lefty power bat on an OF corner, seems like an obvious fit unless the Phils insist on bundling Papelbon with Brown.

I also wouldn't be surprised if, by putting all these guys on the market, RAJ is trying once again to angle for Giancarlo Stanton. Stanton hits arbitration for the first time this year and could get $5-6M, which will then escalate quickly over the next two seasons. If Miami doesn't plan to sign him long-term, now's the time to move him. I could see RAJ trying to gather prospects by trading Lee or Hamels, then shipping those prospects (and probably one or two of our own top guys) to Miami along with Brown for Stanton.

MG: It is always amazing to me how you selectively believe what comes out of Amaro's mouth.

It doesn't hurt their flexibility or negotiating with a team. And furthermore, that could absolutely not be the case, and if it is it could be to see who is serious about trading for those guys.

"Hell, just look at what all large publicly-traded US companies have done since '08 on their SG&A costs. If labor isn't organized (and in the private sector in the US is at it lowest point since the 20s) and they have at-will employer laws, they get taken out to the field and take 2 to the back of the head.

It is basically a zero-sum strategy though."

MG, I agree, and it's foolish and shortsighted by these corporations.

We will have euro-styles labor laws here within a few years, because the voters will install politicians who will put in protections.

It's the next natural reaction.

Jon Heyman via Twitter:

1 possible deal on table would send cahill and skaggs to #LAAngels for trumbo

— Jon Heyman (@JonHeymanCBS) December 10, 2013

If the D'Backs aren't laughing and hanging up the phone on that price, the Phils absolutely need to be dangling Brown, who is a better baseball player than Trumbo.

Even getting just Skaggs for Trumbo would be a smart deal for the Angels to make.

***It's the next natural reaction***

That assumes a logical electorate...we dont have that. In lots of cases, you simply have a movement towards a type of fascism where big businesses essentially run roughshod over the gov't and pull the strings on everything. This is just as common as the reaction you mentioned toward greater controls.

And baseball, something something (see, totally on topic)

Jack - 100% agree. Trumbo flat-out isn't that good, especially if he has to play the outfield.

Then there's this, from Joel Sherman of the NY Daily News:

#Diamondbacks determined to leave Meetings with Choo or Trumbo. Hear price for Choo is going to be about Crawford: 7-$142M #Rangers also in

— Joel Sherman (@Joelsherman1) December 10, 2013

Damn, that's a lot of money and years for Choo.

I wonder if this is also about gauging the value of the marquee names on their roster in the event that they stink it up out of the gate and start moving pieces in june/july. Maybe they want to know now what is possible and build some frameworks for moving guys later in the summer in the likelihood that they are out of contention by then (and competing clubs might be more able to handle Lee's contract if they know they're in a pennant race and only have 1.5 seasons and the buyout left--though the Phils might be sharing that buyout, which is 10 million IIRC...).

I would be surprised if they traded either right now. That would make no sense after tying up 40 million in Chooch and Byrd. Unless there were then several more surprising moves to reload shortly after, which feels like a real stretch.

So the Diamondbacks Choo Choo Choose him?

Phillyrhetoric is probably right when he says this: "I wonder if this is also about gauging the value of the marquee names on their roster in the event that they stink it up out of the gate and start moving pieces in june/july. Maybe they want to know now what is possible and build some frameworks for moving guys later in the summer in the likelihood that they are out of contention by then.."

But no IT HAS TO BE....this team has got no plan...they are ruining their negotiating.....they have no money and COMCAST won't give them they deal. OMG Head for zee heels.

Shopping Lee makes a ton of sense and I hope that part is true.

Shopping Hamels makes no sense on any level, and I can't imagine that part is any more than just posturing.

Watching Hamels and Lee pitch a gem, only to lose because our offense couldn't muster a few runs and/or our bullpen couldn't keep the opposing team from scoring was frustrating.

It's going to be even more depressing to watch the team if we lose Hamels and Lee, however.

I don't understand why they won't eat salary if it gets them a better return. Maybe it's just posturing. Or maybe the plan all along was to spend big as long as there was a chance of going to the postseason, then to cut payroll once the window had closed. I have to admit that there's not much point, beyond the pleasure of watching the aces pitch, to have top-tier pitchers on a team that loses more than half its games.

Regardless, I find it a depressing bit of news.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 3m
Creativity is required with 73 wins, a $160 million payroll and aging roster. Context for Lee, Hamels rumors:

Everybody should be on the market every year. That's what a good GM does. So, maybe this is Rube trying to be a smart GM. Problem is, you don't tie up a bunch of older players, then put your two best players on the block, and that's what Lee and Hamels are, the two best players on the team.

These names, hopefully, were floated early in the process and have just now come out. But if that's the case, then the Chooch signing in particular makes no sense.

If Rube can get top, major league ready prospects for Hamels and Lee, then he sort of has to do it. But does anyone really trust Rube to make the talent evaluations to do this?

TTI - I would bet my scenario (didn't anticipate quite the fall in season ticket renewals and now are scrambling to deal with the anticipated revenue gap by moving a meaningful salary) is the likely one.

This is a great piece about Halladay and his family.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 4m
The night before Roy Halladay retired, he celebrated a game-winning hit with his son. A burden lifted:

I want to state again. I have no problem with all moves being on the table.

What I do have a problem with is not seeing ahead. A year and a half ago, in July 2012, it seemed fairly obvious to many of us that you had a declining and aging team with a rising payroll and no farm system. Rather than get creative then, when you had a chance to limit the pain, they decided to double down on it. And now here we are and it's like for the very first time it's occurring to Rube that changes need to be made, now that it's too late. The pain is going to be real and it's going to be long, and while it was always inevitable that some pain would occur, the complete lack of foresight as to what was coming has made it worse.

For example, if you're going to deal Cliff Lee, you should have done it a year ago, or at least at the trade deadline this year. You've now waited long enough that his value has declined more than it needed to, and you're going to eat money and not get as good prospects back.

Jayson Stark‏@jaysonst

Team that talked to #Phillies reports only way they'd trade Lee/Hamels is in "win-win" scenario. Take none of $. Get huge return. Unlikely

THey should be shopping everyone, but as Jack said, its pathetic to bypass the opportunity to trade these guys earlier, or even re-sign Utley, if you're going to end up doing it anyway.

Jack: I agree with your general premise about RAJ's complete lack of foresight. But I don't really see how Lee's value has declined since last year. If anything, it may have actually increased since his performance hasn't declined at all & there's one less year left on his gigantic contract.

I don't really see why Lee & Hamels are being mentioned together in these trade rumors, as if they're somehow equivalent pieces. Trading a 35-year old elite pitcher would make good sense if they could get a huge haul of prospect or young players. Trading a 30-year old elite pitcher would make no sense at all.

BAP: He's a year older, and while there's on less year left on his deal, it's one less *good* year, while the bad years at the end are still there.

If you believe that Lee's age 34-season where he was a 7-WAR pitcher provided surplus value over his salary (and it most definitely did, and you could have reasonably expected it to), then you would rather have him at 4/102.5 for his 34-37 years with the vesting option, then 3/77.5 for his 35-37 years with the vesting option.

Does that make sense? If any year of Lee's contract was most likely to provide surplus value, it was last year's. Therefore, he was more valuable before last year than he is now.

Agree with BAP. They've lost nothing by keeping Lee and putting him on the market this offseason. However, there is no team that needs pitching that badly and has the money to eat that salary, and has the prospects necessary to make it a "win win."

Rube has once again priced himself out of the market. Howard, Lee, Papelbon all are paid either at their actual value (Lee) or way above their actual value, so what GM in his right mind is going to give up something of value for any of them if the Phillies won't eat salary?

And what were these creative moves you speak of they could have done in 2012 Jack?

"I have to admit that there's not much point, beyond the pleasure of watching the aces pitch, to have top-tier pitchers on a team that loses more than half its games."


Why go to the ballpark at all if they're going to run some stiff out there?

"TTI - I would bet my scenario (didn't anticipate quite the fall in season ticket renewals and now are scrambling to deal with the anticipated revenue gap by moving a meaningful salary) is the likely one."


"For example, if you're going to deal Cliff Lee, you should have done it a year ago, or at least at the trade deadline this year."

Jack, one also needs to question why they didn't trade Hamels, or, at least let him walk and get the draft pick.

awh: I'm ok with the Hamels deal. I think if you had been smart back then, you could have made some moves to avoid a full rebuild. And since Hamels is a very good pitcher on a market deal, he has value in helping you compete.

Now, of course, the Hamels deal looks irrelevant because we're going to suck for the next 3-5 years no matter what. But it didn't have to be that way. If you'd never signed Papelbon, traded Lee for a contributing young player and a top prospect (in theory), made a couple better value signings than the ridiculous Delmon Young and Michael Young decisions, you could have fielded a somewhat competitive team and maintained flexibility for the future, and things would look a whole lot better.

We were always going to be saddled with the Howard deal, of course, but that's why you have to do some hard things like deal Lee. But since you did none of them, now you're stuck in the worst-case scenario.

I don't have a problem with the idea of gauging interest in any player on the roster.

I do have a problem with what seems to be the constant bouncing back and forth between "win now" and "build for the future." The moves that have been done and are (supposedly) currently being contemplated do not make any cohesive sense together. That is really disturbing.

"'re stuck in the worst-case scenario"

Jack, to be fair, there are other scenarios that are "worst case".

I'd hate to be a fan of the Astros, Mariners or Marlins right now. They are in much worse shape than the Phillies, despite the cosmetics of signing Cano, or the Astros farm system (which may not pan out).

And the Marlins have the worst owner in professional sports.

awh: I agree on the Marlins and Mariners.

Believe it or not, I think the Astros are in a better position than the Phillies are currently. I think they have smarter management, basically. And if history is any indication, they have financial wherewithal to use once they get to a point where they need it.

I will say also that the idea of expecting a "massive return" while simultaneously refusing to eat any money makes any deal for Lee or Hamels virtually impossible. So I don't think we really have to worry about them being shipped out of town...but if they were to eat dollars they probably could bring back a very good haul. And that might be worth considering, if this team hadn't already made several moves that clearly indicate they aren't interested in a re-build.

ESPN's Keith Law reports (via Twitter) that the Mark Trumbo talks between the Diamondbacks and Angels have expanded to include the White Sox, with a potential framework sending Adam Eaton to Chicago and Hector Santiago and Tyler Skaggs to the Angels.

Be a great pull for Angels.

@iceman you are 100% correct about Lee. He should be shopped before his value takes a hit and he has little value due to the contract.

I cannot understand what the DBacks are doing, giving up that much for Trumbo.

That'd be a ridiculous haul for a 28 year old DH with a career sub.300 OBP.

Just ridiculous.

Jack, maybe their evaluation of Trumbo is greater than others, and maybe their opinion of their own pitchers is lesser?

"If any year of Lee's contract was most likely to provide surplus value, it was last year's. Therefore, he was more valuable before last year than he is now."

That argument is too abstract for me. Lee is obviously not going to remain elite forever so I guess you're right that the team which trades for him today would be getting one less elite season than the team which would have traded for him last year. But that's offset by the fact that they'd also be taking on one less year of risk. I mean, at this point last year, a would-be Lee suitor could have said, "Sure, he had another good year but he's 34 and his numbers started to slip a little last year, and four more years at $25+M per year is a huge commitment." Now it's 3 years at $25+M per year, and he has completely put to rest any idea that he was starting to slip.

I was in favor of shopping Lee at the trade deadline because I thought he could get a huge haul and, if you hang onto him, there's a risk that he could decline or get injured. But so far, that hasn't happened. So the Phillies are no worse off for having held onto him.

Jack, yeah, but the Astros are in a lawsuit with Comcast over CSN Houston and their payments. Just a lot of crap going on there right now. I didn't post everything wrong with other franchises because I wanted to keep it short.

CSN Houston is owned by the Astros (at least 2/3 of it anyway)...are the Astros basically suing themselves there as part of the bankruptcy proceedings? Does Comcast pay them in addition to what the local channel that they own pays them?

Totally confused on how that works to be honest.

BAP: They're taking on one less year of risk, except the year that's gone was the single-least risky year of all of them, and the one most likely to provide surplus value. Doesn't that make sense?

And his numbers didn't really slip in 2012. In fact, he had the second best K/BB ratio of his entire career (and that's saying something, since he has the 6th best K/BB ratio for a career in MLB history).

Of course you have to make some theoretical assumptions. But a logical assumption is that his age 34 year was going to be very good, and each year after that would be somewhat less so. That may or may not work out, but it's the kind of model you have to rely on to make a decision with imperfect information. Given those assumptions, having him for 4/100 with his 34-37 seasons is more valuable than 3/75 with his 35-37 seasons.

Still waiting on your creative moves Jack from 2012.

On Lee and Hamels:

I can see th epoint of "posting" them, but to me it makes little sense to trade either one of them.

For instance, if they traded both of them, without eating any salary, they are unlikely to get back players that will be anywhere near as good as are Hamels and Lee (Hamlee), and are unlikely to add as much to the win column over the next 3-5 season as will Hamlee.

Also, if they DO trade them, ticket sales will take a hit - especially single game sales - resulting in a further decline in revenue, which might make operating even more difficult for them.

Lastly, it would a huge "F8ck you!" to the fan base.

Huge, and with this ownership groups track record since acquiring the team, it's not likely something that will be soon forgotten. Mere winning would be unlikely to bring good ol' days of sellouts back to the Zen.

Been awhile since I posted, but always checking in and reading mostly intelligent posts by the Phaithphul.

What I don't think the Phillies "hierarchy" understands about us is our resiliency. By that I mean that I believe we are willing to take a short-term hit for longer-term sustainability. For example, look at the Sixers. They have deep-sixed (pun intended) the short-sighted "stay-in-the-hunt" philosophy of the past regime in favor of positioning themselves for sustained success with clearing cap space and stockpiling draft choices.

With that said, the exact model cannot be followed by a baseball team, because there is no salary cap and draft choices cannot be accumulated, but they can get younger through judicious trades and they can sign free agents, as well. Not the Arroyos, but the younger ones who can fill positional needs and add depth.

So, yes, I am on board for everyone on the 40-man roster being on the trading table. It can't be any worse than the middling roster that is presently assembled.

Ahh, Captain Hindsight is back adding nothing.

If that three-team deal is seriously close to going down, Rube needs to get on the phone and mess it up--offer Brown to the D-Backs for either Cahill or Skaggs as a less costly alternative to giving up Eaton and Skaggs or signing Choo. Then sign Madson and Sizemore (or Morse) on an incentive-laden value-rebuild deal, and he might have a team that (if everything breaks right) could actually contend for a wild card.


Good old Phillies management. Refusing to eat any money of contracts, even if it would net them a much better Prospect. These are the types of Short-sighted decisions I've missed when we were winning.

I think Amaro is blowing smoke to cover the real negotiations. No way they're seriously trying to move all of Lee, Hamels, Brown and Papelbon.

But with this many rumors, you have to think something is going on. Lee would make the most sense, but expecting Amaro to make the logical move hasn't done well lately.

awh: Learn from you I guess.

But it is a legitimate question. People on here complain about moves all the time yet they never seem to have any ideas. It's BS spewing coming from usual suspects.

Jack said we could have gotten creative in 2012. Let's hear the moves. Otherwise just stop posting idiotic ramblings.

Same goes for you too.

Captain Hindsight provides no foresight.

Maybe he's a foreskin.

Been a lurker for a while now, but appreciating the insights from the regulars. awh's post of 12:11 was a great summary, as was gbrettfan at 10:51.

I get the economics but dread the idea of watching next year without seeing Hamels and Lee every few days.

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EST. 2005

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