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Tuesday, December 17, 2013


Thank the good lord that they have all that depth at shortstop though.

Amaro: "When we rebuild, it's going to be LEGEN....wait for it, wait for it....DARY!"

Hope when the rebuilding starts it is don't by someone who knows what they are doing. Pat Gillick come home......

Sorry...who knows what they are doing.

Corey, need another reliever? Well, if the Doom and Gloom Club is correct, they really don't, because the Phillies aren't going to be competitive in2014 anyway.

That said, as I see it, the Phillies have at least 3 tiers of relievers, not ranked in any specific order within the tier

Tier 1 - Proven MLB pitchers (sustained success):

Adams - though health wise he could be finished

Tier 2 - Semi-proven MLB pitchers (periodic success):

De Fratus
Stutes - (health issues)

Tier 3 - who knows what to expect when they take the hill:


Wild cards:

MAG, if not slotted to rotation (health issues)
Morgan - ditto, if he's used as a reliever at the MLB level (health issues)

So, that 16 pitchers who could potentially see time on the mound as relievers at the Zen in 2014. On paper, anyway, that seems like a lot of depth, but based on the tier in which they reside - which is an indication of their past reliability - if the Phillies want to compete in 2014, then you'd be correct and they probably need to add another arm.

OTOH, if they're not competing, it's a waste of money as they'd probably be better off seeing what they have in the younger arms and getting those guys experience.

Bob, Gillick traded away Gio Gonzalez and Gain Floyd for Freddy Garcia.

That might be the worst Phillies trade since the Sandberg/Bowa trade in the early 80's.

He's had his failures too.

I'd prefer to see someone from outside the organization, but they won't do that, IMHO.

Also, in looking at the Phillies 40-man, someone has to be dropped when they add Faunandez:

Since I've been coming to Beerleaguer, the Doom and Gloom Club is batting about .500 unfortunately.

So to recap the Rollins option from the last thread: MG says the fourth year option is guaranteed numerous times. Multiple scenarios are presented where it is possible he does not attain the option. The conclusion reached is that the option is guaranteed.

Has the definition of 'guaranteed' or 'option' changed?

Not that this is really news to anyone, but of the top 10 teams in payroll in 2013, only 3 made the playoffs. Of the bottom 10 in payroll, 4 made the playoffs.

"I'd prefer to see someone from outside the organization, but they won't do that, IMHO."

Depends. If the Phillies lose 90+ games and attendance drops like a rock, I would think that ownership will be under pressure to can RAJ and hire an outsider. They did it when they hired Gillick, and the team is in far worse shape now than it was when they hired Gillick.

Gillick is a Hall of Fame GM for a good reason, but the ability to manage a rebuild is not one of them.

Gillick was famously good at taking teams from being average to being a championship contender, and then moving on before a rebuild was necessary.

The Phillies need someone young and with fresh ideas.

The could get babe Ruth and mo. Still a shitty team.

Pfft. Who needs that Ruth guy? We've got Babe Ruf! (And his sidekick, Sancho Asche, who reminds of the perils of dreaming the impossible dream.)

Speaking of LHB bench bats, Jason Kubel signed an MiLB deal today with the Twins. This is one of the few times this off-season I think genuinely constitutes a missed opportunity. While absolutely atrocious in 2013, he's also just one year removed from a .253/.327/.506 (120 OPS+) season. I'd actually crossed Kubel off my list of potential bench bats, as I was certain someone would offer him a guaranteed MLB deal in the $1.5-2MM range, which well beyond what the Phils are looking to spend for someone with his utter lack of non-HR-hitting baseball skills.

Is Alex Castellanos still in DFA limbo? We need a guy who can hit RHP, after all, and he's got reverse splits. Whether he actually is LHB is optional. (Though there's so much noise in his AAA numbers they're not indicative of much beyond an ability to put up gaudy numbers in New Mexico.)

As passe as it sounds, considering that RAJ (or whomever is calling the shots) is positioning the team to a full on rebuild in about 2 years or so via short term contracts to veteran players, the next GM actually needs to be of the SABR metric/Moneyball type of mindset. At the very least he needs to be able to understand, appreciate, and make business decisions based off of data.

RAJ hasn't exactly stocked this system with a bunch of prospects where we can lean on scouting and development. With the money coming off of the books, the next GM should be tasked with building a team that is going to be able to predict which younger players to invest in (via draft, trade, etc.). It would take a lot longer than some here will be able to tolerate, but it would be more sustainable than the 'rebuild through FA' dynamic that both Gillick and RAJ (and most of the older FO types that lean on scouting, honestly) seem to embrace, especially due to the extremely different dynamic of Free Agency in and of itself, as we've discussed here quite a bit (typically now just older players on a decline who you're paying for past performance, malcontents and reclamation projects).

Though it's worth noting that, if Kubel does make the Twins' roster, he's in-line for $2MM of base pay. Which is about where he'd be if the Phils had signed him as the LHB bench bat. So it's probably a wash.

MLBTR is also reported that the Red Sox has signed Shunsuke Watanabe to an MiLB deal. So much for the hope of seeing one of the world's few true submariners in bloodstripes.

Jason Knapp, remember him?, is attempting a comeback:

Juums, I mentioned Kubel a few threads ago. I got "zer0" reaction.

Iceman, MG will never admit he's made an error.

I read the exchange. His twisted reasoning was hysterical.

NEPP, Knapp? Why knot?

Kubel's name's come up a few times, but it's never generated much in the way of noise around here. As we've already got one thumper who's not really a corner OF but who's listed as one on the depth chart. I'd've never suggested Kubel on an MiLB deal, because I thought it was a foregone conclusion in this FA OF market that somebody would give him an MLB-guaranteed deal to do what Laynce Nix did here for two seasons. (Well, was supposed to do, at any rate.)

We'll see how it plays out for the Twins. Can't help but wonder if their willingness to take a flyer on him was due to the sizable amount of time he spent with them.

I prefer PPP and antiwhite Will posse over Doom and Gloom.

Rusney Castillo successfully defected from Cuba today, whereabouts currently unknown.

Was the best CF in Cuba after Cespedes and Leonys Martin left. RH 26yr old with plus speed and base stealing ability. Said to be good enough to stick in CF in the majors, makes a lot of line drive contact with gap power.

"Rusney Castillo successfully defected from Cuba today, whereabouts currently unknown."

I'm all for signing him but I would probably insist on putting a clause in the contract that gives us some salary relief if his whereabouts are never discovered.

the 'word' is he's in the DR.

They should definitely take a look at Rusney Castillo...that's the area where they can still get some talent and rebuild quicker than through the draft.

Baseball America: [Rusney] Castillo has also played some second and third base, so his versatility could be a draw for some teams. He’s an aggressive, high-energy player, though some teams see him as a fourth outfielder.

Rube has already reportedly offered him a 20 year, $775 million deal.

Oh my god "20 year, $775 million deal" I'm dying right now.

I heard we're trading Lee to Pittsburgh for an unnamed middle infielder/outfielder. Things are looking up!

MLBTR is also reported that the Red Sox has signed Shunsuke Watanabe to an MiLB deal. So much for the hope of seeing one of the world's few true submariners in bloodstripes.

I really wanted this guy, and a MiLB deal is a steal! Didn't know about that cuban but what happened to the Catcher Bello?

Let's be clear on what Watanabe is: He's a 37 year-old pitcher with a career 4.8 K/9 and whose "fastball" tops out in the high-70s. Who, also, has never thrown an inning in the U.S. Now, NPB is arguably the strongest international league out there, and it's somewhere between MLB and AAA in terms of its talent level. But Watanabe's still an old pitcher with horrendous stuff who gets by due to an incredibly unique delivery and good control of what he did have.

There's a lot of risk there: An MiLB contract was probably what he was most likely to get, so it's not like he's a massive bargain. Doesn't mean that I didn't want him for the Phils, if only for the entertainment value.

Rusney Castillo? After Fausto Carmona, I'd be a little leary of foreign ballplayers with funny sounding names.

Rusney Castillo? Rube will not consider signing him unless he can play 2B, 3B and backup catcher as well as CF.

Just looked the guy up. Turns out Castillo has, indeed, played some 2B and 3B, so he fits Rube's "versatility" thing. Now if his OBP is low enough and he swings at bad pitches often enough, he just might be our next signing.

Doesn't matter what they need. It's a matter of what they're willing to pay for, which isn't much. The FO no longer cares about winning (if it ever did). They know they're going to take another attendance hit next season, and they don't care about that either. They know a new TV deal is coming, so they're saying "the hell with it". They'll be lining their pockets anyway.

I am OK with Chavez/Colvin and Madson, however the Phils will still need another starter if they have so many question marks around MAG.

"The FO no longer cares about winning (if it ever did)". I never criticized a poster since I've began reading/ writing on this site, but that is a ridiculous statement. EVER? That includes 2007-2011? DPat, if you mean the current ownership/regime, I concur, but absolutes like that are false prima facie.

Is Ed Wade considered an outsider yet?
I see him coming back to the mix, replacing Amaro when the team struggles to get 70 wins this year.

Hope Wheels is back this year!!!! :)

Is Rube's job protected if he claims he had a substance abuse problem at the end of the 2014 season?

It would explain a lot...

"Since I've been coming to Beerleaguer, the Doom and Gloom Club is batting about .500 unfortunately."

Cyclic, you must be relatively new. I've been here since after the season in 2006.

2007 - Doom and Gloom Club = WRONG
2008 - Doom and Gloom Club = WRONG, WFC wrong
2009 - Doom and Gloom Club = WRONG
2010 - Doom and Gloom Club = WRONG
2011 - Doom and Gloom Club = WRONG
2012 - Doom and Gloom Club = correct
2013 - Doom and Gloom Club = correct

Their 2 for 7 in the last 7 years. I guess in baseball they'd be OK as long as that's their BA, but if it's their OBP or SLG then they suck as prognosticators.

And that's not even reviewing the thousands of "season = over" posts in the middle of threads, some every time the Phils made an error or fell behind in an important game.

2007 and 2008 were magical Septembers at BL, where the Doom and Gloom Club were constantly whining and the rational people would tell them to be patient.

In the end, no team can win the division every year. So sooner or later people like that are correct, but they don't have a very good collective track record around these parts.

Maybe someday they'll be right more than they've been wrong, but they've got a ways to go.

Hey Monty, Ed Wade and the team he built were creatures created by Mike Arbuckle's drafts.

How well have the Phillies drafted since then?

No thanks to Ed coming back, because he blew it in Houston, and the Phillies scouting and player development department seems to have taken a couple of steps back the last few years.

Rube has already reportedly offered him a 20 year, $775 million deal."

... With an option for a 21st year or a 10 million dollar buyout.

DPat, with the lux tax threshold (did you see the Yankees just paid $28MM?) (the article also details the total calc of what each team spent) any excess revenue was going to go into the owners pockets anyway.

That doesn't bother me because I am on record here numerous times stating that I don't care how much money they make (or if they make any money at all) or how much the players make.

But will they plow some of that money back into player development to upgrade the minor league system and coaches, pay their scouts more so they get better people (because right now they don't seem to be very good despite Proefrock's assertions to the contrary), upgrade the minor league facilities, increase Sal Agostinelli's budget and staff and outbid other teams for international talent, actually seriously TRY to build an analytics department to assist in their player evaluation? And maybe, just maybe, they might actually be PROGRESSIVE and try something new like the biomechanics that the Mets are trying - then that would be great.

But they are probably too tied to the old ways of doing things - too ossified - and what I just typed is probably a bit of a pipedream.

In case you want to get warm in March:

You go back and look and for a doom and gloom site the Phils were predicted to make the playoffs an awful lot.

"Has the definition of 'guaranteed' or 'option' changed?"

Posted by: Iceman

It just might: since the definition of "literal" has changed, I'd say anything is possible...

Looks like Phillipe Aumont's blog is finally up and running

If JRoll doesn't get hurt, the option will vest. JRoll hasn't gotten to 434 PAs ONCE in his career (2010). Iceman is just being a dope about this point.

offtopic, but i hate the rule where teams are the ones saving $$ when a player is suspended. No wonder PED users are signing in FA for solid $$ - if they get caught again, the team doesn't lose a dime. Such a stupid concept.

Forfeited pay from PED suspensions should go anywhere but back into the team's pockets.

If you want to stop PED use, the players should get to keep their earnings when on a PED suspension. You'd see a massive decrease in salaries to guys suspected of or previously convicted of PED use and guys would see less benefit in doing it as it would kill their earning power.

Or give it all to the Make a Wish Foundation or Cancer Research or the NEPP Retirement Fund (for the children)...

They should still take it away from the player, and put it into some player fund that only players who have never tested positive can benefit from.

yea or a worthy charity cause, even better.

Tyler Colvin? He with career OBP of .289? No thanks. Overbay maybe, but he had a pretty awful year last year, OPS .688 (2012 OPS .727 and 2011 .840, so I suppose he could bounce back).

Wilson Betemit didn't play much last year (only 10 PA)but has proven he can hit RHP. He is a switch hitter.

Chris Dickerson hasn't seen a lot of MLB action in any one particular season, and doesn't have a lot oif pop, but he can play CF. At this point he is about replacement level, but perhaps with some more at bats he could get back to that .789 OPS he showed early on with Cincinnati.

Grady Sizemore hasn't played in two years and hasn't played a full season since 2008, but would like to see what he has left in the tank. Also can presumably still play CF.

Brennan Boesch was pretty solid in 2010 and 2011 as a regular, before a down year in 2012 and getting pushed out of Detroit by Torii Hunter.

It has been insinuated on BL that I am racist for my criticism of Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard and Domonic Brown while, at the same time, I've been called "Antiwhite Will" for my criticism of the state of Arizona and those who presume that all Cuban/LatAm ballplayers automatically lie about their age.

It's this kind of comedy that keeps me coming back.

MG: You are right that Rollins has never had less than 434 PA's except for one time in his career.

However, you are wrong AND HAVE BEEN from the start in that it was not a guaranteed year.

Now can we stop and move on.

MG, again, you're being laughable. Keep it up, it's amusing.

Here, I'll help you:

You just weakened your own argument by pointing out that in one season JRoll DID NOT get to 434 PA.

And it was because of injury and was 4 seasons ago.

You have been one of the chief proponents here about age related decline and age related susceptibility to injury, so using your argument it stands to reason that 2014 Rollins will be more susceptible to injury than 2010 Rollins.

So, either you were correct then, and there is NO "guarantee" that Rollins gets there, or your correct now, and 2014 Rollins is "guaranteed" to get to 434 PA and thus have his option vest - despite past evidence to the contrary that you yourself pointed out.

Which is it?

Buh-bye, Sebastian Valle. DFA to make room for Roberto F. Carmona-Hernandez.

The title of the article "The Phils need a reliever and bench lefty" is pretty funny. The Phils need a lot of things they're not going to get, all of which are far more important than a bench bat and reclamation project reliever.

The Phils are essentially playing the same same squad that won 73 games last year. Yea they added Marlon Byrd and a couple of stiffs in Hernandez and Lincoln, but when a 36 year old Marlon Byrd (coming off a career year) is your key free agent acquisition, you've already run up the white flag. The Phils are praying for better health from an aging core that's got a lengthy injury history and declining numbers when healthy. That's not a strategy.

Considering their Pythagorean W-L was actually 7 games under 73 wins last year, I see that as the ceiling this year.

Not who's gonna strike out 200 times and walk 3 times in a full season for us in AA?!?

Jroll could break every extremity on his body and still be a Phillie in 2015. He holds a $5M player option.

Interesting. Pap was scheduled for a live interview on MLBN this morning. But he bailed, was a no-show.

bonehead: Obama took his guns, so he couldn't risk it.

awh & TTI - They essentially set it up as a guaranteed year.

So what are the odds if you were doing a risk-based decision analysis of JRoll not crossing that PA vesting threshold this year due to injury/etc? Maybe 10%? Hell even in '10 he came really close to 434 PAs.

You going to argue about something has an extreme unlikely probability?

"You just weakened your own argument by pointing out that in one season JRoll DID NOT get to 434 PA.

And it was because of injury and was 4 seasons ago."

So once in 13 seasons as a starter JRoll didn't get 434 PAs and even during that season he came within 40 PAs.

Go drink some egg nog and make a more coherent point.

Lorecore: Yeah, but it's a lot easier to cut and run on a $5MM contract than an $11MM one.

Especially if you can stash him on the 60-day DL for the whole season.

in re: Valle, I imagine he'll pass through waivers fairly handily. Average D, pisspoor O? Man, who wouldn't move heaven and earth to acquire that?

Phillibuster: Sounds like the type of player r00b loves! He'll be back.

I was furious when the Phils nixed the Valle/Cloyd deal for Wilton Lopez last winter. It was obvious the only way Valle was going to see the inside of CBP was to buy a ticket and Cloyd was a 7th starter.

Lopez had a rough season with Colorado but has a live arm. Before last year he had three straight years of a sub 3.00 ERA. Another missed opportunity by the Phils crack medical staff and of course, Ruben Amaro. Now Cloyd and Valle are both history while Lopez continues to average 70 innings a year, pitching 75 innings with the bum elbow the Phils thought he had. Things just keeps getting worse for the Phils.

From MLBTradeRumors: •One GM tells Jon Heyman of (on Twitter) that he doesn't think there's any doubt that Masahiro Tanaka will get more than $100MM.


The Phillies medical staff stopped a trade for a reliever who finished 4th in the league in relief appearances last year, but approved a 2yr/$12M deal for a reliever who didn't make it past mid May before hitting the DL, past June until he was out for the season, and possibly will never pitch in the majors again.

Back before the arbitration deadline, I looked at the FA OF options available and concluded that Dickerson was the best fit for the Phils' needs, as it allowed them to cut bait with Mayberry, as Dickerson would give them an above-average OF defender while allowing Ruf to be the RHB thumper off the bench. And while Dickerson's not a massive power threat off the bench, a career line against RHP of .264/.341./.423 is respectable enough.

Of course, then they went and tendered Mayberry, which threw everything into a cocked hat. Might as well claim Alex Castellanos -- and any other LHB OF or RHB OF with reverse splits -- who hits the wires, in the hope one of them can impress at Spring Training. If nothing else, it might allow net us some extra OF depth with some (likely unattainable) upside.

Apropos of Mayberry, it looks like the Mariners just got Franklin Gutierrez on a 1yr/$1MM deal with another $2MM in incentives. I can already hear the recriminations if he stays healthy long enough to get to those incentives. (Which start at 250 PA.)

Later than scheduled, but, Pap did eventually show for the MLBN interview.


He said, of the very recent trend for smaller contracts for closers, that GM's don't always understand how hard the job is.

He was very neutral/non-committal re the trade rumors. Said he's "still a Phillie right now", and has no control in the situation.

"So what are the odds if you were doing a risk-based decision analysis..."

Now you've got it.

It's about the PROBABILITY, which is high, but it is not GUARANTEED.

With that post you weakened your own argument, AGAIN.

The most surprising thing about Seb Valle is that he is only 23. It feels like he had been around forever.

If they had Lopez and could use that $7M to say sign a guy like Benoit to a 2/yr or even 2 relievers, this bullpen actually might be half-decent this year.

In statistical terms if you have something at a 90% or 95% probability, it essentially becomes either 'truth' or guaranteed depending upon what you are looking at but almost no scientific field use higher than a 95% CI.

If ifs & buts were candy & nuts we'd all have a Merry Christmas.

I find it hard to get too worked up about missing out on a pitcher who had a 1.41 WHIP and a .293 BAA in 2013, with sharply plummeting K/9 and GB rates. This may be one of the few times that the Phillies' medical staff was actually onto something.

TheMick: While I'm no intense fan of the Phillies medical staff, I really can't fault them for their decision just because Lopez's arm didn't fall off last year.

With pitchers, unless the injury has already manifested, there's always a degree of risk associated with one. They decided that the degree of risk for Lopez was too high considering what they were moving (and let's not imagine Valle wasn't in the top 10 in-system prospect list from 2010 - 2012), and what they were seeing in their examination.

In the end, his elbow tendons didn't dance a jig and end up outside his body, but that doesn't mean the odds didn't indicate that was a distinct possibility.

"In statistical terms if you have something at a 90% or 95% probability, it essentially becomes either 'truth' or guaranteed."

I can't believe I'm about to side with Iceman and awh, but contracts are based on legal concepts, not statistical ones. Guaranteed means guaranteed -- as in 0% chance of not happening. The concept you're referring to is the margin of error in statistical studies. Saying that a politician is up by 8 points within a 3% margin of error does not make it "true" or "guaranteed" that he is up by 8 points.

In his last 10 games in the Mexican Pacific League Valle has a slash line of .389/,421/.528 while also playing some right field. Do not need a 23 year old like that on the 40 man.

In addition to BAP's weighing in there, I have to say that scientific fields do not consider 90 or even 95% to be sure things or guarantees.

Very likely? Certainly. However, if you're manufacturing superconducting alloys for a particle accelerator, a 5-10% failure rate is going to put you out of business in a year.

In a vacuum I'd be ok w/ the DFA of Valle. But since the Phils' top two C's will be 35 & 36 for the season, they should be making sure they have better than adequate depth there.

Rupp's backup #3. I imagine Valle is backup #4, but I don't have a problem in only having 3 full-time catchers on the 40-man roster, even if the top two are getting up there in (baseball-playing) years.

I was about to make the point BAP did. In 2013, Lopez's FIP, xFIP, SIERA, BB/9, K/9, and GB% all showed worryingly negative trends. Lopez also lost a 1.4 MPH on his fastball between 2012 and 2013, going from 93.6 MPH to 92.2 MPH. There's plenty there to be concerned about.

Now, pitchers do have off-years and velocity can fluctuate. (Ironically, Lopez's average fastball velocity in 2011 was...92.2 MPH, which rose to 93.6 MPH in 2012.) But in light of the year Wilson had, maybe -- just maybe -- the medical staff saw something that indicated he was going to cease being a dominant reliever and simply become an above-average one. (As, even with his worrisome peripherals, he was still good for an ERA+ of 109.) Whether Valle and Cloyd should've been moved for that diminished return is an excellent question, methinks.

If we run short of power hitters, Rubin could always suit up.

Who's Rubin?

Valle should pass through waivers. Unless a team is really short on catcher depth. Remember he was getting reps in the OF too both last year in Reading and in winter ball. That's not good for a guy who was projected to be an above average catcher.

True, Valle was #4 so it would've taken multiple injuries for him to see the majors...and w/ the removal of home plate collisions, that becomes a little less likely.
I'm not up in arms about the move, just hoping they don't come to regret it (which, given the Phils' history, they prob will.)

By no means, the 40-man is not laced with studs; but in the recent past, the roster had plenty of dead weight, whereby, DFA-ing someone was painless.
Now, a decent commodity like Valle had to be DFA'd.

I guess that's progress. Right?

Speaking of medical issues, it appears Shane Watson needs shoulder surgery.

If nothing else, the removal of plate collisions may have improved the odds (marginally) that Tommy Joseph can actually play the only position where he has value.

"In his last 10 games in the Mexican Pacific League Valle has a slash line of .389/,421/.528 while also playing some right field. Do not need a 23 year old like that on the 40 man."

And here I was thinking he sucked based on the numbers from his 608 minor league games, plus his 28 games in the Mexican Pacific League that preceded his hot streak. Silly me.

Oogie~ Yes I was referring to the current regime.

"But will they plow some of that money back into player development to upgrade the minor league system and coaches, pay their scouts ..."

AWH~ Probably not. It appears that they're acting like a "small market" team again. As one poster put it "they needa lot of things they're not going to get".

I blame RAJ for most of the problems and rightly so. Now the FO has got to be tying his hands. He says their "built to win" but I honestly believe he knows they're not. And he can't do anything at all to fix what's broken. It's obvious by what he's done this off-season, he really hasn't improved the team (even marginally). Even if he could, I have no faith and trust in him to do so.

BAP: Well come on now. Those 2 doubles, 1 HR, and 11 singles totally change the outlook on this guy.

I mean, if you forgot the 12/1 and 12/13 games where he went 0-4, he'd be batting .500/.536/.713!

This is a really stupid argument.

Can we all agree that a) Rollins' contract is not guaranteed for 2015, and b) it is extremely likely, nonetheless, that Rollins will be a Phillie in 2015?

Before he got sidetracked on a hopeless semantical argument about the meaning of "guaranteed," MG's original point was that, by including a vesting option that is relatively easy to attain, RAJ essentially caved to Rollins' demand of a 4-year contract. I think that point is basically true. RAJ didn't "guarantee" a 4th year, but he did largely cave in by agreeing to terms which made that 4th year highly probable. Of course, now that I've said that, I expect to spend the entire afternoon debating what it means to "cave in."

DPat: If you don't think that Marlon Byrd, who has proven that he can both field and hit at an MLB level, is in no way superior to a DYoung/Mayberry combination, then I have to revise my opinion of you.

Ditto if you don't think that Brad Lincoln is better than Chad Durbin.

Carmex being better than Lannan is probably one or two rungs down the ladder as far as probability goes, but still fairly likely considering how little Lannan actually gave us last year.

Valle doesn't have options left?

That's surprising.

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