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Wednesday, December 18, 2013

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Henry Schulman ‏@hankschulman 15m
Holy moly! RT @JeffPassan: Sources: Shin-Soo Choo turned down a seven-year, $140M contract from the Yankees.
Retweeted by David Murphy


Does he not want to play in NY, or does he think he can get more $$?

Dpat's consistent harping on Marlon Byrd getting market value is one of the most entertaining things going on this offseason.

I'll be shocked if any other club comes close to that 7/140 deal for Choo. He's probably this year's Michael Bourn.

GBrett, Boras did the same thing with the Yankees that he did with the Phillies and Madson, with the same result.

Recall that the Phillies offered 3/30 and Boras "advised" the Phillies that they would agree to 4/44. The Phillies turned around and signed Papelbon.

Looks like the virtually the same thing happened with Choo.

To repost, I think Snot Boreass miscalculated the market for Choo.. I think he tops out at 6 years 100 mill.

I'd bet Choo ends up finding $120MM. Mistake by Boras on this one.

Really, what is the difference between $140 and $153 million? It's less than $2MM per year. Really strange, if true.

If Boras can get a tema to give Choo more than 7/140 AND lose a draft pick, I'll be truly amazed.

I'm pretty happy to see Gwynn as a possible cheap replacement for Mayberry, though if previous seasons are any indication, he could be on pace to win the AAA triple crown and still not get a callup.

I know next to nothing about Marson defensively and I didn't even know Ryan O'Sullivan had a brother.

Besides the whole "hitting" thing, Tony Gwynn Jr. is actually a pretty good baseball player.

Gwynn Jr has had a couple decent years where he was an okay 5th OF. 2012 was pretty ugly for him at the MLB level though and he never made it to the majors in 2013.

From 2009-2011, he was a consistent 2 Win (bWAR) guy with bad offense (83 OPS+) but great defense in CF.

Not a bad guy to give a ST invite to with no real commitment.

I saw Valle play last year and thought his defense was terrible. Seen better high school catchers. I didnt think either he or Gilles would make it to the majors before I would.

Trading Pence so you dont have to pay him 13 mil while signing Byrd for 16 mil is another knee slapper.

Boras didn't turn the Michael Bourn contract into the fiasco I thought he would, but he probably lost money by going in hard on length of contract and AAV.

I figure Choo will end up similarly, on a deal that's considered a fair deal based on the previous year's FA market, but is a slight underpay on this year's - but maybe 2 years longer than the team tendering the deal would have liked.

Looks like we're collecting no hit/all glove OF I guess that's because the Phils are an offensive juggernaut. Does anyone see a starter with a .285 avg. or better? (from the projected starting 8)

Monty: Byrd's making $8MM/year. Pence is making $18MM/year.

Phillibuster:
Coming into this off-season, 5yr/$80MM was expected to be the FMV of Choo. When Hunter Pence got $10MM more over the same time-frame, it was obvious Choo was going to beat the market's expectations for him. The question at this point is just how much he's going to beat it. Someone up-thread said 6yr/$100MM, and that's about where I think his true value is in the current FA market.

Anything above that, I think, is a tribute to Scott Boras's talents as a negotiator and cajoler. I can't help but hope Choo does "only" get $100MM, as a player's rapaciousness is just as annoying as an owner's.

Juums: Yes, because a mutually bargained-for contract taking place on the open market is a sure sign of "rapaciousness."

Manship will have competition for starting job at LV from O'Sullivan.

"He's hit .219/.309/.299 in six big-league seasons but is viewed as more of a defender".

Let's hope so!

Honestly, I could see Choo getting $100MM, but I think it's going to take more years if he does (say, 7/$90MM with a $10MM vesting option for year 8).

I think Boras is overplaying his hand right now, and if he doesn't dial it back soon Choo's going to wind up like Bourn. He'll still get a hefty deal that would have him and 5 generations of descendents set for life, but he's going to find potential signing teams making trades instead of giving in to Boras' demands.

Especially with the draft pick attached, which I feel like is something Boras hasn't fully adjusted his tactics to incorporate, yet.

Josh Outman to Cleveland for Drew Stubbs. Phormer Phillie bonanza today.

Indians to get Outman from the Rockies in exchange for Stubbs, per Rotoworld.

Monty: Comparing one year of Pence's salaey to 2 years of Byrd's is fairly silly.

Jack:
This is in the context of assuming the Yankees did offer him 7yr/$140MM and that it was turned down because Choo wanted to make "Ellsbury money". I suppose one can quibble as to whether that rises to level of "rapaciousness" -- I would argue it does, when we're dealing with sums of money none of us can truly fathom -- but it is at the very least indicative of avariciousness. Which, if you feel is a serviceable synonym, feel free to substitute it in.

... unlike a link, I could click on it without having to worry about getting sent to GTown_Dave's porn site.

I resent this. My porn site contains nothing but the classiest transsexual midget amputee fornication videos, w/ a bare minimum of malware-ridden pop-ups & duplicitous links.

A fungible reliever for Stubbs would actually be a pretty good move for the Phillies.

I was never high on Stubbs, but when you put him next to Mayberry, he starts looking pretty damn good.

Juums may be my new favorite poster just for the use of the word avariciousness.

GTown: In that case, next time you SHOULD provide a link.

Marson and Gwynn are the first two minor league/spring invites that are actually a bit useful.

Gwynn is a viable defensive CF/5th OF type and Marson is as good/better than Nieves.

Just wonder if Mayberry or Ruf gets moved before the start of spring training.

If Gwynn is preferable to Mayberry, and Marson is preferable to Nieves, mightn't we rather trade the dudes who aren't owed anything (MiLB signings), which would likely get us a better return?

It'd cost us literally no money.

I would really like to see Gwynn JR out preform Mayberry and allow the Phillies to move on from him. What has Marson's issue been? Frequent injuries or inability to stick at the MLB level?

Mayberry sucks, but he is definitely a better bench player than Tony Gwynn, Jr.

Juums: Ok, I'll bite. I fail to equate trying to earn the most money someone is willing to pay you for your services as greed, especially given the essential openness of the market here (though I'm by no means some sort of Randian objectivist). I would submit most people do what you're saying all the time. It's called a market economy. It just happens to be that the market for baseball players is on a larger scale than the market for whatever it is we do.

Now, maybe most people are guilty of avarice. This is probably true. But this seems like an odd criticism in this context, then, because professional sports is probably as close as American-style capitalism gets to actually being a meritocracy. There is no rent-seeking here, at least by players (unlike by owners, who offload their costs to taxpayers). There are no real externalities (unlike, say, the financial system in the years before the crash).

If it turns out Choo misjudged the market and will earn less than the Yankees offer (if that offer is even true), then that's what he'll get, just as if he judged it correctly, he'll get more. I see no reason to root for one outcome as opposed to another.

CS--He has been an all-glove catcher, but a right shoulder injury for the last two years has detracted from his lone MLB-worthy skill, and he was beaten out by another backup catcher in Cleveland. Phillies can hope he regains his health and provides defensive depth at catcher. He has not been able to hit major league pitching. Doubt that's going to change...

From mlb.com:

The Indians decided against tendering Marson a contract for the 2014 season, making the catcher a free agent this offseason. The 27-year-old Marson served as Cleveland's primary backup catcher from 2010-12, hitting .216 with a .594 on-base plus slugging percentage across 236 games. Marson's primary skills come on defense, where he is lauded for his game calling and ability to control the running game. Marson struggled in the latter area over the past two years due to a right shoulder issue that ultimately sidelined him in 2013.

DPat: Please post the link or any evidence of anyone saying Byrd could have been signed for 8 million dollars total.

And no- you saying the same thing a week ago does not count. Nor do anonymous e-mails signed by [REDACTED]

Jack: I think the point is that regardless of trying to maximize one's own earnings potential, at some point you reach a level where any increase in salary is purely academic.

The annual interest on $1MM in the bank is about $50K, which is more than most Americans earn in a year. The AAV of Choo's alleged contract offer is around $20MM. In other words, after working for one year, he'd be making $1MM/year in interest on that single year's salary - not even touching the principle.

Unless you go crazy with spending, the difference between earning $15MM/year and $20MM/year is largely a point of ego or pride, rather than representing any sort of significant financial barrier to acquiring anything you could ever want.

Matt Gelb (@magelb)
Phillies promoted John Mizerock to assistant hitting coach. Punxsutawney’s finest.

Sad story about Ryan Freel. A well written article about the demons he faced and his last few years after baseball.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/magazine/when-the-game-is-gone/

Octoraro Orphie is far more reliable than Phil, after all.

Unlike Mayberry, Tony Jr. doesn't have a lick of power. He also doesn't walk. But he can run and field above average and, against RHP, he's not an automatic out. (He is an automatic out vs. LHP.)

He wouldn't be the worst 5th outfielder in the league.

BAP - It depends on what they are using Mayberry for though and who else they carry on the bench.

If Ruf is already going to largely be a bench fixture, it makes no sense to carry Mayberry. Better off with a 5th OF who can actually play CF defensively and has some speed.

Bigger issue is that Brown is a huge question to stay healthy and Revere has yet to play an entire season in CF. Crazy as it sounds, I almost would bet Byrd is Phils' OF likely to start the most games next year.

Octoraro Orphie is far more reliable than Phil, after all.

Damn skippy. Phil is all about the spectacle. Orphie goes out there & gets the job done.

He wouldn't be the worst 5th outfielder in the league.

I believe this disqualifies him from playing for the Phillies.

GTown: Not if he's our 4th outfielder.

Other than MG, who is committed to hating Nieves regardless of what the statistics and scouts say, is there anyone who thinks Marson is superior? If so, why?

"DPat: 5 wins isn't negligible. It isn't enough to get the Phillies into the playoffs, but it's not like improving a team by 5 wins (10 net games, by virtue of not losing those 5) isn't quite significant."

Philli~ I respectfully disagree. IMO they're probably closer to a 70-win team than an 80 one. You make a valid point about 10 net games. Very valid. But in the grand scheme of things, it doesn't make a difference in this case.

TTI~ No there isn't a link that stated he could've been sign for 8 million. But he made 750k last year. Just like Papelbon, RAJ was probably bidding against himself. I think he paid way too much. I think he could've gotten him for much less. That's my opinion. You don't like it? Too bad. And where did I post any annonymous e-mails? Not this year. Don't accuse me of that. Loser.

"A fungible reliever for Stubbs would actually be a pretty good move for the Phillies."

Yeah Lore~ You're right about that. Stubbs K's too much but he can go get the ball & he has some pop in his bat. Too bad RAJ didn't think of that.

D Pat: Your argument was "there was zero improvement." I pointed out that while the improvement wasn't enough to make the playoffs, it was a definite and significant improvement in 3 areas.

The median win total in 2013 was 83. Adding 5 to that would have put you 2 games out of the 2nd NL WC - probably 1, honestly, allowing for some of those games coming against Cinci/Pitt. 5 wins also would have changed the winners of 4 of 6 divisions.

Just because it doesn't give the Phillies a likely shot at making the playoffs doesn't mean there wasn't noticeable improvement. You don't believe that the only successful season is one in which a team wins the World Series, do you?

clout: you act like MG is unique in his stubbornness towards evaluating players. You've been damning any positive word said towards Jason Donald and Lou Marson for the last 5 years. So while also being right about nieves/donald/marson all being bad, you're juts as stubborn.

"I think he could've gotten him for much less. That's my opinion. You don't like it? Too bad."

This is what passes for fact in DPat's world. Not the MLBtraderumors or Fangraphs model that said Byrd would make $7-8 million on a two year deal. Nope, it's his opinion and even when he's proven wrong multiple times he will stick to it.

Other than MG, who is committed to hating Nieves regardless of what the statistics and scouts say, is there anyone who thinks Marson is superior? If so, why?
***********************************

Nope but I'm happy to sign him as AAA depth on a minor league deal. I even suggested as much a few weeks back when he was released.

I don't see how anyone could have a problem with any MiLB signing. If that player catches lightning in a bottle, great for the team. If they don't, there's no risk.

Well, Marson has a much better career OPS+, a much better career CS%, and a vastly superior career WAR despite far fewer years in the league. Other than all of that, plus the fact that Marson is 9 years younger, Nieves figures to be the much better player in 2014.

DPat: You are a waste of air and sperm. You can't just say "He could've been signed for 8 million total," when every prediction had him going for almost exactly the amount of money he got.

Deal with it- you don't like Amaro like many here, that is fine. But many here who hate Amaro deal in logic and fact. You deal in fairy tales and insane ramblings. You are a laughinstock on this blog and you only make yourself look dumber every time you take the time to peck out a message on your keyboard.

You can post stupid opinions with the phrase, "It's what I think...." but the simple fact is- No one gives a damn what you think!

"I don't see how anyone could have a problem with any MiLB signing. If that player catches lightning in a bottle, great for the team. If they don't, there's no risk."

I don't entirely disagree with you, but I do disagree that there's no risk. One risk is that, if the guy ends up catching lightning in a bottle in spring training, he could wind up on your team at the expense of a better player. Another risk is that the PAs that you give to this hypothetical MiLB signing could cut into the evaluation time you're able to give to another player.

BAP: Wanna bet on who has the better year?

Nobody knows what Byrd could have made if RAJ didn't sign him too quickly. But that is the problem because he should have waited him out to strick a better deal.

TTI I don't owe you anything loser.

bap - Agreed. I was basing my assessment of risk on a risk/reward type model. The reward of these players catching lightning in a bottle outweighs the risks of bringing them in on MiLB deals. Understood about the evaluation time in ST but even if a player is sent to AAA, they can still be evaluated and added to help the MLB roster. Especially if that player is younger/has options.

I like the Gwynn Jr signing because the OF options in LV are dreck. Unless Dugan starts in AAA (highly doubtful) the AAA OF consists of Gilles, Castro, Susdorf and a few other scrubs.

DPat - You are assuming the price of Byrd would've went down if the Phillies had waited out the market. You do know that the opposite could've happened to correct? There could've been a bidding war for his services. That's just as plausible as your scenario. Denying that the price could've gone up is completely blind.

D Pat: That's a bit of a false argument.

Who knows how much any player could have gotten if [Signing Team's GM] "didn't sign him too quickly?"

I mean, if the Mariners hadn't jumped on Cano, and nobody had signed him by the time May rolled around, you can bet he'd be looking at a drastically smaller deal (probably a 1-year only, though).

BAP--Marson has a shoulder injury that has been affecting his defense for a couple years now. He's coming off an unceremonious DFA and Nieves had a decent year behind the plate last year. I don't want that bet because I know backup catchers can vary wildly from year to year (remember Sal Fasano? dare I say his name, the dreaded Rod Barajas?). I guess that explains the thinking behind the Nieves signing. Shoot, I hope Ruiz plays 120 games and has a career year and the point is moot. I hope Rupp outplays all of them and turns into Johnny Bench...

I would say that this entire offseason is a buzzkill except there was no buzz to kill.

I don't see Choo doing better than 7/140. If he just doesn't want to play for the Yankees that's fine, but if he feels that offer wasn't fair for his skills...well I would disagree with him and Boras on that.

One thing I'll say is I'm no longer surprised by how much a team will over pay a player in both dollars and years anymore. Not after all the bad contracts the last few years. It seems like the owners have learned nothing about giving out 5-10 year deals at huge sums to players in their 30's. More often than not they're mostly paying for past performance, but that hasn't stopped them.

"Besides the whole "hitting" thing, Tony Gwynn Jr. is actually a pretty good baseball player."


Jack, FTW...

"Nobody knows what Byrd could have made if RAJ didn't sign him too quickly. But that is the problem because he should have waited him out to strick a better deal.

TTI I don't owe you anything loser."

This was not me. But I'll tell you what TTI. YOU DEAL WITH IT. You're just pissed off because I make a lot of correct statements here, You don't don't agree & that's you're big problem. You've made false statements about me this year, specifically that I made references to whom they should sign among other things. You call me a waste of air and sperm and a laughing stock here. You should look in the mirror. You must have been dropped on your head as a kid. Hell, I've even agreed with you on some of your points,and have told you so.

But you, unlike others act like I'M to blame for what has happened with this team. And while yes, there could've been other teams interested in Byrd, granted, I didn't read it, did you? And his signing came out of the blue. No one expected that.

But I'll tell you what, I hope we never meet, because if we do I'll show you 2 things. exactly how wrong you are about me and just how much of a waste I am. I didn't start this personal war with you. You did. You'd better hope to God I never get the opportunity to finish it.

Nieves vs Marson

A lot depends on the extent to which Marson's right shoulder is healthy. If Nieves manages to hit close to .300, then he has some value.

I bet he hits below .250 this year with no power, a crummy OBP because of his sub 5% BB rate, and subpar defense.

Marson is a below average to poor offensive catcher but at least he BBs and is a good defender.

Take the .220 backup who plays good defense and BB at a high clip with no power over the .240 backup who is subpar defensively and has no power and a crummy OBP.

Can't we all just get along?

Red & Phlli~ I'm not assuming the price on Byrd would have come down. I saying I believe he was paid too much to start with. Now, based on what other OF'der have gotten this year, it's a moderate contract, true.

But Byrd has had only 2 good years I believe, and while I'm not certain that they could've gotten him for less, as I said in my previous post, I didn't read nor hear of any team being interested in him at the time he signed. Certainly not the Phils. I just believe Amaro paniced and overpaid (a la Papelbon). But all of us knew he wasn't gonna pay 15 million per uear to Cruz or anyone else, so I guess in his mind he was justified. It's not a totally terrible signing but at that price I don't think it's a great one either.

D Pat - Overpaid by what measure or comp though?

Papelbon was a clear outlier at the time and a historical deal in terms of a closer.

Maybe in a more challenging financial year Byrd gets a 1-year deal but it is hard to believe with all of the money floating around MLB & general trends he doesn't get 2 guaranteed years.

Even if Amaro overpaid, Ross got 2 yrs/$15M last year. So maybe Amaro overpaid by by $1-2M over 2 years. On a $160M payroll, that doesn't mean anything.

If you think Byrd is going to be terrible this year and the Phils should have used that $8M in another way, that is a different argument entirely.

D Pat: I imagine lots of teams had interest - they just weren't willing to take the first steps as quickly as the Phillies were. Does that mean they paid more than they might have? Well, maybe, but it's equally possible someone else could have gotten him at the same rate before we had a chance - or, as intimated, there could have been an escalating bidding war.

Even if Byrd gives us his 3-year average, I don't think any of us would turn our noses up at a .275/.320/.431 slash from the outfield after last year. Especially one that comes with a plus glove and average-to-above-average arm.

Is it a great signing? No, but I don't think anybody's saying that. It's a solid one, most likely - if perhaps a year too long (although the vesting option isn't super-easy, so it could be about right) - that improves the outfield over almost all options that wouldn't be prohibitively expensive, however.

Above all, I don't think it's reasonable to expect him to be available at any significant quantity under what we paid. There were lots of teams that wanted an average-to-above-average corner outfielder that was going to cost neither draft pick nor massive contract. Just look at all the teams that have signed corner outfielders that are probably at around the same level or lower, for similar or more money and similar or more years:

Morse, McLouth, Rajai Davis, Chris Young, Murphy, Dejesus... And that's not counting the massive deals to Ellsbury, Beltran.

DPat: I will say it again. You are a laughingstock and a waste. You say we should've signed better players the past two years? No sh!t genius! You wanted us to sign every player possible so of course at some point you are gonna be "right".

And the response you are looking for is that you know nothing about what Byrd could've gotten either above or below 16 million. Stop spouting your opinion and acting like it is fact.

And Internet fighs? Again- you are a loser!

TTI vs. DPat. MG vs. Nieves.

Personally I enjoy TTI vs. DPat much more, because at least DPat has the ability to defend himself.

MG will be repeating the same three things about Nieves all year- three things that basically everyone agrees on- flogging him like some helpless rag doll, for reasons nobody but MG can understand.

If Nieves hits for a high average and plays good defense, then he did what Amaro expected. We'll see. Just think they wasted money signing Nieves and Frandsen.

"Nobody knows what Byrd could have made if RAJ didn't sign him too quickly. But that is the problem because he should have waited him out to strick a better deal."


Boy, that just hurts my brain to think about. It's just so inane.

Dom, that's pure speculation on your part. 1) If he had waited him out someone else might have jumped in and "strick" a deal. 2) Whether you believe it or not, many teams actually do the kind of analysis that Matt Schwartz does over at MLB trade rumors.com when they try to gauge what a player is worth and ought to be paid.

BUt, what we HAVE learned on BL is that in "DPat World", DPat's opinion counts as fact, even if it disagrees with every other opinion out there, and even if ultimately it proves to be in error.

Dpat: "It's not a totally terrible signing but at that price I don't think it's a great one either."


Actually DPat, what you're doing, as I pointed out above, is engaging in speculation.

If Byrd puts up the numbers he did in 2013 -

.291/.336/.511 with 24 HR and 88 RBI

then it will have been a GREAT signing.

OTOH, if he puts up the numbers he did in 2004 -

.228/.287/.321 5 HR, 33 RBI

then it will have been a TERRIBLE signing - even if they had only signed him for the MLB minimum.

You do understand that, no?

Just think they wasted money signing Nieves and Frandsen.

Agreed, & I believe this despite actually liking Frandsen.

Eh. I can't get too worked up about Nieves, but I do agree that Frandsen was probably superfluous. I have to think there's a trade involved somewhere - or one that was in the process of being done, but then didn't happen - which is why the move.

Ryan Lawrence ‏@ryanlawrence21 3h

Amaro on not spending to lux. tax: "Why would you spend money that you think is going to be money not well spent?" http://ow.ly/rTvcl

Amaro on not spending to lux. tax: "Why would you spend money that you think is going to be money not well spent?" http://ow.ly/rTvcl

I think Amaro must have the memory of a goldfish or something.

Amaro on not spending to lux. tax: "Why would you spend money that you think is going to be money not well spent?" http://ow.ly/rTvcl

Signs Ryan Howard to a extension early when his FA Year would have been the same year as Prince Fielder and Albert Pujols.

"Why would you spend money that you think is going to be money not well spent?"

I hope someone fun-loving intern in the Phillies Front Office takes the initiative to PhotoShop this quote onto Papelbon's head shot, makes 900 copies, and wallpapers Rube's office with it (at which point he'll be summarily dismissed and invoiced for the paper/toner costs).

@willardpreacher I would lead the crowdsourcing effort to reimburse that intern and help him/her find a new job.

Who you calling a scrub? Gwynn will be in the minors and Mayberry will be the 4/5 OF. I provided more value than Gwynn..

I saw that Franklin Gutierrez signed with Seattle for $1M plus up to $2M in incentives. I bring this up because he was someone I mentioned when asked, "If not Mayberry, who?" Gutierrez hits LHP better than Mayberry does and, unlike Mayberry, he is a defensive whiz.

"Jack: I think the point is that regardless of trying to maximize one's own earnings potential, at some point you reach a level where any increase in salary is purely academic."

In which case, it's also morally neutral. If the difference between 120 million and 140 million is "academic" -- and I don't think that's quite the word -- then preferring one over the other can't matter in any moral sense -- either for moral monster Choo or for the front office angels attempting to bargain him down.

In any case, it is strange that in a "free market" world, it's the professionals who possess truly scarce skill sets that happen to generate stratospheric levels of value -- that these are the people who should be disqualified from earning what the market would otherwise pay them.

Not surprised about that Amaro quote about spending money wisely.

But it's a diversionary tactic.

Here's the real rub:

He's on a budget that's capped at $170MM that David Montgomery has imposed, and Amaro is just simply not going to tell us the truth.

Double cheeseburger on the McDonalds dollar menu is the best thing to happen to american society outside of the internet.

Sliced bread is the last time you can find a better development for mankind.

I dare anyone to say otherwise.

Oh yea and Mayberry sucks.

octorara orphie is a stiff.

"Double cheeseburger on the McDonalds dollar menu is the best thing to happen to american society outside of the internet."

Taco Bell staying open until 4am ranks at least as high as the double cheeseburger thing.

Yes, if we're going to entertain an argument about player salaries based on the declining marginal utility of wealth, let's at least consider where the money is coming from. Compare Choo's place on the utility curve with the transferees, the Steinbrenners, who have as much use for $1M dollars as I do for a french fry. George Steinbrenner even had the wacky fortune to die in 2010, they year of no estate tax. My guess is that this rumored transaction would increase the level of utility in the world even if only by few happy meals.

I don't know what kind of world is being envisioned, but there's a ton of money in baseball. Baseball players, at least the veterans, are fortunate relative to other professional athletes in that they are able to share in that wealth.

I guess everyone is a little hungry for burgers and fries then. Strange.

Matt Gelb (@magelb)
Amaro cited "analytics" in acquisition of Roberto Hernandez. They are betting on his HR rate normalizing.

Let's hope they view it as just that -- a bet -- and not as the sink or swim test for analytics. Fangraphs made a good case:

Again, since 2002, there have been 1,580 individual starting-pitcher seasons of at least 100 innings. Hernandez’s 2013 owns the second-highest rate of homers per fly ball, above 21%. Basically, twice the league average. Mark Trumbo just put up a rate of about 21%. The question is, all right, so what does that mean going forward? We can look at the four worst rates from the season before. Ervin Santana regressed to something much closer to average. Tommy Hunter regressed to the average, but as a reliever. Jason Marquis kept allowing a ton of homers. Henderson Alvarez rebounded to allow the lowest rate of homers per fly ball in all of baseball.

So, there’s your answer. Hernandez, this coming season, will not regress at all, or he’ll move to the complete opposite extreme, or he’ll regress to the average, or he’ll regress to the average upon changing jobs. That covers literally every base. It feels like we’ve learned a lot, but really, we haven’t learned anything. Not as far as next season is concerned.

The safest assumption is that Hernandez will allow dingers, but fewer of them.

Every time i hear RAJ put all the weight on Howard's shoulder, i just cant help and think. Boy did i frack up here, but im going to use the Big Piece as my fall guy.

What do the analytics say about Hernandez's 4 seasons with ERAs above 5.25?

Quaff, oh quaff this kind nepenthe and forget this lost SpendGalore!'
Quoth the Ruben, 'Nevermore.'

a commenter in that article Dickie Thong linked mentioned that her dad would drag out 2 names when she complained about the
Phillies. he'd say at least you didn't have to root for pitchers like "Losing Pitcher" Mulcahy and "Boom Boom" Beck. i was unfamiliar with both.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugh_Mulcahy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boom-Boom_Beck

Taco Bell and the latex Double Cheeseburger? Both wreck too much havok on your GI tract if you are over 30.

Apparently Tanaka will not be posted and the Golden Eagles are going to pay him $8 Million next year.


So much for that.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/12/19/report-rakuten-will-not-allow-masahiro-tanaka-come-to-the-united-states/

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EST. 2005

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