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Tuesday, December 03, 2013

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Seidman: Their projected salaries were what they'd make in arbitration. Now that they are nontendered, they are simply free agents and can be signed at whatever amount is agreed upon.

Yes. Is it not still relevant info to their projected worth in free agency?

your comment about Garret Jones being too pricey made me think you were talking about his $5.3M estimate, and not that he'd be bid on too heavily by other teams.

Gotcha. I still expect Garret Jones to make something like that in free agency. Maybe like $4.5 million for a year or $7.5 for two.

If Willie Bloomquist is making $3 mil a year...

Amaro's latest interview:

on Mayberry: "Any player who can hit 14 home runs in this day and age off the bench in limited at-bats and have the versatility he does … there was no thought to non-tendering him… He’s got versatility. He can play first base and all three outfield positions. That versatility and the fact that he’s got some power are all things in our estimation that are pluses.

on Frandsen: "He also plays three positions so he has some versatility. He’s not a great defender, but he can give a guy a spell and there’s value in that.

On future plans: "We’re looking for starting pitching depth, bullpen depth and more versatility in the outfield."


Amaro, you trolling bastard.

Sounds like a backhanded compliment by Amaro on Frandsen.

Makes you wonder why Amaro resigned him.

There are some really intriguing veteran bullpen arms out there and some reclamation projects too.

Really wish Amaro would have taken that $900k and used it instead to help sign another veteran arm on a 1-year deal.

MG: Because Amaro wants players who have the ability to suck at many different things?

Lots of Jayson Werth-esque candidates out there. Expect Amaro to pass on all of them since he just tendered contracts to Mayberry and Frandsen :'(

Tendering all 'his' guys leaves the roster too fat to make many signings of these non-tender guys.

Kendrick has value, may be a bit expensive, but he'd be at the top of this list for most teams. Even at his possible arb or agreed salary I think he could be traded if Phillies upgrade.

Mayberry is questionable. Since they tendered him he will still suck, but if they didn't he'd OPS .850 for Minnesota, kinda like Schierholtz. Not sure he has much trade value but if they can keep his salary closer to 1.5M rather than 2.0M that would help. I'd figure Byrd/Hernandez could hold down CF.

No idea on Frandsen. Only possible benefit is that he can hit lefties and play 3B. But neither of those things are good enough to keep a roster spot. Just like Durbin last year, since he has a salary he will make the 25man, then need to be cut after a month or two of bad performances.

Why not leave him out there and see who'd be willing to take a non-guarantee to get the 3rd base job/platoon?

Definitely like Kalish and Boggs or Madson on incentive deals.

Versatility and Production

Gotta love it.

Best part is that yes, Mayberry once hit 14 HRs in a season...it was in 2012, not last year...and it took him nearly 500 PA to do it. He wasn't a bench player that year, he started 107 games that year.

Corey, nice write-up on the discards from the other clubs. I agree with your assessments of Ryan Webb and Wesley Wright, saying they should top Rube's list, although they were at the end of your list. I'd also take a flyer on Jordany Valdespin. He can't be any worse than Mini-Mart. Getting out of the Big Apple might solve his head problems.

SP (4)
Lee
Hamels
Kendrick
MAG

RP (4/5)
Adams (?)
Pettibone
Diekman
Bastardo
Papelbon

IF
Howard
Utley
Rollins
Asche
Frandsen
Galvis/Hernandez

C
Ruiz
Kratz

OF
Brown
Revere
Byrd
Mayberry
Ruf

Leaves 3 spots. SP and relievers. By my math the phillies are $15-20 under the luxury tax threshold for next year.

He started 89 games last year...and "bashed" 11 HRs in 384 PA...stunning power with 1 HR every 35 PA.

In 2012, it was 1 HR every 34 PA
In 2011, it was 1 HR every 19.7 PA so the comment might have made sense then...maybe he had some 2 year old scouting reports that he relied on. If that's the case, the addition of a stats/sabr guy is clearly already paying off as we're no longer using 7 year old reports but rather 2 year old reports.

Excelsior!!!

We may finish 4th place next year but, by golly, you won't find a more versatile team in all the major leagues.

The quote/decision on Mayberry is not nearly as damning as the quote/decision on Frandsen.

I mean, honestly?

Actually, if we're going to be terrible, I probably wouldn't dislike it if we shuffled players between every pitch. It'd be like the extreme, fast-paced workouts that Chip Kelly had the Eagles do during the pre-season.

If you don't make it to your next position before the pitch, then you get pinch-hit for during your next AB. Up to and including using relievers as position players.

Noname: You list 14 position players. Phillies carried 12 pitchers nearly all season. One of the position players won't be on the team. If I had to guess, I'd say Frandsen.

I'd walk a mile for a Gamel.

I also recall we had our first "bark in the park" for quite some time in 2013.

If attendance drops further, can we expect "CAT in CBP" nights? Because I've got a couple of cats who'd love if I got them a Bulldog from Luzinski's concession stand.

Clout: Well that's the thing people don't realize about versatility on your bench. It allows you to keep a 7th reliever like Zach Miner, or Luis Garcia, or Cesar Jimenez, and that's huge for a club.

Axford, Wright & Kalish most likely to succeed from that list.

I love when RAJ puffs up these guys' versatility resumés on the ground that they can play 1st base. I mean, if we didn't have Kevin Frandsen, where on earth would we ever find someone who can play a below average 1st base and post a .674 OPS?

"Kendrick has value, may be a bit expensive, but he'd be at the top of this list for most teams. Even at his possible arb or agreed salary I think he could be traded if Phillies upgrade."


Phx, if the Phillies sign Kendrick to a one-year deal - say at about $7MM - and then tried to trade him, there would probably be at least 15-20 teams who would be interested.

When Vargas and Hughes are getting 4 and 3-year deals respectively at 8MM/year, KK on a one year deal at $7MM is an absolute steal.

1B is truly one of the toughest positions on the diamond to fill...I mean, if Howard were unable to go in a given game, we'd have to go with Ruf or Utley or Mayberry or Kratz. If all 4 of those guys were also injured during that same game, we'd be pretty screwed without Frandsen on the 25 man.

The Rays just traded for Ryan Hanigan and then promptly extended him for 3 years...the day after officially signing Jose Molina to a 2 year deal. I guess they're all set at catcher going forward now.

How many clubs have 2 catchers signed to multi-year deals?

Carlos Beltran apparently had a 3 year/$48 million deal on the table.

Wow...

"How many clubs have 2 catchers signed to multi-year deals?"

Stop, or you'll give Rube the idea to sign Erik Kratz to a 2-year deal with a vesting option for the 3rd year. He can play 1B, too, so he's versatile.

Also, Joe Nathan to the Tigers (could be part of why they gave away Fister to clear payroll)...

Pierzynski's deal with the RedSox is 1 year, $8.25 million

The As traded for CF Craig Gentry and Josh Lindblom...

The As are also trying to trade Brett Anderson...

Suddenly lots going on in hot stove action...just nothing interesting for the Phillies.

From MLBTR, sounds like a three team trade (Rays, Reds, Diamondbacks), with Heath Bell being involved as well. Hanigan's contract is $10.8MM for 3 years with a fourth year option, could be $13.7 million all in.

"I love when RAJ puffs up these guys' versatility resumés on the ground that they can play 1st base."


bap, r00b, not being SABR literate, has obviously NEVER heard of the defensive spectrum.

Well, a potential dark horse to beat out Asche and make the 2014 roster, Maikel Franco, is coming back to earth in the DWL.


In 33 games, 116 AB, Franco is posting a .233/.262/.310 line, with 1 HR and 11 RBI.

Isn't the Defensive Spectrum all those dudes who held up the "D-[Fence]" signs during Sixers games in the late '90s?

Amaro World:

If Franco stays in the minors, Asche will start at 3B over Frandsen.

In the very small chance that Franco wins the job, Asche will be demoted to the minors while Frandsen remains the backup.

Guaranteed.

Signing Webb and Wright would on paper make the bullpen much better than it entered last season.

Papelbon
Adams (provided he is healthy)
Bastardo
Webb
Wright
Martin
DeFratus (?)

Is better than the trash we ran out there at the start of 2013.

Sign Bailey and stash him away and you actually have the beginnings of some depth in the bullpen spots.

Of course you still have Mayberry and Frandsen clogging up roster spots but hey- progress in one area.

Holy crap. 3 years and $48 million for Beltran?

Remember that Beltran deal because in 2 years DPat will be telling us how we could've signed him for 16 million AAV.

TTI: I may just be dense right now, but that is 16mm AAV...

Phillibuster: I know it is..The joke is no matter who signs DPat will say we should've signed him regardless of money and all that.

Ahhh. Also: draft pick.

TTI, Adams is likely done - two tears in his labrum (which had already been repaired before) and another in his rotator cuff. Anything we get out of him next year would be an unexpected bonus. Bailey would make for a nice rehab buddy for Adams, but that's all he'll likely contribute next year.

Buster, TTI made a "funny", and just like most humor, there is usually an element of truth therein.

Lore - there's virtually no chance that Franco makes the club out of spring training. He will start in AAA and wait for an injury or ineffectiveness to open a hole at an infield corner. Ideally you keep him out of super-2 status and call him up later in the season.

Colonel Tom: I wouldn't say he is done but that is why I added the caveat about him being healthy. Maybe adding someone like a Boggs or a Mujica (but not at three years for the latter one) would help brace for that loss a little if he were to be done as you think.

Nathan got 2 years and around $20 million from the Tigers...granted, he's going into his Age 39 season but his previous couple years were quite a bit better than Papelbon's...thus, Pap is still getting overpaid by a good $3-4 million a year right now even with contract inflation.

I didn't realize Nathan was that old.

Still rather have Nathan. There are a couple of veterans I like.

TTI, don't forget about Diekman, who was virtually unhittable over the final two months of the season. He has to be in the bullpen picture for next season.

ColonelTom: I like Diekman and I hope he found something at the end of last year. I'd still rather try to sign someone like Wright as another lefty and maybe give Diekman a third lefty in the pen spot or just keep some depth.

.

Before you get out the annointing oil, you should realize that there is absolutely nothing in Diekman's minor-league track records that suggests his dip in BB rate last year was at all sustainable. It pretty much screams small sample size when you put it next to everything else he's ever done.

Steamer has a more favorable fWAR for Nathan (0.8) than Papelbon (0.4) next year in '14.

Papelbon is definitely an overpay, but if Nathan's making an AAV in the 11-12MM range, that's an overpay as well. Probably more so, really, due to age.

Nathan had 9 really good years, and one poor year coming into this deal. Papelbon had 5 really good years and 1 poor (though not nearly as poor as Nathan's) year coming into his current deal.

I have the over/under on when Papelbon gets booed at CBP as April 15th

Sad or funny thing is that Nathan is coming off a year where he was a hell a lot better and is still making $3M less than Papelbon next year too.

Incidentally, I hear Valdespin was given the boot by the Mets.

Wouldn't mind him being in our MiLB system. Primarily so he doesn't end up facing our MLB team for another opponent. Even if he is a Dykstra-esque dirtball.

MG:

Because they'll get blown out in their first 7 games?

Also NEPP advocated Ryan Madson at 11 million AAV when we signed Papelbon.

How would that look now?

Yes I did...of course, I (and nobody else for that matter) knew he was injured at the time.

So there's that.

I also said we should go after Nathan instead of giving up a pick to sign Papelbon at the time...but I'm an idiot like that.

Hoping that a player turned a corner = annointing with oil.

The First Commandment according to BL.

Man-o-man, people here just never tire of beating the Papelbon contract.


Boys and girls, it was an overpay. Everyone knows it. The horse is f8ck88g dead already.

@Redburb: I wrote that in response to the comment that he was unhittable the final two months, not to the comment after about him hopefully turning the corner.

Another in a string of misses from NEPP.

NEPP - Just busting your stones. It happens on here all the time when someone says they hope a player has turned a corner.

Maybe we should get anointing oil for NEPP's prognostication skills?

For the record - the Papelbon contract sucks, always did suck and always will suck.

Yup...if you really want to hang me, you should go back to the 2008/2009 off-season where I said we should sign SP Derek Lowe and Juan Rivera (to platoon in LF) rather than going after Raul Ibanez. That would have been fairly horrible.


Latest news: Salty is apparently going to the Marlins who had previously offered him a 2 year deal...no word yet on the final years/dollars of that deal.

I wonder where he'll be traded next July...

captain hindsight: Madson @ $11M in 2012 is better than Papelbon from 2012-2015 @ $50M, and maybe even 2017 @ $63M

Hey, Captain H, I'm one who, at the time, also was in favor of Madson at 3/33. Guilty as charged.

I'm not very concerned about that because those kinds of injuries are impossible to predict.

IMHO it's the contract where it's a clear overpay at the beginning that rankle, and especially if the player stays healthy and underperforms the contract,

Just like how Greg Golson in 2010 is better than John Mayberry in 2010-2014...and probably 2016.

Lore, Madson would have been 3/33, not just 11MM in 2012.

They'd still owe him money in 2014 whether he pitched or not.

1yr $8M actually.

Lorecore: Golson?

The past 24 hours it seems a lot of other teams are finding ways to "be creative." It's barely December so there's obviously time but for those that predicted a garbage, unimaginative off season from our stellar GM, you are the leaders in the clubhouse

Honestly, it's hard to say Papelbon has underperformed all that much, since he hasn't been put into enough games in the last 2 years to have the opportunity to live up to it.

He's got some blown saves, yes, but wasn't there commentary just the other day about whether saves were the most or second-most useless statistic?

On Beerleaguer, saves are totally worthless EXCEPT when you want to use them to blast Papelbon.

BL: Where the Double Standard makes a mockery of most posters.

Rube says we weren't a fit with the Tigers for Fisker. Think about that, the Nats gave a high grade utility guy, an avg. relief pitcher, and a prospect. Doesn't it seem more and more that people don't want to deal with Amaro. How many coaching candidates turned the other way. He now has an offer out there to an assistant hitting coach that has not been accepted. Free agents are not lined up at the Citizens Bank entrance. When is the last time you heard a player give the GM a compliment. Not saying....just saying!

clout: "Where the Double Standard makes a mockery of most posters."

agreed. Like how you rip people for valuing Frandsen based on his career year, but then defend Mayberry by using his career year.

If Diekman pitches well this season again as he did during the later half of the season, I'll be really surprised. Arguably was the biggest surprise on the team last year although I am expecting his BB/9 to hover much ~5 this year.

Relievers on the 40-man roster

Locks for the Opening Day roster:
Papelbon
Adams
Bastardo
Diekman
De Fratus/Rosenberg

Holdovers
Stutes
Rasmussen
Horst
Garcia

De Fratus used to be the better prospect but De Fratus/Rosenberg had similar stuff and results last year. For both guys to make the Opening Day roster, I imagine that Adams will have to open the season on the DL.

Figure Amaro will add at least one veteran RHP reliever and possibly another although on a minor league deal/major league deal.

Saves are a worthless stat and you don't need that statistic to see Papelbon wasn't much more than an average closer.

By this time next year, Jake Diekman will be mentioned in the same sentence as John Mayberry and Kevin Frandsen -- guys who emerged from many years of sub-mediocrity to have one excellent half season, only to come back the following year & resume their sub-mediocrity.

"On Beerleaguer, saves are totally worthless EXCEPT when you want to use them to blast Papelbon."

Saves are a worthless stat because they make no distinction between the legitimate 1-run save, and the much more common 2 and 3-run saves, which just about any semi-competent reliever could execute with about a 95 to 99% success rate.

Blown saves, on the other hand, tell you if the reliever failed at his basic job of preserving a lead. The stat would be better if it had a little more nuance, but if a guy is 2nd among all NL relievers at blowing leads (as Papelbon was last year), you don't need to be a big fan of the save statistic to declare that this is a very bad thing.

I forgot Aumont in the 'Holdover' group but I bet the Phils FO isn't backing on him.

Maybe the pen surprises next year with a few of the younger guys pitching better than I think, Adams actually giving them some positive contributions, and a veteran FA being a solid contributor.

Lorecore: Wrong, as usual. Mayberry is what he is: A guy who hits LHP, but should never face RHP. I've only been saying about 9,000 times over the past few years. You're the guy who spends his time cherry picking stats to make biased and almost always wrong declarations.

BAP: LOL. That illogic is hilarious.

Papelbon was a reliever who posted a 131 ERA+ through 61.2 IP with a 1.135 WHIP and a 5.18 K/BB.

That's not worth $12.5MM/year, but it's also firmly in the "top tier" of relief pitchers.

If you don't care about number of saves, then him being a "closer" shouldn't entitle him to any greater or lesser scrutiny than any other reliever.

BAP: I don't disagree with everything you say, but you're essentially saying that preventing runs in a particular situation is more valuable than preventing them in any other situation... Which would essentially validate the Save as a statistic.

Blown saves suck, but the guy posted better-than-solid numbers in every averaged statistic (with the exception of K/9, though the corresponding dip in BB/9 helped compensate for that).

"I don't disagree with everything you say, but you're essentially saying that preventing runs in a particular situation is more valuable than preventing them in any other situation."

Well, the whole premise of the closer's role is that preventing runs in the 9th inning is more valuable than preventing runs in earlier innings. And, while I have many problems with the way closers are used, I would basically agree with the general premise. Hence, I don't actually think the save statistic is totally and completely invalid. It's just arbitrary and extremely crude. And it is often cited without any context. Saying that a guy saved 30 games last year tells us nothing about his performance. It's like counting your winnings from the quarter slot machine without counting all the quarters you put into the machine to get those winnings.

Buster, stop making sense.

bap may have a hard time understanding you.

he is, after all, they guy who coined the term "baking the poodle", so a blown save is important to him.

Gregerson, Bell and now Fowler traded. Is Amaro's phone working? Waiting with bated breath on our next overpriced, aging vet signing. Btw interesting comments from Cole today about sometimes you have to know when to start rebuilding. Doubt he regrets the $ on that contact but maybe doing it here.

And in case anyone in the Philles front office isn't paying attention, the other three teams are a lot closer to this one to contending. Hope they enjoyed the run at the top because it's over. Going to be lots of boos and empty seats this summer and many to follow unless amaro gets canned quickly. Just fuming right now at this BS that is going on with this franchise. I will be the first to applaud a good move but does anyone realistically see one coming?

Fowler for Lyles and a fourth OF prospect?! Good God.

Here is the Hamels article: http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/12/03/cole-hamels-phillies-start-over/


Select quotes:

“Our hitting sucked,” he admitted, and if you listened closely, you could hear Phillies fans everywhere reply in unison, “Amen, brother.” Even so, he hoped the team would make bolstering the pitching staff a priority in this off-season — a wish that, with yesterday’s offers to Kyle Kendrick and Antonio Bastardo, may go unfulfilled in any meaningful way.

Cole was also blunt about how the team was just as ugly internally as it looked from the stands. “The energy in the clubhouse changed,” he said. “It used to be all high fives. This season, there weren’t as many high fives. There was a lot of bitterness, pointing fingers — ‘You haven’t played well in a week, why weren’t you in here early?’”

I can understand that line of thought, but I tend not to agree. Run prevention is run prevention. There may be situations where you're willing to allow a small number of runs in order to prevent a large number (walking Miguel Cabrera with the bases loaded and 2 outs vs. pitching to him when you've got a 3-run lead, say), but overall the pitcher's goal is to keep the number of runs allowed to a minimum.

The quarter imagery is a bit lacking, though... Since 30 Saves out of 37 opportunities isn't like saying it cost you 37 quarters to win 30. The Save is not an expected win confirmed (1 quarter not spent, and thus remaining 1 quarter) - the Save was a win-in-question that's been secured (1 quarter becoming [X number of quarters], where X is not universally-agreed-upon, nor even necessarily static). That's why it's only awarded in "close" situations.

Put another way, if you saw that reliever Q* blew 5 saves, putting him in a tie for 7th-most in 2013 (and only 3 from most), you'd think he probably wasn't a great closer. Then again, he also had an ERA of 1.39 over 71 innings. Is he someone you would feel comfortable taking the ball in the 9th up by 1?

*Reliever Q is Mark Melancon.

Cyclic: I can understand that... But let's be fair here. When you win, you overlook small flaws. When you lose, you take small flaws and examine them with an electron microscope.

If the Phillies were winning, they'd be all high fives yet again, and it'd have nothing to do with any changes in the FO, or team chemistry.

So apparently Lorecore knew the Madson deal was only 8 million even though it was reported everywhere as being for 44 million over 4 years.

Also, can't wait for the same guys who didn't want Fowler last year to now complain we didn't get him.

Captain, Lorecore is referring to the deal Madson got from Cincinatti - MONTHS LATER - not the deal that he reportedly agreed to with the Phillies, which was 3/33 or 4/44 depending on who you believe.

Lorecore obviously thinks that Madson would have signed with the Phillies for that amount 2 months prior.

Yep, Mr. Realistic.

Dexter Fowler to the Astros...for Jordan Lyles and Brandon Barnes.

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