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Tuesday, December 24, 2013

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"Maybe Ruben Amaro Jr. really believes he has a potential trade partner lined up, but considering the $1.5 million Mayberry is likely to get in arbitration, that's an expensive gamble for what would be a low-to-mid level prospect at best."

Cue awh with his obligatory riposte about how the market has changed & $1.5M no longer represents an "expensive gamble." But, even if he beats the issue into the ground, he's still right. In a market where Rajai Davis gets 2 years, $10M, a 1-year, $1.5M deal for Mayberry can hardly be called expensive. The problem with Mayberry isn't that he's expensive. It's that he sucks.

i don't think werth was a phillie for 5 years. so he is ineligible for the wall.

Posted by: bullit | Tuesday, December 24, 2013 at 10:50 AM

Good catch...I thought he was but when I looked it up, it was only 4 seasons. Oh well.

Yet more evidence that Amaro and the Phillies are obviously totally lost as an organization and have no idea what they are doing. As if we needed more evidence to that effect.

Mayberry doesnt have much if any trade value...unless he gets off to a hot start that is. If he's crushing LHP and playing decent defense at the corners, he might net us a c level prospect to a team at the deadline but I doubt it.

Madson? Oh goody.

The Phillies don't even bother to sugarcoat the turd anymore. They give us turd wrapped in even more turd.

Gtown, have you seen sugar prices lately? This team has a budget to worry about!

I wouldn't mind giving him a ST invite/minor league deal to see if he's got anything left in the tank.

The upside is there (if he's ever healthy again) but the odds look to be against him given that he seems to have been one of that small percentage of players who simply doesnt make it back from TJ surgery. This is a guy that had one of the very best changeups in baseball in his prime.

NEPP: we both know that Amaro only trades players when they're struggling.

If the player is playing good, he'll never trade them.

Sell low, that's what Stanford taught him.

Yeah, I know. If anything, if Mayberry is killing it in a limited sample size where he mostly sees LHP (think Ricky Ledee a few years back), Rube'd be more likely to try and extend him on a multi-year deal than trade him.

Also, I just realized I used the phrase "a few years back" to describe Ledee's 2004 effort. Damn I'm getting old.

Cliff Lee is the only player I can think of that Amaro traded who was playing well at the most recent time of the trade.

Although he still sold low anyway.

Madson would be fine on a minor league deal, or even a cheap major league deal one. In fact, high-risk, high-upside players like Madson are exactly the kind of players that a team in the Phillies' position SHOULD be looking at. The only thing that gives me pause is the ex-Phillies thing. With the exception of Cliff Lee, that absolutely never works out -- even when it looks good on paper, like the Andy Ashby trade.

lore: Vance Worley & J.A. Happ.

But both of those guys were young. RAJ would never trade a veteran player at his peak, as he knows that any veteran player who is good will likely stay good forever.

Ah, JA Happ. Damn you are right, he did sell high on Happ.

I disagree about Worley, he was traded after his 2012 which ended quite poorly, and overall well below his rookie campaign.

When Worley was traded, pretty much everyone in baseball considered him a viable #4 starter. He immediately turned into a pumpkin.

Both Happ and Worley were traded at nearly the perfect time by Rube.

I have a trade proposal for Mayberry:

Phils trade Mayberry + Cash

I receive: Memories of watching him play the last two years wiped from my brain like Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind

I'll throw in the cash.

no arguments on the Worley trade being a good one, I just don't consider it selling high when he had a 3.01 ERA his rookie year, and a 3.5 ERA in the first half of 2012 when they were dealing Pence/Vic - but then a 5.3 ERA and a DL trip to end the season.

Right, I had forgotten that Worley was pitiful in the second half of 2012. Shame on me. How could I ever forget the hundreds of Beerleaguer debates about whether it was the bone chips or whether it was reversion to expectations?

If the Phils tendered Mayberry just to control his right in a trade, I'm actually 100% in agreement with it.

I would disagree that Mayberry has any value really worth trading for, but still, if you can tender Mayberry and pay his ~$1.7M salary to a team who gives you anything of substance, its at least thinking in the right direction.

Sandberg says he needs a RH hitter who can play CF. We also need a LH pinch hitter with more than warning track power. Mayberry is neither.

But with Worley, the buying team (Twins in this case) at least had some reason to think that there may be some upside for him to show glimmers of his previous self - striking out a buncha dudes looking, that 3.10 ERA, etc. Basically, they saw some upside.

Not exactly sure what upside any buyers on Mayberry would be looking at, unless they also subscribe to the "7 year old scouting report" philosophy, in which case someone might view him as a middling prospect? That's actually the exact mentality that gives Rube reason to believe he has any real trade value.

LorecorE, what do you mean by 'anything of substance'?

anything above org filler basically.

If you got the right team at the right time, for Mayberry and paying his full salary, maybe Phils get a fungible reliever with enough upside to stick in the majors for a year or so.

When the Phillies traded Ben Francisco, they got back one Frank Gailey, a then 26-year old LOOGY who had never (and has still never) pitched in the majors but had decent minor league stats. That's about the return I'd expect for Mayberry. In fact, Mayberry reminds me an awful lot of Ben Francisco. His defense isn't as horrendous, but Francisco was the better hitter in his day.

If they trade AAAberry they will get a bag of used baseballs, two broken fungo bats. And the cut out of the lady owner in major league! Good luck rube

If anyone is bored right now, Comcast
Sportsnet is playing a Phillies game against the Mets from 2007 (El Duque vs Lohse). Just watching this game is reminding me of the awesome times during the 2007 season. The core in their prime, HK announcing the game so much fun. Lineup for anyone that is curious:

1. SS Rollins
2. 2b Utley
3. LF Burrell
4. 1b Howard
5. CF Rowand
6. 3b Dobbs
7. RF Werth
8. C Ruiz
9. P Lohse

That's when burrell hit his 2nd HR off the Rat, after famously declaring Burrell had only a 'one pitch swing' the first time he took him deep a few months prior.

Abreu wants to come back on a one day contract to retire a Phillie.

Ruben is offering a 3 day deal with a full NTC.

And Chase Utley's last walkoff HIT.

*Utley's last walkoff was a walk last season.

TTI and I are moving to Utah to consummate our relationship. We are true tucchus cowboys, moving off to the sunset.

I am so sad my boy came out on Christmas. I just thought he couldn't find the right girl....all these 68 years.

Ah i knew this year garbage heap, special project, lets hope he can turn it around signing was coming.

Abreu absolutely should get brought back on a 1-year deal. In 9+ seasons, he put a .303/.416/.513 (.929 OPS), was a solid defender and good baserunner, and had one of the sweetest swings of any Phils' hitter since I have been old enough to follow the team.

Yeah he only ever made 2 All-Star games and 'the Phils never won nothing with him' but he was close to a 6-WAR/year player during his tenure in Philly and really fun to watch hit.

Always wondered if Abreu had been a white guy, spoke fluent English, and had come up through the Phils' system how he would have been embraced by the fans.

1-day contract and retire. Madson would be fine on a minor-league/major league deal that is incentive laden especially given some of the minor league deals the Phils have given out to complete stiffs so far.

Mayberry > Francisco because of the intangibles although both would make their share of mind-numbing fielding miscues and baserunning gaffes despite average/above average speed.

Francisco had the worst intangibles of any Phils' player since maybe Desi Relaford who was here multiple years and played at semi-regularly.

Given the market for 4th OF-types, I'm not so sure Mayberry's without trade value. Look at the FA pieces still available for a team that's looking for an average-ish corner OF defender who's got some pop off the bench. You're looking at the likes of Brennan Boesch, Roger Bernadina, and Jeff Franceour. Mayberry not be the paragon he was the second-half of 2011, but you can make good arguments for him over all three of the aforementioned FAs.

I don't expect anything to get legitimately excited about in return for Mayberry, but with the dearth of serviceable guys who can aspire to being mediocre in all aspects of their game, he just might surprise us with what he can bring back.

Love the idea of targeting Madson. He's not going to be able to command anything more than a low-base ML deal, if even that. And there's the chance that the guy might still have the ability to be a slightly dominant relief pitcher. Exactly the type of move the Phillies should be making. Very good idea if they can pull it off.

"Always wondered if Abreu had been a white guy, spoke fluent English, and had come up through the Phils' system how he would have been embraced by the fans."

I'm betting that it would be identical.

Nice touch, by the way, adding "come up through the Phillies system" to your nonsensical post to cover up for the fact that Ruiz is a Hispanic man who does not speak fluent English and has been embraced very warmly by the fans.

The difference between Chooch & Abreu is that the former busts ass in every phase of the game, while the latter whined when moved from his preferred spot in the batting order, & didn't even attempt to play defense.

But, but, but he was a gold glove winner....

Madson on a Minor League deal with an invite to ST is worth a shot. If RFD is traded for ANYTHING of value it'll be a miracle. But then again, so will if any team takes him at all. After all, the Phils could always use fungo bats (even cracked ones) and extra baseballs.

It is quite sobering that the Phillies likely have fewer players who would bring back anything meaningful in a trade than any other team in baseball.

The only way any Phillies, other than Utley, and maybe Hamels and Lee, bring back anything worth trading for would be to eat large amounts of salary. And the younger, barely paid players are mostly low ceiling types who would likely bring back no more than other low ceiling types.

A towering testament to the management of one Ruben Amaro, Jr. M(ayb)erry Christmas, everyone.

Tanaka will be posted as per two sources. Now let's watch the Phillies NOT get him.

If Tanaka is posted, the Phillies cannot afford NOT to get him. The contract would probably take them much closer to the luxury tax than they want to be, but they have no real pitching on the horizon from the minors and the back end of their rotation promises to be pretty dreadful. They cannot count on MAG because of health concerns at the very least. And Kendrick, even if he performs like he did before his injury is here one more season, then likely gone.

It's either sign Tanaka for 6/105-110, or save the money and watch attendance shrink back to the days of Sil Campusano and Greg Jeffries.

And remember, it costs them no draft picks, no prospects, no players in trade and no luxury tax. All it costs is money. So, let's see if this ownership group is interested in winning, or if they'll allow Rube to make a token offer so they can say they did it.

And it's important to remember, Biddle is no sure thing, in fact, he seems stalled in a Phillies system that is notorious for poor pitching instruction. And both Pettibone and Morgan, two guys who should at least be serviceable in the majors have been recently injured, Morgan with a shoulder injury. They cannot be realistically counted on.

if abreu retires as a phillie the ceremomy should include naming the RF wire menace "the abreu wall."

If the Phils sign Tanaka, I will take back all my criticism of the Phils' FO for its performance this off-season.

Tanaka should benefit the Phils immediately and should also be one of the core members of the New Phillies. The Phils need to sign Tanaka and other international players to accelerate the re-building process. Simply relying on the draft, trades, and free agency to re-build is too slow.

Of course, there are many other teams that will go all out to sign Tanaka; so, it will cost a lot of dough for the Phils to sign Tanaka. I previously thought that a five-year deal with an AAV of $17-18 million would get it done, but I now think that's too low. I think that six years and $120-125 million will be necessary, which, as I recall, was aksmith's original projection.

That's when burrell hit his 2nd HR off the Rat, after famously declaring Burrell had only a 'one pitch swing' the first time he took him deep a few months prior.

Posted by: LorecorE | Tuesday, December 24, 2013 at 01:38 PM

I think the comment was "one path swing." I would tend to agree with the assessment, but Wagner managed to throw two fat pitches right into that path.

Should the Phillies pony up and get Tanaka, I will consider this offseason a B+ and no longer an F. That one signing would go a long way toward grabbing back a fan base that is about to dwindle to the lows of the late 1980s and late 1990s. And that should be unthinkable after building a brand new, shiny stadium that used to attract fans all on its own. What was understandable in the old upholstered toilet of a stadium should make the ownership ashamed if it happens again. I suppose we'll find out if this group of owners has any sense of shame in them.

Screw it. 6/120 is fine for a number #2 starter.
Lee
Cole
Tanaka
MAG
Hernandez

Once the market settles you can trade Kendrick or hold him or Hernandez as long relief/depth.

Tanaka to the Phils won't happen IMO. While it should, it won't. They'll be outbid, and easily by teams who are willing to spend the money.

Tanaka is going to get PAID!

With the new CBA and smarter GMs hoarding their prospects like crazy, every team should be overbidding for a player who only costs money.

Not sure how 'proven' Tanaka is but Darvish has been good and Matsusaka bad so I guess it is 50/50.

Phillies should be a high budget team so overspending for Tanaka will get them another huge contract but at least it would be for pitching and for a young guy who might actually but worth it throughout.

I definitely figure another team offers 8/150 when all the dust settles. For someone with no MLB pedigree that is incredibly risky.

Why in the world would Tanaka want to come to a 4th place team like the Phillies? Even if they break the bank he'll likely go to the Yankees or Dodgers or a half dozen other clubs with more attractive situations.

Yeah NEPP~ Given how RAJ has completely ruined what was once the best team in the NL 3 years ago, I'd say as long as he's the GM, no top FA, or someone who perceived to be, would want to come here now.

Hell, they couldn't even land Scott Feldman?? who turned down 2/16 to go to Houston for more, 3/30 I believe. I read an article recently (I forget where) that the Phils could once play in the same money league with the Yankees. Not any more. Look at what the Yanks spent this off-season. And that's where Tanaka's going, unless he wants no part on NY. But Phila? No way.

DPat says because of Amaro, no top FA wants to come here. He uses Scott Feldman as an example of a top FA. Scott Feldman was offered one more year and 2 mil AAV more to go to Houston.

Either DPat thinks Amaro should have signed Feldman to 3/30, or he thinks he 'didn't want to come to come here' because of Amaro, and not because of the extra year and money he was offered.

Hahaha. Merry Christmas.

Ice~ What I said was they couldn't even land a mediocre starter like Feldman, if you got my meaning. 2/16 was a good offer for him. Not saying they should have signed him, but I would have taken him over Hernandez, yes. Don't you know sarcasm when you read it? So they won't land a top FA like Tanaka. And it's because of where the team is right now.

RAJ has to take a huge chunk of the blame for where the team is right, which is a 4th place team. Even you could have put together a better off-season than he.

Go big (Tanaka) or go home!

Rube should acquire Tanaka, then bring Cholly back as his interpreter.

E-A-G-L-E-S

I would like to wish

All beerleaguers a
Most joyous

And

Fun new year
And many
Good times.

I hope everyone has a Very Merry Christmas, and that everyone has a Happy New Year!
_____________________________________________________________________


On to BL:

"Cue awh with his obligatory riposte about how the market has changed & $1.5M no longer represents an "expensive gamble." But, even if he beats the issue into the ground, he's still right. In a market where Rajai Davis gets 2 years, $10M, a 1-year, $1.5M deal for Mayberry can hardly be called expensive. The problem with Mayberry isn't that he's expensive. It's that he sucks."
.
.
bap, that's essentially been my argument for the last year or so. Mayberry had a great 2nd half in 2011, which merited another look for him, but he's proven since then that he's not an everyday player.

The problem the Phillies (and other MLB teams) have is that talent being distributed like a pyramid, there's a pretty big dropoff once you get past the top outfielders.

There are 30 MLB teams, so by definition, there should be 90 starting OF in MLB.

So, I went over to ESPN and used the stat sorter to see what would happen if I sorted by ALL MLB OF who got at least 200 PA in 2013.

Only 120 OF in total qualified for the list.

As bad as Mayberry was in 2013, he was still #93 on this list: - that is, got 200 PA.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/batting/_/position/of/sort/OPS/count/81/qualified/false/minpa/200

Thus, the dilemma faced by the Phillies (and those other 29 MLB teams) is WHO are the OF who are #91 - 150, the 4th and 5th OF on MLB teams.

sure, Mayberry may "suck", but there are a lot of OF in MLB who suck worse than he does.

That's just an inescapable fact.

So, if the question becomes "Could the Phillies do worse than Mayberry?", the answer, unfortunately, is "Yes.".


Mayberry, who is a terrible CF and barely average corner OF, is 93rd of 120 in purely a offensive stat. Hooray for him.

awh: He's 93rd if you sort by OPS. But, if you sort by WAR, he's 117th on a list of 120. That tells us that his defense was terrible -- which is kind of a problem, since defense is supposed to be one of the few positives that he brings to the table.

Also, it's not like the 120 outfielders who made the 200-PA cutoff are necessarily the 120 best outfielders in baseball. There are some guys who didn't make that arbitrary 200-PA cutoff who are certainly better, or at least have more upside, than Mayberry.

But, yeah, I certainly agree they could do worse than Mayberry. For that matter, they could also do worse than Wil Nieves or Roberto Hernandez or Kevin Frandsen or Marlon Byrd. But, if your team lost 89 games last year, it strikes me as sort of strange to allow a "you can do worse" standard to guide your off-season decision-making. They shouldn't be signing or keeping known mediocrities because "you can do worse." They should be bringing in guys with a plausible upside because "they might be better."

Like Tanaka would even think of signing here. It would take another 20-30m & 1 or 2 years less for him to even think about signing here.

bap, I'm NOT defending Mayberry. He's been horrible.

I'm simply stating that there ARE worse options out there, as hard as that may be to believe.

And every MLB team knows this, which makes upgrading harder, because they'll try to hang on to their decent backups.

I'm starting to wonder whether backup players are like relief pitchers:

Hit-or-miss (pun intended) from year-to-year.

"awh: He's 93rd if you sort by OPS. But, if you sort by WAR, he's 117th on a list of 120."


So that would make him, statistically, at least, a 4th OF?

Again, I'm not defending him, he's not very good, but there are actually worse options out there.

Enough already about Abreu. He played baseball like Bob Daily played hockey. He played hard but it didn't look like it.

Funny how Greg Jeffries used to freak out when he didn't deliver but he was called selfish. You had 2 extremes and Phils fans didn't like either one. But Aaron Rowand runs face first into a wall and loses 3 months of his season. I guess that's what you have to do to be respected here.

GO A'S!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I am confused as to why we "need" to sign Tanaka.

I have no clue how good he will be. But it strikes me as a little weird to think that the one thing a 70-win team with a bloated payroll full of mediocre, aging players *needs* to do is to spend over $100 million on one guy they've never seen pitch before.

I won't complain if we do bring him in. I support bringing in talent from anywhere possible. I just don't really see it as some sort of necessary, franchise-saving move, and am confused as to how anyone does.

Any and every team interested in winning would want an elite pitcher that costs no draft picks or prospects in trade.

Jack: It won't save the Phillies' 2014 season, but you don't get many opportunities to acquire a 25-year old high-end pitcher without having to give up anything except money. And there aren't many teams in baseball who need 25-year old high-end players as badly as the Phillies do.

bap, exactly. I favor them being the high bidder for Tanaka. Why not?

I disagree with CS's rotation if that happens, though.

IMO it would be

Lee
Hamels
Tanaka
Kendrick/Faunandez
Faunandez/Kendrick

(The reason I flop KK/Faunandez is that I am of the opinion that Faunandez may outpitch Kendrick this season.)

MAG to the bullpen, and Pettibone stashed in AAA.

Signing Tanaka would also give the Phillies a dynamic duo at the top of the rotation after Lee retires (or moves on) just like they currently have, and they'd be well positioned at the top when the next group of young talent hopefully rejuvenates the franchise.

The Hamels and Lee contracts are a clear indication that the Phillies do "get" that it costs money for top pitchers, so we cannot state that they're cheap or are not willing to spend. The original MAG contract is also an indication of that.

But are they willing to spend on Tanaka?

Jack - Hopefully, and this is by no means certain, they have seen Tanaka pitch. There is lots of video on Tanaka at the very least, and knowing the guy might be posted, you'd think any major league operation in need of young pitching would have sent a scout or two over there sometime.

Saying that, it is certainly possible that this Phillies regime may not have sent any scouts, and it's also possible that they don't have a high speed internet connection to watch the videos of him pitching on the interweb thingies.

The level of sophistication of the Phillies is on par with most high school teams. Just look at their crack analytics and medical staffs.

But as has been stated above, they are a team in need of young pitching as much or more than any team in baseball. Were the player coming from Japan a position player, the same thing could be said. And that player should be signed also.

I do not expect the smug and intelligence-challenged Phillies to make a serious bid for Tanaka. However, I did not expect them to make an aggressive bid for MAG and was pleasantly surprised. Let's hope I am surprised twice this offseason.

"(The reason I flop KK/Faunandez is that I am of the opinion that Faunandez may outpitch Kendrick this season.)"

Are you confident enough in that prediction to make an Internet bet? Because I would bet on KK & would do so with considerable confidence.

Tanaka at least makes the season initially interesting which is something you can't say right now.

Signing him would be even more surprising than when they signed Lee or traded for Halladay.

Yo, amazingly, a new thread!

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