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« Several options for Phillies to fill outfield vacancy | Main | Bench bats should also be a priority for Amaro »

Thursday, November 07, 2013

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You have to find out what the asking price is. Brown, asche, two other pitchers? And after that deal still be able to upgrade your offense. When the team is in this condition everything has to be on the table.

"... the Phils proved in 2011 that they can fall short even with three ace pitchers performing at peak levels."

What a foolish thing to write. The record-setting 2011 team was a great success, perhaps the best in franchise history. You build a team for the 162-game regular season. The most a team can do for the post-season is to have a strong rotation. After that, it's up to the gods.

Just as with Stanton, I don't see how the Phils could get this done, but I'd trade for Price if I could negotiate a contract extension. Money should be no problem since they have over $50 million to spend before hitting the luxury tax threshold (That's assuming KK is traded; that's also excluding Chooch's salary.).

That would leave $30 million to sign Chooch, sign Josh Johnson, and add a corner OF. I'd wait until after ST to add BP help.

If they can fill #4 and #5 starters for cheap i say they can at least inquire.

CS beat me to the bunch above, but if a package starting with DBrown where DBrown amounts to say,,, 75% of the value expected by the Rays in return, then I would certainly entertain the notion. Perhaps Brown, Cesar, Aumont and Morgan - though I doubt that would be the most attractive offer for the Rays. I'm certainly happy the FO is kicking the tires here - the salary the next two years and the prospect of a very valuable trade chip the next two deadlines make this a notion worth entertaining.

You can have my answer now...Nothing, they get nothing...and I'd appreciate it if they'd toss Longoria into the deal too.

***The record-setting 2011 team was a great success, perhaps the best in franchise history.***

Completely agree...I still remember waking up at 4am so I could get down to Broad Street in time for the Parade. Hell of a season in 2011.

***That would leave $30 million to sign Chooch, sign Josh Johnson, and add a corner OF. ***

The only way such a trade works is that the FO accepts that they are blowing through the luxury tax to replace Brown AND get another corner OF...as well as pay for Price. They'd have to jump payroll up into the $200 million level at a minimum to even consider it. Otherwise, what's the point? You can have 3 good to great pitchers and lose a bunch of 3-1, 2-0 games and still not make the playoffs or even break .500.

rubism - the bizarre notion that an ideal team consists of 6 wealthy aging stars and 19 AAAA types.

The idea of trading one of your better offensive weapons in Brown (as sad as that statement is) after team was historically bad offensively to improve pitching is just ridiculous...and thus it is something that Rube will likely consider because well, its Rube.

Yes, committing $60 million to the Top 3 of the rotation is a great idea Rube...especially when you already have massive holes offensively and one of the worst bullpens in baseball. No way that would backfire.

Sure, Price would be great.

But as CS points out, at what cost?

What's the point of adding Price if they have to give up so much young talent that they struggle to fill holes elsewhere on the roster?

so the phillies shouldn't do their due diligence according to nepp. might as well just fold up the team.

"Rosenthal notes in the article that it is unlikely a deal gets done because Ruben Amaro Jr. knows that his team has multiple needs that one megadeal wouldn't fix."

this can't be because nepp and curt just said above that ruben doesn't know that.

also, stating that the 2011 team wasn't the best in history because of playoff non-success is in one word, moronic.

***this can't be because nepp and curt just said above that ruben doesn't know that.***

If you were paying attention, nepp posted that exact comment from Rosenthal yesterday.

Yes riggs, just like we look back at those great teams that won 101 games in 1976 and 1977 instead of the 1980 WS team.

***so the phillies shouldn't do their due diligence according to nepp. might as well just fold up the team.***

Of course they should and I never said otherwise. But, on the surface, based on the salaries involved, holes in our roster, etc, this doesnt look like a good fit unless they're giving him away...something that isnt likely.

NEPP, Mike Schmidt has even publicly said that the '76 - '77 teams were better than the team that won the 1980 WS.

IIRC, he said the '77 team was the best one he ever played on.

Consider it done! RAJ can't help himself when it comes to signing another big name pitcher.

Yes he did...and that's great. That doesn't make a difference when it comes to remembering winning clubs.

Just like lots of those 1990s Braves clubs were great but they probably recall the one that won the WS more fondly than the ones that fell short.

Just like if you asked Mariners fans (assuming you could find some) if they'd rather win 116 games and not even make it to the WS in 2000 or win 90 and win it all, how many do you think would take the 116 win season of a WS victory?

I'm not implying or stating that the 2011 club wasnt the best on paper or the most talented we've had in the recent run....they likely were. Just like the 09 club was better than the 08 club from a talent standpoint too...or the 2010 club for that matter. I'm just saying that that's fairly irrelevant in the long run.

ah, you are talking about memorable teams and not best teams. the best teams don't always win because the playoffs are a crapshoot.

the goal should be to make the playoffs every year as to give your team the best chance to become memorable in the postseason. it doesn't mean they're the best teams, it just means they got hot at the right time.

but 2011 in your eyes wasn't a good team becuase they didn't have postseason success. that's what you stated above.

2011 was a good team in my eyes...I just think that's irrelevant given that the goal in sports is to win a championship. They were good club and we all recognize that. It simply doesnt matter.

I say get it done - blow the lid off the cap - who cares - I want the best team, not the most cost effective - we're here to win on the field not win the most bang-for-the-buck Billy Beane award. If you can get Price you do - simple.

All Corey said was that "they fell short" in 2011. Why are people getting angry about that. It is a fact. They didn't win the World Series. Therefore, "they fell short."

No idea...it was a factual statement yet some people are upset because that was the best team ever!!!!

Well, the best team ever fell short when they choked in the playoffs...deal with it.

If there were some way to make a deal for Prince centered around Biddle/Ruf/Ashe without having to include Franco or Brown, I'd say go for it. However, the chances of that happening are very slim to say the least.

Prince = Price (obviously)

If it's true that Amaro has interest in Price, I bet that means Lee could be dealt

Ooh...do any clubs have a muleheaded French Canadian reliever and/or a deaf OF available?

It would actually make some sense, assuming you don't have to give significantly more than you get back for Lee. Maybe put Franco or Asche in the mix.

The acquiring team will owe Price 2/32 or so for his final two arb years, and/or go nuts with a huge extension. Whereas a team on the cusp can get Lee (the better pitcher) on a three-year commitment. There's risk of decline, obviously, but there's also some worries about Price's velocity declining already.

And since Price would be about $12-14M cheaper than Lee this season, the Phils could eat salary to improve the return.

2011-2013 bWAR:

Cliff Lee: 20.4
David Price: 12.5


Such a swap would work out much the way the last Ace for Ace swap worked out for the Phillies...they'll need to acquire/sign another SP to make up for the gaping hole left in the rotation.

"Gaping hole" is a bit much. It's a slight downgrade for 2014 with a good chance to be a huge upgrade thereafter.

Well, we kinda have a gaping hole right now after Lee/Hamels so I dont see how its not accurate given that.

Swapping out Lee with Price improves the top of the rotation on a long-term basis (in theory at least given their ages) but it does nothing for the 3-5 part of the rotation.

That's all I'm saying.

I'm just talking Lee/Price, not the rest of the rotation or the team.

But now that you mention it, owing Price around $13M less this year could only help in bolstering the rest of the rotation.

Personally, if it were possible, I'd much rather have Price AND Lee, not one or the other.

I would, too, but not at the prospect cost.

If we're keeping Lee, I'd rather just spend money on a Tanaka (pipedream), Santana, or Garza. That costs a second-round pick at most and gives you a puncher's chance through the Lee/Utley years.

Dealing for a bat is not the answer. How about Price to the Nats? Forget the Phillies for at least another 6 years. Rizzo is working hard for another stud pitcher.

(Combined with other moves, of course)

Are people really going to discard the six-month regular season as meaningless from a fan perspective? If that's the case, why don't you just stop watching from April-September and pick up in October when the games "mean something"?

This is talk-radio level stuff. We're baseball fans from April-September and if you didn't enjoy that six month stretch more than any other season in memory, then that's unfortunate for you. Because you're probably not going to root for a more successful Phillie team in your lifetime. Choking in Game 5 didn't wipe that success away.

If Rizzo wants to go out and get another 'stud pitcher' like he did last offseason when he spent $13 million on Dan Haren, I strongly urge him to do so.

If some other team could trade for Lee, why wouldn't they just trade for Price instead? Unless you think the Phils should eat some of Lee's salary?

Going all in on pitching when you have offensive issues rarely works out...I'm not really that worried about the Nats for doing that.

I hope Rizzo tries to go all in...fastest way for that franchise to fall apart long-term.

If Amaro trades for Price (and I do believe he is very interested given his strong preference for starting pitching and the fact he went out of his way to say the other day acknowledging that a single big acquisiton wasn't enough), there is no way he trades Lee.

It would go against almost everything he has said and done here as a GM. This time I would agree with Amaro too. It would be as foolish when they acquired Halladay and traded Lee.

Trading for Price would be a 'go for broke' strategy by Amaro & Montgomery. Don't think they have enough or the right MLB pieces to interest the Rays either although Brown & two other strong prospects including a starting pitcher would be tough to turn down.

Not against trading Brown either mainly because I think he has limited additional upside at this point due to his defensive limitations (he sucks at judging a ball off the bat and simply takes poor routes to balls), baserunning limitations (improved a bit last year but is never going to be a 20-30 SB guy), and ability to improve much more vs LHP.

Also the looming question of his leg injuries/health too.

If the Phils do trade Brown, they need to get a difference maker like Price but if the Phils didn't trade Brown all of this time and Amaro wants to win next year (along with his strong preference for corner OF power production), I don't see almost any scenario where Brown gets moved this offseason.

Jacoby Ellsbury has "illustrated that he's a highly durable athlete," according to Boras. The agent explained that people running into Ellsbury, which caused his two major injuries, has nothing to do with his durability. Ellsbury is "a game-changer for a lot of franchises," as the importance of leadoff hitters has increased as power has declined. Boras says a player of Ellsbury's caliber is typically locked up by his team and does not reach free agency. I projected a seven-year, $150MM contract for Ellsbury in my recent free agent profile.

Yes, that's why he's averaged 96 games a year over the past 4 year...he's an Ironman.

Boras also called Choo a premium defensive outfield at the corners.

Say what you will but he's an awesome agent that fights for his clients.

If money were no object (ie they were willing to spend over the luxury tax), trading Brown for Price and then signing a couple corner OFs would be a way to go.

If money were no object.

"Going all in on pitching when you have offensive issues rarely works out...I'm not really that worried about the Nats for doing that."

The Nats, for all their first-half offensive woes, ended up 6th in the NL in runs scored. To my mind, 2013 was probably just a blip & they're still the favorites in the NL East heading into 2014 -- although that could change depending what the Braves do in the off-season.

Iceman - To say 2011 is more memorable then 2008 is ridiculous. You play the game to win the World Series. He didn't say they were a bad team. He said they fell short. Which they did. It is a fact. No one is saying they had a better team in 2008 then 2011. Just that in 2011 they had a good rotation and they didn't achieve their goal.

Even if the Phils really wanted Price, I doubt they'd be able to offer the best package for him...Just not much in the way of valuable young assets in the organization. Same reason they won't be able to acquire Stanton, despite his status as Rube's (latest) white whale.

Adam: I'm talking about the 162-game experience. Obviously 2008 was more memorable, entirely because of October (the regular season was frustrating in many ways).

From April-September, the 2011 team was a ruthless killing machine, winning every series and coming through in close game after close game. They didn't give us the October memories that the 2008 team did, and for that it's certainly less "memorable." But if you didn't get any joy out of the 6-month stretch of total domination from the 2011 team, then just stop watching regular season baseball, because that's the kind of stuff only Yankee fans get to experience.

Exactly, Chris...which is why all this is just fun but meaningless conjecture.

Though, Franco, Biddle and Brown would be equal to any other offer they'd likely receive. The problem is they dont need Franco, they have Longoria. They could put him at 1B to solve their perennial 1B issues but honestly, TB doesnt see that as an issue and they've never budgeted money for 1B because they know its the easiest position on the diamond to fill. Also, Franco's value as a 1B is not nearly as high as if he stays at the hot corner.

Also, that trade would suck for our system and our team long-term.

Iceman, 2011 was plenty of fun while it happened. However, when I look back, I have a ton more fond memories of 2008 and always will. Maybe if the team had more than 2 WS championships in the past 130 years, they wouldn't be quite as meaningful...say if we were the Cardinals or Yankees.

Of all the OFs who were mentioned the other day I am surprised that Byrd was overlooked.

He is exactly the kind of guy I could see the Phils ending up to play RF next year because of his availability to a 1/2 yr contract at moderate dollars and his willingness to sign to Philly.

Huge, huge risk given his inconsistency and age. Worth a shot on a 1 year deal though. I wouldnt be shocked if the Pirates bring him back too.

NEPP - Yeah but I just don't see the Phils spending up the luxury tax let alone exceeding it.

I still think their payroll will be slightly lower which basically means the Phils can make one larger FA splash and then more complementary signings which a Byrd would fit into.

Yeah, pretty much how I see it too.

David Murphy is another guy I would add to that list too as a 'buy low, 1-2 yr contract' and I would like as a possible platoon guy with Ruf in LF.

I bet Byrd ends up somewhere close to what Ross got (2 yr/$15M) last year but a lot of that depends on where and how much some of the 1st-tier guys get.

Rather the Phils sign Byrd though than Morse who is a broken-down bum who is horrendous defensively, doesn't walk much, and has never played more than 146 G in a season.

Only makes sense to go after Price, with the Domonator if you then turn around and sign Choo to take his place and probably another corner outfielder, preferably right handed (Cruz?) as well (so Ruf can play 1st when Howard gets hurt). That'd be a competitive team (with a bullpen piece or 2, a catcher, and some bench work thrown in)

Revere
Utley
Choo
Cruz
Ruf/Howard
Chooch or Salty?
Rollins
Asche

Lee
Hamels
Price
MAG
KK

That's competitive even if Howard doesn't bounce back. Doable under the tax? eh.

That'd be a massive payroll but it would be competitive on paper at least...assuming the bullpen doesnt totally blow.

Conservatively, figure on AAVs around the following:

Choo: $18 M
Cruz: $14 M
Price: $13 M (arbitration estimate)
Chooch: $7-9 M
or
Salty: $10-12 M (guessing something like 4/44 for him)

So figure something in the $52-57 million range added to the payroll. Definitely puts them over the luxury tax given the current estimate of $139 million...they'd be around $191-197 M range before 40 man costs/benefits...so about $210-$215 million for a luxury tax calculation.

NEPP: well with Howard as essentially sunk cost at the moment. . . If you could count on him for $25m production (or even $15m in production) you wouldn't have to go get as much for the lineup.

Isn't the $139 figure including JMJ, Frandsen, KK, Chooch and all arb-raises? If so, then we don't double-count Chooch, we probably don't tender JMJ (and possibly Frandsen), and it's possible we get KK on an AAV slightly lower than his arb numbers for a 2-year deal.

We'd still be over the CBT, but not by that much...

Also, benefits + 40-man tends to be about $7-10MM, if I'm remembering right, not $12-18MM.

I would be completely for expanding payroll like that...unfortunately I am not David Montgomery.

Before anyone jumps on me, I simply estimated the following deals for those guys:

5/90 for Choo
2/28 for Cruz
1/13 for Price...his arb estimate
2/15 for Chooch (probably low)
4/44 for Salty.

With today's small parks, you cannot succeed in the post season without an offense. Starting Pitching alone cannot do it. You need some semblance of the whole package. Rotation, Pen, and Bats. And then you need to get hot at the right time.

The Phillies Rotation has some holes but could be OK with Lee and Hamels at the top. There is a shortage of good Bats in the lineup. The Pen is very weak.

Adding Price before fixing the Pen and the lineup is a mistake.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/accepting-dead-money-in-free-agent-contracts/

Good piece by Cameron over at Fan Graphs on long-term contracts for FA. It leaves out a few areas he could have looked at addtionally but it is a good article.

It doesnt include Chooch as he's an unrestricted FA and I made it $12-18 because we still need bullpen help even with those moves and I thought some of my estimates were on the low side.

It does include KK, JMJ, Frandsen and all the arb eligible guys though...as we either need to bring them back or replace them via FA which would cost nearly the same.

I'm trying to be as fair/objective as I can on the estimate and I'm not arguing against it in any way, just laying everything out there for the discussion.

So, we're a ways off from being competitive in 2014. We likely don't have the budget (nor is there the FA talent) to spend our way into competition, and our farm is already bereft enough that we'll almost always be outbid in the trade market, and we can't afford to give up what little assets we have there to begin with...

Couple that with our $ being tied up in aging players likely to further decline and it sounds like a situation that perfectly describes a "rebuilding year(s)," yet we have a GM on the hot seat who is unlikely to entertain that notion.

I really don't see what the optimal solution is this off season, but it's clear that the first order of business needs to be the FO determining whether they're investing to be competitive next year (which will likely mortgage the farm/future), or the converse. I don't see how we can find a "win/win" that accomplishes both, unless there really are teams out there dumb enough to give up something of value for the likes of Aumont, Gillies, et al...

Almost eerie how NEPP's comment rings true - "I hope Rizzo tries to go all in...fastest way for that franchise to fall apart long-term."

At least we got a World Series out of it. But, yeah, RAJ has essentially created the precedent that Rizzo, or any other GM that's 'on the cusp' would be crazy to emulate if they're at all concerned about sustainable long term success.

Maybe you could live with a guy not quite as expensive as Choo if you are brining in Price and Cruz. FA this year doesn't really have a 2nd tier though. It's a couple expensive guys and some bums.

For the bench, I'd love to see Rajai Davis brought in if we are going to replace JMJ. He might try to get a starting gig with a 2nd division club though. Same with Kelley Johnson as a super-utility guy. Another guy who might get more at bats somewhere else.

So by AAV we've got:
Howard: 25
Lee: 24
Hamels: 24
Utley: 13.5
Papelbon: 12.5
Rollins: 11
Adams: 6
(116)

Brown: ~0.5
Revere: (projected) 1.5
Ruf: ~0.5
Galvis: ~0.5
Kratz(?): ~0.5
Asche: ~0.5
Hernandez: ~0.5
Lerud: ~0.5
Martin: ~0.5
Stutes: ~0.5
Savery: ~0.5
Bastardo: (projected) 2
Diekman: ~0.5
DeFratus: ~0.5
Rosenberg: ~0.5
Aumont: ~0.5
Horst: ~0.5
Robles: ~0.5
(11.5)

So there's 25, for a total AAV of 127.5. Assuming KK's in the 6.5 range, that sets it at around 134.

As for the BP, yes, we need more, but I don't think that should be counted before any signing is actually done. Relievers are an expenditure, but that valuation puts our additional BP expenditure at around $5-11MM, which I think is very much on the high side (and would also slide some of the $134 into 40-man costs, thus reducing the additional expenditure there).

They fell short in '11 for 2 reasons. 1. Lee blew a 4 run leead and 2. They didn't hit the rest of the series.

If RAJ wants to bring in another stud pitcher, so be it. He's gonna do it. But he better fix this offense too.

Also, I suppose the reason for not exceeding the CBT might be important as well.

I can't imagine the Phillies don't have insurance on all of the deals in the top of that list. As such, they weren't paying Howard $25MM every year he was injured, but only a pro-rated portion thereof. Same goes for Adams' 2013 (and 2014?), or any time lost by Utley to the DL in the coming years.

It's only if they really care about adhering to the CBT threshold from a baseball or parity viewpoint that they need to worry about that. They'll be getting (and have gotten) significant portions of the Howard/Adams/previous-Utley contracts back already.

FWIW, sometimes a guy has to miss an entire season for the insurance policy to kick in...that was the case with Arod in 2013. So there's a good chance they didn't collect anything. Also, teams cant get insurance for pre-existing injuries or guys with long injury histories so its very possible that Adams' deal wasn't insured given his injury history...I also almost guarantee that Utley's deal isn't insured as a result of that as well.

Adams' injury is apparently distinct from the one that hobbled him before (I'd bet that there's a court case we didn't hear much about on that subject).

It is possible that the insurance is geared only around total season-loss, but that strikes me as very poor insurance. I would think that higher premiums might net them a better policy there - though I have no idea if the Phillies did/would spring for that.

I'm just throwing it out there because he was older and has had repeated injuries in his career...he may very well have been uninsurable.

"he may very well have been uninsurable"

I nominate this for the subtitle of the 2013 Philadelphia Phillies Yearbook.

Honestly Amaro should just send some guys to Everglades this offseason and try to find the Fountain of Youth.

Sure the Phils will make at least 1 or 2 foolish FA that would be 4x-5x times the cost.

phillibuster- your estimate doesn't include MAG and whatever his AAV adds to that total.

CRD: True. That's $4mm AAV, but he and KK bump two of the 0.5s off the 25-man, so we can say it's 3, for a total of 137.

I was at the Cliff Lee game in 2011 and the way I remember it, Lee was cruising until at one point LaRussa came out and started complaining about the strike zone. After that it seemed as if Lee was getting squeezed. Maybe just wishful thinking but I still blame LaRussa for that game.

RAJ says that the Phillies "have to try to be creative" this off-season, but I'm going to go out on a limb & guess that, when the dust settles, "creative" will not be the word that springs to anyone's mind when describing the Phillies' off-season. They'll spend most of their budget just maintaining the status quo by finding a catcher -- (probably Chooch for way too many years). They'll add a cheap RH outfielder (my money's on Morse). They'll re-sign Halladay. They'll sign a few fungible veteran relievers who have red flags all over them, but can be had for relatively little money. And they'll call it an off-season. All without exceeding the luxury tax threshold.

I do recall that, which seemed particularly funny considering the Cardinals' BP was getting some pretty favorable calls.

Also, how sickening is it that "Rally Squirrel" was a serious national meme for the entire post-season?

Wouldn't consider it even for a second. His quickly as forget how the "3 aces" worked the first time. Good regular season no offense in the playoffs.

BAP: Why, again, do you think they'll re-sign Halladay at anything beyond a reasonable rate?

Because at $2-3MM with incentives, I wouldn't mind picking up Roy, so long as they're willing to cut bait (or at least send him to the bullpen/Season-ending IR list) if his pitching still makes observers demonstrate their "I just ate a lemon" face.

BobbyD: Unfortunately, you have to plan for the full 162 before you can even consider the playoffs.

Having an offense that wins you a best-of-5 is great, but less useful when your pitching puts you at 4th in the division.

BAP, that sounds like a pretty good plan. If they can stay healthy and produce, I think we have a real shot.

I'm all for "doubling down" on pitching, but only if there's a legitimate, organic plan to improve the offensive ineptitude we've grown accustomed to as well.

And doing both costs money, luxury tax or not. And since it does, my guess is that BAP's scenario is the odds on favorite to play out.

Does any team have an "organic plan" to improve offensively other than wait for prospects to pan out?

I mean, the past two years we traded - either in part or wholly - pitching for position players. Whether that was Worley+May for Revere, or Pence for Cosart+Singleton (the latter of whom didn't really set the world afire in AAA this year).

"Because at $2-3MM with incentives, I wouldn't mind picking up Roy, so long as they're willing to cut bait (or at least send him to the bullpen/Season-ending IR list) if his pitching still makes observers demonstrate their "I just ate a lemon" face."

Along with thinking it's a foregone conclusion that Halladay will be re-signed, there's still a small sect of conspiracy theorists that think a guy coming off shoulder surgery, harboring a mystery illness, who has shown no signs of being able to pitch competently in two years, will command a contract more than the risk-free value you mentioned.

I don't think he's even going to get that kind of offer (I think he's done) but if that's what it takes to get him, it's hardly a mistake to give it a shot.

Iceman - Just go look at what FA starting pitchers have gotten the past 2 years. Floor has been $4M and up.

"Why, again, do you think they'll re-sign Halladay at anything beyond a reasonable rate?

Because at $2-3MM with incentives, I wouldn't mind picking up Roy, so long as they're willing to cut bait (or at least send him to the bullpen/Season-ending IR list) if his pitching still makes observers demonstrate their "I just ate a lemon" face."

Ah, I'm glad you asked. And I have a multi-part answer at the ready. First, I am one of Iceman's conspiracy theorists who believe that the Phillies will pay him more like $6M with incentives. Second, even if it's $2-3M, I don't believe RAJ is capable of admitting a mistake and cutting bait on a player until some time deep into the regular season when that player has already been permitted to do enormous damage on the field.

I mean, I remember awh assuring us that it was ok to take a flier on Delmon Young because it wasn't like he was guaranteed a starting spot over a better player; if he stunk it up, he'd just be benched or cut. Well, 291 PAs later, awh was right. And Roy Halladay comes with far more cred than Delmon Young, which means it will take far more ineptitude to get him out of the Phillies' starting rotation.

MG- here's Halladay's FA profile:

-Entering age 37 season

-Last two seasons: 77 ERA+, 2013 ERA well over 6

-Underwent arthroscopic shoulder surgery in 6 months ago. Came back and walked 18 guys in 27.2 IP, pitching well under 6IP per start

-Season ended with a 0.1 IP performance after which he revealed a mystery illness he's been dealing with

Explain to me why you think someone will give a guy like that more than 'the floor' for FA starters, and what medical staff would ignore the illness he's talking about when giving him a physical (no Phillies medical staff jokes, even they aren't that stupid).

BAP- if they signed Halladay to a one-year, $3ish million deal with incentives, are you worried they might not make the playoffs? What deserving young starter do you think he'll keep out of the rotation the first few months of the season before he completely tanks? I'm curious as to what the concern is here.

My concern: I don't want to remember Halladay the way many remember Carlton. That's pretty much it. Past that, there's basically no risk involved here. And if his illness is miraculously cured, the ceiling is quite high for the dollar value we're talking about.

Medical staff question and whether Halladay will pass a comprehensive physical exam are different issues than what he will command.

When guys like Marquis and Pelfrey are got $3-4M with some incentive-upside last offseason, yeah I do think Halladay with his pedigree alone will command that and likely a bit more.

I'm not sure what more amusing. The stanton $hit or price talk. Guys really these will never happen move on.

The same front office that extended Ryan Howard for five years, two years before he became a free agent is certainly capable of over spending on Roy Halladay, especially considering their general manager's public display of affection over the last 4-5 years.

Hopefully, this is just a negative view point and Amaro actually has some sense not to overpay on a low risk/high reward guy like Halladay, but would anyone honestly be that surprised if they did overpay? I understand the circumstances in Howard and Halladay are extremely different, but it speaks to the lack of foresight and critical thinking the Phil's brass has shown in recent years.

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