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Monday, November 25, 2013

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Dont worry, he'll be back in 2014...because Rube has no other options and doesnt know how to evaluate players. Thus, the known option will be what he goes with. Considering you're looking at a $2 million or so player spot, you could probably find something at least as "good" on the FA market for that.

Well, we could have kept Greg Golson...

Since Mayberry was worth -1.1 WAR in 2013, does that mean his value on the open market would be -4.4 million?

Should he technically be paying the Phillies to play for them?

I'd rather have kept Golson. We could have just cut him that year and be done with it.

Instead we got Mayberry and he was able to fake it just enough in 2011 to "earn" the right to make our 2012-2014 teams worse than what they'd be without him.

I've defended Mayberry in the past, but this team should upgrade where ever it can. I'm a fan of Rajai Davis as a guy who can contribute off the bench and play all three OF positions. He's performed "good enough" when pressed into service for long stretches. Plus he's a terror on the basepaths.

The one thing about Mayberry's 2014 season is this:

It will be the season that determines whether he continues to play professional baseball........................................................... or not.

Chad Durbin retires................................................................................................................................................. a year too late for the Phillies... :)

Good luck, chad, and thanks for 2008!

jbird: agreed. The numbers make them extremely similar at the plate and in the field. The baserunning seals the deal to me, especially on how the current Phillies roster is constructed, which is pretty barren in terms of speed off the bench.

I really don't think Davis would get more than Mayberry in arb, and more importantly, I don't think Mayberry himself would even get more on the open market that he'd get in arb.

If Rube is going to keep Mayberry, he should non-tender him and then offer him the major league veteran minimum. He's just barely a major league talent, so that's exactly what he's worth. And if someone offers him one dollar more, you wish him well. But not in the land of Ruben Amaro, Jr, Baseball Dunce.

"Chad Durbin retires . . . a year too late for the Phillies..."

RAJ adds to his sterling track record of signing guys who are so bad that they haven't played a single MLB game since their Phillies tenure ended (i.e., Chad Durbin, Danys Baez, Brian Schneider, Laynce Nix, Brian Sanches, Ross Gload, David Herndon, John Bowker, Mike Sweeney, Nate Robertson, Paul Bako, etc.)

aksmith: in the real world, this would result in Mayberry getting a 2 year deal with a vesting option from Rube.

Yeah but if we do that, we risk "losing" Mayberry...we HAVE to offer Arb and we HAVE to pay him approximately $1.7 million.

The 2 year deal is the possibility that terrifies me.

If our bench at the moment is this:
Utility IF #1: Freddie Galvis
Utility IF #2: Cesar Hernandez
4th OF/LHB Bench Bat: ???
5th OF/RHB Bench Bat: Darin Ruf
Backup C: ???

Then we have a bit of problem. Mainly that, if Darin Ruf's going to takeover the job of RHB bench bat, Howard's platoon partner, interleague DH/1B, and spot-starter in LF, we still need a 4th OF who's a competent defender and a LHB bench bat. (Unless the Phils are willing to use the backup C as the LHB bench bat.) As Rajai Davis is RHB with a grotesque platoon split, it seems unlikely that he'd work as the go-to PH option against RHP.

When I look at the available FA pieces for a competent OF defender at all three positions who's either LHB or has inverse splits, the one guy I keep coming back to is Chris Dickerson. He grades out as a slightly above-average OF defender (in admittedly tiny sample sizes) by both Fangraphs and B-Ref, owns a career .264/.341/.423 line in 607 PA against RHP, and is a plus baserunner. To illustrate such, he's coming off of a down-year that witnessed a .238/.266/.400 line in 109 PA, he was still good for 0.5 fWAR and 0.3 bWAR due to his glovework and baserunning.

The best part, though, is that he should cost about half of what Mayberry will earn in arbitration. If even that. He seems an excellent buy low opportunity, and would likely have no qualms about playing in Philadelphia, as the Phils' 4th OF is probably going to get another 300+ PA the coming year.

It was fine to bring Mayberry back last year because he was making slightly over $500k. He stunk last year though in all phases of the game, is a strong candidate to be a 'AAAA' at this point given his age & stats, and yet Amaro is going to bring him back at close to $2M.

Oh, yes, I did forget one other little bit of upside which Chris Dickerson has: A career 10% walk rate. For a club that badly need on-base skills, adding a bench piece like that does have its merits.

Of course, Dickerson's also got a 27.3% career K-rate and only a .144 ISO to show for it. But that's why he's a a guy who'll get paid like John Mayberry (should) instead of David Murphy.

I have always been a fan of Mayberry, but I think it is time to move on for both parties. I always hoped he would finally get that power that everyone expected he would eventually get. I think that we need a new face as the #4 outfielder on this team. I think we should take a flier on Franklin Gutierrez. I feel like I am going to get crap for this suggestion since he is similar to Mayberry. However, Gutierrez has superior defense and can easily cover all three outfield positions. Plus moving away from that black hole in Seattle could boost his power numbers. Gutierrez would be a nice compliment to Revere in center allowing Revere to sit against tough lefties. I think it would make sense.

We really don't need another CF on the roster. Hernandez will have several more months of practice under his belt and can fill that role, and Byrd can swing over there in a pinch.

If you're set on bringing in a CF, Franklin Guiterrez would be a nice option if you're not counting on him every day. The downside: he's a RH bat and will probably want more playing time than the Phils will offer. If you absolutely need a lefty-swinging, solid defensive CF, how about Nyjer "Tony Plush" Morgan? If you can't get him, bring back Bernadina or sign Tony Gwynn Jr. to a minor-league deal as insurance. At least Gwynn can go get it in the outfield, even if he can't hit at the big-league level.

Gutierrez is a much, much better player than Mayberry when he's healthy. Alas, that happens about as often as Halley's Comet sightings.

Alex M:
If somebody gives you crap for suggesting Gutierrez, they haven't looked at the FA market for folks who'd be content being a 4th OF. Guys like him, Chris Dickerson, and Rajai Davis are where we're at right now, at least for folks whose 4th OF is also the back-up CF.

My issue with Gutierrez remains the same as with Rajai Davis, though: He's got RHB and got a pronounced platoon split. If you do go with him as the 4th OF, you're either trusting that Darin Ruf can keep hitting RHP like he has for his first 300 MLB PA or cutting bait with Ruf and finding an LHB bench bat. But who's that bench bat going to be? Jason Kubel might be an option, if you're looking for a bounceback candidate.

Sorry but Byrd cannot cover Center in a pinch, I would much rather have Dom in center. I was not looking at Gutierrez as only a centerfielder he can play any spot in the outfield and he does have a solid bat.

If we are looking at lefties in the outfield I would look at Brennan Boesch or Tyler Colvin. I think both could have nice bounce back seasons and the would likely only require a minor league deal with an invite.

Kubel would be a great fit, but he's likely to be beyond the Phils' price point for a bench guy. He'll land somewhere that he can be at least a platoon starter.

I didn't mean to say Gutierrez was a bad option, by the way. I'd definitely take a run at him as a bench guy, even if that does leave our bench very righty-heavy. Maybe he'd be able to stay healthy if he's held to 200 ABs or fewer.

Colvin's a nice idea. I'd be on board with that.

Don't overlook the Stanford connection between RAJ and JMJ. JMJ will be back...

Alex M:
Isn't the point of the 4th OF to be someone who can play all three OF positions and, at least in the short-term, not make a fool themselves defensively?

As Brennan Boesch has logged 2,700+ IP between RF and LF. And owns a career -11.6 UZR/150 for his trouble. Don't we already have too many outfield pieces who're terrible defenders?

Tyler Colvin might be worth the invite, though. Never know when a non-roster invitee to Spring Training will break out. (As our new starting RF will attest.)

Juums,
Question for you are you looking for a bench bat or defense? I would like to have both but often that is tough to find. Hernandez I think will be a good defensive option in the OF soon.

If it were my show I would non tender Mayberry and Frandsen. Then go out and sign Gutierrez. Invite Colvin and possibly Fernando Martinez (tons of potential). I would make it a wide open competition in camp to see who can make the roster. An outside LH bench bat is Reid Brignac.

On a side note it was mentioned today the Royals would be willing to part with Aaron Crow, I think Ruben needs to make that call and do what it takes to make it happen. The kid is impressive.

Bring back juan pierre he was a solid player . Hard to strike out . He can pitch run , lay down the bunt , teach others how to do it . We need base runners people . Happy Thanksgiving to all .

Cesar Hernandez is a switch hitter, so it's really not all that essential that the 5th bench player be left-handed.

Garrett Jones anyone?

Juan Pierre had a .284 OBP last year.

r00b persists in valuing illusions of "versatility" over actual talent in any area, hence players like Mayberry. The average Little Leaguer would tell you Mayberry stinks, but the Phillies' GM is prepared to throw another ~$1.7 million at him. Such is the state of the team we follow.

My point on harping on the LHB bench bat is that, by orthodox lineup construction, you want your LHB bench bat to be a thumper. Cesar Hernandez, while possessing good on-base skills, is not exactly a threat to blast one into the upper deck. Given that these are the Phils we're talking about, they aren't likely to buck orthodoxy on this.

All of this, of course, assumes Ruf's going to be on the MLB club. If he's removed from the picture, it opens up a fair bit more room for experimentation.

I used to say that Rube appears to be a dunce, and people would jump all over me. I used to point out that he negotiates contracts as if his hair were on fire and the player's signature were the only source of water on earth.

I think that everyone now agrees with those two propositions.

The incontrovertible fact appears to be that for someone who grew up in the game and played it at a high level, Rube doesn't appear to have even a rudimentary understanding of the modern game of baseball.

All of this will lead to much rending of garments and gnashing of teeth for the foreseeable future. How sad for us all.

As soon as thie shadow of a major league player is gone, I will refuse to believe that Amaro is sincere about transforming this franchise. I feel the same about KK.

Rube is only looking at Mayberrys HR's. Not to say Mayberry is a power hitter but he hit one every once in a while. This is basically enough for Rube even if a players other game has faults.

To be fair to Rube, I don't think he ever promised to transform the franchise. He did threaten to get creative, and then brought back Bowa and Byrd and Ruiz and Mayberry and KK and Doc.

"r00b persists in valuing illusions of "versatility" over actual talent in any area."

I really like the phrase "illusions of versatility," as I think that is an apt description of what we see with the Phillies. True versatility would be guys like Ben Zobrist or Omar Infante or Martin Prado, who are good hitters and can play passable defense at multiple different positions, thereby allowing their managers to plug them in at any position on the field where the team would otherwise be much weaker offensively. True versatility is an incredibly valuable attribute.

With the Phillies, it works exactly the opposite way. They take .500 OPS utility infielders who can (in the Phillies' view) play passable defense at multiple positions. And then they plug them into positions on the field where the team would otherwise be much stronger offensively. I really and truly think that the Phillies fail to grasp this. They think that if Mini-mart starts in LF while Ruf sits on the bench, the lineup is better because it's more versatile.

By the way, Hanzwa & Susdorf is the best new handle to show up on Beerleaguer in awhile. It sounds like the name of an accounting firm.

bap - Or a personal injury law firm.

Better Call Saul!

"r00b persists in valuing illusions of "versatility" over actual talent in any area."

I really like the phrase "illusions of versatility," as I think that is an apt description of what we see with the Phillies. True versatility would be guys like Ben Zobrist or Omar Infante or Martin Prado, who are good hitters and can play passable defense at multiple different positions, thereby allowing their managers to plug them in at any position on the field where the team would otherwise be much weaker offensively. True versatility is an incredibly valuable attribute.

With the Phillies, it works exactly the opposite way. They take .500 OPS utility infielders who can (in the Phillies' view) play passable defense at multiple positions. "And then they plug them into positions on the field where the team would otherwise be much stronger offensively. I really and truly think that the Phillies fail to grasp this. They think that if Mini-mart starts in LF while Ruf sits on the bench, the lineup is better because it's more versatile.

Posted by: bay_area_phan | Monday, November 25, 2013 at 05:27 PM"

Good stuff and precise...

BAP - Because the arbitrator picks one side's number and because Trout's performances to date have been unprecedented, the Angels will be wise to go higher on Trout than any team would go on any other player. Hence, my point that Trout will get very large salaries in arbitration even if he loses each time. That should be obvious to those familiar with arbitration proceedings.

Angels: We offer $10 million.

Trout: $100 BILLION Dollars

Arbitrator: Well, the Angels offer is just too low for the best player on earth but Trout's number is well, um, impossible

~head explodes~

derek: But the whole point of arbitration is to make the most money that you can possibly make. And you do that either by going to arbitration and winning or by making an offer that has a credible chance of winning, thereby forcing the team to negotiate.

If you come in with an "outrageously high number" that has almost no chance of winning, you're going to end up making exactly what the team is offering -- which is exactly the outcome that the player does not want.

"Dont worry, he'll be back in 2014...because Rube has no other options and doesnt know how to evaluate players. Thus, the known option will be what he goes with. Considering you're looking at a $2 million or so player spot, you could probably find something at least as "good" on the FA market for that."

NEPP~ Exactly. Rube doesn't have anything "better" to do so why do it? As I've said. He's done. Geez. I don't even want to get started so I won't.

Is Garrett Jones really not a fit for the Phillies?

Cyclic:
If you accept that: 1) Your bench will be made up of the traditional 5-man NL bench of 2 IF, 2 OF, and the backup C; 2) One of your extra outfielders needs to be an above-average defender; and 3) Darin Ruf is going to be on the Opening Day 2014 roster, then you're led inexorably to the conclusion that Jones will not fit because he is not a good OF defender.

Jigger the inputs -- that a short bullpen is run; Hernandez can be your above-average-fielding backup OF; Darin Ruf isn't on the Opening Day 2014 roster -- and you get different results. One could make a good argument for picking up Jones, cutting bait with Ruf, and then adding Rajai Davis, Franklin Gutierrez, or your choice of other guy with that same skill-set as a trade-up from Mayberry.

cyclic: We have already have a left handed platoon-strickened defensive liability at 1B.

Nice to see the Os and As improving their bullpen for bags of balls.

Hanzwa & Susdorf ... You know, the guys sitting in the balcony cracking wise on "The Muppet Show".

We have already have a left handed platoon-strickened defensive liability at 1B.

Who cares about platoon splits & defense? If Howard drives in 100 runs the Phillies will be a success! It's true because the FO says so!

If they resign JMJr. I will be like Michael Scott when Toby comes back.
NOoOoOoOo GOD NO !

    Angels: We offer $10 million.

    Trout: $100 BILLION Dollars

    Arbitrator: Well, the Angels offer is just too low for the best player on earth but Trout's number is well, um, impossible

    ~head explodes~

    Posted by: NEPP | Monday, November 25, 2013 at 06:54 PM

Thanks, NEPP. Very astute.

Re: Mayberry. What if Montgomery likes the way he looks on a baseball field (not in any sexual way; just that he 'looks like a ballplayer').

What's worse is the 11 HRs Mayberry hit in 2013. What if Montgomery sees that and thinks: "Hmmmm. Revere hit 0 HRs last year, and we pay him the same? AMARO, GET IN MY OFFICE."

Maybe David Montgomery is like the late George Steinbrenner; except Monty is tone deaf to advice, and with a smaller checkbook than Mr. Steinbrenner. Ugghhh...

Which baseball-savvy billionaire out there wants to relieve us from the torture of this limited partnership??

Rich Dubee hired by the Braves to be their Minor League Pitching Coorinator...so he landed on his feet.

David Montgomery: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying "Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps."

NEPP rocks "The Caddy," Season 7, Episode 12, Jan. 26, 1996:

    ...The Boss takes a trip to Queens (to Constanza's parents house), and gets engaged in a discussion that baseball fans will never forget:

    Steinbrenner: Mrs. Costanza?
    Estelle: Yes?
    Steinbrenner: My name is George Steinbrenner, I'm afraid I have some very sad news about your son.
    Estelle: (gasps)
    (Costanza living room)
    Estelle: I can't believe it. He was so young. How could this have happened?
    Steinbrenner: Well, he'd been logging some pretty heavy hours, first one in the morning, last one to leave at night. That kid was a human dynamo.
    Estelle: Are you sure you're talking about George?
    Steinbrenner: You are Mr. and Mrs. Costanza?
    Frank: What the hell did you trade Jay Buhner for?! He had 30 home runs and over 100 RBIs last year. He's got a rocket for an arm. You don't know what the hell you're doin'!
    Steinbrenner: Well, Buhner was a good prospect, no question about it. But my baseball people loved Ken Phelps' bat. They kept saying "Ken Phelps, Ken Phelps."

I was a Seinfeld fan forever after.

The Yankees myriad successes allow for some parody - it's always funny to take shots at the high and mighty. The Phillies? Not so much

I nearly pissed myself the first time I saw that episode when Frank just screamed that out...WHAT THE HELL DID YOU TRADE JAY BUHNER FOR???

Which led to years of us screaming that every time Buhner had a hit during a game.

Amaro on Ryan Howard: "Having him in the middle of the lineup and producing for us is absolutely imperative. As I’ve said before, if the guys in the middle of the lineup, our veteran guys, are not producing, then it’s going to make it very difficult for us to contend. But if they are, then I do believe that we can contend and will because I think they we have some good young players around them."

My baseball people loved production. They kept saying, production, production.

BAP - So, your issue is with my using the phrase "outrageously high number", and you're saying (not me) that such a number has almost no chance of winning.

If that phrase was uttered by a Howard Eskin caller or some adolescent with his first set of baseball cards, I could understand how you might give it that interpretation.

Let me point out another possible interpretation:
Mike Trout is currently the best player in baseball, and a third season like his first two would solidify his status heading into his first arbitration year. Thus, an arbitration demand by Trout that would be outrageous for just about any other player could be winnable by Trout.

To further elaborate, I consider ARod's and Pujols' contracts to be outrageous, but they were obviously attainable.

So, no, I wasn't suggesting that Trout walk into the proceedings with his thumb up his butt demanding a zillion dollars.

Trout could probably reasonably ask for something in the $10-15 million range in his first year. Its hard to say he's not worth it given the current financial state of the game.

Trout will get more than $10 million his first year of arbitration. Though the MVP voters have cost him some money, for sure, by giving the award to Cabrera the last two years.

It baffles me why the Phils place so much emphasis on RBIs and Saves.

Saves is the the single stupid statistic in baseball and RBIs is too heavily influenced by opportunities to provide much value.

Cabrera carried his team into the playoffs playing the final 6 weeks hurt and still was a monster offensively...last year might have been a bit iffy but I think he earned the MVP this year.

It wasn't a ridiculous robbery like giving Dickey a CY over Kershaw in 2012.

NEPP: Oh I don't disagree--I probably would've voted Cabrera this year.

Just saying that if MVP voters had gone the other way, and given to Trout both years (which would have been more than defensible), he'd be in line to earn a ridiculous payday, as arbitration tends to be skewed by awards like MVP.

I can't wait to watch some more pop outs to first. Enough of this guy. He is part of the mediocre malaise that plagues this team right now.

I think Trout is a unique case that entirely skews the conventional wisdom. Also, there's a decent chance he wins the MVP this year after being jobbed two years running...along the lines of how Arod eventually won for a last place team. I think him playing for a team like the Angels (sucky, west coast) is hurting him more right now than the lack of a trophy. If he were a Yankee or BoSox, he'd be the Tiger Woods of baseball right now.

Even when I wrote $10-15 million, I thought to myself that it was conservative and that he'd easily win such a demand. I think anything over $15 million would be pushing it. For example, if he asked for $17 and the team offered $12, I'd bet on the team winning. If the Angels were smart, they'd try to lock him up through his arbitration years for something like 4/46. Figure he gets around $500K-$1M next year again if he's simply renewed and then it'd be a basically a $15 million AAV for his 3 arb years. He gives up a little cash but is instantly set for life.

Of course, he might not go for it.

Cyclic: Garrett Jones would be a perfect fit as a lefty masher off the bench. He can't play CF, but Hernandez can back up there. Jones will clear waivers and be non-tendered, so it may be a few weeks.

derek: Well, I guess this is just a semantical dispute. I interpreted the phrase "outrageously high" to be synonymous with "unrealistically high."

NEPP - Since Howard was awarded $10 million in his first arbitration year and since, in two years, Trout has already achieved more than Howard has in his entire career, I think the low end of the range is higher than $10 million for Trout's first year.


I think it's also possible that Trout's first year number could be higher than the $17 million that the Giants offered Lincecum in arbitration after the 2011 season.

Lincecum was a Super Two; so, 2012 (post-2011 season) would have been Lincecum's third year of arbitration had he not signed a two-year deal after 2009. Of course, Lincecum already had won two CY's by then. Nevertheless, Trout has some strong arguments in his favor, including that a) he is currently the best player in baseball and b) it is probable that Trout will have accumulated a higher career-to-date WAR total after the 2014 season than Lincecum accumulated after the 2011 season.

Colonel: Garret Jones can't really play LF or RF either. Therein lies the problem.

"Saves is the the single stupid statistic in baseball..."


MG, the real problem is not that it is stupid, it's that it's a statistic at all.

",,,arbitration tends to be skewed by awards like MVP. "


Jack, and isn't that a shame, and a testament to how skewed is the arbitration process?

Arb awards are influenced not by what a player does on the field, but by the votes of a bunch of biased sportswriters, many of whom don't really understand the game all that well.

He cant really, you know, hit all that well either. Jones is the classic "has absolutely nothing left in the tank" type of guy.

Unless its a very low base salary...he's never really played LF and is more of a 1B than a RF defensively.

Saves is the the single stupid statistic in baseball ...

"Holds"

Saves second. I also find WAR useless, although it at least deserves credit for aiming high.

Saves are a stupid stat but, paradoxically, blown saves are a pretty useful stat.

Dave - I even like Holds better than Saves given the artificial weight & importance applied to the Save statistic.

Stop trying to make Holds happen...its not going to happen.

ERA for relievers is a pretty worthless stat...it tells you almost nothing really.

MG: I tend to agree with you. If you're gonna have the save statistic in the first place, you need to have a complementary stat for pitchers who don't pitch the final inning. On the other hand, there needs to be some sort of change in nomenclature when it comes to "blown saves" for non-closers. My head still hurts from trying to explain to MVPTommyd why Ryan Madson's 50% save percentage as a setup man did not mean he was incapable of closing.

Blown Hold...boom, done.

I became tired of Mayberry in the spring of 2012. Now I realize that as John goes so go the Phillies. Amaro realizes this and will sign him up for a couple years to an incentive weighted contract. John will use his financial savvy in the details of this most original contract. Given this new lease on life he will perform to the specifics and be paid beyond all outsiders expectations.

Someone please fill me in on this: are teams allowed to offer an arbitration number lower than the player's previous year salary?

NEPP:
While Jones is certainly not worth the $5.3MM he'd earn in arbitration, I think it's too soon to stick a fork in him. Yes, he just posted a .233/.289/.419 line. But he's also just a year removed from a .274/.317/.516 season. At 32, 2013's horridness could be the harbinger of decline and the new normal, but it could just as well be that he had an abnormally bad year after an abnormally good one. (All told, Jones's career line is .254/.316/.458.) Certainly the guy you take a flyer on if you've got the need and the price is right.

The question is whether the price will ever be right. As we've already got a guy on staff who profiles as a thumping, below-average defensive 1B/OF who'll be making the league minimum. Jones is the better OF defender (career -4.0 UZR/150 in 2,225 OF IP; even the -15.0 UZR/150 logged in 196 RF IP in 2013 was better than Ruf's showing in a comparable tiny sample size at the same position), but the bat probably doesn't have quite as much upside and Jones's plate discipline leaves a lot to be desired. With price inflation being what it is and combined with the market for mid-tier OF options, I think Jones will likely get at least $2MM this off-season. I just don't see how Laynce Nix v2.0 is worth it with Ruf on the 40-man. (If you look at Nix's numbers from 2009-2011 and compare them to Jones's 2011-2013, they do stack up rather well: Jones gets on base a bit more and with a higher power peak, while Nix had more consistent pop and was a good deal with a glove fielder.)

NEPP - We're both just speculating here, but that's OK. In your 10:00 a.m. post, you're saying that you think arbitrators would conclude that Trout's true value is $14.5 million or lower. So, $12 million wins in your example.

My speculation is that, if Trout has another great year in 2014 and if his team's presentation to the arbitrators convinces them that Trout after the 2014 season is worth more than Lincecum was after the 2011 season, the arbitrators might conclude that Trout's true value is $17.5 million or higher. So, if Trout were to demand $20 million and the Angels offered under $15 million, $20 million would win. That's what I call an outrageous result.

I could see $20 million winning in that scenario...just depending on how low the Angels went. If they offered $11 million, I'd say the higher number would win but if they offered $14 million, the Arbitrator would more than likely take the lower number.

I suspect it'll be a moot point and Trout will get locked up for his arb years in the next 12 months or so.

Fun question: If Trout were a FA right now...what would his contract floor be?

I'd guess around 10/$300 million would be the opening bid and that even at that pricepoint, there'd be a good dozen clubs in on him. I could see a team like the Yankees or Dodgers offering him 10 years/$400 million and not even blink.

"Blown Hold...boom, done."

Problem is, the official scorer can't assume that the reliever who was brought in to pitch in a hold/save situation in the 6th/7th/8th inning would have been removed by the time the 9th inning rolled around. Even though everyone in the universe knows that, if Antonio Bastardo is pitching in the 7th inning, he won't be pitching in the 9th, the official scorer can't assume it. Hence, you can't call it a blown hold. Kind of like the official scorer can't charge an error when one out is recorded, because he can't assume a DP -- even when everyone in the stadium knows that it would have been a DP if it weren't for the defensive blunder.

Sil - The team's offer can't be less than 80% of the previous year's salary nor less than 70% of the salary of two years before.

Just get rid of Holds and Saves as both are stupid stats.

Over at the Good Phight, there's a post on Ryan Howard's health.

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/11/26/5147396/ryan-howard-feels-good-but-phillies-need-more#comments


Queing it up:

Ryan Howard will come to camp in the best shape of his life.

Trout is only 22 so, if you want to lock him up for his peak age 36 to 38 seasons, you need to make it a 16-year deal . . . aw hell, make it 17 years. With an easy-to-achieve vesting option.

Well, Amaro has paid Howard $94 million since 2009 (when he signed his first extension in Feb 09) for 5.7 Wins (bWAR)...thus, that's $16.49 million a win (we'll round off to $16.5 M). Thus, based on Mike Trout's bWAR average in his first two full seasons of 10.05 bWAR per year (we'll again round off to 10 Wins per year, Rube would conceivably be comfortable paying Trout $165 million a year. Multiply that by 16 years and I think Rube's initial offer would be around 16 years/$2.640 Billion.

They might have to run that one by the Ownership Group before offering it.

10 pounds before Thanksgiving is just a number Mr. Howard. a wee one.

Though, honestly, under Rube's rating system, Trout has never even gotten 100 RBI in a season and he's never hit 40 HRs so he likely would not make him an offer. He also walks way too much.

NEPP, Trout steals too many bases as well.

That's OK, but it's not Production™, so he doesn't value and won't pay for it.

RE: Jones, we can't expect to get a 4th/5th OF that hits lefty, mashes, and can play all three OF spots capably. All those guys will be starting for somebody. The question is, what do you see this guy's role being? Are we looking for a late-inning defensive replacement or a lefty power bat off the bench? There's an argument to be made for either, and you probably can't accommodate two guys on a 25-man roster with Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, and Rupp/Kratz taking up four bench slots already.

My guess is that we prioritize defense/speed over hitting, and we end up with someone like Roger Bernadina (if not Bernadina himself) taking up a bench spot and batting way too often against RHP in key late-inning situations.

NEPP - The player makes his demand; the team makes its offer; and the arbitrators determine the player's "true" value. If the true value is higher than the mid-point between the demand and the offer, the player wins; if lower, the team wins.

In my example, I said true value is $17.5 million. So, $14 million loses to a demand of $20 million. For $14 million to win, the arbitrators must conclude true value is under $17 million.

An interesting point is that you used a true value of $14.5 million in your example, and I a true value of $17.5 million, a difference of only $3 million. Because of how the team and the player made their cases, however, there was a swing of $8 million in the arbitration award ($12 million in your example and $20 million in mine).

In addition to MVP votes, I've heard that counting stats actually matter quite a bit in the arbitration process (kind of like HoF election).

More subjectively-designed (and confusing to explain) stats like the WARs, fips, and UZRs tend to not be as heavily-weighted, because the arbitrators generally aren't baseball people the rest of the year.

That said, value added through name recognition and "face of the franchise"-type considerations could help Trout's case too.

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EST. 2005

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