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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

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Well, we have rookies...we just need talented ones.

That's a bit harder.

Nepp thanks for the response. Yes i hear Franco is a sloth. However lets say Asche can hit .275ish with about say 10-15 HR i think that would be adequate for say a RF gig. I realize Im going out on a limb a little.

.275 with 10-15 homeruns would be terrible for a full-time right fielder, especially for someone unlikely to play stellar D or obp over .400 or steal 40+ bases. Why play Asche out of position instead of Ruf out of position? Most of Asche's hitting value comes from the context that he can do it while play a passable 3rd base.

Worley and Happ were Grade C prospects who surprised to the upside (briefly). Kendrick was rated slightly higher and has actually outperformed expectations.

Among the current crop (AA or higher), Biddle, Franco & DeFratus are rated solid prospects. Joseph was, but got knocked down by injury. Asche is fringey, but if he can indeed hit .275, 10-15 HRs and decent defense at 3B that would be a big overperformance.

Sickels had only 3 Phillies in his Top 75 prospects: Franco, Biddle and Crawford.

Compare that to what the Cardinals have produced in recent years.

Isn't this topic one over which Mr. finger is the authority? I'd like to find out what de-railed Evan Gattis' apparent runaway candidacy.

Compare that to what the Cardinals have produced in recent years.

Posted by: clout | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 09:56 AM

Unfortunately this is what makes the difference between brief runs at championship-level baseball and sustained long-term success...The Cards have drafted 5 major contributors since 2009; in addition 6 of their lineup regulars and basically half of their pitchers were drafted in 2006 or later. And they still have a bunch of young talent in the minors.

Great teams acquire and develop young talent consistently.

Chris: That is 100% correct and it is a direct product of the quality of your scouting operation. It's not like the Cardinals had a string of high draft choices. In fact, many of the best picks were after the first round.

Chris, yes, but to acquire and develop it consistently, you have to IDENTIFY it consistently.


But to listen to Proefrock's recent interview(s), the Phillies have one of if not the best scouting departments in MLB.

Really. He said it.

So, where's the talent?

They are not in the ASFL. Pitchers are getting hammered. With the exception of Rupp,no hitters either.

Yeah, as far I'm concerned there needs to be a complete overhaul of the scouting department and a re-evaluation of the minor-league development staff. But a major shake-up like this would take several years to complete, and it would also require a clean sweep of everyone in the front office...so it could be the better part of a decade to really right the ship. Oh well...I always said I'd take 10 years of mediocrity for 1 WFC, and it looks like I'm going to get what I asked for.

Thoughts on the apparent signing of Marlon Byrd?

But to listen to Proefrock's recent interview(s), the Phillies have one of if not the best scouting departments in MLB.

Posted by: awh™ | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 10:41 AM

The easy and decisive rebuttal to this is "Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez".

Done and done.

Oh, and I didn't address the develop part of your point.

The Phillies have developed two (2) quality relief pitchers in the last ten (10) years that have had sustained success at the MLB level. Two. Bastardo and Madson.

Yet, it took them until this offseason to change their minor league pitching coordinator, and his replacement was someone who was already employed in the system - so don't expect too much else.

This is not an organization that likes change, and it appears that they have fallen behind others it the areas of scouting (which includes analytics on most other clubs) and player development.

One would hope that Mike Arbuckle leaving after he didn't get the GM job wouldn't have had THAT much to do with it, but anecdotally it doesn't look good.

" and it would also require a clean sweep of everyone in the front office..."


Chris, including Dave Montgomery?

"The easy and decisive rebuttal to this is "Aumont, Gillies, Ramirez".

Done and done."


LOL!!!!

There was a brief moment, a few years, where the farm really pumped a lot of talent out:Howard, Utley, Rollins, Hamels, Madson, Bourn, Myers, even Floyd and Byrd have had productive careers. Then. . . they slipped back into the sub-mediocrity I've known them for my entire life. Like Clout wrote, Happ, Worely, & Kendrick have had flashes but weren't real prospects and aren't likely to be stars.

Phils signing Marlon Byrd? Predictable...

Signing a former Phillie who will turn 36 this season coming off a career year that is an obvious outlier to anyone who can look past the BA/HR/RBI numbers. Doesn't like to take walks, strikes out a lot, declining defense...

Sounds like a perfect fit for what the Phils like to do. I'm sure this won't end badly.

" and it would also require a clean sweep of everyone in the front office..."


Chris, including Dave Montgomery?

Posted by: awh™ | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 10:57 AM

As the man who continues to put the wrong people in these positions time after time? Yeah, including Monty.

Don't see it happening, though.

If it is the Marlon Byrd of 2013 then fine. But if it is the Marlon Byrd of 2012 look out.

If they truly are close to signing him (and I wouldn't count 94 WIP as a valid source) then this tells me they are going to spend money on pitching and depth which they need. I'd be interested to see how that plays out though.

I would also be interested to see if he is the corner outfielder or a 4th outfielder piece.

TTI - Do you think the Marlon Byrd of 2013 is anything more than a mirage?

Going into 2014, though, I can see MAG (technically a rookie) and Martin having significant full-season impact as well as Biddle & Franco having a shot at mid-season impact. Dark horse candidate for rookie impact would be Adam Morgan at mid-season.

Philly.com is saying a 2 year deal?

Byrd is one of those guys who won't surprise me if/when he fails a PED test.

I should say, fails a PED test AGAIN.

Philly.com is saying a 2 year deal?

Posted by: jbird | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:12 AM

jbird, what could go wrong?

Multiple years for an old, bloated PED offender. And a former Phillies player, to boot. r00b reinforcing his status as the worst GM in baseball.

Why? Why, God, Why?

I'm typically not one to do this, but in light of the revenue the phillies have earned and are projected to earn, they can't upgrade beyond Marlon F'ing Byrd? Seriously?

I wonder what the analytics guy they just hired had to say about this move...

I was prepared to come on here and rant about Marlon Byrd but Chris already said everything that I would have said. Only thing he forgot to mention was that the career year at age 36 just happened to occur right after a 50-game PED suspension. Pure coincidence, I'm sure.

And a 2-year deal, no less. Brilliant. Because committing to guys who are coming off anomalous seasons has worked out so well for the Phillies before (Helms, Nunez, Mayberry, etc.).

Ok, I did rant after all.

Per Philly.com it's a 2-year deal. I have no problem with this if he's a bench guy. But as the starter no way. All I will say is that they had Werth's replacement in Pence and let him go.

I hope they're still looking.

DPat: There's no way they're signing a guy like this to be a bench guy. No way.

I can't wait to hear the RAJ press conference where he lauds Byrd's 88 RBIs last season & says he doesn't care about his lack of walks.

Byrd was another "fail" by the Phillies vaunted scouting department.

They traded him for Endy Chavez, and got a .215 .243 .299 line out of Chavez in 118 PA. Then they released him and got nothing.

Byrd, in the meantime, turned into exactly what most people expected, being a serviceable but not spectacular OF. He's posted a .283 .338 .441 line since 2006.

Byrd would be fine as a bench guy, but I have a hard time believing Byrd would sign this early for a low AAV or a bench role. I would think he'd wait for the market to develop and other teams to call looking for a starter considering his 2013 rebound (his 2007-2010 wasn't bad). Which, leads me to believe the Phillies gave him starter money and will pencil him in as the front runner going into spring training. But that's conjecture, obviously.

Hopefully it's a value signing to save payroll dollars for something else...

If he's 4th OF then OK. If he's starting it's beyond absurd, although not quite Delmon-Young absurd.

"Byrd, in the meantime, turned into exactly what most people expected, being a serviceable but not spectacular OF. He's posted a .283 .338 .441 line since 2006."

Yes, the Phillies gave up on Byrd way too soon & paid no attention to all the scouting reports which said he was a top 100 prospect. But that was way back in 2005 and the Phillies learned some valuable lessons from the experience. In fact, before RAJ signed Byrd to this 2-year contract, he spent hours going through those very same 11-year old scouting reports which the team ignored the last time.

MLBTR predicted Byrd would get 2 years, $16M. Since it's RAJ we're talking about, it will probably be more like $18 or $20M.

Whatever it turns out to be, it will be a goodly amount of money. They didn't sign him to replace Mayberry. They signed him to start.

Chris: H2013 was not his career year for BA or RBI. While he did post an .847 OPS he had posted a .842 a few years ago.

I think it's short sighted to complain about this signing on November 12.

First of all, almost any move they make this offseason is not going to result in a 2014, 2015, and probably 2016 playoff run unless they seriously consider shaking things up from the front office down.

But considering Byrd is actually a halfway decent bat and fielder, something the Phillies' did not have in right field last year, AND we are yet to see what other moves they plan to make, it's sort of stupid to complain as of now.

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