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Wednesday, November 06, 2013


Despite only paying him $4MM, would they get dinged for 7MM against the lux tax?

Posted by: awh™ | Wednesday, November 06, 2013 at 11:36 AM

It would still be the $7m ding on luxury tax but the teams that would have the concern of picking up backloaded money wouldn't likely be up against the tax anyway so it would be easier to deal with.

I heard this morning that Granderson is considering accepting the Yankees qualifying offer rather than leaving via FA.

"Despite only paying him $4MM, would they get dinged for 7MM against the lux tax?"

As Juums said, yes, they would get dinged from a cap standpoint. But the only way that would impair his trade value is if you're dealing with a team that is within a few million of the luxury tax threshold & doesn't want to exceed that threshold. How many teams are we talking about who might fit that definition? There were no such teams last year. There were 2 or 3 in 2012, one of which was the Phillies. There were none in 2011 or 2010. We're talking about a tiny universe of teams. The vast majority of teams will be nowhere close to the threshold, while a couple others, like the Dodgers & Yankees, will probably be over it anyhow & wouldn't much care about exceeding it a little more.

The bottom line is that, regardless of how the cap accounting might work, being out of pocket $4M is a lot more desirable than being out of pocket $7M.

Exactly bap. Of course, it would take the Phillies far closer to the cap in 2014 so it will never happen and Rube will likely kick the can down the road a few more years as he knows he likely wont be GM when it matters anyway.

Corey, nice writeup.

I like the idea of Cespedes, but what would he cost in prospects?

I can envision a lineup that includes Cespedes and Franco, but if Franco is part of the price to get him then what's the point? You'd basically be trading one RH power bat for another, and have to toss in more prospects to boot.

...and the guy you're trading is younger a a LOT less expensive.

I don't advocate Granderson, but for what it's worth he's had reverse platoon splits in recent years

The point of a potential Franco for Cespedes deal would be a better lineup in the short term, at a position we're thinner at over the long-term than we are at third base.

Assuming the Phils are high on Asche and/or Green on the farm.

Hell no on Michael Morse. Defense is just as bad as Ruf's and his bat this stage might not be any better over the course of a season either. Essential Ruf and Morse are the same player in my mind, but with Ruf being much cheaper and younger with potential upside.

How Amaro-esque would it be to say "Ruf is not a right fielder," and then sign Michael Morse to play RF?

"How Amaro-esque would it be to say "Ruf is not a right fielder," and then sign Michael Morse to play RF?"

bap, LOL! That was funny - and the reason some things are that funny is there is a grain of truth to them.

I'd offer Cruz and Beltran basically the same 2 year deal and see which one accepts first. With Beltran, it'd probably be 2/26 and with Cruz, something like 2/22 or 2/24.

If neither does, oh well.

"Comedian: Don't you hate it when you go to the bathroom . . . and there's no toilet paper?

Homer: (Laughing) It's funny cause it's true!"

From "The Simpsons Have Cable" episode

With Morse, it would definitely be 2 years guaranteed with a probable 3rd year buyout/option if Rube is the one offering such a deal.

All the while ignoring his absolutely atrociously bad season in 2013 as an "aberration" rather than a red flag of future performance.

Although it's hard to reconcile with the fact that he's 245 pounds and totally immobile, Morse actually entered the league as a shortstop & played 55 games there in his rookie year. Even more reason for RAJ to covet him. Versatility.

Jim Thome was originally a 3B...imagine a left side of the infield with Thome at 3rd and Morse at SS.

I think, when Olney first reported that Cespedes was going to be shopped, I said that if such was the case he'd likely be the best-case scenario we could see this off-season. Cespedes is a perfect fit for the Phils: He would be being moved for pure salary relief, and the Phils have the ability to absorb the entirety of his salary without difficulty. Combined with his down year -- he slashed .240/.294/.442 in 2013 -- the cost in prospects should be low, which should allow the Phils to acquire him without doing serious damage to their still-rehabbing farm system.

Though with the way the Phils' luck has been going, Billy Beane's going to find a burlap sack of money that will let him keep Cespedes. (Or the Phils will sign Ellsbury, and we later discover that Cespedes could've been acquired for a couple of high-upside guys playing A-ball.)

yeah, Cespedes would be a great fit. I wish the Phillies would have had a chance to sign/draft a guy like that. Just poor luck that they never even had that chance and passed on it despite desperately needing a RH OF bat...

You deleted my post - why?

With regards to the Phils not signing Cespedes in the first place, just envision the counterfactual: Imagine what this place would've been like if the Phils had signed him and he put up a .294 OBP this year. There'd've been endless calls to bench him, shift Dom to RF, and FREE RUF in LF.

Of course, had we had him in 2012, things might have been much better considering. Maybe we dont implode in June that year, maybe we dont sell of Pence and Victorino for peanuts and maybe we make the playoffs.

I don't see the Phils getting Cespedes from Oakland, unfortunately. I'm most interested in buy-low candidates like Chris Young.

I tend to think Beane backloaded that deal to Cespedes knowing full well he would try to trade him after the first couple years.

NEPP: "I wish the Phillies would have had a chance to sign/draft a guy like that."

Yeah, I know.

Cespedes signed February 13, 2012.

Of course, the Phillies had Juan Pierre entrenched in LF in 2012 so they really didn't have a spot for Cespedes...and the bench of Nix/Mayberry pretty much blocked him as well even if Pierre hadn't been around. Basically his poor luck for us to already have 3 HOF level LFs in place.

I agree with NEPP on that: Beane has no problem whatsoever using folks when they're cheap and then discarding them when their price tag gets too high. He would therefore presumably have no problem structuring his deals to accommodate those types of moves.

The major impediment to shaking him loose, I think, will be the return the A's want. If they want straight salary relief and want the types of prospects associated with that -- guys in the low minors with scads of upside but who are all just projection at this point -- the Phils have as reasonable a shot as anyone of getting Cespedes. But Beane's looking for a piece in AA who projects to be MLB-ready in 12-18 months? The Phils have...what, one prospect who fits that bill (Franco), one prospect who one can reasonably hope will be (Biddle), and two more who are coming off lost seasons who might fit the definition if everything breaks right (Morgan and Joseph). If you include guys who've had MLB cups of coffee, you could throw in Hernandez and Ruf. If it's the latter that the A's seek, I'm just not sure the Phils have the right combination of depth and pieces to find a good fit.

Though one almost wishes that Beane would take Ruf, as everyone's more or less in agreement that he's a better fit for an AL team, as the AL actually supports 1B/OF/DH-types. And who doesn't want to see the Brandon Moss/Darin Ruf super-platoon at 1B and LF? (Speaking of Moss, the idea that the A's might be interested in Ruf is not beyond the pale, as Moss is about to get expensive. And, you know, the last late-blooming reclamation project of the A's who passed through Philly worked out rather well.)

I saw what you did there Nepp hahaha

The Athletics have about $52.5 million committed to their 2014 payroll right now including Cespedes...and they've been keeping their payroll pretty steady in the $52 M - $67 M range over the past 5 years (average of $60 M per year in that span) so they probably are pushing up against their internal payroll cap right now thanks to Cespedes' increase in salary along with a bunch of arbitration raises they're looking at including 5 first time arbitration eligible guys.

The As also need to sign a CF to replace Crisp who is a they'll need cash for that as well as another SP with Colon being a FA.

I really think Cespedes or Trumbo would be good additions for different reasons.

I also think it should be noted that Amaro has basically shot down trading for David Price- and by proxy Stanton- because he said he realizes the team is more than one piece away from contending.

A smarter move would be to see who the As would be sniffing around to sign to replace Crisp & Cespedes (if he were traded) and go after those players via FA...instead of trading prospects for Cespedes.

Unless of course he's basically giving him away in exchange for salary relief. In that scenario, Rube would be an idiot not to jump on it.

I agree that Cespedes is being moved for salary considerations. I inartfully made the point I was trying to make. Let me try again:

In a traditional salary dump scenario, the prospect haul is typically light, because the major benefit to the team is salary relief. However, because Cespedes is still a potential bargain at what he'll make over the next two seasons and that the OF market is thin for talent that isn't associated with draft pick compensation, it's possible that the A's will be able to demand more than the prospect haul normally associated with a salary dump. If that's the case, then it's likely another team will be able to outbid the Phils, due to the relative weakness of the Pharm.

Also, the A's exercised Crisp's option a few days, so they are not in the market for a CF.

I pretty much agree on that, Juums. As if Cespedes were a FA right now, he'd likely get more than 2/21...thus, Beane should and most likely will get 1-2 prospects in return for any trade.

CSN confirms the torn Achilles for Quinn

Well that seriously sucks for a guy like Quinn and it likely is a career threatener if not killer given that his entire game is based around his speed. Even if he recovers 90% of the way from the tear, he's still not the same player they drafted.

Huge blow to the system and an unfortunate one.

Wouldn't mind Cespedes or Trumbo if the price was reasonable...No thank you to any FA OFer with a QO, and not real interested in Cruz unless it's at a bargain. I guess I'd look at Beltran on a 2 year deal, but in all reality I don't see this team competing next year or in 2015, so I'd probably avoid the FA market altogether.

I really being so down on this team...thanks for killing all baseball joy in Philadelphia, Rube!

Well, even in straight salary dumps, the team doing the dumping still gets a prospect or two. They're just usually organizational filler or guys in the low minors with noisy tools and developmental red flags.

And there are factors that mitigate against Cespedes commanding a serious prospect haul. His 2013 was a down year and, beyond just his slash line, his offensive peripherals -- particularly strikeout rate -- were trending in the wrong direction. And Cespedes has posted 5.2 fWAR over the past two seasons: If he is going to be a 2.5 WAR/annum player for the duration of his contract, there's no much value to be had when he's got an AAV of $10.5MM.

I suspect it will come down to what the market will bear and what kind of teams would be the market for him as to whether the Phils can actually acquire him.

that's really disheartening about Quinn. I was really looking forward to see how he would rebound from the wrist injury.

Hard to see the Phils getting an impact bat without parting with at least one (and maybe both) of Franco and Biddle plus plus. And, is one impact bat really enough for this team?

I was looking forward to seeing if his offense would perk up after a switch to CF given his massive issues defensively at SS which I suspect were affecting him at the plate

What about marlin bird. In contrast to everyone else mentioned he actually works pitchers and takes walks. Signing him would allow you to spend more elsewhere as right field inst the only need.

One impact bat wouldn't make much of a differenct (it would probably be the difference between 72 wins and 76 wins at best). They'd need to significantly improve offense across the board but specifically from 1B, 3B, RF and even CF, hope Jimmy can replicate his late season OBP surge, hope Chase can defy father time for another year and hope whoever they have at C can either replicate Chooch's 2nd half or at least not kill us every AB.

And they'd need to improve the bottom half of the rotation and the bullpen. Its going to take several mid-range moves that basically all pan out for them to be competitive (ie above .500) next year.

Zolecki reported the Phils have already made offers to "several" FA's per

All of which means nothing at this point if the Phils were turned down in each case.

The Phillies are hardly a top landing place for FAs right now...especially guys that want to play for playoff contenders and/or guys chasing a WS ring.

Thus, they likely have to appeal to the players baser more money than the other clubs.

Upgrading the bottom half of the rotation and bullpen and the bench for that matter should not be too difficult. They were all terrible last year.

nepp: "I tend to think Beane backloaded that deal to Cespedes knowing full well he would try to trade him after the first couple years"

While that certainly seems like an idea Oakland would have, it's not too uncommon for int'l FAs to get the normal type of escalation in their contracts as if they were arb cases.

Darvish is the same way.

The "fun" part of upgrading a bullpen other than the inevitable volatility of relief pitching is that even the guys that were solid in 2013 could very well be terrible in 2014 so if we went out and signed another setup guy like Mujica...even if he was actually good (by far not a guarantee since he lost his own closer job in Sept), Papelbon could completely collapse and we end up with a pen that was worse than before. Since, unlike every other club in baseball, the Phillies are completely unable to develop relievers internally, it is really hard to rebuild the bullpen.

***While that certainly seems like an idea Oakland would have, it's not too uncommon for int'l FAs to get the normal type of escalation in their contracts as if they were arb cases.***

I just seems like Beane might have done it purposely given their salary constraints and his willingess to swing trades.

From MLBTradeRumors: Earlier today, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that the Phillies have kicked around the idea of making an offer for David Price, but it's unlikely to happen because GM Ruben Amaro Jr. knows he has multiple needs to address and one big splash won't fix the team. Here's more on the Phils...

Wow...that only took 5 years. Now we just have to teach him that he wont burn his hand anymore if he stops putting it into the fire.

Another tidbit: •The Red Sox, according to sources, are quietly doing their due diligence on Phillies catcher Carlos Ruiz, writes Jim Salisbury of

I could totally see that matchup occuring. They seemed to have soured on Saltamacchia during the post-season as they benched him the final few games of the WS after that terrible throwing error and they likely dont want to offer him a huge deal so a 2-3 year deal for Chooch along the deals they offered Napoli (originally before it was dropped to the 1 year deal due to injuries) and Victorino would make sense for them.

I look forward to Phils trading for Price and still being an incomplete team, and Amaro accusing the other players of 'needing to be better'.

NEPP: Well the Phillies of 2009 and 2010 and 2011 were much different than the Phillies of this year and next.

But otherwise your 5 year timeframe works out.

I am referring to the 5 years he's been GM where his sole move has been the big-splash instead of those secondary moves that make or break a club in the long run.

From LinkedIn:

Scott Freedman


Manager, Salary and Contract Administration
Major League Baseball
May 2012 – Present (1 year 7 months)

Senior Coordinator, Salary and Contract Administration
Major League Baseball
December 2010 – May 2012 (1 year 6 months)

Coordinator, Drug Programs and Special Projects
Major League Baseball
May 2008 – November 2010 (2 years 7 months)

Intern, Labor Relations Department
Major League Baseball
November 2007 – April 2008 (6 months)

Intern, Baseball Operations Department
New York Mets
January 2007 – November 2007 (11 months)

Assistant Director of Baseball Operations, Arizona Fall League
Major League Baseball
August 2006 – December 2006 (5 months)

Intern, Labor Relations Department
Major League Baseball
May 2006 – July 2006 (3 months)

Intern, Baseball Operations Department
Cincinnati Reds
May 2005 – August 2005 (4 months)


Indiana University - Kelley School of Business
Bachelor of Science (B.S.)
2002 – 2006
Hutton Honors College

Seems like more of a business/management background than a technical/data analysis one...

Good find by the way.

Meanwhile, the Astros hired Colin Wyers (one of BPs mathematical modelers) this week and they snagged Kevin Goldstein and Mike Fast from Baseball Prospectus last year.

Our MBA GM hires a business management guy to head of the advanced scouting analytical stuff. So even if they were to actually listen to him (not likely), he's not really a saber-guy...he's just a business guy that went to a sabr convention so now he's the office "expert" at that.

Is Freedman going to be the only guy or the guy who heads up a small group?

NEPP: The point is when you are only one guy away it makes sense to make the splashy move. They needed a starting pitcher in 2009 so they traded for Lee. They traded for Halladay and Oswalt in 2010.

The Pence thing was them thinking they needed one player but it was still misguided.

That is the rub with Amaro that people miss. 2013 was the first year where he actually needed to tinker around the edges instead of being splashy. He failed. That doesn't mean he fails at it for 2014. It does mean he has a higher degree of difficulty this year and needs to prove he deserves his position.

Chance Ruiz will be a Phil next year < 1%. Same for seeing Quinn in the majors in the next 3 years.
Chance Rube really wants Price > 1%.

i find it odd how posters refer to a person with an MBA in a negative connotation.

jr - you were unlikely to see Quinn in the majors in the next 3 years regardless of the injury. he was learning a new position and having growing pains.

riggs: There are a lot of people on here who have an inferiority complex because they want to prove they are smarter than a guy who went to Stanford.

this isn't a defense of amaro, the critiques of him are valid. but what does his education have to do with anything?

What does having an MBA help with when it comes to baseball analysis? That's the only complaint.

Zero reason to feel inferior as I have an advanced degree too and I went to solid scores. My degrees wouldn't make me qualified to be a GM or statistical analyst either.

solid schools...stupid autocorrect.

"Coordinator, Drug Programs and Special Projects"

So maybe he knows where to get the good stuff. I'm tired of our guys relying on adderall and Venezuelan Supplement Suppliers. Time to get into the 21st century with the designer, high-end sh8t.

NEPP: well, good management is about knowing how to properly manage people. I'm positive Freedman got plenty of training and experience in that with his MBA and will effectively manage his department. I mean sure, he has no people to manage in his one man department located in sub-basement 4 next to the water heaters, but know we have a really qualified and experience figurehead to point to when anyone criticizes the team.

NEPP: That was the best auto correct ever in the context of what you were writing.

I wasn't necessarily singling you out either because I didn't think your comment was necessarily using the MBA as an insult. But if we're being honest- there are quite a few here who do use it, and the Stanford thing, as an insult.

Stanford's team mascot is a tree. Why would anyone feel inferior to that?

just curious, but does amaro use his MBA as a reason for some of his moves? like "well i have an MBA, so that's why we signed delmon young." because that's the only reason why you could complain about someone having an MBA as a GM.

Plus, let's be honest, if Joe Morgan's daughter could get in. . .

i wonder if the phillies really have made offers out there to free agents, or its just lip service from the FO. i wouldn't be surprised by no major moves just like last offseason.

riggs: I think it's more, "look at the fancy college boy doin' sumpin' stupid. He just got no common sense" only now lot's of people have college degrees so you gotta kick it up the ladder a notch. "Look at the fancy MBA grad who can't understand advanced metrics. He doesn't understand sunk costs and his regression analysis is a mess. What a moron!"

I look at the Freedman hire the same way I look at the Alfredo signing. He's far from the best mlb-ready int'l FA to come out in the last 10 years, but hell, its an mlb-ready intl FA - its at least a step in the right direction.

And also, i think TTI raises a good question about Freedman starting a group instead of being the sole person. He seems like a good candidate since he at least is in/knows 'the biz' to start with, and hopefully can add some more analyst to do the dirty work for him while he can apply/present to the front office during negotiations.

Aaron Altherr suprisingly is back playing in the AFL despite nursing a hand injury. He was 0 for his last 15 entering today, but is 2-2 so far with a 2B and a RBI single.

Rupp continues hitting well. 2-2 with 2 2B and a walk today, up to a .975 OPS.

I'm not sure which is more unlikely - the thought that this new still wet behind the ears outside hire will affect the personnel decisions of Monty/Rube/Wade/Green/etc, or the possibility that the new kid would improve personnel moves if he had any influence at all.

@riggs: Probably some low-ball offers just so they can say they are doing something.

jbird: "...he has no people to manage in his one man department located in sub-basement 4 next to the water heaters,..."

I know Stanton won't happen, but that would make me legitimately excited. Matt Kemp would also be an exciting move. I'm a little apprehensive about all these sub .250 hitters being proposed.

Dickie, we'll see if r00b lands any of his targets.

I'm not sure they're lowball offers - they have paid top dollar and multiple years before, Ibanez and Lee being examples.

The big question going into next season is - once again - what will they get out of their highly paid first baseman?

Everything else might fill needs and holes, but if he doesn't "produce" they probably will be below .500 again.

OTOH, if he can do 30/110 and stay on the field for 140 games, and Sandberg has the stones to PH for him against tough LHRP who he has flailed against in the past, then they might actually be competitive, and by "competitive" I mean improve to an 80*085 win team.

Unless a miracle like 1993 happens, I don't think this team can improve it's run differential enough to get to the 90 wins I believe it will take to make the WC.

The downside to the new "numbers guy" is that it's an automatic scapegoat for any gambles that RAJ takes that don't pay off, regardless of whether or not Freedman even had anything to do with the decision.

Basically, I like Lorecore's "at least it's a step in the right direction" line of thinking, but only if it's not merely a smokescreen to buy RAJ more time while this guy never gets so much as a seat at the table.

Much like last year's 2013 projection was dependent on the caveat that "Howard, Utley and Halladay" all stay healthy, the 2014 projection thread will, and should be littered with "as long as Howard comes back as some form of his previous self..."

The fact of the matter is there's no one in the 2014 lineup who scares anyone. If you're betting that Ryan Howard is going to rise like a phoenix from the ashes of his younger self, good luck with that.

curt, personally, I'm more of the mindset that they need Howard to even be "passable/adequate" and even then, I think it's stretch to think they're a .500 team*.

*as currently constructed

WP - Yeah, I think they're lost in the wilderness, and the only "drama" is whether this will be a 70 win team or an 80 win team. I just hope Rube doesn't serious harm our future prospects in trying to win 80 games next year.

If I'm honest, Rube has already exceeded my expectations for this postseason as, unless I'm unaware, he hasn't yet signed Halladay to a 3 year extension. I'm cautiously optimistic!

*as currently constructed


They really need a full season of Utley too, and by that I mean 140+ games. If Utley sits once a week that's approximately how many he'll play.

Howard has to be some semblance of his former self - not 2006 - 2009 Howard, but 2010 - 2011 Howard [.265 .350 .497, 32/112] will do.

Brown also needs to stay healthy.

And - they need Chooch back. I know he's older and will be relatively expensive, meaning more than they want to pay, but they've gotten away with underpaying him the last 6 years so it's all relative.

McCann and Salty will be too expensive, Pirzynski is older than Chooch, and Chooch is the next guy on the list of best FA catchers. r00b and the FOols have only themselves to blame, because they could have locked him up early the same way they locked up Howard and Utley (twice). they're paying a market rate for Rollins and that's because they let him hit the market.

Well, IMHO Chooch is more important to this team's success in 2014 (if r00b even wants to try to be competitive) than is Jimmy Rollins. They have an adequate defensive replacement for an offensively declining Rollins, but they do not have an adequate replacement for Chooch.

They need to get better in the OF and the pitching needs to improve (MOTO).

So we'll see who they add, but right now the team looks looks this:

C - Kratz/Rupp
1B - Howard
2B - Utley
3B - Asche
SS - JRoll
LF - Brown/Ruf
CF - Revere
RF - Brown/????

In short, they're back to needing Utley and Howard to produce in order to have a chance.

Still, if the pitching doesn't improve they're not going anywhere.

10 years from now BLers will still be flogging the poor carcasses of Utley and Howard. It's already like a nervous tic.

I'm a fan of the Freedman hire. Only read a little bit about him, but it just feels like a move in the right direction.

Here's hoping!

I'm a fan of the hiring...though I dont think it will a bit of difference.

In a very small sample size, here's one reason the Rockies may be interested in Chooch:

Career at Coors Field:

.351/.351/.649, 37 PA, 5 2B, 2 HR, 8 RBI.

NEPP, it probably won't, and if that's the case, and Freedman is trying to advance the department, he'll just leave.

But it appears that they are giving into the pressure a little bit, and perhaps Freedman will assist in the acquisition of a player who outperforms the rest of the organizations expectations, and they'll start to buy in.

Who knows, but one can dream, right?

When the Phils acquired Lee the first time, that was the beginning of the transition from an offensive team to a pitching-oriented team. By 2011 when they had the Four Aces, the transition was completed and necessarily so since Utley, Howard, and Rollins were getting older and the offense had become middle-of-the-pack.

With the collapse of Halladay in 2012, the plan to be a pitching-oriented team also collapsed since it's hard to replace a Halladay, and the Phils never tried.

The team cannot now become an offensive-oriented team again without new talent that's as good as the Utley-Howard-Rollins team with a good supporting cast. It's hard to replace these guys, and the Phils have been unable to do so to date.

Continued reliance on the old guys can only mean further decline. We'll only end up beating our heads against the wall if we think otherwise.

We sure can. I also hope that they start drafting well, start making huge splashes in the int'l FA market and bust through the luxury cap.

If the Phils have already made some offer to FAs, it could only be to FAs without QOs. That's a good sign.

NEPP, well, they acquired MAG, so it appears that they might consider that going forward.

Of course the counter is that, even if they do get into all these things, they'll be the last guys to the parade, will still be at a likely disadvantage due to their inexperience, and of course, catching up to the crowd doesn't allow you to be ahead of the crowd by identifying a new market inefficiency.

So, tempered hope, then.

IMO, all this luxury tax business will become a dead issue with the expiration of the current CBA after the 2016 season.

With the TV money that's pouring into MLB, the players' union will rightfully demand that players get their share of a much bigger pie. Look for the luxury tax threshold to disappear.

I was only half joking when I said previously that Mike Trout will get a 10-year $400 million (from his hometown Phillies) when the then 26-year-old becomes a FA after the 2017 season.

Trout will become a Phillie if he marries his HS sweetheart. If, instead, he hooks up with a blonde surfer-girl, no dice.

Doesn't Trout still live at home during the offseason?

Ah, the life of the greatest baseball player in the world.

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