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Tuesday, November 12, 2013

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Byrd would figure to take over right field full time should this deal come to fruition

That's it. I am protesting the phillies. What a bunch of schmucks.

And of course, don't forget the 2nd year tacked on. Wouldn't be an Amaro deal without it.

Great start to really get the excitement going.

Another r00b rerun disaster special. Should've kept Pence.

Has the money been reported yet?

I wonder if they can depend on him being the full-time outfielder or platoon/bench bat. It's obviously too soon to know but if signing him means not signing Nelson Cruz I am okay with it. Our second round draft pick is more valuable than any of these " QO"free agents.

repost: Byrd would be fine as a bench guy, but I have a hard time believing Byrd would sign this early for a low AAV or a bench role. I would think he'd wait for the market to develop and other teams to call looking for a starter considering his 2013 rebound (his 2007-2010 wasn't bad). Which, leads me to believe the Phillies gave him starter money and will pencil him in as the front runner going into spring training. But that's conjecture, obviously.

Hopefully it's a value signing to save payroll dollars for something else...

Marlon's going to start guys. He wouldn't sign here otherwise.

I would guess about $16 mil, but knowing the Phillies FO it could easily be a bit more.

The only good thing about this post was that Jason wrote it.

So if they are playing "cheap" to date what does that say about other moves? Spend big on SP as is Ruben's style? Big trade for Jason Castro to catch?

Brown, Byrd and Revere. Maybe 6 WAR between them. If we're lucky.

Hopefully it's a value signing to save payroll dollars for something else ...


http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs.aspx?playerid=950&position=OF&page=7&type=full

2013 Babip of >.350

Glad to see this new analytics guy is being taken seriously.

From 2010-2012, Byrd averaged 276/325/393 (93 OPS+), with 7 HRs, 37 RBI, 3.5 K:BB ratio, a .318 BABip, and a .117 ISO, and his OPS+ had declined 5 straight seasons.

2013 Byrd had a 291/336/511 slash line (career high 138 OPS+) with 24 HRs, 88 RBIs, 4.65 K:BB ratio, .353 BABip, and a .220 ISO.

Outlier? Nah, clearly a breakout season. at 35. Coming off a PED suspension. Clearly.

CS: thing is they really don't need another pricey starter. They need bats and defense. Maybe they go big with McCann? Salty? or trade Brown and sign a Choo (or something)

I'm fine with a rotation of:

Hamels
Lee
Kendrick
MAG
Pettibone/FA - Biddle at mid-season

Gtown: I know....a boy can dream though.

I watched a lot of Mets and Pirates this season. Tell you what - Byrd was pretty solid. Let's hope the tank doesn't run dry for the next two years.

This team is increasingly un-fun to follow.

The only positive thing I have to say about this signing is that it prompted jw's long-awaited return as thread writer.

I would rather have signed Raul Ibanez AND Jamie Moyer to 2 year deals.

Good seeing JW posting. I have to admit I used to come here a couple of times a day, but since he stopped posting I come here maybe once a week.

Hate this signing.

What is Brown worth in trade? Jason Castro from the Astro's and signing Choo may be a solid move.

Repeat post:

awh: "Byrd, in the meantime, turned into exactly what most people expected, being a serviceable but not spectacular OF. He's posted a .283 .338 .441 line since 2006."

Yes, the Phillies gave up on Byrd way too soon & paid no attention to all the scouting reports which said he was a top 100 prospect. But that was way back in 2005 and the Phillies learned some valuable lessons from the experience. In fact, before RAJ signed Byrd to this 2-year contract, he spent hours going through those very same 11-year old scouting reports which the team ignored the last time.

If he replicates his 2013 season, this is a great signing. He had a higher WAR than Cruz, Beltran and Granderson in 2013. He's also a good defensive player with the ability to play CF.

Of course, this is a move that would have worked better a year ago (with 20-20 hindsight).

Heard the news break and my first thought was, "is this a 2 or 3 year deal?"

BAP~ If he's the starter, this is a terrible signing. Absolutely terrible. He's a cheap alternative to whom they were said to be targeting. Plus he's 36.

There is zero chance this backfires...ZERO. There is no chance at all that last year was an aberration or that a 36 year old known PED user will suddenly stop using and see a massive drop in performance going forward.

The fact that its a 2 year deal is also awesome...I really hope there's a vesting option for a 3rd year in there too because Rube is the greatest GM on the planet.

Always had a soft spot for Byrd. Talk about one of the best all-time minor league seasons - 2001 in Reading. Five-tool talent.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=byrd--001mar

Chris: His 2013 was not his career year for BA or RBI. While he did post an .847 OPS he had posted a .842 a few years ago.

I have to see the value here before I get indignant over it. On the surface it is a 2 year deal for a corner outfielder they need and a guy who doesn't cost a pick.

His 2013 was a career year for OPS+ but he did have a nice little run there until 2012. So hopefully he can meet somewhere in the middle of that 4-5 year run and 2013. If he does that, the signing is fine.

Chasing Byrd's "pretty solid" 2013 numbers is a huge mistake, but a predictable one.

Amaro is putting the nails in his own coffin.

I watched a lot of Mets and Pirates this season. Tell you what - Byrd was pretty solid. Let's hope the tank doesn't run dry for the next two years.

Posted by: J. Weitzel | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:39 AM

How'd he do in 2011 with the Cubs and in 2012 with the Cubs & Red Sox? I simply don't recall so I'm asking...

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 57s
Phillies see two years. RT @MartinoNYDN: Mets saw Marlon Byrd as more of a fourth OF option for next year, which made a return unlikely.

* * *
Kinda depressing that the Mets are wiser than the Phillies.

2 years, 16 mil. Nice one Rube. I'm just waiting for that next suspension to hit now that he's under contract.

106 hr over 12 seasons, does equate to power.

Jason, are you posting thread headers again? Because that would be awesome...

Kinda depressing that the Mets are wiser than the Phillies.

Posted by: GBrettfan | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:46 AM

Well, they already had to go through the Omar Minaya years...We're still experiencing them right now as Rube is off in dark alleys trading favors for cash apparently.

Here is what I don't get:

There were people on here saying, "Don't sign a guy like Nelson Cruz because he will be expensive and cost you a pick."

So the Phillies go out and spend less money on a guy and retain their pick.

The needed a corner bat who hit right-handed, and they got it without going after the high priced options. I don't know if it works out, but I think just passing Byrd off as a one year wonder in 2013 is completely disingenuous to the conversation, and too many people are talking out of both sides of their mouth.

Please please please let there be a vesting option for a 3rd year.

I don't know if it works out, but I think just passing Byrd off as a one year wonder in 2013 is completely disingenuous to the conversation, and too many people are talking out of both sides of their mouth.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:52 AM

Yeah, I hate when people use facts and statistics to argue for something too.

Chris: His 2013 was not his career year for BA or RBI. While he did post an .847 OPS he had posted a .842 a few years ago.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:46 AM

True...Of course the OPS+, ISO, LD%, XBH%, HR%, HR/FB% were all career highs. At 35 years old. In a season in which he also K'd in a career high 24.9% of his PAs...

And you're using BA and RBI to validate the argument in favor of his signing? Really?

$16m. . . not a lot of value there considering his age. Maybe he pulls an Ibanez and has a monster half in him before sliding into m'eh-ness. I'm going to keep my fingers crossed.

All part of the plan to do a quick, midseason flip for Endy...

And you're using BA and RBI to validate the argument in favor of his signing? Really?

Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:54 AM

Its all about Production. I have no idea what all those other things you mentioned were but I can SEE hits and runs batted in...Can you SEE an ISO...whatever the hell that is?

Saving the big money for another "Ace"

There were people on here saying, "Don't sign a guy like Nelson Cruz because he will be expensive and cost you a pick."

So the Phillies go out and spend less money on a guy and retain their pick.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:52 AM

See, this is also disingenuous...because almost everyone who made that statement about Cruz was saying just let Ruf go out there and fake it in LF.

Not commit 16 million to a guy who will never come close to matching his career year in 2013, coming off a PED suspension, heading into his age 36 season.

Cause that would be really stupid.

Just because a player happens to be cheaper than some of the other options, doesn't automatically validate a signing.

If anything, this type of 2 year deal in the single millions has absolutely killed this team over the last couple years. They all add up.

Marlon Byrd SLG:
2002-2012: .413
2013: .511

Which one do you think is more likely for 2014?

I watched a lot of Mets and Pirates this season. Tell you what - Byrd was pretty solid. Let's hope the tank doesn't run dry for the next two years. - JW
-
Cautious optimism..? Get off this blog!!!

Seriously what the f*** is the direction of this team? Are they rebuilding or what? $16M for Marlon Byrd? This is just embarrassing. It really is.

I hate Mayberry so much that it makes me not hate this move. I have problems.

If anything, this type of 2 year deal in the single millions has absolutely killed this team over the last couple years. They all add up.

Posted by: Five-4-One | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:57 AM


Ok, I'm not a fan of this signing, but what exactly are you talking about? If anything, it's the larger deals for Howard and Papelbon that have strapped the team.

The money spent is obviously a huge part of the equation, but I'm always skeptical of signing a guy coming off his best year at 35, which immediately followed his worst season the year before.

There really weren't any good choices in the FA market this winter. Simply put, don't expect Marlon Byrd to move the needle this year. Instead of winning 78 games this year, they may win 79.

It will be nice to have an actual outfielder playing the outfield for the Phillies. It's not cut in stone that he starts. I am fine with this. I think the Phillies stand a good chance of getting a lot of value out of this signing. Beats the stuffing out of who they signed to play RF last year.

He is 36 years old and coming off a fluke good year. This is a move that a GM makes that thinks they have a team that can contend with a minor tweak here and there and even still you don't sign this guy for 2 years let alone 1. This team is not a playoff team. They need to turn the page already. A signing like this is a last ditch effort to pry open a window that has been shut for the last 2 seasons. They need to start finding out what their cost controlled young players can do. This is absolutely maddening.

The upside is that Byrd played here all the way up to 2005 so Rube has plenty of old scouting reports from that timeframe that show this is a good signing. He's playing three-dimensional chess while we're all playing checkers.

I want to get upset about this, but what's the point.

The Phillies aren't contending next year, or probably the year after that. They just aren't good enough. And no amount of money spent this year will make this offense good.

At least it wasn't Nelson Cruz for $75M. Two years at $16M is throw away money. And at least he's adequate defensively.

I'm just not sure what else makes sense this offseason (and don't give me Darin Ruf!).

it's 2/16

KAS, I don't want them spending money on Cruz either but why not just pocket the $16M and use it internationally or something like that. Spending it on Byrd is just stupid. It does nothing for a noncontending team.

*** It's not cut in stone that he starts.***

LOL...good one.

I'm glad we filled the overweight outfield quota for the year.

burb: Adams, Nix, Schneider, Baez, Gload all come to mind.

They didn't damage the team terribly, but they all got a 2nd year when the market did not dictate it at all, and ended up influencing the team's decisions the following year.

Byrd will certainly improve defense. Any warm body would be an improvement on _elm_n and co, and Byrd is much more than that. But continually increasing the average age of the team isn't doing them any favors and handing out multiyear deal after multiyear deal doesn't leave very much room at all to vastly improve on the 25 man roster.

The previous post certainly outlines the biggest problem, as the only way to change the fate of this team is actually developing their own talent. I'm all for adding more talent from the Cuban and Asian player pools when it becomes available to potentially shortcut through some of the minor league process. That's really limited though.

Ultimately, the free agent market/system exists to let some well built, medium-to-big market teams try to add a big name or 2 to try and get over the hump in the short term, and to let other teams that are not as well built as they think hamstring themselves for the better part of a decade. Other than that, small market teams can fill out their rosters, make a splash here and there and hope to get lucky. Same deal really for the hamstrung teams, i.e. Phillies. So I'd take the Byrd deal over an 8 year commitment somewhere else, but it's not the difference between success and failure, and neither would anything else be this winter.

Marlon Byrd > Delmon Young.

I'm counting my blessings.

The multiple 2 year signings arent the reason they dont make big splashes but they are the reason the end up making decisions like signing Chad Durbin last year instead of Koji Uehara. Its those secondary moves that often make or break a club in the long-run.

Ruf just didn't show enough power to warrant the time in a platoon situation out there between RF and 1B. He only homered every 18 ABs. I can't wait to watch him rot on the bench while Marlon plays 150 games and Howard plays against lefties.

Joe D: So you favor the Darin Ruf option? I'm just wondering what makes more sense for this team.

Lore - I know, but 541 said those deals killed the Phillies because they added up. None of those moves in the aggregate killed the Phillies. Were they poor contracts to round out a roster? Yes. Were they franchise killers? No. I just didn't understand how they've "killed" the Phillies.

"Ok, I'm not a fan of this signing, but what exactly are you talking about? If anything, it's the larger deals for Howard and Papelbon that have strapped the team."

It's the larger deals that have hurt the most, but those mid-level 3-year deals which should have been 2-year deals, and 2-year deals which should have been 1-year deals, have hurt plenty. Ibanez, Polanco, Nix, Contreras, Gload, Schneider, Baez. And I'm not even counting Rollins since that 4th year vesting option hasn't happened yet.

KAS, I don't want them spending money on Cruz either but why not just pocket the $16M and use it internationally or something like that. Spending it on Byrd is just stupid. It does nothing for a noncontending team.

Posted by: Joe D | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 12:03 PM

Committing that 16 million to some young, international FAs would be a much better use of "throw away" money.

This signing is pointless and I wouldn't be shocked at all to see Byrd outright released at some point during the 2015 season.

Silver lining: Its Nov 12th and Rube has already given us all a clear message that 2014 will be a waste of time...we should all thank him for the early heads up and find other things to occupy our time next summer.

I'm sorry. Signing Howard, Papelbon, Lee and Hamels to massive deals has contributed more to the downfall of this team than signing Nix.

KAS, yep I'd play Ruf out there and platoon him with someone else. What is this team winning in 2014 other than the "dumb free agent moves" award? See if Ruf can hit a little and if he does and he isn't part of your long term plan then maybe you can flip him to the AL as a DH for some system needs.

Signing Lee and Hamels to big deals has contributed to the downfall of this team?

Take them off the 2013 roster and that team is probably worse than the Marlins. With a crappier future...

***I'm sorry. Signing Howard, Papelbon, Lee and Hamels to massive deals has contributed more to the downfall of this team than signing Nix. ***

The overall pattern of stupid contracts large and small are the problem...and they all stem from the same person.

Committing that 16 million to some young, international FAs would be a much better use of "throw away" money.

Amen. Signing Byrd is the equivalent of burning $16 million, & pissing on the ashes. Utterly pointless.

I am kind of embarrassed us BL'ers didn't predict this signing immediately at the end of the season.

I mean, was there a more perfect fit for Amaro's judgement of talent and perceived team need than Marlon Byrd? A RH Veteran OF who racked up a bunch of RBI's while only walking 31 times.

CHris: Where did I ever say I was using BA and RBI to justify the signing? In fact, let me give you the timeline for why I said that.

Signing a former Phillie who will turn 36 this season coming off a career year that is an obvious outlier to anyone who can look past the BA/HR/RBI numbers. Doesn't like to take walks, strikes out a lot, declining defense...

Sounds like a perfect fit for what the Phils like to do. I'm sure this won't end badly.

Posted by: Chris in VT | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 11:03 AM

That was why I used what I did to just point out in your argument that you were saying something inaccurate. But I guess it was more fun for you to ignore that and move on.

Secondly- people have absolutely not been saying to avoid QO guys because they want Ruf out there faking it. I mean if we are just going to make up things and say lies about what people have said on here why even try to have sane discourse?

And again the point is this. If you truly believe no matter what this team does that they will stink then the absolute wrong move would've been spending a bunch of money on a QO guy, and losing a draft pick in the process.

This move upgraded their outfield and bench if they are now moving Ruf to the Mayberry role. Will it make them a playoff team? Of course not. No one in their right mind would argue that. But this filled the gap of bringing in a guy and not foolishly shipping out a draft pick.

There is absolutely no way you can justify this Byrd signing. It's pointless and stupid. A move that should be looking towards a rebuild doesn't make a move like this. Thankfully the GM of this team thinks this team can actually contend. The sad part is that the only person he is fooling is himself.

A team** not A move.

Awful, lazy move that will at least hopefully facilitate Amaro's departure at the end of next season.

Another silver lining: All those fans that held onto their Marlon Byrd shirseys from 2002-2005 can once again wear them...assuming Cameron Rupp is willing to give back #29.

"I am kind of embarrassed us BL'ers didn't predict this signing immediately at the end of the season."

Totally. Right-handed. Old. High RBI total last year. Never walks. Career year in 2013. Ex-Phillie. How on earth did everyone on Beerleaguer manage to overlook him? It's the biggest group failure since the Bay of Pigs invasion.

So it seems the love affair with Darin Ruf continues. He's a joke defensively. So much so that he managed a whopping 0.1 WAR last year (Fangraphs).

But we should platoon him! (I've heard.) Great, then Ruf gets significantly fewer at bats because we face RH starters about 75% of the time.

So who is this lefty platoon bat and how much does he cost?

***It's the biggest group failure since the Bay of Pigs invasion.***

The Cuban people will welcome us with open arms and flowers.

TTI, you've established that this is a better move than spending big money on a QO player like Cruz. OK.

That doesn't mean it's a good move.

Only $90,909 per RBI, & so few of those annoying BBs. r00b probably thinks he got a real bargain. The new focus on analytics is paying off already!

Rube strikes me as the sort that refuses a pay raise because he doesn't want to pay the extra taxes involved...and no matter how much you try to explain it to him that it doesn't work that way, he still mutters something about taxes and shuffles off.

Fatalotti: Didn't argue it was.

For that amount of money, Byr'd the starter in RF. I guess they didn't want to tie up larger amounts of money on players like Beltran, Cruz etc.

You can't blame Byrd however. I'm wondering if they go in another direction & trade Brown, but then who replaces him?

I'm hearing RAJ is targeting Buck & Benoit & I'm ok with both of those guys. But Byrd's signing & if they bring in the other 2, doesn't improve the team much, if at all. I can't help but wonder if there's a trick or 2 up RAJ's sleeve.

When they said the Phillies had signed "Marlon", since r00b is the GM I assumed they meant Marlon Anderson.

Can't understand how you pay a guy who made 700k last year 2 years 16M at his age. Do the agents just laugh and jump for joy when they get off the phone with Rube? What a joke.

Where is this "Trade Brown" think coming from?

Why would we deal away our best young talent? How does that make sense?

Damn, and I just cancelled my season tickets after 10 years.

Jayson Stark says if Phils can't re-sign Chooch, their target is A.J. Pierzynski.

He'll be 37 next year.

It's unlikely Byrd repeats last year or even comes close, but "likely" costs a lot more money these days than the Phillies should be spending on free agents. With the new spending restrictions on draft picks and international signings, it's not like we have better use of this money over the next two years. Doesn't cost us a draft pick, doesn't hamstring us long term, and improves our chances next year of "everything breaks right and we steal the last playoff spot", which is all we should be shooting for this offseason.

That was why I used what I did to just point out in your argument that you were saying something inaccurate. But I guess it was more fun for you to ignore that and move on.

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 12:12 PM

Um...When did I say it was a career year specifically in BA/RBI? I said it was an obvious outlier and career year to "ANYONE WHO CAN LOOK PAST BA/HR/RBI" totals. And it is...as I and many others have pointed out over and over.

When I first heard this, I felt like this guy:


funny gifs

FWIW, it looks like MLBTraderumors hit the nail on the head with their free agent prediction concerning the money he would receive:

24. Marlon Byrd - Pirates. Byrd, 36, hit a career low with a PED suspension in June 2012. The outfielder signed a minor league deal with the Mets and improbably became their starting right fielder. He hit five home runs in May and didn't look back, mashing 24 overall between the Mets and Pirates. A two-year deal in the $15MM range seems possible. If a contract can't be hammered out with the Pirates, the Royals, Orioles, Mariners, Phillies, Rockies, or Giants could make sense.


Jayson Stark says if Phils can't re-sign Chooch, their target is A.J. Pierzynski.

He'll be 37 next year.

Posted by: Kendrick Appreciation Society | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 12:28 PM

This simply tells me that Rube learned a useful lesson last year...going Young was a bad idea. Notice how none of these guys have the last name Young? Rube's learning!!!

Secondly- people have absolutely not been saying to avoid QO guys because they want Ruf out there faking it. I mean if we are just going to make up things and say lies about what people have said on here why even try to have sane discourse?

Posted by: The Truth Injection | Tuesday, November 12, 2013 at 12:12 PM

OK... Here are three examples from one thread 3 days ago:


Fatti and Chris, some good points.

For some reason r00b and the FOols are really skeptical of, or down on, Ruf.

It's almost like someone(s) in the organization stuck his neck out internally and said Ruf would never amount to anything other than org filler.

Now that he's exceeded even their wildest expectations, it seems like someone is trying to stick him back into a box where he'll never see the light of day - just so their prediction/projection turns out to be right.

It's just very strange. I've never seen or heard a GM badmouth a player like that after then end of a season and devalue his trade stock - even if he didn't think much of the player.

Very strange.
Posted by: awh™ | Saturday, November 09, 2013 at 01:01 PM

Stop making the same mistake RAJ. Don't pay 30 times the amount you're paying for Ruf to replace Ruf with an older version of Ruf.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Saturday, November 09, 2013 at 12:25 PM

You know, I thought this was hyperbole when I first read it, then I checked the numbers...Surprisingly (to me anyway), Darin Ruf is Nelson Cruz (the '11-'13 version) with better OB skills. We're obviously dealing with sample size concerns with Ruf, but the only thing that seems to put Cruz a step ahead of Ruf is the fact that he's competent in RF, at least.

Considering how shallow the FA pool is, and what dollar amounts the Phils seem to be playing with, wouldn't it just make more sense to stick the "Not an OF" Ruf in LF and Brown in RF and deal with the crappy D in the corner OF positions? How much of an upgrade is the massive amount of cash actually going to buy you?

Posted by: Chris in VT | Saturday, November 09, 2013 at 12:52 PM

Was just thinking about this, and I felt like getting it off my chest:

Stay away from Nelson Cruz. Over the last three yeas, yes, he's been an above average bat, though in 2011 and 2012, he was barely above average. Now he's 33, coming off a PED suspension, and he's been awful in the field for the last 3 years and poor on the base paths.

Or, to be more succinct, he's been....Darin Ruf for the last 3 years.

Stop making the same mistake RAJ. Don't pay 30 times the amount you're paying for Ruf to replace Ruf with an older version of Ruf.

Posted by: Fatalotti | Saturday, November 09, 2013 at 12:25 PM

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