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Friday, November 15, 2013

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repost:

For argument's sake, let's say the Howard-Price rumors were true and Chooch was signed for 2/$20m That'd give you a team of:

Revere
Utley
Brown
Ruf
Byrd
Rollins
Chooch
Asche

Hamels
Lee
Price
MAG
Kendrick

Great pitching staff, lineup is probably short 1 thumper depending on how Ruf and Brown continue to grow and how Byrd does. Lots of question marks in the lineup. Could be great, could be turrible.

Classic JW post.

Great write up, JW...I chuckled several times

This post is a beerleaguer throwback. Thanks JW. Glad you are writing again.

As an aside from the the signing of marginal talent:

Are the Phillies even trying to sign Ricky Nolasco?


When people bash Mayberry, I inevitably think of guys like Clete Thomas and his 300+ PA last year.

****Are the Phillies even trying to sign Ricky Nolasco?****

Considering the rumor that he's expected to get 4/52, do you really want to pay him that much to be a 4th SP on a likely non-playoff club?

Are the Phillies even trying to sign Ricky Nolasco?


Posted by: fenwick | Friday, November 15, 2013 at 12:54 PM

I hope not...at the numbers and years being thrown around for him it would be a mistake.

13 mil per for a guy with a 94 career ERA+ (91 over the last 4 years) sounds like a bad idea to me.

It's up there with giving Adam Eaton 3/24...massive overpayment for marginal talent.

Nepp, how do you use 'adam eaton' and 'marginal talent' in the same sentence? :)

"Clete Thomas, 30, who heads East from the deferential obscurity of the AL Central, where outfielders are apparently named Clete, or Casper"

LOL. This is where I knew it was a JW post.

Likening Adam Eaton to marginal talent is an unforgivable insult to the marginally talented.

This isn't intended as a rebuke of the Comcast writers, but there is a definite flair to jw's writing that has been sorely missed over the last year.

Caliber of the spring training invitees seems to be regressing in lock-step with the MLB roster.

"LOL. This is where I knew it was a JW post."

To be honest, I knew it was a jw post as soon as I read the headline. jw loves these kinds of signings.

Only guy that could possibly help the MLB club is Camp and that is only I bet if they have to use him for 15-20 IP.

Jimenez is a poor man's Bastardo. 2-3 MPH less on his fastball and a so-so slider. Bastardo has always had a pretty good slider.

Jimenez is fine to stash at T-AAA in the bullpen but if he makes the Opening Day roster that points to a strong likelihood of the bullpen really struggling.

It's like the old days. JW writing. MG waxing poetic about the bullpen.

Early Thanksgiving gift-JW post.
Thank you and right on the money by the way.

It's like the old days. JW writing. MG waxing poetic about the bullpen.

Marlon Byrd in the OF. Ed Wade on the company payroll. Franchise in the toilet ...

So glad to see jw writing again

JW has a sarcasm and wit that is tough to match.

"This isn't intended as a rebuke of the Comcast writers, but there is a definite flair to jw's writing that has been sorely missed over the last year."


bap, one thing that's also been sorely missed is the frequency of posting. Missed game threads, trade threads, players being called up threads, etc. etc. etc.

There have been lags between threads here in the last year that have lasted several days. In short, Komkast treats the blog like a poor stepchild.

That never happened under JW.

@ Jbird's lineup

That potential lineup actually scares me. It's not gonna score runs. I'd actually rather have Howard hitting cleanup than Ruf. Ruf strikes me as a reincarnation of Pat Burrell: righthanded power bat with poor defense and a dead fastball hitter with a good eye. He needs to be in the 5th or 6th spot in the lineup where he'll see more fastballs. Put him at 3rd or 4th and he'll stink.

Rollins is also batting way too high, needs to be further down the lineup. And the lack of power after the 5th spot is a big problem.

The advantage, of course, is letting Ruf, Brown, and Asche develop more, which needs to happen, but for my money if you're gonna move Howard and turn things over to your farm hands, that precludes bringing Ruiz back too. Why bring the guy back on an overpriced contract for 2 years? Frankly, he's not worth $10 million a year. Neither is Saltalamacchia actually but he's gonna get that money at a minimum.

If the 2 year, $20 mil offer is from Amaro, it's an overpay, but Amaro is gambling that 1) The deals for McCann and Salty are going to inflate Chooch's price even more, so he'd rather lock him in quickly and 2) He can force rival teams looking for catching help (read: The Atlanta Braves) to overpay substantially either retaining McCann or landing Salty. The 2nd reason actually strikes me as a good one for overpaying for Chooch: it's exactly how a big market team should bully smaller market teams. Drive the prices up for the competition.

You know, prior to his arrival in Philly in 2007, Eaton was pretty Nolasco-esque. Very similar numbers across the board.

Just saying...

For the record, it would not surprise me if McCann gets a 6-7 year deal from an AL team worth $15-18 million a year. If he spends 70-80 of the time catching, he's worth it. If not, that's a helluva a lot of money to be paying a guy who's production is well off his career highs and who's health appears to be in decline. Same thing with Saltalamacchia: wouldn't surprise me if he got a 5-6 year deal because of his youth and ability to switch hit.

I'd rather the team go for a stop gap with average offensive numbers for a catcher (which last year was an OPS of 680-700) who can handle the pitching staff well. While Chooch fits those criteria, it's not worth $10 million a year. $5 mil at best, really (3-4 with an option would be preferable). They're better off signing someone like Torrealba.

"Why not take a flier on X reliever" is another repeated creed that always seems to work for teams other than the Phillies. "

This is true....I think sometimes they go a lil overboard with these signings...Though i dont follow other teams so i cant say for sure if its the norm or not..

Also how many utility guys do we need...With the great one stored away in AAA...

I don't like Nolasco either, but mainly because I'm not sure how I feel about a grown man who goes by "Rickey". The only baseball exception is Rickey Henderson. I will now use this opportunity to go off topic and share a great Rickey Henderson story, as told to a reporter by Bobby Valentine.

When Bobby was a 3rd base coach with the Mets they had some players who were not, let's say, adept at handling lengthy signal relays. So Bobby and his manager simplified the process for those players. For a bunt they would wipe their belt with their hand. Belt-B-Bunt. A hit and run would be a swipe of the knee. And a steal would be 3 claps.

When Valentine was managing the '99 Mets, Rickey Henderson was one of those players who required a simplified signal process. During the season Henderson was closing in on Babe Ruth's all-time walk record of 2,062. Finally, at a home game at Shea Stadium, Rickey drew a walk to pass the Babe. The home crowd gave Rickey a prolonged ovation as the accomplishment was posted on the Diamond Vision. Rickey stood on 1st base, acknowledging the crowd by doffing his helmet and waiving to the Flushing faithful. It occurred to Valentine, that with all the commotion the pitcher may be distracted and it was a perfect time to have Rickey steal. Valentine gave 3rd base coach Cookie Rojas the steal sign. Rojas got Rickey's attention and gave him the simplified steal sign. Clap-clap-clap. Rickey looked back at Rojas and doffed his helmet.

"...that precludes bringing Ruiz back too. Why bring the guy back on an overpriced contract for 2 years? Frankly, he's not worth $10 million a year."


We're going to disagree here, Padrino, because actually... he is.

The issue with Ruiz - a guy who's averaged over 3 WAR the last 3 years - is not the AAV, it's the length of the contract because of his age.

Go read fangraphs, etc., but depending on whose methodology you believe, one WAR is, on the open market, worth between 5 and 7 million dollars.

That says Chooch provides somewhere over $15MM of value/season, using that methodology.

Personally, I wouldn't pay him that, but he probably is worth 10.

2/$20 is not that far off his actual value and it would be preferrable to a 2+option or 3 year deal at a slightly lower aav

Glanville, my thoughts exactly.

IMHO none of the catching "prospects" will be remotely ready in the next 2 years, so keeping Chooch for 2 makes sense.

Who's this new guy posting? He seems pretty good.

IMHO theyve been yanking Ruiz around for years. Rube should of

Guys, I think PLM's been kidnapped...

Cyclic, LOL!

Cyclic, either that or his Mom came down into the basement....

Unlike BAP, I am going to repudiate the Comcast writers. I like Corey Seidman's writing on more technically oriented sites, like his old blog (Brotherly Glove) or Fangraphs, but on here, I don't know that he's at his finest. The other guys (jrfinger?, wisniewski?); I don't even know who they are because I stopped reading the headers on this site for a long time.

Now that I've seen JW dropping in here and there, I take the time to actually read the headers. He's far better than the rest.

Cyclic, now I can't get the visual out of my head of PLM being grabbed from behind, but furiously doing everything in his power to hit tab twice and enter before he loses grasp of the keyboard, to ensure that what may be his last post on Beerleaguer is preserved for posterity.

I'll also give him a pass for typing "should of", assuming that he would have fixed it were he not accosted.

This from mlbtr:

"The Mets are looking for players to buy into their offensive philosophy, and that means finding guys with discipline at the plate,..."


Plate discipline is not what the Phillies look for.

r00b wants Production™.

WSJ: Vintage Rickey Henderson. Truly a man w/ no lack of self-esteem. Thanks for sharing the story.

Keith Law on Amaro: "...has anyone else noticed that these above-market, early-offseason deals Ruben hands out with such abandon all go to clients of his own former agents, the Levinson brothers? Ibanez, Papelbon, and Byrd all come to mind. If I were ownership, I'd be looking at that relationship more closely."

Sorry was interrupted...Ive not been kidnapped....My mom did come into the basement.....

Phew. I was this close to calling BatKid.

@Awh

If he was going to produce at his 2009-2012 levels, then of course he's worth the money. In fact, he's been a bargain. Going by the numbers you quoted, if 1 WAR = 5-7 million, then 1.7 WAR = 8.5-11.9 million. So, okay, his numbers last year justify him getting that contract.

But I strongly doubt he will produce at the same level or remain healthy enough to do so. He's going to be 35. Maybe in the 1st year you'll get Chooch-like production, but certainly not the 2nd or 3rd if there's a vesting option.

Question: Using Fangraphs method, exactly how much money was Ryan Howard worth per year when he signed his contract extension?

Thanks for that klaw suggestion. Wonder if anyone whispered into his ear?

I doubt it's really anything, given there are only so many agents working in MLB, but it sounds like a fun off-season project to compile a list of recent FA signings and extensions by agent.

Keith Law on Amaro: "...has anyone else noticed that these above-market, early-offseason deals Ruben hands out with such abandon all go to clients of his own former agents, the Levinson brothers? Ibanez, Papelbon, and Byrd all come to mind. If I were ownership, I'd be looking at that relationship more closely."
*****************************

Wow, that's a pretty serious accusation to make without any evidence...kinda surprising.

I'm the last thing from a Rube supporter and I'd bet it could merely be explained by two simple facts:

1) the Levinsons represent a bunch of players
2) Rube has a long term relationship with them so he feels more comfortable working with them.

Nothing really sinister I think.

No evidence to give cause for ownership to take a closer look? Are these contracts imaginary?

If the Levinson brothers represent MM, we might have something here. On the other hand, I'm sure they don't represent Delmon.

"Wow, that's a pretty serious accusation to make..."

NEPP, not an accusation, but surely an insinuation...

Conway, Delmon's agent is Arn Tellem, the same guy who represents Utley.

The Levinsons are really small fish, doing about 1/10 the volume of Boras.

The Levinson bros. and Raj conspiracy. What's next, RAJ was seen on the grassy knoll.

Best written beerleaguer lead article I've seen in forever, I'm thinking as I read. And then the by-line. Of course. Thank's Jason.

Likening Adam Eaton to marginal talent is an unforgivable insult to the marginally talented.

Posted by: GTown_Dave


This.

Except, well...Likening Adam Eaton to marginal talent is an unforgivable insult to the completely untalented, actually.

"Clete was especially gratified to find himself at Phillies Spring Training. He said, of Martinez: 'No one doesn't appreciate the chance to study with a guru of versatility.'"

- from Life of a Baseball God by R. A. Marrow II

Of the 20 FAs that Amaro has signed with agents, 6 have been ACES clients:

Byrd
Papelbon
Adams
Ibanez
Gload
Polanco

"Using Fangraphs method, exactly how much money was Ryan Howard worth per year when he signed his contract extension?"


Padrino, what does that have to do with Chooch?

Weren't a majority of the Biogenesis players, Bastardo included, also clients of the Levinson bros.?

I'd be interested to know which, if any, currently available SP are represented by ACES.

Weren't a majority of the Biogenesis players, Bastardo included, also clients of the Levinson bros.?

I'd be interested to know which, if any, currently available SP are represented by ACES.

Posted by: GTown_Dave | Saturday, November 16, 2013 at 11:19 AM

Actually, I believe MLB investigted the Levinsons for allegedly encouraging PED use and directing players to Biogenesis...and 9 of the 19 players involved were ACES clients.

They were also censured by the MLBPA for being complicit in Melky Cabrera's attempted cover-up last year.

Of course, that has been he only major lab busted for PEDs lately...I'm sure all the other players are completely clean.

Chris: Turns out it's 13 of 19. Four players, inc. Nelson Cruz, left ACES in the wake of the scandal.

I believe Byrd is, to this day, the only MLB player who still uses Victor Conte (of BALCO infamy) as his trainer. He was using Conte in 2012, when he was suspended. And I think he's still using him now. Both Byrd & Conte claim that the suspension had nothing to do with anything Conte gave him and, if they say it, it must be true.

Personally, I really hope that Marlon Byrd IS still juicing, as it's the only possible chance he has of coming anywhere near his 2013 numbers. And if he gets suspended, I won't really care since I never wanted him in the first place. It's really a win-win proposition.

bap - As Seidman duly noted, Byrd was just concerned about his giant man-tits, which had absolutely nothing to do with the massive amount of estrogen in his system due to steroid use.

He just has a medical condition.

Once busted, a member of Project ACES has a name.

His name is Marlon Byrd!

@lorecore it's hard to argue that four of those six contacts were either excessive in years or overlays. Didn't Gload get two years or am I mixing him up with Nix? Maybe I'm not giving them enough credit but it makes you wonder Monty and the boys were/are cognizant of the connection.

Overpays ugh auto correct

For all the hundreds of posts whining about Adam Eaton over the years, just remember, it could've been worse: The Rangers traded Adrian Gonzalez and Chris Young for him.

Heard a clip from an interview with Cole Hamels on the news in which he said that as a team mate he would really like to see Chooch back next year, but as a friend he would really like to see Chooch get the kind money he deserves.

Memo to Rube- those are incompatible goals.

they shouldn't be incompatible. i'm surprised that cole is taking a swipe at the cheapness of his bosses. but i agree with your implication that the phillies will be skinflints, regarding chooch to the end. if he goes to boston and starts banging them off the green monster, he will be cheered with 'chooooooooch' all over again. i hear boston has a thing for ex-phillies with ADHD.

but i really want him back here. sign him, rube!! i think it was well argued here that he is worth $20M for two years. mag is going to need a buddy in his corner this year. and it isn't pierz.

interview Larry Anderson for the pitching coach job..

bill: that would make for a very interesting milieu. to say the least.

What they do with Chooch will tell us whether Rube is trying to re-create 1983 or not.

As I posted earlier, GMs and owners care about money more than reloading for the future and an old team making a last gasp playoff run will earn lots more money than a 70-win rebuilding team.

Love the JW throwback post. Non-roster invitees and Rule V draftees are BL's meat and potatoes.

Don't forget to interview Ricky and Mitch.

I can't imagine why no one wants to be the pitching coach on this team. It's going to be embarrassing when r00b has to beg Dubee to come back.

GTown, whoever they get is probably going to be a step down from Dubee.

Yes, Ladies and Gentlemen, welcome to the continuation of the Montgomery/Amaro Phillies...

awh™: I honestly don't think it'll matter much who ends up w/ the job, but I do find it interesting how many pitching coaches have signed elsewhere. The Phillies have been making offers, but the reception has been decidedly lukewarm. It's almost as if they know this club is stuck in the past & going nowhere.

Todd Zolecki: Well, that didn't last long. Wally Joyner leaves the Phillies again. Phillies say he has left to "pursue other opportunities."

I can't believe he wasn't thrilled w/ the opportunity to work w/ legendary slugger Marlon Byrd.

Someone finally showed RAJ Wally Joyner's baseball card, thereby revealing the deep, dark secret that he never played for the Phillies. Hence, his sudden dismissal.

Jim Salisbury ‏@JSalisburyCSN 3m
Wally Joyner will be Tigers hitting coach, reports @Ken_Rosenthal. Heard Mick Billmeyer could be on that staff, as well.


We should all take a deep breath & calm down. The Phillies have convinced Juan Samuel to stay, & that's what really matters.

Doubt Braves resign McCann me thinks they pretty much tapped out.

Mickey Morandini as Joyner's possible replacement? Really? What did he ever do (other than play for the Phils) to warrant consideration for that position?

This really is the worst organization is baseball.

@Chase Trillo: Morandini is the Blue Claws head coach (and the Crosscutters before that).

Dickie, the correct term in baseball, for the positions Morandini has held, is "Manager". :)

The correct mafia term is foot soldier

Any of our recent "toolsy" draft picks ready to play for us next year in some capacity?

or are they just a bunch of tools with no belt.

Personally, my posts are so insightful I believe Komcast has a position for me.

By default Wendell Magee will be the new hitting coach.

Since Joyner was credited with much of Dom Brown's success this year, I wonder if this move means Brown just became more tradeable in the eyes of management.

I'm pretty sure Morandini is part of the Lehigh staff this upcoming season.

How many coaches have the Phils interviewed for the pitching job and have gone elsewhere instead?

"This really is the worst organization is baseball."


Uhhh, no, they're not the worst.

Look South, gobay... lookSouth to the Sunshine State, where goeth a franchise named after a Makaira nigricans.

That is the worst organization in baseball.

The one with a nearly-anatomical name in the Lonestar State isn't much better.

Bench coach Bowa is probably scaring off the qualified pitching coach candidates. Larry had a strong and accurate arm. Give him the job and maybe the bullpen will learn to throw strikes.

Chooch is back. So says Rosenthal.

and when Charlie interviewed for the Tiger's manager position he must have insisted that Joyner and Billmeyer be part of his hiring deal.

And the Monty-Amaro Nostalgia Tour continues ...

Chooch, 3 years, $26M

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