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Monday, November 04, 2013


As an aside, the Rockies are apparently going to raise Chooch's price.

I've said this before, but I can see him getting at least two years with a 3rd year option, and there might be some team desperate/crazy enough to give him 3 years.

IIRC, Mazzone does emphasize throwing strikes, which is something the relief corps needs to do.

Personally, I think they ought to check and see if Rick Peterson is interested and can be had...

What are the chances Chooch accepts a qualifying offer (around $14M) if the Phillies extend it? There are worse overpays I'm confident the Phillies will end up making this off-season. And if he walks, his comp pick would negate what we will clearly lose for whatever top free agent Amaro overpays for, correct?

If Dubee's good influence on several key pitchers is so impossible to deny, why was he not retained?

"Signing Mujica to a multi-year deal is exactly the kind of mistake they desperately need to avoid...much like overpaying for Nolasco, Cruz and Chooch. Even all 4 of them dont make them a playoff team."

No NEPP it does not. They're not likely to be a playoff team no matter what they do. And you're also correct that they won't spend over $189m. They've never gone over the "cap" in the past & they won't start now.

Right now it's all speculation anyway, but it might as well be moot.

As far as Mazzone, The Phils don't have Maddox, Glavine & Smoltz. The have Lee, Hamels, KK, Gonzo and ???. After the first 2, not much to write home about.

DPat, for once I happen to agree.

As Corey wrote in the header:

". The O's had a 5.35 ERA in 2006 and a 5.17 ERA in 2007, proving that it doesn't matter how storied a coach is if the players stink."

Chooch would almost certainly accept a qualifying offer.

Mazzone would be an interesting choice...if nothing else, he has no prior connections to the organization so he'd be a true outsider...something this franchise desperately needs more of.

NEPP in last thread mentioned all the good picks in the mid-40s while omitting the far larger number of poor picks to provide context about just how hard it is to get a good pick.

It's what he does

BA 2014 Top Phillies Prospects:

1. Maikel Franco, 3b
2. Jesse Biddle, lhp
3. J.P. Crawford, ss
4. Miguel Gonzalez, rhp
5. Roman Quinn, ss
6. Carlos Tocci, of
7. Ethan Martin, rhp
8. Cesar Hernandez, 2b/of
9. Aaron Altherr, of
10. Severino Gonzalez, rhp

Yeah AWH it's hard to disagree with those numbers. Still it'll be interesting to see what RAJ does. It'll certainly make for lively conversation, which I'll enjoy reading.

Again- I look forward to DPat's posts 2 years from now where the Phillies should've signed every person under the sun.

Altherr over Dugan is probably the only thing of interest. Sounds like a lot more than just phillies fans have given up on Joseph.

***NEPP in last thread mentioned all the good picks in the mid-40s while omitting the far larger number of poor picks to provide context about just how hard it is to get a good pick.***

No, I showed that its possible almost every single year to hit on a very good player in that range if you get lucky/have good scouting. (I even explained this in the previous thread but perhaps I should have used smaller words to assist with your comprehension?) The Phillies themselves have done it with Rolen and Rollins in the last 20 years. But yeah, we should just give up all our picks because its impossible to improve a team through the draft.

Lore, not surprised to see Maikel vault to the top of the list.

I view him as a dark horse candidate to beat out Asche out of ST. Slim chance, but given their need for RH power it he can make the decision to send him to MiL camp really hard if he has a good ST.

Suppose Franco does rake in ST and makes the team as 3B?

Ruf - LF
Brown - RF

or whatever order you like.

Rube already said he doesn't see Ruf as an OF...thus he wont be in the OF regardless of anything else that happens. I wouldn't be shocked if he's traded for peanuts, sent to AAA to standby in case Howard goes down or outright released.

Sounds like a lot more than just phillies fans have given up on Joseph.

Posted by: LorecorE | Monday, November 04, 2013 at 12:48 PM

If his concussion issues do indeed mean he cannot stay behind the plate, he pretty much has zero value as a prospect at that point.

No brainer. Sign Mazzone.

I think giving up a mid-forties draft pick in an at least above-average draft class for the privilege of paying Nelson Cruz is just about the worst-case scenario that could arise this off-season. Cruz is a big bat, to be sure, but he's also only got mediocre on-base skills, is a below-average defender, and is a liability on the base paths. Or, essentially, the same skill-set as Darin Ruf, with half the walks and better RF defense (-6.5 UZR/150 in 2013 is still a red flag, despite being an improvement on Ruf's -29.6.)

This isn't to say that Cruz wouldn't be an upgrade or that he's the same as Darin Ruf: In addition to being an actual, for-reals RF (even if a lackluster one), Cruz's got better contact skills, which both improve lets him hit for a better average and reduce the K%. But the improvements would be marginal and we would still be left with an outfield that was defensively poor. Under the circumstances, where's the incentive to give-up the draft pick when the odds are that the same results offensively and defensively can be achieved by simply moving Brown to RF and Ruf LF?

Most exciting name on the list, J.P. Crawford. Great debut and I haven't seen a scout say a single bad thing about him. I wonder where the Phils will start him next year.

Don't be surprised to see Quinn eventually moved to CF.

Also no reason to rush Franco. I'd guess the earliest we'd see Franco (barring injury) is late next year.

TTI~ Doesn't matter whom they sign. So talking about 2 years from now won't matter either.

IMO, they have to start by trading for Stanton. Since that's probably a pipe dream, the guys that are available, I can give or take. The RH bats like Cruz etc. are all over 30. Ellsbury, Granderson & Choo would cost too much. Getting one of those 2 would mean they'd have to trade Revere, and he has zero value unless he goes to a team that needs him for defense only.

As far as starting arms, I'd take a shot at Nolasco or maybe Garza, but nor Mujica. I just don't see enough value in the players they could get via FA to make the difference it would take and I certainly wouldn't want the pharm system decimated even further unless any trade was a super win for the Phils. I just can't see pulling it off. I know I'm being negative but the last 2 off-seasons have me very dismayed. Talk to you soon, I hope. Like I said, lots goin' on right now and for quite some time to come.

"Can't see RAJ pulling it off" Sorry.

Is Nelson Cruz really a big bat going forward considering the following:

1. No more PEDs

2. Massive home/road splits for career:
.......Home: .912 OPS
.......Away: .734 OPS

3. Age: He'll be 33 on Opening Day and 34 by the AS Break. How well will he really age considering everything else?

Works for me. Hire the man!

NEPP: It really is laughable when you talk about reading comprehension problems. I never once said anything about giving up the prospect for Cruz.

My point is that while getting players of the quality you mentioned is possible in the mid-40s, it is a longshot, something you failed to mention as you use dishonesty to make your points.

The short-attention crowd is SHOCKED that a player with an injury would be dropped from the Top 10 list and conclude that it must mean no one thinks they're a prospect any more.

In fact, guys drop from that list every season if they're hurt or have an off-year. And they magically reappear next season if they are healthy or bounce back.

Going into the 2004 season, Cole Hamels was the 17th rated prospect in baseball. Injuries during the 2004 and 2005 seasons caused his ranking to plummet (68th and 71st the next two years).

Happens all the time.

DPat: You make no sense sometimes. You don't want the farm system decimated unless it was a huge win for the Phillies yet you advocate trading for Stanton which would decimate the farm system and is not a game changer for the Phillies.

Eeesh is that ever a 'threadbare' prospects list.

***My point is that while getting players of the quality you mentioned is possible in the mid-40s, it is a longshot, something you failed to mention as you use dishonesty to make your points***

Rube could spend $80 million on contracts for 2014 this off-season and it'd still be a longshot at best of them making the playoffs.

But yeah, we should definitely give up draft picks on a long-shot.

"Also no reason to rush Franco. I'd guess the earliest we'd see Franco (barring injury) is late next year."

KAS, you misconstrue.

It's not about "rushing Franco". It's about Franco making it impossible (or nearly so) to send him down.

Yo, new Chooch thread!

Beltran and Granderson got QO's. FWIW as it relates to the Phillies off-season

I would target Jose Bautista of Blue Jays. He is a power bat that they are rumored to be looking to deal for younger cheaper talent. Bautista has two years left on contract at 14 mil per yr with a team option for a 3rd year. These are reasonable numbers compared to overpaying for lesser free agents. Bautista also has excellent numbers vs Righties!

Package a couple of our younger position players or prospects and should be able to get him by taking on his salary.

Leo would be a terrific fit to the Phillies pitching staff and to the organization as a whole. I played for Leo in the minors and he is all for his pitchers who are dedicated to the game and work hard. He believes in throwing in between starts by a controlled and discipline work ethic. Ruben don't miss the boat. You won't find a better pitching coach out there!

Leo had quite a track record with Atlanta. But the Braves also had good scouting that produced great talent.

Has anyone thought to ask Jamie Moyer if he has any interest in being a pitching coach. Moyer was a fine mentor to some of the Phils' younger pitchers when he was here, and he had to be pretty smart to figure out a way to be successful well into his 40's. I think he would be an excellent choice if he is interested.

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