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Friday, November 29, 2013

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I can only imagine all the outdated juvenile pranks all the other GMs play on Ruben during those meetings.

Plastic wrap across the toilet, quarters glued to the floor, wad of shaving cream on the hand while tickling his face, fake trade offers for Ryan Howard that Ruben still turns down anyway, etc.

I really think that the Phillies need to let Mayberry, Frandsen and Kendrick walk. Mayberry had his shot and there are plenty of other outfield options that I would rather take a look at including Franklin Gutierrez and Rajai Davis. Frandsen has been pretty good for this team but with utility players like Hernandez, Galvis and possibly Briganc waiting in the wings its time to let him go. I understand that Kendrick has been a big factor and I would have no problem bringing him back but not at $7M. With a vet like Ryan Vogelsong about to sign for $3-3.5M for one season there is no way we can have KK on the payroll at $7M. I would rather go after a proven big name commodity and then sign a couple of veteran options to challenge the younger prospects they have waiting in the wings. I would also go and trade for Aaron Crow and sign another veteran bullpen arm.

KENDRICK IS A HILLBILLY AND HE SHOULD NOT BE RESIGNED. I HAVE BEEN A PHILLIES FAN FOR 54 YEARS AND KYLE THE HILLBILLY IS THE WORST PLAYER I HAVE SEEN DURING THAT TIME. HE HAS GOT TO GO!

Well, that's settled then.

Bastardo - Keep
Revere - Keep

Frandsen - Let Go
Kendrick - Let Go
Mayberry - Let Go

Despite the verbal promises, I would like to see Amaro let both Kendrick and Mayberry go. Sadly, both will probably be back as part of the same old Phillies...

Frandsen is a no-brainer. The $2M to Mayberry could be better allocated especially since the Phils still don't have another viable player who can play CF at the MLB level in their organization.

KK on a 1-yr deal is okay. He wasn't the same pitcher after the concussion last year. I'm hopeful he can be an okay option next year on a team that already needs at least another starting pitcher anyways. At worst, KK is mediocre/below average and gets moved at the trading deadline for a secondary prospect.

I meant besides Revere. Hernandez isn't a CF and Mayberry was brutal there last year.

Unless the plan is to try to start Revere for 160 G next year (still has never played more than 124 G in a season at the MLB level and I have real doubts how he will hold up over 150+ GS in CF), they need a 5th OF who can play CF at least at an average-level defensively.

In a market where Nolasco receives a 4 yr./$49 million contract, Kendrick's cost will almost certainly be north of $7 million. I'm frightened at what r00b might consider "good value" on a multi-year offer. The "best" case scenario is a one-year arb. deal, followed by a trade sometime this coming season. Even then, the Phillies would be overpaying.

Also, Mayberry at $1.5-$2 million is a joke. The "... if he's used correctly" argument will remain meaningless, as the Phillies (wrongly) believe Mayberry's value is in his supposed versatility. Platoons & situational usage are anathema to that POV.

Bastardo is a no-brainer and has been very good 2 of the last 3 years overall.

Just wonder what he will get in arbitration since he made $1.4M last year and I haven't seen what Schwartz's model predicts. Imagine it will be north of $2M somewhere between $2M-$2.5M.

Normally that would be fine but the Phils have to have some serious reservations about what kind of pitcher Bastardo will be next year.

Alex M. You cannot have been watching the Phils for 54 years if KK is the worst you have seen. In fact, he's not the worst in the past 6 years. Can you say Eaton?

Whoops! Meant Alphonse. And by the way, what do you have against us hillbillies?

GTown: I'd be surprised if KK got more than $7-8M in arb. But if he were a FA, you'd be talking $9M-$10M based on Nolasco & Vargas.

The person who says Kendrick is the worse player he's ever seen on the Phillies in 54 years must be blind or not paying attention. I can't stand Kendrick but I can name 5 worse in just my lifetime:
Steve Jeltz, Ricky Stone, Robert Persons, Lance Parrish, and Mayberry

When Mayberry and Kendrick are mentioned in the same breath like they hold the same value (which happens often), it's a crime against reason.

Mayberry is a bench player that even his staunchest supporters claim can/should only face 30% of MLB pitchers. So to be 'used correctly,' everyone acknowledges that he should be benched 100% of the time against 70% of the pitchers in the MLB. His numbers against LHP have declined each of the last three years to the point where he was only slightly above average against them last year. He brings little to the table as far as speed and defense goes (unless you value being able to stand in CF without the ground opening up and swallowing him).

Kendrick is a guy that has put up a 4 ERA in 450+ IP the last three seasons (4.10 in 400 innings as a starter). Those numbers are also inflated slightly due to his pitching injured for a good two months this summer. I know everyone hates discussing these numbers because they fly in the face of everything the Kendrick-haters think about him, but a guy that can consistently give you ~180IP at a 4ERA is a valuable commodity in the MLB and a vast majority of teams would tender him a contract in a heartbeat.

The only question I'd have about Kendrick is what the severity of his injury was at the end of the year, and how badly did the crack medical staff botch the diagnosis. Concerns about that are valid. The stuff about how badly he's performed is just garbage- it simply isn't true.

Unless Revere gets an arm transplant I would trade his rear end. He doesn't walk, he doesn't hit homers, he strikes out too much (he was billed as the hardest to strike out in the American League).

His bat was just coming around when he broke his foot.

I think he's a liability.

As to Kendrick, keep him: his wife, Stephanie, is a looker and a competitor during her "Survivor" days. Rube believes it's always a good idea to have at least two "Survivor" chicks for community service appearances (Heidi Hamels is also a Jeff Probst alum).

Bastardo is a good (sometimes very good) situational lefty. If we can get a Stutes/Bastardo tandem in the pen again, we could be competitive in the 7th & 8th innings.

Mayberry needs a fresh start somewhere else. He is very frustrating. So much potential, such a distinguished pedigree and so little to show for it.

We could use a power hitting outfielder. How about Ryan Braun? He's tainted but talented. That should make his price just about right.

Can't wait for spring training.

Amazes me that on a planet with roughly 7 billion people on it, it's so hard to put together a group of 25 people who play the game of baseball consistently well.

limoguy: Ruben Amaro should cease to amaze you.

Line-up with Ryan Braun looks OK:

1. Ben Revere (or new centerfielder)
2. Chase Utley secondbase
3. Ryan Braun leftfielder
4. Ryan Howard first base
5. Maikel Franco/Cody Asche thirdbase
6. Dom Brown rightfield
7. Chooch/Cameron Rupp catcher
8. Jimmy Rollins shortstop
9. Pitcher

Yes/no?

If Phils non-tender Mayberry I could see them making a bid for Francisco Peguero, just DFA'd by the Giants.

Peguero, who bats RH, plays all 3 OF spots, was ranked among top 10 Giants prospects 3 years in a row by BA and has tools, tools and more tools.

He's got speed and a terrific throwing arm, projectable gap power and a career minor league BA of .306.

Only downside is he has no clue where the strike zone is, lacks base stealing skills and shows no signs that his power is improving (likely due to being clueless about the strike zone and swinging at pitches he can't possibly drive.)

Yahzoo: What exactly do you think it would take to acquire Braun?

As I mentioned above the key with Kendrick is how much does he want and what is he worth. His first half of the season is easily worth $7M, but his 2nd half was worth less than a million. After Vogelsong signed his 1yr deal for $3M with incentives, I would find it very difficult to sign KK to such a big deal. I would rather offer $7M to another pitcher. I would offer Scott Feldman 2yrs at $14M or go a little higher and offer 2 years $22M to Bronson Arroyo. Scott Baker would be another interesting gamble at say $3M with incentives. Ruben should not settle on KK at $7M.

Yahzoo: What exactly do you think it would take to acquire Braun?
Posted by: clout | Friday, November 29, 2013 at 04:13 PM

An act of God...

Only downside is he has no clue where the strike zone is, lacks base stealing skills and shows no signs that his power is improving (likely due to being clueless about the strike zone and swinging at pitches he can't possibly drive.)
***************

Sounds like he's already mastered Phillies baseball then.

Alex M: Not wanting KK at $7M is certainly a respectable opinion, but the Vogelsong comp is a bad one. He's 36 (KK is 29) and had a worse season than Kendrick. Big diff.

NEPP: Correct and nicely done.

I think people are unfairly burying KK after a poor 2nd half that he was playing impaired by the concussion and reportedly shoulder soreness. He's actually a pretty good candidate to bounce back and be a solid 4th starter who would easily be worth $7 million next year given the ridiculous inflation in the cost of SP the last couple years.

the Phils have to have some serious reservations about what kind of pitcher Bastardo will be next year.
********
With 50 games off to rest his arm, he'll be fine. No brainer.

NEEP is right on Kendrick. You can't let him walk when it was likely the concussion that sent him swooning. He was damn good first half of last season. Easy decision for ~$7M.

Mayberry just as easy: see ya. Say hi to Frandsen for us.

If you don't want KK back, it means the Phils go out on the FA market and sign another veteran mediocrity for multiple years and quite possibly bigger dollars.

This offseason has been a turd so far and even worse than last offseason. Last thing Amaro needs to do at this point is out and sign a guy like Arroyo or Feldman to a 3-yr deal.

Whether Kendrick is tendered or not (Of course, Rube will tender him whether he should be or not) should be a function of his shoulder problem. And as pointed out earlier, nobody should have any confidence that the Phils' crack'd medical staff have correctly diagnosed and/or treated the problem based on their track record.

If he is healthy, he is likely worth more than what he will get. If not, quite possibly a lot less.

MG - What would you think of Rube offering Garza a four year deal at 60 mil or so? There's not lost draft pick because he was traded in season. So, there's that.

Just think of how this could change next year's TV broadcasts: http://mashable.com/2013/11/29/smartwig/

http://espn.go.com/mlb/freeagents/_/position/of

After looking at this list, you can understand why Amaro might be inclined to be bring back Mayberry at $1.7M.

J. Perez would have been a decent sign to sign at the veteran league minimum but he got scooped by the Blue Jays early.

The only guys on this list that have much CF experience and would be available as bench players are Torres, Chambers, R. Davis, Gutierrez, and Q. Berry.

Wells if they can sign him to a major league/minor league deal which is contingent him him making the opening-day roster might not be a bad sign but when you look at the alternatives available that can play CF via FA is pretty meager.

aksmith - If Nolasco got 4 yrs/$49M, then Garza is going to get more than $60M I bet since A. Sanchez got 5 yrs/$80M last year. My bet is closer to 4 yrs/$70M which puts the Phils well out of the running anyways if they are going to have a ~$160M payroll.

It would be a tough call because the Phils would be paying for a guy who is going to only be 30 and is quite possible does deliver enough value over the course of the contract to make it worthwhile to sign him. Question is does Garza stay healthy enough or have the injury maladies that have troubled him the past 2 years.

Ice~ I'm not KK fan as you because he simply doesn't throw hard enough. His slider breaks down and in t LH hitters and that can be deadly. That being said however, it doesn't appear that RAJ will spend money on a FA starting pitcher so KK will likely be here.

And as far as the 'pen and bench, if the Phils wanted Joe Smith that much, why weren't they in serious negotiations with him? With the players that Saisbury has mentioned is his latest article ( Davis, Chavez etc. It seems like the Phils could have a couple of them if they wanted to. But again it doesn't appear so.

As I've said recently it appears to me that RAJ is done making moves and with those move, the team is only a little better off than last year. The Byrd signing is questionable at best for the amount of money he got. It would have been ok for 1/2 that. That being said though, I don't think the Phils should pay a guy like Cruz what he's asking. Chooch's deal is ok based on what it would've cost for Salty, although 3 years is one year too long. If Boston was really in the running until the end though, it made sense. But it could be that Ruiz' agent was using Boston as leverage to get a 3rd year from the Phils.

Being hit in the head by a baseball tossed in anger is not healthy. For that simple reason, I just bet Kendrick has a season for the ages next year - something like 17 - 9, 3.15.

With any luck, the Phils roll the dice; sign a fully-healed KK cheap (who remembers his sinker, and the change-up that got lefties out); and resumes his brilliant career as Doc 2.0. With another CGSO to boot.

Sorry, JW for going to the dark side. However, for as early as this article was published, it' seems pretty on point and it's all here:

The New and Improved Kyle Kendrick

Re: MG. I'd re-sign Mayberry for $1.7mm in a heartbeat. Off the bench chances for a game-tying dinger:

JMJ - .01%
Ben Revere - .0000000000000000000000000000000%

Signing Mayberry to me depends in large part on how Amaro envisions the bench outside of a backup C (Rupp?) and Ruf. Galvis and C. Hernandez are certainly in the mix along some of the scrubs the Phils have signed this winter (Brignac) so far.

Mayberry can play CF albeit poorly but having him and Ruf on the bench is much too duplication of skill sets.

Galvis played primarily at 2B when Utley was out and to spell Utley but he also played 3B, LF, and some SS. He is a switch-hitter but has better from the RH vs LHP.

C. Hernandez played 2B and CF. Also a switch-hitter but I don't how what is splits are like at the minor league level.

If the bench is slated to be Rupp, Ruf, Galvis, and C. Hernandez (all on the 40-man roster), then the Phils actually could use to add a LH bat off the bench with some power.

Actually may have changed my mind after looking around at the FA OF bats though and Mayberry.

Man they stuck and there really aren't many even half-decent bench players available although I do think a couple of veteran FA relievers will fail through the FA cracks and provide some decent value.

MG - I'd rather see as many PAs as possible from Ruf as Howard's platoon partner/LF spot starter. I don't want to see Ruf's OBP and long ball potential rotting on the bench. Trade Dom. Please?

JW said it best about Ruf: They need someone to: '...park the ball in that short porch in left...'.

If you don't want KK back, it means the Phils go out on the FA market and sign another veteran mediocrity for multiple years and quite possibly bigger dollars.

Nothing about re-signing Kendrick precludes the Phillies from going out & signing another veteran mediocrity. In fact, both are likely to happen. r00b loves his veteran arms, & the Phillies would still be a SP short.

Amaro is an idiot. He'll tender KK, Mayberry, and Fransden and then sign some crap reliever and call it an offseason. He'll then play the "if everyone is healthy" card to try and sell us (the fans) that the Phillies are a playoff worthy team, despite being nearly identical to last season's crapfest.

I can't stand him!

Can we non-tender this awful blog staff? More crappy analysis from you tards. Non stop spiral of garbage for 4 years now.

Please sign Kendrick to his lifetime Phillies contract and be done with it. He's a company man. Mayberry will be signed to a unique fine print contract designed by JMJ as a start to HIS lifetime career with the organization. Brown should be traded in the next couple of weeks for some pitching. Whatever happens to Ruf will not be pretty. I say he'll start looking like a crazed caged werewolf riding the pine.

Every single time it should be an easy decision to just let a player walk, they can't because they have no one to replace them. Do they even take part in the draft?

BobbyD: The Phillies have drafted quite a few tremendous athletes over the years. The only place they've fallen short in the draft is on skilled baseball players.

Three of this year's free-agent pitchers are or were Garza, Nolasco and Santana.

In the last three years, if you look at bWAR, these three and Kendrick all performed at about the same level (1.4-1.8 bWAR per season).

If you look at fWAR, the picture is much different. Nolasco and Garza were the best of the four averaging 2.9 and 2.7 fWAR, respectively. Santana was at 1.5, and Kendrick barely 1.0.

The primary conclusion I draw from this data is that the sabermetrics people need to get their act together. If they want more people to pay attention, they need to tell one story, not two, about the same events.

Tendering Kendrick is a no-brainer. The Phils can sign him at $7 million and either keep him or trade him. In today's market, Kendrick with such a one-year deal has value.

With the Byrd signing, the Phils should be slightly improved in '14. With the Ruiz re-signing, the Phils are standing in place (although this is their best option at catcher).

For the Phils to play even .500 ball in '14, they need to make much more significant moves. They need to add two SPs, two who are better than Kendrick or at least have much higher ceilings. Most of the low-risk, high-reward guys have signed elsewhere. That leaves Tanaka, Garza and maybe Kazmir and Colon among the pitchers not requiring compensation. The Phils should sign two of these.

The team should be able to determine MAG's role by the end of ST. If MAG looks like a solid starter, they can trade Kendrick. If MAG is not ready to start or looks to be just a reliever, they can keep Kendrick.

Since every team that can afford him wants Tanaka, I don't think he ends up in a Phillies' uniform. Tanaka is only 25 and projects to be a no. 2 or 3. He makes a team's rotation better immediately, and he will be around long-term. If the Phils do sign him, this off-season will be an unqualified success.

What should they do? Keep Kendrick for 1 year/7 million on a 70-75 win team, or get someone who will likely be no better (and could be much worse) like Feldman or Arroyo for an extra year and more AAV to pitch for the same 70-75 win team?

Yes, that's a tough one.

The person who says Kendrick is the worse player he's ever seen on the Phillies in 54 years must be blind or not paying attention. I can't stand Kendrick but I can name 5 worse in just my lifetime:
Steve Jeltz, Ricky Stone, Robert Persons, Lance Parrish, and Mayberry - Chris G

Who can forget Sil Camusano???

And on the Braun front, I don't care if he helps the team he's despicable. It's not just the suspension for the biogenesis stuff but the first failed drug test that was thrown out. He made the handler out to be this bad guy who framed him. The guy lost his job, had to move to get away from harassment when more than likely Braun was cheating the whole time and slithered away like the snake he is. He told everyone then he was innocent then got caught up again. It's one thing to get caught and apologize but it's arrogance to get caught, lie, drag someone through the mud, then get caught again and apologize. Can't trust him, don't want him.

May I ask who Ricky Stone is?

I think he meant Ricky Whatshisface, the first baseman.

Jordan? Who can remember all the traumatic 'prospects' we watched from the late 80s through the early aughts?

I can't forget.

I hear Senor Ruben is looking for a pitcher. I met all the criteria.

35 and over
former Phillie
Looking for a 2 year deal with a option for 3rd
Coming off a decent year which is anyone guess that I will come close to replicating.
Friends with Michael Martinez on Twitter

Ricky Jordan then? Or maybe a mashup of the worst of Ricky Otero and Jeff Stone?

There actually was a Ricky Stone who pitched for HOU and CIN in the most recent aughts. He played for about 6 years and I have no recollection of him whatsoever. His ERA+ dropped every year until a late dead cat bounce from 74 to 80. :(

It's RON Stone, one of the first "toolsy " OF the Phillies drafted. A nice guy who couldn't field and despite his speed, could not steal bases. He also had Mike Tyson-like lisp when he was interviewed.

Yikes! I meant JEFF Stone lol. Ron Stone was another "can't miss" OF in the late 60's early 70's who missed.

Mr. Chen I think you have a shot at joining your former club.

As for Mayberry, I have to say it's a horrible mistake to tender him a contract. If Amaro doesn't know that it's way past time to cut him loose, he's a worse GM than I thought.

Brignac and Blanco in camp pretty much ends the Frandsen era.

Kendrick is good for the tender which is something I never thought I'd say.

It's RON Stone, one of the first "toolsy " OF the Phillies drafted. A nice guy who couldn't field and despite his speed, could not steal bases. He also had Mike Tyson-like lisp when he was interviewed.

I believe you're thinking of Ron JONES. He was an outfielder with potential, but had a bad injury, and never panned out. His first year, 1988, he was pretty good, hitting .307 with 8 HR's and 26 RBI's in 129 plate appearances. http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/j/jonesro02.shtml

GMCarson - Pretty much although I do think Amaro will sign another veteran starting pitcher along the lines of Lannan last year (~$5-6M base with some incentives) to compete for a 4/5 spot in the rotation.

As long as they aren't long-term deals, I don't mind although I would give this offseason either a 'D' or 'F' so far.

No strategic direction or imperative, signing guys in their mid-30s/late-30s to multi-year deals, complete stiffs on the minor league signings except maybe Camp, and zero creativity. Only good thing so far this offseason is that Amaro didn't sign a guy like Cruz to a 4 yr/$60-65M deal.

Even last year, Amaro took a more creative approach to the offseason through the M. Young and Revere trades and did try to pull the hole in RF with several options before eventually signing D. Young. Only move that I despised last year was the Durbin signing.

Actually I wouldn't mind if the Phils would sign B. Chen if it was on a 1-year deal on a moderate base with strong incentive upside (say $3-$4M), give him the 5th spot in the rotation, and if he struggles in April into May you move him into the bullpen.

Doesn't have strikeout stuff but he does have a good slider & an effective changeup, doesn't walk many batters, and has been quite effective 3 of the last 4 years the first time through the lineup.

Only issue is that Boras is Chen's agent and I am sure he won't settle for anything less than 2 years & a solid payday since this is Chen's last chance at it. Chen made $4.5M last year. I would guess Boras is looking at something similar to what Blanton got but a bit lower (say 2 yrs/$12M). Just a question of whether Chen gets that multi-year deal or not.

So, my father and I talk baseball almost every night and the trade hypotheses get a bit ridiculous.

Last night, we discussed a scenario in which Howard has an impressive first half in 2014 and the Angels are a game behind in the AL West on July 1st.

Amaro approaches Jerry Dipoto with the following proposal: Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Howard, Kyle Kendrick and Ben Revere for Mike Trout.

This gives Anaheim an ace at the top and one season of a quality back end starter, a 7th/8th/9th inning combo of Smith/Frieri/Pap and a 3-4-5 of Hamilton/Pujols/Howard who (if healthy) could make up the most feared heart of the order in recent memory. Howard also has a more realistic shot of staying healthy as a DH.

It also makes the Angels a realistic WS favorite for 2014-2015, but at the cost of one of the most talented young players in the game (and a hell of a lot of cash).

Prior to the Red Sox/Dodgers exchange of last winter, I wouldn't even have given this a moment's thought, but it's not as completely bonkers as I thought it was when it came up. If the Angels goal is to win now (and with the age of Pujols and Hamilton and the money they have dedicated to both, I don't know why they wouldn't be), how can you turn it down? Is one player, no matter how good, worth a left handed ace, a top closer and a 3-4-5 with that kind of power potential?

I like the trade but it is hinges on Papelbon and Howard being better players than they are.
Maybe the Angels do that with Trout a year or more ago before he was so entrenched as the best player in baseball.

Will: Player-wise that might make sense for the Angels, but dollar-wise it's way off unless the Phillies pay half the salaries.

Kyle Kendrick is arbitration-eligible and therefore the FA market has little effect on his value. Unless Amaro goes nuts and signs him to a multi-year deal, it only makes sense to bring back a capable backend starter at 1 year/$7mil.

They still need to add depth though. They should be going into ST with at least 6 starting pitchers that could make an impact this year (really 8 pitchers, couting Pettibone and Morgan).

Lee, Hamels, Gonzalez, Kendrick, sign a mid-tier FA and a bounceback candidate

RE: the Mike Trout trade. Why not throw in Rollins, Chooch, and Utley if the Angels are taking on all our bad contracts?

Will - Very interesting. However, if Pabelbon has a bum hip, no dice. It does appear that something is wrong with him, based on incremental annual drops in velocity.

I just finished reading up the last thread - travelling for thanksgiving.

I must say, MG was is rare form with his Papelbon pontification at the end of the thread! Bravo!

I never thought I'd see MG outdo himself, but boy-oh-boy, he did there.

" Kendrick's cost could rise to the $7 million mark, and he's not a $7 million pitcher."


After reading the above in the thread header, I have to wonder whether Seidman even pays attention to what even average pitching is starting to cost, given the new revenue flooding in to MLB from TVG deals.

Seems more like Seidman doesn't understand the free market, arb negotiations and the effect of FA salaries thereon, and the fact that making statements like that about arbitrary dollar amounts in a marketplace where salaries have been rising since the beginning of free agency (before Corey was born) is more than a bit like an ostrich sticking his head in the sand.

"Bastardo is a good (sometimes very good) situational lefty."


I read sh8t like the above posted by Yahzooman yesterday, and I wonder just what team and relief pitcher he watches.

Bastardo's career platoon splits:

vs. RHB: .217/.314/.346, 499 PA
vs. LHB: .188/.279/.337, 321 PA


Yeah, he can't get RHB out at all and gets crushed when he faces them. Sheesh.

Oh, and for all you members of the Moronocracy who think they should non-tender Kendrick and let him become an FA, I'm gald you're nto the GM of this team. Amaro is not the sharpest knife in the drawer, but that's so st00pid there's really no logical response to it.


If Kyle Kendrick were an FA tomorrow (and his shoulder is a non-issue), I'd bet anyone here anything he'd get at least 3 years and $8MM/year.

"Normally that would be fine but the Phils have to have some serious reservations about what kind of pitcher Bastardo will be next year."


MG, I imagine Bastardo's performance in the DWL will temper those reservations somewhat.

He's pitched 8.2 innings, has a 1.04 ERA, 17 Ks, 2 BB, .810 WHIP. I would not be surprised to see him come back with a vengeance.

awh - That's pretty harsh. When did you turn into Clout?

The entire question of whether you tender Kendrick turns on his shoulder health and pretty much nothing else. Yeah, there are some who just irrationally dislike Kendrick. Frankly, I used to hate to watch him pitch. But he has figured out enough of pitching to have become worth at least the 7 million dollars he will get in arb if he is healthy and that's been the question ever since his shoulder problems popped up at the end of last season.

Having faith in the Phils medical staff might qualify one for the moronocracy. But wanting to be sure Kendrick is healthy before deciding to tender him should not.

DiPoto should fire himself if he even considered such a deal.

Trout is basically untouchable. There is no way the Angels give up basically the best player in baseball, at 22 and with 5 years of control, for 75 million dollars a year of 33+ year old players. It's a laughable idea.

Smitty, I agree that it's all on Kendrick's shoulder, but if his shoulder is healthy and he was an FA, I'd bet anything he'd get at least 3/24.

And even if he isn't totally healthy, he might get 3/24 upside in a contract based on performance such as IP, etc.

I'm not a Kendrick hater or cheerleader. I do, however, try to observe the MLB FA markets and make a reasonable determination as to what the realities are in the marketplace.

When Jason Vargas gets 4 years, and when other average SP are getting 3-4 year deals at $8MM+ - heck, when Joe Blanton can still get 2/15 last offseason - that tells me that teams are desperate for pitchers who have the potential to eat innings at even a league average performance level.

That's the reality that many here just simply ignore - maybe by choice - and they'd add to the discussion more if they just deal with the realities that exist.

Those realities are that MLB salaries have been rising since free agency began, and it seems for reasonably durable starting pitchers they're escalating even faster right now. With all the new revenue sources (local TV, online, new Nat'l TV deal, etc.) it's going to give even mid and small market teams more money to spend. It's also going to allow those mid-small market teams to lock up their better players through their peak years, and will lead to more FA dollars chasing older free agents. Teams will have to adjust, learn to lock up their own players, and use the FA dollars wisely to fill out the holes in their rosters without ham-stringing the team financially.

Now, people may not agree that player salaries ought to be what they are or rise further from their current level, but that's the REALITY with which we have to deal.

So, back to KK:

he pitched a career high 182 innings in 2013, the last 3 seasons he's averaged 152 IP with a 96 ERA+, before his concussion in 2013 he was considerably better than that, and he's by all accounts a hard worker and a good clubhouse guy.

Compare that to Jason Vargas, who averaged 189 IP the last 3 seasons with an ERA+ of 94, and only pitched 150 innings in 2013.

KK has value, and he's score at least a 3 years deal as an FA, despite what the haters here think.

Chris, If I were Jerry DiPoto, and Mike Rizzo called me and offered me Strasberg AND Harper for Trout, I would turn it down.

Why? Injury history. I wouldn't take the risk with those two - not when I already have the best player on the planet.

Smitty, let me add this:

The KK haters biggest problem with him seems to be that "he's NOT".

He's not Cole Hamels. He's not Cliff Lee. he's not Roy Halladay. He's not Roy Oswalt.

Simply, we've been spoiled watching those guys the last several years, and while KK has been a perfectly acceptable league average pitcher - starter or otherwise - because he doesn't dominate the way those guys do he's not as much fun to watch - which you explicitly stated.

But league average pitchers who are healthy have value, as we continually find out every offseason in the FA marketplace.

Yet, many here just continue to stick their heads in the sand as to the changing realities.

Yes, but is he a hillbilly?

Wow...Just checked KK's most similar pitchers through age 28, and the list is a who's who of mediocre SPs who got PAID (or will) in free agency.

Blanton, Nolasco, Stottlemyre, Westbrook, Pavano, Meche, Pineiro, and Eaton.

awh is completely right...We may not love Kendrick, and he may be frustrating, but at the end of the day what he provides is worth a ton on the open market.

KK

KK has value but I seriously doubt he would be get a big pay day. He has essentially been a full-time starter in three seasons ('08, '10, '13) while putting up very mediocre numbers in those years. Also only has a career-high of 182 IP in a season which he set last year & had shoulder issues in the process of doing it.

Imagine if KK was a free agent he would get a 2 or 3 year deal given some of the injury concerns he had last year at about what Blanton got last year and maybe a bit more (2 yr/$15M) if he got the 3 yr year (say 3 yr/$21M).

MG - take a look at some of those comparables for KK before they signed their big deals. KK would be looking at something like 4/40 on the open market, in my estimation.

MG: KK is younger than Blanton and has better career stats. If he were a FA he would absolutely get a better deal than Blanton got last year. It would be $8M per at a kmin7um and if it was a shorte4r deal (say 2 years) it would be $9M or $10M.

awh is absolutely right: there are posters here who absolutely deny the reality of what the FA market is. It goes up every year folks, like it or not.

***If he were a FA he would absolutely get a better deal than Blanton got last year.***

Which is why the people clamoring to non-tender him are insane.

http://hardballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/11/29/major-league-baseball-releases-its-annual-drug-test-report/

MLB released its drug test results for 2013...here's one fun tidbit from the linked article:

There were eight positive tests resulting in discipline. All were for stimulants. Seven of the stimulant tests were for Adderall. One for Methylhexaneamine. I guess that means that there are no more steroids in baseball.

I'm gonna go with Option C: The drug labs found a new PED drug that isn't detectable by current testing standards...or players are being tipped off to test dates/times.

KK is coming off some shoulder issues though and finished the year very poorly which I bet would depress his value a bit but more importantly the length of the deal.

I really hope the Mets sign Arroyo to a 3-year deal at big dollars. He'll be okay I bet at Citi Field but I will love the chance to bet against him a few times a year in CBP over the next few years.

Clearly, the shoulder issues would have to be addressed from a medical standpoint and I will safely assume that the crack Phillies medical staff has already done so if they intend on tendering him an offer.

Will S: "Cliff Lee, Jonathan Papelbon, Ryan Howard, Kyle Kendrick and Ben Revere for Mike Trout."

Papelbon and Ryan Howard's negative value basically negates the positive value of Lee, KK, and Revere. Your trading a net zero package for Mike Trout, how does that even become a conversation?

Tender KK and hope he gets off to the same start he did in 2012 so you can trade him + his salary for the best return possible.

That would be the smart thing to do.

The Amaro move will be either to lock KK up for the next 3 years with a vesting option at market value, or reach an 1 year deal and then refuse trading him because they are 'only' 12 games back by end of May.

I say Rube offers a 3/25 contract with an option to sign again and again.

Seeing the name of Ron Stone brought back memories. From 1969 to 1972 he played outfield for the Phillies. He had the nickname of "Palm Trees" because he would always absolutely kill the ball in spring training and disappear during the regular season (I think his lifetime avg. was something like .241). Nice guy but yet another failed "toolsy" Phillies player.

Was it Jeff Stone who was called "Skates"? Fast, but always falling down, in the OF, or on the bases.

Skates was Lonnie Smith, I believe.

Hughes just got 3/24.

But yeah, Kendrick at 1 year/7 million is a terrible move.


Hughes just got 3/24.

But yeah, Kendrick at 1 year/7 million is a terrible move.

Posted by: Iceman | Saturday, November 30, 2013 at 11:17 PM

What he said.

Yeah Hughes getting 3 years. I don't see Amaro making any big splashes other than maybe Tanaka which I really hope for. Money and years this year, even the Phillies moves so far, is crazy. If several teams end up with bad contracts in a couple years will inflation slow down or is this just the new market?

And I think I would rather have Kendrick for the next 3 years at 7 million over Hughes at 7 million per year let alone Kendrick on a 1 year deal.

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