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Thursday, October 03, 2013

Comments

People want to trade DOM for someone better than DOM, great idea.

I think we should trade Revere for someone better than Revere, Ruf for someone better than Ruf, Asche for someone better than Asche, Rollins for someone better than Rollins, Utley for someone better than Utley, and most importantly, Howard for someone better than Howard.

Seen that he sucked last 2 years he should take a team friendly contract of 6.5 million with some incentives.

And I'd seriously trade Papelbon for someone worse than Papalbon.

While I read it that way at first too, Lore, upon looking at it again I realized the intent behind the post was "trade Brown if you can get (via other trade, FA, or whatever) someone better than Brown."

Presumably using the guy/s from the Brown trade in other area/s of need.

If Doc comes back on anything other than an incentive-laden 1 year deal for less than 8.5 mil it would be a mistake. He just looks done, and unfortunately he's at the age where many Aces start to fall apart. Shoulder woes, mysterious medical ailments, declining stuff and command...doesn't sound like a great bet going forward.

Move on people. This team needs way to many pieces to even mention Doc.

This is one divorce that needs to desperately take place for both parties. Halladay to go to a team that has some shot of winning a ring next year and the Phils to somebody who actually give them 150+ IP.




_

MASAHIRO TANAKA

1.22 ERA

LOWEST ERA in JAPAN

24yrs old

_

Ben Badler says MASAHIRO TANAKA has "arguably the best splitter in the world"

&

97 MPH fastball

Tanaka maintains his fastball velocity through the 9th inning. Last game was at 96 with his last pitch.

Phillies need to bid at least $60 million to win the bid.

Tanaka is the best pitcher available.

The Phillies also need to sign MATT GARZA.

HAMELS
LEE
TANAKA
GARZA
KENDRICK

Add CHOO & MCCANN and bring back CHOOCH.

That's what a winning Phillies team looks like in 2014.


Scammies_Mafia

Giving Halladay $6 or $8 million dollars in hopes he can be adequate enough seems like a stupid idea that only RAJ could come up with.

Bed Beard: Now that's just silly. Lots of GMs could come up with it.

In fact, Amaro's probably not even the only GM who would implement it - as we'll likely see if he doesn't implement it.


Repost:

Trade Dom Brown for a cost-controlled starting pitcher. Sign Ellsbury and make him your starting center fielder. Platoon Ruf and Revere in left and see if Ruf's splits reverse vs. LHP. Sign Nelson Cruz to play right. Revere/Ruf are you fourth outfielders, Hernandez and Galvis are your utility guys. Sign Casey McGahee from Japan and give him a shot at the Frandsen role (corner infielder). Lineup:
C: Ruiz (resigned)
1B: Howard
2B: Utley
3B: Asche
SS: Rollins
LF: Ruf/Revere
CF: Ellsbury
RF: N. Cruz
Bench:
UT: Hernandez
UT: Galvis
1B/3B: McGahee
OF: Revere/Ruf
C: Rupp/Kratz
Rotation:
Lee
Hamels
Guy from D. Brown trade
Gonzalez
Kendrick
Bullpen:
Papelbon
Adams
Rosenberg
Diekman
Bastardo
DeFratus

Phillibuster: True. RH is worthy of a look by a team, but what I saw does not resemble a major league starting pitcher who should expect $6+million a year, even considering the "talent" that makes that type of money already. He's better off pulling a Pedro Martinez and sitting out most of the year, and sign with a playoff team late in the season. I still can't believe Pedro was a Phillie. Seems like a dream.

This is one divorce that needs to desperately take place for both parties. Halladay to go to a team that has some shot of winning a ring next year and the Phils to somebody who actually give them 150+ IP.

Perfect summation.

Assuming he can still pitch, Halladay will probably now enter the "partial season" section of his career a la Roger Clemens and Pedro. Wait until June or July to catch on with a winning team for lesser dollars, in return for a bigger chance of winning a WS. No need to put more mileage on your arm during the first half of the season if money isn't a major factor.

"Now that's just silly. Lots of GMs could come up with it."

I get what you're saying. Lots of GMs signing bounce-back guys to one-year contracts in the hopes of striking gold. But there strikes me as something different when the bounce-back guy you're signing is the exact same guy who was already on your roster, and failed spectacularly, in each of the past 2 seasons.

Yeah..There is a chance that Halladay returns to old form and has a few good years in him yet. The big issue is though- there is a chance he doesn't. And if the Phillies want to have a chance at competing in 2014 (which they do) they need someone whose reward is higher than their risk.

Also- I don't care if it is Mike, Finger, JW, Seidman, or Ralph Roberts himself...can someone please remove the troll from this site. We know who I am referring to. It is not that hard to block an IP.




_

MONTGOMERY and AMARO

fired Charlie Manuel because he wasn't a LIAR

MONTGOMERY and AMARO look you in the eye and LIE
_


ED WADE is still here.

PAT GILLICK is still here.

PHILLIES GM has lifetime employment.
_


AMARO and MONTGOMERY

"We've assembled a championship team (2013)."

SIX MLB TEAMS finished with a worse record than the PHILLIES
_


If the PHILLIES are not paying a lot of TAXES on their PAYROLL next year then 2014 is another

SCAMMIES SEASON
_


The PHILLIES COMMITMENT to winning can be exactly defined by how much or little they pay in PAYROLL TAXES
_


The PHILLIES were first in attendance in 2012.

JOHN S. MIDDLETON slashed $20 million from the PAYROLL.

_


Only six teams had a worse record than the PHILLIES.

This is an accurate reflection of the Phillies TALENT
_


The BRAVES have two DEAD CONTRACTS in UGGLA and B.J. UPTON plus paralyzing injuries worse than the PHILLIES had.
_
Scammies_Mafia

TTI: look, clout gets on my nerves to with his constant and unnecessary hostility and name calling and his intentional misrepresentations, but I don't think we should block his IP address.

Tweet of the day from ESPN's twitter account- https://twitter.com/espn/status/385756977525452800 in regards to Delmon Young.


Those are some bold words, fellas.

Doc---2 mil with incentives for innings pitched,quality starts and era.Top out at 9-10 mil.Doubt he can give you what KK can for half of that.

jr: I don't think you can give incentives for stats like era. Only starts or awards like top 10 Cy Young finish. That sorta thing.

jbird: D. Young received bonuses based on being somewhat less of a lardass. Leads me to believe anything is possible.

Honestly, you can just use IP as the incentive there, with the understanding that Ryne's not allowed to keep him in if he's blown the game wide open.

That covers the QS and ERA possibilities, since if he's pitching a lot of innings you can presume his ERA is low.

Whatever we do with Doc, you just know it will come back to bite us. If he goes elsewhere he'll end up winning a Cy Young. Keep him here and we'll see a season of sweating and fumbling on the mound.

It's worth noting that, at the time the A's signed Sheets, he had missed the entire previous season but had actually been somewhere between good and dominant in the season before that. That is in stark contrast to Halladay, who was the worst starting pitcher in baseball last year & merely terrible the year before that.

I'm all in favor of taking a chance on realistic bounce-back candidates. But, by my count, Halladay has had 3 opportunities to "bounce back" since April, 2012. The first came when he went on the DL in May, 2012; the second was after the off-season in 2012-2013; the third was when he went on the DL for 3 months in 2013. Each time he has come back and been as bad as, if not worse than, before. You really have to be pretty delusional to think it's going to be any different this time.

That said, I think Halladay might be worth a $5M one-year flier for a contending team with deep starting pitching in the minors -- in other words, a team that can afford the frivolity of taking a chance on him, without actually counting on him to be in their starting rotation. The Phillies do not have deep starting pitching in the minors & RAJ is incapable of signing a guy like Halladay without committing himself to giving him a spot in our starting rotation.

"Quality Start"

*puke*

Right up there w/ the "Hold" battling for the title of Worst Stat Ever.

GTown: I thought RBIs were the most useless stat?

Pitch break?

WAR?

VIndex (versatility index)?

Has anybody considered the possibility that Doc was unable to pitch better this year, after his return from the DL, because this mysterious stomach disorder preventing his getting into his usual tip-top shape? Has anyone considered the further possibility, now that his condition has been diagnosed, that it may be treatable and that, once again, Doc can resume his legendary workout routine? It may be more satisfying to jump to conclusions, but it's better to let the story play out. Maybe, we will learn that Halladay is still better than Kendrick and Pettibone and a solid mid-rotation guy. We cannot know this now, but we may find out next spring or mid-season.

The Phillies are not making the playoffs next year. So, if they sign Halladay, it's not really hurting the team much. The worst case scenario is that he flops, but by flopping he would help the team get another high draft pick. He won't be blocking anyone's development. Biddle and Morgan won't be ready at season start. Kendrick. Pettibone. Who cares?

As a fan, I think talents like Roy Halladay deserve special treatment. If he wants to salvage his career as a Phillie, if the medical reports are encouraging, and if he can produce reasonable well in spring training, I'd give him a chance. And if there's an overpay involved, so be it.

Phillibuster: You mean the Martinez Index? Extremely valuable in the National League game. Fans just don't understand this concept. We should be thankful Ruben is here to enlighten us.

QS isn't the worst stat ever. It's actually a pretty good stat for what it measures. It's just that what it measures isn't much. It merely tells you if a starting pitcher satisfied the bare minimum requirements for competency.

And the "hold" stat is no worse than the save stat. They're the exact same thing, except that one occurs in the final inning & one doesn't.

My vote for worst stat ever: blown saves for non-closers. My head still hurts from trying to explain to MVPTommy that the reason pre-closing Ryan Madson had such a terrible "save percentage" was because non-closers can be charged with a blown save, but can never actually get a save.

ERA for non-closers would be a close 2nd for worst stat. Non-closers often enter mid-inning & inherit another pitcher's runners, so ERA tells you very little about their performance. Case in point: Luis Garcia managed to post an ERA+ of 103, even though he's beyond terrible.

A couple of things:

If the Phillies sign Doc, it really needs to be a contract that puts all the risk on Doc. He's earned 40 million dollars the past two season for doing essentially nothing but suck and be injured, although probably not in that order.

And anyone, you know who you are, but I don't really keep track, who says Doc was ever stoic on the mound never watched the guy pitch. When he was at the top of his game, i don't think I've ever seen a guy grouse at the umps as regularly as he did. He'd basically have a running dialog with the home plate ump in about half his games. And because he'd been jabbering so much out on the mound, he'd often approach the umps on his way off the mound to try to mend fences. If he hadn't been Roy Halladay, he'd have been close to being thrown out of games many times. Pick any mediocre pitcher and have him behave on the mound like Doc and he'd be run a dozen times a season.

derekcarstairs, I agree regarding Doc. As a fan, I hope the Phillies take the time to diagnose properly and follow the healing process.

We've all talked about filling seats next year without necessarily having the promise of a playoff-bound team. I believe there is fan interest in following--and rooting for--specific players as well as for wins. Doc is one of those players. Chooch is another. It is also why in the absence of championships the most fan appeal would be from a roster comprised of a combination of favorite veterans, young familiar players who have come through the minor league system, and a few new faces.

3rd worst stat ever: fielding percentage.

... non-closers can be charged with a blown save, but can never actually get a save.

Which is why we have the friggin' "Hold" now. It's a rabbit hole of asinine statistics, the likes of which only a sports agent might find agreeable.

I'd also feel better about the "Quality Start" if the word "Quality" were removed. Something like "BAS", for "Barely Acceptable Start" would be preferable.

b_a_p: All fielding stats are garbage, esp. now that the Error has been outlawed by MLB. I'll cite a defensive metric now & again, but I always feel dirty after doing so.

The question that should be asked:

What I don't understand is why Halladay (supposedly so ubercompetitive to the point of harming himself) would want to come back to Philly next year under any circumstance?

Was anyone here even alive to watch the Decline and Fall of the Carlton Empire?

Watching a formerly great player molder and rust and end up lying in a rotted heap is sickening and will draw no one to the park. It's like attending a Monkees concert with the late Davey Jones singing lead. Yuck.

If the Phillies decide that Doc is healthy and he's willing to work for nothing more than a minimal contract plus healthy incentives, then fine. But if he gets a contract any bigger than that, Rube needs to be fired or placed in a mental facility immediately. Or both.

"Has anyone considered the further possibility, now that his condition has been diagnosed, that it may be treatable and that, once again, Doc can resume his legendary workout routine?"

I've been saying for like a full year that I thought Halladay had some sort of underlying medical issue, so I think there's some legitimacy to what you're saying. Still, it's a hail Mary. For one thing, he's not 35 anymore; he's 37. And even if the medical condition (whatever it is) can be treated, it doesn't mean it won't continue to be a problem.

The Phillies already have enough hail Marys built into their 2014 plans. They don't need to go out in search of another one.

Some team should, and will, take a chance on Doc next season. That team should not be a squad coming off a 66-96 Pythagorean W-L.

I dont see why the Phillies should throw money in the hopes that Doc figures things out. That's what teams on the bubble typically do and the Phillies arent even close to that in 2014.

Was anyone here even alive to watch the Decline and Fall of the Carlton Empire?

Yup. And it's ugly watching the same sort of thing happen again. Athletes, esp. the best in their fields, often have a lot of difficulty stepping away. I've always admired Mike Schmidt for his ability to admit how much his game had diminished, & retire.

So it seems like some people are of the belief that no matter what the Phillies are done next year too.

What else will happen in baseball in 2014?

If this article cites NL trends for the next few years, the Phillies are really in serious trouble. Only (maybe) the first of these points applies to them and that's just for 2 guys.

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/mlb/news/20131003/dodgers-braves-pirates-cardinals-shared-values/index.html?eref=sircrc

I think the two most significant contributions to the game by the sabermetric guys are pointing out that -
1. walks are important in evaluating offense; and
2. official scoring on matters like errors impedes a proper evaluation of players.

OTOH, I think the stats guys have a long way to go in evaluating pitching and defense. I believe a big part of the problem is that most of these stats guys operate on a shoestring budget, and, consequently, they do not have access to available technology.

Obviously, the ball clubs have the resources to do more sophisticated analysis. I am following with great interest what the Astros for one are able to accomplish with Kevin Goldstein and Mike Fast formerly of BP on the payroll.

TTI: All off-season decisions must be based on an assessment of where the Phillies stand, and are likely to stand, in 2014. If you're going to scold anyone who offers his opinion about the likely state of the Phillies in 2014, then there's nothing left to talk about except coffee preferences (which you also sort of scolded people for discussing).

Whatever we do with Doc, you just know it will come back to bite us. If he goes elsewhere he'll end up winning a Cy Young. Keep him here and we'll see a season of sweating and fumbling on the mound.

Posted by: can_of_corn | Thursday, October 03, 2013 at 11:0

Seems like this is the way it happens for Philly sports in general.

Could be way off but it's going to be hard to gague Halladay's progress enough to know what to offer (if RAJ makes an offer at all) to him. He's super competitive, and will likely continue to say everything is all right/getting better, how he's excited for 2014, etc. But, who is monitoring him this winter? Someone should be watching him like a hawk, and make the final determination based on that. We were burned in the past with players saying they were ready to go and weren't (Utley, as much as I hate to say that).

bap: good post about the Phillies having exceeded their hail mary quota for 2014 already. Doc and the Phillies is just a terrible fit.

Any fan of Doc and any fan of the Phillies should be well aware of that and hope each other the best after the part.

Derek: OBP is not a SABR metric. It's been around forever, as has OPS.

ISO is closer, but still derived from traditional metrics, so it's not strictly an "advanced" statistic.

I would wager that, even 50 years ago, teams valued OBP. Maybe not as much as BA, but unless the guy's a no-speed, low-power hitter, there's a reason you value BA more than walks taken.

I think I'm missing something here.

If you believe that the Phils will not contend in 2014, what difference does it make if they sign Halladay or not? It would not be more than a one-year deal, and he's not blocking a minor leaguer who's on the cusp.

Put differently, if you do not believe the Phils will contend in 2014, who are the two guys who the team should put in next year's rotation and who have long-term potential?

Now, If you believe the Phils can reasonably be expected to contend next year, then I understand why you would not want Halladay.

BAP: I wasn't scolding people for posting on coffee. Just offered up my opinion. I can't even offer up a dissenting opinion on coffee now?

Saying the Phillies are done already no matter what they do feels premature to me and also stifles discussion. But I notice you aren't chastising those people...wonder why?

Teams for whom Roy Halladay, on a one-year, $5M contract, might make sense:

Detroit
St. Louis
Boston
Pittsburgh
Oakland
L.A. Dodgers
Tampa
Washington

"Saying the Phillies are done already no matter what they do feels premature to me and also stifles discussion."

It doesn't stifle discussion. In fact, it IS the discussion. People who are saying the Phillies won't likely contend are saying it in the context of discussing how they should approach 2014.

So since it seems to be the discussion... I'll agree that if the Phillies aren't going to compete in 2014, then there's really no reason not to sign Halladay cheaply for a year.

The only possible one is if they sign 3+ more starters (including KK, if they go that route), and he'd be blocking someone.

If his contract is such that it hampers their ability to do something else that could help in the long-term, then yes, obviously you don't do it. Similarly, if he stops a prospect from making it, then - again - you don't do it. But if the only objection is "you don't do it because he'll probably suck on a team that sucks whether or not he's on it..." I don't understand the objection.

Your worst-case scenario, so long as he is cheap, is that he mentors some of the younger pitchers and continues to put up terrible numbers - possibly getting moved to the BP in the process. I suppose his hitting the DL forever could happen again too, but even then he could still work with the younger guys, since he spent plenty of time in the dugout when injured.

Heck, he wouldn't even eat a 25-man roster slot at that point, so his potential to "block" anyone would be gone.

===> Yo new thread <===

Halladay's real problem is that since he is damaged goods, no one is likely to sign him until he proves himself to be still worthy of signing. Catch 22.

Remember the story once relayed by Mike Trout's dad, to I csn's Lisa Hillary. I'll cut and paste the blurb here. I think Mike was a couple years off, but he may have been right without even knowing it or how exactly he was right. Roy would be a perfect fit in Anaheim, but while were at it let's start the 'Trout Ticker,' leave it somewhere and forget about it for a year. I think 4 yrs till he's a FA.

Mike Trout, who should be the AL MVP, grew up in Millville, New Jersey. This you know. But what may come as a bit of a surprise to you is that, even after being drafted by the Angels, Trout was (is?) still a Phillies fan.

Speaking to Lisa Hillary, Trout’s dad explains: [CSN Philly]

Trout's father recalled a story from a few years back when in the middle of the night, Jeff heard Mike scream from his room.

“Dad, we got Roy Halladay!” Mike yelled. To which his Dad responded: "the Angels got Halladay?”

“No, the Phillies did!” Mike replied. “Son, you’re a member of the Angels. What’s with this we?!”

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