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Wednesday, October 23, 2013

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Most punchable face (no longer) in baseball.

Geez, if you're going to run these types of threads, at least include the 1980 WS win on Oct 21, 1980.

Bbboooooooooo!

WTF?!?

You guys want to kick my dog while you're here?

JR is giving us the finger?

Well double dumbass on you then!!!

From the previous thread:

"awh - Reasons I think the Phils sell are:

1. Age of some of the limited partners including Montgomery and Giles
2. Valuation of the team
3. TV contracts for content are at a high-water mark and soon cable providers will recognize the folly of some the deals they made to pay for original content which doesn't have a huge built in audience & for a sport that isn't on the upswing in terms of viewership or general interest.

I admit I don't know the dynamics of the cable/TV industry that well at all nor have I read enough on it to get a good sense on business, legislative, and technology trends."


MG, reasons I DON'T think the Phillies sell are:

1. Though organized as an LP, it's essentially a family owned business - owned by 4-5 families

2. A number of junior family members work for the team in either marketing, PR or business ops.

3. For a family business they generate huge amounts of cash with the ability to take care of not only the next generation currently working there but many generation thereafter - and that NET cash pool could increase EXPONENTIALLY with the next TV deal - that is, they're profitable with their current $35MM TV deal. Because of the luxury tax they're not going to have anything else to do with most of the additional TV money (220 - 35 = 185), possibly as much as 150 million/year except to distribute it to the partners.

4. Because of reason #3, they'll have a hard time re-investing what's left over after capital gains taxes and generating the same kind of cash flow as they'll have with the new TV deal.

5. If family(ies) members want to have fun working together how much more fun could it be than owning a major league sports franchise?

6. There are MANY privately owned businesses in the Philadelphia area that generate the same amount of revenue as the Phillies, and some that are MORE profitable. But ownership of a sports franchise - especially one of the big two (I consider the NBA and NHL second tier) - gives the owners/family members status in the community FAR beyond any other kind of business they could operate, and wouldn't have otherwise.

Is this thread designed to sell more antidepressants. Does JR have pharmaceutical stock?

Sabean signed Lincecum to a 2 yr/$35M deal. Still don't think he is a good GM especially when you look at his FA signings the last decade or so.

Alot of poor to horrendous contracts yet the Giants have managed to win 2 WS the last several years.

While devastating to me at the time, the pain of the '93 World Series loss has faded to almost nothing. Let's face it, the only reason the '93 Phillies even got that far was because they were juiced to the moon & back. I realize a lot of fans don't care about such things, but it bothers me. Besides which, those Toronto teams were very good. Losing to the defending World Champs isn't the most shameful way to go out.

While I was going through my divorce, my grandfather passed away, complicated my grief.

JR Finger posting the above, after looking at the Phils current roster yesterday, brought back that flood of emotion. Thanks.

awh - Some interesting/good points. Nepotism is a really strong force in an organization especially in the Phils' case.

I don't know where the selling story comes from but I hope its true. Giles worked for the C
Carpenters.Its beyond time for some new blood.

You know, I used to nurse a blood feud against Joe Carter. Kinda wish I still did: Today's the perfect time to fulminate about murdered childhoods and all of the ill-will that came about the non-storybook ending to the incredible campaign of the 1993 Philadelphia Phillies.

About six months ago, though, I learned that my favorite local judge went to college with Carter and that Carter saved the judge from getting his face caved in on one occasion while the judge was on a drunken bender. Unfortunately, after that, I can't hold the end of the '93 World Series against Joe Carter.

lorecore: "clout: He'll get just under $7M in arb. I don't think he'd make 10M/year in FA. Below are the last 10 FA SP who have made at least 10M/yr:

Lohse
E Jackson
Haren
Kuroda
Pettite
Dempster
Sanchez
Grienke
CJ Wilson
Buehrle

What makes you think KK has anything in common with those names?"

He actually doesn't have much in common with most of them, because he's much younger. And, of course, prices are going up, not down. He'll make at least $7M in arb, not sub 7 as you predict, and if Rube extends him, more than that per year.

Also, FYI, Edwin Jackson has a career ERA+ of 95 and is 30 years old. KK has a career ERA+ of 94 and is 28 years old.

Do you really believe that if KK is extended for more than a year, it'll be at a higher than arbitration rate?

That doesn't make any sense.

Also, Jackson's career ERA+ is misleading, since other than 2013, he hasn't posted a season ERA+ below 95 since 2007, and, since 2008, has averaged exactly a 100 (95 since start of 2010).

This post makes me want to switch to FiOS.

MG: "A lot of poor to horrendous contracts yet the Giants have managed to win 2 WS the last several years."

Exactly right. That says two things: 1. Many, if not most, FA signings are a mistake. 2. Everyone will remember the awful Zito signing. No one will remember that you picked up Cody Ross on waivers or got Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez.

Philli: "Do you really believe that if KK is extended for more than a year, it'll be at a higher than arbitration rate?

That doesn't make any sense."

In fact, it makes so much sense that if you look at most signings of arb eligible players that is exactly what happens. Why? Because the prices go up every year. Player X is worth $8M in arb this season, but if he has a good season, he'll be worth $11M in arb next year or even more if he's a FA. If you can sign him for 3 years at $9M per, you've made a good deal.

AWH/MG: aren't there a lot of tax benefits to owning a pro sports team? I.e. I think it's quite an efficient asset tax wise for storing wealth especially given the capital gains and the CF it throws off. Similarly, might selling it cause them to face large tax bills?

Second - why do we think this group has any foresight into timing a sale approparitely? If they can't understand the value of a walk (production!!), what makes you think the old geezers have any idea why cable values their product as content so highly right now??

Clout: 2015 is KK's last arb-eligible year. He is not going to get any automatic raises after this next one - assuming they go the arb route at all. A 2year, $12MM deal would still raise his annual salary by 25%. A 2+1 deal at $12MM+$8MM (vesting) would be even better, and presumably be fair for both sides.

He has not been the sort of guy you would double his current salary for the honor of paying it 3 years running. Especially while he does still have team control, and only managed 180 IP for the second time in his career this year, and averages under 6 IP/start.

Your entire theory about his earning more in the future hinges on "if he has a good season," but that's not a guarantee. In fact, I would say it's probably about as likely as not, which is probably an upgrade from what I would have said about him 2 years ago. If Kendrick has a mediocre or poor year, then he's looking at a salary reversion when he hits FA, or at most a very small raise to reach the standard FA-level for 6th-starter in 2015.

"This post makes me want to switch to FiOS."

Already have, Dickie. Couldn't get good customer service from "Concast".

"2015 is KK's last arb-eligible year."


'buster, actually it's 2014.

He'll be a free agent after next season.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2013-payroll-salaries.shtml

I still blame Fregosi.

What the hell!!?!!

I blame the complete lack of a bullpen more than Fregosi...Anderson and Williams were completely spent by the WS and there weren't any other real options.

They simply got beat by a far superior team.

"Anderson and Williams were completely spent by the WS and there weren't any other real options."

Actually, Roger Mason pitched very well that postseason. Pitched 10.2 innings and gave up 1 run on 5 hits, K'd 9 and avoided the HR ball which is what inflated his ERA during the regular season.

After being traded from SDP, he gave up 9 HR in 49.2 IP for the Phils. he had a decent WHIP, 1.263, but the gopher balls really hurt him during his time with the Phils.

In the postseason, the gopher balls disappeared, and the results showed.

FA contracts tend to be heavily weighted toward the player's most recent numbers. That's where any analogy between KK & Edwin Jackson breaks down. Aside from Lincecum, whose contract we can all agree was a special case, show me a pitcher who got a $10M per year contract coming off an 81 ERA+ season.

A good comp for KK would be Scott Feldman. He had a 94 career ERA+ heading into free agency, and he was coming off an age-29 season in which he posted an 86 ERA+. KK has a career ERA+ of 94 and is coming off an age-28 season in which he posted an 81 ERA+. Feldman got 1 year, $7M in free agency. Feldman had a little more of an injury history than KK had, but those injuries were 2 years prior, whereas KK's injury issues arose this year. All in all, I think Feldman's a pretty good comp. If he got one year, $7M, figure KK gets 1 year, $8M at most. Or if some team really likes him, maybe he gets 2 years, $15M like Joe Blanton got after his 84 ERA+ season. There is no way he'd get $10M per year.

Fregosi was a crummy manager but that bullpen wa a wreck by the playoffs.

Anderson & Williams were cooked as NEPP added and ditto D. West who had been their most consistent middle reliever all year.

Thigpen had no business being on a postseason roster yet he was and had a couple of appearances in the NLCS and WS.

Mason was the only arm they had and when you look back on that team it was the only real weakness they had. Productive lineup from top to bottom that would just wear down starters, decent power, and a very productive and deep bench. Starting staff didn't have any studs but it was solid enough 1-5 too.

"AWH/MG: aren't there a lot of tax benefits to owning a pro sports team?"

STS, I don't know.

I can't help but feel excited about the World Series starting in just a few minutes.

"I can't help but feel excited about the World Series starting in just a few minutes."

I wish I shared your excitement, but I don't. I must confess that I can't recall a single World Series in my lifetime to which I've felt more indifferent than this one. I've barely even watched any of the playoffs.

I think it's great that the Fenway crowds sing Bob Marley when Shane comes to bat.

Bottom of the 1st, and an umpiring screw-up.

Seriously, how did the ump think that Kozma ever had possession of that ball?

That's not quite how I'd say it, GBrettfan. More like "bottom of the 1st, and already the umps are throwing it for the Cardinals."

Of course, as I say that, the umps send Pedroia back out to 2B. Guess I just jinxed it.

Kozma blew that play big-time, and it's only right that the umps get the call right in the end. Still baffled at how the ump could have missed noticed it in the first place.

It stinks for Wainwright, however, because that was an easy DP ball. Now he has to face another batter with the bases loaded and 1 out.

And good teams make you pay for mistakes. 3-0.

Was the mistake Kozma's screwing up the easy DP, or was it Wainwright for letting himself get behind 2-0 to Napoli and being required to throw something hittable?

As one can make a valid argument for each.

Both were mistakes, Juums, but I blame Kozma. That should have been an easy play for him, and Wainwright would have been out of the inning.

(Having said that, when your team messes up behind you, you simply have to deal with it and pick them up by getting the outs.)

GBrett, exactly. You just CAN'T serve up a fat meatball like that.

Wow. That was bad. That one's got to be made into a gif.

Cardinals fans must be holding their heads in their hands.

In case you missed it and want to see Wainwright let the pop-up drop...

Mikey ‏@fsmikey 4m
WORLD SERIES ERROR!!!!1111 https://vine.co/v/hpZLqKPUn29

I believe this is where Gary Coleman's supposed to appear, singing about the virtues of schadenfreude. As it's been that kind of inning for the Cardinals.

Kozma and Wainwright - not their finest game.

Ruf makes that catch. No need to sign Beltran.

What a catch by Beltran to rob Ortiz of a grand slam!

That was the calmest ho-hum looking grand slam saving catch in a World Series you will ever see.

Beltran's got no style. It's not nearly dramatic enough to just make that catch. He needed to go tumbling over the wall.

LOL Muuuurgh!

im calling this WS "Sumner's Revenge." it's payback for the Missouri Compromise of 1820.
that is when Massachusets lost a big chunk of territory to create the new free state of Maine to balance the addition of MO as a slave state.

Kozma, a glove first SS in there for his defense.

Bet you Rube makes a big run at Beltran this winter...and he promptly turns into a pumpkin in 2014

And Beltran is out...ouch.

bap: And Scott Feldmen was traded for two team controlled arms with live arms that next year, in Strop and Arietta.

Obviously Feldman helped that by posting a 114 ERA+ in the first half, but thats what the Phils should be hoping for with KK next year.

In 2013, KK had roughly a 110 ERA+ going to into July. If Amaro wasn't an idiot who thought the 2013 Phillies had a chance, then we'd have a few nice young players for the future as well.

Bullit, were you the one lamenting the danger of the way in Fenway's OF, earlier this postseason? I'm inclined to agree with you.

Losing Beltran hurts the Cards, making it that much harder for them to come back from the 5-run deficit. On the other hand, they have Craig back and had been playing without him all postseason 'til now. Hopefully, Beltran will be able to come back tomorrow or at least for game 3.

timmeh just commented that the "low RF wall is dangerous." why do we have any walls in baseball that are hazardous?

It's Fenway...thus, it's tradition and history.

yes, that was me, GBf. thanks for remembering. i have a thing about wall design. if beltran is lost for the series, it will have a serious impact.

Called time in the windup and they call it?!?

WTF blue?

Kind of fun: a story about the other meetings between the Red Sox and Cardinals in the Fall Classic.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/sox-cards-classic-series-history-article-1.1493605


Also, Michael Beschloss has some great pictures of old World Series programs and photographs on his Twitter timeline today: @BeschlossDC

One nice thing about this WS...no ugly ass batting practice away jerseys...both teams just go with road gray.

Drink every time they use the word "Buzzsaw"

NEPP, about the ump granting time while Lester was in windup: I can hear Larry Anderson from here.

From MLBTR FA profile of Corey Hart:

Hart was never an elite right fielder, but after a move to first base in 2012 and what has turned into a severe knee injury, his days in the outfield could be over.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/free-agent-profile-corey-hart.html

Rube spoke to Hart and Hart said he's most comfortable in CF going forward so he'll likely be there and they'll move Revere to RF

@NEPP - also, consensus is he'll get a one-year deal, so Rube will offer two. "Sometimes you have to go the extra year."

now there is where the beard is advantageous -- the chin slide.

we could have an all gimp outfield next year.

what did they say about beltran's condition/status?

Getting x rays on his ribs...nothing definitive yet.

thanks, NEPP.

wainwright has looked mortal in 2 post-season games in a row.

re: KK arb

Matt Schwartz' arb estimator doesn't guess what KK and the Phils agree upon, just what he'd get if the case went to arb.

So if $6.6M is the number, than expect Amaro to come in the high 5's and see what Kendrick's camp does. No way he could: #1 File for $10M without it going to arb or #2 File for more than $10M and end up with an agreement at $10M.

Amaro would have to file for $4M for KK to ever win a case making $10M.

Altho he is a moron, so I should never say "never".

Lester is taking the run support and running with it tonight. Good job by him.

It's not as fun when the game is all one-sided, but I don't expect the Cardinals to just roll over. They've got Wacha facing Lackey tomorrow.

Weird to see an Ace pitcher hold a big lead against the Cardinals...

My wife and I are watching and she sees the out call at 2nd and is going 'how the heck did he have possession????' At least they got the call right later. BTW, I frigging hate the stupid 'neighborhood play'. As well as calling timeout when the pitcher is in his windup. Total BS.

All these errors, being shut out....It's like watching the Phillies. Except we'd never have robbed Ortiz of his grand slam, so the score would be 8-0.

I type that right before Ortiz hits another one out - not robbed this time.

That one landed in Beltrans hospital room.

matt adams is one of those odd birds who bat left and throw right. like our revere and asche. i wonder how that happens? you would think that growing up that way you would be able to switch hit.

My brother batted left and threw right when he played...one day when he was a kid he just said " I wanna bat left" and started doing it....kept throwing right though.

thanks NEPP. i was hoping somebody had some experience in that.

He could still somewhat hit RH but he never did...he was a natural RH by birth.

Lefties make the big bucks!

i guess if asche was a pure lefty he couldn't play 3rd base.

So the Cardinals' rally begins.

Smart move to save their closer and not let the Cards see him in an 8 run lead.

Jimmy Rollins is at the game. He Tweeted "We will get back to October"...I'd like to feel optimistic about that. We'll see how this off-season goes first, but it's hard to imagine the Phillies being able to improve enough to get to the postseason.

bullit: My dad was a LH 3Bman in the semi-pro's, but that was 90 yrs. ago.

Didn't Whitey bat left and throw right.

I remember Sam Snead saying many years ago, if he could do it all over again, he would have learned to play golf LH. Something about being stronger from the opposite side of your normal.

Cards had some chances to get back into the game in the 4th & 5th when Lester struggled a bit with his command. Just couldn't do anything in a couple of key ABs.

With the exception of Beltran's grab though, pretty damn boring game. Hopefully the rest of the series is more interesting with crisper play.

Report: Yankees have Shin-Soo Choo in their sights. Not to worry, RAJ has his brother Ah-Ah Choo in his sights.

Conway: that's interesting. and yes, whitey did bat left/throw right. that quote from snead is fascinating. my grandfather, who was left handed, taught me to play golf. and he had no problem hitting RH. i never actually tried to use his clubs. would have been a fun experiment.

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