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Monday, October 14, 2013

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This was an often-discussed topic on here at least the last 2 years Vic was with the Phils.

Vic is one of those players who if you watch everyday drives you a little crazy with some of his inconsistencies & mental mistakes. Overall, he is a solid player although you have to give the Red Sox credit for doing 2 things:

- Moving him back to RF (he hadn't been the same caliber CF)
- Convincing him to give up hitting switch-hitting. It wasn't something Vic just decided to do largely on his won.

It kind of brings up the question of how Sandberg will manage next year and how he will use Howard and Utley (and to a lesser degree JRoll) next year.

Even if Vic had stopped switch-hitting last year, there was probably a strong chance the Phils would have moved him.

Given what they did do last offseason and the FA they did try to sign, they weren't going to bring back Vic under any circumstance. Not at well north of $10M+ for 3-4 years.

That said, an outfield of Brown and/or Ruf, Revere and Victorino would be much more palatable, defensively speaking.

I wonder why the hitting guru never tried to make him bat RH only.

To be fair, it seems the only reason he ended up doing it this year was because of an injury that made it difficult to hit from the left side.

If the Phillies re-signed Vic and kept Pence, the Phillies would have been less bad in 2013 - but their future would be just as bleak.

Big "IF" here..

but if Martin can be a presence at the back end of the bullpen the Phillies will have made out quite alright in that Victorino trade.

Even if he had switched to an all right-handed approach he was still going to be gone.

We thank you, Philly!!! Hope you're enjoying Papelbon.

Why are RedSox fans thanking Philly for Vic? He went to LA first.

Maybe because he became the player he is in Philly, was only in LA for a few months.

Also, nobody ever wants to say "thank you Los Angeles." That's only about 1/4-step above saying "thank you NYC."

When Vic is discussed in all the WS television commentary and in papers, he is always noted as being a former Phillie, and for having his career of baseball success here.

I find it very, very hard to get sentimental about letting Victorino walk. (Well, trading him before he walked, but you get the point.) While I wish him the best and hope he continues to find success, his better performance this season over last comes entirely from more advantageous platoon splits (he faced LHP as a RHB 40.7% of the time, markedly higher than the actual righty/lefty proportion in the league) and a freak injury which forced him to stop switch-hitting. Unless you think that the Phils would've tried exploiting that he's better as a RHB than an LHB -- either by maximizing his opportunities to face LHP or getting him to stop switch-hitting -- he'd've most likely had another disappointing season if he'd been brought back.

And to add onto Lorecore's point, if the Phils had retained both Victorino and Pence, their future would be even bleaker than it otherwise would. Because, if Vic stays on as the CF, you never trade for Ben Revere. Regardless of what one thinks of Revere, the acquisition of him was pretty exactly what everyone's urged the franchise to do, in that organizational depth was bartered for young, MLB-ready talent with a sizable amount of team control left. (Though that organizational depth was needed this year, as pretty much everything that could've gone wrong did for the Phils pitching corps. I doubt, however, that running the Vanimal or Trevor May out there would have produced any better results than we got from Pettibone, Martin, and company.)

When he was still with the Phillies, Vic wanted a 5-year extension. If he would have been amenable to 3 years at a price affordable to the Phillies he might never have been traded - but he wanted 5 years - so they got what they could for him in a trade.

He tested FA and found that there wasn't a 5 year deal available to a 30+ speed guy.

My guess is that he took the 3/39 from the Bosox instead of the 4/44 from the Tribe because he reasoned that, if he has a good 3 year run in Boston, he can get more than 1/5 in that 4th year. Plus, he set the bar higher on his AAV.

That said, as much as I like Vic as a player (for more than sentimental reasons - if he were still in Philly he would have been their best OF by far; he had a 5.6 fWAR, 5th in MLB among OF, and a 6.1 bWAR), a 5 year extension for a player who relies on speed and who is North of 30 is too long, so if he wouldn't agree to something shorter then they did the right thing when they traded him.

I'll always like him as a player and appreciate what he did when he was in Philly, and vividly remember him jumping on the pile in 2008.

Good luck, Shane!

Juums, quick question:

Not that it makes any difference, but do you think Revere will ever be as good at his peak as was Victorino?

IMHO, no, but I'll be happy if he proves me wrong.

Revere won't ever have Shane's power, but I definitely think it's possible that combining his speed with a better BA/OBP than Shane has (he's having the second-best year of his career, and yet his career average is still .277/.342) could lead to an overall equivalent RE24.

I don't think any of Revere's individual years will end up as good as Victorino's best, but I could see their general trajectories being similar. I doubt he posts an .847 OPS (Shane's best), but I think he can manage a .770-ish one.

Awh:
This is really the problem with counterfactuals, isn't it? Had Vic been content for the deal he got from Boston from the Phils, he might indeed have never been traded. But it's also likely that, in such a case, he'd've remained the starting CF and thus undercut the big reason why he was so valuable in Boston this year, as his RF defense has been stellar for the Red Sox. Given how dismal the OF was for the Phils this year, a repeat of his 2.9 fWAR from last season would've likely been welcome. But he also likely wasn't ever going to flirt with a 5+ WAR season again without the chain of events that unfolded in Boston.

Re: Revere, I don't think he'll ever be as good as Vic was when Vic was at his best, because the bats are just too different: Revere's never going to have a triple-digit ISO, though I think Revere can be a .300/.350/.350 with a little bit of work on his bunting. I think Revere already is a better base-stealer and that he's also at least as good a CF defender, though it remains to be seen whether he'll continue to be.

Revere has no power and won't ever have a .770ish OPS unfortunately.

Only question is whether he hits ~.270 or closer to ~.300. Where I would like to see some improvement from Revere is defensively in CF (especially on his routes) and on his % SB/baserunning.

Both are areas where I could see him improving a bit next year and would help boost his overall value a bit.

Juums: I would say that Revere's as good or better with the glove, but his lack of an arm makes his overall contribution probably slightly lesser than "prime" Victorino.

Of course, even as recently as 2011 Shane's arm was less ++ than it had been, and he started way too far in most of the time. I can think of at least 5 instances in 2012 alone where he got caught out running straight backwards only to have the ball bounce on the warning track before he could get to it.

"Had Vic been content for the deal he got from Boston from the Phils,..."


Juums, I stated "...at a price affordable to the Phillies...". IMHO they would never have gone as high as 13MM/yr., even on a three year deal.

If Revere starts leaning into pitches and can win a batting title in a career year, that might drive his OBP up so high that he could sniff a .770ish OPS. I admit, I'd love to see him post a .330/.400/.380 career year, simply to see the national sports media try to reconcile his having a higher OBP than SLG.

Nick Carfado has a post up on the Boston Globe website, where he states that r00b has tried to pry Stanton loose at least 10 times.

However, this little anecdote was at the bottom of the post, and for all the folks hell-bent on improving the pitching is lieu of the offense (this means YOU rr00b), I hope you're paying attention:


“Over the last five seasons, the Braves have the best ERA in baseball at 3.44, and did not get past the LDS in any of those years.”


link: http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/10/11/david-price-price-tag-may-getting-too-high/2kG09tIB4AQ9Z5Y6Ck0z2H/story.html

MG: I don't think .770-ish is that preposterous, if he has one year where he gets a few good luck bounces. He put up a .734 OPS in AA at age 21.

His speed would let him turn deep singles into doubles on even slightly-above-average corner outfielders. There are almost no outfielders who could stop him from reaching 2nd if they have to turn around to play the ball.

Now, it definitely would take a full year of really good bounces... But he's 25 now, and has improved every year he's been in the majors. Especially if he's leading off, or at the least the guy in front of him is fast as well.

BTW Juums, nothing would have stopped the Phillies from keeping Vic AND trading for Revere. They were never part of the same deal.

They could have taken a look at both in ST and moved one of them to RF.

Brown/Revere/Vic could have been the OF, but they would have had payroll issues, chiefly because of the other mega-contracts.

Ah Shane we miss you. Yes he made a few mental gaffs but overall he was a solid player. Played hard gave 100%. I would have loved the Phils kept him at the 3 year deal. I think the problem was Shane would occasionally let his boneheadness take over. Thats ok though just showed his intensity. Who gives a flying frack what the pundits or Law or whomever these people are most fans wanted Vic back.

I would pay extra money to see Pence hustle and demand my money back when I see Rollins hit a pop up and dog it!

Awh:
Mea culpa. The point remains the same: Had Vic's demands been more amenable to the Phils, he probably wouldn't have been shipped out. But there's a serious causality issue if you want Vic and Revere in the same outfield: The only reason the Phils traded for Revere was because their Plan A for the vacant spot in CF, B.J. Upton, was majorly overpaid by the Braves. (Who, gloriously, looked like goobers for their trouble.) If the Phils still have their core CF in Vic, what motivates them to trade for Revere? As Vic, even after his disappointing 2012, was still a slightly above-average defensive CF, making it unlikely that they'd purposely move him off of his position. I suppose they might've arrived at trying to trade for a smallball CF while moving Vic to RF after all else failed in the search for a corner OF bat, but that's an awfully bold supposition for a rather orthodox and downright hidebound organization like the Phillies. My point remains that, while Vic would've been a marked upgrade over the likes of Laynce Nix and Delmon Young, his incredible 5+ WAR year was due to the unique circumstances of his landing in Boston.

I think that bit about the Braves' ERA is an interesting tidbit, though. I suspect one could build a rather sizable portfolio of examples in which good pitching beats good hitting in aggregate, but will only do so over the course of a season, as only in that sample size will each of your individual pitchers have enough appearances to matter statistically. Because of the shortness of each postseason series, good pitching cannot be relied upon to beat good hitting, due to all of the wonkiness associated with small sample sizes and the human foibles of players in the postseason.

hessie, that's a good point. Would the team have been better off in 2013 and going forward with Galvis/Pence or Rollins/Yak?

Too bad for the Dodgers that Hanley Ramirez is hurting. Apparently, Michael Young is taking grounders at SS.

GBrettfan:
I hope you're kidding. As...well, is it possible for the Don Mattingly to rub any more salt in the wound of the Dodgers' impending NLDS loss than to run Michael Young out there at SS in a must-win Game 3? Is he trying to get fired? Aren't NL teams supposed to carry two back-up IFs, one of whom is a competent defensive SS?

Though I'd also admire Mattingly if he were just trolling folks, as you know there're seizures being had on Twitter about this.

@GBrettfan: Why wouldn't they start Dee Gordon over MYoung?

Maybe they want Young to take fielding practice at SS just in case and don't intend to start him.

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 36m
WAT RT @JimBowdenESPNxm Michael Young taking grounders at shortstop

Per an article at mlb.com dated yesterday, Punto would replace Ramirez at SS,

Per the Dodgers Tweets today:
* The CT scan Hanley Ramirez took yesterday showed a fracture on the 8th rib. He is a game time decision.
* Hanley Ramirez said he will play tonight. "I owe too much to this team and this city (not to play)."
* A look at the armor @HanleyRamirez will be wearing. pic.twitter.com/yjUhBiq0Tw

" I suppose they might've arrived at trying to trade for a smallball CF while moving Vic to RF after all else failed in the search for a corner OF bat, but that's an awfully bold supposition for a rather orthodox and downright hidebound organization like the Phillies."

Juums, on that point you are absolutely correct. Despite all his lip service to being "creative" this coming offseason, thinking outside of the box (which is what creativity is, no?) is not something this Phillies organization does.

Would they have played Choo in CF the way the Reds did? IMO, no, the thought would never have occurred to them.

Awh:
Well, if Amaro did somehow shake loose Choo last off-season, he'd've never had to contemplate playing him in CF, because we had a need for a corner OF, too.

But your point is well taken. I'd disagree with it, however, but only due to Choo's exact circumstances. Teams routinely have to wrestle with the situation of wanting to get someone's bat into a lineup while not having room at their natural position. Therefore, it didn't require much of a logical leap to move an average defending corner OF to CF, despite his playing the position less well. (This is helped also by the fact that most average-or-better defending corner OFs have spent some amount of time at CF earlier in their careers.)

It's a whole other kettle of fish to move a guy who's a competent, if not great, defender from his natural position so as to acquire someone who really is a good defender at that natural position and maximize defensive efficiency at the player's new position. (Especially when that someone's bat profiles better at the natural position.) That logical leap requires a certain understanding of analytics: Not necessarily an embrace of sabermetrics, but at least an intuitive grasp of what underlies them. And the Phils have never been the sort of organization that's sought to cultivate personnel with that kind of intuitive grasp.

Juums, we agree.

"Teams routinely have to wrestle with the situation of wanting to get someone's bat into a lineup while not having room at their natural position."

This is exactly what they did with Ruf when they "tried" him in RF. However, I really don't think it was a real tryout, because just about anyone could have told you prior to the attempt that he wouldn't be "optimal" out there. And I believe the Phillies FOols knew it too.

As I've stated before, I think they threw Ruf out there to mask the mistake they made when they brought _elm_n in and moved Brown to LF. What they should have done is move Brown back to RF and Ruf to LF, but that would have been a tacit admission of the error in their judgment, and as everyone knows, the Phillies do not make player personnel mistakes.

Not r00b and the FOols.

i think the RF wire wall had something to do with brown wanting to stay in left. i can't blame him. but if we could "hide" ruf in left it would take pressure off the need get another right fielder. spend the money on pitching.

"Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. has tried at least 10 times to pry Stanton loose, with no luck. Tough sell inside the division."

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/10/11/david-price-price-tag-may-getting-too-high/2kG09tIB4AQ9Z5Y6Ck0z2H/story.html

Hat tip to Bill Baer for seeing this as reported by Nick Cafardo in the Boston Globe last week.

It would be kind of funny if it wasn't so sad that this guy was the GM of the team I root for. Montgomery may be the interloper who meddles too frequently in personnel decisions but more and more I think Amaro is just flat out incompetent and in head over his head as a GM.

Funny Tweet after Puig celebrated his hit:

Jayson Werth's Beard ‏@JWerthsBeard 4m
Close your eyes, Brian McCann

thanks for the link, MG. i'm not sold on stanton. the fact that hamstring rehab turned into two sore knees this year is a concern.

"Fired Phillies skipper Charlie Manuel is still trying to decide whether to accept an offer from his former club to do a combination of PR work, player development, and advising of GM Ruben Amaro Jr. He talked about his decision on MLB Network Radio with hosts Brad Lidge (his former closer) and Jeff Joyce. (Audio link.) Manuel said that he wants to stay in baseball, and particularly emphasized that he "still want[s] to manage."

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/10/managerial-notes-cubs-renteria-martinez-mattingly.html

That play was so close, that I don't think one can quibble with the ump either way.

Trevor May gets roughed up for 4 hits and a run in his two innings, but punches out Altherr while doing so.

Nice win by the Dodgers, especially beating Wainright.

I wonder if, had Puig actually run out of the box when he hit that triple whether he would have had a shot at an inside-the-park HR?

Dodgers are still in a bind, though. Another "must" win game coming up.

series doesn't start until the homes team loses.

We knew Amaro was pursuing Stanton hard. I'm not sure what that "report" told us that we didn't already know, or why it would make you think he's more incompetent than you did before.

Props to Hanley for playing with a cracked rib.

Although I'm not sure it couldn't have ended up getting further injured, even with that protective wrap on.

I am not a stat geek but half of his value was in being an elite RF. Getting HBP 18 times certainly helped (he stands very close to the plate as a RHH).

But I think why Boston 'overpaid' for Vic (more than Clev) was an insurance for Ellbury leaving this year (or being hurt). Vic could certainly move to CF with above average defense. Ellsbury gave them some power so the Ellsbury/Victorino combo OF was probably fairly equal to other CF/RF combos.

Not sure if Vic with improve with more RH at-bats or if pitchers will find more weaknesses with more time to prepare. But if moved to CF his history seems to indicate his WAR benefit on defense will significantly decrease.

They should already have all the info on Vic.

Phx: This season the avg RF had a .760 OPS while the avg CF had a .730 OPS.

His defensive drop from elite RF to above avg CF should be accounted for from his offensive positional jump.

His 2013 OPS+ would rank 5th of players with >66% of their PA as a CF, but only 10th in RF.

Why are we even bothering with Shane? He is gone. Next.

"Why are we even bothering with Shane?"


What else are we going to chat about? r00b's great moves?

Vic remains of interest because he's an ex-Phillie, he's done well, and he's still playing - unlike the Phillies.

awh is correct and it's also important to note that the same crowd calling for all the vets to be dumped, thought dumping Vic and Pence for prospects was great too. Idiots delight. Of course, those posters now pretend that never happened, kinda like how BAP pretends he never heard of Erik Kratz.

clout: would you rather have Vic stayed around in 2012 and the Phillies finish .500, or would you rather have Vic left in 2012 and the Phillies finish .500 and have Ethan Martin as a reliever in 2014 and beyond?

Clout:
I admit, I was just starting to lurk around Beerleaguer when Pence was sent to the Giants, but were there really folks who welcomed dealing him for pennies on the dollar? My hazy recollection was one of collective disgust at Pence's being shipped out for salary relief as the most apt capstone to the whole sordid saga that was his time with the club.

And no, there isn't another alternative. The Phillies had every possible chance to re-sign Victorino and did not do it. So don't give me a BS answer how trading Vic and letting him walk as a FA aren't the only choices. Play make believe elsewhere if you don't want to answer the question.

And no, trading Victorino for someone better than Ethan Martin isn't an option either. That was the trade they made.

Neither is keeping Victorino and making the playoffs (he hit even worse in LA).

Those are the top 3 BS responses I would expect you to make to avoid answering the question, however I'd never doubt your creativity to find another way to back out of answering it. Looking forward to it.

Dugan scratched from AFL with turf toe. He sat out each of his team's games.

Cameron Perkins will be added to replace him

The idea of Charlie "advising" RAJ scares the crap out me. How many more "advisors" does this front office need?

RAJ/Stanton: I consider it a positive that RAJ keeps calling MIA about him.

BedBeard: I imagine Charlie would have liked to "advise" Amaro over the last off-seasons.

Lore, I think clout is also referring to the "dump 'em all" crowd, the ones who want all the vets dumped - Mayberry, Rollins, Howard, Papelbon, Chooch, Lee, etc. There are even some here who were calling for dumping Utley before he signed his team friendly extension.

My POV to that line of thinking has been to ask: What's (Who's) the alternative?

Over at The Good Phight they do imaginary exit interviews (r00b interviewing the player) with Phillies players. The one for Mayberry is here:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013-phillies-exit-interviews/2013/10/12/4831950/2013-phillies-exit-interview-john-mayberry-jr

Imagine-erry's last line is a classic, and is probably going to wind up true:

"My guess is that next year I hook on with a smart organization, face a lot of left-handers, only play in an outfield corner, and make you look like a total blithering idiot for having released me."

And this from the body of the article earlier:

"So when Mayberry frustrates you again next year in another uniform, as he hits something gapward off Antonio Bastardo or Jake Diekman or a $2 million lefty arm to be named later and released in July, remember where the ire rightly belongs."

Mayberry is Schierholtz all over again.

And joecatz had a good comment:

"It’s not just that he’s misused. That’s a big part of it, but close to 2mm for a RH hitting OF who can’t hit lefties with Ruf around for 25% of that is just bad spending management."

But the best comment was from ChicagoPhanatic:

"Sometimes I think RAJ would try to eat broth with a fork and steak with a spoon and decide both were useless and throw them both away."

'buster, great point. If Charlie had been advising r00b, could the results have been any worse?

This is a great post on Revere's historic lack of power:

http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/10/15/4840910/will-ben-revere-ever-hit-a-home-run

"Charlie Manuel is still trying to decide whether to accept an offer from his former club to do a combination of PR work, player development, and advising of GM Ruben Amaro Jr."

One assumes Cholly been "advising" Rube for the past few years, specifically about which players to obtain and which to discard. Either the advice is bad or Rube aint listening.

I would prefer Cholly manage another team, rather than have him as an advisor for the Phillies. Rube gets enough bad advice already. It has to be bad advice, why else would he make such bad decisions? He's a brilliant man, right?

awh: Obviously, with the longer season, massively more games, vastly different FA structure and more extensive minor-league system, I can understand why baseball doesn't work quite like football vis-a-vis head coaches making personnel acquisition/drafting decisions.

That said, I can imagine more than one manager wishes he had the power to "go get our guy" like a number of NFL head coaches have. Even the best communication between GM and manager isn't going to convey all the nuances of interest that the manager himself could use to determine just what he's willing to give up in exchange for "The One."

Perhaps it would be better for Charlie to be a "special adviser" to David Montgomery? For all the harping on Amaro, a large number of us do seem to believe that the final yea/nay always comes from the owners... And that they're more active than simply saying "yea, verily, that seems worth it."

Interesting Jeff Passan article about the turnaround of the Tigers from 2003, when they were terrible. It was linked by Phillies' beat writer Chris Branch.

http://sports.yahoo.com/news/mlb--from-a-119-loss-team-to-a-perennial-power--dave-dombrowski-has-spun-magic-for-tigers-072120156.html

Well, if Rube doesn't make any decisions, I guess it doesn't matter how many advisors he has.

Even as we pound the keyboards Ben Revere is doing nothing but eating steak and pumping iron. No more throwing like a girl and weak rollers to second base for him.

Revere isn't the type of player you start if you want to make the playoffs or be a legitimate contender. He's a guy that is a starter on a 2nd division club that wins 70 games. Good news for him job security wise is that he's exactly where he belongs in the Phillies outfield.

Revere had a great season in 2013 statistically and he still had a sub-.700 OPS with mediocre to average defense in CF. People can point to a guy like Juan Pierre as a comp but its simply not a good one...Pierre had significantly more power and was a much better SB threat. He also did every little thing well from baserunning to being a great bunter, etc etc.

clout: Since you managed to inject my name into the thread even though I haven't posted in like a week, I feel compelled to address your post. Kratz was awful this year. Satisfied?

The Mayberry argument by the Good Phight falls apart when you say "Remember how good he was in 2011." I thought we wanted the team to get away from relying on past performance?

Here is the thing about Mayberry. He stinks. Flat out stinks. It isn't misguided vitriol or an unusual amount of hatred. It is disgust with a 4th outfielder who has posted an 86 OPS+ in two consecutive seasons.

If you get a starting corner outfielder you are replacing a 30 year old about to make 1.7 million and gave you this:

2012- .245/.301/.395/.695 with 14 home runs, 46 RBI and a .811 OPS vs lefties

2013- .227/.286./391/.677 with 11 home runs, 39 RBI and a .756 OPS vs lefties

with a 27 year old making a couple hundred thousand who gave you this:

2012- .333/.351/.727/1.079 with 3 home runs and 10 RBI and a 1.326 OPS vs lefties

2013- .247/.348/.458/.806 with 14 home runs and 30 RBI and a .656 OPS- which was a clear outlier based off his minor league career.

The pearl clutching and slurping of Mayberry is over the top. He is going to make a relatively large amount of money based on his actual value to the team and we are probably even upgrading the team by making this switch.

bap, Kratz has the same problem at the MLB level that Mayberry has: He's not good enough to be a starter, but when forced by injury (or suspension) into an everyday role, he gets exposed too often.

He posted a .225/.308/.426 line after April, which incidentally, is when he stopped playing everyday. Coincidence?

The most starts he made in a month after that were 13 in May.

I don't know, maybe it means nothing because of the small sample size, maybe Kratz just had an off year, maybe MLB caught up to him?

"The Mayberry argument by the Good Phight..."

TTI, what argument did they make? I thought they were just doing a humorous imaginary exit interview with the guy, though they did make a point about him being mis-used.

"2013- .247/.348/.458/.806 with 14 home runs and 30 RBI and a .656 OPS..."

TTI, I'm not sure what you mean. that slash line doesn't add up to .656.

awh: It is a veiled defense of him. Don't know how anyone could read that and not see it.

Either way- the premise still holds...Mayberry stinks.

awh: .656 against lefties. I missed it in the typing but it was clear from the context that is what I was saying.

Your pearl clutching over Mayberry creating a blind spot?

"Kratz has the same problem at the MLB level that Mayberry has: He's not good..."

Just stop there.

Are Kratz and Mayberry the worst players in the entire league? No, they are not.

Unfortunately for them, not being the worst isn't a good reason to keep their jobs on this team, as much as their apologists like to refer to it as why they shouldn't be let go.

Again let me reiterate for awh and those like him who are already pining for Mayberry.

He will make ~1.7 million dollars, and is a bad player who has one skill (hitting lefties) and the potential replacement is a guy who will make like a third of 1.7 million, and is a player who can hit lefties as good if not better than the guy he would be replacing.

Please give me a rational explanation for why we should hang on to Mayberry. What does he bring that Ruf doesn't that is of complete value to us?

Oh, and TTI, in case you're wondering why I included joecatz comment in my original post is that I happen to AGREE that Ruf should be retained over Mayberry, principally because Ruf has demonstrated some ability to hit RHP, both in the minors and at the MLB level. Mayberry stunk against RHP in the minors too, so he is what he is.

The real problem with the Phillies OF is that only Brown really good enough to be an MLB starter, unless they let Ruf play LF.
Revere I fear that NEPP's post about above is going to be proven true, and I like the guy. But unless he's getting on base at a considerably better pace than league average, he's best suited to a backup/defensive replacement role.

Gillies was supposed to be the CF of the future - at least that's what I believe they were thinking when they asked that he be included in the Lee-to-Seattle deal.

The problem is the Phillies gave a job to Benny Looper, who Seattle apparently let go because he wasn't very good at his job, and they allowed him to have a great deal of influence as to the prospects they got back for Lee.

And Looper still, IIRC, has a job with the Phillies.

On Vic: Like him a lot. (Great first name) Was a little disappointed that he was traded, but I understand what Rube was trying to do. (not that I think he did it well) As for re-signing him then... $13M/year was too much. Still is. Especially considering the large sunk costs elsewhere on the team.

On Revere: Like him a lot. He's good for a cheap player. Helps you use that money to fill other holes. Also he's just hitting his prime so he may improve even more. (higher BA, better SB%, and better bunting skills)

Here's my comment/reaction to trading Pence last summer...I feel it is quite succinct:


No word yet on whether or not Brian Sabean was kind enough to toss in a reach-around after he was done with Rube.

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 02:07 PM

Yup, everyone was happy he was traded for pennies on the dollar...yessiree.

What if the Phillies decided to sign Jacoby Ellsbury and move Revere to left into a platoon of sorts with Ruf? Would that please people? How about spending DODGERS DOLLARS and signing SHIN SHOO CHOO?!?!

I think the target is a corner outfielder but Amaro's comments last week indicate they may look at a center fielder and move Revere to left.

On Pence- I didn't like him as an Astro, didn't like him as a Phillie, and don't like him as a Giants.

We gave up too much for him and didn't get near enough. My sheer hatred for him means I view those trades as even being more slanted than most.


The most glaring thing this shows me is that once Rube determines he wants to do something (in this case: Trade Hunter Pence) he will do it regardless of the final cost.

Posted by: NEPP | Tuesday, July 31, 2012 at 02:21 PM

Another great point I made that day.

Honestly, I didnt find a single poster happy with dumping Pence for salary relief.

NEPP: "Pierre was a much better SB threat [than Revere].

Disagree. PA per SB by age:

23: Pierre 14.8, Revere 14.1
24: Pierre 13.6, Revere 13.8
25: Pierre 11.5, Revere 15.2

Pierre comes out on top, but they are very similar and its heavily skewed by Pierre being the better offensive player and getting on base more often. Also Revere has better SB/CS ratios as well.

Agree that Pierre > Revere so far in their career, but I don't think its by much and I don't think its out of Revere's reach to catch up/surpass over the next few years.

Given that Ellsbury's agent is Boras, I dont see him taking the type of deal that we would need/want him to take. He's also injury prone. Otherwise, he'd be a great fit if it kicked Revere to LF or into a 4th OF role.

It makes too much sense though so I doubt it happens.

Other concerns with Ellsbury:

1. Old...already will be 30 next year and his game is based on speed.
2. LHB like everyone else in the lineup.
3. Damned, damned inconsistent. Which one are we getting, the guy with the 129 OPS+ this year or the 140 OPS+ in 2011 or the guy that was absolutely terrible in 2012 due to injuries or just average offensively in 2008-2009? No way to tell and a huge risk financially given that he probably wants a 4-5 year deal.

That's a fair point on their respective SB numbers, lorecore.

If the Phillies acquire Ellsbury, or another CF who is better than Revere - the Phillies technically should trade Revere for a corner OF instead of play him there.

Its strictly a hypothetical since who knows who is available and what value could be had, but logic would suggest that Revere's value as a CF is much higher than in a corner - so another team in need of a CF should be able to supply us a player who is a better fit for the corner.

"Honestly, I didnt find a single poster happy with dumping Pence for salary relief."

Nobody was. The idiotic part is that they didn't HAVE to trade him at the deadline - he was still under team control and could have been shopped in the offseason.

I think you're right: They moved him during the season just to save a couple of months salary.

A st00pid and shortsighted move by Dave Montgomery & Company.

Another example: The aforementioned Lee trade to Seattle because they didn't want to pay him, and thought he was redundant once they had Halladay. They may very well traded away another WS title with that move (would they have beaten the Giants in 2010 with Lee?), but their talent evaluation is so good they got tremendous players in return for Lee.


What type of trade value would Revere really have? He doesnt hit well enough to be a corner OF and his defense in CF left quite a bit to be desired last year.

Nepp - You could have quit after noting Ellsbury's agent is Boras, as could have the dude who badly wanted Choo. Zero percent chance of either under this regime.

Re Pence: there were people who convinced themselves that it was OK to dump Pence and Vic because the Phils were going to hire a bunch of top talent and blow through the salary cap this year. Laughable but true.

NEPP, good point. At this point, could the Phillies even get value back for Revere equal to what they gave up to get him?

I would say that no, they couldn't given that it was still thought he'd be an elite defensive CF before the Worley trade and now he's shown that he's likely not.

It was still a good trade given that Worley sucks and Revere is a solid MLB player (albeit probably more of a 2nd division starter or 4th OF on a good team) and Worley is just atrociously bad.

You can't be an "elite" or even good CF if you can't hold Placido Polanco at 1B on a routine fly ball to CF.

One could also make the case- not sure exactly how valid it would be- that Revere has not reached his full potential yet in the majors.

NEPP, true, but they also gave up May, though he hasn't shown anything either. Maybe they ought to think about converting him to a reliever?

That's very possible too...though one's arm strength is unlikely to improve so that limits his defensive upside regardless. Offensively, his power might tick up a little bit taking him from historically low power to just really low power. If he can hit for really high average (which would mean working on his bunting and IFH ability) and play average defense, he's a solid role player.

There's very little margin for error in his skillset is all.

TTI, yeah, maybe Revere will actually hit a HR some day.

Cohen linked this article:

http://www.baseballnation.com/2011/9/28/2455879/ben-revere-inside-the-park-home-run

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