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Tuesday, October 29, 2013

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Hey, at least we won. Imagine how it feels to be a Rangers or Tigers fan over the past five years...

If you told me starting in 2008 that I'd see a WFC that October, but never win again and be below .500 in 5 years - I'd say sign me up!

Amen, LorecorE.

Glad I got to see at least one championship in my lifetime. I guess I could've technically "seen" the 1983 Sixers, but I was all of a month old, so...

OT: "The Kimbrel Rule" on the MLBTR Arbitration calculator was a pretty good read. Basically said that his numbers are so ridiculously better than anyone else ever, the model breaks and they just have to throw out the analysis, and instead take the highest ever number awarded and simply add $1M to it.

Here's the Post Game thread from after the game:

http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2008/10/post-9/comments/page/1/

Beerleaguer's arm in arm, dropping their enmity for some rejubilation

Here's Game 5 part 2 game thread:
http://www.beerleaguer.com/beerleaguer/2008/10/post-8.html

Yeah, I remember when so many people hated the Eagles model that included lots of playoff appearances, years of unprecedented success, but no title. So many people said they'd trade a decade of being terrible for 1 title.

Hopefully we're not paying off on that deal now...

KAS: I never really understood that mindset.

I'd rather have an exciting product to watch every year than prolonged irrelevance and a championship. Even if it were a foregone conclusion that relevance != championship.

I had completely forgotten Pedro Feliz was on those teams. Wow. And had some big hits!

How many more games would have been won with Pedro's glove the last couple of years? Sometimes it's hard to appreciate what you have until it's gone.

Jr: To be fair, how many more would we have had with a healthy Placido Polanco?

Feliz was good there, but not Polanco good.

Hamm: Very interesting. Also interesting: 95% of those screen names are long gone.

I remember being there, behind home plate in the second to last row, section 4-something, with my dad. Some things specifically stood out:

1) Burrell's double off the wall, thinking that could be his last at-bat as a Phillie, with the place going nuts and giving him a standing O as he came out for pinch runner Bruntlett,

2) Watching Balfour completely unravel as fans were mercilessly chanting "BAL-FOR! BAL-FOR!" for like three consecutive batters. I think Jenkins singled, Rollins sacrificed, and Werth singled home Jenkins. I mean, Balfour just fell apart and we all felt like we had something to do with it (real or perceived, it was a crazy moment),

3) After the Rays went down in the 7th, the crowd started chating "Six more outs! Six more outs!". That's when it started to feel possible, and

4) The crowd noise after the final out. The crowd was so loud during the game, but it reached another decible level after the last out. I will forever know the definition of "pandemonium". Just crazy.

5) The scene driving home after the game, seeing people climbing street lamps, 20 people dancing on top of a van, it was like Beyond Thunderdome.

Honestly, even if they won it again in 2014, I have a hard time believing it would be as crazy and memorable as 2008. Don't get me wrong it would be awesome, but 2008 was special.


3) After the

***Also interesting: 95% of those screen names are long gone.***

Some of us are still around.

I was in Lancaster at the time, and after the final out I couldn't contain myself in the house, so I ran out into the street and ran around whooping for a while. Didn't hear any noise from the bar a block down, and nobody else came out, so I just looked like a fool. Even my girlfriend (transplanted Bostonian who didn't like baseball, but sort of likes the Phillies now) thought I was crazy for going out in shorts and a t-shirt in that weather.

Didn't really care, though. Totally worth it.

WSJ, great on-the-spot recap there. Watching from a different time zone, I can only imagine the scene there in person. At home, I had tears rolling down my face and all I could think was "finally." This was in the midst of my (now former) marriage starting to go south, and it still resonates as one of the happiest moments of my 35 years on this planet.

I do think that the decades of frustration helped to fuel that celebratory fire. I think you're right, winning again soon after wouldn't be the same feeling (ask any Boston fan), but it sure as hell beats the alternative for a couple decades.

That was probably the most stressful 3 innings in baseball history for me.

"Some of us are still around."

Some of us even have multiple identities!


Willard, funny you mention that. In 2004, when the Red Sox won the WS, I too was going through a divorce. I like to feel their winning helped (it certainly didn't hurt!)

"That was probably the most stressful 3 innings in baseball history for me."

For me, in 2004, the WS was almost an anticlimax. After the Sox came back and won the ALCS after trailing 3-0, it almost felt like a letdown. Or exhaustion of the adrenal gland :)

Despite how much fun that was, you can't downplay the fact that the team underachieved. They were a juggernaut in prime position to win 2 or 3 WS titles. SF won twice in 3 years, and either STL or BOS will win their second or third in a short span of time. We can only imagine what might have been.

I had the great privilege of being at CBP to see it happen. A memory I will always cherish.

Eh. The playoffs are so difficult to consistently win, I honestly don't feel that cheated. The '09 Phillies had 1 pitcher worthy of the post-season, and '09 Yankees were... Really, really good.

2010 came down to a few plays against a team that was constructed pretty similarly to our own.

2011 was an awesome season to watch, and after a 1-run difference in the NLDS we lost to the team that - based on the WS - seemed almost destined to win that year.

More rings would have been nice, but I loved the ride, so I can't complain too hard.

"We can only imagine what might have been."

Fear not. As long as Mini Mart is on standby at Lehigh Valley, anything can happen!

The most amusing part of that WFC thread is that, just when you think we've finally reached a moment when all Beerleaguer posters can join together in harmony, a guy shows up to troll the board by insisting that sports celebrations are for losers.

Another cool thing I remember (and God this is painful to write because the Phillies are now so far removed from glory) - for like two weeks after the win, there was a 99% chance that anyone wearing Phillies gear in the street would be high fived by another random Phillies fan. Just pure joy among all kinds of people.

Also, any time a World Series replay was shown in a bar, a crowd would inevitably gather and cheer as though it was a live game. Particularly on the South Street bars. It really was an incredible two month period of bliss.

Basically, the exact opposite of the Philly sports scene now.

Much like the early '80s, the aughts were honestly pretty good for Philly sports. Lots of Flyers playoff runs, Eagles making it almost every year, Phillies dominating in the later years, even the Sixers making some serious runs once or twice.

It sucks that the reverse is happening all at once, but - much like the late '80s/early '90s - sometimes that's the price you pay.

Caught the final out at Jake's Steaks in SF and it was mobbed with ex-Philadelphians who overflowing on the corner of Lombard and Buchanan making all kinds of noise.

'buster, I'm not a hockey or NBA fan, so I don't care much about the Sixers or Flyers. I also didn't spend my early childhood in the Philly area, so I'm not an Eagles fan.

But I love baseball and love the Phillies. I just wish this ownership group had managed the last couple of years better so we had a bit more short term hope.


I wonder if LAA would take Brown, Biddle, Franco, Severino Gonzalez, Martin and a RP for Mike Trout? Rumor has it they're shopping Trumbo and Bourjos and are looking for young pitching. Do we have enough pitching to put together a trade for Trout?

The way I played out too was fitting too. The '08 Phils looked dead in the water in mid-August and roared to life around Labor Day to finish 25-5.

Caught a huge break too in catching a depleted Brewers team with a spent Sabathia, a more favorable matchup in the Dodgers than the Cubs (who were heavily favored in the NLDS) and the Rays instead of the Red Sox.

For once, things just lined up for the Phils and they were on the end of the clutch hits and an epic postseason run by a starter (Hamels).

Left-handed, no?

Also, at that price, he's likely to cost too much in talent.

awh: I'm not much of an NBA fan, but I enjoyed watching the Sixers during their brief run a couple of years ago. First time in a while watching basketball on TV was fun again. Hockey I'm more interested in, but since moving to the Baltimore area the only way for me to get Flyers games is to buy NHL Center Ice, and no way am I paying for 2 live sports subscriptions/year.

Honestly, I disliked the Pence trade, but I can't complain too much about 2011 otherwise. 2012 was the natural culmination of so much time near the top and a couple of injuries on top of things.

This year was the first one that was legitimately difficult to watch for me (made all the worse by also being the first year I'd had to pay for MLBTV to see Phillies games). Next year almost can't help but be better, unless the Nats simply demolish us, or we trade away the entire team (minus Howard/Rollins, since they're not moving) for prospects.

awh - Trumbo or Aoki would fill a glaring need (corner OF) but I would almost rather see the Phils get Aoki although Melvin would likely take RAJ to the cleaners.

Also can't see Amaro making a trade for a player like Aoki either. Amaro wants his white whale (a power hitting corner OF) and Trumbo fits that bill to a T.

I hope Amaro doesn't plan on starting Ruf next year in RF but instead uses him as a guy who starts at 1B/LF/DH and gets 350-400 ABs.

Even last year, Brown's splits vs LHP were nothing to write home about (.252/.296/.429 with 6 in 159 PAs and his career numbers stink .235/.291/.379 with 7 in 269 PAs). If the Phils really want to win and aren't concerned about how Howard/Brown react, there is no reason why Ruf shouldn't be in the lineup vs LHP starter and as in their Interleague games.

I'm not much for looking back. The recent run of post season play and a world series was great. But not great enough to cover up the fact that Rube has no idea what he's doing and we're in for a long, dark, cold Winter of baseball for however long he occupies the GM seat. And most likely the same for whomever replaces him, since Eddie Wade is still in the organization and we know how Monty loves retreads.

As much as the great years were great, if Philly fans are continually reliving those meager scraps of occasional competence, the front office somehow feels justified in serving us a heaping helping of suck going forward.

While Amaro probably is still calling Miami everyday about Stanton, Trumbo is exactly the kind of guy I see Amaro making a huge run at this offseason too.

Just a question of whether he will get permission to trade a guy like Biddle and 1-2 pretty highly-rated prospect to get him.

Still want to see if Amaro pays complete lip service to OF defense this offseason. It was something he mentioned several times in Sept and a key criticism on Ruf.

Agreed with Amaro on both accounts. OF defense was an issue when Revere was healthy and after he got hurt it was a mess the rest of the year. Maybe the worst I have seen the Phils play in the OF when they would start Mayberry in CF and Ruf in RF. Brown still stinks too. Just isn't quite as horrendous.

MG, I like your role for Ruf in that scenario, and even as a starter at 1B in interleague games (or God forbid the NL adopt the DH), with Howard as the hitter.

We've been so accustomed by the Phillies divvying every player into one of three categories:
- infallible starter
- bench guy
- "platoon" (used loosely) player
And there's been such a chasm of offensive talent between the starters and bench. I'd like to see Ruf in a bit of a "hybrid" role if they can think outside the box enough. Hell, Franco, too, if they're really creative (they're not).

Playing guys out of position is not a way to improve this team overall, so might as well get the best players into the positions that they add the most value. Barring a trade, Howard is best served in a glorified DH/platoon role, if the FO can stomach it. If he gets hot and shows shades of his former self, let the manager play the hot hand. Pretty simple, actually.

It's easier to say than to do, but this postseason has given me a new appreciation for the concept that your bench players don't all have to be AAAA caliber.

So I did what all y'all did with Hamm's post and looked up myself. My first post:


clout, I love you.

Posted by: phlipper

phlipper - it's time to have the designated driver take you home.
Posted by: Andy | Wednesday, October 29, 2008 at 10:32 PM

I just read through the Dierkes chat over at MLBTR.

Seems like there may be a lot of interest in Chooch this offseason - more than some people here think.

just announced - Ben Revere qualifies as a super 2

Franco off to a tremendous start. Castro and Cesar doing what they do. Local kid Joey wendle starting to turn page in Arizona. And just think Shane V gonna get another ring to go with his gold glove. If only he hit RH all the time........

Lots of stuff happening Fall '08

Phillies WS
Presidential Campaigns
Economy tanking

what were ticket prices like for the series, anyone remember what stubhub was quoting?

I bought an SRO ticket for $540.

I saw GTown say he was there, too. I stood in CF also. We probably hugged. Funny stuff.

Aside from a few 'Free Ticket' $1 scratch offs, the only lottery I've ever won was the one to have the "chance" to buy a G5 ticket for $175 a pop.

Well worth it.

Revere was basically a lock to be arb eligible next year, no surprise, and no harm since he's still under control through 2017.

Health allowing, Revere should be guaranteed a full season. Sure a couple days of rest if needed, but Sandberg better be under strict direction to not bench him if he's struggling.

I can't wait until Mayberry is nontendered and he can only get mlb minimum/milb offers.

The Golson/Mayberry trade is actually a loss for Amaro. Golson sucked and was easily let go, creating opportunity for improvement. Mayberry had a short outburst and fooled idiot Amaro into keeping him around, thus destroying multiple opportunities for the last 2 seasons while he sucked.

How can you forget i was on the WFC team. I posted as such a few threads ago. Also had some key hits. My glove is just as good as Polanco by the way. Im the forgotten man.

Sincerely

Pedro WFC Feliz

Matter of fact a Thread should be posted on my contributions.

lore - I'm not Mayberry fan, but that's a horrible way to look at that trade. It was a clear win and to say different is really quite strange.

Redburb: Agreed. Especially considering: if not Mayberry, then who would have been our 4th OF? Ben Francisco? Random 4th OF #73 who probably didn't produce to the same level as Mayberry?

He deserved a shot to be the everyday guy in 2012 after the numbers he'd put up the year before, and he flopped on it. That happens all the time on a number of teams. It sucks, but these things happen.

That they coincided with an outfield drain in particular was unfortunate - and trading Pence and Victorino away for salary relief (although at the time the value of the guys we got back wasn't that low) during that timeframe was bad - but that probably would have happened whether we'd had Mayberry or Martinez as our 4th OF.

Revere hitting Super 2 status hurts a little bit but he's not a huge payroll guy either way so its really a non-issue.

If Rube cares about OF defense, trading for Mark Trumbo would be a funny move.

I completely disagree on Mayberry. Even this year, he was a decent bench player who simply got exposed with regular playing time. If he were simply getting 200 PA a year while spot starting at the corners against LHP and giving Revere the occasional day off in CF, he still has value and it was a great trade by Rube.

buster: "Mayberry deserved a shot to be the everyday guy in 2012"

Why, because he performed way over his head in the 2nd half of 2011, and you ignore his entire first half of the year and entire professional career before the age of 27?

You and Amaro would make good buds.

The core of the problem is Amaro and the Phillies in general, but they are to blame for many many many other things, so I'm going to stick this one on RFD.

He's the kind of guy who will make you draft 11th. He'll never let you win, but he'll always show enough to keep you from getting a protected pick. Its the worst kind of suck, because at least an all out suck still has some benefits.

Lore: Considering we had no other internal options (Brown was both bad and injured), a dearth of financial wherewithal, and the names of the 2012 FA class outfielders?

Also, Mayebrry posted a season OPS of .854, not just the second half. He had an awesome April, a poor May, and then a great July-September. Yes, he was playing over his head, but he did everything right to earn more playing time (kind of like Werth), then couldn't back it up in full-time play. That happens to teams all over baseball, especially with younger players.

Incidentally, 2012 OF FAs according to MLBTR were (a number of them were dual-listed at other positions):
Cuddyer (probably the only one I'd consider)
Luke Scott
Conor Jackson
Kotsay
Nady
Gload
Hawpe
Juan Rivera
Bill Hall
Willie Harris
Bloomquist
Jake Fox
Reed Johnson
Jason Michaels
Mike Cameron
Fukudome

Remember that we already had Pence and Victorino, so that was 2/3 of an above-average OF going into the season. Mayberry was slotted at LF, with a lineup that was not-so-lefty-heavy thanks (in large part) to the other two guys in the outfield.

Complaining that one player is "just good enough to stop you from getting a protected pick" is beyond dumb. If he's good enough to make you win more games than his would-be replacements, even if it's only because the team doesn't have any good replacements, then he's the better choice to be there. You're essentially saying "he doesn't suck enough," which is... Well, yes, dumb.

buster: without researching further, i know your list is wrong because I know Josh Willingham signed that year.

I'm simply going by the list on MLBTR's 2012 FA post.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012-mlb-free-agents

Ah, that's where the discrepancy was. Lotta DH/LF combos. Yes, there were more names then.

Including our good friend Laynce Nix.

Mayberry is a good last resort. You should constantly be trying to upgrade from him. The fact that the Phillies settled for Mayberry going into 2012 was the beginning of the end.

"He's the kind of guy who will make you draft 11th. He'll never let you win, but he'll always show enough to keep you from getting a protected pick."

Unless we're talking about oldish prospects, I usually agree with lorecore. But I'm confused by this metaphor, considering we did end up with a protected pick.

Burrell
Gibbons
Gomes
Kearns
Fred Lewis
Pie
Pierre (signed by Phillies)
Matt Young
DeRosa
McLouth
Rowand
Ankiel
Cespedes (sort of)
DeJesus
Hairston
Patterson
Ross
Milton Bradley
Damon
Ibanez
Willy Mo Pena
Willingham
Travis Buck
Cust
Andruw Jones
Ludwick
Nix (signed by Phillies)
Paul
Spilborghs
Kubel
Beltran
Drew
Hermida
Swisher

Ah yes, Laynce Nix - he further proves my point how much Mayberry has killed this team. Without Mayberry, they never have the idea to go get a lhp LF to pair with Mayberry.

Add Nix to Mayberry's fault. Then add the Schierholtz debacle. He's just a never ending F up.

Nix actually was quite fine in 2012 - until he got injured, anyway. Then we used Juan Pierre quite a lot, which was also quite fine, given what he gave us.

I loathe Mayberry and don't know how anyone can continue defending his presence on the roster. Even I can't go down the bizarre road lorecore is going down with this argument.

Amaro traded a lesser player for a more useful player. It's a win. How he was used by the organization is a different thing entirely.

Also, if you legitimately think that Nix was brought in as left-handed platoon partner for Mayberry, then you're claiming that they legitimately considered a long-term platoon as an option.

Given this team's history with platoons, I don't see how you could actually think that.

Think of the Butterfly Effect, only with Mayberry.

Go back in time and stop the Golson/Mayberry swap, then warp back to present day and you're sitting at CBP watching another parade.

And we all have gills.

So you're saying we're watching it from the Schuykill? Because I think we'd have more to worry about than how well the Phillies play if that's the case.

"Given this team's history with platoons, I don't see how you could actually think that."


'xactly!

Lore, you're being brilliantly st00pid on this issue.

Never before have I seen or heard a someone argue that a swap of two bench players being the difference in winning a WS.

I'm not going to waste any more time debating it with you, but keep it up and you'll assure yourself membership in the Moronocracy.

Some of these posts feel like they're coming from a fake lorecore.


Say what?

awh: i'm joking about the WS thing, and overall I know that its silly to say Golson > Mayberry - but i really do believe that the way the Phillies have operated in the OF after Mayberry's 2011 season has been a nightmare.

The real problem is Amaro, but thats such an obvious redundant answer, I'm tired of it. I blame Mayberry instead.

Just like that last post was a fake BAP.

5 years ago between the 8th and 9th innings I went to the basement beer fridge and pulled out the a bottle of champagne that my Wife and I received as a a wedding gift 4 years earlier. Three outs later I pop the cork and taste bubbly-sweet victory.

Lore, I blame Giles and Montgomery for hiring Amaro instead of Arbuckle.

OK, the problem with the Phillies' For will remain. From the milb.com article linked above, this is Joe Jordan, Phillies' director of Player Development:


"The kid is a good offensive prospect and he's a run producer. He's one of those guys that has the skill to knock in runs."


Yes, Virginia, the old school Phillies Fo still think that knocking in runs is a "skill".


I am, more and more, starting to believe that 2007-11 was an aberration, and that this organization will only take us on a sideways path from here on out.

awh: Do you expect him to go into the nuances of a prospect's swing in a feel-good press release? I don't know how they evaluate behind closed doors, but I wouldn't judge that in this sort of release.

It's also tough in interview pieces like this one, because the quotes - while not taken out of context - only include the bits the reporter wants to include. That's a nice, succinct sound bite, and sports reporting isn't exactly the grand prix of the media world.

'buster, so you doubt that THAT is the mentality of some (if not most) of the scouts/player development people in the Phillies' org?

Seriously? After r00b's quote that he only cared about "production"?

You don't detect a pattern? Seriously?

Oops, I forgot to do it this way:

Production™

awh: Like I said. I don't know how they evaluate it.

However, I wouldn't base my assumptions about it one way or the other on an article that includes part of an interview about a power-hitting player who just received an award for going from not-top-100 to probably-top-50 in a single season.

Especially one written for the lowest-common denominator (read: official MiLB releases).

Yeah, I think you're reading a bit too much into that comment, awh. The skill to knock in runs is the skill to get extra base hits -- and a guy who hit 31 homeruns & had 70 extra base last year DOES possess that skill.

If Jordan had said, "He hits especially well with runners on base," or "We like the fact that he goes up there swinging at the first pitch," your criticism would be on considerably more solid ground.

One thing I will say. That OBP is mildly concerning, considering his BA. He doesn't have a ridiculous number of Ks, which helps his case, but when you can only walk 30 times despite being one of the top 4 batters in all the minor leagues, it seems like he may be a bit swing-happy.

... Although his BABIP is curiously sustainable, all things considered (.318 across both levels).

I doubt the organization "only goes sideways" from this point forward. I mean, at some point Amaro will be gone, right?

The walk rate is a big red flag...it should be interesting to see how he does in AAA next year.

Chris - Won't matter. Montgomery will still be at the helm. Pretending it's 2009. Or something like that.

I doubt the organization "only goes sideways" from this point forward. I mean, at some point Amaro will be gone, right?

Posted by: Chris in VT | Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 12:46 PM

I imagine he'll be gone the moment they feel his assistant Ed Wade is ready to step in and take over. Wade has learned a lot under Amaro's tutelage so it should be a fairly smooth transition.

OK, Here's Ashley Marshall, the article's author, with a blog post to follow-up:


"I couldn’t fit all of their great quotes [about Franco] into the original story, so I decided to clear out my notebook and share their thoughts and observations here."


http://milbprospective.mlblogs.com/


OK, a lot of us have complained about site management before here, so I won't do it again. But I will say this:


This Franco article/award is EXACTLY the kind of thing JW would have beat us to and posted a thread almost every single time.

Franco doesn't walk a ton, but his K:BB ratio seems pretty manageable, which makes me think he's an aggressive swinger but doesn't chase everything...looks for his pitches inside the zone and goes after them.

I haven't seen much of him live, though, so I have very little real evidence. Anybody watch him play at Reading (MG)?

chris: agreed. His K% is so low compared to all the other slugger prospects that it definitely lets me give him a pass for his low BB%. He's just hitting everything.

I imagine he'll be gone the moment they feel his assistant Ed Wade is ready to step in and take over. Wade has learned a lot under Amaro's tutelage so it should be a fairly smooth transition.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, October 30, 2013 at 12:50 PM

That would be really funny if it weren't a shockingly realistic scenario.

From that article, there were 4 players in the minors for to 30HR/100RBI Here are their K%:

Javier Baez: 25.5%
Miguel Sano: 27.4%
George Springer: 27.3%
Maikel Franco: 12.0%

The one downside of him having an average BABIP but also not striking out a ton is that he likely pops up and GiDPs (19 in 2013, 24 in 2012) a lot.

I wonder if he'll get the full "J-Pop" treatment if he posts a great OPS, doesn't strike out much, has an OPS over .850, but also pops out around once every other game.

... Yes, he posts a great OPS and an .850. That first one stands for Online Posting Synchronicity.

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