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Wednesday, October 09, 2013

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Not having to see D. Young anymore is the highlight of the Postseason.

Jordan, you missed Brandon Moss.

Jason Grilli?

WP, Grilli never threw a pitch for the big club.

Given the current state of the Phillies' bullpen, you can call that one a "colossal blunder" of r00b's talent evaluation.

Don't Forget Freddy Garcia!

Given the current state of the Phillies you could argue there is no "big club".

GTown, LOL!

Looking over Moss's postseason line, do you think Darin Ruf -- if put into the same situation -- would have struck out more or less often? I'd probably take the latter, simply because a 55% K-rate is just about as bad as you can do unless you're actively trying to strike out. It has to be fueled to some degree by bad strikeout luck. (To the extent that such a thing exists.) It just has to.

Though it occurs to me that Jordan probably meant 2-12 with 3 BB, for 15 PA instead of 18. That certainly makes more sense, as I don't recall any double-digit score-a-thons. Which is even grimmer for Moss, as he'd be boasting a 66% K-rate at that point. I wonder what the record is in that department, with a minimum of 10 or 15 PA for a LDS?

inb4scammies

More interesting would be a run down of all the players we gave up since the world series.

So I figured out that the Beerleaguer obscenity filter now includes the word sc*mmies. If you post it (as I tried to do two times in a row), your post won't show up.

I wonder the filter also includes the word mafia. Let's test it.

Not keeping Vogelsong a couple years ago was a major miss re: the organization's ability to evaluate, grade, value, and retain talent in my opinion.

Speaking of the post-season...

"The brightest, most forward-thinking organizations in the game today–I’m thinking the Boston Red Sox, Tampa Bay Rays, Pittsburgh Pirates and Oakland A’s–don’t just employ an analytics specialist. They have an analytics department."

http://www.phillymag.com/news/2013/10/02/phillies-getting-religion-stats/

"Amaro promised that any changes in the team’s player development approach will be “pretty minor..."

The perfect "pretty minor" hire as Amoron's solo stathead-in-chief: Cholly...

Forget Oakland & Tampa & Pittsburgh. I want to know what St. Louis does.

I give the Phillies a complete pass on Vogelsong because there was absolutely nothing about either his history, or his 2010 performance at LV, which should have clued them in that he was going to turn into a good pitcher in 2011. Besides, even if they had kept him, it's not like they had anywhere to put him on the 2011 rotation.

Grilli & Moss are the ones which I find vexing. Both killed it at AAA in their last year with the Phillies & neither was given any kind of a chance -- unless you count the 6 PAs they gave to Moss in September.

Also, "Amoron" is inspired. I might have to steal that one now & again.

This is all you need to know about that piece on the Phils and analytics:

"Montgomery added, however, that “character” plays a major role in the team’s personnel decisions."

I am sure that this is something you want to evaluate but this comes off almost as foolish as Hawk Harrelson's idiotic comment that the most important criteria when evaluating a player is his 'will to win.'

It is important to assess qualities/personality traits that aren't easily quantifiable because they are difficult to assess or measure but this is just face palm-inducing comment from the Phils' FO.

BAP:
I can almost understand letting Moss walk due to his numbers, as MiLB stats are always open to interpretation: As Tyler Cloyd taught us in 2012, sometimes AAAA players can post impressive MiLB numbers simply because they have the right tools to thrive against the particular variety of guys in AAA. If they believed that Moss profiled as a guy who'd just had a flukey good year in 2011 or that his success wasn't likely to translate to MLB, it's entirely justifiable to have let him walk.

What makes it baffling was that the Phils knew they'd need a mashing LHB first baseman for at least half of 2012 when it came time to decide what to do with Moss. That they chose to go with running Wigginton and Mayberry out there instead of just paying Brandon Moss something close to the league minimum, I think, is the great sin here: In the vacuum, one can debate whether a .582 SLG for a non-PCL team should warrant retention. In the Phils' actual circumstances, it was incredibly daft not retain Moss in some capacity.

The problem with the team has been and will be Montgomery. Best chance the Phils have of becoming a perennially well-run organization is going to be a wholesale change which I don't see happening until Monty and co. sell.

While Moss did hit 23 HRs at Lehigh Valley in 2011 he made the mistake of dissing r00b by putting up a way too high walk rate of 12.25%...

Juums: I'm not so willing to let the Phillies slide on Moss.

Yes, Moss was an older prospect by 2011 & minor league numbers can be misleading for older prospects. But, as Jack often points out, the Phillies pride themselves on a scouting-oriented approach &, if the scouts told them to let Moss go, they were woefully wrong.

It should also be recalled that the guy who was blocking Moss in 2011 was Ross Gload, who played the entire 2011 season with an injury that left him barely able to move & absolutely pathetic at the plate. Given the situation, there was no reason at all to keep Gload and deny Moss a chance. And that is really my gripe with the Phillies when it comes to old-ish prospects. The entire point of signing an oldish prospect like Kratz or Moss or Grilli or Josh Fields, is to see if maybe you'll find a late bloomer. But how can you ever know if you refuse to give the guy a chance? That's why the Tyler Cloyd analogy fails for me. They DID give Cloyd a fairly extended chance and deservedly so. When they released him, they had a lot more information than they had when they released Brandon Moss or Jason Grilli.

Didn't Moss put up some pretty unimpressive numbers in the Bigs in '09? And didn't do terribly great in AAA in '10?

I can kind of understand why they may have figured his 2011 MiLB numbers would never end up translating super well in the majors.

3 things could have changed the phillies trajectory, in the sense of possibly another ring from 08-11

1)Moving Polanco to 3rd instead of trading him the first time and giving him an extension to play in his prime through most of the playoff window

2) Opening up the checkbook and never trading lee, still accquiring Halladay and Oswalt.


3) Locking up Werth to a longer deal in 08' before he hit free agency, possibly getting him for 15 a year or so.

Outside of that i can't fault this ownership too much for what they did during the run. Ruben is just the wrong GM for a team in "transition" like this one is.

MG: Character is important, which is why the Phillies signed guys like D. Young, & Papelbon.

(Although in fairness to Papelbon I'm never quite certain whether it's character he lacks, or brains. Perhaps a bit of both.)

The problem with the team has been and will be Montgomery. Best chance the Phils have of becoming a perennially well-run organization is going to be a wholesale change which I don't see happening until Monty and co. sell.

Or at the very least choosing someone not of the ownership group to be President of the ball club. Monty's too sentimental. Opening up the budget to the luxury tax limit is a waste when you've hired idiot(s) -- esp. idiot(s) of whom you're personally fond -- to do the spending.

> I can kind of understand why they may have figured his 2011 MiLB numbers
> would never end up translating super well in the majors.
> Posted by: Phillibuster

They could have at least given him a chance in Sept 2011, but Rube decided to give that chance to John Friggin' Bowker instead.

Why do I feel like Rube's comments on Ruf are setting the stage for "Moss 2.0?"

That's not to say that he's a starting RF - he's absolutely not. However, for whatever reason, it seems that Ruf has failed to curry RAJ's favor during the time he's recently seen. I wonder if RAJ has the cajones to trade him, though, if he really thinks that Ruf can't add any value to this team.

Ruf needs to get those Tijuana pictures of RAJ from Mini-Mart so he can nail down the RF job.

Amoron is hilarious if you've got an IQ around 80. The rest of us have made it through grade school.

Moss in the minors in 2010 and 2011: 22 HRs and 23 HRs.

Amoron's response in Sept. 2011:

John Bowker's 7 Ks in 13 ABs, marking the end of his MLB career. But r00b can't be faulted since Bowker did have 10 dingers for the Giants in 2008...

Amoron is hilarious if you've got an IQ around 80. The rest of us have made it through grade school.

Posted by: Iceman | Wednesday, October 09, 2013 at 07:23 PM

Says the guy who only posts to take shots at gtown, who has questionable views but is at least mature enough to not respond. There's good information and humor on this site but sweet dancing jesus the infighting gets old. No one reads beerleaguer for that crap.

/screed

Funny, MMart (?), when I read your post about Bowker I first thought you said Bowker did have 10 "dinners" with the Giants in 2008, which actually sounds more like his typical tenure with teams.

Go Bucs. As an early riser I don't like these late games, but this one may be worth the lack of sleep...

Time to see if the Pirates can continue the fairy tale. Excited to see how Garrett Cole does tonight - he was so good last time! But Wainwright in St. Louis makes me think the Cardinals come out victorious.

Yeah, GBF, I'm afraid that Wainwright plus the home field will mean that again the Cards move on. But baseball is a game of hope, so I'm staying optimistic.

"I can kind of understand why they may have figured his 2011 MiLB numbers would never end up translating super well in the majors."

That's why you put it to the test by calling the guy up. It's not like Ross Gload was contributing anything to the team in 2011.

Moss did stink it up in the majors in 2009, but guys can improve. Lo and behold, that's exactly what happened.

Dammit.

That Kozma catch encapsulates why the Cardinals are so, so easy to detest.

The Kozma throw, too, for that matter. Remember those heady days when when the Cards were supposed to be looking for an SS in the trade market due to Furcal's need for Tommy John surgery? Due to a lack of faith in Pete Kozma, presumably.

Giving Wainwright a 2-0 lead is like giving Cliff Lee a 2-0 lead. Cole is doing a good job, but the Pirates' offense cant muster anything.

Good effort by Cole, but I think we know how this is going to end. I'll be surprised (and pleased) if the Pirates pull off a rally. Assuming they do not, I'm definitely rooting for the AL team in the WS, whichever team it be.

Kozma freaking blows, thats why the Cards were shopping for a SS.

Wouldn't the out at 2B have been a sure thing? Not that I'm complaining.

bap is dead on about the Vogelsong/Moss/Grilli convo. They should get no fault for Vogelsong, he showed them nothing and had 0 shot making the 2011 rotation.

Moss and Grilli both showed the Phillies a lot in the minors all awhile being the exact player the team needed. I'm not exaggerating. The EXACT player they needed. The team in 2011 was desperate for power off the bench and a late inning power arm, and the 2012 team was desperate for a 1B along with any living body who could pitch in relief.

Go ahead and look at the names that played over Moss and Grilli in those years. Its sickening.

GBrettfan: imagine what Cliff Lee could do with a 4-0 lead

"Outside of that i can't fault this ownership too much"

um, Ryan Howard?

He fits well with the Moss conversation. If Howard left during free agency, they could have kept Brandon Moss.

Since Howard's contract kicked in:

Moss: 51 HR, .269/.345/.550 in 801 PA
Howard: 25 HR, .224/.307/.445 in 609 PA

No, you can't predict Moss would be better than Howard, but you can predict that the odds of finding a much cheaper 1B to be a plus offensive player wouldn't be hard.

matt adams reminds me of the guys in the softball HR derby.

Steve, I knew someone would refer to that very disappointing postseason Lee start. Unfortunately for Pirates' fans, Wainwright isn't faltering.

Some good posts tonight about Moss, Grilli et al.

And the irony in Montgomery's statement that they'll always rely on scouting - when it was that very "scouting" (or lack thereof... actually a lack of GOOD scouting) is what has failed them so much in the last 2 - 3 seasons.

Lore's point that their scouting prowess and player personnel decisions failed them in 2011 as well is dead on the money.

That Phillymag article depressed me a little, and here's why:

The world of MLB is changing - changing all around the Phillies - and they're ossified in their ways - and I fear that as more teams embrace advanced analytics and marry it with their traditional scouting the Phillies will be left further behind and become less competitive.

Business schools are full of case studies, of these kinds of examples. Some organizations simply won't embrace change. There are many reasons for it - certain members of the org protecting their own interests and power bases within, institutionalized arrogance, fear, reluctance to embrace things they don't or won't understand. The list is longer but you get the idea.

That article just reinforces what I've posted here earlier today.

The Phillies aren't going to change because they don't believe that they need to. It will take the rest of baseball passing them by and leaving them on the scrap heap and by then it may be too late, because the other teams will have moved even further ahead embracing and utilizing even newer innovations like the biomechanics the Mets are starting to use.

Juums posted this a couple of threads ago in case you missed it:

http://metsblog.com/metsblog/mets-working-with-motion-capture-bio-mechanics-company/

If you think organizations like the Phillies are unique, even within MLB, you would be wrong. The Twinkies - once a competitive team almost every season - have fallen on hard times. Read this article and tell me whether you think it sounds familiar:

http://www.1500espn.com/sportswire/Mackey_Once_a_model_team_Twins_now_lack_innovation_outside_ideas093013

Fellow fans, we may be in for another long stretch of ugly baseball, until this group either changes its' ways or gets lucky again.

"Montgomery added, however, that “character” plays a major role in the team’s personnel decisions."

So that's how we ended up with Delmon Young.

>>> So that's how we ended up with Delmon Young.

Cannot WAIT for the Braun trade!

Unikruk, a Braun trade and a K'ORod signing!

Bye bye, Bucs. I wanted you in the WS, but now we'll have to wait until next year.

Congrats on your season and bringing good baseball back to Pittsburgh.

when giles put together a group to buy the phillies from the carpenters he pitched that his buddy montgomery would act as the owners' mouthpiece. that was his role. he would permit the owners to remain in the background. but that's not the job description of president. htf did that happen? that's the story i want to know.

I'll second that congratulations, awh.

i'll third it. i have always rooted for the buckos, as the other pa team. starting in the clemente era.

Pat Gallen: Adam Wainwright: "It starts at the top ... With the front office."

So that's why the Phillies aren't a winning team anymore ...

Dam Cardinals

If the Axis countries had managed to win World War II, many historians assume that Japan & Germany would eventually have turned on each other to see which of the two expansionist regimes could ultimately gain control of the entire world. I bring this up because, if it had come to such a situation, deciding which country to root for would have been very similar to deciding between the Dodgers and Cardinals in the NLCS.

Rape of Nanking ... Michael Wacha mows down the Pirates.

Zyklon B ... Yasiel Puig eliminates the Braves, douses Craig Sager.

Of course! Why didn't we see it before?!

Just when I thought there couldn't be a series with a worse no-win outcome than Dodgers-Braves...

I usually don't root for the AL, but this year I may have to. It'll be cool for Shane to get another WS if the Saux make it.

@Sil, a Red Sox vs Dodgers or Cardinals would be awful.

In a way, even though I kind of like them and have a good friend who is a Tigers fan, I hope they lose and then want to do something like unload some top prospects for Cliff Lee.

i don't give a darn about any of the remaining teams. but i think i will follow matt adams post season. b-ref says he's 230 but he looks bigger. certainly more than 10 lbs. bigger than ruf.

he was born in philipsburg, pa. near state college and went to slippery rock, where he set the career batting average record at .473. drafted in the 23rd round. you can read more at wiki.

he reminds me of ruf. starting late. he's getting the kind of chance i wish ruf would get. and he seems like a BL kind of guy.

So it appears the spamming issue was resolved (temporarily at least)

Good to see Shane rocking it in Boston...he was a great match for that fanbase and I'm happy to cheer him in Boston unlike in LA where I just cant get over my utter hatred for the Dodgers.

Go BoSox! The only team left standing that I kinda like.

I suppose I have to have some affection for the Sox, since my better half's family is from/in Boston...

But if she doesn't like the Sox (and does like the Phillies), does that change the rules a bit?

NEPP: I'm with you in rooting for Boston.

I wonder also- if the Pirates will be the Nationals next year.

Also, thank you mods for doing your best here. Hopefully it continues to work out

I like most of the Cards' players but still have residual distaste of LaRussa that still has me rooting against them. When I think of the indivuals, Molina is like a super-Chooch; Adams, Freeze, Craig and Jay are all guys who blossomed late and are guys easy to root for; Beltran's an all-around, cusp-of-HOF, likeable guy. Wainwright and Carpenter are master pitchers and joys to watch and the team seems to find relievers like Atlanta does.

Honestly, I find it it very easy to root against Molina simply by virtue of the ridiculous media attention he gets.

If you listen to ESPN or any other baseball broadcast, they basically slurp Molina's @*#%$ all game during every single game...They managed to do it during a couple of the Rays/Red Sox games despite him not even playing on either team...they said, "And there's Jose Molina...man, his brother is so amazing, slurp, slurp, slurp" for the next 2 hours.

We get it, you think he's great but he's reached Brett Favre levels of saturation by ESPN at this point.

THe fact that another team gets to have RH Vic without enduring LH Vic pisses me off more than it makes me happy that he's doing well.

LorecoreE - Wow. So true.

I wonder how well Vic "holds up" next season. If he prospers again next year, it's simply another gaffe by the Phillies "talent squad".

Can't bring myself to root for any of the remaining teams. I suppose the A's are the least annoying but they'll probably lose to Verlander tonight, again. Choosing between the Dodgers and Cardinals is akin to the Kobayashi Maru test.

"Also, "Amoron" is inspired."

Actually, I prefer the author, "R. A. Marrow, Jr.".

And his tales of Drizzt DoUnderperformance?

Philli, NEPP -- Re: Molina. I get your point but I almost never watch ESPN other than specific sporting events, so I haven't been over-Molina'd yet.

I reached that point with Jeter long, long ago. What put me over the top was the slurping on the Giambi play -- it was terrific but being in a backup position is something that should be done. If you are out of a play, go to a place where you can possibly help with backup. Heck, my intramural team at work does that all time.

Edmundo: It's not just ESPN, sadly. Heck, even TMac spent the requisite "Yadiawwwwwwwyeah" time when the Phillies played the Cards.

That said, Kruk fawns over him incessantly. I'd be interested to see what would happen if Daulton walked in during one of those sessions.

FU Cards. Man I can't remember an NLCS where I was actively rooting against both teams so strongly. Maybe have to go back to the '99 NLCS with the Mets vs Braves.

I have to call my father back to let him spout happiness about the Cardinals. Unfortunately.

I am happy enough to have an AL team win this year. The A's have that pitcher from a local (South Jersey) high school, the one my son goes to. I like Jim Leyland. And I retain a great deal of affection for Shane Victorino, making it easiest of all to root for the Red Sox. Especially since I like Ellsbury and Pedroia and Big Papi, too.

I'm actually quite happy w/ the Postseason thus far. The Rays & Pirates have been eliminated, we will have had a couple of Game 5s ... I can dig it.

The only Cardinals player I truly can't stand is Molina, & I loathe Brian Wilson at least as much. The StL/L.A. series would be a push for me, save for the "fan" element. That, & my late uncle went to Slippery Rock, so I'm partial to the kid what hit the HR last night. StL it is.

Fingers crossed that Detroit can knock off Oakland tonight. I've been for the Tigers from the outset, & Detroit vs. Boston is an intriguing match-up.

Eh. I'd be most fine with Oakland winning. Yes, it'll make lots of casual fans stupidly SABR-happy because of Moneyball, and they'll quote stats they don't even understand, but it'll be nice to not have one of the perennial powerhouses winning.

Tigers wouldn't have counted as one of those 3 years ago, but they do now.

I usually try to root for the NL in the Series, because of my affection for the League.

This year, I'll be rooting for whoever wins the AL, hopefully the A's, Red Sox or Tigers, in that order.

Why? I can't stand the Dodgers or Cardinals, and just won't be able to muster any enthusiasm for them whatsoever.

Oakland is the only team left for whom I can generate even the slightest bit of rooting interest but I feel like it's a foregone conclusion that they'll lose tonight.

I suppose I'll pull for St. Louis in the NL, only because I consider the Cardinals way of building a juggernaut to be far more honorable than the Dodgers way of building a juggernaut.

bap, good point about the Cards way of building. I still can't figure out whether to root for the Cards or Dodgers. I do like Don Mattingly and think Kershaw deserves a WS shot. But I like the Cards' way of handling the team, as you say, and also their loyal fan base is commendable. It's just that the Cards have done more damage to the Phillies directly in the last few years, and those memories don't fade easily.

Yep...time to turn the allegiance to the AL for the next few weeks.

But frankly, as long as it's baseball it is good. It is such a long and dreary winter starting in November.

Many rect-l prolapses can only be treated by surgery.

While there are medications that go along with that rect-l prolapse surgery, they only perform as a support mechanism and cannot replace the need for a surgical procedure. These medications tend to be stool softeners or fibrous bulk agents and they serve to reduce the amount of straining necessary to defecate, which hopefully gives the rect-l canal some much needed rest.

Rectum? Damn near killed 'em!

Choosing between the Dodgers and Cardinals is akin to the Kobayashi Maru test.

Watching it, I'm sure we'll all feel like trying Spock's solution as in the end of ST:II.

There was only 1 ST II and it was Wrath of Khan...that the current abomination that calls itself ST.

I know you were referring to the original there but I just wanted to throw that out there...the new one is just brutal.

God this thread has jumped the cling on.

It's a little Tribbling, isn't it?

Choosing between the Dodgers and Cardinals is akin to having to chose being stabbed in the eye or having your eye plucked out.

Out, vile jelly! Where is thy lustre now?

Only one of those two options blinds me though definitely....

I wonder whether other teams (paging Mr. Cashman?), and in particular the Phillies will learn from St. Louis' example, and understand that, just as "the graveyard is filled with indispensable people", there are no indispensable players (Ryan Howard), and no player for whom a team should really overpay?

Since Pujols turned down their offer (and the did offer him over 10/$200 MM), ehi sis what's happened:

Allen Craig in 2013/13:

253 G, 1077 PA, .311/.364/.488, 35 HR, 189 RBI, 103 XBH


Albert Pujols in 2012/13:

253 G, 1113 PA, .275/.338/.485, 47 HR, 169 RBI, 116 XBH

Ouch, should say... "this is what's happened:"

Dugan stays on the bench for the 3rd straight game.

I'm gonna go ahead and pull a BAP-esque heel turn and pull for the team I'm closest in proximity to (and thereby have the most familiarity with). Not a big fan of the Puig mania, and I suspect he'll ultimately not live up to expectations, but much like Harper, you might not like the flamboyant nuances, but he does play the game hard, which I respect. I don't see how anyone couldn't respect the hell out of Kershaw.

On the fan base perspective, Dodgers fans are extremely fair weather like most everything around here, but "Baseball Heaven" seems to have created a fan base that is so pompous, condescending and holier than thou that I just can't get on board.

As much as I'm not a huge fan of the Dodgers (Yankees?) means of building a contender, sadly it's the model that will benefit the Phillies much more immediately than the "build from within" model that STL has exemplified over the years. Ideally, something along the lines of what BOS did last season.

Hate the Cards much, much more than I hate the Dodgers.

Would love to see a White Elephants WS victory.

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