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Thursday, September 19, 2013

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Chooooooooooooooooch

If a 1yr $7.5M deal is what the market suggest for Ruiz, then they should be trying to re-sign him right now at a number around that. Pretty harmless deal.

Rotoworld link on the right...

Corey Hart told reporters Thursday that he would accept a team-friendly contract from the Brewers.
Hart, an impending free agent, is still in recovery mode from double knee surgery and will not appear in a game this season. "I’ve told them I would be very generous to stay here," Hart said. "I wouldn’t sit there and ask for anything that is outlandish. I would take a discount to stay here because I think I owe it to them to stay here and be a cheaper player, because — nobody wants to play for free — but I’ve basically sat there and watched all season." Sep 19 - 1:49 PM

If Hart does indeed sign a team friendly contract with the Brewers, I'm sure someone on here will post in the middle of the season next season how if they were GM they would of signed Hart to play RF, cause look how cheap he was. I'm predicting this to occur as more likely than the Phillies making the postseason.

Wonder why Chooch's comments indicate that it has to be after the season to have the discussion. His preference? Sounds like he at least wants to test FA to see what kind of value he has (particularly in years), but if I'm RAJ and think Chooch can be had on a 1 or 2 year deal, I'm acting now, before someone else gets desperate.

I'm not a big fan of a Pierzynski contingency plan.

One year sounds about perfect for Chooch. And if he can get more years elsewhere, so be it.

When Pierzynski was with the Giants, legend has it that he once got hit in the groin with a line drive &, when the trainer came out & asked how he felt, he proceeded to kick the trainer in the same spot and say, "Like that." Needless to say, he didn't last long with the Giants.

b_a_p: I can't say as I've ever heard a heartwarming Pierzynski story. Comes off as a Class A jerk.

I've always seen Pierzynski as the Matthew Barnaby of baseball - you hate the guy unless he's on your team. I guess maybe even his teammates (or at least the medical staff) don't like him either.

As for Chooch, I suspect Russell Martin's deal (2 years, $17M) is more likely the model for Chooch's next contract, whether it's with the Phils or someone else.

He'd likely have to take a one-year deal with a club or vesting option.

I'd be ok with this.

"At 34, Ruiz doesn't have a ton of leverage in contract negotiations. He'd likely have to take a one-year deal with a club or vesting option. He made $5 million this year and will probably stay in that range after a strong second half."


Given the dearth of quality catching at the MLB level, methinks it's difficult to take the position that Chooch will not have a "ton of leverage". That's pure speculation.

I have stated this before, and I still believe it: Given the MLB catching situation, Chooch will get at least a 2-year offer from some team, with a 3rd year option/vesting a possibility.

That is probably why he's waiting until the end of the season, because this is his last chance to obtain any kind of meaningful contract.

Also, if you want to know what good catching and hitting is worth at the MLB level, at least for the elite catchers, take a look at the Molina and Posey contracts.

Is Chooch on their level? Of course not, but don't undersell what he may be able to get on the open market from a team that thinks he might be a missing piece to postseason glory.

For confirmation take a look at what even teams like Cincy and LAD run out there every game. Chooch is a clear upgrade, and would be for at least 20 teams in MLB.

IMHO there will be a market for Chooch and he'll get at least 2 years.

Chooch has to be re-signed. None of the other options are a fit and there is no one remotely ready in the farm system.

Of course he will be back. Member of the 2008 team, beloved by fans and teammates, no good alternatives, and has been hitting well down the stretch (i.e. when it counts most).

"As for Chooch, I suspect Russell Martin's deal (2 years, $17M) is more likely the model for Chooch's next contract, whether it's with the Phils or someone else."


Colonel, I hadn't read your piece when I posted the above, but that look about tight to me.

He won't get Posey/Molina AAV, and because of his age and injury history I don't think he'll get more than 2 years guaranteed.

But, Posey Molina are at AAV's of $15-19 MM, and while a team would be crazy to give Chooch that much, an AAV of 8-10MM is probably what he's in line for. A little higher if can only get one year, and a little lower if he gets two years, and a little lower still if he gets a fairly easily attainable 3rd year vesting option:

1 yr, $9.5MM
2 yrs, $17MM
2 yrs, $16MM, with a 3rd year 8MM vesting option that kicks in if he plays 200 - 220 games over both years with at least 100 coming in Year 2. Or something like that...

Imagine a 2 yr/$12-$13M deal is where he is going to end up.

"... but that look about tight to me."


...should read as "...but that looks about right to me."

The Phils might have been willing to let him go if Joseph had continued to progress and Kratz continued to hit, but neither of those things happened. A 2-year deal with a vesting option sounds about right, both in terms of the market and this front office's M.O. Rupp can take over as a serviceable backup next year, and hopefully Joseph re-establishes himself as a prospect and can be eased into a big-league role by 2015.

If Ruiz would sign a 2/$12-13M deal, the Phils should get that done yesterday.

I'm fine with Chooch for two years (and I'll take the clout opinion that it's not my money, so whatever on the $'s...), but no longer. And even then, I'd expect that 2nd year to be a significant split of time with one of the younger guys getting his feet under him.

What's left of the staff loves Chooch and the other options are rather deplorable (I'm also assuming McCann is essentially off the table).

"If Ruiz would sign a 2/$12-13M deal, the Phils should get that done yesterday."


Colonel, I'll go further:

If Ruiz would sign a 2/$12-13M deal, the Phillies WOULD have done that yesterday.

Preacher: Two years is the limit of what I'd consider reasonable. The Phillies cannot avoid the future forever, no matter how much they wish to try.

he's still elite at blocking balls

Are we watching the same catcher? If you have some stats to back up that statement, I have my egg-on-my-face towel ready, but he looks bad to me in that department this year.

2/15M feels like what he'll get.

Chooch is going to get a 2nd year but for how much. Say he makes $7.5-$8M next year is he really going to match/exceed that in the 2nd year?

I doubt it. Hard to see him getting much more than 2 yr/$13M. Maybe $15M with some marginal buyout for an option (500k or 750k).

Dioner Navarro never gets mentioned among the FA catchers but he's putting up big numbers this year in a part-time role & is a good defensive catcher (although his throwing arm isn't the greatest). Plus he's young-ish as FAs go; he won't turn 30 until February.

Might be worth considering if Chooch ends up elsewhere.

Navarro is the poor man's Saltalamacchia. The problem is that he's coming off of a career year and is going to be expecting to get paid for that, which'll lead whoever ends up signing to make a massive overpayment for a guy with a career .250/.312/.370 line. What's doubly impressive about Navarro is that, for a switch-hitting catcher, he's much worse versus RHP than LHP. Consider:
Career vs. RHP (as LHB): .244/.302/.346
Career vs. LHP (as RHB): .268/.338/.438

When concocting my own preferred plan for what to do with Chooch, Navarro was the first place I looked for a backup/batterymate. I was vigorously chastened by his splits and the immense unlikelihood that this career year represents a breakout season and his new normal. Unless you're conviced he's a late-bloomer who finally put it all together, you'd likely do better with Chooch and Rupp.

Or, as BAP's statement was in the context of Chooch falling through, just Rupp.

Or, for Comedy Option #3, just suiting up Galvis and seeing if he can call a ballgame. He's already been everywhere else on the diamond, after all. And versus RHP, he'd be about as good at the plate as Navarro.

Don't forget me! I'm versatile!

Ruf has the build to be a catcher. Give him a try.

As Ruf continues to improve as he moves up the defensive spectrum, I've no doubt he'd be good for a .300/.400/.500 line the moment he put shinguards on.

Amaro has a penchant for giving two year contracts, so Ruiz will likely be back, with Kratz filling in 30-35% of the time. I expect, based upon past injuries both Ruiz and Katz will land on the disabilied list and AAA catcher will be brought up for 20-30 games. The question is what catcher? Right now Rupp has the pole position.

Revere
Utley
Chooch
Howard
Ruf
Brown
Rollins
Asche

Probably about 4.3 RPG with that lineup, methinks.

"Amaro has a penchant for giving two year contracts..."


This.


I can hear Chooch's agent right now:

"You gave a two-year deal to guys like Nix, Dobbs and Brian 'Effin' Schneider, and you're NOT going to offer MY guy two years?"

I actually agree with BAP on Navarro. If they want a cheap alternative, he's not a bad fall-back option.

They're re-signing Ruiz though. My guess is they go cheap at catcher with him (avoiding the McCann/Salty sweepstakes) and attempt to sign/trade for an OF as the 'big ticket' move of the off-season.

I take a lot of what management with a grain of salt, but Sandberg talking about moving Revere to LF raised an eyebrow. I wonder if they don't go after Ellsbury for CF and move Revere to LF.

I can't imagine the Sox letting Salty walk...

"Sandberg talking about moving Revere to LF"

Link?

Iceman:
I can't fault the logic of putting Revere and Ellsbury into the same OF, nor could I fault the Phils' motivations for going out and obtaining the best CF that money can buy. But when I look at Ellsbury, I keep coming back to the same two issues (aside from the elephant in the room related to QOs and draft pick compensation):
1) He's LHB. One of the few things that there is genuine consensus for on BL is that the team's already LHB heavy and adding another one will just make things that much worse. Ellsbury would also in all likelihood end up displacing the one source of RH power in the order, as I assume Brown would move to RF and Ruf to being the 4th OF.

2) Where does Revere end up hitting in an order that features Ellsbury? As, if Ellsbury is signed, it will be presumed he'll be the lead-off guy. If not leading off, Revere's skill-set doesn't really have a natural place in the order, unless the Phils' hit him 9th. And the consensus on that is that it is much more likely Hell will freeze over before that happens.

Again, not that Ellsbury would be a bad-up, but if we're going to go crazy this off-season and get another LHB OF, I'd rather it Choo: He'll likely require fewer years, gets on base more, can more readily be slotted in behind Revere in the two-hole, and will probably do all of that for a lower AAV than Ellsbury. But to each their own.

Er, bad pick-up. And of course, if Choo was gotten, Revere would stay in CF and Choo would go into RF.

I'm pretty sure that was when Sandberg said something about wanting more options in CF. However, I wonder if the context wasn't a bit... Lacking.

Link! http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130821&content_id=57814450&notebook_id=57818486&vkey=notebook_phi&c_id=phi

I vote no on Choo. "Chooooooo" sounds too much like "Choooooooch". Too confusing.

Dickie Thong:
On the other hand, if Choo and Ruiz were batted next to each other in the order, the advertising about getting aboard the Choo-Chooch Train practically writes tiself.

Chooch is my neighbor's favorite Phillie. Based on that alone, we should resign him.

Thanks, Ice. Oh god, we're really gonna see Revere-Hernandez-Brown, aren't we?

Cyclic - No way. Amaro won't stand for that kind of minimal PRODUCTION from 2 OF spots. This isn't the '08-'10 versions of JRoll/Utley/Howard.

I wouldn't mind the Phils moving Revere to LF. Arguably might be the best defensive LF in the game next year if they do. It would require them to sign/trade for a CF because Hernandez isn't an everyday starter out there defensively or offensively. Hopefully, he's a valuable utility player who can play 2B/CF and in a pinch a corner OF spot/3B.

Ellsbury is going to be ridiculously overpaid but Amaro has made his share of comments recently about OF defense especially when Brown and Ruf were mentioned last week.

Ellsbury in CF and Revere in LF would be tremendous defensively and they could move Brown to RF where his arm plays better.

How am I just now becoming aware that there is both a Mike Trout and a Mike Carp in MLB?

Just don't see how the Phils make a realistic run at Ellsbury given his agent (Boras), Amaro's previous behavior to sign his targeted player as early as possible in FA, and the ability of the Red Sox to pay Ellsbury a boat load if they want.

Couple of other teams too including Mariners and a few others who have come up regarding Ellsbury and his possible destinations.

He's a good player who has had 1 really great offensive season though and a guy who likely has already peaked defensively. Not a guy you necessarily want to committ $18-20M annually into over the next 5/6 years.

I hope the same people who keep talking about Brown's arm in right remember that was what they wanted when they are tempted to complain next year.

" It would require them to sign/trade for a CF because Hernandez isn't an everyday starter out there defensively or offensively."


MG, you do realize that you're statement goes against the conventional wisdom of many here, no?

TTI: Based on the Phillies current roster, where would you prefer DOM played?

Dom's never going to be a plus fielder no matter where he plays, & he'll be rightfully jeered for making bad reads & inexplicable dives in LF as well as RF. However, that should not preclude the Phillies from locating Brown in an area more suited to taking advantage of his one defensive strength.

Lorecore: Why do I have to base it on the current roster?

Dave: Forget about Mike Trout and Mike Carp, we have Mike Minnow-mart.

Because no one is saying that DOM should play RF if the team ends up with a better RF.

There is also A.J. Pollock and Anthony Bass.

Ruiz deserves a 2 year deal. With Sandberg at the helm (I hope) he will be treated right and not be played to death. He will rest him occasionally. Trade that useless strikeout king at 1st base and get a good backup for Ruiz. Hell Ruf can play first.

I never really thought Ruiz was done. Just one or two bloggers say it's so and the rest blindly follow. I say 2 years 12-13 mill. Is there a risk yes it is. Is it a slight overpay perhaps. With no one ready to take the reigns i see it as the best option at the moment.

Because no one is saying that DOM should play RF if the team ends up with a better RF.

-____________________________________________

Lying like that when the opposite is clearly visible in the comments is ridiculous.

If they don't get a clear upgrade in the OF via FA, the most logical outfield is Revere-Hernandez-Brown.

"Trade that useless strikeout king at 1st base ..."


Problems: With THAT contract? With his performance the last two years? With his health in question?


Good luck.

Rube is going to try and make a big FA signing to stimulate the fans. Not sure if it will be a OF a starting pitcher etc. Hernandez has been impressive with the bat but theres going to be some growing pains tossing him out in CF.

Ruiz will definitely get two years because some team, or even multiple teams will offer that many years - and it's his last contract. I heard on ESPN radio his agent is going to ask for three years. I don't blame him for asking, but doubt anyone will go there. Two years and a little more money than Amaro would like to spend is what it will cost. There's few options so I expect Ruiz will be back.

Show TTI an apple & he thinks it's "clearly visible" as an orange.

To the best of my recollection every comment relating to Dom moving back to RF has been made w/in the context of the Phillies' roster as it stands.

If Chooch wants to come back on a one-year deal at $7.5 we should consider it.

But there are already too many graybeards wearing red pinstripes. Bring up the youngsters to catch. It was a great blow to the organization when Tommy Joseph was concussed. Let's try Valle and Rupp and hope Joseph will be ready in 2015.

RAJ made a mistake re-upping all the old-timers, ie Utley, Rollins, and possibly Halladay. In athletics, 30 is old, 35 is ancient and 37 is way over the hill.

Get younger!

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