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Sunday, September 15, 2013

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DOM had a XBH, i'll take it. Good game.

I DVR'd it and promptly deleted it.

Buellar? Buellar? Buellar?

The Phils had 5 guys pitch who won't make the Opening Day roster and a good chance only 2 of them are with the organization next year.

In more important news, the Phils are still only just 13th worst record in MLB as hard as that is to believe.

Blue Jays are 10th though at 68-81 and only a game worse of the Phils.

What is this guys --> @MikeMiss975 problem?

This is the third Sunday on the Sugerhouse show that Missanelli has run down the starting pitchers available for purchase this winter with Larry Bowa, and Masahiro Tanaka is not there.

I have sent him numerous - likely more than a dozen - tweets about this.

Does he have a problem with Japanese people? Does he hate foreigners?

What is the issue?

Is there anyone here who listens to sports talk radio in Philly? Do they ignore the existence of Tanaka as well?

I remember well how Charlie Manuel was attacked as some kind of stupid backward hillbilly by these types of Philly media.

Charlie Manuel can talk to Masahiro Tanaka without an interpreter. That "dumb hillbilly" speaks Japanese.

It's pretty obvious who is stupid and backward.

Free AEC: Try tweeting at Charlie Manuel about the subject and let us know what he says.

One more here who watched the entire Phils game. It was just one of those games that there wasn't much to say.

I'm guessing you'd have to go back to Beerleaguer's launch to find a game with only 42 comments posted.

Most of this is due to the fact 70% of all BL posters were frontrunners, but I have to think the change in management is also a factor.

Besides Sandberg auditioning players he is also showcasing to Rube who has no biz in a Major League team and/or the organization.

I see Kratz went 0-4 but not a word from clout. Amazing how he'll criticize him.

*never criticize.

... I have to think the change in management is also a factor.

And Bingo was his name-o.

The new management barely bothers to post threads anymore...and the content is no different than 50 other Phillies blogs as the uniqueness that made BL interesting is pretty much dead.

Also, a weekend game during meaningless Sept games...not exactly gonna get a high post count.

While I do quite enjoy the writing of a couple of the "new guys", the blog has become overwhelmed w/ Comcastitude. NEPP is entirely correct in his observation that the uniqueness of Beerleaguer has been lost. At the very least, the tag "Alternative Viewpoints on the Philadelphia Phillies" no longer applies.

It's Comcastic!!!

Hey clout - I freely admit I'm a front-runner. Especially when the 25 man figures to by a 75 -80 win club for at least 10 years, or until the limited partnership is dissolved, and a baseball-savvy front office and general management team is assembled.

Again, in this state of tune, the hard-core Phillies fan is entitled to a heartfelt "who cares"? With the limited partnership machinations, I can't find a hint of evidence this team has quickly morphed into the "old" Pirates:

    ...The Pirates didn’t have a winning season in that span, the longest such stretch in the history of North American professional sports, and they weren’t just losing. They were losing a lot, 1,796 times in fact, more than the New York Yankees lost in the last 26 years, a span in which the Yanks played 1,000 more games. Over that span, they did things no team has ever done, like losing 37 of their final 54 games in 2012 to turn a potential playoff run into yet another failed season....


The Pittsburgh Pirates Are The 2013 Baseball Season’s Best Story

Whatever.

It's hard work to copy and paste stuff and put across multiple websites.

How many 'Dollar Dog' nights can you have in a season?

Phils' marketing dept is trying to figure that out for next year along with possibly 'Buck Bratwurst' night and other ballpark concession themed-nights.

"The Phillies have no plans for recent Cuban acquisition Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez to pitch competitively this season, Matt Gelb of The Philadelphia Inquirer says. The team sees Gonzalez sliding into the third slot of their 2014 rotation behind Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee. "We just want to see where he's at," assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said. "We want to get him assimilated into our organization and be ready to go for spring training"

http://www.philly.com/philly/blogs/phillies_zone/Phillies-have-no-plans-for-Miguel-Gonzalez-to-competitively-pitch.html

MAG is going to be the projected #3 starter next year?

This team is going to have some very mediocre starting pitching again if that is the case even with Hamels & Lee. If Lee falls off a bit next year, it will be a bottom 4-5 rotation in the NL.

Kind of makes you think they have seen enough of KK too & will possibly pass on resigning him.

Have you seen MAG pitch? Who is their number 3 now?

If they can sign KK for a couple of years at what he's making now, I'd do it. I would not, however, offer him 8 or 9 million (or whatever the "going rate" is for someone with is service time) after what I've seen from him this year. We can bring someone up from AAA to suck equally asa much as Kyle and he'll only be a half million.

Hey...I'm hoping you guys can answer a question for me. I know when players are added to the 60 day DL, it opens up a spot on the 40 man roster for other players. I'm wondering if Ryan Howard (or any player for that matter) finishes the year on the 60 day DL, is that spot available to protect potential Rule 5 picks?

"MAG" - who was identified on the Sugarhouse show by Missanelli verbally and in the graphic as "Antonio" rather than Alfredo - is a bullpen guy. His fastball is like Martin in that he doesn't hold his velocity as a starter. His fastball sits at 90 - 91 starting but can sit 94 - 97 out of the pen and move a lot.

If Gonzalez is a starter than this team is likely to be worse next year than this year.

ATTENDANCE MLB

Cleveland Indians

2000 3,456,278 1st

2013 1,438,205 29th

PHILLIES

2012 3,565,718 1st

Future?

David Montgomery is a graduate of the Wharton Business School. That school should rescind his diploma.


Bedrosian's Beard - No and neither have the Phils really.

Doesn't counting on him to be the projected No. 3 out of camp seen a bit on the ridiculous side?

Would you rather have Kendrick as the #3 you freaking whiner? No? Ok then.

In the 8th inning of the Sox/Yanks game, in for defensive purposes... Mini Mac! The crowd cheered lustily. Okay, maybe not...

3 reasons why I, along with many, probably don't post here anymore.

1) As NEPP pointed out, the threads are rarely, if ever anymore, posted by J. Weitzel, and his writing and viewpoint were a huge draw of this site. I often don't even read the thread headers anymore.

2) There is just way too much b!tching and cattiness here anymore. Not worth dealing with that sh!t if the team isn't playing well, especially when the comment section is now the ONLY reason to post anymore.

3) The team flat out blows this year, and outside of Brown, Ruf and maybe Asche, there's really no one worth watching for from a developmental perspective.

No real reason to be here much anymore.




Ben Badler @BenBadler
Masahiro Tanaka update tomorrow for Baseball America subscribers. No shock the Yankees were at his last start.




Lee, Cole, Cuban Defector, Free agent, Pettibone/Lannan ? Shame Morgan couldnt get auditioned.

Just glad I had something else to do today.

I know I'll probably get b$#ched at because "what do I care what players make," but Pettibone > second half KK, especially at what he'll get in arb.

"Most of this is due to the fact 70% of all BL posters were frontrunners, but I have to think the change in management is also a factor. -- Clout"

There are two factors:

1. There's not really anything to talk about. We could keep beating the same dead horse everyday for 200+ posts, but frankly I have better things to do with my free time.

2. The writing on Beerleaguer is just plain embarrassing. At this point, they'd do just as well to skip the articles entirely and make this a message board.

I was at the Eagles-Chargers game yesterday as my fiancee got me tickets for my birthday to see my Bolts beat the Eagles.

But the updates for the Phillies throughout were still disheartening. I'm glad Brown said something after the game. It would be nice if a young guy would try to take on a leadership role.

Also- MG is already complaining about the rotation for next year without knowing exactly what we are going to do about replacing- most likely- Kendrick and Lannan. Solid stuff.

And while the site has changed a lot and not for the better I do think the bigger issue with dropoff is the fact that, front runner fans are moving elsewhere. Which is fine, but just own that you are a front runner.

Shocking that the comments would decrease during meaningless games in September. Absolutely shocking.

Also when MAG was signed he was looked at as a #3-#5 and most of those who derided his signing said as much. Now we have guys bitching that the Phillies will try him out in the rotation in that exact spot?

"Also- MG is already complaining about the rotation for next year without knowing exactly what we are going to do about replacing- most likely- Kendrick and Lannan"

The Phillies have three starters in Hamels, Lee and Kendrick. The later should be the fifth starter. So the Phillies need two mid-rotation guys. Masahiro Tanaka and Matt Garza would fill those slots.

Pettibone for the Eagles fans who haven't been paying any attention has a shoulder like Halladay. Also Adam Morgan has a torn rotator cuff if you were thinking about him.

There is nothing from within who can fill the rotation. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is a reliever and should be a good one. With Martin, MAG and Diekman the pen problems should be solved.

***There is nothing from within who can fill the rotation. Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez is a reliever and should be a good one. With Martin, MAG and Diekman the pen problems should be solved.***

And you know this, of course, because of your vast experience and from having seen him play in all those games you attended in Cuba.

What's that? You're full of sh!t and are just a bombastic fool who likes to hear himself blather on?

Please continue then.

Are you Tanaka's agent? Do you get royalty checks everytime you mention his name?

you say tanaka
and, um, I say tanaka
call the whole thing off

Great game yesterday. Everyone I care about did pretty good.

Coffee, Tea or Tanaka...

It just seems ridiculously premature to label MAG as the projected #3 starter without knowing how he will do next spring.

If the Phils had seen him start in August & Sept at AA/AAA, at least they would have something to make a more sound judgement on.

If they are going into the offseason with him as their #3 starter and he flames out next spring/looks more suited to the bullpen, that is going to leave them a starter short already to start the season.

Not like they said he would 'contend for a starting rotation spot in spring' which is kind of what I expected them to say.

"Pettibone for the Eagles fans who haven't been paying any attention has a shoulder like Halladay. Also Adam Morgan has a torn rotator cuff if you were thinking about him."


Pettibone needs a bursa sac removed from his shoulder?

It just seems ridiculously premature to label MAG as the projected #3 starter without knowing how he will do next spring.

Seriously. It would be like moving Dom Brown to LF because you've signed D. Young to play RF.

Premature or not, the Phillies have decided that Gonzalez WILL be in the rotation this coming season, & whether he's #3 or #5 makes absolutely no practical difference. There's "Lee/Hamels", & "The Rest".

That type of short-sightedness could be the difference between 60 and 65 wins next year.

So Asche with a 117 OPS+ now. That's great, especially considering how he started out. I don't get to watch a lot of games b/c Im out of market, how's his fielding been?

Ruf has a homerun pace that would prodice 32 over 600 at bats. Has a 126 ops+. Also great.

Brown's slowed down, obviously, but he's still finishing the year much better numbers than nearly everyone thought he would

Surprisingly, at least to me, The Phillies have actually gotten some good performance this year from cost-controlled, young-ish guys (Asche, Brown, Ruf). Just imagine what could have been if the big money veterans had showed up this year.

None of us know anything about MAG. Even professional scouts had him all over the board, including both future projections and actual current arsenal.

I'm very excited to see him pitch as a starter. His performance will dictate if he's a #3 or not, but for a well below .500 team, it is a great move to get a int'l FA with his track record and try to hiton some high upside.

*** I don't get to watch a lot of games b/c Im out of market, how's his fielding been?***

Honestly? Hit or miss. He'll flash some great range and make some nice plays but he's made some glaring mental errors at times too. Those have seemingly subsided a bit as he's gotten more time there though.

Much better than M. Young of course.

I don't get to watch a lot of games b/c Im out of market, how's his fielding been?

Asche has made some truly great plays, but then he'll inexplicably uncork a grenade or two. I'll tack that up to youth & say surprisingly good overall.

They got a pretty good performance out of Revere too, until they started getting no performance out of him.

Lore you make a great point about Alfredo BL'ers only pretend to know. I suspect Rube will go after another big FA starter. I sort of think he has to especially with how the Halladay situation is going.

agree with NEPP/Gtown, Asche has been an overall average fielder so far. Shows the ability to stick there, but a lot of holes still.

For the way he's hit so far, it'll do. If he can keep that ISO up to go along with track record of good contact hitting, he will be worthy of starting gig.

Brown was playing LF in 2012 so he wasn't moved due to Donut being signed.

He played LF in 2012 until they traded Pence...then he played RF almost exclusively.

He had 449 innings in the OF last year...308 of them were in RF.

Schierholtz and Nix also got reps in RF after Pence was traded FWIW...I dont want to imply otherwise.

If Amaro is saying MAG is going to be the projected No. 3, then he isn't going after another big-name FA starter. It will be more of a Lannan-type signing with some question on whether they resign KK or not.

Here's a great article on the Pirates front office, manager, and players all working on developing and adopting a new defensive strategy based on data.

This is the kind of thing the Phillies under Amaro show absolutely no interest in whatsoever.

Brown was in left because he looked like... Delmon Young in right in 2010-2011 and, despite improvement, still bad in 2012. Pretty darn bad, in fact, and while he had the speed to help make up for it he wasn't getting good reads off the bat (something that appears to still be the case, although not to the same extent).

In fact, going off UZR/150, Brown was worse than 2013 Young in both 2010 and 2011 (almost twice as bad in 2010). That's pretty impressive, and probably part of the reason they're reluctant to move him back there mid-season.

Admittedly, the primary reason not to do it this year is pretty well gone, but it's possible they simply think he'll never stick there so there's no point in even trying. His arm would seem to fit, but I can understand if they think his glove/instincts wouldn't. Heck, he's been good for a -10.9 UZR/150 even in left this year.

I suspect that payroll will drop next year in relationship to the projected attendance drop...just like it did this year. Figure on a payroll closer to $140 million in 2014.

PLM: few days ago you asked what type of return KK could get if he's making $7.5M next year.

I know he's looked bad of late, but if you assume he's putting up his career numbers next year (95 ERA+, 1.35 WHIP) then I think you could still acquire some value.

Ricky Nolasco who has similar career numbers and was making $11M, returned 3 arms that qualified as prospects, albeit low end.

Scott Feldman returned some live arms like Arrieta and Strip.

Bud Norris got the Astros a couple nice pieces as well, altho he was more than a rental.

NEPP - I was just scoffing at the notion that Brown was moved primarily because Donut was signed. That's not how it happened at all.

So Opening Day lineup: 2014

Revere
Utley
Brown
Ruf
Howard
Chooch
Asche
Rollins
Lee

I'm not expecting reinforcements for the lineup next year. Guess is the team won't want to block Ruf or Asche with a mediocre vet. The real opportunity to improve is to move Ruf to 1st and sign an outfield bat, but I just don't see the team cutting bait on Howard. My guess is money goes to the bullpen and a starter. Maybe a competent bench bat/4th outfielder who can step in if Howard breaks down again.

The whole purpose of Donut's signing was to make Brown's defense look acceptable in RF going forward. We're all playing checkers while Rube is playing three-dimensional chess.

"I suspect that payroll will drop next year in relationship to the projected attendance drop" - NEPP


Yes, I remember the important lessons from business school on the bright side of death spirals.

The Phillies entered spring training with only center fielder Ben Revere set in the outfield. Delmon Young was signed to be the starting right fielder, but he'll open the season on the disabled list, so the corner spots were up for grabs.

Brown seized the opportunity. Barring injury, he should be starting in the outfield on opening day. Depending on whether Darin Ruf makes the team, Brown will either be in left or right.

"It really doesn't matter where," he said. "I've been in left long enough now to be comfortable. I kind of like taking more balls off the bat in left. I played right and center all my life. The slices were different. Now it's becoming natural."

http://www.foxsportswest.com/mobile/story/dom-brown-having-great-spring-for-philli?blockID=880309&tagID=57802


Although the Phillies anticipate Delmon Young getting consistent playing time in right field, he won’t be ready for action in the first two or three weeks. For that reason Manuel isn’t cementing Brown in left, since he could shuttle between left and right field early on.

“Yeah, he’s getting real comfortable (in left field),” Manuel said of Brown, who had defensive woes last season -- although he was playing on injured knees. “He’s getting comfortable with our team, without a doubt. I think those are two big things ...

http://www.thereporteronline.com/article/20130317/SPORTS12/130319575/phillies-notes-domonic-brown-clear-front-runner-to-start-in-left-field

NEPP: I'm pretty sure Ruben's playing some weird, real-time variant of Go. He's that far ahead of us.

But Young said he hasn’t been champing at the bit to get into Grapefruit League games.

“No, not really,” he said. “It’s cold and it’s only March 6. I’m not anxious at all.”

Regardless, Young is going to play right field and only right field whenever he joins the Phillies.

That is his preference.

That is the Phillies’ preference, too.

“Because he’s not good left field,” Amaro explained. “And he doesn’t want to play there. He’s a much better right fielder as he came through the system in Tampa Bay. He played center and right. He was a plus defender in right and because of the circumstances got away from that in other organizations. He’s much more suited for right field.”

Of course, that creates an interesting situation whenever Young joins the Phillies lineup. If the season started today, it seems like a certainty Domonic Brown will be in right field. But it sounds like even if Brown starts the season hitting well and playing solid defense in right he will be making the switch to left.

Amaro doesn’t consider that an issue because he said it’s a push when it comes to Brown’s ability to play left or right.

http://zozone.mlblogs.com/2013/03/06/delmon-young-to-step-up-rehab/#more-2134372

MG: You are using conjecture as fact here.

Also, there is some book on MAG. It's not as if they've never seen him pitch.

jbird: we're on the same page. I also like your lineup.

I think not getting tied up into any long term deals is actually a pretty smart thing to do, which is probably the smartest thing Amaro did last offseason - made no major commitments.

If this team has any shot, guys like DOM, Ruf, Revere, and Asche are all going to need to start very strong. If that happens, then use the flexibility saved on some deadline moves to make a push. If it doesn't happen, you were going to be screwed anyway so why bother handing out contracts to vets ahead of time?

Giving Howard another shot in 2014 also leaves Franco an opening if Howard falters, I suppose. I know you can't bank on prospects, but it may be a reason to leave Ruf in the outfield.

So to summarize - the Phillies toyed with Brown in LF during 2012 (including the fact that he played almost exlusively there in LV). Came into 2013 with him playing LF and RF in ST, but when he started hitting like crazy in ST, kept him in LF because he either said he felt comfortable there or they felt he was more comfortable there. He wasn't moved exclusively because Donut was signed. This isn't rocket science.

But honestly - I would shift DOM back to RF and plug Ruf in LF. Of course they haven't done that so they probably won't.

I had almost forgotten about the Young quote about how he was too cold to play and wasn't looking forward to it.

It was a pretty shocking thing to say at the time, but it had largely been replaced by his abominable play.

On another note, I remember my dad, who had come of age during the "El Pholdo" Gene Mauch Phillies, convinced even during the 2008 season that they were going to find a way to screw things up. There were a few good years in there, but it looks like we're back to the same old "Pholdos". We shouldnt be asking "if" theyre going to screw things up anymore, just "how". Wonder how long until they start putting tickets into the hot dogs again.

Redburb: Your assertion is universally contradicted by the record. I suppose we'll have to "agree to disagree."

Dom's below average defensively in both corners.

He was worse in left this year than he was in right last year, but the 2 years before that he was nearly-worst-in-the-league bad in right.

His bat makes up for a lot, and his arm profiles as a RF, but that may be all. If he's close to his MLB average in RF, we're talking Delmon Young bad - just for different reasons.

Wait, so you're saying DOM wasn't playing LF in 2012?

Listen, I think this is a silly argument so I'm not going any further with it. The basic fact is that the FO planned extremely poorly.

Remember in summer 2012 they moved DOM to CF? That would have been awesome.

I'll be sad if Ben Revere doesn't come back this season, as it'll mean we'll miss the chance to see Dom in CF and Revere in LF. It'd be the perfect capstone of the season, as even when our regular OFs are healthy, they'd still be playing out of position.

Revere is well-suited to playing LF. Even more so if the fences were moved in 150'.

Mike Trout leads the league walks and is 3 away from leading the league in hits. He would be the first person since Lenny Dykstra(1993) to do so.

Only Yastrzemski(1963), Richie Ashburn(1958) and Roger Hornsby(1924) have done it before Nails.

It's sort of ridiculous how good Mike Trout is. There's really no such thing as hyperbole with him at this point. He's the clear-cut best player in baseball, at age 21, and has been for two years now.

Jack: still liking Harper long term? Trout just keeps getting better, its insane.

another random semi-phillies related fact:

The last person to lead the NL in strikeouts for 4 consecutive seasons is Juan Samuel (1984-1987).

LorecorE: At this point, it's sort of hard to.

Still, it is of course possible that Harper could overtake Trout at some point. Trout could pull a Ken Griffey Jr. and fade away in his second decade, and Harper could be Barry Bonds and get better over time (without the juice, hopefully).

But yeah, Trout is looking like an all-time great right now.

I mean, Bryce Harper is hitting .280/.381/.504 as a 20-year old. If he played the entire season (instead of missing 50 or so games), he'd be one of the top 10-15 players in baseball this year.

That's phenomenal. It's juts crazy that it isn't even the best season by a 20-year old in the last 18 months.

Would Bryce Harper be considered a Super Two this offseason?

How does that work if he's already signed a pre-arb contract through 2015? Will his arb time accumulate during the deal, and then be in his 3rd year of arb in 2016 - or does the prearb deal delay his status past 2016?

I have no idea how it works. Harper is said to be entering Arb-1 in 2016 according to b-ref, but that can't be right, can it?

He'll make $2.5M in 2015, his 4th full season in the bigs.

"MG: You are using conjecture as fact here."

Amaro was quoted as saying MAG was the projected No 3 starter. Now maybe his thinking might change a bit depending up on what they do with KK but there is no conjecture there. Directly from the GM himself.

Harper might end up better than Trout, but right now Trout is the best player in baseball.

Its fun to watch both of them and I'm just grateful that the Nats passed on Trout to select Drew Storen that year (and Strasburg at #1).

Jack - That was a really great article on the Pirates.

MG: I know what Amaro said. That is not my point of contention. My point is you assuming now what they will do based off of that.

Just stop it.

Trout is just ridiculously good and I wish I could see him more.

Its interesting how the Angels, Yankees, and the Phils are already pretty much in the same boat right now with a couple of bad, expensive long-term contracts, lack of young MLB-ready talent, and mediocre to barren farm systems.

Phillies are -225 tonight! Never thought I'd see that day.

If I were MG, i'd be going heavy on the debut of Marlins' Sam Dyson at that price.

TTI - Are you just being argumentative for the sake of being argumentative?

Yes I understand Amaro says a lot of things but that was a pretty direct answer to a largely unknown quantity.

*debut as a starter, has pitched in relief a few times.

MG: I could be mistaken, but I believe what TTI is saying is that it doesn't make sense to take the penciling-in of MAG at #3 as evidence for any other moves/lack-of-moves.

I'd imagine part of the reason for that is because Amaro certainly wasn't shy about picking up additional top-of-the-line starters despite having an already-great rotation (see: Oswalt, Roy; Lee, Cliff).

Phillibuster: Exactly right.

Amaro said MAG will be their #3 starter. Okay.

MG takes that comment and says, "They are not going to sign anyone good and the rotation will be awful again."

That is a ridiculous assertion to jump to in September.

Philibuster - They aren't going to have the payroll flexibility though to go out and bid on a Garza and give him what say Sanchez got last offseason (5 yr/$80M).

Likelihood Garza will be the highest-paid starter on the FA market (along with Kuroda) and make even more than Sanchez did last year.

FA market might be particularly thin this offseason too. There is a chance a like Nolasco might be the 3rd best option available.

Shields and Lester will likely have their options picked up for '14.

That leaves Garza, Burnett, Nolasco, E. Santana, de la Rosa with the next tier down being Arroyo, Jimenez, Lincecum, Hudson, Feldman, Kazmir, and Colon.

B. Chen is always available though.

KK is probably in the bottom end of that 2nd tier right around where Hughes will end up being.

It wouldn't surprise me at all if the Phils do not offer arbitration to KK now and see what they might be able to land on the FA market.

Given that even back-end starters are getting $6M and up and the Phils need to upgrade their offense, not exactly sure what the Phils could get for $6-$8M though.

Looking at this list though I wouldn't offer KK arbitration though and pay him $7.5-$8M next year.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=pit&lg=all&qual=0&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2013&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=978%2c6176%2c126%2c512%2c1701%2c1292%2c769%2c375%2c2047%2c6283%2c3886%2c4684%2c1077%2c232%2c3340%2c1303%2c4538%2c1451%2c1757%2c3273%2c921%2c7450%2c3374%2c4567%2c5879%2c4897%2c3283%2c4930%2c1259%2c833%2c5705%2c8678%2c6204%2c105%2c3830%2c571%2c5203%2c840%2c2586%2c7507%2c3200%2c755%2c4366%2c7059%2c8044%2c1011%2c3990%2c2074%2c412%2c3196%2c944%2c1783%2c6432&sort=19%2cd

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