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Friday, September 13, 2013

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A passionate fan will root for the Phillies to win their remaining games.

An intelligent fan will hope that they go on a losing streak for the rest of the season.

To pretend otherwise is to ignore the simple truth that it is in the best interest of this franchise, both for 2014 and beyond.

This loss is a victory for the Phillies. Winning any further games this season will directly hurt our chances to contend in 2014.

@Will- Come on phils! Lose!

Let Kendrick walk after this, unless the plan is to make him a reliever next year

You jest, Mikeh, but that's exactly what I'm saying.

At this point in the 2013 season, there are three types of fans:

1. Fans who admit that they hope for losses, but also for excellent individual performances from players who may play an important role in 2014.

2. Fans who do not admit that they hope for losses, but are nonetheless smart enough to know that every win will lessen the chances that the Phillies will sign an impact player this winter or will cost them the highest draft pick they've had in a long time.

3. Stupid fans who simply cannot grasp the concept that the current collective bargaining agreement punishes losing ballclubs that aren't bad enough to be among the worst 10 teams of the season.

I didn't make the rules, but I'm not foolish enough to ignore them. For the remainder of 2013, a win is a loss and a loss is a win.

And I agree, offering arbitration to Kendrick would be idiotic. Try to bring him back on a 2 year, team friendly contract or move on. The drop off between Kendrick and Pettibone/Cloyd isn't worth the difference in cost between Kendrick and Pettibone/Cloyd, and for 9 million bucks, they can shop elsewhere.

Fasting sucks. I don't know how I'm gonna make it 25 hours.

If this team was a dog only a cruel owner would not put it down.

Another 'tip your cap night.' Phils have now scored (3.78 R/G).

Only the White Sox and Fish have score less this year and both team are in full-out rebuilding mode.

Phils are already in historical territory for the franchise in terms of inept offense. '88 team was the last time they had an offense this bad (3.71 R/G).

Before that it was the '72 team which has the dubious distinction of being the worst Phils' offensive team since WW2 (3.22 R/G).

'72 team was shutout 13 times and held to 1 run 30 times.

'88 team was shutout 16 times and held to 1 run 19 times.

'13 team has been shutout 13 times already and held to 1 run 15 times.

Gelb should have asked Montgomery what Amaro was going to do this offseason to improve on one of the worst offensive clubs in the last ~70 years of the franchise.

would really like to tender kk and then get something for him next year. His tanking in the 2nd half is not helping that cause.

What do you think KK would bring back Lore? Another B level relief arm? Though i suppose you could tender him and at some point bring up Morgan which might not be too much of a drop off. Depends on what the price is.

Looking ahead. I think I'm gonna trade a few guys. kK galvis and ruf are going to be a good start. Book it

Rollins has shown much improvement. Only 3 infield pop ups last night. Watch out next year

Biddle Franco and Quinn in MLB top 100 prospects

Considering there seemed to have been zero interest in Kk at this deadline, can't imagine there would be much next year when he's making 7 or 8 million.

Excellent point, BedBeard. It's a damn shame about Kendrick. "Good Kendrick" was a desperately needed part of a quick Phillies rebuild.

Regardless of whether his poor performances have been triggered by his concussion (something I believe), now his ineptitude is simply another missing part requiring replacement.

What a stinking lousy and unlucky team.

I think eventually we'll hear about Kendrick having dealt with lingering post-concussion symptoms in the second half of this season. Not that he's so great, but he hasn't been the same since his injury and we all know how bad this team is at handling injuries.

Timr,
You may be right about KK and his injury...and you may not be right.

KK is not good enough, even healthy, to take the $9M risk.

"Gelb should have asked Montgomery what Amaro was going to do this offseason to improve on one of the worst offensive clubs in the last ~70 years of the franchise."


When Ryan Howard comes back and makes a fool of you, MG, and this is the best offense in MLB, you'll regret that post.

Bonehead and Timr, you're both probably correct.

KK has not been the same, and I wonder if his mechanics are slightly off because of the injury, has it affected his balance somehow? Beats me, I'm just speculating.

But even if he was the KK up until this season (not including this year pre-concussion) he's a real stretch at 9MM.

I think the Phillies will tender him a contract and go to arb. If they can't work out a deal that they can live with, maybe a lower base with some incentives, then they can always work out a deal to trade or release him at that time.

I don't think the rules are going to force them to cut bait at the end of the season, though if someone knows more than I, please correct me.

awh - Once the Phils tender KK, the team is on the hook. If the parties cannot work out a deal, then they go through the arb process. No matter what the arb decision, its a one-year, guaranteed deal.

I don't know. We seem to go through a similar discussion every year.

Polanco has a ridiculous April in 2011. Then he has an injury and, when he returns, he proceeds to stink it up something fierce for the rest of the year. Everyone assumes cause and effect, while ignoring the more probable explanation that April was an anomaly and that he had already been in decline for several years. Lo and behold, the "healthy" Polanco has declined further in each of the last 2 seasons.

At the end of 2011 and the beginning of last year, Vance Worley pitched far better than anything in his track record or scouting reports ever predicted. Then he had an injury. When he returned, he was terrible. Many assumed cause and effect. Lo and behold, he has been terrible again this year.

I feel like we're going through the same thing with Kendrick. He did have improved numbers in 2011 and 2012, but his xFIP was still mediocre and the 2 seasons combined basically added up to a little more than one full year of starts. Something tells me that KK's history of mediocrity is a far more likely explanation for his lousy 2013 season than a "mild concussion" which happened more than 2 months ago.

BAP - I might agree with you about KK, but he's clearly not the same pitcher he was when going well. His pitches that had sink and bite are now floating helplessly up in the zone and getting smacked like batting practice. Is it the concussion? Some other unknown injury? Or just a change in mechanics? I'd suggest it may be both the concussion, which can have long lasting effects, and mechanics, although I haven't picked up anything different in his delivery.

If Polanco hadn't had groin, back and other injuries concurrently, I have no doubt he'd still be cranking out .300 plus, great glove seasons. But it's hard to play when you're basically two unattached halves of a person. And at his age, it's very tough to ever recover form such insults. Could he have declined that much just because of age? Yeah, but I wouldn't expect it to be quite so steep.

aksmith: I don't think Polanco's decline has been any steeper than the norm. He basically went from a .300 singles hitter to a .280-.290 singles hitter in his mid-30s, to a .240-.250 hitter in his late 30s.

As for KK, I would agree that his pitches don't look the same now as they did when he was pitching well. But is that because of the concussion or is it because that's just the normal ups and downs of a typical Kyle Kendrick major league season? I would tend toward the latter explanation.

I watch for Asche, Hernandez, Galvis and Ruf. Brown when he returns.

A bottom ten finish would indeed have a silver lining. But I temper any desire for such with the knowledge that Ruben is still the guy messing up the draft and free agent signings.

Rube is certainly a problem. But the higher the draft pick, the less likely he is to mess it up.

He screwed up badly with a handful of non-signed picks in the most recent draft. But he appears to have hit in the number one pick. The kid didn't really impress me before the draft, but he did well in his short season ball. That isn't necessarily a prognosticator of future success, but it's better than what usually happens to Phillies draft picks in their initial contact with short season ball. They usually suck hard.

I think the important thing to highlight with KK is that his 'regression to mediocrity' had already started before the concussion- however, that regression looked nothing like what happened post-concussion.

To provide some context: his BABIP the last two years as a starter was around .270. His LD% as a starter the last two years- around 18%. Career, those numbers are in the .290s and around 20%, respectively.

Breaking down KK's season into quadrants:

First 8 starts: 2.47 ERA, 6.42 K/9, 1.65 BB/9, 19% LD, .261 BABIP

This was 'Let's sign him to an extension quick' KK that everyone was fawning over. Some help from BABIP, for sure, but more Ks and fewer walks led to a lot more success.

Next 8 starts: 4.50 ERA, 5.02 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 19% LD, .282 BABIP

Here was the regression. His K rate down, his walk rate up- basically a 5th starter for these 8 starts, with a LD rate around the same as his first 8. Combine these two stretches and you have a starter with around an ERA of 3.50- or, what KK has been the last two+ seasons in a starting role.

Next 8 (starting with the concussion game): 7.07 ERA, 4.50 K/9, 2.14 BB/9, 24% LD, .375 BABIP.

Is it just a coincidence that he completely fell off a cliff when he got hit in the head? His K/9 dropped even more and his LD immediately went up. You'd be hard pressed to find many lengthy stretches like this for KK in the middle of a season the past couple of years.

Next 6: 5.67 ERA, 5.67 K/9, 2.97 BB/9, 23% LD, .342 BABIP

A little better, but a much higher walk rate and the same increase in LD%. BABIP also much higher than career average.

All this is to say, I don't know how anyone can look at the numbers- and when exactly this steep decline started- and make the argument that the concussion issue is all just a big coincidence. It has had a lasting effect on his performance.

Considering there seemed to have been zero interest in KK at this deadline, can't imagine there would be much next year when he's making 7 or 8 million.

I'm having Blanton flashbacks.


Something tells me that KK's history of mediocrity is a far more likely explanation for his lousy 2013 season than a "mild concussion" which happened more than 2 months ago.

Exactly.

Kendrick has pitched a career high 182.0 IP this season. 4.70 ERA, 1.396 WHIP. The only other time Kendrick pitched nearly so many innings was '10, w/ 180.2 IP. The results? 4.73 ERA, 1.373 WHIP. In fact, his numbers for "10 & '13 are extremely close across the board. There's no injury conspiracy, this is simply Kyle being Kyle ... & Kyle is not worth $8-10 million/year.

GTown going back to 2010 to explain why the concussion is just a coincidence. I'm impressed by the willful ignorance, but I'm not surprised.

KK had 250 IP as a starter since the beginning of 2012 with an ERA in the mid-3s (145 last year, 105 this year). Post concussion he's had an ERA in the mid-6s.

Is it more significant that he pitched 180 innings in 2010...and therefore fair to assume he just turned into a pumpkin this year with 50 fewer IP than he had all of last year? A tough call.

I think Iceman and GTown are the same person. The former always directs his posts at the latter but the latter never responds. The former doesn't notice or stop blabbering though. This is hilarious to me.

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