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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

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Great Travis Lee vignette.

Until now Bernadina's excessive PT didn't figure but it's finally crystallized -- r00b is showcasing Bernie to put him in a package with Franco and Revere for Stanton.

Not that I cared much for Travis from the beginning, but that play in Miami basically sealed my loathing for him. What an a**hole. "Travis Leave" remains my favorite Vet Stadium banner of all time.

The 2002 season is also notable to me as the only season of the past 13 where I was not present for the final home game of the regular season. I had tickets, but it washed out & was not rescheduled due to the the Phillies being out of contention, & the Braves having run away w/ the division.

Also, I don't even wish to consider the asinine machinations in which r00b will likely engage to land his latest white whale. The man is scat King Midas. Everything he touches turns to sh*t.

The old three runs and a cloud of dust rears its ugly head for the umpteenth time this year, and results in the usual loss. And yes, Stanton's bat would sure look good in the Phillies lineup next year.

Dragon, three yards and a cloud of dust went out with the Vet's astroturf.

Uh, second and third, nobody out. Anyone? Buehler?

when rube saw stanton's form on his blast to another planet, a little tingle went up his leg.

Uh, second and third, nobody out. Anyone? Buehler?

It's happened so often this year that it has become a non-story. They NEED to have better situational hitting next year, no question. That killed them this year and cost them more than a few ballgames.

Hernandez is an on base machine. Legit? Seems like he got on base at a decent clip in minors..nothing like this though.

Hernandez is earning a long, long look at being the starting CF on this team next year. Revere-Hernandez-Brown is an interesting OF. Not much power there, but it's an OF costing you less than $2M. That allows this team to spend more on a SP and the 'pen.

Obviously, if there's a RH power hitting OF reasonably available in FA or trade (I don't think Stanton is "reasonable" option), then by all means go for it. But we could do worse that Revere-Hernandez-Brown, especially when factoring in the cost.

It's an intriguing option. Hernandez is certainly making it difficult to keep him off this roster. And he can't play 2B for this team because it's is locked up for the foreseeable future.

Hernandez,Biddle, and Brown= Stanton.

Phillies would love that deal, could throw Ruf in LF and Stanton in RF. Of course I don't think the Marlins are going to give up Stanton for that haha.

I just can't see the Phils coming up with a package that would interest the Fish enough and even if they were willing to 'sell the farm' why trade Stanton to a division rival?

... why trade Stanton to a division rival?

Normally I'd agree, but this is Miami. I wonder how much they care about such things.

And let's also not underestimate r00b's capacity for overpayment.

There's no way to get Stanton without a severe overpay. It doesn't make sense. In order to get Stanton, you'd create other holes that'll need to be filled in one of two ways: (1) free agency, so the payroll will increase even more, therefore, neglecting other holes that you already have, ie rotation and bullpen; or (2) kids from the system that are not ready for MLB.

How does that improve the team? I think getting Stanton will be a net-negative for the team one way or another.

If they found room for Mini they certainly can squeeze Ceasar in there.

RBill: I really don't think Hernandez is earning himself a shot at the CF starting job. His arm is Revere-esque, he's not as fast, and he hasn't been playing the outfield long enough to have even Revere-level instincts about it.

Now, is Hernandez working to be the backup CF/2B and a platoon in LF? I could see that. A Hernandez/Ruf platoon as "the other corner outfielder" would be cheap, offer backup options at 3 other positions, and lets you stack the deck a bit against either-handed pitching (could put Ruf in for Howard against lefties too).

"Also, I don't even wish to consider the asinine machinations in which r00b will likely engage to land his latest white whale. The man is scat King Midas. Everything he touches turns to sh*t.'


GTown,r00b was a good GM for a team that had already won a WFC. He improved that team, and they won more games in each of the next three seasons. But they key is that he was signing or trading for TOP MLB talent, guys like Raul, Lee and Halladay. He was picking from the top of the list - from guys who had already had great MLB track records. There really was very little that could have gone wrong (barring injury of course).

Give credit where credit is due. And for the record, I defended him at the time (even though I'm on the record here as preferring Arbuckle when r00b was hired).

AAMOF, he improved then and they were the best team in MLB in 2010 and 2011, despite not winning the WS again.

However, the red flags started to be raised with the first Lee trade to Seattle - when they got back absolute crap (use "dogsh8t", "dreck", "garbage", "chum", "some dudes", "zip", "nada", "walking abortions" or any other adjective you like to describe them) in return for Lee. Absolute crap. And do not absolve Dave Montgomery for blame in that inglorious event. Montgomery shares the blame, because HE let it happen - in fact he may have MADE it happen because they were looking to dump payroll. And then they wound up having to trade for Oswalt because they were short SP. Dumb and shortsighted. Dummyball!

So, to summarize, r00d DID take a WFC team and improve it. But the first Lee trade and his extremely BAD additions - they don't even qualify as "questionable", they were just BAD - the last couple of seasons lead me to the viewpoint that he's just not a good enough judge of talent to rebuild a team.

He just isn't. And the problem at the top (and there IS a problem) - Dave Montgomery - is either too loyal, t00 st00pid, or t00 prideful to admit he made a mistake when he hired r00b. And I question whether Montgomery has the judgment himself to make the right decision. This was evident in his comment in the interview when he said that he felt on of the qualifications that r00b had as GM was the fact that he considered a "variety of opinions" when making a decision. Well, that's just wrong. It's the decision itself that matters, not how many opinions one considers when making one.

So, the Phillies are stuck with a GM who's a good caretaker - a guy who can make big trades for top talent and sign big name FA's - but not a guy who's a good enough judge of talent to build a team from guys who have not yet (and may never) prove themselves at the MLB level.

On a board that indulges in ridiculous notions- replacing Revere with Hernandez is high on the list

"... why trade Stanton to a division rival?"


They did once trade Carlos Delgado within the division to the Mets, so it's not unprecedented that they'll do it with good talent if the return is right.

I'm on record here, though, about Stanton.

Very wary because of the injuries.

Cant we just be happy that Hernandez might be a solid bench player next year?

I don't understand the Hernandez in the outfield thing any more than anyone else. Sure, it would be nice if every infielder took a few reps in the outfield just in case it's needed during a game. And the pitchers should probably do the same. But Hernandez is a second baseman and possibly a good one. If anyone should be playing the outfield, it's Utley. It would be better on his knees. And his bat plays anywhere on the field but first base, which would actually be his best defensive position.

But Hernandez replacing Revere doesn't really make much sense.

If Rube empties the farm for Stanton, he's a moron. I didn't see the homerun yesterday, but I did see enough Stanton at bats before that to know he's a greatly flawed player, lousy on defense, oft injured.

It's nice to have homeruns. But exactly what else does he bring besides a throwing arm and power? Every other part of the game he is well below average. Not a bad player to have. But certainly not a player to give up Biddle, Franco and Brown for, and that's likely what it would take.

ak: Normally I'd agree about Chase's knees, but I don't think we know enough about how he handles the condition to make the judgment that the normal adages on the subject apply there. After all, it was more time taking grounders and exerting his knees that seems to have helped clear up his pain problems, rather than less.

It very well might be better, but I don't think we can say that with any surety given the situation.

"A Hernandez/Ruf platoon as "the other corner outfielder"


'buster, please explain this: Given his performance against RHP at the MLB level, and his performance against RHP the last two years in the minors, which you can view here:

2012: http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=573131&split=2012

2011: http://minorleaguecentral.com/player?pid=573131&split=2011


...please explain why it make any sense to platoon Ruf and take his power bat out of a lineup that desperately need right-handed power?

awh: The last thing r00b did for which he deserves credit was the initial Cliff Lee trade in '09, & that only happened because his attempt at trading for Halladay fell through. It doesn't take much skill or imagination to acquire what are, or what appear to be, the best available players, only a pen, the farm system someone else built, & a large bank account. The GM's reactionary decision making & lack of foresight have largely depleted the latter two elements, leaving what ought to have been a perennial contender a sub-.500 team w/ a payroll bloated by the aging & injured.

Smitty, good analysis of Stanton. His skill set "screams" AL DH at some point in his career.

GTown, we are in agreement. I was merely provising some context.

"His skill set "screams" AL DH at some point in his career."

Or NL DH, which is coming as soon as 2014.

Yeah. Let's trade Franco. Throw in Biddle, too. And why not Crawford while we'
re at it? (Just as a toss-in.)

It's funny how one injury-plagued year has soured everyone on Stanton. A year ago, the guy hit .290/.361/.608 as a 22-year old & I remember posters on Beerleaguer saying they'd trade everyone in our farm system to get him. Now, granted, that was an exaggeration. And Franco, Biddle & Dom would probably be a bit over the top. But I would gladly trade Franco, Biddle, and others to get him.

"If Rube empties the farm for Stanton, he's a moron."

This.


(But unfortunately, he is.)

"But exactly what else does he bring besides a throwing arm and power? Every other part of the game he is well below average."

Not true. Even in this down year, he has a .368 OBP & a huge number of walks (some of which, admittedly, are due to the hideous lineup around him). And his UZR graded out above average in every season until this one. He also hit .290 last year. I'll be flat-out shocked if Stanton doesn't win at least one or two MVPs before his career ends.

awh: For his career, Ruf has much better numbers against LHP than RHP in the minors. This year, he's had weirdly reverse-splits (not as bad as Howard vs. lefties, but not tremendously better either).

Factor in his minus defense everywhere but first (also: at first) and the fact that we'd have an outfield with poor defenders in both corners when he plays the outfield (Brown's also bad) and a CF who doesn't always get good reads... And yes, there's plenty of reason to not have his power bat in the lineup against right-handed starters.

The only reason we "desperately need right-handed power" is because we don't have someone who can hit punish left-handed pitching. Since Ruf hasn't done that this year, and since we have several guys who can punish right-handed starters, the need for his well-below-average defense is less great against guys who Howard and Utley can crush.

Incidentally (again, caveat vis-a-vis advanced defensive metrics, and potentially SSS), thus far Howard is a better defensive 1B than Ruf at the MLB level.

If you believe the Phillies have a realistic shot at making the Postseason in the next year or two, re-signing Utley made sense. If you don't believe the Phillies have a realistic shot at making the Postseason in the next year or two, you have to wonder why blocking Cesar Hernandez from his natural position made sense to anyone.

The only thing which seems clear at the moment is that Hernandez has been playing too well to relegate him to a bench role. Of course he might not continue to play so well ... but how will the Phillies ever know unless Cesar remains a starter?

Off the wall prediction: r00b tries something like Franco, Hernandez & Ruf for Stanton.

GTown Dave - Disagree on Utley. You didn't pass on resigning him to a team-friendly deal for C. Hernandez.

If Utley had wanted say 3 yr/$45M, that is a different story.

Other than Hamels, there is no one I wouldn't trade for Stanton.

Dom Brown and the prospects that a trade of Lee to a third team would yield would be a good start for the package it would take to get Stanton. Even more may be needed, however.

Regardless, the Phils will not be a good team in 2014. They won't be good until they add a couple more stars besides Hamels and Stanton.

This is fun to talk about, but I don't think Stanton will become a Phillie.

Does having Giancarlo Stanton on the roster in 2014 make this a playoff team?

I'd go with No personally...given that answer, does it make sense to empty out the farm in an overpay to acquire him. By the time he'd make a difference, he'd be super expensive anyway. This was his last pre-arb year...he starts to cost big money going forward and he's a FA in 2017.

MG: No, just for Hernandez. And again, that depends on whether you think you have a chance of winning in the immediate future or not. Otherwise, why not make a qualifying offer for Utley & take the draft pick when he leaves?

*Not just for Hernandez

"Does having Giancarlo Stanton on the roster in 2014 make this a playoff team?"

Hard to really tell without knowing what other moves are made, but it greatly improves the team/offense, especially if you could find away to keep Brown as well.

Might the Fish bite on Brown, Biddle and (their pick) Hernandez or Revere?

Utley's deal is presumably structured around the idea that he'll be here for at least 3 years. If he's still productive then, that gives 2015/2016 as possible playoff runs to consider.

Also, there's the familiarity factor with the fan base. Lotta Utley merch to sell, and just look at how many tickets they sold for "Chase Utley Tote Bag Day" (45,276).

I've always maintained the asking price for Giancarlo Stanton starts at the top positional prospect and top pitching prospect that an organization has, plus an MLB-ready corner OF and, depending upon the quality of the top positional/pitching prospects, another 1-2 Top 10 throw-ins. If you're serious about Stanton, you're looking at the Hunter Pence trade's prospect yield plus a replacement for Stanton in the Fish's OF.

I'm quite glad that the Phils don't have the pieces to trade for Stanton. He's going to cost a fortune and he's going to be arb-eligible after this season, meaning he's going to stop being cheap. And, after the Hunter Pence debacle, I have absolutely no faith in this organization to hunker down and pay Stanton the sizable sums he'll make throughout his arbitration years.

There's also the injury "concern". The fact is that he missed ~40 games in 2012 and is on pace to miss ~50 this year. What's the old saying: Once is happenstance, twice is a coincidence, and thrice is a conspiracy? That he's been dinged up and missed sizable chunks of the season at such a young age could just be bad injury luck. Or it could be indicative that he's vulnerable to nagging soft tissue injuries. We just don't know enough one way or the other, which given the princely sum Stanton will command, ought to give everyone cold feet.

The idea that Stanton isn't worth having is ridiculous. As a 22 year-old and logging only 501 PAs, he was good for 5.6 fWAR last year. And thus far, in a down year, he's been good "only" for 2.5 fWAR as a 23 year-old. He's just not worth what it will cost to an organization that's already in the past two seasons traded its top prospects for a RHB corner OF with a couple of years of team control.

If Stanton were available...do you not think that a couple other ballclubs, perhaps clubs with very deep farm systems, just might be interested in him as well?

I'd imagine the Rangers, for one, would jump on him if he were made available.

Profar might be having a rough Age 20 season but he's still a better prospect than anything we have to offer.

If Stanton were available ... do you not think that a couple other ballclubs, perhaps clubs with very deep farm systems, just might be interested in him as well?

I certainly hope so.

nepp: exactly. no matter what package the Phillies can build for the Marlins, about half the league could/would top with ease.

gtown: if cesar hernandez is even a worthy mlb player, the Phillies control his right for the next 6, possibly 7 years.

Why would you pass on a team friendly deal for Chase Utley when you'll always have Cesar around anyway?

Depending on the bidding situation, however, it's possible they wouldn't, even though they could.

Really, if the Ruben ever finds that Stanton is obtainable, that should probably be a red flag moment as to why he is.

I don't know, Phillibuster. Throw in enough MLB-ready talent and you can probably overcome the upside of a Top 10-in-baseball prospect like Profar.

Of course, then you're looking at something like Franco, Biddle, Brown, and Asche. But that's such a grotesque overpayment that it should be dismissed out of hand.

"no matter what package the Phillies can build for the Marlins, about half the league could/would top with ease."

That's very likely true. But that's a separate issue from saying that you wouldn't give up Franco, Biddle, and others to get him -- which is what I understand people to be saying.

Stop with the Stanton stuff. A few months ago Seidman made a post that (correctly) said it was too far-fetched to even have a discussion on it. What has changed between then and now?

And you can't overpay if you don't have anything to pay with. The Rangers were unable to put together anything for Stanton despite trying- how the hell would we top anything they had to offer?

Iceman:
Simple. A time-share on Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels! There's gotta be value in half the starts of each of those guys, right? I'm sure the fact that the way MLB rosters work wouldn't allow it can be papered over with pixie dust and burlap sacks of money.

Juums: I think that it's impossible for us to beat what a number of other teams could offer for Stanton.

I also think it's possible for us to beat what a number of other teams would offer. It would, however, involve breaking out the shovels for both talent and money.

In all, I think that if we're in a position where we might land Stanton, it's either because we're getting way over heads in what we'd have to give up, or it's because there's something wrong with Stanton. In either case, it should be a red flag in Ruben's mind that he should take another look.

Phillibuster:
Re: being in over our heads, well said. It's not impossible to imagine a situation where the stars align and the Phils can obtain Stanton. But it is impossible to imagine such a situation where it'd be worth what would be paid. (Either due to sheer overpayment or his being damaged goods.)

JoeCatz over at Good Phight was advocating a trade:

Brown and Howard for Carlos Gonzalez

"Would that team be willing to trade Carlos Gonzalez and his $64,000,000 for three years of Ryan Howard at $85,000,000 if the Phillies paid, say, $30,000,000 of that contract AND included Domonic Brown? Maybe a few other fringe players?

Think about it for a second. Ryan Howard in Coors Field. Domonic Brown in Coors Field. for what amounts to a combined $16-17mm a year, which is essentially what they are paying CarGo."

Throw in Mini Mart.

They might need Galvis if we're asking for Tulo.

So, we'd have Ryan Howard, Domonic Brown, Freddy Galvis, Michael Martinez, and Ruben Amaro, Jr. going to the Rockies in exchange for Carlos Gomez and Troy Tulawitski.

It's certainly the type of blockbuster that the Phils would favor: Swapping one of our bad contracts for two of theirs, plus creating a positional bottleneck with two highly paid players competing for playing time at the same position.

'buster, for a host of reasons I disagree about Ruf.

Almost forgot: Roy Halladay, Cliff Lee and Cole Hamels. They don't produce.

According to Salisbury, Ryne Sandberg is expected to be announced as the 2014 manager in the upcoming week.

I would rather wait to see if Mike Scioscia gets the ax or not, and hire him instead - and if not, just keep Sandberg.

Awh: as is your right. But it's not like there aren't reasons for not giving him a full-time, starting role.

The Phils aren't going to eat anywhere near of $30M on Howard's contact. Non-starter.

Been watching Sandberg so far and it is really tough to come to any kind of conclusion on him so far as for his managerial tendencies because the roster is so depleted.

Almost seems to be trying out new things most nights and if they are working a bit maybe sticking with for a bit.

On a similar note, Salisbury says Bowa could rejoin the coaching staff.

MG: wait, you think the part where the Phillies kicking in $30M is why that trade is a pipedream? Really?

If Sandberg doesn't work out, you could try Bobby Valentine. I hear he's still available...

So, if Bowa comes back, and they retain Samuel on the coaching staff, they'll have both pieces they traded for Ivan DeJesus and, the guy whose presence in their system was the reason they considered Sandberg expendable. Maybe Pittsburgh will send them Ivan De Jesus Jr. so they can have almost a complete set.

They are trying to get younger, after all.

Hugh, LOL!

Lorecore - On that particular trade, yeah. Go find a MLB trade where a team to eating that kind of money ($30M).

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