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Thursday, September 26, 2013

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I think there were also 11 no-decisions thrown in there for good measure. What a strange year.

Amaro has succeeded in crafting a roster eerily similar to what Minaya did. Phils won't have to deal with the financial problems the Wilpons had but it isn't hard to see them entering a period of irrelevance again. Likely already there.

In response to Iceman's post re: Ruf and Myers's age difference in the last thread:

Ruf cannot be compared to Myers as a prospect, because the latter is a genuine one. If given the choice between the two, you take Myers in a heartbeat and never look back. My point is that Myers was the closest thing baseball had to a can't miss rookie hitter: He was expected to come up and hit up a storm. Which he's done. And Darin Ruf's done better. It might well be the high-water mark of all that Darin Ruf will ever be as a professional baseball player: He might well regress into the platoon bat pumpkin that scouts have had him pegged as from the beginning. But it's still one heck of an accomplishment in terms of player development, in a season where there's been precious little to celebrate in that department.

If you object to comparing him to Wil Myers, feel free to substitute in your own measuring stick. The point is the man's had a hell of a year for a guy who two years ago was 24 years-old in Clearwater and not too terribly far removed from being organizational filler.

Jody McDonald

Harping on Ruf and saying Asche has been better because of Ruf's low average, Ks, and low number of RBIs.

Did he did Ruben Amaro's 'PRODUCTION - Valuation of Baseball Players' course?

Who seriously evaluates the offensive contributions of player largely based upon on their AVG and RBIs?

LUCKY THEY DIDNT BLOW HAMELS ARM OUT
WHAT CRACK MANAGEMENT THEY WOULDNT MIND TAKING THE INSURANCE MONEY IF HAMELS OR LEE GET HURT
SPEND BIG MONEY AND LOAD UP NEXT YEAR

we'll get to see the new howard in the dugout for final series. should be footage of him in the pregame workout. i'm anxious to see how much weight he has lost. he was 280 when he first came up and was hitting dingers at a ruthian rate. over the years he's come down to 260. at 240 he would still weigh 20 lbs more than ruf.

Juums - We should be happy with Ruf's bat this season, but it is hyperbole to say that he out-performed Myers. While it is true that Ruf's unadjusted offensive numbers are marginally better, if you adjust for league and add in base-running and defense, Myers' fWAR is 2.1 to Ruf's .7. If you equalize PAs and playing time and extrapolate those numbers over a full season, Myers' edge in fWAR is about 2.4.

Hamels has had a pretty good season, one that neither diminishes nor enhances his standing as one of baseball's top pitchers. 200+innings, 200+ Ks, and a K/BB of 4+. His WHIP was a career norm, and he had the second best HR/9 of his career (.86). He also had the second worst ERA of his career, buy 3.60 isn't bad considering how he pitched in the first two games of the season.

Hamels did not get to career win no. 100 on Wednesday, he's a good bet to get to career win no. 200 somewhere down the road and a place on the Phillies' Wall of Fame. He is and always will be thought of as an excellent pitcher.

I always thought that Hamels would end up with one or two CYs on his resume, but I am beginning to have doubts since Kershaw is going strong and young turks like Harvey and Fernandez are arriving on the scene.

I think Cole Hamels still wins a Cy Young or two before all is said and done. He is still very young and the fans tend to forget that because he has always been with this team and thus, is taken for granted by the fans and the FO. Kershaw, Harvey, Fernanadez may all win CYs as well but they will have "off" years too and not breeze through every season. It just doesn't happen that way. I honestly do think that Cole Hamels will be traded in the not so distant future and those CY Youngs will be with another team.

"I'm just curious, at this point, what has been expected of him that he hasn't done to so as to be denied regular playing time next year."


Juums, to respond to your post from the previous thread, I'm starting to think that r00b was/is one of the professional talent evaluators within the Phillies organization that took the position - internally - that Ruf was not a prospect and would never make it at the MLB level.

Thus, r00b (and probably other members of the FOols) have serious egg on their faces, because in org meeting with their bosses (Montgomery, Giles, ownership), they were asked about Ruf and said he'd be a bust.

Now, just like Lucy, they have some 'slpainin' to do, and, to the ownership group, they look like they don't know what they are doing....


which would be accurate.

Still in 12th for the reverse standings. They're running out of time to get a protected pick...

NEPP - I think they're tied for ninth, with an outside shot at the seventh slot.

Not only does Chris Davis have 52 HRs, but he also has 95 XBHs. With four games left, he has an outside shot at 100 XBHs, which is quite rare even though Todd Helton has done it twice.

We're currently in the 12th spot...11th worst record but 12th draft pick due to Toronto's compensation pick from not signing their top guy this year. We're tied record-wise with Toronto and NY Mets but they had worse records last year so they get a higher slot.

We're a half game back of Colorado for the 8th spot but they also had a worse record than us in 2012 so we'd have to have a worse record than them to get that 8th pick. The 7th pick is still mathematically possible but everything would have to break right (we get swept, other teams win out)

Ruf has impressed with the bat, but all of his other shortcomings make an impressive bat required just to be an average stater.

Same thing as Howard to a larger extent.

Same thing with DOM to a little lesser extent.

And it doesn't stop there. Seems like every single player we have for 2014 constantly has to over perform in one area to subsidize their terribleness elsewhere - to the point where even when they're playing great, their final value is pretty mediocre.

Its almost as if 2014 will likely be even worse than 2013 was and how 2013 was worse than 2012.

Anyone seeing a pattern here?

NEPP - You are not looking at the latest standings.
7. Brewers: 71-87
8. Rockies: 72-87
9. Phils and Jays: 72-86
11. Giants and Mets: 73-85
13. Padres: 74-84

nepp: don't worry, if the CSNPhilly lackeys have taught me anything, its that we should build around the same players from last year while trading prospects away for veterans to make another run at it is the way to reverse that trend.

I was just using MLBTradeRumors...I assumed it had been updated.

So 10th pick right now then...perfect.

I wonder if TTI can win his bet with Jack on a technicality...since the Phillies ARE 4th place instead of being close to it.

Derekcarstairs:
In the previous thread I never claimed that Ruf was having a better overall year than Myers: It's obvious Myers is the better overall player, precisely because he's got more to this game than a great bat. The point of invoking him at all was to provide a benchmark to measure Ruf's slash-line against, as Myers was widely considered the best hitting prospect in baseball coming into this season.

If you're dead-set against the use of Myers because it seems to vaguely imply Ruf's as good as or bettern than Myers, another interesting comparable is Brandon Moss, the great masher who got away. Moss has been good for a .256/.339/.514 (493 PA), with a .367 wOBA and 136 wRC+; which just reinforces the point that Ruf can straight-up hit. Looking beyond mere slash-line at the whole picture of Moss's 2013, his 1.8 fWAR is what you hope Ruf's upside to be over a full season, as their lines are comparable and Moss has been a liability defensively this season of the sort you expect from Ruf (-12.4 UZR/150 in ~800 IP at 1B and -14.0 UZR/150 in ~250 IP in RF+LF). Though over a full season there's a question as to how much of a liability Ruf will be on the basepaths. (There's no question Ruf will have a negative BsR: Only whether his -2.9 BsR thus far this season is aberrant for the number of PAs he's had or if he can be relied upon for roughly -1 BsR/100 PA.)

"I wonder if TTI can win his bet with Jack on a technicality...since the Phillies ARE 4th place instead of being close to it."

It brings to mind a girl I knew a long time ago who once asked if Europe is anywhere near Italy.

I don't need a technicality. Jack won that one.

I got to say though- obviously opening myself up to ridicule- I don't think this means we are necessarily bad in 2014 automatically. I think Amaro has a lot of work to do in order to make us better and I'm not sure how that will work out for us.

"Its almost as if 2014 will likely be even worse than 2013 was and how 2013 was worse than 2012."

Maybe but its way too early to predict that given what occurs this offseason.

Does anyone believe this club is competent enough to finish within the bottom 10? They'll blow it on the last day and be proud of themselves.

Juums - I think your main point is that Ruf has had a good year with the bat, something I agree with. I'd like to see him get more playing time in 2014. Comparing Ruf with Myers or Moss is just a distraction from your main point and causes people like me to bring up other aspects of the game where Ruf doesn't shine.

I follow the Phils on Gameday these days because they're not sufficiently interesting to justify the trouble of clicking on the MLB.tv button. I do check on Beerleaguer, though, and I saw the comments about Bucknor blowing some call on Rollins (I still haven't seen the actual play). But I didn't see all that much chatter about the truly shocking call where Cesar Jimenez was credited with tagging the runner out even though the tag (if there was one) was with his bare hand & the ball was still in his gloved hand. I'm finding it hard to believe that the call on Rollins could have been any worse than that. Bucknor is a real stain on MLB.

b_a_p: Bucknor was the ump at 1B. I believe Dale Scott blew the call at 2B. Both were egregious misses on the part of the umps involved, but I believe there wasn't as much talk about the Jimenez play as there might usually have been because it wound up balancing out the Rollins play.

... its way too early to predict that given what occurs this offseason.

Are Monty & r00b still in charge? If so, it's not too early to predict anything.

I think the Phils will be a worse team in 2014 than they are this year.

If things break right, though, I can see the path to the playoffs - it's pitching. First, they would have to keep Lee. Second, the new guy from Cuba would have to make a solid contribution to the rotation. Third, the Phils would have to go against past practice, win the rights to Tanaka, sign him, and he would have to pitch like Darvish. Fourth, they need to sign the best of Josh Johnson, Ubaldo, Kazmir, etc. and that guy would have to pitch like a solid three or better. If these things were to happen, the Phils could return to the playoffs in 2014.

The foregoing paragraph is a pipe dream. It won't happen, and the Phils won't contend for a while. That is why I want the team to re-visit the possibility of trading Lee if they can one or more top prospects. Lee is a top guy now, but he won't be when the team is ready to become competitive again. I enjoy watching Lee pitch more than Doc, more than Hamels. The man has style. It's just wasted on the Phillies in their current form.

Utley-Ruf-Brown-Howard could all have over .800 OPS next year. Unfortunately, only one of those is average or higher in defense or baserunning, so not sure how good that collective is with those numbers.

"Josh Johnson, Ubaldo, Kazmir" - I think I'd rather keep KK.

I'm sure he wouldn't do it and I get it he has control issues but I wonder if Ubaldo with that arm would play well out of the pen.

I think they can compete in 2014 as well. Alfredo is definitely a big part of it.

80 pitchers in 2013 pitched enough innings to qualify for the ERA title(162IP). In my mind, he'll need to be among the top half of qualified pitchers in ERA+ to allow the Phillies any chance of having a rotation strong enough to carry the rest of their team.

This year, the 40th best ERA+ for qualified pitchers in the MLB was 113. If Alfredo can log over 160IP at a 113 ERA+, then this team has a chance. That's a pretty steep requirement, as Gio Gonzalez and Homer Bailey were 39th and 40th with a 113 ERA+ this year.

I think they could compete in 2014 also, but I think it would take more than MAG being an above average pitcher. I think it would require 2 above average starters, plus a competent 5th one, to go with Lee & Hamels. And, of course, it would require us to finally find a few good relievers.

This offense stinks &, since the pieces are largely fixed for 2014, it's destined to stink again. The pitching would have to be really good & really deep to lift this team to contender status. It isn't likely to happen.

It would likely take one more #3-esque starter (possibly Kendrick, if they re-sign him for sub-arb money and he performs as he had been in the 2nd half of 2012/first half 2013), Adams to come back healthy, Antonio to come back at least above average, one other BP arm to at least post a 3.25 ERA over 50+, and then one more guy to post at least a 3.5-3.75.

Offense is what it is. It could be average-ish, with spurts above (or even well above) average, but overall probably won't exceed average for an extended period.

I predict Mike Adams will never throw another regular season mlb pitch again.

Good luck with that, Robinson.

The Marlins just signed Greg Dobbs to a 1 year, $1.7 million deal for 2014.

Okay then.

I know it's a Phillies blog so we aren't all necessarily plugged in or care about other teams but- Ubaldo Jimenez has actually been really good the second half of this year. Cut down on his walks while keeping the same ratio essentially of strikeouts. Has an ERA of 1.86 in the second half through 12 starts.

The only places for upgrade in the offense seem to be getting a thumper for the corner outfield spot. I have advocated Hart a lot and I think a move like that has a domino effect in creating a better roster.

The issue is going to be pitching again though.

TTI - But doesn't Jimenez strike you as the classic case of a guy who is a solid pitcher who will get an absurd contract (AAV of $16-$18M) that he doesn't justify.

I would prefer Jimenez though over Garza. Interesting to see how those what those 2 guys get paid.

The Marlins just signed Greg Dobbs to a 1 year, $1.7 million deal for 2014.

He's Versatile™

Raj said Rhyno is 50-50 in picking his own staff. Tells you all you need to know about this organization.

"I predict Mike Adams will never throw another regular season mlb pitch again."

More likely, it will play out like the last year of Tom Gordon & Jose Contreras's contracts. He'll pitch here & there, be totally ineffective, go on the DL, come back, maybe have one brief period where he looks somewhat like his old self, and then suffer a season-ending injury.

MG: I wasn't advocating to sign Jimenez. Just saying he has been good of late.

As a general rule I would prefer we not dump a ton of money at another pitcher this coming year.

TTI - The funny thing is that they actually kind of need to because of the lack of internal options.

If might be a different story if say Morgan/Biddle both were ready and one of them would be poised to win a 4/5 spot out of ST. Roll the dice the MAG, Morgan/Biddle, and a Pettibone or veteran FA starter.

I would be really surprised if the Phils don't sign a veteran starter in the $6-8M range. Hard to read between the lines but I would venture that KK is brought back. Dubee going might help a bit but KK's 2nd half here really hurt him even if he was pitched hurt. Maybe he comes back if the Phils can get him for a very moderate price via FA standards ($4-5M base with incentive upside).

r00b appears determined to drag Halladay's corpse back here for another go-around. No one should reject the possibility of it happening. Roy's deal would undoubtedly be incentive laden, but I seriously doubt the guaranteed dollars would be league minimum, either.

Speaking of Zombie Doc, I found the following numbers interesting:

Halladay ('10-'13) - 103 GS, 2854 BF, 55-29 (.655), 3.25 ERA, 5 CGSO, 702.2 IP, 64 HR, 137 BB, 622 K, 25 HBP, 2 BK, 13 WP, 122 ERA+, 1.119 WHIP, 8.3 H/9, 0.8 HR/9, 1.8 BB/9, 8.0 K/9, 4.54 K/BB

vs.

Halladay ('07-'09) - 96 GS, 2877 BF, 53-28 (.654), 3.08 ERA, 7 CGSO, 710.1 IP, 55 HR, 122 BB, 553 K, 20 HBP, 0 BK, 10 WP, 142 ERA+, 1.137 WHIP, 8.7 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 1.5 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, 4.53 K/BB

-In MG world, KK would be a cy young candidate, but Rich Dubee is holding him back.

-Do GMs normally hire assistant coaches as well? It's one thing to have the last say in a hire "We don't want X", but another to force guys on Ryno. Of course, I can't imagine it's being "forced" on Ryno, but still. I can see the FO wanting to keep some old Phillie from yesteryear on staff just b/c they think some fans like that or something.

How do Philadelphia sports fans maintain such a terrible reputation when our death toll is a fraction of that of Dodgers & Giants fans?

Multiple outlets reporting Bud Selig will announce that he's set to retire after the '14 season.

I'll believe it when it happens ... The actual retirement, that is, not the announcement.

BB: Have you ever met a Juan Samuel fan? We both know the FO is insular, & clueless. I now fully expect Dubee & the aforementioned coaching black hole to return in '14.

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