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Thursday, September 12, 2013

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We really don't have any outfielders better than Galvis?

Jbird: Well, Julsan Kamara won't report until after he finishes school next Spring, so...

jbird, it's a lost season, and they're giving Hernandez and Galvis a chance to learn positions they haven't played before this year. I can't fault Sandberg for that - for helping guys become more Versatile™.

Besides, if the alternative is Mayberry, while it's a SSS, here are their respective 2013 splits vs. RHP:

Freddy: .227 .292 .394

RFD: .227 .291 .376

It's amazing, isn't it, that Little Freddy is outslugging Big John vs. RHP this season?

AWH: Considering that Galvis is a switch-hitter, it's not that surprising...

buster, true, but still...

BTW, the Phils have their work cut out for them tonight. this is from mlb.com:

"Since rejoining the rotation July 23, Ross has a 2.16 ERA with opponents hitting just .189, ranking 10th and fourth-best in the Majors, respectively, over that stretch."


http://mlb.mlb.com/mlb/gameday/index.jsp?gid=2013_09_12_sdnmlb_phimlb_1


How many 'LGs' (Looking Good) does Halladay have this year so far? 0? 1?

Juan Samuel's role as the OF coach tells you volumes about what this team thinks of infielders playing the OF.

Looks like Ross has a 3.26 ERA away (.638 OPS) from PetCo (.584 OPS), at least, and he's much better against righties (.584 OPS) than lefties (.687 OPS), but pretty darn solid against both. His Ks go way down against LHB though.

Weirdly, he's faced almost as many RHB as LHB, with only 9 more PAs against righties. That's even stranger considering he was in the BP for a while.

The thing to watch with Halladay tonight is his changeup. He had trouble with it early in his last start, but last several innings it was devastating. It is a pitch that he'll need now that his fastball is gone. Or, if not gone, on vacation.

Make that .547 for Ross vs. RHB.

Cautiously optimistic that tonight may not be as uncomfortable to watch...

That said, can't love the fact that in light of all he's already having to battle through, that Doc is recovering from a cold on top of it. At any rate, a little snot on the ball never hurt anyone.

How many 'LGs' (Looking Good) does Halladay have this year so far? 0? 1?
-
I believe its 2. His 200th win vs. Miami, and the 7 inning CG vs. St. Louis.

WP: Saves him from grabbing the jalapeno out of his locker.

"If we have an outfield of Ruf, Revere and Brown, or Brown, Revere and Ruf, is it good enough?" general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said yesterday, while looking out toward the outfield spots at Citizens Bank Park. "Is it good enough defensively? I don't know that. It can be. That's an option for us, I guess. But we're going to try to do as well as we can, do as much as we can."

So will the Phillies be shopping for an outfielder again?

"Do we have to? I don't know that," Amaro said. "But I think it's something we'll look to try to do."

Upon taking over as manager last month, Sandberg somewhat surprisingly offered centerfield as a spot the Phillies needed to find stability in going forward.

Sounds like r00b still has the hots for Stanton and that Ryno's not sold on Revere in center. After only 2 months in CF, Hernandez already reads the ball off the bat bettr and runs better routes than little Ben and matches his arm strength.

Besides Revere, who else goes in a Stanton deal? Would Ruf and Pettibone get it done or would r00b throw in Brown instead of Ruf if that's what it takes?

To be fair to Ryne (and Revere), Sandberg never got to manage Revere - only 3B coach him. I could also imagine that Sandberg things our depth options at CF are pretty slim pickin's.

I tend to agree.

Two OFs:

Player A: .253/.370/.485 with 20 HRs in 427 PAs

Player B: .251/.352/.497 with 13 HRs in 227 PAs

Granted Player A is having a down year and likely is well-positioned to rebound a stronger year but I did think it was interesting comparing the 2 right now.

Player A: Stanton
Player B: Ruf

mm and buster, if Hernandez really IS a better defensive CF than Revere, and Cesar switch hits, and neither has hugely pronounced splits against pitchers, and their MiL BB rates are pretty similar (H 7.6% to R 6.9%), but Revere hits for higher average and is a better SB threat, then to whom do you give the job?

MG, my concern about Stanton is this:

Despite being young, and thus (according to BL Conventional Wisdom) not much of an injury risk, he's only playedmore than 123 games once.

Now, in fairness, a review of his MiL track record suggests he played 153 games in 2010 (53 in the minors), but it seems that once he played more than 130 games in a season a couple of years in a row he started to break down.

Aberration the last two seasons, or a trend?

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 6s
Jimmy Rollins and his green light on the basepaths: still a pretty good base stealer http://delonline.us/15nZq2S

mm, if the Phils could trade for Stanton, it would probably take Brown in the deal to get it done.

The Phils would then have Stanton RF and Ruf LF in the corners, and that might not be too bad considering the other LHH in the lineup:

Revere L
Utley L
Howard L
Asche L
Chooch R
Stanton R
Ruf R
Rollins S

Bench:

Galvis S
Frandsen R
Hernandez? S
Reserve OF RHB or LHB?
Bench Catcher

If Rube would be dumb enough to trade Revere and Brown (and more) for Stanton, it would be worthy of a season-long picketing at CBP. It's the single dumbest suggestion ever made on this site.

Tough question on Revere and Cesar, awh. Ryno doesn't seem enamored of Revere but it's too soon to say Cesar is the answer. Better defensively but with a rag arm of his own. Wouldn't be surprised to see r00b move Revere or Cesar in some package to try to upgrade the OF. Successfully? Don't bet the ranch.

AWH: Personally, I don't think that Cesar is as good a CF as Revere. He just hasn't had the experience to be, and that's no knock on him.

Revere does have non-noticeable split differentials for his career (and every year before this one), but this year he's got a pretty hefty difference. Do we expect that going forward? Tough to say, what with the age curve and whatnot.

Cesar actually hasn't had enough PAs vs. RHP for me to judge him that way either. In the minors, he had over 1000 vs. lefties, but only 420-ish against RHP. He, too, had a pretty significant L/R split at AAA this year (.857 vs. .752 according to MiL Central).

That said, I'd probably go Revere. The speed's important even if he's not leading off. You can probably make room for both of them most nights, but if you have to choose one or the other, I think you probably have to go with Revere until Cesar proves you don't (or Revere drops the ball).

Why would you ever trade a guy who hits .270 with 30 jacks and a another guy who hits .290 for another guy?

Iceman, I don't advocate Revere AND Brown for Stanton.

Take a look at my lineup above. it includes Revere.

My point is that I don't think the Marlins will trade Stanton to the Phillies for anyone LESS than Brown and a package of other players. I wouldn't if I were the Marlins. They would want cost-controlled near-MLB or MLB players in return, and Brown will be controllable a little longer and not likely to cast as much even in his arb years.

I also don't think the Marlins will ever trade Stanton to a division rival.

But I would never include BOTH Revere and Brown for Stanton.

If they could add a better OFer, and have Revere on the bench, that's not a bad thing. I like the way Ryne thinks-OF upgrade/Howard platoon.

. Not thinking Cesar is the guy.

Look at it this way:

Would the Marlins trade Stanton to the Phillies WITHOUT Brown included, and then have to face a potential OF the next several years that included BOTH Brown and Stanton?

I wouldn't want to face that prospect if I'm the fish, and that's why I'd never trade Stanton to the Phils unless it included Brown.

I really don't think the Marlins care too much what any other team has. They might try to use the "intra-division rival" bit as a negotiating tactic to drive up the price, but they're just so bad right now that they need to improve literally every way they can.

They're not likely to be competing for the division for at least another 2-3 years anyway, so they can afford to not care.

"it's a lost season, and they're giving Hernandez and Galvis a chance to learn positions they haven't played before this year."

Giving Cesar a chance to learn CF makes good sense. He isn't going to be starting at 2nd anytime soon & we need a backup CF in a bad way.

On the other hand, it's almost unimaginable that there could ever be a scenario in which we don't have a better starting option in LF than Freddy Galvis. His ability to play a position where there would never be any reason to play him is another shining example of the Phillies' bizarre celebration of versatility solely for the sake of versatility.

Hey, you have to make any excuse you can to get a bat like Galvis' into the lineup. If this were the AL, he'd be the DH.

"Besides Revere, who else goes in a Stanton deal? Would Ruf and Pettibone get it done...?"

Without question.

I don't think Stanton's ever coming to Philly unless someone convinces Ruben to include Martinez.

Revere, Ruf and Pettibone would get you Stanton? I sure hope I'm missing some sarcasm there.

I don't want Stanton. If all it took was money, fine. But the guy is an awful defender and can't seem to stay on the field. When he's healthy, he's a force. But when exactly does that occur? Is see future DH all over him.

bap, agree with your post about Galvis in LF. My post above did not advocate it, but merely try to make some "sense" of it.

I do love the way we have a 1B, 2B and SS in the OF tonight.

Awh:
With regard to Stanton's being dinged up, I've made that point before too. I can't hedge a guess one way or the other on whether it's a trend or an aberration but, given the amount of talent that's going to have to be parted with to get Stanton, it strikes me as something that's a deal-breaker if you're paying the market rate for Stanton.

That rate is your top positional prospect, top pitching prospect, and an MLB-ready corner outfielder. Depending upon the quality of the two prospects, another Top 10 might be required. So you'd be looking at Biddle (or Morgan), Franco, and Ruf plus a high-upside throw-in like Severino Gonzalez or Roman Quinn due to pitching corps coming off a lackluster year. For what it's worth, I think Ruf makes more sense for the Marlins than Brown does, as Ruf provides the same type of RHB power that Stanton does and will be 30 when he stops making the league minimum, allowing him to be dumped without ceremony if the Marlins think he'd be too expense in arbitration.

Not that I am in any way advocating trading for Stanton. I'd be furious if the Phils did, because it would further deplete an already lackluster farm system when the focus needs to be on filling it with new talent.

Juums, good post.

Juums - you couldn't get a cup of coffee for Morgan right now. He's been injured and shows no sign of being healthy yet. And it's a shoulder injury, so it's much more serious than other injuries.

Aksmith:
I knew Morgan was banged up, but I wasn't aware it was the pitching equivalent of Tommy Joseph's season. Biddle it is, then. The AAA team really did have a horrible year with regards to those who were considered bright spots coming into the season.

awh- my comment was referencing MM's moronic post basically tossing Revere in the deal as a throw-in. If you already include Brown in the deal, I think you're spinning your wheels anyway. How much tangibly better would Stanton make the Phils than Brown did this year?

Besides, it would take more than Brown. And when you talk about trading two starters for him, when the team only has a handful of replacement-level CFs in the organization, it's just shuffling deck chairs.

Partnership agreements, including limited partnership agreements, are not uniform. They are tailored to the requirements of the partners.

We need to refer to the applicable provisions of the Phillies' partnership agreement to find out how to remove Montgomery as managing partner. Maybe somebody here can borrow Bill Conlin's copy.

Iceman, I think we're pretty much in agreement.

Only mongoloid Phantards are "sold on Revere" as any sort of outfielder.

Anyone who has watched as much as one season of MLB understands that Revere is nothing but a pinch runner. A slower version of the Reds Billy Hamilton.

Stanton is a SCAMMIES ruse to distract from the real available answer Shin-Soo Choo.

Texas, Seattle, Boston and San Diego in that order are the likely destinations for Stanton when he is dealt.

Rain delays are the worst, aren't they? Something to be said for domes at times like this, even if they are an affront to the way baseball should be played.

While the rain delays been on-going, I've been trying to do some research on Yoshio Itoi. A LHB with a .309/.389/.459 career slash line over six years in NPB, he boasts an 11% career walk rate and 16.8% strikeout rate. He can play all three OF positions, though he's regarded as a corner OF who's a plus defender. (I haven't been able to find anything, one way or the other, with regard to his CF defense.) He is usually comped with Norichika Aoki of the Brewers, being described as the better player, with slightly inferior contact skills but better raw power and speed. As Aoki has put up a .288/.353/.396 line in almost 1200 MLB PAs, something like .270/.360/.440 is the type that could be hoped for from Itoi.

Of course, Itoi's got his worts, starting with the fact that he's a pull-happy LHB who's going to be entering the decline phase of his career. Not that being pull-happy is bad at Citizens Bank Park; rather, it's the approach that's problematic. And as Itoi would be 32 by time he played in the States, the ship's probably sailed on disabusing him of that mentality. I've also read of concerns that he's a passive hitter, who shows the same tendency as Darin Ruf to take mashable strikes as a side effect of their patience.

All of that said, Itoi profiles as a poor man's Shin-Soo Choo, with comparable skill-sets and slash lines. Choo's still the better player, having accrued the slash line against better opponents, but with a $15MM anticipated posting fee and 3yr/$15-20MM contract, Itoi's going to cost a lot less in dollars and years than Choo, too. Itoi seems like an ideal fit for a club like the Phils, who desperately need on-base skills and still can't cope with losing a draft pick to a QO.

Which is why, despite it having been a certainly earlier this year that Itoi would post, there's now a question whether he'll post this year, if he ever does.

In Fernandez and Stanton, the Marlins have two cost-controlled stars. They also have a decent farm system and the second position in next year's draft.

I would rather have the Marlins' players than the Phillies'.

I see Halladay is on his game again.

Feels like it's going to be a long night...

That...actually ended way, way better than the Venable AB suggested it would. The Halladay who is capable of getting lots of swings and misses with his secondary stuff appears to have shown up again.

Free_AEC:
Only mongoloid Phantards are "sold on Revere" as any sort of outfielder.

Nice piece of analysis -- why Revere is no more than a throw-in if r00b tries to deal for Stanton.

You know, for a bunch of AAA players and washed-up thirty-somethings, Sandberg's Phils continue to show they've got a li'l bit of moxy and bite.

I think it is all Sandberg. He didn't win minor league manager of the year with the iron pigs for nothing.

That was an incredibly Unproductive™ PA from Halladay. He should know that it's better to go down swinging like a fool than to take the walk! Just ask Frandsen and Galvis.

P.S.: Thanks for not doing anything to get yourself tendered there, Frandsen.

Vick should have come out for Bark at the Park the other night.

Best AB of Doc's season so far.

Nice first inning for Cesar. 2 for 2, run, 2 rbi.

Quallity AB by Doc and quality send by Sammy -- trying to tire out Doc before he can cough up the lead...

Yeah, Ruiz decided to stop playing like garbage when Manuel got canned. Makes sense.

Pizza pizza!

Seriously, though: Has Ben Revere ever hit a ball that far in the air? Assuming Hernandez's CF defense is otherwise passable, if you're going to have a rag-armed CF, methinks it'd be better to have the one who has an iota of gap power.

Looks like the Phils have reversed the tables tonight. Good to see.

Since they're experimenting with Hernandez in CF, they might as well try him in the corner OF spots too. If he can play CF, he can presumably play the corners. But it's possible we might need him there some day & you wouldn't want him playing LF for the first time ever in a game that actually mattered.

Bingo. Cesar making the case for Revere as a throw-in.

Itoi profiles as a poor man's Shin-Soo Choo

The Phillies are rich not poor and they don't need the draft pick the way they need Shin-Soo Choo. If the Phillies want the pick then TANK their games and get it.


The Phillies need to outspend every other team this winter and get the four players they need, Choo, McCann, Tanaka, Garza and resign Ruiz.

This whole "Dump Revere, make Cesar Hernandez our CF of the future" is sort of stunning to me, I have to be honest.

Two months ago, Ben Revere was hitting .305 and was our 25-year old CF of the future. Cesar Hernandez was having a surprisingly good season as a 2B in Lehigh Valley.

What exactly did I miss?

BAP:
Hernandez is being experiment with in CF because he's surprisingly not terrible there. Rather raw, of course, but it's not exactly the horror you expect when a 2B is asked to start playing CF on a lark. If Hernandez can become defensibly passable CF, that increases the odds he'll be on the Opening Day 2014 roster, because a utility infielder who can be the backup CF opens up lots of interesting options for bench construction. (The most obvious one being that the traditional 4th OF is redundant, and both Mayberry and Bernadina become expendable.)

And if he can actually become an average defender, well, given the CF options on this club and open market...who knows?

"Cesar making the case for Revere as a throw-in."

I think the case he's making is for Mayberry as a throw-in. Revere is a lot more than a throw-in.

Jack- Amaro acquired Revere. That's all you need to know. He's been irrationally hated since day 1 by the mouth-breathers.

You couldn't get a box of balls and 3 fungo bats for AAAberry

It's too bad none of these young guys - Cesar, Ruf, Asche, Galvis - are real prospects, because they're pretty fun to watch.

Juums: Yeah, I'm all for the experiment. Cesar's value as a utility infielder is limited because 2nd base is the only position he can play & we've already got a 2nd baseman for the next 3 years. But if he can play a passable CF, he'd be the in-house upgrade over Mayberry that awh has been pestering everyone to come up with for the last 3 months.

My only point was: it wouldn't be a bad idea to also give Cesar a few games in LF and/or RF. One can imagine a scenario in which Revere is healthy but one of our corner outfielders is injured. It would be nice to have Cesar as an option when that scenario occurs.

Jack:
As someone who's taking pleasure in the Hernandez-in-CF experiment, I do agree with you. Revere has value as an everyday CF and it's doubtful that Hernandez can stick as a backup CF, let alone be the CF of the future. It's still fun to watch and speculate on the what-ifs that'd arise if the experiment does go better than anyone anticipates.

that breaking pitch seems to be ruf's biggest hole.

Mayberry is irreplaceable.

BAP:
I assume Hernandez could be trotted out there at 1B, as...well, everybody can. And that, if he was to be the utility guy, they'd make it a winter project to teach him 3B. But fair enough on the corner OF. I'd taken you to be poking fun at the ridiculousness of Galvis in LF and wanting to get Cesar in on the act. Because of the Versatility™ it affords, and all that. (Even though Hernandez-as-a-super-sub would genuinely versatile.)

Mayberry is part of the Core.

Iceman - it's been said before, but your fascination with Ben Revere is... creepy? I've relinquished my hope that Mayberry will be anything more than a 5th outfielder; yet he has 10 HRs. I've moved on and taken up praying for insanely lucky draft picks.

BTW, exactly what might constitute a "mouth breather"? Between that and your off the shelf rip on WIP callers, I'm wondering if you might moonlight for the NSA. Howd'ja get your security clearance? C'mon, it's just us fellers, you can tell us!

I like all of these young guys (Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, Asche). I would love to see what they'd look like playing their real positions.

Juums: No, it wasn't a parody of the Galvis in LF experiment. It was sincere. The difference between Cesar & Galvis is that Cesar has some offensive skills. If Dom or Ruf went down, you might actually WANT Cesar in LF because he's the best available bat. On the other hand, I can't imagine that Galvis will ever be the best available bat for LF. There will always be a corner outfielder in the minors who is better.

When Doc first came over he wasn't nearly this putrid at the plate.

Who is this guy Patience, he has two rbis?

"I like all of these young guys (Galvis, Hernandez, Ruf, Asche). I would love to see what they'd look like playing their real positions."

Not going to happen. We're committed to a geriatric infield for the foreseeable future.

Just as a thought experiment, what would next year's bench look like if you dispense with the traditional 4th OF? Assuming the Phils sign another corner OF (take your pick in your mind's eye of who), you'd be looking at:
--Cesar Hernandez [Back-up CF; second back-up corner OF; pinch runner]
--Freddy Galvis [Back-up SS; utility infielder; universal defensive caddy; pinch runner(?)]
--Darin Ruf [Howard platoonmate; interleague DH; first back-up corner OF; RHB bench bat]
--??? [LHB bench bat; other needs to be filled(?)]
--Backup C

For what it's going to cost, that's not bad at all. The only FA acquisition would need to be the LHB bench bat, who in my mind's eye I keep envisioning Jason Kubel. If you don't pick-up another starting corner OF, then slot Ruf in the OF and add in another FA RHB bench bat, with either the LHB or RHB bench bat also be the first corner OF back-up. (At which point, you might as well just tender Mayberry to be the RHB bench bat.)

Its good to see the Phillies changing their approach tonight and taking a bunch of walks.

I'm sure its that and not that these Pads pitchers suck.

What exactly did I miss?

The first six weeks of the season when Revere buried the Phillies with a .400 OPS and his appalling fielding.

I have never seen a CF as bad as Ben Revere.

I started watching baseball religiously as a child when the Phillies broadcast team was Harry, Ritchie and By Saam.

Alas, this is the new Halladay: An effective junkballer when he can get the calls or willing favors by hitters chasing, but if they can resist, he lacks the command to throw strikes when he needs to.

Doc looks really good...can we please bring him back next year?

Words I couldn't have imagined a few years ago: I hope we bring back KK, not his mentor Doc.

there was no point in throwing to first, except as an exclamation point on a lost season.

As a fan, I'm still hopeful that Doc will be able to transition into being a junkballer: His secondary stuff certainly flashed enough promise tonight to do that. But even junkballers have to be able to throw strikes. If he can't muster the ability to throw strikes when necessary, he's done, as his stuff isn't good enough to fool hitters the majority of the time.

Free AEC must be Choo'c agent.

Choo's agent.

Words I couldn't have imagined a few years ago: I hope we bring back KK, not his mentor Doc.

If the Phillies had a clue they wouldn't bring back either one of 'em.

No, if Free AEC were Choo's agent, he'd be dumping on Garza, McCann, and every other potential rival for the scarce resources that the wants directed into a fat contract to his client. As every indication is that the Phils' financial situation has eroded this year and that there's a question whether there will be any big FA acquisition by the Phils.

No, he's just a guy who thinks that the best way for the Phils to compete is to try and be the NL's version of the Yankees. Which is certainly an option, though there're better ways to run a franchise.

And for something completely different: Hasn't Hernandez done successfully tonight what Ben Revere was supposed to do? It's nice to see that kind of small ball hitting.

Is anyone still in the boat of bringing Halladay back? I haven't seen a single person claim he should be back. Not one person. I don't think it needs to be reiterated anymore.

Shin Soo Choo's agent is Scott Boras.

That does put things in a different light, Phillibuster. As Boras wants every team to spend like the Yankees...

cut_fastball: the bizarre hatred of Revere- championed by people like you, GTown, and now someone who I'm assuming is Shin Soo Choo's mother- is the only thing that's strange. Your constant refrain of criticism, centered around his career HR total, is not an argument grounded in sanity. I speak for all reasonable people who see Revere for what he is: a positive contributing major league baseball player that is young and cheap.

It's not a surprise that people here see 50 ABs from a guy that has played CF for a month and assume the guy is a star. Most of the dumb Revere comments are spawned from his first horrible month with the team. The Moronocracy, as clout has correctly pointed out numerous times, has the attention span of a gnat.

Next year, Hernandez will struggle in April and people here will be calling for his outright release.

To be fair to the Yankees, I think [insert LA team of your choice] fits that description better, now.

If it comes down to Doc or KK, put Mini in the Doc camp. Post-injury, Doc is having understandable trouble repeating his delivery and, thus, the control problem pops up. Even with lower velocity, though, Doc's stuff is still good enough to miss bats -- something KK has never been accused of.

With KK, what you've seen for years and years is what you get. Doc may still have some upside if he can iron out his mechanics after the injury. As G-Town threw out, the smart move is probably punting both but if one of the two is a keeper, Mini's money is on Doc.

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