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Thursday, September 05, 2013

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ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!!

So what are the odds Halladay is a phillies next year? I would think, not good.

For the Phillies to have real offense once again, the following young players have to develop into first rate major leaguers:

Brown, Ruf, Asche, Franco, Biddle, Revere, Dugan, and Hernandez.

If that doesn't happen, I don't see a plan

I'm curious as to how Biddle's development will fuel the offense. Is the plan for him to rake once every five days in the nine hole? Or to pinch hit for the pitcher and then fool everyone by taking the hill himself?

Rob: No worries about Biddle's bat, his .974 OPS as a 21yr old in AA should translate well to the bigs.

someone on last thread was arguing why people shouldn't jump the gun on wanting Doc gone, and cited that "its only been 3 starts since rehab".

Well if you think 3 isn't enough to make a decision, then you are in for a rude awakening when the season ends in less than a month and Doc has a whopping 3-4 extra starts.

Which is why I say let Doc walk. Making a judgement on a handful of starts is too risky, and this team already has too many up in the air players as is. This does not mean I think Doc is washed up, this just means that the Phillies aren't in a position to be the ones giving him the chance.

Lorecore: 3 starts, or even 6 starts IS entirely to small a sample size to draw any conclusion off on Halladay.

However, I agree we should let him walk because the odds are not great and the Phillies (if they want to have any chance of competing in 2014) need to not be counting on odds that are favored against them.

If that doesn't happen, I don't see a plan

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN

Should I just list everyone under 25 in the organization (plus Darin Ruf), say they need to be good, and then pretend that's some sort of complete thought?

Every toll booth attendant on the turnpike shows up here.

I would love to see Doc stay on a 1 yr. incentive based deal.
But I think it's very likely the Phils will not want to match some other team's longer term, guaranteed offer.
Going to be an interesting off season, we need so much help and have so many dollars already committed.

Offer Doc the Lannan contract right now and I'd be happy with it. But he won't be happy with it. Don't see how offering a lot of money will help the team. He is not the missing piece that will make them a winner.

I personally would let him walk. But Rube won't want to do that. So, I'm suggesting a ceiling.

Doc and KK will package their talents and vast experience into an historic for-life contract similar to poo holeziz.

Doc and the Phils are no longer a good fit. Even if he's not "washed up," Doc wants to win a championship and he only has a few years left to do it. The Phils are not going to win a championship in the next few years, with or without Doc. So there you have it.

Doc is a homie. Where would he go? Toronto? Certainly not to Colorado or Miami.

"ARE YOU READY FOR SOME FOOTBALL?!!

Posted by: Hank Williams Jr. | Thursday, September 05, 2013 at 07:32 PM"

No.

Sorry, Hankie.

Anyway, yeah, I miss Victorino.

I've missed Shane ever since he was traded, Bake.

miami might be the perfect place for doc. they cou;d turn the air conditioner way down to 72 for his home starts.

Doc showed a lot of versatility with his pitches against the Nats.

If it comes down to Doc or Kendrick, who stays?

Vic, while not a Young, was too young for the 2013 team.

Halladay in Atlanta or even in St. Louis might work out 'okay.' LA too with the Dodgers.

On Halladay:
I agree that if he wants to win a WFC, he should try to play elsewhere his remaining few years. But to do that, He needs to show all of MLB that he can still be a solid back-of-the-rotation guy. If he pitches any worse than he has been Post-All Star break I can't see a solid contender throwing money at him. Perhaps a desperate fringe contender willing to gamble. If he signs with Philly, it will be a little sad.

It will be interesting to see what Halladay commands on the open market. He may have to settle for a one-year deal.

Odd that finger didn't mention the changeup, since 4 of his 5 Ks came on that pitch.

Clout - I had to leave after the first two innings, so I didn't get to see what apparently was a better Doc. But in the first two innings, his change was sitting up in the zone and looked very hittable. Did something change after that? Because early on it really didn't look good.

I understand they really didn't hit anything, including the change, early on, but they were pretty busy not swinging at pitches a foot outside over the first two innings.

StL would be the best spot for Halladay if they want him. They always seem to have a great staff. They will probably use him effectively. They are always part of the playoff hunt. Even if he falters he could mentor the young guys from the DL and still be part of a winner.

Rangers seem like similar team in the AL. Halladay may have more difficulty pitching in AL but they are another team built to win for the next few years.

Dodgers are a good guess for any expensive vet.

aksmith: His command was dreadful in the first 2 innings. Better afterward. They were swinging and missing at his changeup. His last 2 starts he's thrown more changeups than any prior starts this season.

I wouldn't bring Doc back after his comment about having to change his arm slot and now has to get used to it. Changing his arm slot means he's a different pitcher no matter how you look at it. Whatever happened to the line we heard where his doctors said they could take his shoulder back to where it was 2-3 years ago? If that were true why does he have to change? It's not adding up. The doctors also said he'd regain his velocity by next spring...does that mean he'll also regain the late movement on his pitches and pinpoint accuracy that made him such a great pitcher too?

He'll be 37 in May and would be in decline if he didn't get hurt. He should go to a team with a chance to win it all as he always states that's the only reason he plays anymore. I'm a huge Doc fan but I don't think we'll ever see him approach where he was in 2010-11.

Check out more on www.phillysportsrant.com

I think the Halladay situation is similar to Howard's current predicament. Are the injuries the cause of the drop in production, or are they just not as good as they once were? Those first 2 innings were painful to watch. I think David Murphy's column regarding Doc's opinion of himself is spot on. Considering how great he's been, he can't allow himself to think he won't be again.

TheMick: Halladay said that he's readjusting to his old arm slot now, after having changed it when his shoulder was hurt earlier. He's definitely more over-the-top now than he was early this season.

Doc's obviously not getting a qualifying offer, but an incentive-based deal might make sense for both sides. After seeing how the Nats got burned on Dan Haren's $13M contract, I doubt anyone will give Doc anywhere close to that number guaranteed. (Of course, if he suddenly flashes his old form in September, that could change.)

Unfortunately, the "old arm slot" is the one that got him shipped off to AAA with a 10.64 ERA in 2000. Everything good that happened in his career happened specifically because he went to AAA in 2000, and changed his arm slot to the one he would use for the next 12 years.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/09/phillies-notes-ruiz-ruf-halladay-kendrick-lannan.html

All kinds of good nuggets including:

- Phils do seem to want Chooch back but Dubee adds he is best limited to 100 games behind the plate. What Dubee thinks is largely irrelevant (he won't be back I bet) but I still think the Phils make a real run at McCann since the alternative (resign Chooch/have a MLB prospect ready to start 50-60 G) isn't really a viable alternative.

- Good interview on Ruf and his feedback but agreed it is too early to tell with him once pitchers start making more adjustments to him.

Why is Samuel the OF's coach on this team? Another minor WTF issue that is just baffling.

- Lannan sounds like he is good which is a good thing. His best attribute coming into the year was his previous durability. The last thing the Phils need to do is piss away $3-$4M on a starter with a bum knee. Won't miss him in the least.

- What kind of strength do the Phils think Halladay will regain? I'm much less concerned about his velocity than his ability to locate his cutter even at 87-88 (he hasn't since he has returned) and his ability to use his changeup effective (used very sparingly and can't judge so far).

If I had to bet on the rotation next year it would almost a carbon copy of this year:

Hamels
Lee
KK
Halladay
5th spot that is won in the spring

Rube would like to get Guidry in here for 5 years/86 million

MG: Do you think Alfredo could lose out as a starter and end up in the pen?

3yr/$12M surely doesn't make it impossible to happen.

He changed his arm slot with the shoulder issues the past year and a half, he is now readjusting to his arm slot before 2012, not his arm slot from 2000, or a different new one. Geez, are we even reading the same articles?

That interview with Ruf is indeed great. He has never not shown himself to be a guy who is easy to root for.

Here's the link: http://bbp.cx/a/21739

lorecore - Yeah I do but it really depends on just who is healthy and ready to go.

Pettibone took forever to recover from his shoulder injury this year even though he doesn't need surgery. Martin is almost certainly going to end up in the bullpen next spring vying for a spot. Morgan's prognosis doesn't look promising and Biddle isn't ready. Almost no starting depth in the system right now.

Amaro and the FO don't have a lot of cash to spend either to round out the roster especially if they bring everyone:

Howard
Lee
Hamels
Utley
Papelbon
JRoll
Adams

That's $120M on a payroll that I will bet wil be less than $160M. MAG adds another $4M ($124M). Doubt they have a dramatic decrease but it wouldn't surprise me if it dips down to $150M.

$25-$35M to round out the rest of the roster isn't going to very far especially if the Phils bring back KK.

It wouldn't surprise me if the Phils try to make a serious run at one of the premier FAs this offseason to show fans 'committed to winning' & use it as a marketing ploy. Garza/McCann might fit that bill because it is both an area of need and bringing back Chooch and KK isn't going to be that cheap.

Almost no depth is correct. Were I the Phils, I might lob 30-40 mil for a posting fee at that Tanaka kid. I haven't seen him pitch, but if the scouts think he'll translate well to the U.S., it's only money. And it's not my money. And it's better than throwing money at recycled vets who are guaranteed to be no better than mediocre, and possibly a lot worse. The kid is only 24 and if he's better than Biddle right now, that would make him by far our best pitching prospect.

my guess at 2014 rotation is:

Hamels
Lee
MAG
KK
Pettibone

I think they put most of their money into various 6th starter types, and shop KK early and often.


Muuuurgh:
A great interview, indeed. I didn't know Darin Ruf's undergrad degree was in accounting. Almost makes you wish he'd have a nice, long career just because it'd be nice to have a professional athlete to point to who should know what to do with the large sums of money they'll earn while playing.

Considering the lack of depth, I imagine KK is back, despite my desire to move on. I see little chance Halladay is back. Unless he's awful in Spring Training, I can't imagein MAG doesn't start in the rotation, or at least as the 6th starter (getting some AAA time). He's not making THAT much money, but they made a splash to bring him in. My guess is they see some big upside in him.

Well, one thing is for certain, BL traffic has slowed to a standstill.

Bad team + No plan for the future + Off Day + CSN management of the site = not a banner couple days for BL page views.

While I think we're all in agreement that this team underperformed expectations and, quite frankly, stinks this year, I do sense that there are two separate camps on resetting expectations for this team going forward.

There's a group who thinks that, via a few "tweaks," some off season moves (despite a crappy FA group) and a few "breaks" (primarily related to player health), this team can be competitive next season. These are likely the folks advocating taking a stab at resigning Halladay in any capacity. They're also the folks that RAJ is banking on to sell tickets for the balance of this year and next.

Then there's the other group who feels that this team is screaming a complete and total overhaul, which will require a few years worth of commitment and a plan. These are the posters who probably at least understand the Utley signing (no other real options...), but aren't thrilled about it and want no real part of rolling the dice on Halladay or re-upping Kendrick. These folks are most likely to have their "fanhood" attacked.

While "there's always next year" is an optimistic way to look at things, and baseball is the sport where hope springs eternal each year and strange things happen, I suspect that RAJ falls more into the former camp than the latter. If he does, indeed, have a "plan," it's one that I am yet to see anyone clearly effectively communicate. Like everyone else, I hope this team is competitive next year, but it's not a sustainable model if that likelihood rests on Howard's health, Utley/Rollins defying conventional aging curves, and Doc finding the Fountain of Youth.

Williard Preacher - This is a terrible team if you look at their stat rankings and run differential.

The question is whether Amaro can even put out a competitive team next year (.500) vs say another stinker that wins 70-75 games.

Cesar CF
Rollins SS
Utley 2ND
Ruiz C
RUF 1
Asche 3RD
Galvis LF
JMJ RF
Lee

Another Rupp-Less game. And another for the bullpen to lose.

Surprised Dom Brown betting shutdown for at least another week with tendinitis in his Achilles.

When are the Phils going to even competently handle injuries let alone well?

If he's being shutdown for at least another week due to an injury, isn't that ok? Roster's are expanded, so putting him on the DL to bring up someone isn't really important.

Any lineup without MM or Bernadina is a step in the right direction.

Willard P - My guess is that a lot of us BL old timers are still out here. Must admit that I frequently read but barely post comments anymore.

MG, personally, I'm with you. Looking at nothing more than the 2014 roster (as we know it) and comparing it to what is likely needed to again be "competitive" (I'd define as in the Wild Card hunt, at the very least), I'd say that there is a significant gap; one that is highly unlikely to be filled this Winter (especially via this craptastic FA market). It looks like we should brace ourselves for a marathon, not a sprint. That said, I tend to fall in the group that would just as soon pass on rolling the dice with Halladay. If Halladay does, indeed, come back well, it would be great for whomever is paying his salary in 2014, but it doesn't make sense that that team be a .500 team, which is what I think we're looking at, at best, right now.

"When are the Phils going to even competently handle injuries let alone well?"

Around the time you can put together a compound sentence.

It is going to be really interesting to see where the Phils' TV ratings stand when the numbers are released in early Oct

Last year they had a notable plunge but still had the 4th most average viewers (168,000/game) and a 5.61 rating.

Interesting to see if the Phils drop out of the Top 10 this year. I think they will stay in it but barely. Ratings since trading deadline must be brutal.

Bad, boring team that doesn't have a single dynamic player to watch or really a young core that is interesting.

I think the idea behind bringing Halladay back is that his potential ceiling would be well above any other of the FA pitchers, and at a one-year, incentive-filled cost. If he doesn't show any signs that he's capable of touching that ceiling, I agree they shouldn't pursue it. Best to move on.

I think Halladay would fit in well with a team like St. Louis if he wants to win a title next year. The player and organization seem like a perfect fit, and many a pitcher have had career resurrections there.

I personally have never questioned anyone's fanhood- I think that is a pointless exercise- but I would make a special exception for the few people here that have been rooting against Halladay for years. I'm thinking of one guy in particular. I'm not sure how you can root against a player and a person like that and still consider yourself a fan, because if your standard is higher than him, you've set the bar impossibly high.

FO plan should be to focus on building a top of the division team in 2015. It can be done with a few good deals, continued development of some of these younger players (Brown, Ashe, Ruf, Franco, Biddle, Martin), a few free agent signings to fill in the gaps. 2014 should be a transition year. I think the fans would be okay with that if they can see a cohesive plan to build a winner.

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