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Saturday, September 21, 2013


From the last thread:

Without knowing what the medicals say on KK's shoulder, he's not worth the risk right now. If its something that can be fixed non-surgically and it isn't a major rotator cuff or Doc type injury, you bring him back at $7 million. If not, you have to make a very tough decision.

KK's injury and the team's treatment of it is yet another black mark on Dr. Ciccotti and the rest of the training staff. Amazing run of incompetence by a training staff that was once considered one of the best in baseball 5-6 years ago.

No one is considering the fact that the Mets might be trying to scare other teams away, and drive KK's price down.

As I said in the last thread, if he can be signed for no more than two or three years, I would take a shot at Ubaldo in 2014.

Jimmy has over a .370 OBP since sandberg called him out (can we all agree that's what he did)?

I'm not one to think a managerial change can do all that much for individual players, but that stat raises an eyebrow. And Rollins absolutely all along had it in him to increase his walk rate. I hope this new approach continues.

Doctors are rarely completely incompetent. You think a whole team of orthopedists suddenly doesn't know tendinitis from a torn tendon?

I doubt it's entirely the doctors fault.

No sense to offer KK arbitration now especially given the shoulder question which is a huge red flag for any starter.

Probably looking at 1 yr/$4-5M base with some decent incentive upside.

Credit where credit is due, even I've been favorably impressed w/ what J-Roll has done of late. I hope he makes it continue into '14.

Maybe JRoll realizing his limitations at this point and playing more within his skill set?

Here is his line since Sandberg took over:

.250/.377/.343 (.720 OPS) with 1 HR, 7 SBs, and 22 BBs, 15 Ks in 130 PAs

I would love to see a version of JRoll who is willing to work more BBs but I just have a hard-time believing he can sustain anywhere close to that rate over an entire season.

His 9.2% BB rate this year is around what it has been the last few years. Been right around ~9% except in '09 (6.1% BB) and '10 (10.2%). Career average is 7.8% BB.

I could see JRoll maybe getting it over 10% next year if he really focuses on it but JRoll is basically a ~.250-.260 with reduced power and speed.

Say a rebound year for him next year would be .260/.340/.370 with 12-15 HRs and 20-25 SBs.

So Sandberg called Jimmy out to change his approach at the plate and Jimmy has changed his approach at the plate?

Are managers actually allowed to do that?

Rollins should also be batting in the #7-#8 range next'd be nice if Sandberg did that instead of having him in the 2 hole.

Utley should be batting 2nd, not Rollins.

If JRoll can get his average up to .270 and really increase his % BB rate over 10% to have it approach .350 (only approached that mark) in '04 and '08), then yeah JRoll could make a decent leadoff hitter.

Seems like Sandberg has him penciled in the No. 2 hole even though a lineup of JRoll-Utley-Howard is a huge issue vs LHP.

There is a massive wall of rain heading Philadelphia way. Might want to speed up play if they want to get this one in.

Conway -- Kendrick really had it going for what amounts to about 1/2 season between 2012 and 2013. With Matt Harvey a big ?? for the Muts, I'm sure they'd love a couple of cheap seasons of "good Kendrick" - which is entirely possible, since there's no evidence Kendrick has sustained any physical injury more significant that a sprain. Which has been known to happen to pitchers from time to time.

GTown - love ya man, but c'mon - Kendrick was often brilliant in late '12 and early '13. I've never been beaned (comments anticipated here), but his dalliance with a thrown baseball maps pretty closely to his demise. Look at David Wright - he was a mess for a while after his concussion; now he's back at it.

I like that Rollins has changed his approach at the plate, but, face it, Rollins is way down on the list of this team's problems.

Game Note: Juan Samuel is back coaching 3B tonight. All base running blunders may be rightfully attributed to his lack of competence.

cut_fastball: Kyle did indeed have a great little run between '12-'13. However, it took years of coaxing, cajoling & outright threatening to squeeze that much out of Kendrick, & it disappeared quickly. There's no consistency in Kyle's game, & he has now reached the point where MLB's ridiculous salary structure prices him far past any realistic usefulness.

You know, Darin Ruf is the quiet triumph of the season with regard to player development, as he'd never be here if his makeup was not so good. And because he's a big guy, it's hard to remember that he's out there busting his butt. Dodging that tag and sliding into first, though? A nice reminder that he's hustling, even if there was never any doubt.

And it's good to see the combo of Ruf and Asche producing, as every lineup wishes the heart of the order could be found batting sixth and seventh.

Well there goes the no-hitter.

Ruf 2X NCAA gold-glover.

Regarding Kendrick's year, and I really hate bringing this up again, but there is a psychological coincidence with the Halladay surgery date, a couple weeks of concern, the pain killers peed away by mid-June and then the reality of the comeback. Kendrick's year followed Roy all the way to the inevitable shoulder problem. Roy & KK - KK & Roy, They're a package deal now.

GTown Dave - Depends on what that salary will be. Look at the guys who keep getting offered 1-yr deals as starters. KK has certainly pitched well enough to elicit a 1-year deal from someone.

Even marginal starters/swingman now are getting a minimum of $3-4M on FA market and backend starters typically starting at a floor of $5-6M or so with varied incentives.

KK has certainly pitched well enough to elicit a 1-year deal from someone.

MG: I still think he'll get more than that. It just shouldn't be from the Phillies.

Dave - It really depends on if he has surgery this offseason or not. I didn't see a report one way or the other indicating what was likely to happen.

If he doesn't, yeah probably a 2-yr deal with moderate dollars. If not, he gets a 1-yr deal where he has to prove himself due to the shoulder surgery.

MG: I'm guessing the shut-down is at least in part an attempt to avoid surgery. It will be interesting to see how other teams view Kendrick's health prospects.

Damn. Murphy got all of that one.

Misjudged just a bit.

Oh, just call it already.

When I do see C. Hernandez in CF, he looks very much like a guy with little/no experience.

This idea that he might be the starting CF next year and challenge Revere is kind of nuts. As much as Revere struggled at times out in CF this year (especially early), he is the guy who should be the starting CF next spring unless the Phils make an acquisition.

C. Hernandez has certainly shown enough though for the Phils to give him a lot of consideration though next spring for a roster spot. Do like what he could bring off the bench though (high AVG guy playing multiple positions including 2B/CF and if necessary corner OF/3B in a pinch)

"Only those in a poncho, an umbrella or a state of confusion remain in their seats." -Franzke

GTown Dave - Yeah. This makes no sense. They should just call it.

Martin is so frustrating to watch although he does look a bit more comforable as a reliever. He has a plus fastball and a decent slider. Needs to work on either his curve/changeup and junk the other one.

Just has no consistency though from pitch-to-pitch and can't begin to hit that outside corner with any kind of frequency.

He'll be in the mix next spring for a bullpen spot because of his velocity but just another hard-throwing RHP reliever in this system with serious control issues.

The only issue though with C. Hernandez though is that a 5-man bench in the NL with Galvis really limits this team late offensively.

When teams carried a 6-man bench, these 2 guys would have been nice complementary pieces off the bench since Galvis would be the middle utility infielder and C. Hernandez as the super-sub.

Phils have a nice little rally going. It's a shame Cloyd/Martin gave up 52 runs in the top half of the inning.

I wasn't sure if Utley was headed toward Home or the Pitcher's Mound there for a second.

Dave - Yup. Say this for the Phils, they have played with more consistent effort since Sandberg took over.

Still essentially the same cr@ppy team but I would say the effort has been improved a bit.

MG: Agreed. It's made for generally more interesting viewing, at any rate.

Dave - It helps they are winning more 1-run games and have moved on from the Youngs.

Franzke & L.A. have embraced Sabermetrics. They've contributed PCDAAOCFTB to the lexicon: Pitcher Can't Do Anything About Outfielder Can't Find The Ball

Is Jim Jackson going to be forced to take some rain delay calls tonight and awkwardly respond to them?

MG: Yes. Yes, he is. I don't think anyone in America is more ready for the start of hockey season.

Almost hear Jim Jackson grinding his teeth about having to take these calls. He HATES this.

NEPP: You replaces KK in the rotation next year?

MG: You are correct about Cesar. He isn't a good CF and it makes no sense to start him there since his value plunges. His only value is at 2B. So you either stash him on the bench until Utley breaks down or you trade him.

I'd trade Cesar AND Ruf for Johnny Manziel.

Juums: You are exceedingly impressed by Asche-Ruf as "the heart of the order."

Fair enough. How does that "heart of the order" stack up statistically with every other team in the NL?

I'll help you get started:

Asche OPS+ = 111
Ruf OPS+ = 130

Just for fun here's the "heart of the order" for another losing team, Colorado:

Tulo OPS+ = 141
CarGo OPS+ = 145
Cuddyer OPS+ = 139

The callers have largely been coherent, calm, and even complementary so far.

Raining like a MoFo where I am and radar doesn't look good.

The radar is green like Eagles jerseys used to be. I expect this game will go down as another Loss.

My tongue was rather firmly in cheek. But Ruf's 130 OPS+ leads the team and Asche's 111 OPS+ is good for fourth on the club. (At least amongst active position players.) One would think you'd see each of them batting higher in the order than 6th or 7th, respectively.

NEPP: You replaces KK in the rotation next year?

Posted by: clout | Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 09:19 PM

No idea...but if his shoulder is majorly messed up, there's no point in having him around. If its not, I'd like to see him back.

What's the point of bringing back a guy if he's got a bum shoulder?

His only value is at 2B. So you either stash him on the bench until Utley breaks down or you trade him.

Posted by: clout | Saturday, September 21, 2013 at 09:20 PM

We all love Utley but he will be 35 next year with a history of knee issues...might make sense keep a guy that can hit for average and play 2B. If that means putting him on the bench and spot starting him at CF and 2B next year...that's not exactly a bad thing. He's far better than our previous bench options of Galvis, Mini Mart and Pete Orr...all of whom our managers have seen fit to throw in CF for some strange reason.

2B with good knees dont tend to age well past Age 35...let alone guys with degenerative issues.

NEPP: Always easy to say get rid of this guy or that. If you're not smart enough to say who replaces them, then it's a pretty worthless statement.

Good, now Jimmy can get all those wonderful records he covets. And maybe he will be able to avoid having the lowest OBP for a person who hit leadoff for more than 10 years.

Oh well. Phils made it interesting, anyway.

Last home game of the season tomorrow. I'm hoping the weather is markedly better than it was tonight.

Not that it matters, but how can Rollins; starting at 2B, wind up at 3B on a double that goes out to the 409 sign?
I know he had to hold up for a moment to be sure the ball wasn't caught but Choo-Choo Coleman could have scored on that ball.

Didn't Jack and TTI have a bet about the Phils finishing in 4th and the Mets finishing ahead of the Mets?

Well, the lose tonight drops the Phils to 4th in the NL East.

Wright had a .287/.352/.523 (.875) with 31 HRs coming into tonight vs Phils in 153 G. Hit his 19th HR in CBP tonight. Don't know if that is the most by an opposing player but it has to be up there.

I wouldn't say he is a 'Philly Killer' but his numbers here are pretty good:

.298/.352/.553 (.905) with 18 HRs in 81 G which only increased after tonight's game.

Do the Phils think they can really contend next year with a starting rotation of Hamels, Lee, and 3 huge question marks especially with a what will be at best an average bullpen next year?

Phils are still a game ahead of the Mets. My bad.

We had The Four Aces theme in 2011. In 2013 the theme was Hamels and Lee followed by assorted debris. If Rube doesn't do something, it may well be the same for 2014.

I would love to see a version of JRoll who is willing to work more BBs but I just have a hard-time believing he can sustain anywhere close to that rate over an entire season.
--posted by MG
Why? he's already had multiple seasons under Charlie where his BBs were above or nearly identical with his SOs. (2008,9, 11)

The idea that Rollins isn't selective is a myth; the problem has always been what he does with the pitches he offers at.

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