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Wednesday, September 18, 2013

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Good for Halladay for working within the confines of his current abilities, and making the appropriate adjustments.

That said, when it comes to next year, if that's the kind of pitcher they want, I hear RJ Swindle is available and is asking only a mere fraction of what it would take to retain Doc's services.

Preacher: What, you're not excited over the prospect of "Doc" Moyer: The Legend Continues?

"No, he "needed" to become a LF because D. Young refused to play anywhere by RF, & r00b agreed."

I dislike advanced defensive metrics, because I think there's a lot of things they simply can't account for. Even with FIELDf/x, I think that there's a lot you simply won't be able to quantify - even over the long run - with measurable metrics.

That said.

Delmon Young's UZR/150 in RF for his career (1889.2 innings): -1.3

Domonic Brown's UZR/150 in RF for his career (886 innings): -20.9

Delmon Young's UZR/150 at all positions for his career: -12.5

Domonic Brown's UZR/150 at all positions for his career: -14.3

Of course, DYoung hadnt really played RF in almost 6 years and was coming off micro-fracture ankle surgery so those metrics were absolutely meaningless...so there's that.

Even Young's 2013 RF UZR/150 (-22.4) is only inferior to Brown's 2012 (-8.9). Both Brown's 2010 (-37.2) and 2011 (-27.5) were inferior to Young's - dramatically so.

I wouldn't say Young is a better defender than Brown, because Brown is likely already better now than Young is and Young is only likely to further deteriorate.

However, let's not pretend Brown is good. He's not. He's solidly below average for his position at every position he's ever played.

Phillibuster: I didn't say I agreed w/ the decision. Dom started something like 38 of the final 43 games last season in RF, & he shouldn't have been moved ... certainly not for a washed up crap sack like D. Young.

Brown still stinks defensively in LF. He just isn't such a liability that you really have strongly consider moving him to another position.

He still has no/little clue though on which way to break though when a ball is hit off the bat. At this point, if he hasn't learned that given being a corner OF for the past few years in the majors/minors, he won't ever really learn it.

GTown: I'm somewhat confused by what you just said.

I agree that Young wasn't a starting RF. However, Brown is/was bad.

Among RF with at least 300 innings in 2012, he 34th (out of 42) in UZR/150. That was his best defensive performance, outside of the 141 innings he played in LF that year (and the 15 in RF this year).

Miner is a marginal AAA starter. Too bad I didn't catch this sooner because the Fish opened at +180 and are now down to +115 or +120. Missed a good arbitrage opportunity.

MG: Exactly. That's why I'm confused by all the people who say he should be in RF.

His arm is nice, and if we could amputate it and stitch it onto a legitimate RF, I would want to do so. Unfortunately, the rest of him is attached to it, and so he's likely to be worse in RF than LF.

We had one guy this year who was supposed to be better in RF than LF, despite conventional wisdom indicating that was unlikely.

@Preacher: Why go for RJ when you can get Moyer himself? Rumor has it he is working on a knuckleball.

Which Phillies are plus defenders at this point? Rollins, Galvis ... & that's about it. The rest of the roster is average-to-below. There's nowhere to "hide" anyone.

I'm not following the line of thinking that it's better to put Brown in left than right. To my experience, playing balls in right is not dissimilar to left. You may get more slice on balls hit by right handers but, I'm not aware of any data suggesting you get more chances there. The major difference between the corners is on the distance the right fielder has to throw to keep runners from advancing to third. That's why you put Brown there. Otherwise, you're not utilizing his one fielding asset.

What, you're not excited over the prospect of "Doc" Moyer: The Legend Continues?

:)

But Lordy, it's painful to watch "Jamie Doc" right now, with the "Power Doc" memory still fresh.

Matt Gelb (‏@magelb)
Kyle Kendrick has rotator cuff tendinitis. Considered good news. Will play catch tomorrow. Could make last two starts.

Good news for KK on the shoulder front but what about the post-concussion syndrome that sidetracked his season?

M. Martinez: The Phillies intend to sign Kyle to for 3/$30 million. They will then require him to spend the offseason lying down in a dark, quiet room. Three straight Cy Young Awards will surely result.

Looks like Cuban free agent infielder Alexander Guerrero is back on the market now that he's changed representation. But the Phillies aren't in on him or the Tanaka kid, the pitcher from Japan. Rube said he can't see either of them playing centerfield, so there really are no openings on the team.

No, he really didn't say that, but you all know he is thinking it.

And neither of them is injured, so there's that. It's as if they didn't check a single one of Rube's boxes.

Gelb tweets that Kendrick is seeking a 2nd opinion with the Mets team doctor. Is that a common practice? Seeking a 2nd opinion from a rival's medical staff?

@aksmith, Guerrero switched agents to Boras, so there is no way the Phils make a play at him.

Norbertoads: Probably not too uncommon, since teams would seem to want to retain the best physicians available.

Then again, if there's one team with a worst injury record than the Phillies, it's the Mets, so...

Guerrero is a 2B, why would the Phillies be bidding +$30M for him after they just re-signed Utley?

"Guerrero is a 2B, why would the Phillies be bidding +$30M for him after they just re-signed Utley?"

So they can move him to the OF, Duh!

It's not entirely settled that Guerrero is a second baseman. That's the opinion of a couple of scouts. In fact, most of the teams with interest in him already have solid second basemen. So, they must feel differently about where he will end up. But, hey, the scouts we read opinions from are . . . . well, they are people who write for fans for a living. While the teams bidding on him have real, actual scouts.

I suppose the scouting wannabes are liable to be correct sometimes. And goodness knows the Phillies' scouts have made some amazingly huge mistakes. But if half a dozen teams think he can play short or third, rather than second, I'd probably go with them first. Not foolproof. But just more likely to be correct.

On a related topic, I was guessing it was most prevalent with the Phillies, out of necessity, but it sounds as if it's becoming more and more commonplace in MLB to move guys around on the field defensively. Not sure what prompted it (ARod/Soriano/HanRam moves to new positions?), but it used to be that guys played one position and that was it. Not saying it's better or worse (certainly makes for more interesting discussion), but it's a recent dynamic that, I suppose, is meant to assemble the best offensive team possible.

"Gelb tweets that Kendrick is seeking a 2nd opinion with the Mets team doctor. Is that a common practice? Seeking a 2nd opinion from a rival's medical staff?"

WTF. It has gotten borderline ridiculous sad/comical how the Phils' players are going outside the organization for medical advice & treatment.

Utley & his agent throwing down the gauntlet though to Amaro and insisting that they be allowed to go outside the organization to me in that Philly magazine article really changed my perception of how the players view the medical staff/trainer.

Since then, there has been more tidbits and other revelations that just point to a borderline gross level of dysfunction internally on how this team handles and treats injuries.

... it's a recent dynamic that, I suppose, is meant to assemble the best offensive team possible.

3.85 Runs/Game ... Success!

I'm not sure changing positions to get more good bats in a lineup is a recent development. It's been going on since at least the end of the dead ball era when the Yankees took the best left handed pitcher in baseball and deposited him in right field.

GTown, you can move the deck chairs around on the Titanic all you want, but you can't make chicken soup out of chicken poop.*

*yeah, I totally just conflated two separate analogies, but I feel my point should be clear

You get nominally more chances in RF than LF. It's not a big deal but between the additional chances and more chances to prevent runners from advancing to 3rd it is a bit more important to put a better fielder there.

I have to go back and look but I think it was typically only 20-25 more chances in RF over a course of the season. Not a big number at all.

One of the most eagerly anticipated things about 2014 for me: Zach Miner going back to being organizational filler.

One of the most eagerly anticipated things about 2014 for me: Luis Garcia going back to cutting hair, presumably very badly.

I'm sure we can do this for most of the bullpen. Though Garcia doesn't annoy me to the same degree Miner does, but my dislike of Miner is entirely irrational in the first place. (Well, the intensity of my dislike. There're plenty of reasons not to like a 5.56 FIP reliever.)

Garcia annoys me more due to the organizational failure of which he's a prime example than as an individual. The notion that he was out there cutting hair because the rest of baseball somehow didn't notice what a talent he was ... It goes back to the whole "But we found Jayson Werth!" obsession.

Trying to change the conversation by going back to Halliday for a moment. He is at the point in his career that will make or brake him as a pitcher.

I think back to Robin Roberts, he pushed as long as he could the way he always pitched then after a bad year and a trade to Baltimore, he revived his game. You can look up the stats on Robin, but he was a very effective middle of the order pitcher for 4 more years.

Halliday can figure this out and I expect him to do just that. He has a variety of pitches that can still be affective. I suggest giving him time to work it out.

Robin retired at age 40. He was working with the Phils minor league team in Reading. I saw him the day before he announced his retirement.

Annoys me when Ruf strikes out on pitches like that

It's who Darin Ruf is, unfortunately, Cyclic. That being said, he doesn't do it nearly as often as I thought he would. (And for what it's worth, at least that slider was close.)

While whiffing on the breaking pitch low and away grates, what infuriates me is when he lets himself get called out looking. As he's a better hitter than to get caught looking the number of times he has this season.

Franzke: "What are you going to do on your off day, prepare for Dice-K?"

L.A.: "Yeah, practice writing 'Walk'."

I guess taking first pitch meatballs is more infuriating as well

George: If Halladay is willing to sign for whatever Robin Roberts made for his age 36-40 seasons, adjusted for inflation, I'm all for it.

I find myself wondering if the strikeout rate will drop a bit if Ruf starts attacking those first- or second-pitch meatballs that come his way far more often than they should. As I agree, Ruf usually sets himself up for the K on the breaking ball low and away by taking that pitch, as the taken meatball's the only hittable offering he'll get in the entire PA.

I started to become infuriated at Ruf for getting thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd yesterday, but then I realized he only made the second out at 3rd, so then I was OK with it.

Everyone's favorite barber just struck out the second most sought-after trade piece in MLB, and made a fool of him in the process. Make of that what you will.

"The notion that he was out there cutting hair because the rest of baseball somehow didn't notice what a talent he was ... It goes back to the whole "But we found Jayson Werth!" obsession."

I'll disagree with you here. There are plenty of late-blooming, but capable, major league players out there who all 30 teams have managed to miss. Garcia throws 95 MPH, has good movement on his slider, & is only 26. So they plucked him out of obscurity & gave him a shot at Single A. When he pitched well, they moved him to AA, then AAA, and then the majors. We now know, beyond any reasonable doubt, that he's horrendous. But I have no objection to the process.

I'm far more offended when they recycle 30-something year old stiffs like Zach Miner and Roger Bernadina and John McDonald -- guys who have already proven their suckitude & are already too old for there to be any realistic chance of improvement.

Kick save and a beauty!

BAP:
I think you're right, re: Miner and McDonald. Bernadina's arguable, though. Miner and McDonald do almost nothing competently for an MLB club. (Miner can eat an inning here and there, which about it between the two of them.) Bernadina's still a competent corner defender, which he vigorously underlined by gunning Ruggiano down at second. He's at least an average baserunner.

Yeah, the bat stinks, which is why he won't ever be a starter. But he's still a useful bench piece for the right club. (That club is probably not the Phils, though.)

Generous call. Looked like Rollins blew the tag.

oh, hey, another out on the basepaths

You know, it's great when you work a walk. It's not nearly as great when you and give up the out two pitches later.

And it would seem Ruf heard our earlier grousing. Looked like he didn't get all of it -- and that it might've been a little low -- but baseball is ultimately a game of failure, so what matters is his willingness to swing at first-pitch strikes.

I would have loved to get Evoldi last year. His stock was down with the Dodgers just as Hanley's was.

Victorino probably wasn't going to get him alone, but im sure there was a way to pry him loose.

As good as Chooch has been with the bat lately, the odious defense this season remains a serious red flag with regard to resigning him. As that run doesn't score if Ruiz throws to first on the bunt or keeps the ball in the dirt in front of him.

I would have loved to get Evoldi last year ...

Yeah, but the Phillies did convince L.A. to part w/ LindBomb, so Win!

Men on first and second, you say? It's a good thing we pinch-hit with Mini-Mart. It's not like we needed that out for much, right? ...right?

Utley!

All of this began because Roger Bernadina was an Unproductive™ stiff who had the temerity to take the walk. Just doing everything he can to get nontendered, I suppose.

It drives me mad when the opposing pitcher can't throw a strike to save his life & the next batter comes in hacking. Just plain stupid.

Juums: Let me know when Bernadina's OBP reaches .300 ... or even .275

The life and times of the new Dom Brown, I suspect. Aggression has been rewarded thus far this season, but it also leads to things like hacking at that curveball.

Setup guy!

The Phillies also received Martin in that deal. Lookin' good, Ethan!

Bernadina's up to a .251 OBP! At least he's above the Martinez Line.

I feel bad for Evan Gattis, as his reign as the belter of the longest HR in the history of Citizens Bank Park was frighteningly short-lived.

It's a cool night, too. That ball was abused.

I also take back all everything I said about Stanton being a considerate fellow, because that one homer just erased all of the good work he did disabusing RAJ of his value. I wholly expect Franco, Biddle, Ruf, Quinn and several large burlap sacks of cash will be sent down to Florida this off-season so as to acquire Stanton.

Hechavarria has a slightly better vertical jump than most of us.

...Jesus. Credit to Hechavarria. I can't even use my Galvis Would've Had That™ riff on that, because it would be demeaning to the accomplishment. (And because Galvis almost certainly wouldn't have had it.)

Hahaha. baserunning

Can I retract my statement that Bernadina's at least an average baserunner? Because he just his darnedest to say that he isn't.

The Phillies were clearly dismayed to find they only ranked 5th in MLB's "Tossed Out On The Base Paths" rankings.

Juums, it was Kratz's fault

Hernandez with another stupid walk

Would love for Ruf to go deep off of Qualls here.

RISP, 0 Out?

Miami has the Phils right where they want 'em.

A bomb would've been nice, but Ruf's moving the runner up is still good enough for me. Situational hitting isn't exactly the forte of guys with monster power, but lets see if Asche can plate Brown.

I can't stand seeing us go down to Qualls.

Effin' Hechavarria. That makes 6.2 IP scoreless vs. the Phillies for Qualls.

It's always hard to see your team go down to good defense, because you never want to fault someone for playing their position well. However, if Hechavarria happened to come down with a migraine that keeps him out the rest of the game, I don't think anyone will mind him being done.

Funny how sucky former Phillie pitchers learn how to pitch again and/or get incredibly lucky when facing the former squad.

Those Hechaverria highlights and the Stanton bomb were ridiculously awesome to see.

I don't think you can ask much more from a bullpen game than 3R surrendered in 9IP. It'll be a sorry state of affairs if the Phillies don't win this thing.

Just think... When the Phillies win out, we win the pennant! Won't that be great!!!!

Huh?? Wha?!?

Looked out there.

Rollins been real good on the bases lately.

That was not a smart play. Aggressive, but not smart.

Good call, ump!

Whoa, it's like Jimmy of old, stealing 2B & 3B.

That was a much better idea. Straight steal caught the Marlins completely off guard.

Ok, Chase. Do this.

And Utley blows it. Booooooooo ...

Rats!

Of course the bp game goes to extras.

wow...i guess jimmy's call was close so the marlins were owed one, but he was clearly gunned.

When Franzke stops talking there is dead silence.

Ed Lucus taketh and Ed Lucus giveth.

That's how, Dom.

I'm torn. I have both Ruf and Cishek on my fantasy team.

Heinous. What a f*cking choke job.

Well that sucked.

The Phillies had chances to win in the 8th, 9th, and 10th.

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