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« Lee baffles Braves, Asche keeps raking in Phils' win | Main | Papelbon blows it, but Galvis saves it »

Saturday, September 07, 2013

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Except for Chase & Chooch, this is our AAA lineup.

Ashame to see Brown not get to 30hrs.

If r00b were smart he'd dump KK and sell high on Dom, where 27 HRs will be his career high.

"Kendrick can't possibly have an MLB career" - BL the past 5 years.

Looking forward to seeing Wood: 95 mph fastball, good changeup, funky delivery.

Mayberry has played so much vs. RHP I wonder if he's lost his confidence and can no longer hit LHP. If so, Phillies deserve the blame. Starting him vs. RHP is a crime.

Hasn't KK been one of the best pitchers for the Phillies the past 2 and a half seasons or something like that ( before the concussion )

Correlation does not imply causality.

Sell high on Brown to get what? Brown needs to be in Phillyand hit for this team to contend in the near them.

Asche clearly read our discussion in the last thread and is doing his damnedest to remind us why scouts were questioning his defense, without actually doing anything to harm the team.

KK BABIP has been ridiculous lately.

KK being KK again. Even post-injury, Doc's floor is higher than KK's ceiling.

Lose w/ Cloyd, or lose w/ Kendrick? I'd rather lose w/ the guy who costs $8+ million less. Whichever team Kyle signs w/ this coming offseason is a colossal sucker.

choochie !!

Phils' record in 1-run games: 9-2 under Sandberg vs. 14-21 before.

Q.E.D.

Clout: "Past a diving Chase Utley..." has been the story of KK's second half, hasn't it? Sooner or later it has to come around, though.

In the meantime, Chooch will just have to keep doin' what he's been doing for the past three weeks.

Another Unproductiveâ„¢ PA from Darin Ruf. How's he ever going to make his way onto the roster with all those walks?

Asche is looking like a prime Utley against lefties. Meanwhile Utley is starting to look like the sub-prime Howard against lefties.

KK's not doing himself any favors in the tender/nontender debate by failing to strikeout Dan Uggla of all people.

Is Mayberry going to finish the month on a super hot streak to ensure he's tendered again?

.584 OPS for BJ Upton.

Wow, that's just ridiculous.

Clout, I've always agreed with your take on Kendrick. From the "no-strikeouts" stuff in 2007, through the "deer in the headlights" and of course the "he doesn't throw hard enough crowd".

But now that his biggest value (pre-arbitration years) is gone, I think he's at the point where for the dollars it will take to keep him, you can hope to find another veteran that can give you more for the same salary, or perhaps only a small bit more.

It seems like a good time to walk away from KK in 2014.

Its a shame that Ruiz can't hit without PEDs as it would have been nice to see him have a solid year in 2013.

Oh well.

I'd tender KK an offer. I think a big part of this slump is concussion related...also, it's just 1 more year and there's a better than even chance that he bounces back to his 2011-2012 form that would be well worth $8 million.

If he does well, he'd be a good trade piece next year so there's that.

There goes Ruf, with another unproductive walk. At this rate, he'll be lucky to be on the 25 man roster next year.

Seriously though, the fact that I'm consistently amazed by a player who will take multiple walks a game probably says something...

It's wonderful that Chooch has found his stride. It just stinks that it took him until mid-August to do it. Just like it stunk that it took Ben Revere a month to get going, only to go down to a freak injury just as he was getting hot.

Ever since Uncle Cholly was cut loose, something has clicked with this ball club. I'm not saying that the firing did it; just that you can see the way the team carried itself changed. Despite all of the mockery about this being an AAA(A) lineup, does that cloud of inevitable hang quite as thick when they get down by a couple of runs? Sure, the offense is not menacing, but at least you can tell yourself they can string together a couple of hits or walks to at least try getting back into it with a straight face.

I wonder, when the season is over, if hindsight will show that RAJ's great mistake was that, in clinging to being a .500 club, the calling-up and throwing against the wall of various young talent which has provided the catalyst for the little renaissance of Sandberg's short tenure was delayed and, thus, the team's hopes of a run like last year's quashed.


i agree about kk, NEPP. the fog of concussion has finally lifted. your not saying chooch is back on the peds, are you?

Whoever suggests trading brown at this point is just straight up admitting that they're a moron.

I'm saying I dont think the adderall really affect his hitting one way or the other.

@Nepp: Of course it does. A one-armed swing on a low ball like that? No way it gets to the wall without Adderall.

i'm just saying to the ppl who suggest trading ruf, that i would move brown before ruf. personally i would keep both. it's funny how the calls for getting young have flipped to "it's a AAAA team." next year seems pretty well set, with 4 of eight representing the youth movement.

Good point bullit. We need new blood, yet there are is a slow drum beat that Ruf and, to a lesser degree, Asche are fools gold. They may be, but I like what I'm seeing from them and others. Ben Revere was an anomaly. The only way to REALLY get younger is by promoting farmhands. Oh, and take Aumont out to the back 40 and put a bullet in him. He's got more ability than most, but he IS Iron Pyrite.

sorry NEPP. i should have recognized the sarcasm. i do wonder though if, beyond the increased focus from adderall, there might also be some fast-twitch muscle enhancement.

Bullit:
The problem with trying to sell high on Dom is that it's impossible to do so under the circumstances. The Phils have had so many opportunities to unload him during his struggles, to flip him the moment he starts living up to the hopes that were had for him is going to send-up red flags that he's damaged goods or that the Phils are otherwise attempting to utilize information asymmetry to their advantage. Which will kill his value and thus make selling high pointless.

There's also the problem of who replaces his offensive production. There's no easy fix there, as it either means breaking the bank to sign Choo or Ellsbury this off-season or hoping that a rehab project like Nelson Cruz or Corey Hart pan out. (And doing such also means that you forfeit the upside of adding either of those options plus Brown to the OF.)

From 6/25 to 8/27 KK's BABIP was .364 vs. .272 before that, an increase of 34%. During the same time his line drive percentage was up about 50%, from .175 to .266. Since 70% of line drives are hits, a 50% increase in line drives equates to about 35% more hits, almost identical with KK's 34% increase in BABIP.

http://phielderschoice.com/2013/09/kyle-kendrick-and-the-regression-monster/

Bottom line:

KK's recent higher BABIP looks less like a matter of bad luck than of giving up 50% more line drives from not keeping the ball down. Maybe the concussion is at fault.

Wish Ceasar could play SS defensively like Galvis.

The thing about KK too is unless he is absolutely cy younging it out there, he needs his defense behind him ( all GB pitchers do ) and that hasn't been there. It was early in the year but when Young started slowing down and looking worse then a lawn chair, it affected KK in a few games.

Just using Young as one example.

The only reason to move Brown over Ruf is that Ruf would net next to nothing in a trade because the league knows what he is.

Moving Brown for some lottery tickets would be the exact opposite of what the organization should be doing at this point.

Waiting for DeFratus to give it up like a prom date, here...

I wish the CF experiment with Li'l Cesar was providing better results. While no one's rooting for Ben Revere to fail in CF, Hernandez would be a better fit for the lead-off position, assuming his OBP will play. So far, though, it's a mixed bag from Hernandez on that front.

With the parts available, if you absolutely had to have Hernandez's bat in the order, you could always try something like shifting Utley to LF, Brown to RF, and Ruf to 1B with Hernandez at 2B. The question there is whether you think Hernandez's 2B defense is equivalent to a declining (but still good) Chase Utley's and whether you think Utley can provide as good of LF defense as Ruf. Given all of the problems we've had with people playing out-of-position, though, I don't think you can start thinking about until Utley declines to the point where Hernandez is a clear defensive upgrade.

i agree, Juums. brown's seeming fragility concerns me.

3 Walks? Time to just cut him outright.

Strawman.... I mean Iceman: I don't know how you get from " sell high on Dom" to trade him for lottery tickets. Don't get me wrong. I'm not advocating for a Dom trade but nobody said anything about giving him away. After the season he had, he would command a nice haul.

rube broke his pencil after that last ruf walk.

Bullit:
Brown's "fragility" is an...interesting point. Some of his injury history falls into the category of freak baseball injuries like that which befell Ben Revere: Nobody can control whether they're beaned on the hands and, if they are, whether they break their hamate bone. Ditto his concussion: It was suffered while making a diving catch and it can be difficult to keep your head from getting rattled around in those scenarios.

As for his hamstring a few years ago and his Achilles more recently, I get your point. Brown has, for a young player, been susceptible to nagging, day-to-day-type injuries. Whether this is because of bad luck or a real fragility, I cannot say. What I can say is that this is a problem for an organization which gives their players a good deal of rope to self-diagnose those same sorts of injuries. I don't think there's really an answer to that beyond hoping it's bad luck for Dom on the injury front, so that we don't ever have to see him at the center of the kind of melodrama that surrounded Ryan Howard in May.

The Flyin Hawaiian is flying high for one more summer. Imagine if the Braves has grabbed him instead of one of the Uptons, http://espn.go.com/boston/mlb/story/_/id/9643377/boston-red-sox-stun-new-york-yankees-add-another-stranger-fiction-win

That is a very good hitter that Diekman just neutered. Such is the funhouse that is the Phillies bullpen.

Yes, Jake. We are loving Shane here :)

Chances Diekman is ever this good again?

That whole Vic/Ellsbury overlap reminds me of the Vic/Werth overlap the Phillies had. What do they call that concept? Oh yeah, depth. I won't even use the "V" word.

i wonder if the concussion doesn't fall into the fragility category, rather than the freak injury. lot's of guys dive for balls, but there don't seem to be too many concussions. does he have a "glass jaw?

has anyone heard what the revere injury entailed? how many bones involved? any plates and screws (those are forever)? when he comes back that ankle is going to be armored-up like utley, which will slow him down.

My heart says that Diekman's found the Good News and become an effective reliever. My head reminds my heart that it said the same thing about Aumont about this time last season, when he was looking about as good as Diekman has of late.

Diekman has a surprisingly good year isn't one of the thing I have would have ever predicted.

Even got his BB/9 below 4.0 now which he hasn't done in a season since Rookie ball back in '07.

Christ Sandy, It's September. You can burn a pinch hitter when they change pitchers. It's Roger Bernadina not Roger Marris.

Kyle Drabek getting hit around tonight out of the bullpen in Toronto.

3 H, 1 BB, 1 R in 0.0 IP so far.

He loaded the bases, didn't record an out and has now been pulled for another reliever. Great return from surgery there.

@Juums

Id rather Ruf stay in LF and Utley move to 1B with Ceas taking over 2B.

His def, last i read somewhere is a positive at 2B.


But alas, Howard is here so there goes any movement. If they had him learning SS it would be a different story

Nice throw Punkton. It will look good with your Golden Sombrero.

Huge insurance run there.

nice to see franny living up to the scrappiness of his helmut.

Fransden is a hall of very gooder as a platoon player. Wish we had one or two left handed hitters that fit that bill.

Damnit, Frandsen. Stop giving yourself reasons to be tendered. The Phils already have enough tough roster decisions to make without having to worry about whether they need to tender you, too, when they've already got a perfectly good utility IF making the league minimum. ...who's currently playing CF.

That statement's probably the best encapsulation of how surreal 2013 has gotten for the Phils.

Middlebrooks had a 2-4 day and is now at .262/.303/.476 with 29 HRs in 152 G.

Still glad the Phils didn't trade Lee for a guy like Middlebrooks. He fits Rube's desire for 'Production' but doesn't take nearly enough BBs and defensively been below average so far.

Asche will never remotely have that kind of power potential but if the Phils are going to trade Lee (and they won't this offseason) for a package of players I would love to see it be centered around a stud C/SS prospect instead with a decent starting prospect.

The surreal thing about the Phillies Juums is how many times they've had to use platoon players in ways they shouldn't. Think RFD.

With C. Hernandez and Galvis, can we please never see Mini-Mart again this year or more importantly next year?

Include the scrappy Canadian (Orr) too.

Boy, Andrelton Simmons sure has a rag arm?

I know we don't cross teams here, but Cary Williams has set himself up to be the Eagles version of Papelcrud. The faithful are just dying to hate him.

Roger B,yet another superb pick up by our GM.

Shitoslavich.

DIAF Paps. Seriously GTFO of town after this game

damn it

again

papelbon

Aughh!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Oh boy. There's number seven.

Papelbon just doesn't have the stuff to put away hitters with 2 strikes nearly automatically like he used to.

Papelbon is a douchebag.

Scrappy to Pappy to Crappy. Say no to crappy.

He gives up a game-tying HR right after I post that.

He'll get booed off the field and rightly so.

all of opps to get another run

I'd say I was surprised by this, but really...it's impossible to be surprised by Papelbon blowing a save. This is the franchise that perfected snatching defeat from the jaws of victory in my youth, after all.

Just don't forget our sterling defense was responsible for the base runner in front of that HR.

Simmons is really, really good. But there's no excuse for running that pitch back over the plate belt-high.

(counting my blessings the sox let Paps walk...)

Freddy could hit this chump all day and night.

Galveeeees.

Walk off in style Freddy!

freddy!!!

Freddy has a sense for the dramatic.

Our young SS hits a walk-off HR to respond to the tying HR hit by the Braves' young SS?

Most fitting.

freddy of the current beating the freddy of the past!

Well thank God. Glad to see Freddy Garcia still sucks dog balls.

Freddddddy!!

Jimmy who?

Jesus, TBag is a raging queen. All he's worried about it what everybody is wearing. Who is he, Coco Chanel?

Galvis raised his OPS from .613 to .661 on the year with tonight's effort.

Hamels-Maholm is a good matchup for the Phils except that the Phils' lineup has been putrid for LHP starters (especially since the ASB) and Chooch will sit tomorrow.

Phils have continued to play pretty well at home though and are now 37-33. 65-77 puts them with the 11th worst record in MLB. takes them to 74-win pace but with their schedule this month I think they end up closer to 76-77 wins (11-9 or 12-8 over the last 20 given the favorable schedule and the last 4 in Atlanta which will be exhibition games)

12-10 since Sandberg took over...despite some god awful lineups.

Phillies bullpen pitchers tonight making the league minimum: 2 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 4 K

Phillies bullpen pitchers tonight making $12 million or more: 1 IP, 2 H, 2 R, 0 BB, 0 K

Jack: You should work for the CIA.

Strong finish will mask too a bit what a cr@ppy ball game this though with the Phils using some of the same old excuses this offseason including 'injuries.'

If you want to see a younger club next year though, I do think for the first time in quite a long time you'll get your wish with several younger players in the lineup and on the bench.

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