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Friday, September 13, 2013


Not sure if this is a viable question but can you send Doc to instructional/Winter League before making any decisions. Hate to give up on him but hate the Phils to be stuck with another bad contract over the hill vet.

I think Doc is making the Phillies decision easier, not harder.

Jordan - this decision becomes easier and easier with each start Doc makes. I love Doc; he's honestly one of my favorite players of all-time. But the front office needs to assume more of a 'what have you done for me lately' mentality and stop thinking that they owe something to players who are no longer performing.

Thanks for the memories Doc - and Good luck

The answer is easy. If the name on the jersey was anything, but Halliday how would you make the decision? Discussion doesn't even take into consideration money! The Phillies history is littered and remains ongoing with long term contracts that have severely hampered the recent teams. Don't make another mistake.

To me it's become an easy decision. Do not sign Roy Halladay.

Iceman - Now that your schoolmarm henchman Mr. Injection chimed in with a reference to a writing style I'm not sure the ahem - NSA - could have deciphered, let's look at some facts:

* Ben Revere hits for practically no power. Before his injury.
* Mr. Revere's contributions on offense are based on speed; his severe ankle injury might have left him a step slower.
* The jury is still out, but Mr. Revere's utility as an everyday CF is hindered by the fact he can't throw.

I've given up "rooting" for Mayberry. It's my guess the wise choice for Revere fans would be to see how spring training plays out. A hobbled CF with a rag arm and zero pop doesn't help this team.

Revere's injury will never heal and he will be hobbled the rest of his career?

The funny thing is I thought for sure people in this town would love Revere because he hustles, which according to many is the ultimate sign of a player. But because the guy has no power, welp he's a lost cause and should be outrighted.

It's not personal, it's business.

And he's making the decision super easy.

RedBurb - That's not what I said. Revere's young; if he heals 100%, why not see the same player prior to injury?

Problem is, life holds no guarantees. Let's wait and see.

If I were Monty I'd offer Doc a chance to buy into the ownership. Doc could then give himself a job as assistant pitching coach/player. His coaching responsibilities would include removing the starting pitchers from the game when instructed and teaching Canadian Aumont to throw strikes. Halladay would learn patience, pay himself league minimum and Monty could use the Doc Dollars to buy more pitching. Lifetime player contract or until WS graces his hand.

If the name on the jersey was anything, but Halliday

I chuckled a bit when I read this ...

Doc = broadcast booth

cut - Huh? You said he was "a hobbled CF." You are implying that his injury will never heal correct? I think it's very premature to assume that he will be hobbled the rest of his career since ya know he's 25 and it's a broken bone.

I'm curious though - what did you think the Phillies were getting when they traded for Revere? It seems to me those who rail against Revere the most are the ones who had a skewed impression of him to begin with.

I love Halladay. I used to look forward to his starts.

Howeve4r, at this point in time, I don't know how any team could offer him more than a hugely incentive-laden, one-year deal.

Thus, the question for the Phillies becomes what is the base salary and guaranteed portion of the contract, and whether that money could be better spent elsewhere.

The Phillies will have a need for SP in 2014. Is the risk worth what Halladay can get in guaranteed money.

I've been one of Doc's biggest defenders. It isn't a difficult decision.

The guy still clearly has the stuff to get hitters out. But with each passing start, as his command stays the same (and even gets worse), it's tough
er to see it ever coming back on a consistent basis.

Hopefully he will throw another start at home, because I want to go and give him a standing ovation for what he's done here. But they shouldn't bring him back. More than anything, it's painful to watch.

I hope he catches on somewhere and prolongs his career against the odds.

Another thread on the new Beerleaguer that does not at all match the consensus in the comments in previous threads. Almost nobody on this site is making the case that Halladay should be brought back, and few are even agonizing over it. Doc isn't what he used to be and even if he was he should try to pitch for a contender while he still can--we all know it. But you certainly wouldn't know that from reading the post up top, about what a tough decision this is. Do the guys who run this site even read the comments?

Wow. Offense and relief pitching last night. Who are these guys?

Halladay is gonna sign a one year contract with someone - not even a minor league one either. Depending on what the offers are, he might end up here. But I doubt it.

I expect that he will be better than what we've seen recently. But he'll never be, say, Halladay. (Maybe he SHOULD change the spelling of his name.)

Rollins really is walking a lot since Sandberg became manager. 19 BB in 21 GS. fluke?

sanz, in 22 games since Sandberg became manager, rollins has done this because of the walks:

.233 .378 .342

A .720 OPS, which would put him 6th in MLB among qualified SS, assuming he could keep it up all season.

The .378 OBP would be the best by a wide margin. The top OBP among MLB SS is .344 (Jed Lowrie).

It's amazing to me just how quickly Halladay declined from Cy Young to horrible.

This is one of those situations where, regardless of the outcome, it would be tough to blame anyone for their decision.

I wouldn't blame the Phils for re-signing him at a reasonable deal (read: low dollar/years). I wouldn't blame another team for overpaying for him and the Phils not countering. I wouldn't blame Halladay for taking more money elsewhere. And I wouldn't blame Halladay for signing with a contender.

The only way I'd blame anyone involved is if the Phillies over-pay for him in dollars/years.

Lots of really weird conversation over the last day. My vote for most ridiculous is that Choo is a better defensive CF than Ben Revere by the AEC guy.

Nobody respects the work Halladay puts into his game more than I do. The first two years of his contract were worth every penny and then some. I never buzzed like I did when he threw the perfect game and then the no hitter in the NLDS. But there comes that time where you have to look at what you want and what you're going to get. Halladay might have some good days left but we have a team full of way too much "might" and not enough definites. Adding to that just seems like a bad investment. Unless he's super cheap, I just think it's the wrong move and it pains me to say that.

with the caveat that anyone who (still)thinks the Phillies can get Stanton is DQ'd from even being considered as conversation.

Rollins really is walking a lot since Sandberg became manager. 19 BB in 21 GS. fluke?

This is hogwash! It's not like a manager with a clue could change the way a player approaches ABs, or they way a team approaches the game altogether.

If the Charlie Manuel era taught me anything, it's that everything is always on the players, not the manager.

Among SS with at least 30 PA, Rollins recent 22 game "BB streak" OPS would rank him 14th, and his OBP during that period would rank him 3rd, behind HanRam and Tulo.

If this IS the new JRoll, and he can continue to get on base at that kind of pace (a long shot, I grant you), then he could be a very valuable player going forward, especially with his ability on the basepaths.

lorecore, agree on AEC. Crazy talk. Batsh8t crazy talk.

Doc: ""In all honesty, I’m proud of the fact that I made it back and that a lot of guys my age could be at home, could be not pitching, could never pitch again. I feel like I beat some of those odds and that’s what I look at. I woke up this morning and it’s like Christmas morning getting to pitch again after sitting out and watching the team and not being a part of it. It’s a completely different thrill to be able to go out there and pitch now. I want to do a better job for us."

That is probably the most depressing quote from a player I've heard in awhile. I cringe at the thought of Roy Halladay uttering those words about his profession. I've heard less sad words spoken to 7th graders who get cut from their grade school baseball team.

Doc Halliday is one of my favorite pitchers of all time...he's right up there with Cole Hammels and Clifford Lee IMHO.

C. Hernandez is making a case for himself as a utility middle infielder but the problem is that he doens't play SS. If he did and even did so just adequately, he would be an okay bench player. Just don't know how you can carry both C. Hernandez and Galvis though on a 5-man bench in the NL.

Can we stop with this, MG? This isn't even a close decision. Hernandez hit up a storm at AAA; Galvis hasn't. Hernandez is fast; Galvis isn't.

Galvis has shown to be a fringe major leaguer who will probably hit .230-.240 for his career, while Hernandez could hit .290 with slightly less home run power and considerably better greater XBH potential.

Michael Martinez broke his foot in spring training last year and it hasn't affected his performance at all ;-)

Rollins walked 16 times in his last 25 games in sept with a .913 OPS - but sure, lets pretend that changing managers is the reason why a MLB player has a 20 game fluctuation of his stats.

This one's easy, I'm sorry to say - let Doc go. The Phillies must get younger and they can't get younger by spending big on older players. Great memories though - October 6, 2010 may be the greatest single game performance ever by a Phillie. Right up there with four home runs by Mike Schmidt on April 17, 1976.

Mini Mart Splits:

Pre-Injury: .540 OPS (48 OPS+)
Post-Injury: .433 OPS (17 OPS+)


There's a chance Roy feels he owes the Phils something - in terms of his personality, he strikes me as the kind of guy who wants to prove he can get back here, and feels bad about how things have gone. He's certainly espoused love for the organization and how he's been treated. As such, I'd have no issues signing him to a low-base, heavily incentivized contract to see where he is come Spring. My gut tells me he might not have much left and improvements will be marginal. I would hate to see him regain velocity or (more importantly) control (such that he could reinvent himself as a better Moyer), and showing it off on another team. Not if he really wants to stay. Not if he'd take a lower-dollar deal. And not in this SP-bereft FA market. But I would not fork over big guaranteed dollars for the guy at this point. No way.

@NEPP, exactly. He still sucks :)

I think both Galvis and Cesar make the team next year.


backup C
backup SS (i think Galvis)

That leaves two utility spots. The best shot for Cesar in my mind is to prove he can outperform mayberry in CF(which should be cake). Then you have a room for a 25th man who should be a pure hitter with no regard for his defense. The bench is way too weak as is.

lorecore, I think they may bring Frandsen back too.

If Frandsen or Mayberry come back, Cesar will be DFA'd. Unless they get granted a 4th Option year for him, but I haven't heard if that is happening or not yet.

lore, if the bench is what you speculate,

backup C
backup SS (i think Galvis)"

and I agree that the backup SS is probably Galvis, then if we assume that the backup catcher will not be used as a pinch hitter (or rarely), if the last two guys on the bench are


then is that a bench that has a power bat on it if needed, and is having said power bat a requirement in leiu of Versatility™?

Frandsen is getting'd probably make more sense to keep Cesar around over him or Mayberry.

... with the caveat that anyone who (still) thinks the Phillies can get Stanton is DQ'd from even being considered as conversation.

See, r00b? You're DQ'd from the conversation!

@NEPP...aren't they (and we) all getting older, at the same pace in fact?

Frandsen is having a pretty mediocre season and he will be 32 next year.

Also, if you look at his career profile, his 200 PA in 2012 look more like an aberration than anything. Given that he's not a good defensive 3B or 2B either, it might make a bit more sense to go with the young and hopefully improving Cesar Hernandez...a guy who does profile as a decent utility IF with good speed and the ability to hit for average.

There's no reason you can't keep both Frandsen & Cesar. If Cesar can play the OF, you don't really need the traditional 2 OF/2 IF/1 catcher National League bench.

It's not like I'm in love with Kevin Frandsen, but he does kill LHP & we've got a couple of starting infielders who are completely hapless against LHP and are sure to see a ton of LOOGYs. Of course, if Sandberg adheres to Cholly's view that you can absolutely never pinch-hit for Utley or Howard, then that would largely diminish the value of a bench player whose only plus skill is the ability to hit LHP.

NEPP, I don't argue that POV. What I am asking is whether they'll want to keep a power bat on the bench over their prized Versatility™?

This team has lots of holes, and they'll need to fix the bullpen next season, though Diekman, Rosenberg and Martin do give some hope that a couple of young, inexpensive arms might help. It remains to be seen what Bastardo will do without whatever PEDs he was using.

Also, they only have two reliable SP coming back in Hamels and Lee.

I'm not sure they're going to spend any decent money on bench bats and may just go with the young guys.

And the elephant in the room - as it has been the last two seasons - will be what they can expect from Ryan Howard.

bap: the reason you can't keep both is that Cesar and Frandsen are pretty crappy players overall, at least in Cesar's current phase of his career.

Ruf is your RH hitter off the bench. And if he's starting, then they need to acquire a similarly skilled corner OF for the bench, not Cesar/Frandsen.

The sad/pathetic thing about Frandsen and his usage this year...he's been on the roster all season and healthy as far as I can recall. Despite this, he has just 80 PA against LHP. There is almost no excuse for that.

You'd think between his ability to sub out 1B, 2B, and 3B, he'd have gotten more than 22 GS against LHP and 40 appearances total.

I, for one, see something positive in Doc's performance. He pitched pretty well for four innings, had good movement on his pitches, and threw 60% strikes. Not vintage Doc, but some hopeful signs.

I would be willing to give Doc a winter, spring training, and another half season for further healing and conditioning and to get his mechanics right. If the choice is between Kendrick and Doc for a spot in the rotation, the decision is easy.

The decision is also easy because next year's team isn't going anywhere anyway.

Though I suppose he only got 68 PA against LHP last year too...and just 17 GS.

That shows just how little effect having him around really means. Given his defense, you are taking a hit every time you start him and given his limitations against RHP (other than last year's SSS), he's hurts you there too.

They can expect that Howard will show up for Spring Training in the best shape of any creatures' ability to show up for anything ever in any known or imaginary universe. At least.

I vote for keeping Hernandez & Galvis. As much as I like Frandsen, he's not consistent enough a hitter to justify his relative uselessness in the field.

cesar and freddie
a gazillion times better
than mini-mart/mac

On Halladay: Right now, as he is, he is our 3rd best starter since the break. Better than Kendrick, Martin, and Lannan. So, the '14 rotation looks like:

Roy could be a #5 on this rotation if he is inexpensive and has a good Fall and Spring Training.

1 year contract, league minimum base with health and performance incentives based on WHIP. Anything other than that isnt really worth considering at all. At this point, Halladay is a longshot lottery ticket as a servicable 5th starter at best.

A couple ways to get Frandsen the ABs necessary to make his ability to hit LHP worthwhile enough to keep him around:

1. Engage a full-time platoon at 1B so he starts against every single LHP there

2. Use a full-time platoon at 3B to take advantage of both his and Asche's splits against LH and RH pitching respectively.

3. Mix and match platoons and have him get regular starts at 1B, 2B, and 3B against LHP while resting Howard and Utley regularly (they'll need it) and giving Asche the day off too occasionally.

The problem with these ideas is that platoons never work out as smoothly as you want them to and Frandsen hurts you defensively at 2B and 3B. Also, while he hits LHP well, he is easily neutralized by a RH reliever and platoons, by definition, shorten your bench from a flexibility standpoint.

Also, ideally, if I were going to platoon Howard at 1B, I'd use Ruf for that and give him every start against LHP at 1B and start him in LF otherwise...kinda how the Cardinals use Allen Craig the last couple years.

What about Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez? You have to pencil him in somewhere.

Also, ideally, if I were going to platoon Howard at 1B, I'd use Ruf for that and give him every start against LHP at 1B and start him in LF otherwise ...

Agreed. And I WOULD platoon Howard. The notion that a player making a certain amount of money must play every day because he's making said certain amount of money is ridiculous. I'm a Howard fan, but he has never shown any ability to make the adjustments necessary to hit LHP. Working a strict platoon would benefit both Ryan's numbers, & health.

Why in the world would a rebuilding team want to roll the dice with a 37 year old junk baller? Might as well be Pettibone and/or a series of other young suspects.

Anthony hits it on the nose.

I'd rather watch Pettibone pitch as the 5th starter and do it earning the league minimum then Halladay at 37 earning much more then that.

For 2013 anyway, Pettibone was clearly better then Doc. Of course that's not saying much either. Doc has been brutal. But until Pettibone ran into his physical ailment, he was solid. Not great but solid. Which is what you need out of a 5th starter.

I think the tougher call is actually Kendrick.

And why are we still dogging Revere? People might forget but before he got hurt he was CLEARLY the best offensive player on the team for a month straight. Was doing exactly what he was acquired to do. He's young and he's cheap. And because he's young, maybe he can still improve in the OF. Players do get better in the big leagues, you know. They aren't all finished products once they get to the bigs.

" I'm a Howard fan, but he has never shown any ability to make the adjustments necessary to hit LHP."

GTown, actually, Howard's OPS against LHP did rise in 2010 (.826) from it's 2009 (.653) level. Other than that aberration, you are correct. Earlier this week I posted his yearly OPS against LHP, and he used to be a beast. For some reason, he just doesn't seem to have been able to make an adjustment.

My question is: Did he do something different in 2010 against LHP that caused that - make and adjustment - or was that an anomaly attributable to mere luck/chance?

"I'd rather watch Pettibone pitch as the 5th starter and do it earning the league minimum..."

denny, I have never understood fans' obsessions with what players earn.

I am on record that I DGAS what players or owners make. I only want to see a good product on the field.

Your post assumes three things:

One, that Halladay is GOING to earn much more than that, two, that Pettibone can come back and pitch well after injury, and three, that Halladay cannot.

IMHO, the jury is still out on Halladay and his ability to become some semblance of his former self. If he can get to 80 - 90%, he'll be better than Pettibone, IMHO.

But that still begs the question that derekcarstairs and Anthony raised above:

If the 2014 Phillies can't contend and aren't going anywhere, what's the point in signing (that is, rolling the dice) Halladay in the first place.

If Doc is showing that he just can't cut it anymore, then it's tome. It's that simple. All you have to do is look at Lefty's last days here. So terrible. And there's no reason to re-live that again.

But I wouldn't just cut him loose. I would sign him to a very club-friendly deal with an invite to ST. He can do whatever he does in the off-season to get stronger. If he shows in ST that that can consistantly hit 90-91 with improved command, then I rip up his deal and re-do it. If not so be it.

What would we consider a successful season for the Phillies this year, given all the injuries and new manager?
Some might say .500 ball by hte end of the season will prove a success for the new manager; but is that reasonable to assume possible? If the Phillies pull off a miracle and win the next ten games they are playing .500 ball for the season....nearly impossible considering
the top percentage team in baseball is Atlanta .603 and ten wins out of ten is 1.000 percentage....and even if that miracle occurs there are at that point then still nin e games remaining in the Phillies schedule of which they may lose only four games to stay above .500....doing the math then the Phillies have to win 15 out of the remaiing 19 unprecedented .789 clip that no team has been able to accomplish in any stretch this season and would rank among the top performing teams of all time!
Of course we can dream, and although not within the realm of expected reality, still a possibility; and if it could happen, would turn the league on it's ear looking toward a team from Philly next year that could very well be in the World Series....or so we can dream as we always do!

awh: The more one player makes means the less another player will make. This should not have to be explained everytime someone criticizes a player transaction by citing their salary.

"The more one player makes means the less another player will make."

lore, true, but what's your point.

Your post assumes the Phillies will be wise enough to spend any savings [ i.e. Pettibone at league minimum vs. Halladay ] wisely.

Similarly, one could postulate that the original Rollins (2006-'10, '11 option) and Utley (2007-'13) contracts (both team-friendly, no?) allowed the Phillies to spend money on other players.

In light of that assumption, I give you these names, and you can tell me how much value their contracts provided, and the relative genius of the FO in awarding them:

Romero (extension)
Moyer (extension)

"The Phils either have to keep him at $20 million because of his vesting option, or decline the option and be banned from pursuing him in FA."

The single dumbest assertion on this site.


The salary matters a lot because the Phils don't have that much to spend this offseason with their commitments next season already & what will almost certainly be a decline in payroll as gate revenues projections are likely to drop at a good clip.

awh: do we really need to debate this? Its a fundamental fact. The more money available to spend is a good thing. Yes it can be spent unwisely, but that doesn't change the fact.

MG, like lorecore, you assume any "savings" would be spent wisely.

I'm glad to know both of you have such confidence in r00b and the FOols.

remember - if attendance goes down by 10-15K per game - that means lost revenue that could be thrown into the pot.

season tickets, parking, food, phillies paraphernalia

it all adds up or in this case, will subtract from an ailing bottom line...

less money for talent or internal improvements.

lore, I never disagreed with that point.

Go back a re-read my post.

I merely stated that denny's focus on Pettibone's earning the league minimum was misguided, because it assumed that Pettibone was, among other things, going to pitch well next season.

I put it to you that if Pettibone craps the bed next season that you, MG and denny WGAS what Pettibone is earning.

Is spending them on Halladay a wise decision?

Halladay was far and away my favorite Phils' pitcher to watch in '10 and '11. Saying a lot too since I was a huge Schilling fan and he was one of the few guys that I would try to get down to watch live at the Vet.

When he was really on, he simply was a higher-caliber pitcher than Lee or Hamels at their best.

awh: where do i assume that? I specifically stated that I do not assume that:

"Yes it can be spent unwisely"

For someone whose favorite post is insult people's "reading comprehension" skills, you sure are setting me up to do the same to you.

Your argument is terrible. By spending previous money unwisely, you conclude that the value of future money has become worthless.

awh: i never once offered my opinion on Pettibone vs Halladay. I specifically took your quote that questioned why others care about what players make, and answered it for you.

On the actual subject, my opinion on Halladay is that they should not re-sign him. There are a lot of reasons why, but the #1 thing to me is that this team has too many resources tied up in players with extremely questionable futures to add another one, who arguably would be the most questionable of all.

I do think the Phils are going to sign another FA starter this offseason. Depends on how the market shakes out though with it likely being a Lannan-type back-end rotation guy on a pretty modest deal.

Still think Amaro is going to go really hard after a veteran FA right-handed bat either at C or a corner OF position.

lore, I deserve the reading comprehension hit.

But so do you, because I never stated that the value of future money was worthless because previous money was spent unwisely.

Once again, just for you:

Focusing on a marginal, coming-off-of-injury pitcher's salary next season is focusing on the wrong thing.

you equated extra money to Adam Eaton. If thats not calling money worthless, i don't know what is.

I thought Doc wanted to pitch for a contender.

you equated extra money to Adam Eaton. If thats not calling money worthless, i don't know what is.

Michael Martinez at minimum wage? And not the MLB minimum, the Federal minimum.

"Focusing on a marginal, coming-off-of-injury pitcher's salary next season is focusing on the wrong thing."

I'm glad you get that now because, in the past, you didn't. You were the one who told us that bringing in Delmon Young was a perfectly fine, low-risk move because we weren't paying him very much. And other posters kept responding that you were completely missing the point by focusing on his low salary. The salient point was not his salary; it was that he would be taking the job of a better player & would force us to put a bad player in RF during however long the "trial period" lasted.

Well, it turned out that trial period lasted more than 3 months -- and that was for a personally unlikable journeyman with no ties to the organization. If Delmon Young was allowed to take the place of a better player for 3 full months, imagine how much rope they'll give to Roy Halladay.

For the record, I am fine with making a long-term commitment to Matt Holliday.

"Michael Martinez at minimum wage? And not the MLB minimum, the Federal minimum."

funnier still!

More than 2 hours in the middle of the afternoon without a single post? That must be a new Beerleaguer record -- and a depressing one at that.

After Doc last night and with KK today, a comment from to lighten the mood (or not):

I like this Kendrick or Halladay argument. It's kind of like saying, "I'd rather have a swift kick to the groin than a poke in the eye."

I'd been planning on making the point I make below a lot earlier today, but one of my clients decided he was reconsidering the merits of a plea bargain at the last minute. You were a young attorney once, I'm sure, and can remember how those types of wrenches throw off an entire afternoon.

At any rate, I made this point in the previous game thread, while thinking aloud about the possibilities Cesar Hernandez opens up for bench construction if he can become a passable defender in the OF:
--Cesar Hernandez [Back-up CF; second back-up corner OF; second utility IF; pinch runner]
--Freddy Galvis [Back-up SS; first utility IF; universal defensive caddy]
--Darin Ruf [Howard platoonmate; interleague DH; first back-up corner OF; RHB bench bat]
--??? [LHB bench bat(?); interleague DH(?); other needs to be filled(?)]
--Back-up C

Such a bench does have a couple of things going for it. Firstly, it's cheap: Three of the bench would be making the league minimum, and potentially a fourth would be if one of the farmhands was pegged as the back-up C. In an off-season where there're many holes to fill and relatively few dollars, it'd be nice to be able to not have to pay arbitration prices. It also has real defensive depth, which has been lacking this season: Two premium positions could be counted on for plus defense (2B and SS) and the hot corners for league-average (in the event that Galvis and/or Hernandez can be taught 3B this winter). The outfield would remain a work in progress, as the less that is talked about Ruf's corner OF defense the better.

The one glaring need for such a LHB bench bat. I imagine someone like Jason Kubel would fill such a role, as his skill-set and price are what you're looking for. (As he's going to be getting bench bat money in the hopes of a bounceback from someone after the horrific year he's had.) Another OF who's an intriguing guy to take a flyer on for the role would be Grady Sizemore, who might just be able to get into the everyday order if he's back to some semblence of who he once was. More will shake loose as the hot stove season gets underway.

All of this, of course, also assumes that the Phils sign another corner OF bat this off-season. If they don't, Ruf gets slotted into a corner and you need both a RHB and LHB bench bat, and at which point Mayberry should just be tendered. If the Phils opt to pick-up a CF and corner OF -- such as signing David DeJesus and Corey Hart -- then Ben Revere fills the ??? slot and everything goes into a cocked hat as far as speculation goes.

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