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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

Comments

awh: "I guess you think he should be expecting to fail."

No, I would love for Doc to regain greatness, but I don't think the Phillies should spend $14M of their self imposed budget on the prayer that it happens - as you are suggesting they do.

You say "1-2 more rehab starts." Where, exactly, with what team, would the second (his fourth) rehab start be exactly? Won't all the minor league teams be done for the season by then?

Moyer next lost his command and why the analogy doesn't hold. He career BB/9 in 5 years in Philly was a paltry 2.5 which is actually slightly below his career norm (2.6).

Moyer didn't have anything on his pitches but he had a couple of offspeed pitches he mixed and matched with very good command most nights.

***Nine out of 10 times, when a pitcher loses his velocity, movement and command, he's done.***

More like 99 out of 100 but the point is the same.

***Won't all the minor league teams be done for the season by then? ***

The Phillies season doesn't end until Sept 29th...pretty sure they're a minor league team.

I have no medical expertise, so this is an honest question: should we be making grand pronouncements on Halladay two rehab starts after shoulder surgery?

Did people really believe he'd be ready in two starts? I mean, I think we all agree that the medical staff is not the best. So did everyone really trust them when they said he'd be ready right away?

I guess I'm just wondering why it's OK, with guys like Tyler Cloyd, to 'give them a shot' because the season's over- but it isn't OK to give Halladay more than 2 rehab starts to declare his HOF career over. Sure, it isn't likely that he's going to gain everything back- but wouldn't it be managerial malpractice NOT to find out? What FA would have a higher ceiling in the starting rotation next year?

They might as well give Halladay 5 starts in September to see if he has anything left.

I would keep my expectations in check of course.

iceman: I'm all for Doc getting a shot, but he'd have to look unhittable for me to even consider a QO.

Andy -- Halladay could make 2 more rehab starts on normal rest if the Phillies pitched him at Lehigh Valley. Iron Pigs' season ends on Sept. 2.

I don't see Halladay pitching in a Phils uniform next year no matter what happens. How many times has he said the only reason he plays is to win a World Series? It's why he wanted to come to Philly and why he extended his contract to stay, because the Phils were perennial contenders back then. Next year they're bringing back an aging core where everything has to go right to be in contention. How often does everything go right?

Quite honestly, there IS an easy answer with Halladay's Phillies future. In fact, it's a complete no-brainer that, for whatever reason, Phillies fans refuse to accept. It would be insane to re-sign him.

Ice~ I agree, Halliday deserves to be given whatever is needed. They need to make some important decisions about the rotation. It's obvious the Cloyd just doesn't throw hard enough to be effective at this level. KK Doesn't throw hard either and he's hit and miss.

If Doc can't go, then they need to bring at leat 2 quality starters in the off-season, (Gonzo notwithstanding as we don't know what's up with him), along with the offensive pieces they need. Cholly finally said he wasn't given what was needed the last 2 years. But we already knew that, didn't we? So, once again we'll be left to wonder what'll be done. I'm hoping that RAJ will do the right things, but as we've seen the last 2 years, that may be wishful thinking.

The more I read, the more I think Cholly finally had enough.

Seems he's outta here, being as he wants to win.

It would be insane to offer a John Lannan type deal to Roy Halladay?

Haven't we learned what happens when you hold on to aging players too long? A 37-year-old Roy Halladay, coming off of surgery to repair a torn labrum (despite how hard they tried to minimize the injury) is not someone I want to see re-signed.

Doc: "I’m not playing for money," he said Tuesday. "I’m not playing for anything else. If I have a situation where I have a chance to win, I might pay them."

I'll believe that when I see it. I find it hard to believe he'll accept the league minimum to go to the favorites to win the 2014 World Series.

Rube is waiting for a call back from Dice-K's agent :)

RE: Halladay. I completely agree with BAP. Unless he looks like Sandy Koufax when he's done rehab, there's no freaking way I want to invest $6mil-$14mil(whatever it may be) in hopes that Doc gets his stuff back. It's part and parcel of what is wrong with this franchise.

Odd that after they won the WFC, Gillick(?)/Amaro(?) said something to the effect of not holding on to players for "sentimental" reasons. I wish he really believed that.

Halladay was RAJ's white whale. If his arm is still physically attached, I can see Rube making him some type of offer.

Sil, which arm? Do you think Rube cares if it's the pitching arm?

Doc could become irradiated, grow a third arm, and Rube will offer $30M over 2 years.

I have the same feeling about Halladay that I had about Carlton at the end of his career. Denial that they were through until the overwhelming evidence said otherwise.
Like a world class runner who sustains a couple of injuries and can never make it back to the top Halladay will try to fake it for a while but I think he is done.

I was fully ready to DFA Doc earlier. But that's when the Phillies hadn't yet soiled the bed for the season. Now? Bring him up and have him throw at least 100 pitches every five days no matter what the result. As long as he can reach the catcher, he keeps throwing.

He's no longer playing for money? He wants to go to a winner? I think it's time to remind Saint Doc that he's a huge reason this team stinks right now. If his salary hadn't been 20 million dollars of dead money for the last two seasons, the team might have been able to actually have a bullpen or another starter and an outfielder who didn't suck.

I love these guys who basically steal money, then complain they're not on a winner. Doc was worth more than 20 million when he was healthy. But for the last two seasons, the Phils have been paying him to rehab/suck alternately.

aksmith has entered his cut_fastball phase.

"No, I would love for Doc to regain greatness, but I don't think the Phillies should spend $14M of their self imposed budget on the prayer that it happens - as you are suggesting they do."


LorE, suggest what? Where did I suggest that?


Here's what my original post on the subject stated:

"Colonel, $2 million?

that's just pure speculation at this point. The guy has had 2 rehab starts, his doctor has told him the velocity will come, and he's got a lot of work to do.

Frankly, we don't know what he's going to look like 30 days from now.

BUT, IF he's able to go 6-7 IP and looks good - that is, his velocity improves and he can locate and command, then he could easily get a one-year deal like Haren's, which would equal a QO.

OTOH, if he doesn't improve and looks like sh8t, he may wind up like Brandon Webb.

Way to early to tell, and thus futile to speculate."

All I posted is that it's too early to tell with Halladay, despite the cacophony from the medical experts on this site who are staking out a position right now, willing to take their cahnces of being wrong, only with the gleeful intent of being able to post:

"See, I told you so".

"I have no medical expertise, so this is an honest question: should we be making grand pronouncements on Halladay two rehab starts after shoulder surgery?"


Iceman, in a word, "No".

But see my post above. It doesn't stop some here.

I was thinking last night that the best thing that could happen with Michael Young would be for him to go on a week long tear. Hit about a half dozen homers and just smack the ball all around the field.

That way, Rube could actually get something for him. But then it occurred to me that if Young did that, Rube would probably re-sign him to a two year extension. So, there really is no winning at this point. You can only count on the bad stuff when your GM is a fool.

Halladay is struggling to get out hitters at A ball so far. - MG
-
From last night's game log:

Henrry Rosario grounds out
Ulises Montilla called out on strikes.
Austin Meadows lines out
Reese McGuire grounds out
Adam Landecker grounds out

Nick Buckner singles
Trae Arbet grounds into a force out
Candon Myles singles
Candon Myles picked off at 1st
Maximo Rivera grounds out
Henrry Rosario grounds out
Ulises Montilla pops out

Austin Meadows walks.
Reese McGuire grounds into a double play
Adam Landecker singles
Nick Buckner strikes out swinging.
Trae Arbet triples
Candon Myles reaches on a fielder's choice
Maximo Rivera flies out
Henrry Rosario bunt grounds out to pitcher

Ulises Montilla homers
Austin Meadows walks.
Reese McGuire singles
Adam Landecker walks.
Nick Buckner reaches on a fielder's choice
Trae Arbet strikes out swinging.
Candon Myles strikes out swinging.

I'm reading a lot of Halladay hyperbole today, the fact is he just made his second rehab start start after shoulder surgery. It's way too early to judge anything.


"I guess I'm just wondering why it's OK, with guys like Tyler Cloyd, to 'give them a shot' because the season's over- but it isn't OK to give Halladay more than 2 rehab starts to declare his HOF career over. "


Iceman, stop making sense. You'll be attacked by some here.

awh: so if doc looks good as you describe, do you think the Phillies should or shouldn't make him a QO?

I took your post as suggesting they should. I disagree.

"It would be insane to offer a John Lannan type deal to Roy Halladay?"

Well, for one thing, you won't get him on a John Lannan type deal ($2.5M), so it's a dumb premise. But, even if you could, it would still be insane. Because, once you sign him, you've committed to using him. And he hasn't been a major league caliber pitcher for nearly 2 seasons.

"You can only count on the bad stuff when your GM is a fool."


Smitty, minor correction:

Just as his name is spelled "r00b", his title should be spelled "f00l".

Or "fOOl", whichever you prefer.

"I took your post as suggesting they should."


Hmmm, I am not a reading comprehension coach. You're on your own.

***And he hasn't been a major league caliber pitcher for nearly 2 seasons.***

Well, the Phillies have been a major league caliber team in nearly 2 seasons either so he'd likely fit right in.

To sum up this thread: "Dump 'em all for nothing and it doesn't matter who replaces them."

I apologize for interjecting an unemotional post here, but one might logically conclude that we haven't yet gathered enough evidence to say that Halladay's career is finished.

awh: If doc looks good as you described, do you think the Phillies should or shouldn't make him a QO?

I love those mornings when awh writes 750 posts challenging those who say we should do X, and then tells those same posters they have a "reading comprehension problem" when they interpret his posts to mean that we should NOT do X.

despite the cacophony from the medical experts on this site who are staking out a position right now, willing to take their cahnces of being wrong, only with the gleeful intent of being able to post: "See, I told you so". - awh

Funny :) I thought this was the primary purpose of Beerleaguer.

lore, my position on Halladay is simple:

Wait and see.

That's what "Way to early to tell, and thus futile to speculate." means.


However, whether he should get a QO depends not on whether he looks good, but on "how good" he looks.

If he's hitting 90-92 consistently by the end of the season and getting hitters out at a precipitous rate, then a decision would need to be made.

If he only looks like he can be an average MLB starter - by that I mean "Kendrick-ish", then he's not worth $13 - 14 MM.

Lastly, your post presumptively assumes Halladay would accept a QO. But how can we be sure.

IF, IF , IF he does look good by the end of the season, it's possible another team is willing to sign him. If it's Toronto trying to get him back for a swansong, they may not even have to surrender their pick if they sign him. Right now the Giants and Cubs wouldn't have to either.

Would he go to those teams? WTH knows, but the Giants are won the WS last season, so they may be able to re-tool fairly easily.

Point, just because he receives a QO doesn't mean he'd take it.

I guess if Doc is done at the end of the season, the troll won't post about shirtless pix of him :)

Doc's premise seems to be that good command and ball movement will compensate for lost velocity. So how is that pinpoint control been working out for him lately? He walks as many as he strikes out these days.

bap, now you're just being your old douche self.

Seriously. Go bake your poodle.

There is an answer which is both easy & correct: regardless of what Halladay does over the next 5-6 weeks, his career in Philadelphia should be over. And if he truly wishes to play for a winner before his career in MLB is over, Halladay won't even consider re-signing w/ the Phillies.

"I apologize for interjecting an unemotional post here, but one might logically conclude that we haven't yet gathered enough evidence to say that Halladay's career is finished."


clout, the mental masturbation that some get here from being able to post anonymously on an internet site that they think "X" will happen and then are subsequently correct in their premature assessment is hysterical.

The "See, I told you so" crowd does what they do because it doesn't cost them anything if they're wrong. But the orgasmic mental jollies they must get by being able to crow that they were correct about something...

"I’ve played a long time. I’m not playing for money," he said Tuesday. "I’m not playing for anything else. If I have a situation where I have a chance to win, I might pay them." - Roy Halladay
-
Can he pay John Middleton to buyout David Montgomery? That might help.

awh: Everyone understands all those "if" scenarios exist. After thinking about all of those scenarios and their likelihood of happening, I predict that the Phils should not give Doc a QO.

Since you don't have a prediction, please allow those who do to share them with each other without interuppting with the obvious "well, we don't know that for sure!" comment (only in about 500 more words).

awh stop making sense. BL posters don't like when people make sense.

RedBurb, people are entitled to their opinions. Should they choose to, they're also entitled to look foolish.


Gtown, I'm thinking the same.

"awh: Everyone understands all those "if" scenarios exist."


lore, this is BL. Everyone does not.

Heck, some people here even have reading comprehension problems.

Smitty saying that Doc was the reason the team couldn't use any funds on the bullpen or bench is pretty funny.

It's not Lee's $21.5 mil in 2012 or $25 mil in 2013, or Hamels' $19.5 mil in 2013 or Howard's $20 mil in 2012 and 2013. Or a combination of both. It is SPECIFICALLY Halladay's $20 million.

But then again this is the same poster who said he wanted to DFA Halladay and that Halladay's 2010 and 2011 didn't justify his contract. Bed Beard is right, you have entered cut_fastball territory.

awh: "the mental masturbation that some get here from being able to post anonymously on an internet site that they think "X" will happen"

OK fine, lets all sit around and talk about how the Phillies got 3-hit last night and what Roy Halladay's box score read. Thrilling conversation that would be.

Beer Leaguer "The Douchiest Place on Earth". Just add that little trade mark thing that I already forget how to do.

If Doc is serious with his comments about wanting to win and win only, the decision should be pretty easy: he won't be with the Phillies in 2014.

"Heck, some people here even have reading comprehension problems."

No tengo problema con comprehension de lectura. Tengo problema con bateo y fideo pero comprendo el valor de versatilidad.

It is crazy how quickly a guy's game can fall off in baseball. At this point, is Roy anything more than a 5 (maybe 4)? If so, then he most likely won't be pitching in the playoffs anyway. His chances were 2010 and 2011. He is done now

IF Ryne Sandberg is mean to Jroll will he want to leave?

I think awh's point is that a prediction after two rehab starts coming off of shoulder surgery is a futile exercise of mental masturbation. I don't want to speak for him, though.

With the notable exception of BedBeard, most of the people predicting certain doom for Halladay have been predicting doom for the team since 2008. I don't think they know anything for certain any more than I, or anyone else for that matter, knows about how he will progress the next few weeks. It's just very easy to predict the worst and then act like you knew it was going to happen all along. It's a defense mechanism for weak-minded people.

lore- no, I don't think they should make him a qualifying offer. I don't think that's what it will take to get him though.

"Did people really believe he'd be ready in two starts? I mean, I think we all agree that the medical staff is not the best. So did everyone really trust them when they said he'd be ready right away?"

Amaro originally thought that 2 weeks ago whenhe publicly stated it and I imagine the Phils FO thought likewise.

How dare Sandberg accurately describe Rollins issues?!?

Rollins has been absolutely terrible for the past 2 months now.

It's just conjecture. Nothing more. Not much else to talk about right now.

"With the notable exception of BedBeard, most of the people predicting certain doom for Halladay have been predicting doom for the team since 2008."

BS. Go back and look at the opening day predictions from '09-'12.

Rollins should be batting 7th or 8th right now, like the light hitting shortstop he currently is.

This would be a great time for Sandberg to pull out the "batting the pitcher 8th" thing and hit Rollins 9th. See what happens.

Rube should find out what amount Doc is willing to pay to be on a championship caliber team and go over the salary cap by that amount to field that team.

MG- those predictions are as useless as your many conspiracy theories. Many made one prediction in March and then complained and taunted optimists the rest of the year. The biggest example of this was in 2011 when anyone that thought the team could win 100 games was roundly mocked.

We don't need to rehash this. Most of us here were along for the ride.

I'm a huge Doc fan but I'm not convinced he'll ever be close to the pitcher he was through 2011. Two years of back and shoulder problems that culminated in shoulder surgery just may signify the end. I remember when Lefty first tore his rotator cuff. Carlton had just won his 4th Cy Young two years before that happened. At the time he was considered the best conditioned athlete in baseball even though he was in his late 30's. The three years after his surgery he went 16-36 for five different teams and had an ERA just under 5 before calling it quits to one of the greatest pitching careers in baseball history.

I know surgical procedures are much better and far less intrusive than they were 30 years ago, and if anybody has the work ethic and heart to pull it off it's Doc. I'm rooting for him but I can't say I'm confident he'll ever resemble the pitcher who was lights out in 2010 & 11 Greatness is most likely behind Doc. Whether he can be a capable pitcher or not is probably the more applicable question.

I have no dog in the Roy Halladay fight. I'd probably sign him for <<$5mm on a 1-year, incentive-laden deal, but others have stated he'll get more.

Regardless, if this "argument" is my "territory", this site is loopier that I first imagined.

Whatever.

This may be ridiculous, but if I were Doc, I'd try to resign with the Phillies and have a clause in my contract that if the team is not at a certain record by the trade deadline, r00b has to negotiate deals to trade him to a contending team. If he's serious about paying to be with a contender, he can use that leverage with both r00b - who adores him and would be the only one to even consider something like this - and the potential team.

In other baseball news, this is fun: http://www.baseballnation.com/2013/8/21/4644346/most-surprising-players-in-baseball-worst-best-florimon

Posted by: jbird |

Rube should find out what amount Doc is willing to pay to be on a championship caliber team and go over the salary cap by that amount to field that team.

Classic, thanks for the laughs

"It's a defense mechanism for weak-minded people."


This.

Any news on the Gonzalez signing, not signing? Haven't heard anything in weeks.

Thanks, I'll hang up and listen.

"This would be a great time for Sandberg to pull out the "batting the pitcher 8th" thing and hit Rollins 9th. See what happens."


jbird, I agree. I was actually thinking about posting a lineup like that last night, but work sidetracked me.

2014 Phils when healthy:

Revere
Utley
Ruf - LF
Howard (because they won't hit him anywhere else)
Brown - RF (because they won't hit him anywhere else
Chooch (if he's back)
Asche (if he's manning 3B)
P
JRoll

@Dylan, with Doc's cash infusion, the Phils could spend like the Dodgers.

This, however, would be my lineup:

Revere
Chooch
Utley
Brown - RF (because they'll never split all the LHH)
Ruf - LF
Howard (yes, you read it here first)
Asche
P
JRoll

" Go back and look at the opening day predictions from '09-'12. "

Funny, I was just looking at the 2013 predictions. Interesting fact: the people who are always on here calling other people fools and morons were invariably dead wrong, whereas the people who generally just talk about the team (Jack, bap, sophist) were right.

awh: your lineup is not right. we will just have to wait and see.

Iceman - They are a record (in time) of what people collectively thought on the site and it was far from collective 'doom and gloom.'

In fact, it was the exact opposite of that.

LorecorE: Just fyi, I liked it better when I could read your name as "Iorecore" because I could imagine - despite the spelling - that you were into some kind of weird Winnie the Pooh hardcore band.

I had 86 wins and was dead wrong. Lucky at this pace to win 72-73 games.

The pessimists were predicting that the team would remain mediocre all season. The optimists were holding out hope for a 2nd half run and a playoff berth. As it turns out, the Phillies completely tanked, so the pessimists were just as wrong as the optimists. No one predicted the Phillies would finish 15 games under .500

From the "And you think it couldn't be worse?" files:

Last four appearances, 7.1 IP, 19 hits, 5 homers, 15 earned runs, 19.01 ERA. Let's put our hands together and give a big, Beerleaguer welcome to the one, the only, Mr. Joe Blanton!

Edmundo, holy crap!!!

Much more than anything else, Doc's precipitous decline in 2012 was responsible for the Phillies becoming a mediocre team. Doc was irreplaceable.

Welcome Roger B. Seeya MiniMart.

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/phillies-sign-roger-bernadina.html

Another no hit, no glove outfielder. Just what we need. At least it got rid of MiniMart.

Fvck You, Ruben Amaro Jr.

Phillies sign Roger Bernadina:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2013/08/phillies-sign-roger-bernadina.html

OK signing. Ok idea to sign a guy like this with hopes that he can be your fifth outfielder out of spring training next season, or become someone you trade in ST. Decent utility. Should be someone who replaces Ruf or Brown late.

Trivia. He's the second Phillie in history from Curaçao. Name the other.

I'm not as confident in this one, but I'll stay consistent for BL's sake and say that Roger Bernidina is better than John Mayberry.

The Phillies signing these Wells and Bernadina types really speaks to the talent on this team. I wish Revere was back because I could at least get excited to watch an OF of him, Brown and Ruf.

At least Bernadina can catch. That's more than Laynce Nix or Mini-Mart offered us.

Well, at least Mini Mart is gone again...small silver lining.

You naive chumps. You really think you've seen the last of me? I've been up and down more often than a $10 hooker!

Could Leandro Castro, Cesar Hernandez or Tyson Gillies put up a slash line of .178/.247/.270 as a 5th OF?

This Bernadina signing is part of a larger plan. Look for him, Casper Wells and Luis Garcia to be moved in the offseason for a right handed power bat and some high upside prospects.

I think we all know that the odds of John McDonald being hit by a bus or tripping down a flight of stairs just went up sharply. Mini Mart will be back soon enough...its just a matter of how it happens?

Looks like it's contagious:

"The Braves have claimed infielder Elliot Johnson off release waivers from the Royals...Johnson, 29, batted .179/.218/.241 in 173 plate appearances for the Royals this season"

I was hoping the Bernadina thing was just an idea the Phillies were flirting with and that they knew better than to actually pick him up.

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