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Wednesday, August 07, 2013

Comments

Nice to see a thread that's not about a game.

I'm excited to see whether the deal goes through and Gonzalez is a total bust who never throws an inning with the Phillies, or the deal falls apart and Gonzalez becomes a star for another team.

From last thread from awh:

Howard - 1B, yes, Ryno in the six hole

Why so high? ☺

Maybe he watched the Phils lose 13 of 14 and was like, well f*ck that...

They found out that I am really 42 years old.

for the poster who wondered if Junior Lake had any relationship to Steve Lake, i submit this picture as 'anything's possible with Steve Lake':

Does Rube still have a job?

Does anywhere have the video of Dom's drop? I didn't see it on mlb.com

Snag™ with MAG™.

Hey, it does work.

Now, I can be like everyone else when we discuss production™.

This was the only thing to excite me this year.
And now it may not be a thing.

sigh.

Hey, Roto has his birthday as 1/1/2050.

Is that the problem?

http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/7501/miguel-alfredo-gonzalez

Found it. It's in the full highlights recap.

Edmundo, I only have him that high because the FO will never let the manager hit him lower.

Personally, against LHP, I'd have him hitting 8th until he proves all over again that he can hit them.

How about "on the bench" Is "on the bench" high enough in the lineup against LHPs?

Cyclic, link please?

BTW, the Cuban™ is how we should refer to him until he's actually signed.

I guess MAG™ works too.

NEPP, you know that will never happen, that's why I didn't build the lineup that way.

And you are correct, they won't hit the $25 Million dollar Man™ anything other than 4th either.

If they do bring back MYoung and Utley, I would do this:

vs. RHP:

Revere - CF
Utley - 2B
Rollins - SS
Brown - RF/LF
Ruf - LF/RF
Howard - 1B
Franco - 3B (if he makes the team, otherwise Asche/MYoung
C

vs. LHP

Revere - CF
Utley - 2B
MYoung - 1B
Brown - RF/LF
Ruf - LF/RF
Rollins - SS
Franco - 3B (if he makes the team, otherwise Asche
C

But I ain't the manager.

That baseball card labels Steve Lake a bust. How appropriate.

Wait there's a chance they might really bring back MYoung?

......why?

Wow, to me, anyway, it looks like Brown turned his head at the last second and didn't look the ball into his glove.

That's pathetic - a little league mistake.

BTW, GM Carson calls an a game where a player has a HR/E/K in the same game a "Howard".

If we do this - Howard™ - can other blogs be sued if they use it?

bap?

Cyclic, speculation on my part, but for two reasons:

1) They didn't trade him so they may want to keep him around as a super platoon guy next season - they like him and his presence in the clubhouse.

2) He's played in TX and Philly, and may be willing to come back here because of the familiarity.


But, understand it's pure speculation on my part, and they may very well trade him by 8/31 anyway, though I con't see him going to the Red Sox because the Yankees want him and would almost certainly block it by claiming him. there are other teams that might also try to block that from happening.

Bringing back M. Young would be one of the dumber things Rube has ever done...especially since we all know that if it does happen, it would inevitably be on a 2 year deal.

I've seen conflicting information on this, but I believe a claiming team would be responsible for the prorated portion of Young's $16M salary, not the prorated portion of $16M less the $10M paid by the Rangers. If so, he is sure to clear waivers; if he is claimed, just let him go.

The complete failure of the organization, let alone the team is amazing. How heads don't roll after this season is beyond me.

M. Young feels like he is going to be this year's version of Juan Pierre where we hang onto him at the deadline despite interest from other teams and then just let him walk at the end of the season for nothing.

If that happens, its just another indictment of Rube's abilities as a GM.

Am I reading this right?

Phillies WAR Leaders (position players):

BRef:
Brown 3.1
Utley 2.9
Frandsen 1.1
Ruf 0.9
Revere 0.8

Fangraphs:
Utley 3.0
Brown 2.2
Rollins 1.0
Revere 0.9
Ruf 0.9

I do feel like there's a grain of truth the theory the Phils held on to MY at the deadline b/c they plan on bringing him back next year. He's like the perfect RAJ player: Old, can "play" many positions, overpriced, 7 year old scouting report is very good for him, and he's a former all star, so he'll put "butts" in seats.

BB-- He's had over 80 RBIs in a season a bunch of times

Cyclic true-I couldn't figure out the trademark thing, so I had to adapt.

Young's entire salary would be absorbed by the team who claims him so Texas might be the team to put a claim in. Why would the Phil's drop him for nothing? Do you want to see more Mc'Martinez?

I'm starting to think we're not going to sign an outfielder this offseason.

We're better off. I mean, have you seen Choo's Production™ this year? No thanks to that.

Well, if good for nothing else, this blog has become useful in helping guys discover and learn how to use html codes.

If Ruf pans out, they could focus on upgrading Catcher with McCann. McCann's issues with LHP would be mitigated a bit by having a guy like Ruf who can hit LHP in the lineup. I don't see McCann happening for a couple of reasons though:

1. I doubt he wants to sign with a rebuilding club when he'll have his choice of places to go.

2. Cost/years and our FO being leery of investing both in a catcher on the wrong side of 30.

Who's the free agent catcher with the highest RBI/BB ratio?

Or Ruiz. I actually think resigning him is fairly likely.

omg

RBI/BB ratio must become an official Beerleaguer stat. It's perfect.

Choo hasn't hit a single HR with RISP all season. How is that even possible? He has 15 HRs...14 are solo shots and 1 other was with a guy on 1B. He does have a 23.4 BB% with RISP though...Rube must despise him.

Insanity.

NEPP: when has the FO ever been leery of investing in a player on the wrong side of 30? This is the organization that gave both Raul Ibanez and Jamie Moyer multi-year deals.

jbird-- The 2012-2013 off-season

Dom Brown has a very impressive 2.84 RBI/BB so far in 2013. That is propped up very impressively by his May numbers where he posted an ∞ RBI/BB ratio.

Speaking of Ibanez, here's a gem from last night:

http://sports.yahoo.com/video/ibanezs-throw-comes-short-141700245.html

BTW, Delmon Young and Kevin Frandsen are the only 2 other players on the team that have an RBI/BB ratio anywhere close to 2.0.

Brown's Production™ numbers are even higher than Dave Kingman (likely Rube's favorite all time player)

Kingman had 1210 RBIs and just 608 BB in 16 seasons. That's good for a career 1.99 RBI/BB ratio.

Phillies RBI/BB Leaders

Brown 2.84
DYoung 2.21
Frandsen 1.89
Howard 1.87
Kratz 1.77
Mayberry 1.63
Utley 1.56
Ruiz 1.50
Revere 1.06
MYoung 0.95
Rollins 0.91
Ruf 0.58

The scary part is that I could actually see such a ratio as part of the Phillies internal ratings system for players/prospects. That could explain where Rube gets his Top 10 prospect lists from since he doesn't believe in any of the other lists out there.

I know its en-vogue to ridicule the RBI stat, but doesn't it matter just a little? Some players tend to do better in clutch situations, while others (eg. DYoung) flame out in those situations, but pad their batting avg with meaningless hits.

Good to see Brown learning the ropes, doing what it takes to stay in the majors. Yearly Production™:

2011: 0.76
2012: 1.23
2013: 2.84

Jake: No.

Of course it matters, Jake. But RBIs are largely a matter of opportunity more than anything. Most guys hit better with RISP and Men Onbase...if for no other reason than the changes in the infielder positioning open up holes in the defense. Sure, some guys dont (Adam Dunn's name comes to mind as a guy who historically drops off with RISP) but most do.

Scoring runs is the #1 point of offense. However, statistical study after statistical study show a very strong correlation between OBP and Runs Scored by a ballclub.

League Leaders, RBI/BB

Pierzynski TEX 5.50
Jones BAL 5.27
Dominguez HOU 3.67
Soriano CHC/NYY 3.44
Perez KCR 3.31
Arencibia TOR 3.21
Craig STL 3.19
Hunter DET 3.11
Phillips CIN 3.00
Beltran STL 2.86
Brown PHI 2.84
Machado BAL 2.65
Byrd NYM 2.61
Aybar LAA 2.60
Beltre TEX 2.48

Looks like a lot of Productive™ players on Winning Teams™, make it happen, Rube!

(It actually is, interestingly enough, a collection of good-to-great players)

Other MLB Players for reference

Carlos Gomez 2.16
Carlos Gonzalez 1.71
Freddie Freeman 1.70
Buster Posey 1.58
Andrew McCutchen 1.42
Paul Goldschmidt 1.41
Joey Votto 0.61

MLB Career Leader in Production™ (min 500 RBI):

Glenn Wright: 3.46 RBI/BB ratio

http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/w/wrighgl01.shtml

Jake: duck!

I think it goes without saying that other GMs think Amaro is a complete and utter joke. This is just the latest in a long line of embarrassing situations brought on by his incompetence.

My question is, do you think that he knows he's an embarrassment? There's a guy I work with who is terrible at his job. It's an ongoing argument between me and a few co-workers as to whether or not he knows that everyone is aware how terrible he is, or if he just stumbles through life not knowing that everyone is making fun of him behind his back for being incompetent and taking bets on when he's going to get fired.

I'm sure Amaro knows that those dumb stat people and people who make those stupid lists think he's an idiot, and I'm confident he doesn't care. But does he know he's currently a punch line (and will be for years, much like Omar Minaya) in front offices across the league?

I would think he has to know, but he seems to be oblivious to quite a few things, so I wouldn't rule out that he thinks he's actually respected.

Pierzynski TEX 5.50

Is he a FA? That could solve our Catcher issues next year.

Active Production™ Career Leaders (min 200 RBI):

#1. Yuniesky Betancourt 3.23
#2. Delmon Young 3.22

NEPP - Good point. Batting avg with RISP is a better stat for measuring a players ability to get clutch hits. Don't get me wrong, OBP is obviously very important. The really good offenses (our offense until 2010) drive up pitch counts, take walks if they don't get strikes, then pounce when they have the pitcher on the ropes. Saying "walks don't matter" is the height of baseball idiocy.

***My question is, do you think that he knows he's an embarrassment? There's a guy I work with who is terrible at his job. It's an ongoing argument between me and a few co-workers as to whether or not he knows that everyone is aware how terrible he is, or if he just stumbles through life not knowing that everyone is making fun of him behind his back for being incompetent and taking bets on when he's going to get fired. ***

In my experience, stupid people don't think they are stupid. They think they are just as smart as anyone else if not smarter. They simply can't comprehend someone being smarter than them. Thus, I think he is completely oblivious.

NEPP --

If not, I wonder if the Rangers would find Ruf (0.58) attractive.

It's called the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Career leader in anti-Production™ (BB/RBI):

Richie Ashburn: 0.49

Ruben Amaro Hates Richie Ashburn.

Jake-- I love that gif

ah crap, Ashburn is #2. The long time Washington Senator Eddie Yost edges out Whitey.

Maybe Darin Ruf is just a late-blooming defensive phenom

lore --

When evaluating leadoff hitters, Production™ isn't really the appropriate statistics.

You need more advanced stats, like team winning percentage when the leadoff hitter scores a run.

"Bringing back M. Young would be one of the dumber things Rube has ever done...especially since we all know that if it does happen, it would inevitably be on a 2 year deal."


NEPP, I agree with you that if the goal is to get younger then it's a stretch, but think of it this way:

.276/.342/.406 (106 OPS+) is Young's slash line so far this season. Historically, his worst month has been August and his second best month has been Sept./Oct., so it's a decent bet that he'll finish the season somewhere around where he is right now.

He'd be the same age that Raul Ibanez was when the Phillies brought him in (all Raul did was post a .264/.329/.469 line over 3 seasons), if the Phillies signed him to a 2-year deal.

The question - in my mind - is the ROLE that MYoung would be willing to play.

If he's be willing to be a part-time player (assuming he can't find a starting spot elsewhere), perhaps 1-3 starts per week (one at 1B, one at 2B, one at 3B?) and be a bench bat, the Phillies could do a LOT worse than have him coming in as a PH.

Need I mention them? (mini mart™, MiniMac, Freddy, Nix)

So, if he's willing to finish his career playing a limited role, I could see bringing him back.

Young at 2B?!? That'd be scary.

Any possibility Ruben has been hitting the bottle?

Just in case you weren't sure about RAJ's qualifications:

The Phils have $104.5 million already committed in 2014 to six players in Cliff Lee, Cole Hamels, Ryan Howard, Jimmy Rollins, Jonathan Papelbon and Mike Adams.

That represents the highest level of incompetence.

You need more advanced stats, like team winning percentage when the leadoff hitter scores a run.

So ramsey, are you saying that Daily News Live had been ahead of the statistical curve all these years? Boy was I wrong.

awh -If MYoung is willing to be a platoon/bench player, he could be a valuable asset in '14 - but at what price? He'll probably get offered starter $$$ elsewhere.

MYoung doesn't strike me as a guy that want's to play a few more years in a low-cost part-time gig. He's making $16 million this year. I doubt he's gonna drop down to an acceptable bench player salary all that willingly. He'd probably just retire and go hang out with his family in Texas.

Unless Michael Young has been flushing away (or as some would say, spending it well on) his money on hookers and blow all these years, I'd hope he would sail into the sunset. He has a young family who I'm sure would love to have daddy around more. And watching him be a statue at either third or first for even a lot less money is not my idea of a good time. Disclaimer: It may be Rube's idea of a good time and in fact, probably is.

Jake: Yes, I was joking about making Sandberg the manager because he sucks at coaching third base. But he may get the job for other reasons. Watching him coach third base, I'm beginning to wonder why the Cubs passed him over and let him go.

I love men.

NEPP- I agree with that, but the thing is I don't think he's just plain stupid. I think he has no idea what he's doing because of his many misconceptions about the game, along with the fact that he's not qualified for his job and clearly is in over his head in that respect. But I'm sure he's an intelligent person, generally.

And if that's the case, he has to know how the last 18-24 months have looked to the rest of the league. He just has to. I'm sitting here eating Doritos for lunch and I'm embarrassed for him. I would imagine that with his peers, it's even worse. Next year at the Winter Meetings, I'm looking forward to stories about Billy Beane sending him fake trade proposals involving A's that have long since retired, etc etc.

i think DH Phils is right, MYoung will hit waivers with a prorated $16M. The Phillies were given $10M from the Rangers, so if he were traded, I'm sure his actual cost to the Phils would come into play - but for the official waiver wire part - he's a $16M player.

Is there a rule that says teams can only exchange the difference of cash in a trade? i.e Team A sends PlayerX + $5M to Team B and they send PLayerY to Player A + $3M would just end up being a $2M trade to Team B? If not, that could be a possible loop hole, to have 1yr vets clear waivers more often since their actual prorated salary will always be larger then what the cost to the current team really is.

I love men.

Posted by: NEPP | Wednesday, August 07, 2013 at 01:01 PM

NEPP- I agree with that


I hate these fake posters but that is one of the funniest coincidences I've seen in quite some time.

smith - Your comment reminded me of one of my all-time favourite quotes:

“Ninety percent I’ll spend on good times, women, and Irish whiskey.
The other ten percent I’ll probably waste.”
- Phillies pitcher Tug McGraw, on his plans for his $75,000 salary


Iceman - The problem is, Monty is the one guy who needs to admit that Amaro is incompetent, but he won't because(a) he is incompetent himself, (b) he chose Amaro for the job, and (c) he's admitted that many of Amaro's decisions we're made together with him, so firing Amaro would be an indictment of himself.

Ah, yes, the "Peter Principle." This might resonate only with the graybeards, but it defines RAJ. The principle applies to all aspects of organizational life. That is to say, where there is an organizational structure (org chart), formal or informal, one rises to one's level of incompetence.

That is to say, we all have levels, hopefully, above which we are not qualified to reach. When I say "hopefully," I do so, because getting to that point of incompetence will often, but not always, sadly, lead to dire results such as firing, demotion and transfer.

To Amaro, his so-called "body of work" has demonstrated now over too long a time that he has reached and exceeded his level of incompetence and both his bosses and he have handled it incompetently. I actually fault his bosses for not recognizing his deficiencies and immediately relieving him of his duties. Does that neglect argue for their having reached their own levels of incompetence.

To the point of his not recognizing how incompetent he is by showing his arrogance, it does, in fact, appear evident by how he has pissed off his colleagues on other teams that he is handling his incompetence and stupidity by doing the childish thing.

Sorry for the long rant, but I'm in that mood as must most of us be.

This took a long time, but I believe it is relevant to Amaro's MO. Just one of you posters, please, acknowledge my effort at the very least. Then feel free to move on.

"Iceman - The problem is, Monty is the one guy who needs to admit that Amaro is incompetent, but he won't because(a) he is incompetent himself, (b) he chose Amaro for the job, and (c) he's admitted that many of Amaro's decisions we're made together with him, so firing Amaro would be an indictment of himself."

Posted by: Jake | Wednesday, August 07, 2013 at 01:14 PM

As I just wrote, Jake.

Great, "Cash For Clunkers."

btw iceman, the reason that neither Montgomery nor Amaro will get canned is quite similiar to that you expounded. I add, however, that the driving force is that the ownership, old Main Line money cares more about "appearance" that a little money. The pyschology being that these types of folks have so much money that the higher value is not to be perceived as dumb. And firing people you once hired makes you look like you did not know what you were doing in the first place.

A pretty good picture of the Phillies Ownership/Front Office back pre-WFC:

http://www.phillymag.com/articles/the-phantom-five/

Very good read. Two things the writer nails pretty well:

"It was a smart fix, but a short-term one, considering Gillick’s age and intention to retire at the end of this year. Who will his successor be? Either Mike Arbuckle, a 16-year Phillies veteran, or Ruben Amaro Jr., a former player who was hired and mentored by none other than … Ed Wade."

And the best is the final paragraph:

"Who will be held accountable if this team is a shell of itself by 2012? The answer is, no one."

" And firing people you once hired makes you look like you did not know what you were doing in the first place."

Simple solution. Have 'em whacked.

I was at last night's game. It was fun to see a win, good offense, and good outings by the young relievers.

One of the most enjoyable things in my (admittedly mis-prioritized ) life is rooting home a Phil's win as they close out the ninth inning.

Pap has taken away that joy. Even when he's effective, he's unwatchable and unlikeable.

#17 of 62 reasons for why I (sports)hate Rube.

Just one more thing about "The Peter Principle," for those of us who read it quite some time ago, it's worth a re-read. For the younger set, it is well worthwhile and explains in vivid detail how organizational dysfunction and harmful paradigms can be put in place very often unwittingly by well-meaning, but too human human beings.

Inertia results, making change that much harder to implement. Usually, it involves the discomfort and ignominy of admitting errors and bringing someone(s) from outside the organization in to recalibrate. Humility is a bitter pill to swallow if one is incompetent and arrogant.

Can Montgomery get canned? He's more than just an executive.

No, Mike, he and the other owners have to be waited out and tolerated until they die. The problem is that nepotism reigns supreme in Phillies land, so...?

Market forces do not apply to protected monopolies like baseball and the government. Incompetence is not only tolerated, it is promoted.

Hey did you all hear? Me and NEPP made it official last night after hours of making the beast with two backs.

Right on, BAPS.

I don't pretend to know Michael Young, but I might guess the best scenario for him would be to return to the Rangers in some kind of coaching capacity. Not only is his family there, he has many community organizations to which he has contributed much money and effort.

I've always been a MYoung supporter and still appreciate his approach at the plate and professionalism. It also seems he is one of the most willing players on the Phils to make himself available to reporters, good times or bad (Lidge-like.)

I also don't like seeing aging formerly-elite players trotted out as PH or DH for any willing taker. The angst of seeing Thome's return reinforced that maybe it is best to leave with dignity, and at the right time (which may be earlier than a player might like to admit)

>> (It actually is, interestingly enough, a >> collection of good-to-great players)

Is anyone with the data willing to regress ribbie-bibbie against RC+, OPS+, or WAR? Almost certainly garbage results but I'm intrigued.

1
Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Lannan, Pettibone, (FA)

2
Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Kendrick, Gonzalez, (Lannan/Pettibone)

3
Hamels, Lee, Kendrick, Gonzalez, Lannan, (Pettibone)

4
Hamels, Lee, Halladay, Gonzalez, Lannan, (FA/Morgan/Martin)

"Usually, it involves the discomfort and ignominy of admitting errors and bringing someone(s) from outside the organization in to recalibrate.

Yes, this! There comes a point where the old Main Line money that owns the Phillies cares more about their own self-preservation than they do about the millions of fans who live and die with the team. It's sad how disconnected they are with us.

I guess Lee could be traded in the offseason, but they would definitely need to bring in a FA or another SP through a trade. Especially if they won't have Halladay or Gonzalez

Anybody in this little circle jerk group want to jerk me off?

Implying guys are gay as an insult=The height of 7th grade humor.

At least put some effort into it, kid.

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