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Tuesday, August 13, 2013

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The Phils seem to be barely able to get back to back hits; back to back wins seems like a real stretch.

They suck, we get it. In other news, Chris Davis is hot again:
HR #44: http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29677635

Anybody else notice that except for 1 month Domonic Brown pretty much has been hitting what he's done for the rest of his MLB career?

Mini-Mart's apparently no better at reading month-by-month splits than he is at playing baseball.

Domonic Brown

2010-2012:
.236/.315/.388, .703 OPS, 41 PA/HR

2013 w/o May:
.260/.337/.472, .809 OPS, 23 PA/HR

Yeah, nearly identical.

I can understand he'd be too upset to be analytical after being benched in favor of Casper Wells.

Not to mention, most players' numbers look worse if you take away their best month.

Guess what? I got a fever, and the only prescription is more Mini-Mart.

The plight of a Phils fan: being reduced to pining for guys like Steven Susdorf, if only to be rid of Michael Martinez.

Pining for Steve Susdorf. Don't they put people in some kind of rehab when they've gotten to that point?

Closer to that high protected pick.

I wonder if they have enough sense to move Martin and Cloyd to the pen next season?

What are the odds that they bring Mini Mart and his career 38 OPS+ back in 2014?

I mean, he's jumped his AVG all the way up to .200 so he's really improving. We know Rube doesn't look at anything other than AVG and RBI so it doesn't matter that his OPS is down to a horrific .400 this year and that its .504 for his career.

Every single game that Mini Mart is on the MLB roster for is a complete and utter indictment of Ruben Amaro Jr and his hubris.

I like the whole Mini Mart thing. It lets us dream up crazy narratives on why Amaro keeps him around.

Some one please tell me again who we got for Pence and Victorino??

NEPP: I have stopped trying to ask myself those questions. I have just accepted certain truths with regard to Phillies, such as:

1. Charlie Manuel will never be fired;
2. Ryan Howard will always hit clean-up; and
3. Mini-Mart will find his way onto the roster.

All of the above are completely nonsensical, but they happen. You just have to resign to the fact that you are not stupid, they are. It's the only thing that gets you through it.

Ethan Martin for Vic and Tommy Joseph for Pence.

Martin looks like he'd make a good late innings reliever and Tommy Joseph suffered his 3rd concussion a couple months ago and its thought that he might have to switch positions due to ongoing concussion symptoms (think Lindros).

John Lannan is horrendous. They have no shot to win this game with him pitching. I would DFA him or try to trade him. I don't care what they get in return, just get rid of him. Another brilliant signing by RAJ.

Lannan is basically a slightly worse Kyle Kendrick, i.e. a 5th starter.

The only thing you can say for him is that he's had a better year than Vance Worley.

Tommy Joseph suffered his 3rd concussion a couple months ago and its thought that he might have to switch positions due to ongoing concussion symptoms (think Lindros).

And he will have no value if he moves from Catcher.

denny b., in the previous thread, listed a bunch of players who don't belong on the roster and should be dumped immediately.

Who would replace them? denny b. is silent.

I think we all agree there are players on this team that shouldn't be here. I've yet to see anyone list names of who replaces them.

I suspect this is because such replacements do not exist within the Phillies farm system except for those who are 2 or 3 years away from MLB.

Thus, in the end, the demand to dump so-and-so and so-and-so just makes you look foolish.

Idea! Timmy Joseph in CF / sarcasm but don't be surprised.

* Tommy of course (on phone with tiny letter keys)

Bob: Besides Joseph, the Phils got Schierholtz & Seth Rosin. They chose not to re-sign Schierholtz. Rosin could end up as back-of-rotation/middle relief guy.

limoguy: Pining for Susdorf as what? Team bus driver?

Trades of veterans for multiple prospects are essentially like buying lottery tickets. You get a stack and hope one of them is a winner.

You can't blame RAJ for Joseph's concussions. The return in that deal was actually pretty good when you consider that we got Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz (126 OPS+) in the deal. The problem was that Ruben jettisoned Schierholtz so that he had room for Nix and Delmon Young.

Rosin's been okay (not great, mind you) as a starter in AA, so don't write him off yet. He'd probably benefit from a move back to the bullpen.

As for the Vic trade, Martin's a pretty nice find. I still don't see him as a starting pitcher, but he could be the 8th-inning power arm we've been searching for.

David Carpenter is the perfect embodiment of a reliever. Stuff nothing special, kicked around 5 different organizations in past 4 years and this season he is 10 times more valuable than Mike Adams.

Goo Goo G'joob

I don't think Joseph has much value outside catcher. He does probably have 20 homerun pop somewhere in there, but I don't know that he could handle 2nd, 3rd or the outfield. Bat won't play at 1st. Best case scenario would be a bench guy who could fill in at the corner infield/outfield spots with some pop as a pinch hitter. A Matt Stairs meets Greg Dobbs type? Don't know that his glove will support that though.

Rosin might be an okay reliever...which is exactly why Rube converted him back to a SP.

I mean, that worked out so well with Aumont, why not?

***You can't blame RAJ for Joseph's concussions***

To be fair, the 2nd concussion was when Joseph smashed his head into the wall after seeing Mini Mart had been recalled and the 3rd was the day after the trade deadline when he saw M. Young was still on the roster.

So how is that not Rube's fault?

Really, the Phillies got the better of the Giants in the Pence trade. Schierholtz has a .835 ops to Pence's .774. Pence is ahead in oWAR mostly based on an extra 130 at bats, I think. Schierholtz has the better (less bad) dWAR. Gives Pence a 0.6 overall lead in WAR. When you throw in Joseph and Rosin and consider salaries, not a bad return. Unfortunately...

NEPP, that would be funny if it weren't so close to the truth. :)

Nepp, LOL!!!

Over the last 7 days, Ruf's hitting .160 and ops-ing .650; however, he's also hit 2 homeruns and has 4 rbi's and 4 runs on only 4 hits. So, I feel like as his "stupid ratios" like ops go down, his Production ratios are going up.

***So, I feel like as his "stupid ratios" like ops go down, his Production ratios are going up.***

Good to see him finally listening to the coaching staff and embracing the Organization's philosophy.

I may be a .500 career OPSer but I'm 0 for my career in self-induced concussions after misreading flyballs. Versatility.

NEPP | at 10:07 AM

------------------

Good one - still chuckling out loud a little.

after seeing basically nothing out of Casper so far, I still remain in favor of keeping him over Mayberry next year.

Cue Mayberry defenders...

Clout-

There aren't a lot of internal options. And you have to fill out the roster with somebody warm.

All I am saying is that it makes no sense to play games in August and September when you are 100 games out of 1st place and going nowhere with guys like McDonald and Valdes and Mini Mart on the roster. Makes no sense to pick up a Casper Wells, who was so bad he got dumped by THE WHITE SOX for gosh sakes.

Get Galvis up here. Get Hernandez up here. Get Cloyd up here. Get Susdorf up here. Are they capable of playing any role in 2014? Use the last 2 months of the season to see. Those old dudes or castoffs who will be out of baseball in November don't help you with 2014 in mind.

Can Ethan Martin be a possible relief candidate in 2014? Can Freddy Galvis or Cesar Hernandez be a utility guy for you? Can Steve Susdorf be a main LH pinch-hitter off the bench for 2014? Maybe yes, maybe no. Its those spots that are really the only ones up for grabs for next year. Most of the rest of the regular lineup is set barring injury. If they had a catcher that was close to ready, they could bring him up too. But they don't.

There aren't great options but having 3-4 of these guys who have ZERO future here taking up spots on the roster now, makes no sense. And maybe those 3-4 new guys have no future either. But it would be nice to at least see them in big league games. They at least have a chance mainly because of their age and because we have already seen what Mini Mart and a few others can do. They have already proven to be totally incompetent.

Mayberry is fine as a 4th outfielder. The 4th outfielder position is the provence of the Roger Bernadinas, Jordan Danks, and Colin Cowgills of the world. It's a pretty sad bunch. You can probably only find a handful that are better than Mayberry. Mayberry should not be a starter for a 1st division club. (Un)Fortunatly he isn't a starter for a 1st division club...

Benched for Casper Wells? The guy makes Mayberry look like Mike Trout. What next, D. Brown belly-flopping in center?

Lannan is barely a 5 starter. But after starting him on short rest, he looks like a AA pitcher. There was simply no reason for that. Cloyd could have pitches on normal rest. And this year's option was already used up. So, WTF? Lannan should be put on waivers and if someone claims him, go in peace, my friend. We can lose with someone making minimum wage.

Of course Susdorf should be with the big club. Wells should be in DFA hell. Martinez and McDonald should be waiting tables at Bennigans. And most of the pen should be busing tables at Bennigans.

There are replacements for everyone in the minors, except for a couple of bullpen spots. Not necessarily good replacements. But Fields should have been in the majors a long time ago. MYoung should have been elsewhere while he still had some make believe value.

The scale of incompetence shown by Rube here is almost incomprehensible.

Phrase no half-intelligent GM would make:

"Get Susdorf up here."

Is there a different Susdorf than the one we already called up for a bit?

"Get Susdorf up here.>

Which, of course, is why R00b would say it.

"Every single game that Mini Mart is on the MLB roster for is a complete and utter indictment of Ruben Amaro Jr and his hubris."


Hubris or incompetence?

You see, if r00b were competent wouldn't there be better options on the 40-man roster than mini mart and Mini Mac?

If r00b were competent (and Monty deserves his share of criticism because he has input), would he have let Schierholtz go for nothing?

If r00b were competent would the bullpen be the worst in MLB (...paging Chad Durbin)?

If r00b were competent would they have signed a guy based on SEVEN YEAR OLD scouting reports?


Feel free to add any other similar questions. Just start the sentence like this:

"If r00b were competent..."

Methinks the guys clamoring for Susdorf and/or Fields are evaluating things thusly:


Q: Backups on the 25-man?

A: Susdorf or mini mart?

A: Fields or Mini Mac?


Now, I am not staking out a position here.
However, as marginal as Susdorf or Fields may be, I would think the people criticizing their advocates ought to at least explain why they don't think having Susdorf and or Fields on the 25-man as bench bats would be superior to mini and Mini.

"You can probably only find a handful that are better than Mayberry. "

We did, Casper Wells.

There's a reasonable explanation for having one of Mini-Mart and Mini-Mac on the roster - Cholly doesn't feel comfortable without a "legitimate" backup shortstop. I don't agree, but I get the thinking.

There is no reason on God's green earth that they should carry both of them on the 25-man roster.

"Every single game that Mini Mart is on the MLB roster for is a complete and utter indictment of Ruben Amaro Jr and his hubris." - NEPP

Hubris or incompetence? - awh

A healthy dose of both.

How many teams can say they're 3 deep at utility SS?

Its a huge advantage over every other club.

"It was often over-looked that Martinez was an avid and talented nature photographer. His topics were wide ranging, though some of his most critically acclaimed work were creative and, largely, humorous photographs involving the interaction of business executives and capra hircus. The body of work appears to be mostly unexplored, however, as the works themselves seem to be snapped up rather quickly into private collections."

- from "Life of a Baseball God" by R. A. Marrow, II

ha - well done.

Haven't had an excerpt in a while. That was beautiful.

Andy, bravo!!!

I admit I had to look up capra hircus and now I'm laughing even harder.

BTW, Andy wins the thread - hands down.

some text


An example of Mini Mart's work.

***Andy wins the thread - hands down.***

And its not even close...bravo.

I'm just waiting for Mini-Mart to be named player-manager.

One of these days. Rube will make a deal and the $hit he throws at the wall. Might actually stick one of these times!

Buzz Caprahircus used to play on the Braves long ago, did he not?

"We did, Casper Wells."

Wells has an ops+ this year of -2.

If both play in 2014, Wells will be the better player.

Also, Wells is better than half our bullpen.

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-casper-wells-experiment/wellspitch3-gif-opt/

awh- on the contrary, I believe dennyb is saying that Susdorf and Fields have a better chance of contributing to the 2014 team than Mini and Wells.

I think if any of the four of those players are playing a significant role next year (except for Wells, who like lorecore I believe is better than he's been this season), or Amaro acts on the assumption that they could play a role, it would be a disaster. I don't think it matters for this season, and I don't think it should even be a consideration for next season, if Susdorf could be an upgrade over a current upgrade on the roster.

As the saying goes, if the answer is Steven Susdorf, you're asking the wrong question.

Upgrade over a current player* Christ I have MG disease lately.

Andy: Your 12:15 is stellar. Nice work.

Fields is this year's Moss.

I would love to see 'R.A. Tomorrow' posts by Andy in one thread. Some of them have been pretty funny & highly creative.

From a Fangraphs chat...

"What kind of deal does Choo get in the off season? He has been a top 15 player this season and his OBP makes him a perfect valuable leadoff guy?

Dave Cameron: Huge platoon splits, awful defense, walk-based offensive approach; I think he gets like 4/60 or something."

Would you want the Phillies to offer Choo 4/60? I'm sure he's not even on RAJ's radar with that "walk-based offensive approach."

I have very little interest in overpaying for Choo.

Fields is not a superstar. And by replacing Michael Young, he wouldn't be replacing a superstar. Fields is, however, younger, and more likely to be a backup next year. It would be nice to see if he has anything major league worthy left in the tank. But it is not to be because perpetual All Star Michael Young is Rube's choice to bore me to tears this season. A zero dimensional player.

And as for Susdorf. I've seen him lay some outfield in AAA and he normally catches what he gets to. That play in left field was an anomaly. And he can hit. He is a very good minor league hitter who may translate to a good pinch hitter/occasional corner outfield starter on a team such as the Phillies. But, apparently, we will never know.

Caspar Whatshisname and Martinez and McDonald pollute the roster and yet, homegrown possible bench contributors rot in AAA. It's like a disease with this team. Why would any minor league free agent sign with a team that will only bring you to the majors if Elmn Young, Minimart and Minimac pull up lame. And probably not even then.

Lay some outfield should be play some outfield. Get your minds out of the gutter.

Are we all in agreement that the Phillies will not sign Jose Abreu because he is blocked by Ryan Howard?

"...(except for Wells, who like lorecore I believe is better than he's been this season)..."


OK, Iceman, so then you agree with r00b?:


RAJ: "Gee, this Wells guy had a year in 2010 where he hit .323. Should we put in a waiver claim?"

Scout: "Yeah, r00b, we have s scouting report from that year that says he's pretty good."

RAJ: "Really, read it to me."

Scout: "It says he hits for average and a little bit of power - ha had 17 RBI in 93 AB - but that he doesn't walk a lot."

RAJ: "Who gives a sh8t about walks, I care about Production™. 17 RBI in only 93 AB? Let's claim him."

***Are we all in agreement that the Phillies will not sign Jose Abreu because he is blocked by Ryan Howard?***

And here I thought that the Ryan Howard comp meant that Rube had already given him a 5 year extension for the 2019-2023 seasons.

denny b. & aksmith: So you think the odds of Susdorf helping the team next year are far higher than chances of Wells helping the team next year?

Choo is no better than that Asian player who "accidentally" did gay porn.

"McDonald pollute(s) the roster"...

Mini-Mac ain't going nowhere. After Durbin, Susdorf, JCRam, Nix and D. Young, if Mini-Mac bites the dust Roob is in danger of setting the MLB record for most DFAs in a season going unclaimed.

Yes, Clout. I expect that Susdorf will never see Philadelphia again, except as a tourist. And Wells will be a net negative. So, certainly, Susdorf will be more valuable to the Phillies going forward. Better question: Clout, do you actually believe Caspar Wells will be on the Phillies next season?
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
denny b. & aksmith: So you think the odds of Susdorf helping the team next year are far higher than chances of Wells helping the team next year?

Posted by: clout | Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 02:14 PM

How much will the Phils have in their budget for annual team video to acquire the rights to Queen's 'Another One Bites the Dust' for the montage of players who were DFA/put on the 60-day DL?

MG: Jimmy can probably get them a good price.

Wells is havng a bad year but his career bWAR is higher than Mayberry's, for whatever that's worth. bWAR doesn't like Mayberry's glove much (and I'm starting to buy into JMJ being a less than average fielder. He might have lost a step in the last couple of years). Probably not much difference between them moving forward. Keep the cheaper one.

Also, if we're all tired of JMJ, we've got a new guy to sour on.

Wells got the gig over Susdorf because, post-D.Young, Roob wanted a right-handed bat. But what Roob really values is a multi-positional switch-hitter. Versatility.

Wonder what the franchise record is for the number of games of non-consecutive wins after the ASB? Phils have to have either broken it already or be getting damn close.

Mayberry now has 215 PA's against righties vs 71 against lefties. He's actually quite a bit better against righties this year than he was last year, but he's facing a higher % of them so his overall #'s are slipping. It's too bad the Phillies don't have an outfielder who crushes right handed pitching to platoon with Mayberry. . . (Scheirholtz reference!)

A Mayberry/Scheirholtz RF platoon would have been very effective. And cheap.

Are there any theories as to how the Phillies went from a middling .500 team for three months, to an absolute train-wreck post-ASB? Even the "sell sell sell" crowd thought the team would hang around .500 all season.

Of course, before I took the pictures I had to get him to lower his guard:

http://www.sonoma.edu/pubs/mt/images/MiniMart.jpg

Jake-- The run differential was there all along...

I didn't want to believe it. But it was there.

And then Ruben requested one with makeup and his name on it:

http://farm4.static.flickr.com/3059/2339503866_ebb3765268_m.jpg

(I like the MLB paycheck.)

***Are there any theories as to how the Phillies went from a middling .500 team for three months, to an absolute train-wreck post-ASB?***

Well, I didnt. I tended to think they were playing over their head in the 1st half and the peripherals supported that. In the 2nd half, that is coming to the forefront and you're also seeing a cascade effect of multiple injuries.

Jake - The starting pitching besides Hamels has been horrendous and the offense dried up. No conspiracy.

Well, for one, only Hamels is pitching well. Lee has been average since the AS break, and kendrick-lannan-martin have been terrible pretty much.

and having bad defense at every position except for SS/2B hasn't helped either

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