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Wednesday, August 14, 2013

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Looks like they could leapfrog into the #4 pick spot this weekend.

I'm glad they're planning on rushing Halladay back. That always works well.

Matt Gelb ‏@magelb 1m
Sounds like John Lannan’s season is over. Structural issue in knee. May need surgery.

At least we didn't get shut out and our BP did pretty well (only 1 additional run). And we won 1 game of the series. These are what pass for victory right now for our Phillies.

Posted by: GBrettfan | Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 11:55 PM

Nobody told me there'd be days like these

Brown and Ruf hit HR's also.
All in all a good night, except we lost the game .
And now we need another starting pitcher.

Hey, I know- let's rush Doc back.
Yeah, that's the answer.

Decent of him to say, although our season's shot anyway.

"It’s tough," Lannan said. "I want to help this team out tremendously; go out there every five days. I know when I'm healthy I can go out there and do my job. I feel like I'm letting everybody down – letting myself down, my family down – but you have to look at the silver lining. Hopefully I can get this thing fixed."

From Matt Gelb

Going down the shore for a three day weekend. Great timing. Will get to enjoy the ocean, do some fishing, beer drinking and not be tempted to watch the Dodgers dismantle the home team. It is time for a break from this lost season. Enough is enough.

As bad as they are, I'm ok with it because of 2008. Always makes me smile.

With the season over, why are they bringing Halladay back so quickly? He's a great pitcher but he just came off surgery and he isn't young. It just smells like they're trying to find a way to keep some seats full at the potential expense of Halladay's health.

Who the hell is running our medical staff? A few coincidences is one thing, but I can't think of a single injury/health situation that's been managed well over the last three years. If you're paying these guys as much money as you are, you'd think your first thought would be to make sure they're well taken care of.

@Robbie: Absolutely. Halfway through most of these dismal games I go watch some of the old highlights. Watched the Lidge ones when they had the ceremony for him, watched the Lee game with his nonchalant catch against the Yankees. Watched some of Ruiz' clutch hitting.

Easiest way to get over that miserable feeling I get from some of these games. The internet is awesome.

@rockaintdeadyet so many memories off the top of my head from that season: Blanton's WS homer off Edwin Jackson, all of Brett Myers' postseason ABs, Victorino preserving Lidge's perfect season with the rope to home against Atlanta, Chooch's squib walkoff in the WS, Bruntlett vs Price, Geoff Jenkins, JC Romero earning two WS wins, Madson and Utley getting out of a bases loaded jam against the Dodgers in the NLCS with the bang-bang DP to set the stage for Vic and Stairs ...

Point is, I could go on and on just from that season, not counting 07, and 09-11 because we witnessed a truly enjoyable period of baseball. Just think back to 08 when the Phils went 15-3 against the Braves, my favorite accomplishment from that season (other than the title, of course). The Braves have rebounded, and I have hope the Phils will too.

Cosart pitched well tonight in LV. Oh wait, that say HOU.

says. dammit.

Structural issue in the knee? Uh..don't tell me they didn't know about this.

Halladay...2 rehab starts...thats it. This organization doesn't learn does it?

Thank you for that, Robbie. It helped.

Apart from '08, which is the obvious and perhaps happiest choice, and the '09 playoffs and Doc's no-hitters, I'll probably remember this era for two broader regular season moments which occurred over a matter of weeks:

1. The dominant '11 season, when their swagger reached its peak and their talent differential over the rest of the league was at its greatest. Winning games really is fun!

2. The '07 surge to catch up to and pass the Mets. Similar runs have happened in the years since, even to the Phils a couple of times, but scoreboard watching had never been this intensely thrilling for me. And, in best Philly sports fashion, and this is the part no one seems to remember -- they blew it! Were a game up with two to play, after coming from 7 back in 17 days, but Eaton lost the penultimate game against the Nats and suddenly they were tied with the Mets again! Of course, on the last day of the season, Tom Glavine gave up seven runs to the Fish in the first inning and it was a cakewalk. But what heart palpitations!

Howard-Brown-Ruf
40hr-40hr-40hr
next year
WFC

***Entering Wednesday, Los Angeles was 69-50 and 39-8 since June 22, which is the best 47-game run in baseball since the Giants went 39-8 in 1951.
***

THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT, THE GIANTS WIN THE PENNANT


So we can safely assume the Dodgers are stealing signs through a highly complex scoreboard system with a buzzer in the home dugout then?

***Structural issue in the knee? Uh..don't tell me they didn't know about this.***

MRIs cost money.

I just saw/realized that Dom Brown's agent is Scott Boras...so we won't be extending him on some team friendly long-term deal ever then.

Oh well.

Was Boras always his agent?

Hey, remember when we decided to hold on to everyone at the trade deadline so that we could bring this same team back again next season?

That was awesome.

Ruf is definitely going to finish with the 3rd most HRs on the team behind Brown and Utley.

I don't even know if there are 'silver linings' at this point. Maybe just moral victories.

I am interested in seeing Halladay pitch but I have no idea why he would be back here after just 2 rehab starts. Yeah the Phils are short-handed in the rotation and it has been awful since the ASB.

I'm sure Halladay wants to get back ASAP and pitch to demonstrate his value to potential FA suitors. What is the difference though between say 5-6 starts vs 3-4 starts especially if he performs poorly in one of his first starts back because he doesn't have much arm strength?

It's been really hard to watch this team mishandle injury and injury and injury the past 2-3 years. Really hurt the competitiveness of the team.

Is Cody Asche "The Answer" at 3b? I hope that Sandberg switches DOM and RUF next year. I kind of like the outfield of RUFBENDOM.

Jack - They could have moved M. Young or Chooch but it seems pretty likely that neither will be back. JRoll said he wouldn't way his '10 and 5' rights.

They already DFA D. Young and Nix and are letting Asche start everyday at 3B.

Who else should they moved and called up to start?

MG: They could've traded Lee. I don't believe Rollins when he says he wouldn't have waived his NTC--most players just use the NTC for leverage. I also would've considered dealing Utley, even though the extension he signed was fine for the team. It's good value, but it doesn't move the franchise forward at all, which they so obviously need to do and yet refuse to do.

M. Young and Chooch, it goes without saying should've been dealt. Basically anyone and everyone who could've brought back anything of value.

The team is 53-67. Why would anyone be untouchable?

Denny: I bet you Wells has a better WAR in 2014 than Mayberry.

Posted by: lorecorn
**********
Do it, Denny. When lorecore says "I bet you" he means,"Don't worry, I'll never say another thing about it once I realize how stupid a bet it is."

I have my pick of seven FA pitchers next year, two of which have to outpitch Cliff Lee in ERA+. Or don't I, lorecore?

The terms are two tickets to a 2014 Phils playoff game or, in the likely event of none existing, two tickets to a November Eagles home game.

Deal?

bittel: I'm on board with your 7 FA pitchers, and agree to let you pick two more pitchers(soon) to replace any pitcher who falls short of a min 100 IP threshold. 2 of those 7 Pitchers need to have a better ERA+ than Cliff Lee (min 100 IP) at the end of the 2014 season.

terms: loser writes a minimum 25 line on why the winner's theory about why the Phillies walked 5 times against Jason Marquis on June 25, 2013 is the correct theory, and forfeits to ever say otherwise in the future.

Posted by: lorecore | Wednesday, July 31, 2013 at 09:51 PM

Thank goodness for the rain delay, as I didn't catch a single pitch of that game. I don't understand rushing Halladay back. I completely understand that he needs to be worked out/stretched out, etc. If he comes back and pitches every fifth day and only throws a few innings just to give him some work, then fine, that makes some sense. Being that the season is over, I'd rather him pitch to Major League hitters to get his work in, rather than Gulf Coast League hitters. But, f he comes back after only two rehab starts and throws 100+ pitches, I have a HUGE problem with that.

Little victories are all that matter at this point in the season. Dom had a good night. Ruf hit another HR. The bullpen only gave up one run in over 6 innings of work.

The season is over, so who cares if they win or lose. I watch the games to see glimpses into the future (although I missed last night). Asche is no world-beater, but he seems to be, at worst, an adequate enough 3B to stick around for awhile.

They'll have four assumed starters in 2014 (Brown, Revere, Ruf and Asche) on the roster making a combined ~$2M. That's a nice change for the Phils. Another positive.

noname: How is that better than DOMBENRUF?
(which actually sounds like a real German word)

Cosart has pitched well in each of his major league starts. It's almost as depressing a thought as watching the rest of this season play out. Villar is a SB machine right now for them, but I was pretty happy ith the Oswalt trade.

Halladay is a FA once they decline his option, why should the Phillies care if he comes back too early/late? If they are thinking about trying to re-sign him, then they obviously need to get see him in action sooner than later.

Andy- Dom has a better arm and more range. He belongs in right over Ruf RUFBENDOM is the way to go.

R - I don't know what to do, man...it's all falling apart.

M - Stay strong, my brother.

R - But, the hitting, the pitching, it's all gone wrong.

M - You just need to believe in yourself.

R - But I was wrong about so much...

M - No. You were right. It is about production. It's just that the guys, well, sometimes things don't fall the right way for them.

R - It was going to be a team of aces...

M - It still can be, man. Bring back Roy.

R - He's not ready. He'll only get two rehab starts.

M - It's enough, my friend. It's enough. Even though he is not as strong or as versatile as me, he is a warrior, too. Bring him back and he will achieve greatness.

Ruben - Greatness? Like you?

Michael - Well. No one should expect the impossible. But his own kind of greatness. Bring him back.

Lannan will get rocked tonight. At least 5 runs in 4 IP. DFA him already, he stinks out loud!

Posted by: Mini Mart for Prez | Wednesday, August 14, 2013 at 04:06 PM

Oh well, missed it by 2 2/3 IP. Injury or no injury, Lannan is terrible. I don't want him back. He reminds me of the terrible Nats teams the Phillies used to beat up on; so what does it say that he's now on the Phillies? He's gotta go.

noname - I know that and agree. I was not making an actual baseball skills argument. Just a silly, name-inspired argument.

Added to the terms gladly. Or substituted for the terms, if that's what you wish.

Cosart has returned $1.63 per dollar bet so far in his career. SSS and all, but that is outstanding.

bittel: substituted, theres no way I'm making a monetary bet with a person over the internet that won't come to fruition in over a year.

Your names are due the end of the 2013 regular season.

Andy: is that Michael Ciccotti?

Lannon is handed script to read.... "My knee didnt feel right. Everytime I pitched it made popping and clicking noises. I rested it a bit but felt like I could just pitch through it. We will have it evaluated and see what happens. I still think I can pitch this year or be ready for Spring Training."

So for those complaining about Ruf's slump the other day. What if he had the kind of slump he had the last 10 games for a full year. Hmmm, that would be over 100 RBIs and 60HRs. OK I could live with that kind of a slump.

Cuban - There's only one Michael in the Phillies organization wise and VERSATILE to offer such sage advice.

Now is the perfect time to bring Hernandez and Galvis back and put Utley at first.

Cosart is really PRODUCING. RK- That kind of Production out of Ruf is what Rube is looking for. Ruf's walk rate of 10.2% is unacceptable thus far. Man's gotta swing the bat more...

MG: Jack has no names because he just wanted them dumped. He wanted them gone. It would make him feel better.

Jack - I would still argue it wasn't nearly as easy to move Lee as people think given his no-trade clause and the money he was owed.

It is all nice and easy to say the Phils should just absorb $6-$8M/year for the remainder of his contract & pick up some portion of his buyout but that is alot easier said than done.

Also the much larger issue of trying to remain a competitive team before the TV contract is renegotiated and finalized.

clout - Yeah and the larger issue is if they moved players who do they call up to let them start in their place.

This system is completely devoid of any reliever depth, it has almost exhausted its starting pitching depth, and they have called up every positional player worth giving a look with Ruf & Asche up.

Maybe Galvis if you somehow think he should be playing everyday at SS. It is just a system very short on MLB-ready talent right now.

Anyone who saw Ruf's throw on that double last night knows that Phame is correct: There is no way Ruf should be in RF and Dom in Lf. It's beyond ridiculous.

Also, anyone who actually watched last night's game (probably 2 of the dozen commenters) worried about Asche's glove?

G: That's exactly right. There are 2 problems here:

1. If you deal them you won't get anything of value to help you in the future, so it makes no sense as a rebuilding move.

2. You have no one to replace them.

Personally I don't think Galvis will ever hit enough to be an everyday player. That said, I'd play him every day for the rest of the season switching among 2B, SS and 3B.

... why should the Phillies care if [Halladay] comes back too early/late? If they are thinking about trying to re-sign him, then they obviously need to get see him in action sooner than later.

Correct. They need to get him into action, not have him pitch an extraordinary amount and risk further injury. That's the difference. And I believe that distinction is what most of us are talking about.

MG I don't agree. If you look at Rollins career a .328 OBP as a leadoff is not so hot I think Galvis may develop into a Rollins (without the HRs but Rollins HRs always looked a bit odd to me).
At the very least its worth playing these guys regularly between now and the rest of the year to see what they can do before RAJ starts to monkey with the team in the fall.

Also, anyone who actually watched last night's game (probably 2 of the dozen commenters) worried about Asche's glove?

I didn't watch last night, but only every other inning of his short MLB career, so I answer thusly: Not really. It's not good. But he is, as a stated above, "adequate enough."

Billingsly: He's certainly adequate enough for a 65-win team, as is Michael Young, but the question they need to answer is this: Is he good enough to play 3B every day for a contender?

is the cuban pitcher officially not signing? i havent seen much recent news on that.

thanks

Cosart is in for a pretty rough readjustment if his peripherals hold up. His strand rate and BABIP are unsustainable by Sandy Koufax let alone Jarred Cosart.

He's got a pretty good GB rate though and if he can get the BB% under control, he could be a very good MLB pitcher...IF.

clout: depends on who you put around Asche. Did Placido Polanco have enough bat to man corner position for a contender? no. But the team around him was good enough to make up for the deficiency.

Asche has flashed good range but rough instincts at 3B...and his arm is a bit iffy.

If he works hard and improves, he'll be average defensively. If not, he'll probably only be a stopgap either way so...not really a huge issue.

***Did Placido Polanco have enough bat to man corner position for a contender***

He was also an elite GG level defender at 2B and 3B...legitimately one of the best gloves in the game too...not a Bobby Abreu GG.

Kendrick and the Phils crush Kershaw and the Dodgers.

Book it.

I thought they'd end up putting Utley at 1B to end the year for a couple of reasons.

1. It would save some wear-and-tear on Chase's legs, and give him some more experience at 1B.

2. It would give the team a chance to evaluate Hernandez and/or Galvis at 2B as potential everyday or part-time players for the future.

We'll see if it happens.

I got in an argument with my brother over Dom and Ruf in the OF...he's usually a pretty astute baseball guy but his reasoning was that since LF sees more balls (as more hitters are RH even at the MLB level), it did kinda make sense to leave Brown there due to his significantly greater range as Ruf's lack of range could at least be hidden in RF even with his mediocre arm.

Thoughts?

Even losing a good step defensively, Chase is still a pretty good defender at 2B. He loses a lot of value if you put him at 1B.

clout: Depending on who else is on the roster, my answer is yes.

That answer is predicated on the fact that the NL East is bad. If the Division gets no better and the Phils make some moves in the off-season and stay healthy (all long shots, I understand), then I believe he won't hurt them. They could "contend."

If there is a true, major upgrade at 3B available, of course the Phils should take a shot. But, if the alternative is a Michael Young type, then I'd rather roll the dice with Asche.

NEPP: the point is, if the 2014 Phillies are relying on Asche to be a defensive star for them to be a contender, then they aren't a contender. In kind, if a team in 2011 was looking to Polly to be a main source of power in the lineup, they would probably not have been a contender either.

NEPP: That's a great debate. The question you'd have to answer is whether the difference in range in LF (in terms of costing runs)is greater then the difference in arm and range in RF?

Because CBP has a relatively small LF, I'd argue that you can live with Ruf there, particularly if you have a burner in CF like Revere. The bad arm and lack of range is just a killer in RF because it puts runners into scoring position.

***The question you'd have to answer is whether the difference in range in LF (in terms of costing runs)is greater then the difference in arm and range in RF?***

Yes it is...my stance is that Brown's arm is worth more in RF than his range in LF...thus put the stronger arm in RF.

Speaking of position players in the system, Harold Martinez has been hitting lately. For a change. (I still need convincing.)

Some of Cosart's peripherals:

4.95 SIERA
4.42 xFIP
4.15 K/9
4.15 BB/9
.239 BABIP
87.0% LOB

Those last 3 are the most concerning, Dickie. He's always had command issues (hence the high BB rate) and that .239 BABIP and 87% LOB rate are unsustainable. Even very elite SP don't have those outside of rare exceptions.

He's got a great GB rate so his HR% should stay low and he doesn't need to have a super high SO/9 rate to be elite but those others are concerning.

He's treading water as a rookie though...which is good to see. If he were in a Phillies uniform, I assume he'd be blown apart in 3-4 starts and have an ERA around 11...given our luck of late.

nepp: 55.5% of PA have been by RHB. That is too small for me to think that range is LF is enough to offset an arm in RF.

Both Franco and Dugan are looking decent in Reading...Franco, of course, much higher than Dugan prospect-wise. He hit the ground running in AA, hit a lull period and seems to be readjusting and heating back up of late.

Dugan stuggled migthily at first, went on fire and has struggled a bit of late but he's still hitting for average. He's 22 so he's age apropriate. I'm starting to think he'll start 2014 in AA again and hopefully jump to AAA fairly early on if he keeps hitting. His bat is for real IMHO.

***55.5% of PA have been by RHB. That is too small for me to think that range is LF is enough to offset an arm in RF.***

I agree...

Asche is a stop-gap in '14 and maybe partially into '15 and nothing more if they intend on keeping Franco at 3B which they have given every indication they indeed on doing.

Can Ashe play short?

Adding to the memories of '08 listed above: Utley throwing out Bartlett at home in Game 5; a big game against the Mets in August where the Phillies came back from 5 or 6 runs down late to tie the game and won in extra innings behind Chris Coste's 4-for-4 off the bench. I believe that was the same game where, for some strategic reason, Chooch played third base for an inning late in the game.

" I also would've considered dealing Utley, even though the extension he signed was fine for the team. It's good value, but it doesn't move the franchise forward at all, which they so obviously need to do and yet refuse to do."


Jack, I agree with part of that, but I'm wondering what you think constitutes moving "the franchise forward"?

I ask that, because if Utley can give them 2-3 more seasons like this year he's quite valuable.

Obviously, your statement implies that they could have gotten more value that 2-3 years of Utley playing at a reasonably high level.

Please elaborate.

I'm not sure LF actually see more action than RF. I don't know an easy way to test this, but here's a back-of-the-envelope argument:

The league leaders in putouts among RF:
Pence SFG 282
Rios CWS/TEX 240
Bruce CIN 240
Markakis BAL 237
Aoki MIL 209

The league leaders in putouts among LF:
Gordon KCR 226
Soriano CHC/NYY 197
Brantley CLE 191
McLouth BAL 189
Murphy TEX 174

All kinds of issues with this analysis, of course (worse athletes tend to end up in LF, and worse athletes probably get to fewer balls; ignores balls that aren't caught; most of the RF on the list have played more games than the LF on the list; etc.), but it seems to suggest that RF gets more action, or that the difference is negligible enough that the arm effects should dominate the decision-making.

2008 seems so far away, now. At least we kicked the Dodgers in the NLCS in 2008. This weekend, I fear, that we'll be on the receiving end of the kicking.

There is more of a class for trading JRoll than Utley especially because of his declining performance and more importantly what happens next year when the Phils get to a point this time next year when the issue of JRoll's vesting option comes up.

Do the Phils really bench their franchise SS to limit his vesting option from being fufilled? Do they have to move him at the deadline next year but have their hands tied because of JRoll's '10 and 5' rights?

The lack of a WS win in '10 or '11 really is what will hang Amaro out to dry. If the team had won a title either of those years, Amaro would still be largely immune from criticism right now.

They didn't and the whole theme of 'He took over a WS champ and drove them into the ground' is what will play though.

"I'm not sure LF actually see more action than RF."


There used to be a way to look it up on either fangraphs or b-r.com. It might require a subscription.

IIRC, RF see more chances than LF.

No, Asche is not an option at SS.

Here are the Phillies stats:

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/PHI/2013-fielding.shtml


In 2013, RF have had 259 chances and LF have had 196 chances.

I haven't checked other teams, but that's a pretty big difference.


OK, before I hit "post" I checked the Nats and the Braves. While the spread for those two teams isn't as wide, the same is true.
There are more chances in RF than LF.

The same is true in Miami and NYM:

More chances in RF than LF.

I'll bet it's true throughout MLB, which is why they've always stuck defensively challenged players out in LF.

Think Killebrew, Luzinski, Frank Howard...

BTW, because we know about the Phillies vaunted scouting department - and their pride therein - here's another question:

Who's getting paid more this season - John Lannan or Francisco Liriano?

Villar is a SB machine right now, but I was pretty happy ith the Oswalt trade.
-
The Phillies only needed Oswalt because they traded away Lee in the offseason for Ramirez, Aumont, and Gillies. Still happy?

Jake, why are you always so negative?

Note on Franco: despite his ridiculous start at AA, and his all around status as the top infield prospect in the system, we constantly hear that there are problems with his "approach," whatever that means. There is a caveat: he still has some development ahead of him, which might not, actually, occur successfully. Asche might need to be here a while.

Haha - me, negative?

Think Killebrew, Luzinski, Frank Howard...

I see those guys and raise you a elmn Young. :)

The old Senators played Jim Lemon in RF for 3 years between '56-'58. Roy Sievers manned LF for them. Whitey Herzog was their CF in '56, no wonder his hair turned white!

Both Sievers (62-64) and Lemon (63) played for the Phils in their last years.

Yeah, Jake. Put on some rosy glasses and spread some sunshine once in a while. geez.

Jacoby Ellsbury is having a fantastic contract year. An interesting name to consider when the offseason approaches with a protected draft pick.

Ellsbury is fools gold...add in his Agent (Boras) and its not going to happen. He smells like BJ Upton basically.

Any live reports on how Halladay looks? Velocity? Command?

I see he's pitched 2 inning so far.

Groundout-K looking-Lineout

Groundout-Groundout-Single-Groundout

Top 3 starting now.

From Twitter:

Philly Inquirer: 1st inning: 16 pitches, 10 strikes. 2nd inning: 12 pitches, 7 strikes, 1 hit, 3 ground outs.

Clifford2008: Gun currently has Halladay's FB sitting at 85 and topping at 86. Curve at 76. It's a start. #RoyWatch

I don't know who Clifford is.

Inquirer: Halladay's 3rd inning of first rehab start: 3 batters faced, 9 pitches, 5 strikes. No line drives hit off Doc so far.

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