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Wednesday, August 21, 2013

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Don't expect Doc back next year. He says it's not about money, but winning. Says he will pay to be on a winner if he has to.

Here is how Ryne's evaluation will go in October:

Rube: Would you like to manage next year?

Ryne: Not if you sign guys like Delmon and tell me I have to play them everyday.

Rube: Um... we'll get back to you.

at least jimenez looked good. and he gets style points , too, for the high socks.

Jimenez won't look good when they need him to. Or, at least that's how this team seems to roll.

I'm really hoping Doc can pitch well in September. If he does, the Phils can tender him an offer which he will probably refuse - then we'll get a draft pick out of him. At least that will be something for the 20 mil we paid him this year.

Why would we get a draft pick from Doc if we tender him a contract and he refuses?

A-Train, the Phils would have to tender an offer to get a draft pick. The number would be somewhere around 13-14 Million.

I didn't read the game thread but did anyone hear Sarge call out JMJ on his "heart"? Something to the effect that he doesn't have the heart to be good, he's too easy going, he doesn't get mad.

It sounds like Sarge talks to Mayberry a lot -- I wonder if that helps keep him screwed up offensively.

Baer thinks they should pick up Bernadina. Is that site still being hacked?

Baseball Prospectus had some very nice things to say about Gabriel Lino, the catcher we got in the Thome trade with the Orioles, here
(subscriber-only link):

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=21580

They called Lino the "most impressive physical specimen" at the NYPL All-Star Game, and said he had "easy plus raw" power, a 7 (on a 2-to-8 scale) arm, and is a "legit prospect" with "lots of development remaining."

Ice, if Bernadina is the stake through the heart of MiniMart's Phillies career, I'm all for it.

Why on Earth would Doc refuse a tender offer? That's a huge amount and more than he could ever expect in FA

Sure, let's get Bernadina. Might as well coax David Doster and Calvin Maduro out of retirement while we're at it.

I'm with NEPP - I can't see Doc refusing a qualifying offer, and therefore I don't see the Phillies giving him one.

I'm with NEPP. Doc would be crazy to reject a qualifying offer (~$14M). If the Phils offer it, he'll take it.

As for what Doc will actually get, he'll almost certainly end up with an incentive-based deal. Something like $2M guaranteed base with another $8M in incentives based on starts/innings, with a vesting option of around $10M guaranteed for 2015 if he hits all the incentives and isn't on the DL at the end of 2014, seems like a fair offer.

Agreed - Doc takes a $14M deal in a heartbeat, can't afford to make a QO to him.

Boston made Victorino switch to RH hitting only earlier this month. He has a .910 OPS in his 41 PA as a RHB vs RHP.

Damn double post. Is anyone else experiencing serious delays on posting? It's taking my posts about five minutes to show up.

DOM has slowed down vs LHP as of late, but it's hard to get down on him last nite facing de la Rosa and Brothers, they've been amongst the best L v L pitchers in the entire league this year.

Amaro won't offer a qualifying offer to Halladay. No reason. Just a question if he shows any improvement in his rehab starts & what his last couple of starts at the MLB level look like.

Sounds like he is cooked though. He is barely getting in the upper 80s and in order to do so is losing control & command in the process.

Unless Bernadina learns to switch-hit, Mini Mart will remain stakeless. Versatility.

Mini Mac? We hardly knew ye...

Colonel, $2 million?

that's just pure speculation at this point. The guy has had 2 rehab starts, his doctor has told him the velocity will come, and he's got a lot of work to do.

Frankly, we don't know what he's going to look like 30 days from now.

BUT, IF he's able to go 6-7 IP and looks good - that is, his velocity improves and he can locate and command, then he could easily get a one-year deal like Haren's, which would equal a QO.

OTOH, if he doesn't improve and looks like sh8t, he may wind up like Brandon Webb.

Way to early to tell, and thus futile to speculate.

"Damn double post. Is anyone else experiencing serious delays on posting? It's taking my posts about five minutes to show up."


It's been that way for a couple days.

***Boston made Victorino switch to RH hitting only earlier this month. He has a .910 OPS in his 41 PA as a RHB vs RHP.***

Wait...you can actually tell a player to change like that and they'll do it?!? No way. Its a shame the Phillies didn't try that 3 years ago.

I also wish Vic was still on the roster...this team really misses his energy. Brown/Revere/Vic from left to right is a much nicer OF than our current options...and a million times better than DYoung

***BUT, IF he's able to go 6-7 IP and looks good - that is, his velocity improves and he can locate and command, then he could easily get a one-year deal like Haren's, which would equal a QO.***

Most GMs see Haren's deal as a massive mistake by a guy who had money to burn. I'd imagine Doc will get something more along the lines of 1 year, $8-10 million as a base if he shows he's healthy in Sept. If not, I expect it to something like 1 year $5 million base with incentives...the typical "roll the dice" deal for a guy that was formerally a very elite pitcher.

MG, sounds like Doc is cooked?

There you go again. As I mentioned to the colonel above, it sure doesn't sound like he's "cooked" here:

"http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20130820&content_id=57698010&vkey=news_phi&c_id=phi


A few key quotes:

"""I was happy with the way my pitches, especially my cutter, which is not an easy pitch for me, came along from the fourth inning on." Halladay said. "I was also happy with my changeup and sinker.""


""A lot of bells go off when you drop below 92 or 90 [mph]," Halladay said. "The doctors tell me that's the last thing to come back. I feel three or four miles per hour will come back."

""I was able to do some things with the hitters because my cutter was working," Halladay said."

""I'm a lot more effective than I was before the surgery," Halladay said. "I have movement I didn't have before it. If I have this all back, except for a few clicks in velocity that could come back, I'm happy three months after surgery."


That doesn't sound to me like Doc thinks he's "cooked".

So, should I trust your evaluation at this point or his and his doctor's?

awh: Even if you try to twist numbers around to tell me how a 37yr old post-surgery Halladay is worth $14M next year, good luck trying to twist the Phillies non-luxury-tax-paying payroll into being able to afford a $14M 37 yr old post-surgery Halladay.

Re: Vic being switched to RH only:

Man, I seem to recall conversation about that years ago (not sure if it was on this site or elsewhere).

I wonder how many of our players/prospects would be fairing better in another organization. Sometimes I worry that our coaches and developmental staff aren't the best...

NEPP --

If we had kept Vic, the OF would be Brown - Vic - DYoung/Ruf, with Worley in the rotation instead of Lannan.

"So, should I trust your evaluation at this point or his and his doctor's?"

Depends who the doctor is. if he's a Phillies employee, give me the seasoned BL poster's speculation.

"I wonder how many of our players/prospects would be fairing better in another organization. Sometimes I worry that our coaches and developmental staff aren't the best..."


hahahahhahhahahhahahahha


ramsey, welcome to the club.

2012 Roy and team doctors: Halladay is healthy
2012 seasoned BL posters: Halladay is hurt
2012 outcome: Halladay was hurt

2013 Roy and team doctors: Halladay is healthy
2013 seasoned BL posters: Halladay is hurt
2013 outcome: Halladay was hurt

If there is any chance to catch the Marlins keep Rollins in lead off spot

lore, in this care it's the doctor in NL who did the surgery who is telling Halladay about his velocity.

IIRC he has no affiliation with the Phillies.

But, hey, if you want to be cynical and negative (it's the Philly way), go ahead.

I like watching Halladay pitch well and hope his work ethic and talent allow his to do so again.

I guess you think he should be expecting to fail.

Ouch, should have said:

"lore, in this CASE it's the doctor in LA..."

"That doesn't sound to me like Doc thinks he's "cooked"."

And Doc has always proven to be such an astute judge of his own performance. Like back when he was pitching to an 8.65 ERA and telling us, after every start, that he felt great out there on the mound.

***If we had kept Vic, the OF would be Brown - Vic - DYoung/Ruf, with Worley in the rotation instead of Lannan.***

Yeah, I know what the reality would have been...I was just making a point that we still could have traded for Revere and moved Vic back to RF where he's a plus plus defender...or just gotten Revere and put him in RF where we'd still have 2 plus defenders to cover up for Brown's issues defensively.

We definitely wouldn't have had to roll the dice on DYoung at least.

If we're talking about the Phillies' medical staff and Halladay's self-assessment? I'll take Beerleaguer's opinion

2013 Chase and team doctors: Utley is healthy
2013 seasoned BL posters: Utley is cooked
2013 outcome: Utley was healthy

re: Sarge questioning Mayberry's "heart."

On Mayberry's hitting technique, especially the cha-cha with his back foot, Sarge occasionally stumbles into an insight. On Mayberry's ladk of "heart" for not "getting mad" when he's screwing up, Sarge is spouting his usual idiocy. For all his shortcomings, RFD does bring the Phils one rare attribute -- versatility.

"BUT, IF he's able to go 6-7 IP and looks good - that is, his velocity improves and he can locate and command, then he could easily get a one-year deal like Haren's, which would equal a QO."

Yeah, and IF the Phillies win their next 37 games of the season, they'd be 92-70 and might snag a wild-card spot.

Can we discuss realistic possibilities now?

Halladay has said he was fine much of the last 2 years until he ended up on the DL and the results/scouting observations speak for themselves so far. I wouldn't expect any different either especially since he is an impending FA.

Halladay is struggling to get out hitters at A ball so far. He might be able to rebound this offseason with a training regimen & a clean bill of health to be a middle-tier starter.

I guess I wouldn't mind the Phils taking a gamble on that if the base is low enough with alot of incentive upside. One of the few benefits though to the last 5 weeks of the season is the Phils will get a pretty good indication of where Halladay is really at though.

Does Halladay really think he will get back to 91-92 regularly next year and that he will be close to his old form?

Wonder how realistic he is and how that will impact that type of contract he signs this year.

awh: "I guess you think he should be expecting to fail."

No, I would love for Doc to regain greatness, but I don't think the Phillies should spend $14M of their self imposed budget on the prayer that it happens - as you are suggesting they do.

"I guess I wouldn't mind the Phils taking a gamble on that if the base is low enough with alot of incentive upside."

I am actually shocked at how many regular Beerleaguer posters think it would be a good idea to re-sign Halladay. To use an old cliche, the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again & expecting different results.

"2013 Chase and team doctors: Utley is healthy
2013 seasoned BL posters: Utley is cooked
2013 outcome: Utley was healthy"

2012 offseason: Utley and his agent state to Amaro (more like demand) that Utley wants to get treatment outside of the organization with a physical therapist in Arizona to deal with his knee condition.

BAP - That depends if Halladay shows any progress. If he is still struggling to even go 6 IP, BB at least 2-3 guys every outing, and gets hit very hard in some outings, then no.

And oddly, it worked because the Phillies doctors still believe in leeching and bleeding the patient from all accounts.

MG: Well, considering that he hasn't shown any progress in the last 2 years, and his first 2 rehab starts have both looked remarkably similar to what we've seen all year (even after the Phillies told us that he was in such great shape, he might only need one rehab start), it just seems wildly hypothetical to be discussing what we might do if he comes back & pitches well. And, considering that his eventual comeback will probably only consist of 3 to 4 starts, it also seems to me that it would be a wild overreaction to draw any conclusions from it -- no matter what happens.

It's kind of like discussing what we should do if we call up Freddy Galvis in September & he hits .400 for the month. There's no rational reason to believe it would ever happen and, even if it did, it would be crazy to plan your 2014 season around that one month of results.

BAP: It's the same problem people have had for like two years on here, and it's totally understandable as a fan. It's simply a refusal to know when the window has closed, whether for the team or for a player.

The truth is the window on the team closed two years ago, but no one wanted to acknowledge it. And so we keep having arguments about bringing back Halladay, or bringing back Rollins, or Utley, as if it makes any difference at all.

Haven't we learned what happens when you hold on to aging players too long? A 37-year-old Roy Halladay, coming off of surgery to repair a torn labrum (depsite how hard they tried to minimize the injury) is not someone I want to see re-signed.

"we keep having arguments about bringing back Halladay, or bringing back Rollins, or Utley, as if it makes any difference at all."

Call it the Sentimental Fan Syndrome.

Unfortunately our GM is fatally infected with SFS.

RE: Halladay. I completely agree with BAP. Unless he looks like Sandy Koufax when he's done rehab, there's no freaking way I want to invest $6mil-$14mil(whatever it may be) in hopes that Doc gets his stuff back. It's part and parcel of what is wrong with this franchise.

Odd that after they won the WFC, Gillick(?)/Amaro(?) said something to the effect of not holding on to players for "sentimental" reasons. I wish he really believed that.

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