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Thursday, August 22, 2013

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I think clout is missing a whole bunch thinking that JW has any relationship to this site on a daily operation basis or cares what he thinks. Comcast owns and operates this and The700level site and a few others as a cash resource where hooked losers go on a multiple time a day basis to get "the scoop". You'd do better to hit google news unless of course you need to prove how right you are or how you can guess better. This site is the online version of a corner sportsman's tavern in Mayfair for the most part.

Michael Martinez's posts in the last thread prove that the commenter is about as intelligent as the player is "versatile."

Reposted from the last thread:

I just looked up Revere's fielding stats. Per Fangraphs, he's been worth just 2.7 UZR/150 in center compared with 27.9 UZR/150 in RF.

Given the positional adjustment between those positions is ~10 runs/150, it looks like he would produce a lot more value in a corner outfield spot.

I think clout is missing a whole bunch thinking that JW has any relationship to this site on a daily operation basis or cares what he thinks. Comcast owns and operates this and The700level site and a few others as a cash resource where hooked losers go on a multiple time a day basis to get "the scoop". You'd do better to hit google news unless of course you need to prove how right you are or how you can guess better. This site is the online version of a corner sportsman's tavern in Mayfair for the most part.

Kyle Kendrick is like a box of chocolates. You never know what you're gonna get.

"Per Fangraphs, he's been worth just 2.7 UZR/150 in center compared with 27.9 UZR/150 in RF."

Those numbers are misleading. He's worth only 2.7 UZR in CF, and 27.9 in LF, because the average centerfielder gets to a whole lot more balls than the average left fielder. In other words: Revere's range doesn't magically improve when he moves from CF to LF; the comparison pool just gets a lot weaker.

In point of fact, a 2.7 UZR is still above league average and there's absolutely no one on the Phillies who can competently play CF if you move Revere to LF. So doing so makes no sense whatsoever.

ramsey:

"I just looked up Revere's fielding stats. Per Fangraphs, he's been worth just 2.7 UZR/150 in center compared with 27.9 UZR/150 in RF."

"Given the positional adjustment between those positions is ~10 runs/150, it looks like he would produce a lot more value in a corner outfield spot."

Exactly the point, ramsey. Revere is terrible in CF so talking about the value of the CF position in the abstract is inapposite, observations of the sub-zero intelligentsia notwithstanding. Sandberg has seen Revere in CF and, inlike the Magoo-like Cholly, understands that speed is secondary to reading and catching the ball. Bernadina is bad in CF but even r00b recognized that alternatives to Revere need to be considered.

Rather than move the no-power Revere to a corner spot, r00b would be smart to sell high and move him while the aura of his hitting binge remains. Span isn't getting it done in DC and Rizzo might be dumb enough to take Revere off r00b's hands.

BAP --

That's the point. Any center fielder is going to have a higher UZR in LF than in CF, because he's being compared against worse fielders. But if he gains more than ~10 runs per year by the switch, his WAR is maximized in LF rather than CF.

If Brown can handle CF better than he handles LF (big if, I realize), then flipping Brown/Revere would be an upgrade to both defensive positions.

If you were Jroll, would you now waive your NTC since Sandberg seems to want something different in terms of practice and gameplay from him?

Mini-Mart: See my post above. You're misinterpreting the stat.

This site is the online version of a corner sportsman's tavern in Mayfair for the most part.- Who Knew


What's wrong with that?

ramsey: And as everyone knows, maximizing WAR is why we play the game.

Nothing wrong with Mayfair but I'm more comfortable in Kensington.

FYI, Jamie Moyer's book is coming out soon.

The Moyer Foundation ‏@moyerfoundation 53s
@jmo50moyer swung by the office this week to sign advanced copies of "Just Tell Me I Can't." Pre-order yours today! pic.twitter.com/UcBplKwDTE

It's available for pre-order on Amazon.

Ramsey: Is our goal to maximize Ben Revere's WAR, or is our goal to put the Phillies in the best position to win games? If you saved 10 runs a year in LF by moving Revere to that position, how many runs do you think we'd lose by moving a defensive stiff like Mayberry or Dom to CF to replace Revere?

This is exactly the kind of mi-use of WAR that I often rail about.

Who knew - Chiding others with a stupid post about these sites being 'money makers.' That's not the purpose at all of why Comcast purchased them.

"mi-use" = misuse

BAP --

If a player's UZR/150 is more than 10 runs greater in LF than in CF, then playing that player in LF and a replacement-level player in CF is a better alignment than playing that player in CF and a replacement-level player in LF.

Whether Revere should play CF or LF obviously depends on who will replace him in each case. Thus it seems he should play CF because Dom and Ruf need to play somewhere, and we don't have another decent CF option. But his WAR is still maximized in LF.

One thing we should all agree on: Brown's arm is wasted in LF:

jbird, it was an inapt comparison, as there is no Kenzinger on tap at Beerleaguer.

(I was going to type Schmidt's, but that would be showing my age)

jbird --

Maximizing wins is the point. And if we had a perfectly liquid market for talent, this would be equivalent to maximizing all players' WAR.

In reality, the market is not perfectly liquid, and so we sometimes play players out of position.

I wonder if Roy Halladay is reading Jamie's book. The subtitle makes it sound perfect for him:

Just Tell Me I Can't: How Jamie Moyer Defied the Radar Gun and Defeated Time

Jake: love the throw-back unis in the gif

Wonder how Michael "The Beast" Morse would look in this lineup.

I would love it if the Phillies signed Morse as a depth-signing, not as a starter.

Morse could provide depth to the Phil's DL.

Mike G: BL Tip for you, You gotta ask the question in a 3rd different way before you get a response.

Posted by: Bedrosian's Beard | Thursday, August 22, 2013 at 01:58 PM

I guess maybe Beard is right. Here goes. I didn't think Revere was even expected to play this year, Am I wrong on that?

Dickie - That's exactly why I'd only like him for depth. Too many injuries.

@Jake, but RAJ would never do that. He'd sign him as the starting RF.

"If a player's UZR/150 is more than 10 runs greater in LF than in CF, then playing that player in LF and a replacement-level player in CF is a better alignment than playing that player in CF and a replacement-level player in LF."

First of all, you're confusing WAR with UZR. "Replacement player" is a WAR concept. A "replacement level" centerfielder would actually be a very bad centerfielder - like AAA caliber. That's what a replacement player is. And if you're using "replacement level" to refer to his defense, then that replacement level defensive player would cost us far more runs in CF than Ben Revere would save us in LF or RF.

I think what you mean is a league average defensive centerfielder (which is about what Revere is, at absolute worst). But the point you keep missing is that, if you took just about ANY league average centerfielder, and moved him to LF, he would gain just as much UZR/WAR as Ben Revere would with the same switch.

FWIW: 8/20/13 http://articles.mcall.com/2013-08-20/sports/mc-phillies-john-lannan-ryan-howard-0829-20130820_1_ryan-howard-ben-revere-medical-updates

Revere, who has been out since July 14 and is recovering from surgery for a broken bone in his right foot, ditched his crutches yesterday, Proefrock said he is finally weight-bearing.

"He's headed in the right direction as well," Proefrock said. "Hopefully, I don't know whether Ryan or Ben will be back on the field here or in Florida, but the expectation is that they'll be back on the field somewhere before the end of the season. Whether it's up here, whether they're playing in instructional league, I don't know."

To clarify my first point in the above post:

WAR is indexed relative to the average replacement player (a AAA caliber player).

UZR is indexed relative to the league average player. A 0.0 UZR is league average, not replacement level.

You are muddling the two concepts & it's leading you to erroneous conclusions.

I like to go scouting for drunk lonely and confused male gym teachers at 3 am in bathrooms at bars in Port Richmond.

BAP --

The point is simply that a single player's value is maximized at the position where he has the greatest (position + defense) score. That's USUALLY the position of the highest defensive value where they are minimally competent, but it need not be.

I disagree that any CF moved to LF would gain more than 10 runs in UZR. If this were true, teams would employ more light-hitting good glove players in corner outfield spots. Either that, or the (position + defense) statistics are miscalculated.

Charlie is on WIP right now. He just admitted that he thought Dallas Greene was out of line for his comments in 06. I like it. It is about time someone spoke up about Greene being a waste of space.

Ok, thanks Jake.

BAP --

I'm not muddling the concepts. Defense relative to position is a component of WAR.

Suppose Revere were a 2 WAR player in CF, and he would gain +20 fielding -10 positional by moving to LF. Then he would be a 3 WAR player in LF.

"I disagree that any CF moved to LF would gain more than 10 runs in UZR. If this were true, teams would employ more light-hitting good glove players in corner outfield spots."

No, they wouldn't. Because what you'd gain in defense (at a position that doesn't get more than 1-2 chances per game) you'd more than lose in offense. Do you want Casper Wells in RF next year? His UZR is terrific.

I was listening to WIP the other day and a caller asked RAJ to rate himself on this season and RAJ gave himself a C-. I would obviously rate him much lower, but C- is about as low as I would expect a GM to rate himself publicly.

BAP --

WAR is the sum of 4 components:

A: Offense relative to league average
B: Defense relative to position average
C: Positional adjustment
D: Replacement level adjustment

WAR = A+B+C+D. Changing positions won't affect A or D, so any move that increases B+C will increase WAR.

Dickie: "Ruben is not making independent decisions. He's going with a pretty good group of eyes who are looking out there at players and making determinations. God knows we're all trying to bat 1.000 on decision making. The reality is, I think we do better than the .300 standard in baseball."

Rube fired me cause the Illuminati and George Soros got all worked up by me sayin "Chinese Bandit", then he turned around and promoted Sandberg and called up and got Hosni Mubarak out. He's got a superbox at CBP ya know.

Problem is that most of the Phillies position players are average at best.

Ruiz = average but could be hurt
Howard = probably below average unless his power returns big time
Utley = above average but declining
Rollins = average since still above average fielder at SS
Asche = below average but improving
Brown = above average
Revere = low OPS not compensated by his speed, defense not as good as predicted but will it improve
Ruf = above average now but I think he regresses.

Not sure who is available who would be a huge improvement over what they have. Getting a stud CF would push Revere into competition with Ruf for the 4th OF spot. Who is more valuable overall?

Suppose Phillies signed Shin-Soo Choo. Would it be better to play him in CF (with Ruf and Brown) or in RF (with Revere and Brown)?

Do Phillies think that Cesar Hernandez would have a similar profile as Revere, making Revere available in a trade? I assume Revere is less valuable now than he was last year.

ramsey: Keep in mind that WAR overweights B and underweights A, which is how some less than star caliber players often end up with very high WAR.

Amaro obviously believes in some severe grade inflation.

If a team only wins 70 games and the GM rates himself a 'C-' I wonder how many wins would correspond to an 'F'? 50? 55?

PhxPhilly: Pretty good analysis.

They won 3 of 4 against the nationals before the all star break. Check your facts before you post them bro.

"Exactly the point, ramsey. Revere is terrible in CF so talking about the value of the CF position in the abstract is inapposite, observations of the sub-zero intelligentsia notwithstanding. Sandberg has seen Revere in CF and, inlike the Magoo-like Cholly, understands that speed is secondary to reading and catching the ball. Bernadina is bad in CF but even r00b recognized that alternatives to Revere need to be considered.

Rather than move the no-power Revere to a corner spot, r00b would be smart to sell high and move him while the aura of his hitting binge remains. Span isn't getting it done in DC and Rizzo might be dumb enough to take Revere off r00b's hands."

There aren't three words strung together in these paragraphs that can be considered anything other than completely nonsensical.

The Phils should tell Dallas Green he is going to evaluate some players in Clearwater and just buy him a one-way ticket to Tampa.

clout --

Why do you think WAR overweights defense relative to offense?

Dallas Greene: [narrating] That's when I knew I would never have come back from Florida alive.

ramsey: Just my opinion, although it's shared by others. WAR underweights offense, overrates defense.

Revere isn't a premium centerfielder, but he's not nothing either. He's certainly a lot better than Mayberry.

But, Dom did play centerfield in AAA and appeared to be much more at east in that position. Didn't see a lot of him there, but did see some and didn't see any of the horrendous stuff he sometimes does in left field. I'm pretty sure he won't be an elite outfielder in centerfield, but what is the problem with trying at this point? And Revere in a corner does somewhat negate his arm problem.

Oh, and having the Roku attached to my new TV has done a world of good. The MLBTV app has the ability to substituted in the radio feed, just like on the internet. But it seems even more stable. I never have to listen to TMac or Sarge at all. I was getting pretty tired of moving over to the opposing broadcast for the middle innings.

Compared to TMac and Sarge, Wheels sounds like the best broadcaster in baseball. And Franzke and LA are both better than any of them. Makes the game much more enjoyable.

"WAR underweights offense, overrates defense."

That's a pretty common criticism of WAR. A related criticism is that, while it weighs defense quite heavily, the defensive metrics on which it relies are the least reliable part of its equation -- in part because of sample size issues and in part because defense is so inherently difficult to measure statistically.

Don't you have to pay for programming ala carte with Roku?

Cholly is gone move on.

Chris Branch ‏@ChrisBranchTNJ 2m
Sandberg open to platooning Howard http://delonline.us/1bY0lIs

Henry Hill - Yes. You have to pay for anything you would have to pay for anyway. It just gives you access. I have Netflix and Amazon prime along with the MLB.TV via the internet. And I get to watch them all on a high quality 50 inch TV rather than on the internet.
But there are a bunch of free channels also. It's really no different than a smart TV with lots of internet apps. But the connection seems more stable and the MLB App on my TVs does not have the additional radio audio feed. So, I'm very happy with it.
I actually feel like I'm getting away with something by not having to listen to the TV crew. It's quite liberating.
The only thing it doesn't have is DLNA drive access. So, if you have a network drive with videos or music or movies that you want to access, you'll need a different device. But both of my tv's have that already so it wasn't necessary. And if that's not important to you, you can actually buy a pretty cheap high quality TV without internet and make it into a smart TV for a hundred dollars or less.

Like the idea of giving Dom a shot at center. Easier to read the ball off the bat than the corners and would take advantage of his arm. Opens up the possibility of dealing Revere and picking up a corner outfielder with pop. What could Revere bring in a trade? The Astros could use a center fielder so maybe r00b could deal Revere for Cosart.

No reaction to Sandberg's consideration of a Howard platoon?

What about to this?
Mandy Housenick ‏@inthephilshouse 3m
#PHILLIES FILES: Sandberg calls a Howard return "counterproductive" http://fb.me/13FbK3kii

In it, Sandberg also mentions getting to a "playing weight".

Howard was basically being platooned early this year, but the Phils rarely saw a LH starter for weeks.

No real news there. Howard can't hit lefties so it only makes sense to sit him against them as much as possible.

And Revere isn't going anywhere either. He's cheap and he actually can hit and steal bases. And he's under the age of 30. The OF is set for 2014, whether some of you like it or not. Brown, Revere and Ruf.

Next for Sandberg will be getting Howard out of the cleanup spot against lefties. Would've never happened with Cholly, .173 BA or not.

I'm actually digging Sandberg more and more.

"From here forward into the offseason I think he just needs to get in top baseball shape. He had a big injury and I don’t think he ever got into true baseball shape. He needs to get trimmed up to a playing weight that he can be productive at. Go ahead get him in baseball shape and be ready for first day of spring training ready to go."

http://www.csnphilly.com/baseball-philadelphia-phillies/sandberg-ryan-howard-shouldnt-rush-recovery


Here's a question for Rube. Why would the Phillies not have gone after Dice K? They are certainly in need of starting pitching. Lannan is gone. Halladay is likely done as a top flight pitcher. KK has been up and down this season. And Dice K has been very good over his last seven starts in the minors after TJ surgery.

Why would the Phillies not sign the guy up? If he stinks, then he's gone. If not, then you got something for nothing.

Oh, yeah. And Pettibone just had a setback, and he wasn't exactly lighting the world on fire anyway. Just another fifth starter.

I'm getting tired of Darin Ruf's whiffing on the inevitable two-streak breaking pitch. But I'm also getting used to Cody Asche being above the Martinez line.

Ruf should get better at laying off the breaking the ball. He has a good eye.

breaking ball*

Dice K is done. Sounds like a perfect Rooben pickup.

Pettibone had a very solid rookie year at a very young age. He showed before he was injured, he can be an effective back-end starter. Don't need anymore Lannan's and Dice Kay's, who aren't going to be any better, have no upside and will cost more money. The Phils have been buried because they had too many of these types on their roster to begin with.

I hope Bernadina impressed Ryno how he walked back to the dugout after that 'K'.

Here's hoping, Jake. At the very least he's markedly better than Howard in that department, as while he's going down too often on the slider low and away, he's rarely looking silly in the process.

Jake-

Its a fine line, but I almost think Ruf is too patient at times. He seems like he's in a 0-2, 1-2 hole a lot.

Its great he has a good eye. He is patient, which is tough to teach for a young power hitter. But at times, you have to cut it loose too...especially with ducks on the pond. Just part of the learning process in the big leagues and its great Ruf can have these 40 remaining games to refine that before we get to ST in 2014.

...did Michael Young just lay himself out and actually come up with the ball? I just rewatched it, and still don't believe I just saw that.

The end of days is truly upon us.

"Its a fine line, but I almost think Ruf is too patient at times."

I think so too. It's great that he's patient but he does seem to take an awful lot of called strike 1s right over the heart of the plate.

Strasburg pitching in the bottom of the 9th, 111 pitch-count, no CGSO on the line, gives up a game-tying HR. I think even Manuel would've pulled him earlier.

http://wapc.mlb.com/play?content_id=29948743

To be fair, he was ejected in the 2nd inning last time out so pushing him to 111 pitches isn' a huge deal really.

NEPP - This is the same pitcher who finished his first career CG 11 days ago.

In Davey's defense, that #Natitude pen has had a tough year.

I am already picturing Charlie managing the Natitudes next season. Closer to home for him. That franchise lives to stick it to Philly

Although I see what you mean. 111 pitches isn't very high in that context.

The shutout was on only 99 pitches...FWIW.

Galvis Would've Had That™.

Well done, J-Roll.

ruffy !!

I think Ruf's doing pretty well out there in RF.

All this kid does is get on base, hit HRs, and play every position on the field.

The Rockies' TV broadcast crew was almost priceless after Ruf's catch, as there was a second or two of just stunned silence that he'd made it. After four days in Philly, they'd clearly heard all there was to hear about his RF defense.

If loving Darin Ruf is wrong...I DON'T WANNA BE RIGHT!!!

I think it's time to DFA Bernadina.

ruf handled that outside pitch just the way sarge suggested yesterday, when he rotated his hips too soon trying to pull. sarge said he needs to hit the outside pitch to left. and it almost went out. good sign.

I think they should wait until the 8th inning at least, BAP.

our 8,9,1,2 is a black hole.

Rollins batting .157 in August.

Pathetic.

"Rollins batting .157 in August."

And Michael Young .167.

Good thing we have their veteran leadership in the locker room and on the field.

is arenado fast? from the replay it looked like DOM played that perfectly. Maybe just a tad slow on the transfer to throwing hand.

It would be interesting to get Sandberg's candid opinion on JRoll and M. Young including their effort & attitude since the ASB.

I would bet it would be very positive or paint either guy in a good light.

Do we really want to pay Kyle Kendrick $6M next year?

i think his arb estimates are over $7m

Probably be closer to $7-8 million, bap.

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